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1.
The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.  相似文献   

2.
Marine megafauna, including seabirds, are critically affected by fisheries bycatch. However, bycatch risk may differ on temporal and spatial scales due to the uneven distribution and effort of fleets operating different fishing gear, and to focal species distribution and foraging behavior. Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea is a long‐lived seabird that experiences high bycatch rates in longline fisheries and strong population‐level impacts due to this type of anthropogenic mortality. Analyzing a long‐term dataset on individual monitoring, we compared adult survival (by means of multi‐event capture–recapture models) among three close predator‐free Mediterranean colonies of the species. Unexpectedly for a long‐lived organism, adult survival varied among colonies. We explored potential causes of this differential survival by (1) measuring egg volume as a proxy of food availability and parental condition; (2) building a specific longline bycatch risk map for the species; and (3) assessing the distribution patterns of breeding birds from the three study colonies via GPS tracking. Egg volume was very similar between colonies over time, suggesting that environmental variability related to habitat foraging suitability was not the main cause of differential survival. On the other hand, differences in foraging movements among individuals from the three colonies expose them to differential mortality risk, which likely influenced the observed differences in adult survival. The overlap of information obtained by the generation of specific bycatch risk maps, the quantification of population demographic parameters, and the foraging spatial analysis should inform managers about differential sensitivity to the anthropogenic impact at mesoscale level and guide decisions depending on the spatial configuration of local populations. The approach would apply and should be considered in any species where foraging distribution is colony‐specific and mortality risk varies spatially.  相似文献   

3.
Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long‐term data (1985–2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub‐Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography.  相似文献   

4.
The effects of temporal, spatial, environmental and operational effects on seabird incidental mortality in the legal Patagonian toothfish longline fishery operating, between 2003 and 2006, in French exclusive economic zones of Crozet and Kerguelen Islands were analysed. During the study period, the mean bycatch rate varied from 0.05 to 0.12 birds per 1,000 hooks. Two species were concerned by incidental mortality: white-chinned petrels (88%) and grey petrels (11.5%). Males of white-chinned petrel seemed more at a risk than females. Logbooks data tended to underreport mortality when compared with dedicated fishery observers. The results indicate that temporal (season or phenology) and spatial (area) factors reflecting mortality risk for seabirds played the most significant role in the incidental mortality of the two species. Operational (integrated weight mainline, number of scaring lines and number of hooks hauled) and environmental factors (wind/vessel angle, moon brightness) were also influential, although less significantly, in increasing this mortality risk. Our two steps analyses by separately modelling the probability of presence and the abundance given presence suggest that the decrease in seabird bycatch over the period was mainly due to an important decrease in probability (occurrence) of mortality.  相似文献   

5.
Predicting the impact of human activities and their derivable consequences, such as global warming or direct wildlife mortality, is increasingly relevant in our changing world. Due to their particular life history traits, long-lived migrants are amongst the most endangered and sensitive group of animals to these harming effects. Our ability to identify and quantify such anthropogenic threats in both breeding and wintering grounds is, therefore, of key importance in the field of conservation biology. Using long-term capture-recapture data (34 years, 4557 individuals) and year-round tracking data (4 years, 100 individuals) of a trans-equatorial migrant, the Cory's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), we investigated the impact of longline fisheries and climatic variables in both breeding and wintering areas on the most important demographic trait of this seabird, i.e. adult survival. Annual adult survival probability was estimated at 0.914±0.022 on average, declining throughout 1978-1999 but recovering during the last decade (2005-2011). Our results suggest that both the incidental bycatch associated with longline fisheries and high sea surface temperatures (indirectly linked to food availability; SST) increased mortality rates during the long breeding season (March-October). Shearwater survival was also negatively affected during the short non-breeding season (December-February) by positive episodes of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Indirect negative effects of climate at both breeding (SST) and wintering grounds (SOI) had a greater impact on survival than longliner activity, and indeed these climatic factors are those which are expected to present more unfavourable trends in the future. Our work underlines the importance of considering both breeding and wintering habitats as well as precise schedules/phenology when assessing the global role of the local impacts on the dynamics of migratory species.  相似文献   

6.
Given the major ongoing influence of environmental change on the oceans, there is a need to understand and predict the future distributions of marine species in order to plan appropriate mitigation to conserve vulnerable species and ecosystems. In this study we use tracking data from seven large seabird species of the Southern Ocean (black‐browed albatross Thalassarche melanophris, grey‐headed albatross T. chrysostoma, northern giant petrel Macronectes halli, southern giant petrel M. giganteus, Tristan albatross Diomedea dabbenena, wandering albatross D. exulans and white‐chinned petrel Procellaria aequinoctialis, and on fishing effort in two types of fisheries (characterised by low or high‐bycatch rates), to model the associations with environmental variables (bathymetry, chlorophyll‐a concentration, sea surface temperature and wind speed) through ensemble species distribution models. We then projected these distributions according to four climate change scenarios built by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change for 2050 and 2100. The resulting projections were consistent across scenarios, indicating that there is a strong likelihood of poleward shifts in distribution of seabirds, and several range contractions (resulting from a shift in the northern, but no change in the southern limit of the range in four species). Current trends for southerly shifts in fisheries distributions are also set to continue under these climate change scenarios at least until 2100; some of these may reflect habitat loss for target species that are already over‐fished. It is of particular concern that a shift in the distribution of several highly threatened seabird species would increase their overlap with fisheries where there is a high‐bycatch risk. Under such scenarios, the associated shifts in distribution of seabirds and increases in bycatch risk will require much‐improved fisheries management in these sensitive areas to minimise impacts on populations in decline.  相似文献   

7.
Hundreds of thousands of seabirds are killed each year as bycatch in longline fisheries. Seabirds are predominantly caught during line setting but bycatch is generally recorded during line hauling, many hours after birds are caught. Bird loss during this interval may lead to inaccurate bycatch information. In this 15 year study, seabird bycatch was recorded during both line setting and line hauling from four fishing regions: Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean, Coral Sea and central Pacific Ocean. Over 43,000 albatrosses, petrels and skuas representing over 25 species were counted during line setting of which almost 6,000 seabirds attempted to take the bait. Bait-taking interactions were placed into one of four categories. (i) The majority (57%) of bait-taking attempts were “unsuccessful” involving seabirds that did not take the bait nor get caught or hooked. (ii) One-third of attempts were “successful” with seabirds removing the bait while not getting caught. (iii) One-hundred and seventy-six seabirds (3% of attempts) were observed being “caught” during line setting, with three albatross species – Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis), black-footed (P. nigripes) and black-browed (Thalassarche melanophrys)– dominating this category. However, of these, only 85 (48%) seabird carcasses were retrieved during line hauling. Most caught seabirds were hooked through the bill. (iv) The remainder of seabird-bait interactions (7%) was not clearly observed, but likely involved more “caught” seabirds. Bait taking attempts and percentage outcome (e.g. successful, caught) varied between seabird species and was not always related to species abundance around fishing vessels. Using only haul data to calculate seabird bycatch grossly underestimates actual bycatch levels, with the level of seabird bycatch from pelagic longline fishing possibly double what was previously thought.  相似文献   

8.
Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries - Albatross bycatch has been increasing over the past decade in the US tuna longline fishery of the central North Pacific. A controlled field...  相似文献   

9.
Invasive species are the main threat to island biodiversity; seabirds are particularly vulnerable and are one of the most threatened groups of birds. Gough Island, a UNESCO World Heritage Site in the South Atlantic Ocean, is an Important Bird and Biodiversity Area, and one of the most important seabird colonies globally. Invasive House Mice Mus musculus depredate eggs and chicks of most seabird species on the island, but the extent of their impact has not been quantified. We used field data and bootstrapped normal distributions to estimate breeding success and the number of surviving chicks for 10 seabird species on Gough Island, and compared estimates with those of analogous species from predator‐free islands. We examined the effects of season and nest‐site location on the breeding success of populations on Gough Island, predicting that the breeding success of Gough birds would be lower than that of analogues, particularly among small burrow‐nesting species. We also predicted that winter‐breeding species would exhibit lower breeding success than summer‐breeding species, because mice have fewer alternative food sources in winter; and below‐ground nesters would have lower breeding success than surface nesters, as below‐ground species are smaller so their chicks are easier prey for mice. We did indeed find that seabirds on Gough Island had low breeding success compared with analogues, losing an estimated 1 739 000 (1 467 000–2 116 000) eggs/chicks annually. Seven of the 10 focal species on Gough Island had particularly high chick mortality and may have been subject to intense mouse predation. Below‐ground and winter breeders had lower breeding success than surface‐ and summer‐breeders. MacGillivray's Prion Pachyptila macgillivrayi, Atlantic Petrel Pterodroma incerta and Tristan Albatross Diomedea dabbenena are endemic or near‐endemic to Gough Island and are likely to be driven to extinction if invasive mice are not removed.  相似文献   

10.
Fisheries have an enormous economic importance, but reconciling their socio‐economic features with the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems presents major challenges. Bycatch mortality from fisheries is clearly among the most serious global threats for marine ecosystems, affecting a wide range of top predators. Recent estimates report ca. 200,000 seabirds killed annually by bycatch in European waters. However, there is an urgent need to rigorously estimate actual mortality rates and quantify effects of bycatch on populations. The Mediterranean Sea is one of the most impacted regions. Here, we estimate for the first time both bycatch mortality rates and their population‐level effects on three endemic and vulnerable Mediterranean taxa: Scopoli's shearwater, Mediterranean shag, and Audouin's gull, that die in different types of fishing gears: longlines, gillnets and sport trolling, respectively. We use multi‐event capture–recapture modelling to estimate crucial demographic parameters, including the probabilities of dying in different fishing gears. We then build stochastic demography models to forecast the viability of the populations under different management scenarios. Longline bycatch was particularly severe for adults of Scopoli's shearwaters and Audouin's gulls (ca. 28% and 23% of total mortality, respectively) and also for immature gulls (ca. 90% of mortality). Gillnets had a lower impact, but were still responsible for ca. 9% of juvenile mortality on shags, whereas sport trolling only slightly influenced total mortality in gulls. Bycatch mortality has high population‐level impacts in all three species, with shearwaters having the highest extinction risk under current mortality rates. Different life‐history traits and compensatory demographic mechanisms between the three species are probably influencing the different bycatch impact: for shearwaters, urgent conservation actions are required to ensure the viability of their populations. Results will be very useful for guiding future seabird conservation policies and moving towards an ecosystem‐based approach to sustainable fisheries management.  相似文献   

11.
Fisheries have major impacts on seabirds, both by changing food availability and by causing direct mortality of birds during trawling and longline setting. However, little is known about the nature and the spatial-temporal extent of the interactions between individual birds and vessels. By studying a system in which we had fine-scale data on bird movements and activity, and near real-time information on vessel distribution, we provide new insights on the association of a threatened albatross with fisheries. During early chick-rearing, black-browed albatrosses Thalassarche melanophris from two different colonies (separated by only 75 km) showed significant differences in the degree of association with fisheries, despite being nearly equidistant to the Falklands fishing fleet. Most foraging trips from either colony did not bring tracked individuals close to vessels, and proportionally little time and foraging effort was spent near ships. Nevertheless, a few individuals repeatedly visited fishing vessels, which may indicate they specialise on fisheries-linked food sources and so are potentially more vulnerable to bycatch. The evidence suggests that this population has little reliance on fisheries discards at a critical stage of its nesting cycle, and hence measures to limit fisheries waste on the Patagonian shelf that also reduce vessel attractiveness and the risk of incidental mortality, would be of high overall conservation benefit.  相似文献   

12.
To predict the impact of climate change over the whole species distribution range, comparison of adult survival variations over large spatial scale is of primary concern for long-lived species populations that are particularly susceptible to decline if adult survival is reduced. In this study, we estimated and compared adult survival rates between 1989 and 1997 of six populations of Cory's shearwater ( Calonectris diomedea ) spread across 4600 km using capture–recapture models. We showed that mean annual adult survival rates are different among populations along a longitudinal gradient and between sexes. Variation in adult survival is synchronized among populations, with three distinct groups: (1) both females and males of Corsica, Tremiti, and Selvagem (annual survival range 0.88–0.96); (2) both females and males of Frioul and females from Crete (0.82–0.92); and (3) both females and males of Malta and males from Crete (0.74–0.88). The total variation accounted for by the common pattern of variation is on average 71%, suggesting strong environmental forcing. At least 61% of the variation in survival is explained by the Southern Oscillation Index fluctuations. We suggested that Atlantic hurricanes and storms during La Niña years may increase adult mortality for Cory's shearwater during winter months. For long-lived seabird species, variation in adult survival is buffered against environmental variability, although extreme climate conditions such as storms significantly affect adult survival. The effect of climate at large spatial scales on adult survival during the nonbreeding period may lead to synchronization of variation in adult survival over the species' range and has large effects on the meta-population trends. One can thus worry about the future of such long-lived seabirds species under the predictions of higher frequency of extreme large-scale climatic events.  相似文献   

13.
Several factors may drive bird nest-site selection, including predation risk, resource availability, weather conditions and interaction with other individuals. Understanding the drivers affecting where birds nest is important for conservation planning, especially where environmental change may alter the distribution of suitable nest-sites. This study investigates which environmental variables affect nest-site selection by the Wandering Albatross Diomedea exulans, the world's largest pelagic bird. Here, wind characteristics are quantitatively investigated as a driver of nest-site selection in surface-nesting birds, in addition to several topographical variables, vegetation and geological characteristics. Nest locations from three different breeding seasons on sub-Antarctic Marion Island were modelled to assess which environmental factors affect nest-site selection. Elevation was the most important determinant of nest-site selection, with Wandering Albatrosses only nesting at low elevations. Distance from the coast and terrain roughness were also important predictors, with nests more generally found close to the coast and in flatter terrain, followed by wind velocity, which showed a hump-shaped relationship with the probability of nest occurrence. Nests occurred more frequently on coastal vegetation types, and were absent from polar desert vegetation (generally above c. 500 m elevation). Of the variables that influence Wandering Albatross nest location, both vegetation type and wind characteristics are likely to be influenced by climate change, and have already changed over the last 50 years. As a result, the availability of suitable nest-sites needs to be considered in light of future climate change, in addition to the impacts that these changes will have on foraging patterns and prey distribution. More broadly, these results provide insights into how a wide range of environmental variables, including wind, can affect nest-site selection of surface-nesting seabirds.  相似文献   

14.
ABSTRACT Incidental seabird mortality associated with bycatch during longline commercial fishing is a conservation concern. An initial step to estimating likelihood of seabird bycatch and conceiving conservation strategies is determining amount of overlap between foraging birds and commercial fishing effort, identifying oceanographic features associated with foraging birds, and quantifying dive characteristics. We tracked 24 adult flesh-footed shearwaters (Puffinus carneipes) breeding on Lord Howe Island located east of Australia during incubation and early and late chick-rearing periods from 6 January to 17 April 2005. At-sea foraging distribution of flesh-footed shearwaters was primarily confined within the jurisdictional Australian Fishing Zone. Foraging was strongly associated with sea-surface temperature >24°C. Spatial and temporal overlap of longline fishing with foraging shearwaters varied throughout the breeding season, but was greatest (63% overlap) during early chick-rearing. Mean maximum distance reached from the breeding colony during a foraging event was 804 km (SD = 280) from Lord Howe Island. Foraging behavior was strongly diurnal, with 91% of dives occurring during daylight, and most dives (77%) were <5 m. Given that longline fishing and flesh-footed shearwaters overlap substantially, the Australian Fisheries Management Authority should consider implementing additional regulations to further reduce bycatch. Conservation strategies such as setting longlines at nights may reduce flesh-footed shearwater bycatch.  相似文献   

15.
Understanding how species might respond to climate change involves disentangling the influence of co‐occurring environmental factors on population dynamics, and is especially problematic for migratory species like Pacific salmon that move between ecosystems. To date, debate surrounding the causes of recent declines in Yukon River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance has centered on whether factors in freshwater or marine environments control variation in survival, and how these populations at the northern extremity of the species range will respond to climate change. To estimate the effect of factors in marine and freshwater environments on Chinook salmon survival, we constructed a stage‐structured assessment model that incorporates the best available data, estimates incidental marine bycatch mortality in trawl fisheries, and uses Bayesian model selection methods to quantify support for alternative hypotheses. Models fitted to two index populations of Yukon River Chinook salmon indicate that processes in the nearshore and marine environments are the most important determinants of survival. Specifically, survival declines when ice leaves the Yukon River later in the spring, increases with wintertime temperature in the Bering Sea, and declines with the abundance of globally enhanced salmon species consistent with competition at sea. In addition, we found support for density‐dependent survival limitations in freshwater but not marine portions of the life cycle, increasing average survival with ocean age, and age‐specific selectivity of bycatch mortality in the Bering Sea. This study underscores the utility of flexible estimation models capable of fitting multiple data types and evaluating mortality from both natural and anthropogenic sources in multiple habitats. Overall, these analyses suggest that mortality at sea is the primary driver of population dynamics, yet under warming climate Chinook salmon populations at the northern extent of the species’ range may be expected to fare better than southern populations, but are influenced by foreign salmon production.  相似文献   

16.
Understanding the environmental mechanisms that govern population change is a fundamental objective in ecology. Although the determination of how top-down and bottom-up drivers affect demography is important, it is often equally critical to understand the extent to which, environmental conditions that underpin these drivers fluctuate across time. For example, associations between climate and both food availability and predation risk may suggest the presence of trophic interactions that may influence inferences made from patterns in ecological data. Analytical tools have been developed to account for these correlations, while providing opportunities to ask novel questions regarding how populations change across space and time. Here, we combine two modeling disciplines—path analysis and mark-recapture-recovery models—to explore whether shifts in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) influenced top-down (entanglement in fishing equipment) or bottom-up (forage fish production) population constraints over 60 years, and the extent to which these covarying processes shaped the survival of a long-lived seabird, the Royal tern. We found that hemispheric trends in SST were associated with variation in the amount of fish harvested along the Atlantic coast of North America and in the Caribbean, whereas reductions in forage fish production were mostly driven by shifts in the amount of fish harvested by commercial fisheries throughout the North Atlantic the year prior. Although the indirect (i.e., stock depletion) and direct (i.e., entanglement) impacts of commercial fishing on Royal tern mortality has declined over the last 60 years, increased SSTs during this time period has resulted in a comparable increase in mortality risk, which disproportionately impacted the survival of the youngest age-classes of Royal terns. Given climate projections for the North Atlantic, our results indicate that threats to Royal tern population persistence in the Mid-Atlantic will most likely be driven by failures to recruit juveniles into the breeding population.  相似文献   

17.
The timing of annual events such as reproduction is a critical component of how free‐living organisms respond to ongoing climate change. This may be especially true in the Arctic, which is disproportionally impacted by climate warming. Here, we show that Arctic seabirds responded to climate change by moving the start of their reproduction earlier, coincident with an advancing onset of spring and that their response is phylogenetically and spatially structured. The phylogenetic signal is likely driven by seabird foraging behavior. Surface‐feeding species advanced their reproduction in the last 35 years while diving species showed remarkably stable breeding timing. The earlier reproduction for Arctic surface‐feeding birds was significant in the Pacific only, where spring advancement was most pronounced. In both the Atlantic and Pacific, seabirds with a long breeding season showed a greater response to the advancement of spring than seabirds with a short breeding season. Our results emphasize that spatial variation, phylogeny, and life history are important considerations in seabird phenological response to climate change and highlight the key role played by the species’ foraging behavior.  相似文献   

18.
Operational interactions between odontocetes (i.e., toothed whales) and longline gear are a global phenomenon that may threaten the conservation of odontocete populations and the economic viability of longline fisheries. This review attempts to define the issue, summarize the trends and geographical extent of its occurrence over the last half century, explore the potential impact on odontocetes and on fisheries, and describe potential acoustic and physical mitigation solutions. Reports of odontocete bycatch rates are highly variable (between 0.002 and 0.231 individuals killed per set) and at least 20 species may be involved. Information about marine mammal population size, migration patterns and life history characteristics are scarce, although at least one population may be in decline due to losses attributable to longline bycatch. Information about the financial impact of depredation on pelagic longline fisheries is also scarce, although estimates of daily fleet‐wide losses range between US$1,034 and US$8,495 (overall fleet income was not reported). Such biological and financial losses may be unsustainable. Recent developments in acoustic and physical mitigation technologies have yielded mixed results. Acoustic mitigation technologies have no moving parts, although require complex electronics. To date, they are insufficiently developed and their efficacy has been difficult to assess. Physical mitigation technologies generally require complex moving parts, although they are relatively simple to develop and assess. Further development and testing remains necessary before widespread implementation would be possible. Development of these approaches should be prioritized and a “toolbox” of various strategies and solutions should be compiled, because a single panacea to the problem is unlikely to emerge.  相似文献   

19.
Surviving with low genetic diversity: the case of albatrosses   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Low genetic diversity is predicted to negatively impact species viability and has been a central concern for conservation. In contrast, the possibility that some species may thrive in spite of a relatively poor diversity has received little attention. The wandering and Amsterdam albatrosses (Diomedea exulans and Diomedea amsterdamensis) are long-lived seabirds standing at an extreme along the gradient of life strategies, having traits that may favour inbreeding and low genetic diversity. Divergence time of the two species is estimated at 0.84 Myr ago from cytochrome b data. We tested the hypothesis that both albatrosses inherited poor genetic diversity from their common ancestor. Within the wandering albatross, per cent polymorphic loci and expected heterozygosity at amplified fragment length polymorphisms were approximately one-third of the minimal values reported in other vertebrates. Genetic diversity in the Amsterdam albatross, which is recovering from a severe bottleneck, was about twice as low as in the wandering albatross. Simulations supported the hypothesis that genetic diversity in albatrosses was already depleted prior to their divergence. Given the generally high breeding success of these species, it is likely that they are not suffering much from their impoverished diversity. Whether albatrosses are unique in this regard is unknown, but they appear to challenge the classical view about the negative consequences of genetic depletion on species survival.  相似文献   

20.
Long-term studies of seabirds, some now 30-40 years old, have begun to reveal significant age-related changes in the survival and reproduction o f these long-lived animals. Evidence for density-dependent regulation of seabird numbers, however, remains sparse whereas unpredictable, disastrous breeding years may be an important influence. Critical evaluation will require better data on (1) the extent of movements of seabirds between colonies, (2) the characteristics of those individuals that contribute disproportionately to the next generation, and (3) the importance of year and/or cohort effects on population processes.  相似文献   

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