The role of ABO blood groups and secretor status in host defences

Abstract Epidemiological studies on the associations between ABO blood group antigens, secretor status and susceptibility to infectious agents are summarized. Evidence for association of non-secretion with some autoimmune diseases for which infectious aetiologies have been proposed is also given. Several hypothesis are proposed to explain the host-parasite interactions underlying the epidemiological observations, and evidence to support or refute them is presented.     

Incorporating infectious duration-dependent transmission into Bayesian epidemic models

Compartmental models are commonly used to describe the spread of infectious diseases by estimating the probabilities of transitions between important disease states. A significant challenge in fitting Bayesian compartmental models lies in the need to estimate the duration of the infectious period, based on limited data providing only symptom onset date or another proxy for the start of infectiousness. Commonly, the exponential distribution is used to describe the infectious duration, an overly simplistic approach, which is not biologically plausible. More flexible distributions can be used, but parameter identifiability and computational cost can worsen for moderately sized or large epidemics. In this article, we present a novel approach, which considers a curve of transmissibility over a fixed infectious duration. The incorporation of infectious duration-dependent (IDD) transmissibility, which decays to zero during the infectious period, is biologically reasonable for many viral infections and fixing the length of the infectious period eases computational complexity in model fitting. Through simulation, we evaluate different functional forms of IDD transmissibility curves and show that the proposed approach offers improved estimation of the time-varying reproductive number. We illustrate the benefit of our approach through a new analysis of the 1995 outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.     

An SEIS epidemic model with transport-related infection

In this paper, an SEIS epidemic model is proposed to study the effect of transport-related infection on the spread and control of infectious disease. New result implies that traveling of the exposed (means exposed but not yet infectious) individuals can bring disease from one region to other regions even if the infectious individuals are inhibited from traveling among regions. It is shown that transportation among regions will change the disease dynamics and break infection out even if infectious diseases will go to extinction in each isolated region without transport-related infection. In addition, our analysis shows that transport-related infection intensifies the disease spread if infectious diseases break out to cause an endemic situation in each region, in the sense of that both the absolute and relative size of patients increase. This suggests that it is very essential to strengthen restrictions of passengers once we know infectious diseases appeared.     

TSE agent strains and PrP: reconciling structure and function

The molecular structures of the infectious agents that cause transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) diseases are still not known despite the current wide acceptance of the prion hypothesis as the basis for their resolution. Here, data supporting and challenging the prion hypothesis in relation to both the biochemical and biological properties of TSE infectious agents are discussed. The need for the independent transmission of TSE agent-specific genetic information is described and the requirements for the molecule to carry this information are proposed. Such a molecule is likely to be a small nucleic acid encoding information to determine the diversity of the pathogenesis of TSE agents.     

The Evolutions of Medical Building Network Structure for Emerging Infectious Disease Protection and Control

Emerging infectious disease is one of the most minatory threats in modern society. A perfect medical building network system need to be established to protect and control emerging infectious disease. Although in China a preliminary medical building network is already set up with disease control center, the infectious disease hospital, infectious diseases department in general hospital and basic medical institutions, there are still many defects in this system, such as simple structural model, weak interoperability among subsystems, and poor capability of the medical building to adapt to outbreaks of infectious disease. Based on the characteristics of infectious diseases, the whole process of its prevention and control and the comprehensive influence factors, three-dimensional medical architecture network system is proposed as an inevitable trend. In this conception of medical architecture network structure, the evolutions are mentioned, such as from simple network system to multilayer space network system, from static network to dynamic network, and from mechanical network to sustainable network. Ultimately, a more adaptable and corresponsive medical building network system will be established and argued in this paper.     

A two-component model for counts of infectious diseases

We propose a stochastic model for the analysis of time series of disease counts as collected in typical surveillance systems on notifiable infectious diseases. The model is based on a Poisson or negative binomial observation model with two components: a parameter-driven component relates the disease incidence to latent parameters describing endemic seasonal patterns, which are typical for infectious disease surveillance data. An observation-driven or epidemic component is modeled with an autoregression on the number of cases at the previous time points. The autoregressive parameter is allowed to change over time according to a Bayesian changepoint model with unknown number of changepoints. Parameter estimates are obtained through the Bayesian model averaging using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We illustrate our approach through analysis of simulated data and real notification data obtained from the German infectious disease surveillance system, administered by the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin. Software to fit the proposed model can be obtained from http://www.statistik.lmu.de/ approximately mhofmann/twins.     

医疗卫生机构公共卫生服务协同模式的构建

医疗卫生机构公共卫生工作是传染病医疗救治和预防控制的关键环节，文章梳理了医疗卫生机构公共卫生服务能力建设需解决的问题，提出了两者协同运行模式构建方法，为完善协同运行的关键环节建设提供借签。     

精准医学与微生物感染——实施精准感染病学的探讨

2015年3月,习近平主席亲自指示科技部召开了国家首次精准医学战略专家座谈会。鉴于我国在病原微生物学、免疫学、疫苗学及感染病学中的成就,本文从病因和机体免疫应答方面分析了我国开展精准感染病学的优势并提出主要切入点。通过对免疫基因组学的研究,结合环境因素及生活习惯的综合研究,将对控制感染性疾病作出创新性贡献,这具有全球性的重要价值。     

Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases: Biocomplexity as an Interdisciplinary Paradigm

Understanding factors responsible for reemergence of diseases believed to have been controlled and outbreaks of previously unknown infectious diseases is one of the most difficult scientific problems facing society today. Significant knowledge gaps exist for even the most studied emerging infectious diseases. Coupled with failures in the response to the resurgence of infectious diseases, this lack of information is embedded in a simplistic view of pathogens and disconnected from a social and ecological context, and assumes a linear response of pathogens to environmental change. In fact, the natural reservoirs and transmission rates of most emerging infectious diseases primarily are affected by environmental factors, such as seasonality or meteorological events, typically producing nonlinear responses that are inherently unpredictable. A more realistic view of emerging infectious diseases requires a holistic perspective that incorporates social as well as physical, chemical, and biological dimensions of our planet’s systems. The notion of biocomplexity captures this depth and richness, and most importantly, the interactions of human and natural systems. This article provides a brief review and a synthesis of interdisciplinary approaches and insights employing the biocomplexity paradigm and offers a social–ecological approach for addressing and garnering an improved understanding of emerging infectious diseases. Drawing on findings from studies of cholera and other examples of emerging waterborne, zoonotic, and vectorborne diseases, a “blueprint” for the proposed interdisciplinary research framework is offered which integrates biological processes from the molecular level to that of communities and regional systems, incorporating public health infrastructure and climate aspects.     

Host nutritional status: the neglected virulence factor

The emergence of new infectious diseases and old diseases with new pathogenic properties is a burgeoning worldwide problem. Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) are just two of the most widely reported recent emerging infectious diseases. What are the factors that contribute to the rapid evolution of viral species? Various hypotheses have been proposed, all involving opportunities for virus spread (for example, agricultural practices, climate changes, rainforest clearing or air travel). However, the nutritional status of the host, until recently, has not been considered a contributing factor to the emergence of infectious disease. In this review, we show that host nutritional status can influence not only the host response to the pathogen, but can also influence the genetic make-up of the viral genome. This latter finding markedly changes our concept of host-pathogen interactions and creates a new paradigm for the study of such phenomena.     

Household Epidemics: Modelling Effects of Early Stage Vaccination

A Markovian susceptible → infectious → removed (SIR) epidemic model is considered in a community partitioned into households. A vaccination strategy, which is implemented during the early stages of the disease following the detection of infected individuals is proposed. In this strategy, the detection occurs while an individual is infectious and other susceptible household members are vaccinated without further delay. Expressions are derived for the influence on the reproduction numbers of this vaccination strategy for equal and unequal household sizes. We fit previously estimated parameters from influenza and use household distributions for Sweden and Tanzania census data. The results show that the reproduction number is much higher in Tanzania (6 compared with 2) due to larger households, and that infected individuals have to be detected (and household members vaccinated) after on average 5 days in Sweden and after 3.3 days in Tanzania, a much smaller difference.     

A mechanism for copper inhibition of infectious prion conversion

We employ ab initio electronic structure calculations to obtain two structural models for copper bound in the strongest binding site of the noninfectious form of the prion protein. The models are compatible with available experimental constraints from electron spin resonance data. The bending of the peptide backbone attendant with the copper binding is not compatible with the requisite straight beta-strand backbone structure for the same sequence contained in two recently proposed models of the prion protein structure in its infectious form. We hypothesize that copper binding at this site is protective against conversion to the infectious form, discuss experimental data that appear to support and conflict with our hypothesis, and propose tests using recombinant prion protein, genetically modified cultured neurons, and transgenic mice.     

Skin as a potential source of infectious foot and mouth disease aerosols

This review examines whether exfoliated, virus-infected animal skin cells could be an important source of infectious foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) aerosols. Infectious material rafting on skin cell aerosols is an established means of transmitting other diseases. The evidence for a similar mechanism for FMDV is: (i) FMDV is trophic for animal skin and FMDV epidermis titres are high, even in macroscopically normal skin; (ii) estimates for FMDV skin cell aerosol emissions appear consistent with measured aerosol emission rates and are orders of magnitude larger than the minimum infectious dose; (iii) the timing of infectious FMDV aerosol emissions is consistent with the timing of high FMDV skin concentrations; (iv) measured FMDV aerosol sizes are consistent with skin cell aerosols; and (v) FMDV stability in natural aerosols is consistent with that expected for skin cell aerosols. While these findings support the hypothesis, this review is insufficient, in and of itself, to prove the hypothesis and specific follow-on experiments are proposed. If this hypothesis is validated, (i) new FMDV detection, management and decontamination approaches could be developed and (ii) the relevance of skin cells to the spread of viral disease may need to be reassessed as skin cells may protect viruses against otherwise adverse environmental conditions.     

Impulsive Vaccination of an SEIRS Model with Time Delay and Varying Total Population Size

Pulse vaccination is an effective and important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A delayed SEIRS epidemic model with pulse vaccination and varying total population size is proposed in this paper. We point out, if R* < 1, the infectious population disappear so the disease dies out, while if R _*; > 1, the infectious population persist. Our results indicate that a long period of pulsing or a small pulse vaccination rate is sufficient condition for the permanence of the model.     

Prion hypothesis: the end of the controversy?

Forty-three years have passed since it was first proposed that a protein could be the sole component of the infectious agent responsible for the enigmatic prion diseases. Many discoveries have strongly supported the prion hypothesis, but only recently has this once heretical hypothesis been widely accepted by the scientific community. In the past 3 years, researchers have achieved the 'Holy Grail' demonstration that infectious material can be generated in vitro using completely defined components. These breakthroughs have proven that a misfolded protein is the active component of the infectious agent, and that propagation of the disease and its unique features depend on the self-replication of the infectious folding of the prion protein. In spite of these important discoveries, it remains unclear whether another molecule besides the misfolded prion protein might be an essential element of the infectious agent. Future research promises to reveal many more intriguing features about the rogue prions.     

The structural simplification of an epidemiological compartment model

It is shown how a multicompartmental infectious disease model can be systematically examined for reduction of structural complexity. For steadystate situations, four basic rules are proposed for eliminating components of flow-lines, whole flow-lines, and compartments, plus combining compartments. An application to a typhoid fever model allows calculations to be done on a pocket calculator. The approach could be particularly important in developing countries.     

Challenges to global surveillance and response to infectious disease outbreaks of international importance

This article presents a notional scheme of global surveillance and response to infectious disease outbreaks and reviews 14 international surveillance and response programs. In combination, the scheme and the programs illustrate how, in an ideal world and in the real world, infectious disease outbreaks of public health significance could be detected and contained. Notable practices and achievements of the programs are cited; these may be useful when instituting new programs or redesigning existing ones. Insufficiencies are identified in four critical areas: health infrastructure; scientific methods and concepts of operation; essential human, technical, and financial resources; and international policies. These insufficiencies challenge global surveillance of and response to infectious disease outbreaks of international importance. This article is intended to help policymakers appreciate the complexity of the problem and assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of proposed solutions. An assessment of the potential contribution of appropriate diagnostic tests to surveillance and response is included.     

Proteomics in immunity and herpes simplex encephalitis

The genetic theory of infectious diseases has proposed that susceptibility to life-threatening infectious diseases in childhood, occurring in the course of primary infection, results mostly from individually rare but collectively diverse single-gene variants. Recent evidence of an ever-expanding spectrum of genes involved in susceptibility to infectious disease indicates that the paradigm has important implications for diagnosis and treatment. One such pathology is childhood herpes simplex encephalitis, which shows a pattern of rare but diverse disease-disposing genetic variants. The present report shows how proteomics can help to understand susceptibility to childhood herpes simplex encephalitis and other viral infections, suggests that proteomics may have a particularly important role to play, emphasizes that variation over the population is a critical issue for proteomics and notes some new challenges for proteomics and related bioinformatics tools in the context of rare but diverse genetic defects.     

Can Wolbachia be used to control malaria?

Malaria is a mosquito-borne infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasites transmitted by the infectious bite of Anopheles mosquitoes. Vector control of malaria has predominantly focused on targeting the adult mosquito through insecticides and bed nets. However, current vector control methods are often not sustainable for long periods so alternative methods are needed. A novel biocontrol approach for mosquito-borne diseases has recently been proposed, it uses maternally inherited endosymbiotic Wolbachia bacteria transinfected into mosquitoes in order to interfere with pathogen transmission. Transinfected Wolbachia strains in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, the primary vector of dengue fever, directly inhibit pathogen replication, including Plasmodium gallinaceum, and also affect mosquito reproduction to allow Wolbachia to spread through mosquito populations. In addition, transient Wolbachia infections in Anopheles gambiae significantly reduce Plasmodium levels. Here we review the prospects of using a Wolbachia-based approach to reduce human malaria transmission through transinfection of Anopheles mosquitoes.     

Additive‐Multiplicative Regression Models for Spatio‐Temporal Epidemics

An extension of the stochastic susceptible–infectious–recovered (SIR) model is proposed in order to accommodate a regression context for modelling infectious disease data. The proposal is based on a multivariate counting process specified by conditional intensities, which contain an additive epidemic component and a multiplicative endemic component. This allows the analysis of endemic infectious diseases by quantifying risk factors for infection by external sources in addition to infective contacts. Inference can be performed by considering the full likelihood of the stochastic process with additional parameter restrictions to ensure non‐negative conditional intensities. Simulation from the model can be performed by Ogata's modified thinning algorithm. As an illustrative example, we analyse data provided by the Federal Research Centre for Virus Diseases of Animals, Wusterhausen, Germany, on the incidence of the classical swine fever virus in Germany during 1993–2004.