The Health Equity and Effectiveness of Policy Options to Reduce Dietary Salt Intake in England: Policy Forecast

BackgroundPublic health action to reduce dietary salt intake has driven substantial reductions in coronary heart disease (CHD) over the past decade, but avoidable socio-economic differentials remain. We therefore forecast how further intervention to reduce dietary salt intake might affect the overall level and inequality of CHD mortality.MethodsWe considered English adults, with socio-economic circumstances (SEC) stratified by quintiles of the Index of Multiple Deprivation. We used IMPACT_SEC, a validated CHD policy model, to link policy implementation to salt intake, systolic blood pressure and CHD mortality. We forecast the effects of mandatory and voluntary product reformulation, nutrition labelling and social marketing (e.g., health promotion, education). To inform our forecasts, we elicited experts’ predictions on further policy implementation up to 2020. We then modelled the effects on CHD mortality up to 2025 and simultaneously assessed the socio-economic differentials of effect.ResultsMandatory reformulation might prevent or postpone 4,500 (2,900–6,100) CHD deaths in total, with the effect greater by 500 (300–700) deaths or 85% in the most deprived than in the most affluent. Further voluntary reformulation was predicted to be less effective and inequality-reducing, preventing or postponing 1,500 (200–5,000) CHD deaths in total, with the effect greater by 100 (−100–600) deaths or 49% in the most deprived than in the most affluent. Further social marketing and improvements to labelling might each prevent or postpone 400–500 CHD deaths, but minimally affect inequality.ConclusionsMandatory engagement with industry to limit salt in processed-foods appears a promising and inequality-reducing option. For other policy options, our expert-driven forecast warns that future policy implementation might reach more deprived individuals less well, limiting inequality reduction. We therefore encourage planners to prioritise equity.     

The Global Burden of Mental,Neurological and Substance Use Disorders: An Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BackgroundThe Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), estimated that a substantial proportion of the world’s disease burden came from mental, neurological and substance use disorders. In this paper, we used GBD 2010 data to investigate time, year, region and age specific trends in burden due to mental, neurological and substance use disorders.MethodFor each disorder, prevalence data were assembled from systematic literature reviews. DisMod-MR, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was used to model prevalence by country, region, age, sex and year. Prevalence data were combined with disability weights derived from survey data to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years lost to premature mortality (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths occurring as a result of a given disorder by the reference standard life expectancy at the age death occurred. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were computed as the sum of YLDs and YLLs.ResultsIn 2010, mental, neurological and substance use disorders accounted for 10.4% of global DALYs, 2.3% of global YLLs and, 28.5% of global YLDs, making them the leading cause of YLDs. Mental disorders accounted for the largest proportion of DALYs (56.7%), followed by neurological disorders (28.6%) and substance use disorders (14.7%). DALYs peaked in early adulthood for mental and substance use disorders but were more consistent across age for neurological disorders. Females accounted for more DALYs in all mental and neurological disorders, except for mental disorders occurring in childhood, schizophrenia, substance use disorders, Parkinson’s disease and epilepsy where males accounted for more DALYs. Overall DALYs were highest in Eastern Europe/Central Asia and lowest in East Asia/the Pacific.ConclusionMental, neurological and substance use disorders contribute to a significant proportion of disease burden. Health systems can respond by implementing established, cost effective interventions, or by supporting the research necessary to develop better prevention and treatment options.     

Concerted Efforts to Control or Eliminate Neglected Tropical Diseases: How Much Health Will Be Gained?

Background

The London Declaration (2012) was formulated to support and focus the control and elimination of ten neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), with targets for 2020 as formulated by the WHO Roadmap. Five NTDs (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths and trachoma) are to be controlled by preventive chemotherapy (PCT), and four (Chagas’ disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy and visceral leishmaniasis) by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM). Guinea worm, virtually eradicated, is not considered here. We aim to estimate the global health impact of meeting these targets in terms of averted morbidity, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs).

Methods

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study provides prevalence and burden estimates for all nine NTDs in 1990 and 2010, by country, age and sex, which were taken as the basis for our calculations. Estimates for other years were obtained by interpolating between 1990 (or the start-year of large-scale control efforts) and 2010, and further extrapolating until 2030, such that the 2020 targets were met. The NTD disease manifestations considered in the GBD study were analyzed as either reversible or irreversible. Health impacts were assessed by comparing the results of achieving the targets with the counterfactual, construed as the health burden had the 1990 (or 2010 if higher) situation continued unabated.

Principle Findings/Conclusions

Our calculations show that meeting the targets will lead to about 600 million averted DALYs in the period 2011–2030, nearly equally distributed between PCT and IDM-NTDs, with the health gain amongst PCT-NTDs mostly (96%) due to averted disability and amongst IDM-NTDs largely (95%) from averted mortality. These health gains include about 150 million averted irreversible disease manifestations (e.g. blindness) and 5 million averted deaths. Control of soil-transmitted helminths accounts for one third of all averted DALYs. We conclude that the projected health impact of the London Declaration justifies the required efforts.     

Prevention of violence against women and girls: A cost-effectiveness study across 6 low- and middle-income countries

BackgroundViolence against women and girls (VAWG) is a human rights violation with social, economic, and health consequences for survivors, perpetrators, and society. Robust evidence on economic, social, and health impact, plus the cost of delivery of VAWG prevention, is critical to making the case for investment, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where health sector resources are highly constrained. We report on the costs and health impact of VAWG prevention in 6 countries.Methods and findingsWe conducted a trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis of VAWG prevention interventions using primary data from 5 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in sub-Saharan Africa and 1 in South Asia. We evaluated 2 school-based interventions aimed at adolescents (11 to 14 years old) and 2 workshop-based (small group or one to one) interventions, 1 community-based intervention, and 1 combined small group and community-based programme all aimed at adult men and women (18+ years old). All interventions were delivered between 2015 and 2018 and were compared to a do-nothing scenario, except for one of the school-based interventions (government-mandated programme) and for the combined intervention (access to financial services in small groups). We computed the health burden from VAWG with disability-adjusted life year (DALY). We estimated per capita DALYs averted using statistical models that reflect each trial’s design and any baseline imbalances. We report cost-effectiveness as cost per DALY averted and characterise uncertainty in the estimates with probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs), which show the probability of cost-effectiveness at different thresholds. We report a subgroup analysis of the small group component of the combined intervention and no other subgroup analysis. We also report an impact inventory to illustrate interventions’ socioeconomic impact beyond health. We use a 3% discount rate for investment costs and a 1-year time horizon, assuming no effects post the intervention period. From a health sector perspective, the cost per DALY averted varies between US$222 (2018), for an established gender attitudes and harmful social norms change community-based intervention in Ghana, to US$17,548 (2018) for a livelihoods intervention in South Africa. Taking a societal perspective and including wider economic impact improves the cost-effectiveness of some interventions but reduces others. For example, interventions with positive economic impacts, often those with explicit economic goals, offset implementation costs and achieve more favourable cost-effectiveness ratios. Results are robust to sensitivity analyses. Our DALYs include a subset of the health consequences of VAWG exposure; we assume no mortality impact from any of the health consequences included in the DALYs calculations. In both cases, we may be underestimating overall health impact. We also do not report on participants’ health costs.ConclusionsWe demonstrate that investment in established community-based VAWG prevention interventions can improve population health in LMICs, even within highly constrained health budgets. However, several VAWG prevention interventions require further modification to achieve affordability and cost-effectiveness at scale. Broadening the range of social, health, and economic outcomes captured in future cost-effectiveness assessments remains critical to justifying the investment urgently required to prevent VAWG globally.

In a cost-effectiveness study, Dr. Giulia Ferrari and colleagues examine the costs and health impact of prevention of violence against women and girls in six low- and middle-income countries.     

Niger’s Child Survival Success,Contributing Factors and Challenges to Sustainability: A Retrospective Analysis

BackgroundHousehold surveys undertaken in Niger since 1998 have revealed steady declines in under-5 mortality which have placed the country ‘on track’ to reach the fourth Millennium Development goal (MDG). This paper explores Niger’s mortality and health coverage data for children under-5 years of age up to 2012 to describe trends in high impact interventions and the resulting impact on childhood deaths averted. The sustainability of these trends are also considered.ConclusionIncreases in access and coverage of care for mothers and children have averted a considerable number of childhood deaths. The 2006 free health care policy and health post expansion were paramount in reducing barriers to care. However the sustainability of this policy and health service provision is precarious in light of persistently high fertility rates, unpredictable GDP growth, a high dependence on donor support and increasing pressures on government funding.     

The burden of zoonoses in Paraguay: A systematic review

IntroductionUnderestimation of zoonoses is exacerbated in low and middle-income countries due mainly to inequalities with serious consequences in healthcare. This is difficult to gauge and reduce the impact of those diseases. Our study focuses on Paraguay, where the livestock industry is one of the major components of the country’s economy. Therefore, the rationale of this study was to develop a case study in Paraguay to estimate the dual impact of zoonotic diseases on both the human health and animal health sector and thus determine the societal burden of such diseases.Methodology/Principal findingsWe conducted a systemic review (including a meta-analysis) to assess the burden of zoonoses in Paraguay, including official reports and grey literature of disease incidence and prevalence. We estimated the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and Zoonosis Disability Adjusted Life Years (zDALYs) to measure the difference between the current health status and the desired health situation of animals and the Paraguayan population based on 50 zoonotic diseases suggested by the WHO (World Health Organization), OIE (World Organization for Animal Health) and the National Health in Paraguay. The total DALYs represent 19,384 (95% CI: from 15,805 to 29,733), and zDALYs, 62,178 (95% CI: from 48,696 to 77,188). According to the results, the priority pathogens for DALYs are E. coli, Trypanosoma cruzi, Leishmania spp, and Toxoplasma gondii. When we include the additional animal health burden, the most important pathogens are Brucella spp, E. coli, Trypanosoma cruzi, and Fasciola hepatica for zDALYs.Conclusion/SignificanceThis is the first study to integrate DALYs and zDALYs with important clues related to the health status of Paraguay. Through DALYs and zDALYs, our perspective becomes more complete because we consider not only human health but also animal health. This is important for setting priorities in disease control, especially in a society where livestock contribute significantly to the economy and to human well-being.     

The Potential Wind Power Resource in Australia: A New Perspective

Australia’s wind resource is considered to be very good, and the utilization of this renewable energy resource is increasing rapidly: wind power installed capacity increased by 35% from 2006 to 2011 and is predicted to account for over 12% of Australia’s electricity generation in 2030. Due to this growth in the utilization of the wind resource and the increasing importance of wind power in Australia’s energy mix, this study sets out to analyze and interpret the nature of Australia’s wind resources using robust metrics of the abundance, variability and intermittency of wind power density, and analyzes the variation of these characteristics with current and potential wind turbine hub heights. We also assess the extent to which wind intermittency, on hourly or greater timescales, can potentially be mitigated by the aggregation of geographically dispersed wind farms, and in so doing, lessen the severe impact on wind power economic viability of long lulls in wind and power generated. Our results suggest that over much of Australia, areas that have high wind intermittency coincide with large expanses in which the aggregation of turbine output does not mitigate variability. These areas are also geographically remote, some are disconnected from the east coast’s electricity grid and large population centers, which are factors that could decrease the potential economic viability of wind farms in these locations. However, on the eastern seaboard, even though the wind resource is weaker, it is less variable, much closer to large population centers, and there exists more potential to mitigate it’s intermittency through aggregation. This study forms a necessary precursor to the analysis of the impact of large-scale circulations and oscillations on the wind resource at the mesoscale.     

Left Ventricular Global Longitudinal Strain (GLS) Is a Superior Predictor of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality When Compared to Ejection Fraction in Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease

BackgroundEchocardiographic global longitudinal strain (GLS) is increasingly recognised as a more effective technique than conventional ejection fraction (EF) in detecting subtle changes in left ventricular (LV) function. This study investigated the prognostic value of GLS over EF in patients with advanced Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD).MethodsThe study included 183 patients (57% male, 63% on dialysis) with CKD stage 4, 5 and 5Dialysis (D). 112 (61%) of patients died in a follow up of 7.8 ± 4.4 years and 41% of deaths were due to cardiovascular (CV) disease. GLS was calculated using 2-dimensional speckle tracking and EF was measured using Simpson’s biplane method. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the association of measures of LV function and all- cause and CV mortality.ResultsThe mean GLS at baseline was -13.6 ± 4.3% and EF was 45 ± 11%. GLS was a significant predictor of all-cause [Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.09 95%; Confidence Interval (CI) 1.02–1.16; p = 0.01] and CV mortality (HR 1.16 95%; CI 1.04–1.30; p = 0.008) following adjustment for relevant clinical variables including LV mass index (LVMI) and EF. GLS also had greater predictive power for both all- cause and CV mortality compared to EF. Impaired GLS (>-16%) was associated with a 5.6-fold increased unadjusted risk of CV mortality in patients with preserved EF.ConclusionsIn this cohort of patients with advanced CKD, GLS is a more sensitive predictor of overall and CV mortality compared to EF. Studies of larger populations in CKD are required to confirm that GLS provides additive prognostic value in patients with preserved EF.     

Prevention and control of dengue and chikungunya in Colombia: A cost-effectiveness analysis

BackgroundChikungunya and dengue are emerging diseases that have caused large outbreaks in various regions of the world. Both are both spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitos. We developed a dynamic transmission model of chikungunya and dengue, calibrated to data from Colombia (June 2014 –December 2017).Methodology/Principal findingsWe evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of residual insecticide treatment, long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, routine dengue vaccination for children aged 9, catchup vaccination for individuals aged 10–19 or 10–29, and portfolios of these interventions. Model calibration resulted in 300 realistic transmission parameters sets that produced close matches to disease-specific incidence and deaths. Insecticide was the preferred intervention and was cost-effective. Insecticide averted an estimated 95 chikungunya cases and 114 dengue cases per 100,000 people, 61 deaths, and 4,523 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). In sensitivity analysis, strategies that included dengue vaccination were cost-effective only when the vaccine cost was 14% of the current price.Conclusions/SignificanceInsecticide to prevent chikungunya and dengue in Colombia could generate significant health benefits and be cost-effective. Because of limits on diagnostic accuracy and vaccine efficacy, the cost of dengue testing and vaccination must decrease dramatically for such vaccination to be cost-effective in Colombia. The vectors for chikungunya and dengue have recently spread to new regions, highlighting the importance of understanding the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of policies aimed at preventing these diseases.     

The Perspectives of Patients on Health-Care for Co-Morbid Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease: A Qualitative Study

Background

Multi-morbidity due to diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains challenging for current health-systems, which focus on single diseases. As a first step toward health-care improvement, we explored the perspectives of patients and their carers on factors influencing the health-care of those with co-morbid diabetes and CKD.

Methods

In this qualitative study participants with co-morbid diabetes and CKD were purposively recruited using maximal variation sampling from 4 major tertiary health-services from 2 of Australia’s largest cities. Separate focus groups were conducted for patients with CKD stages 3, 4 and 5. Findings were triangulated with semi-structured interviews of carers of patients. Discussions were transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed.

Results

Twelve focus groups with 58 participants and 8 semi-structured interviews of carers were conducted. Factors influencing health-care of co-morbid diabetes and CKD grouped into patient and health service level factors. Key patient level factors identified were patient self-management, socio-economic situation, and adverse experiences related to co-morbid diabetes and CKD and its treatment. Key health service level factors were prevention and awareness of co-morbid diabetes and CKD, poor continuity and coordination of care, patient and carer empowerment, access and poor recognition of psychological co-morbidity. Health-service level factors varied according to CKD stage with poor continuity and coordination of care and patient and carer empowerment emphasized by participants with CKD stage 4 and 5, and access and poor recognition of psychological co-morbidity emphasised by participants with CKD stage 5 and carers.

Conclusions

According to patients and their carers the health-care of co-morbid diabetes and CKD may be improved via a preventive, patient-centred health-care model which promotes self-management and that has good access, continuity and coordination of care and identifies and manages psychological morbidity.     

Economic and disease burden of Japanese encephalitis in Zhejiang Province, 2013–2018

BackgroundJapanese encephalitis (JE) is a mosquito-borne disease and associated with high mortality and disability rate among symptomatic cases. In the absence of local data, this study estimated the economic burden and the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to JE in Zhejiang Province, China during 2013–2018, to increase disease awareness and provide evidence for effective health policy.Methodology/Principle findingsWe merged multiple data sources, including National Notifiable Disease Registry System (NNDRS), patient interviews and medical records from corresponding hospitals for JE cases which occurred during 2013–2018 in Zhejiang Province. Direct costs were extracted from hospitals’ billing systems and patient interviews. Indirect costs and disease burden were calculated based on questionnaire survey from patient interviews and follow-up assessment by general practitioners. Given under-reporting, an expansion factor (EF) was applied to extrapolate the JE burden to the provincial level. The total economic burden of JE during 2013–2018 was estimated at US $12.01 million with an EF = 3. Of this, $8.32 million was due to direct economic cost and $3.69 million to indirect cost. The disease burden of JE was 42.75 DALYs per million population (28.44 YLD, 14.28 YLL) according to the 1990 Global Burden of Disease (GBD 1990) methodology and 80.01 DALYs (53.67YLD, 26.34YLL) according to the GBD 2010 methodology. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the overall economic burden varied from US$ 1.73–36.42 million. The greatest variation was due to the prognosis of illness (-85.57%-203.17%), followed by occupation (-34.07%-134.12%) and age (-72.97%-47.69%).Conclusions/SignificanceJE imposes a heavy burden for families and society in Zhejiang Province. This study provides comprehensive empirical estimates of JE burden to increase awareness and strengthen knowledge of the public. These data may support provincial level public health decision making for prevention and control of JE. Ongoing surveillance for acute meningitis and encephalitis syndrome (AEMS) in sentinel hospitals, is needed to further refine estimates of JE burden.     

Antenatal Syphilis Screening Using Point-Of-Care Testing in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in Asia and Latin America: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BackgroundUntreated syphilis in pregnancy is associated with adverse clinical outcomes to the infant. In low- and middle-income countries in Asia and Latin America, 20%-30% of women are not tested for syphilis during pregnancy. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of increasing the coverage for antenatal syphilis screening in 11 Asian and 20 Latin American countries, using a point-of-care immunochromatographic strip (ICS) test.MethodsThe decision analytical cost-effectiveness models reported incremental costs per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted from the perspectives of the national health care payer. Clinical outcomes were stillbirths, neonatal deaths, and congenital syphilis. DALYs were computed using WHO disability weights. Costs included the ICS test, three injections of benzathine penicillin, and nurse wages. Country-specific inputs included the antenatal prevalence of syphilis and the proportion of women in the antenatal care setting that are screened for syphilis infection as reported in the 2014 WHO baseline report on global sexually transmitted infection surveillance. Country-specific data on the annual number of live births, proportion of women with at least one antenatal care visit, and per capita gross national income were also included in the model.ResultsThe incremental cost/DALY averted of syphilis screening is US$53 (range: US$10-US$332; Prob<1*per capita GDP=99.71%) in Asia and US$60 (range: US$5-US$225; Prob<1*per capita GDP=99.77%) in Latin America. Universal screening may reduce the annual number of stillbirths by 20,344 and 4,270, neonatal deaths by 8,201 and 1,721, cases of congenital syphilis by 10,952 and 2,298, and avert 925,039 and 197,454 DALYs in the aggregate Asian and Latin American panel, respectively.ConclusionAntenatal syphilis screening is highly cost-effective in all the 11 Asian and 20 Latin American countries assessed. Our findings support the decision to expand syphilis screening in countries with currently low screening rates or continue national syphilis screening programs in countries with high rates.     

Scaling up target regimens for tuberculosis preventive treatment in Brazil and South Africa: An analysis of costs and cost-effectiveness

BackgroundShorter, safer, and cheaper tuberculosis (TB) preventive treatment (TPT) regimens will enhance uptake and effectiveness. WHO developed target product profiles describing minimum requirements and optimal targets for key attributes of novel TPT regimens. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis addressing the scale-up of regimens meeting these criteria in Brazil, a setting with relatively low transmission and low HIV and rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB) prevalence, and South Africa, a setting with higher transmission and higher HIV and RR-TB prevalence.Methods and findingsWe used outputs from a model simulating scale-up of TPT regimens meeting minimal and optimal criteria. We assumed that drug costs for minimal and optimal regimens were identical to 6 months of daily isoniazid (6H). The minimal regimen lasted 3 months, with 70% completion and 80% efficacy; the optimal regimen lasted 1 month, with 90% completion and 100% efficacy. Target groups were people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral treatment and household contacts (HHCs) of identified TB patients. The status quo was 6H at 2019 coverage levels for PLHIV and HHCs. We projected TB cases and deaths, TB-associated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and costs (in 2020 US dollars) associated with TB from a TB services perspective from 2020 to 2035, with 3% annual discounting. We estimated the expected costs and outcomes of scaling up 6H, the minimal TPT regimen, or the optimal TPT regimen to reach all eligible PLHIV and HHCs by 2023, compared to the status quo. Maintaining current 6H coverage in Brazil (0% of HHCs and 30% of PLHIV treated) would be associated with 1.1 (95% uncertainty range [UR] 1.1–1.2) million TB cases, 123,000 (115,000–132,000) deaths, and 2.5 (2.1–3.1) million DALYs and would cost $1.1 ($1.0–$1.3) billion during 2020–2035. Expanding the 6H, minimal, or optimal regimen to 100% coverage among eligible groups would reduce DALYs by 0.5% (95% UR 1.2% reduction, 0.4% increase), 2.5% (1.8%–3.0%), and 9.0% (6.5%–11.0%), respectively, with additional costs of $107 ($95–$117) million and $51 ($41–$60) million and savings of $36 ($14–$58) million, respectively. Compared to the status quo, costs per DALY averted were $7,608 and $808 for scaling up the 6H and minimal regimens, respectively, while the optimal regimen was dominant (cost savings, reduced DALYs). In South Africa, maintaining current 6H coverage (0% of HHCs and 69% of PLHIV treated) would be associated with 3.6 (95% UR 3.0–4.3) million TB cases, 843,000 (598,000–1,201,000) deaths, and 36.7 (19.5–58.0) million DALYs and would cost $2.5 ($1.8–$3.6) billion. Expanding coverage with the 6H, minimal, or optimal regimen would reduce DALYs by 6.9% (95% UR 4.3%–95%), 15.5% (11.8%–18.9%), and 38.0% (32.7%–43.0%), respectively, with additional costs of $79 (−$7, $151) million and $40 (−$52, $140) million and savings of $608 ($443–$832) million, respectively. Compared to the status quo, estimated costs per DALY averted were $31 and $7 for scaling up the 6H and minimal regimens, while the optimal regimen was dominant. Study limitations included the focus on 2 countries, and no explicit consideration of costs incurred before the decision to prescribe TPT.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that scale-up of TPT regimens meeting minimum or optimal requirements would likely have important impacts on TB-associated outcomes and would likely be cost-effective or cost saving.

Placide Nsengiyumva and colleagues analyze costs and cost-effectiveness of scaling up target regimens for Tuberculosis Preventive Treatment among persons living with HIV and household contacts of TB patients in Brazil and South Africa.     

Exploration of Chronic Kidney Disease Prevalence Estimates Using New Measures of Kidney Function in the Health Survey for England

BackgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) diagnosis relies on glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) estimation, traditionally using the creatinine-based Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKDEPI) equation performs better in estimating eGFR and predicting mortality and CKD progression risk. Cystatin C is an alternative glomerular filtration marker less influenced by muscle mass. CKD risk stratification is improved by combining creatinine eGFR with cystatin C and urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (uACR). We aimed to identify the impact of introducing CKDEPI and cystatin C on the estimated prevalence and risk stratification of CKD in England and to describe prevalence and associations of cystatin C.LimitationsCross sectional study, single eGFR measure, no measured (‘true’) GFR.ConclusionsIntroducing the CKDEPI equation and targeted cystatin C measurement reduces estimated CKD prevalence and improves risk stratification.     

Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030

BackgroundUNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets.Methods and findingsWe simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19–related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections.ConclusionsThe new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.

John Stover and co-workers assess the potential health impacts of UNAIDS’ HIV/AIDS targets.     

Sporadic outbreaks of crimean-congo haemorrhagic fever in Uganda,July 2018-January 2019

IntroductionCrimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne, zoonotic viral disease that causes haemorrhagic symptoms. Despite having eight confirmed outbreaks between 2013 and 2017, all within Uganda’s ‘cattle corridor’, no targeted tick control programs exist in Uganda to prevent disease. During a seven-month-period from July 2018-January 2019, the Ministry of Health confirmed multiple independent CCHF outbreaks. We investigated to identify risk factors and recommend interventions to prevent future outbreaks.MethodsWe defined a confirmed case as sudden onset of fever (≥37.5°C) with ≥4 of the following signs and symptoms: anorexia, vomiting, diarrhoea, headache, abdominal pain, joint pain, or sudden unexplained bleeding in a resident of the affected districts who tested positive for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFv) by RT-PCR from 1 July 2018–30 January 2019. We reviewed medical records and performed active case-finding. We conducted a case-control study and compared exposures of case-patients with age-, sex-, and sub-county-matched control-persons (1:4).ResultsWe identified 14 confirmed cases (64% males) with five deaths (case-fatality rate: 36%) from 11 districts in western and central region. Of these, eight (73%) case-patients resided in Uganda’s ‘cattle corridor’. One outbreak involved two case-patients and the remainder involved one. All case-patients had fever and 93% had unexplained bleeding. Case-patients were aged 6–36 years, with persons aged 20–44 years more affected (AR: 7.2/1,000,000) than persons ≤19 years (2.0/1,000,000), p = 0.015. Most (93%) case-patients had contact with livestock ≤2 weeks before symptom onset. Twelve (86%) lived <1 km from grazing fields compared with 27 (48%) controls (OR_M-H = 18, 95% CI = 3.2-∞) and 10 (71%) of 14 case-patients found ticks attached to their bodies ≤2 weeks before symptom onset, compared to 15 (27%) of 56 control-persons (OR_M-H = 9.3, 95%CI = 1.9–46).ConclusionsCCHF outbreaks occurred sporadically during 2018–2019, both within and outside ‘cattle corridor’ districts of Uganda. Most cases were associated with tick exposure. The Ministry of Health should partner with the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries to develop joint nationwide tick control programs and strategies with shared responsibilities through a One Health approach.     

Relationship Between IL-2, IL-17 Concentrations,and Serum Creatinine Levels in Men with Chronic Kidney Diseases

Background:Chronic kidney disease (CKD), is a major public health challenge worldwide. It is more prevalent in developed countries compared with the rest of the world, due to the higher rates of life expectancy and unhealthy lifestyle related factors. This aim of the current study is to evaluate the relationship between interleukins IL-2 and IL-17 concentrations and kidney function markers in men with CKD.Methods:Forty-five men with CKD and seventy controls were enrolled in the current study to assess the relationship between interleukin-2 (IL-2), interleukin-17 (IL-17), and CKD parameters. Fasting blood samples were collected from patients with CKD and their controls at same time. Serum IL-2, and IL-17 were measured in patients with CKD and their controls, and then the relationship between these interleukins and serum creatinine, serum urea, serum uric acid and urine albumin were evaluated.Results:A significant relationship was detected between IL-2 (p< 0.001), IL-17 (p< 0.001) levels and serum creatinine concentrations. The significant increase of IL-2 and IL-17 levels were also paralleled with a significant increase in serum urea (p< 0.001), and urine albumin (p< 0.001) concentrations respectively.Conclusion:IL-2 and IL-17 may play a critical role in the pathophysiology of CKD. The significant increase of IL-2 and IL-17 is associated with significantly high concentrations of creatinine, serum urea and urine albumin suggesting that these interleukins may be used as targets for future biomarkers and molecular therapy. However, due to limited sample size of the current study, larger prospective cohorts are needed to confirm these observations.Key Words: Chronic kidney disease, Interleukins, Serum creatinine, Serum urea, Urine albumin     

Noncommunicable disease outcomes and the effects of vertical and horizontal health aid

Foreign health aid forms a substantial portion of health spending in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). It can be either vertical (funds earmarked for specific diseases) or horizontal (funds used for broad health sector strengthening). Historically, most health aid has been disbursed vertically toward key infectious diseases, with minimal allocations to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). High NCD burden in LMICs underscores a need for increased assistance toward NCD objectives, but evidence on the outcomes of health aid for NCDs is sparse. We obtained annual data on cause-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for four leading NCDs across 116 countries, 2000–2016, and evaluated the relationship between these indicators and vertical and horizontal health aid using country fixed-effects models with 1-to-5-year lagged effects. After adjusting for fixed and time-variant country heterogeneity, vertical assistance for NCDs was significantly associated with subsequent reductions in NCD morbidity and mortality, particularly for persons under age 70 and for cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases. An additional dollar in per-capita NCD vertical assistance corresponded to reductions in the average annual NCD burden of 7,459 DALYs/281 deaths after one year, 7,728 DALYs/319 deaths after two years, and 8,957 DALYs/346 deaths after three years. The findings suggest that vertical assistance for NCD programs may be an appropriate mechanism for addressing short-term NCD needs in LMICs, where it may help to fill health sector gaps in NCD care, but longer-term evaluation is needed for assessing the role of horizontal assistance.     

Jian-Pi-Yi-Shen formula enhances perindopril inhibition of chronic kidney disease progression by activation of SIRT3, modulation of mitochondrial dynamics,and antioxidant effects

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global public health problem. Renin–angiotensin system (RAS) blockade is the mainstay of CKD therapy with limitations. Jian-Pi-Yi-Shen formula (JPYSF) is a traditional herbal decoction and has been used for treating CKD for decades. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the intervention effects of combined used of perindopril erbumine (PE) and JPYSF on CKD progression and explore their underlying mechanisms. CKD rat model was induced by feeding a diet containing 0.75% w/w adenine for 3 weeks. CKD rats were treated with PE or JPYSF or PE+JPYSF from the induction of CKD and lasted 4 weeks. Renal function was evaluated by serum creatinine (Scr) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). Pathological lesions were observed by Periodic acid–Schiff (PAS) and Masson’s trichrome staining. The protein expression was tested by Western blot and immunohistochemistry analysis. The morphology of mitochondria was observed by transmission electron microscope. The results showed that combined used of PE and JPYSF could better improve renal function and pathological lesions and ameliorate renal fibrosis in CKD rats. Administration of PE and JPYSF enhanced sirtuin 3 (SIRT3) expression, inhibited mitochondrial fission, promoted mitochondrial fusion, and suppressed oxidative stress in the kidney of CKD rats. In conclusion, combined use of PE and JPYSF protected against CKD more effectively than either alone. The underlying mechanism may be associated with activation of SIRT3, modulation of mitochondrial dynamics, and antioxidant effects.     

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Hepatitis B Vaccination Strategies to Prevent Perinatal Transmission in North Korea: Selective Vaccination vs. Universal Vaccination

BackgroundTo tackle the high prevalence of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in North Korea, it is essential that birth doses of HBV vaccines should be administered within 24 hours of birth. As the country fails to provide a Timely Birth Dose (TBD) of HBV vaccine, the efforts of reducing the high prevalence of HBV have been significantly hampered.MethodsTo examine the cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies to prevent perinatal transmission of HBV in North Korea, we established a decision tree with a Markov model consisting of selective, universal, and the country’s current vaccination program against HBV. The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from societal and payer’s perspectives and evaluated by Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY).ResultsThe results suggest that introducing the universal vaccination would prevent 1,866 cases of perinatal infections per 100,000 of the birth cohort of 2013. Furthermore, 900 cases of perinatal infections per 100,000 could be additionally averted if switching to the selective vaccination. The current vaccination is a dominated strategy both from the societal and payer’s perspective. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) between universal and selective vaccination is $267 from the societal perspective and is reported as $273 from the payer’s perspective.ConclusionBased on the assumption that the 2012 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in North Korea, $582.6 was set for cost-effectiveness criteria, the result of this study indicates that selective vaccination may be a highly cost-effective strategy compared to universal vaccination.