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1.
S Batra  A Ayaz  A Murtaza  S Ahmad  R Hasan  R Pfau 《PloS one》2012,7(7):e40880

Introduction

Childhood tuberculosis (TB), although estimated to account for a major proportion of the global TB disease burden, has a lower public health priority. Reliable research and surveillance data on childhood TB is limited in most regions of the world. This study was conducted to assess the burden of childhood TB among the household contacts of new TB patients in Karachi, Pakistan.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of children (<15 years) who were household contacts of new adult TB patients presenting to Marie Adelaide Leprosy Center (MALC) clinics in Karachi during the period of 2008 to 2010 was conducted.

Results

Of the household children contacts (n = 6613) screened, 317 were suspected and 121(1.8%) diagnosed with TB. These included 89 (73.6%) with pulmonary and 32 (26.4%) with extra-pulmonary disease. Smear positivity rate in pulmonary cases was 32.6%. Mean age of children diagnosed with TB was 11.7 (±2.8) years. Within the child-contacts screened, disease was found to be significantly higher among females (2.3%) in comparison to males (1.2%) (p-value <0.01). The commonest relationship of source cases to diagnosed children was the mother (n = 51, 42.1%). The source case was a female for 66.1% (n = 76) of the children.

Conclusion

A smear positivity rate of 32.6% amongst pulmonary cases suggests their potential to spread disease and emphasizes a need to review the contribution of children in transmission of TB within communities. Greater vulnerability of the female child and considerable role of mother in disease transmission highlights a need to increase focus on females in TB control programs in Pakistan.  相似文献   

2.

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem globally. Little is known about TB incidence in adolescents who are a proposed target group for new TB vaccines. We conducted a study to determine the TB incidence rates and risk factors for TB disease in a cohort of school-going adolescents in a high TB burden area in South Africa.

Methods

We recruited adolescents aged 12 to 18 years from high schools in Worcester, South Africa. Demographic and clinical information was collected, a tuberculin skin test (TST) performed and blood drawn for a QuantiFERON TB Gold assay at baseline. Screening for TB cases occurred at follow up visits and by surveillance of registers at public sector TB clinics over a period of up to 3.8 years after enrolment.

Results

A total of 6,363 adolescents were enrolled (58% of the school population targeted). During follow up, 67 cases of bacteriologically confirmed TB were detected giving an overall incidence rate of 0.45 per 100 person years (95% confidence interval 0.29–0.72). Black or mixed race, maternal education of primary school or less or unknown, a positive baseline QuantiFERON assay and a positive baseline TST were significant predictors of TB disease on adjusted analysis.

Conclusion

The adolescent TB incidence found in a high burden setting will help TB vaccine developers plan clinical trials in this population. Latent TB infection and low socio-economic status were predictors of TB disease.  相似文献   

3.

Background

Contact tracing, to identify source cases with untreated tuberculosis (TB), is rarely performed in high disease burden settings when the index case is a young child with TB. As TB is strongly associated with HIV infection in these settings, we used source case investigation to determine the prevalence of undiagnosed TB and HIV in the caregivers and household contacts of hospitalised young children diagnosed with TB in South Africa.

Methods

Caregivers and household contacts of 576 young children (age ≤7 years) with TB diagnosed between May 2010 and August 2012 were screened for TB and HIV. The primary outcome was the detection of laboratory-confirmed, newly-diagnosed TB disease and/or HIV-infection in close contacts.

Results

Of 576 caregivers, 301 (52·3%) self-reported HIV-positivity. Newly-diagnosed HIV infection was detected in 63 (22·9%) of the remaining 275 caregivers who self-reported an unknown or negative HIV status. Screening identified 133 (23·1%) caregivers eligible for immediate anti-retroviral therapy (ART). Newly-diagnosed TB disease was detected in 23 (4·0%) caregivers. In non-caregiver household contacts (n = 1341), the prevalence of newly-diagnosed HIV infection and TB disease was 10·0% and 3·2% respectively. On average, screening contacts of every nine children with TB resulted in the identification of one case of newly-diagnosed TB disease, three cases of newly diagnosed HIV-infection, and three HIV-infected persons eligible for ART.

Conclusion

In high burden countries, source case investigation yields high rates of previously undiagnosed HIV and TB infection in the close contacts of hospitalised young children diagnosed with TB. Furthermore, integrated screening identifies many individuals who are eligible for immediate ART. Similar studies, with costing analyses, should be undertaken in other high burden settings–integrated source case investigation for TB and HIV should be routinely undertaken if our findings are confirmed.  相似文献   

4.

Background

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity across all age groups throughout the world, especially in developing countries.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this study, we have included 432 open index cases with their 1608 household contacts in a prospective cohort study conducted from May 2007 to March 2009. The follow-up period was 2 years. All Index cases were diagnosed on the basis of suggestive signs and symptoms and sputum being AFB positive. Among the 432 index patients, 250 (57.9%) were males and 182 (42.1%) females; with mean age of 34±14.4 yr and 26±11.1 yr, respectively. Out of 1608 household contacts, 866 (53.9%) were males and 742 (46.1%) females; with mean age of 26.5±15.8 and 26.5±16.0 yr, respectively. Of the total 432 households, 304 (70.4%) had ≤4 members and 128 (29.6%) had ≥5 members. The median size of the family was four. Of the 1608 contacts, 1206 were able to provide sputum samples, of whom 83 (6.9%) were found MTB culture positive. Household contacts belonging to adult age group were predominantly (74, 89.2%) infected as compared to the children (9, 10.8%). On screening the contact relationship status with index patients, 52 (62.7%) were first-degree relatives, 18 (34.6%) second-degree relatives and 12 (14.5%) spouses who got infected from their respective index patients. Co-prevalent and incident tuberculosis was found in 52 (4.3%) and 31 (2.6%) contacts, respectively. In incident cases, the diagnosis could be made between 4 to 24 months of follow-up, after their baseline evaluation.

Conclusion

Active household contact investigation is a powerful tool to detect and treat tuberculosis at early stages and the only method to control TB in high-TB-burden countries.  相似文献   

5.
6.
The WHO recommends integrating interventions to address the devastating TB/HIV co-epidemics in South Africa, yet integration has been poorly implemented and TB/HIV control efforts need strengthening. Identifying infected individuals is particularly difficult in rural settings. We used mathematical modeling to predict the impact of community-based, integrated TB/HIV case finding and additional control strategies on South Africa’s TB/HIV epidemics. We developed a model incorporating TB and HIV transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of integrating TB and HIV interventions in rural South Africa over 10 years. We modeled the impact of a novel screening program that integrates case finding for TB and HIV in the community, comparing it to status quo and recommended TB/HIV control strategies, including GeneXpert, MDR-TB treatment decentralization, improved first-line TB treatment cure rate, isoniazid preventive therapy, and expanded ART. Combining recommended interventions averted 27% of expected TB cases (95% CI 18–40%) 18% HIV (95% CI 13–24%), 60% MDR-TB (95% CI 34–83%), 69% XDR-TB (95% CI 34–90%), and 16% TB/HIV deaths (95% CI 12–29). Supplementing these interventions with annual community-based TB/HIV case finding averted a further 17% of TB cases (44% total; 95% CI 31–56%), 5% HIV (23% total; 95% CI 17–29%), 8% MDR-TB (68% total; 95% CI 40–88%), 4% XDR-TB (73% total; 95% CI 38–91%), and 8% TB/HIV deaths (24% total; 95% CI 16–39%). In addition to increasing screening frequency, we found that improving TB symptom questionnaire sensitivity, second-line TB treatment delays, default before initiating TB treatment or ART, and second-line TB drug efficacy were significantly associated with even greater reductions in TB and HIV cases. TB/HIV epidemics in South Africa were most effectively curtailed by simultaneously implementing interventions that integrated community-based TB/HIV control strategies and targeted drug-resistant TB. Strengthening existing TB and HIV treatment programs is needed to further reduce disease incidence.  相似文献   

7.
We aimed to estimate the individual and joint impact of age, marital status and diagnosis with sexually transmitted infections (STIs) on HIV acquisition among young women at a population level in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 3,978 HIV seronegative women were recruited for four biomedical intervention trials from 2002–2009. Point and interval estimates of partial population attributable risk (PAR) were used to quantify the proportion of HIV seroconversions which can be prevented if a combination of risk factors is eliminated from a target population. More than 70% of the observed HIV acquisitions were collectively attributed to the three risk factors: younger age (<25 years old), unmarried and not cohabiting with a stable/regular partner and diagnosis with STIs. Addressing these risks requires targeted structural, behavioural, biomedical and cultural interventions in order to impact on unacceptably high HIV incidence rates among young women and the population as a whole.  相似文献   

8.

Objective

To improve the treatment of MDR-TB and HIV co-infected patients, we investigated the relationship between health system performance and patient treatment outcomes at 4 decentralised MDR-TB sites.

Methods

In this mixed methods case study which included prospective comparative data, we measured health system performance using a framework of domains comprising key health service components. Using Pearson Product Moment Correlation coefficients we quantified the direction and magnitude of the association between health system performance and MDR-TB treatment outcomes. Qualitative data from participant observation and interviews analysed using systematic text condensation (STC) complemented our quantitative findings.

Findings

We found significant differences in treatment outcomes across the sites with successful outcomes varying from 72% at Site 1 to 52% at Site 4 (p<0.01). Health systems performance scores also varied considerably across the sites. Our findings suggest there is a correlation between treatment outcomes and overall health system performance which is significant (r = 0.99, p<0.01), with Site 1 having the highest number of successful treatment outcomes and the highest health system performance. Although the ‘integration’ domain, which measured integration of MDR-TB services into existing services appeared to have the strongest association with successful treatment outcomes (r = 0.99, p<0.01), qualitative data indicated that the ‘context’ domain influenced the other domains.

Conclusion

We suggest that there is an association between treatment outcomes and health system performance. The chance of treatment success is greater if decentralised MDR-TB services are integrated into existing services. To optimise successful treatment outcomes, regular monitoring and support are needed at a district, facility and individual level to ensure the local context is supportive of new programmes and implementation is according to guidelines.  相似文献   

9.
BackgroundHIV and tuberculosis (TB) coinfection remains a major public health threat in sub-Saharan Africa. Integration and decentralization of HIV and TB treatment services are being implemented, but data on outcomes of this strategy are lacking in rural, resource-limited settings. We evaluated TB treatment outcomes in TB/HIV coinfected patients in an integrated and decentralized system in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.MethodsWe retrospectively studied a cohort of HIV/TB coinfected patients initiating treatment for drug-susceptible TB at a district hospital HIV clinic from January 2012-June 2013. Patients were eligible for down-referral to primary health clinics(PHCs) for TB treatment completion if they met specific clinical criteria. Records were reviewed for patients’ demographic, baseline clinical and laboratory information, past HIV and TB history, and TB treatment outcomes.ResultsOf 657(88.7%) patients, 322(49.0%) were female, 558(84.9%) were new TB cases, and 572(87.1%) had pulmonary TB. After TB treatment initiation, 280(42.6%) were down-referred from the district level HIV clinic to PHCs for treatment completion; 377(57.4%) remained at the district hospital. Retained patients possessed characteristics indicative of more severe disease. In total, 540(82.2%) patients experienced treatment success, 69(10.5%) died, and 46(7.0%) defaulted. Down-referred patients experienced higher treatment success, and lower mortality, but were more likely to default, primarily at the time of transfer to PHC.ConclusionDecentralization of TB treatment to the primary care level is feasible in rural South Africa. Treatment outcomes are favorable when patients are carefully chosen for down-referral. Higher mortality in retained patients reflects increased baseline disease severity while higher default among down-referred patients reflects failed linkage of care. Better linkage mechanisms are needed including improved identification of potential defaulters, increased patient education, active communication between hospitals and PHCs, and tracing of patients lost to follow up. Decentralized and integrated care is successful for carefully selected TB/HIV coinfected patients and should be expanded.  相似文献   

10.
11.

Background

Timely diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis (TB) and HIV is important to reduce morbidity and mortality, and break the cycle of ongoing transmission.

Methods

We performed an implementation research study to develop a model for systematic TB symptom screening and HIV counseling and testing (HCT) for all adult clients at a primary care clinic and prospectively evaluate the 6-month coverage and yield, and 18-month sustainability at a primary care clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Results

During the first 6 months, 26,515 visits occurred among 12,078 adults. The proportion of adults aware of their HIV status was 43.7% at the start of the first visit, increased to 84.6% at the end of the first visit, and to 90% at end of any visit during the first 6 months. During these 6 months, 1042 clients were newly diagnosed with HIV. HIV prevalence was 22.9% among those newly tested, and 58.9% among all adult clinic clients. High coverage of systematic HCT was sustained across all 18 months. Coverage of systematic HIV-stratified TB symptom screening during first 6-months was also high (89.6%) but only 35.0% of those symptomatic were screened by sputum. During these 6-months, 90 clients had a positive Xpert MTB/RIF assay, corresponding to a TB prevalence of 0.4% among all 23,534 clients TB symptom-screened and 2.8% among the 3,284 clients with a positive TB symptom screen. The initial high coverage of TB symptom screening was not sustained, with coverage of TB symptom screening dropping after the first six months to 70% and assessment by sputum dropping to 15%.

Conclusion

Routine, systematic HCT and HIV-stratified TB symptom screening is feasible at primary care level. Systematic HCT doubled the proportion of clients with known HIV status. While HCT was sustainable, coverage of systematic TB screening dropped significantly after the first 6 months of implementation.  相似文献   

12.

Background

Three national HIV household surveys were conducted in South Africa, in 2002, 2005 and 2008. A novelty of the 2008 survey was the addition of serological testing to ascertain antiretroviral treatment (ART) use.

Methods and Principal Findings

We used a validated mathematical method to estimate the rate of new HIV infections (HIV incidence) in South Africa using nationally representative HIV prevalence data collected in 2002, 2005 and 2008. The observed HIV prevalence levels in 2008 were adjusted for the effect of antiretroviral treatment on survival. The estimated “excess” HIV prevalence due to ART in 2008 was highest among women 25 years and older and among men 30 years and older. In the period 2002–2005, the HIV incidence rate among men and women aged 15–49 years was estimated to be 2.0 new infections each year per 100 susceptible individuals (/100pyar) (uncertainty range: 1.2–3.0/100pyar). The highest incidence rate was among 15–24 year-old women, at 5.5/100pyar (4.5–6.5). In the period 2005–2008, incidence among men and women aged 15–49 was estimated to be 1.3/100 (0.6–2.5/100pyar), although the change from 2002–2005 was not statistically significant. However, the incidence rate among young women aged 15–24 declined by 60% in the same period, to 2.2/100pyar, and this change was statistically significant. There is evidence from the surveys of significant increases in condom use and awareness of HIV status, especially among youth.

Conclusions

Our analysis demonstrates how serial measures of HIV prevalence obtained in population-based surveys can be used to estimate national HIV incidence rates. We also show the need to determine the impact of ART on observed HIV prevalence levels. The estimation of HIV incidence and ART exposure is crucial to disentangle the concurrent impact of prevention and treatment programs on HIV prevalence.  相似文献   

13.

Background

Filarial (and other helminth) infections are known to modulate mycobacteria-specific pro-inflammatory cytokine responses necessary for maintaining latency in tuberculosis (TB). We sought to address whether helminth co-infection alters progression to active pulmonary TB in a co-endemic area of South India.

Methods/Principal Findings

Incidence of active pulmonary TB was assessed in 5096 subjects from five villages among helminth-infected (hel+) and –uninfected (hel) groups. Baseline stool examinations, circulating filarial antigen, and tuberculin skin testing (PPD) were performed along with chest radiographs, sputum microscopy, and culture. During three follow-up visits each 2.5 years, patients were assessed using PPD tests and questionnaires and—for those with potential symptoms of TB—sputum microscopy and culture. Of the 5096 subjects, 1923 were found to be hel+ and 3173 were hel. Follow up interval stool examination could not be performed. In each group, 21 developed active TB over the course of the study. After adjusting for sex, age, BCG vaccination status, and PPD positivity, no difference was seen in active TB incidence between hel+ and hel groups either at baseline (relative risk (RR) 1.60; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69, 3.71, P = 0·27), or when followed prospectively (RR 1.24; 95% CI: 0.48, 3.18, P = 0·66).

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings suggest that, despite the immunomodulatory effects of helminth infection, baseline co-morbid infection with these parasites had little effect on the clinical progression from latent to active pulmonary TB.  相似文献   

14.

Background

HIV counseling and testing may serve as an entry point for non-communicable disease screening.

Objectives

To determine the yield of newly-diagnosed HIV, tuberculosis (TB) symptoms, diabetes and hypertension, and to assess CD4 count testing, linkage to care as well as correlates of linkage and barriers to care from a mobile testing unit.

Methods

A mobile unit provided screening for HIV, TB symptoms, diabetes and hypertension in Cape Town, South Africa between March 2010 and September 2011. The yield of newly-diagnosed cases of these conditions was measured and clients were followed-up between January and November 2011 to assess linkage. Linkage to care was defined as accessing care within one, three or six months post-HIV diagnosis (dependent on CD4 count) and one month post-diagnosis for other conditions. Clinical and socio-demographic correlates of linkage to care were evaluated using Poisson regression and barriers to care were determined.

Results

Of 9,806 clients screened, the yield of new diagnoses was: HIV (5.5%), TB suspects (10.1%), diabetes (0.8%) and hypertension (58.1%). Linkage to care for HIV-infected clients, TB suspects, diabetics and hypertensives was: 51.3%, 56.7%, 74.1% and 50.0%. Only disclosure of HIV-positive status to family members or partners (RR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.04-6.3, p=0.04) was independently associated with linkage to HIV care. The main barrier to care reported by all groups was lack of time to access a clinic.

Conclusion

Screening for HIV, TB symptoms and hypertension at mobile units in South Africa has a high yield but inadequate linkage. After-hours and weekend clinics may overcome a major barrier to accessing care.  相似文献   

15.
16.

Background

The annual risk of tuberculous infection (ARTI) is a key epidemiological indicator of the extent of transmission in a community. Several methods have been suggested to estimate the prevalence of tuberculous infection using tuberculin skin test data. This paper explores the implications of using different methods to estimate prevalence of infection and ARTI. The effect of BCG vaccination on these estimates is also investigated.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Tuberculin surveys among school children in 16 communities in Zambia and 8 in South Africa (SA) were performed in 2005, as part of baseline data collection and for randomisation purposes of the ZAMSTAR study. Infection prevalence and ARTI estimates were calculated using five methods: different cut-offs with or without adjustments for sensitivity, the mirror method, and mixture analysis. A total of 49,835 children were registered for the surveys, of which 25,048 (50%) had skin tests done and 22,563 (90%) of those tested were read. Infection prevalence was higher in the combined SA than Zambian communities. The mirror method resulted in the least difference of 7.8%, whereas that estimated by the cut-off methods varied from 12.2% to 17.3%. The ARTI in the Zambian and SA communities was between 0.8% and 2.8% and 2.5% and 4.2% respectively, depending on the method used. In the SA communities, the ARTI was higher among the younger children. BCG vaccination had little effect on these estimates.

Conclusions/Significance

ARTI estimates are dependent on the calculation method used. All methods agreed that there were substantial differences in infection prevalence across the communities, with higher rates in SA. Although TB notification rates have increased over the past decades, the difference in cumulative exposure between younger and older children is less dramatic and a rise in risk of infection in parallel with the estimated incidence of active tuberculosis cannot be excluded.  相似文献   

17.
We present a simple mathematical model with six compartments for the interaction between HIV and TB epidemics. Using data from a township near Cape Town, South Africa, where the prevalence of HIV is above 20% and where the TB notification rate is close to 2,000 per 100,000 per year, we estimate some of the model parameters and study how various control measures might change the course of these epidemics. Condom promotion, increased TB detection and TB preventive therapy have a clear positive effect. The impact of antiretroviral therapy on the incidence of HIV is unclear and depends on the extent to which it reduces sexual transmission. However, our analysis suggests that it will greatly reduce the TB notification rate.  相似文献   

18.

Background

Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.

Methods and Findings

Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.

Conclusions

Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary  相似文献   

19.

Background

Provider-initiated HIV testing and counselling (PITC) is internationally recommended for tuberculosis (TB) patients, but the feasibility, effectiveness, and impact of this policy on the TB programme in India are unknown. We evaluated PITC of TB patients across two districts in India considered to have generalized HIV epidemics, Tiruchirappalli (population 2.5 million) and Mysore (population 2.8 million).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Starting June 2007, healthcare providers in both districts were instructed to ascertain HIV status for all TB patients, and refer those with unknown HIV status to the nearest Integrated Counselling and Testing Centre (ICTC)—often in the same facility—for counselling and voluntary HIV testing. All TB patients registered from June 2007 to March 2008 were followed prospectively. Field investigators assessed PITC practices and abstracted data from routine TB programme records and HIV counselling registers to determine the proportion of TB patients appropriately evaluated for HIV infection. Patient records were traced to determine the efficiency of referral links to HIV care and antiretroviral treatment (ART). Between July 2007 and March 2008, 5299 TB patients were registered in both study districts. Of the 4701 with unknown HIV status at the time of TB treatment initiation, 3368 (72%) were referred to an ICTC, and 3111 (66%) were newly tested for HIV. PITC implementation resulted in the ascertainment of HIV status for 3709/5299 (70%) of TB patients, and detected 200 cases with previously undiagnosed HIV infection. Overall, 468 (8.8%) of all registered TB patients were HIV-infected; 177 (37%) were documented to have also received any ART.

Conclusions

With implementation of PITC in India, HIV status was successfully ascertained for 70% of TB patients. Previously undiagnosed HIV-infection was detected in 6.4% of those TB patients newly tested, enabling referral for life-saving anti-retroviral treatment. ART uptake, however, was poor, suggesting that PITC implementation should include measures to strengthen and support ART referral, evaluation, and initiation.  相似文献   

20.
The re-emergence of tuberculosis (TB) in the mid-1980s in many parts of the world, including the United States, is often attributed to the emergence and rapid spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Although it is well established that TB transmission is particularly amplified in populations with high HIV prevalence, the epidemiology of interaction between TB and HIV is not well understood. This is partly due to the scarcity of HIV-related data, a consequence of the voluntary nature of HIV status reporting and testing, and partly due to current practices of screening high risk populations through separate surveillance programs for HIV and TB. The San Francisco Department of Public Health, TB Control Program, has been conducting active surveillance among the San Francisco high-risk populations since the early 1990s. We present extensive TB surveillance data on HIV and TB infection among the San Francisco homeless to investigate the association between the TB cases and their HIV+ contacts. We applied wavelet coherence and phase analyses to the TB surveillance data from January 1993 through December 2005, to establish and quantify statistical association and synchrony in the highly non-stationary and ostensibly non-periodic waves of TB cases and their HIV+ contacts in San Francisco. When stratified by homelessness, we found that the evolution of TB cases and their HIV+ contacts is highly coherent over time and locked in phase at a specific periodic scale among the San Francisco homeless, but no significant association was observed for the non-homeless. This study confirms the hypothesis that the dynamics of HIV and TB are significantly intertwined and that HIV is likely a key factor in the sustenance of TB transmission among the San Francisco homeless. The findings of this study underscore the importance of contact tracing in detection of HIV+ individuals that may otherwise remain undetected, and thus highlights the ever-increasing need for HIV-related data and an integrative approach to monitoring high-risk populations with respect to HIV and TB transmission.  相似文献   

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