Using an ecosystem model linked to GCM-derived local weather scenarios to analyse effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on dry matter production and partitioning, and water use in temperate managed grasslands

Local effects of climate change (CC) and elevated CO₂ (2 × CO₂, 660 μmol mol^–1) on managed temperate grasslands were assessed by forcing a dynamic ecosystem model with weather scenarios. The aims of the study were to compare the relative importance of individual and combined effects of CC, 2 × CO₂, and photosynthetic acclimation, and to assess the importance of local site conditions. The model was driven by hourly means for temperature (T), precipitation (P), global radiation (G), vapour pressure (VP), and wind speed (U). Local climate scenarios were derived by statistical downscaling techniques from a 2 × CO₂ simulation with the General Circulation Model of the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC-GCMII). Simulations over 14 growing seasons to account for year-to-year variability of climate were carried out for a low, relatively dry site, and a high, more humid site. At both sites, shoot dry matter responded positively to 2 × CO₂ with the site at low elevation being more sensitive than the higher site. The effect of assumed changes in climate was negative at the lower, but positive at the higher site. Shoot dry matter was more sensitive to the effects of 2 × CO₂ than to CC. Both effects combined increased shoot dry matter by up to 20%. This was attributed to direct effects of 2 × CO₂ and increased T, and indirect stimulation via increased soil N availability. Biomass partitioning to roots increased with 2 × CO₂ but decreased with CC, while an intermediate response resulted from the combination. Leaf area index (LAI) increased under 2 × CO₂, but not enough to compensate fully for a decrease in leaf conductance. Under the 2 × CO₂ scenario evapotranspiration (ET) decreased, but increased under CC. Photosynthetic acclimation reduced the effect of 2 × CO₂ on shoot growth, but had little effect on ET. The seasonal water use efficiency (WUE) was improved under 2 × CO₂, and reduced under CC. With the combination of both factors, the change was small but still positive, especially at the high elevation site with more favourable soil water conditions. This reflects the stronger positive yield response in combination with a smaller increase in ET under cooler, more humid conditions. The results for the combination of factors suggest that except for shoot growth, effects of 2 × CO₂ and CC tend to offset each other. While CC determines the sign of the ET response, the sign of the biomass response is determined by 2 × CO₂. The results highlight the importance of a site-specific analysis of ecosystem responses by using a flexible approach based on a combination of state-of-the-art downscaling, spatially resolved data sets, and a mechanistic model to obtain quantitative and reproducible assessments of climate change impacts at the ecosystem level.     

Projecting future N2O emissions from agricultural soils in Belgium

This study analyses the spatial and temporal variability of N₂O emissions from the agricultural soils of Belgium. Annual N₂O emission rates are estimated with two statistical models, MCROPS and MGRASS, which take account of the impact of changes in land use, climate, and nitrogen‐fertilization rate. The models are used to simulate the temporal trend of N₂O emissions between 1990 and 2050 for a 10′ latitude and longitude grid. The results are also aggregated to the regional and national scale to facilitate comparison with other studies and national inventories. Changes in climate and land use are derived from the quantitative scenarios developed by the ATEAM project based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change‐Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC‐SRES) storylines. The average N₂O flux for Belgium was estimated to be 8.6 × 10⁶ kg N₂O‐N yr⁻¹ (STD = 2.1 × 10⁶ kg N₂O‐N yr⁻¹) for the period 1990–2000. Fluxes estimated for a single year (1996) give a reasonable agreement with published results at the national and regional scales for the same year. The scenario‐based simulations of future N₂O emissions show the strong influence of land‐use change. The scenarios A1FI, B1 and B2 produce similar results between 2001 and 2050 with a national emission rate in 2050 of 11.9 × 10⁶ kg N₂O‐N yr⁻¹. The A2 scenario, however, is very sensitive to the reduction in agricultural land areas (−14% compared with the 1990 baseline), which results in a reduced emission rate in 2050 of 8.3 × 10⁶ kg N₂O‐N yr⁻¹. Neither the climatic change scenarios nor the reduction in nitrogen fertilization rate could explain these results leading to the conclusion that N₂O emissions from Belgian agricultural soils will be more markedly affected by changes in agricultural land areas.     

Elevational species shifts in a warmer climate are overestimated when based on weather station data

Strong topographic variation interacting with low stature alpine vegetation creates a multitude of micro-habitats poorly represented by common 2 m above the ground meteorological measurements (weather station data). However, the extent to which the actual habitat temperatures in alpine landscapes deviate from meteorological data at different spatial scales has rarely been quantified. In this study, we assessed thermal surface and soil conditions across topographically rich alpine landscapes by thermal imagery and miniature data loggers from regional (2-km²) to plot (1-m²) scale. The data were used to quantify the effects of spatial sampling resolution on current micro-habitat distributions and habitat loss due to climate warming scenarios. Soil temperatures showed substantial variation among slopes (2–3 K) dependent on slope exposure, within slopes (3–4 K) due to micro-topography and within 1-m² plots (1 K) as a result of plant cover effects. A reduction of spatial sampling resolution from 1 × 1 m to 100 × 100 m leads to an underestimation of current habitat diversity by 25% and predicts a six-times higher habitat loss in a 2-K warming scenario. Our results demonstrate that weather station data are unable to reflect the complex thermal patterns of aerodynamically decoupled alpine vegetation at the investigated scales. Thus, the use of interpolated weather station data to describe alpine life conditions without considering the micro-topographically induced thermal mosaic might lead to misinterpretation and inaccurate prediction.     

Frost in a future climate: modelling interactive effects of warmer temperatures and rising atmospheric [CO2] on the incidence and severity of frost damage in a temperate evergreen (Eucalyptus pauciflora)

Although plants are more susceptible to frost damage under elevated atmospheric [CO₂], the importance of frost damage under future, warmer climate scenarios is unknown. Accordingly, we used a model to examine the incidence and severity of frost damage to snow gum (Eucalyptus pauciflora) in a sub‐alpine region of Australia for current and future conditions using the A2 IPCC elevated CO₂ and climate change scenario. An existing model for predicting frost effects on E. pauciflora seedlings was adapted to include effects of elevated [CO₂] on acclimation to freezing temperatures, calibrated with field data, and applied to a study region in Victoria using climate scenario data from CSIRO's Global Climate Model C‐CAM for current (1975–2004) and future (2035–2064) 30 years climate sequences. Temperatures below 0 °C were predicted to occur less frequently while the coldest temperatures (i.e. those below ?8 °C) were almost as common in the future as in the current climate. Both elevated [CO₂] and climate warming affected the timing and rates of acclimation and de‐acclimation of snow gum to freezing temperatures, potentially reducing the length of time that plants are fully frost tolerant and increasing the length of the growing season. Despite fewer days when temperatures fall below 0 °C in the future, with consequently fewer damaging frosts with lower average levels of impact, individual weather sequences resulting in widespread plant mortality may still occur. Furthermore, delayed acclimation due to either warming or rising [CO₂] combined with an early severe frost could lead to more frost damage and higher mortality than would occur in current conditions. Effects of elevated [CO₂] on frost damage were greater in autumn, while warming had more effect in spring. Thus, frost damage will continue to be a management issue for plantation and forest management in regions where frosts persist.     

Carbon emission and sequestration by agricultural land use: a model study for Europe

A model was developed to calculate carbon fluxes from agricultural soils. The model includes the effects of crop (species, yield and rotation), climate (temperature, rainfall and evapotranspiration) and soil (carbon content and water retention capacity) on the carbon budget of agricultural land. The changes in quality of crop residues and organic material as a result of changes in CO₂ concentration and changed management were not considered in this model. The model was parameterized for several arable crops and grassland. Data from agricultural, meteorological, soil, and land use databases were input to the model, and the model was used to evaluate the effects of different carbon dioxide mitigation measures on soil organic carbon in agricultural areas in Europe. Average carbon fluxes under the business as usual scenario in the 2008–2012 commitment period were estimated at 0.52 tC ha^?1 y^?1 in grassland and ?0.84 tC ha^?1 y^?1 in arable land. Conversion of arable land to grassland yielded a flux of 1.44 tC ha^?1 y^?1. Farm management related activities aiming at carbon sequestration ranged from 0.15 tC ha^?1 y^?1 for the incorporating of straw to 1.50 tC ha^?1 y^?1 for the application of farmyard manure. Reduced tillage yields a positive flux of 0.25 tC ha^?1 y^?1. The indirect effect associated with climate was an order of magnitude lower. A temperature rise of 1 °C resulted in a ?0.05 tC ha^?1 y^?1 change whereas the rising CO₂ concentrations gave a 0.01 tC ha^?1 y^?1 change. Estimates are rendered on a 0.5 × 0.5° grid for the commitment period 2008–2012. The study reveals considerable regional differences in the effectiveness of carbon dioxide abatement measures, resulting from the interaction between crop, soil and climate. Besides, there are substantial differences between the spatial patterns of carbon fluxes that result from different measures.     

Impact of moderate and extreme climate change scenarios on growth,morphological features,photosynthesis, and fruit production of hot pepper

Horticultural crop production and changes in physiological aspects during the growing season may be affected by climate change factors (CC), which include increased temperature and the associated doubling or tripling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, the potential effects are complex and many parameters might impact on the observed effects. To evaluate the effects of CC, the growth, yield, fruit characteristics, photosynthetic traits, and morphological characteristics of hot peppers were investigated. The hot peppers were grown under two CC scenarios, with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 4.5 (Temp.; +3.4°C, CO₂ conc.; 540 μmol/mol, Precipitation +17.3%) and RCP 8.5 (Temp.; +6.0°C and CO₂ conc.; 940 μmol/mol, Precipitation +20.3%), respectively, using extreme weather simulators. This was compared with existing weather conditions occurring in Jeonju, South Korea in terms of air temperature, relative humidity, radiation, and precipitation. Overall, the plant height showed the highest under moderate CC conditions (RCP 4.5) among all the treatments tested. The number of leaves in the RCP 8.5 condition showed 7,739/plants, which was 2.2 times higher than that of the control. In addition, fruit shape was shortened and percentage dry matter was also the highest. The yield of hot pepper in the CC RCP 4.5 and 8.5 conditions were decreased by 21.5% and 89.2% when compared with that of the control, respectively. The days to harvest in the condition of CC scenarios were shortened from 5 to 13 compared with that of control, predominantly due to the increased air temperature. The results indicated that the severe RCP CC scenarios made reduction in the yields and negative affection on the fruit qualities. Overall, hot pepper was tolerant of mild CC scenarios of temperature × CO₂ but was significantly affected by more extreme CC interacting parameter concentrations (or similar).     

Importance of biophysical effects on climate warming mitigation potential of biofuel crops over the conterminous United States

Current quantification of climate warming mitigation potential (CWMP) of biomass‐derived energy has focused primarily on its biogeochemical effects. This study used site‐level observations of carbon, water, and energy fluxes of biofuel crops to parameterize and evaluate the community land model (CLM) and estimate CO₂ fluxes, surface energy balance, soil carbon dynamics of corn (Zea mays), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), and miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) ecosystems across the conterminous United States considering different agricultural management practices and land‐use scenarios. We find that neglecting biophysical effects underestimates the CWMP of transitioning from croplands and marginal lands to energy crops. Biogeochemical effects alone result in changes in carbon storage of ?1.9, 49.1, and 69.3 g C m^?2 y^?1 compared to 20.5, 78.5, and 96.2 g C m^?2 y^?1 when considering both biophysical and biogeochemical effects for corn, switchgrass, and miscanthus, respectively. The biophysical contribution to CWMP is dominated by changes in latent heat fluxes. Using the model to optimize growth conditions through fertilization and irrigation increases the CWMP further to 79.6, 98.3, and 118.8 g C m^?2 y^?1, respectively, representing the upper threshold for CWMP. Results also show that the CWMP over marginal lands is lower than that over croplands. This study highlights that neglecting the biophysical effects of altered surface energy and water balance underestimates the CWMP of transitioning to bioenergy crops at regional scales.     

Climate change scenarios experiments predict a future reduction in small pelagic fish recruitment in the Humboldt Current system

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) sustains the world′s largest small pelagic fishery. While a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. Recent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric CO₂ scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling‐favorable winds may remain nearly constant off Peru and increase off Chile. Here we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. We used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. Numerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the HCS from global simulations forced by pre‐industrial (PI), 2 × CO₂ and 4 × CO₂ scenarios. A biogeochemical model is applied to the PI and 4 × CO₂ scenarios to define a time‐variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. We test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: One corresponding to the present‐day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. It appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. However, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. The underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. Our results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the HCS with strong ecological, economic and social consequences.     

Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs)

This study tests the ability of five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), forced with observed climatology and atmospheric CO₂, to model the contemporary global carbon cycle. The DGVMs are also coupled to a fast ‘climate analogue model’, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and run into the future for four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1FI, A2, B1, B2. Results show that all DGVMs are consistent with the contemporary global land carbon budget. Under the more extreme projections of future environmental change, the responses of the DGVMs diverge markedly. In particular, large uncertainties are associated with the response of tropical vegetation to drought and boreal ecosystems to elevated temperatures and changing soil moisture status. The DGVMs show more divergence in their response to regional changes in climate than to increases in atmospheric CO₂ content. All models simulate a release of land carbon in response to climate, when physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ on plant production are not considered, implying a positive terrestrial climate‐carbon cycle feedback. All DGVMs simulate a reduction in global net primary production (NPP) and a decrease in soil residence time in the tropics and extra‐tropics in response to future climate. When both counteracting effects of climate and atmospheric CO₂ on ecosystem function are considered, all the DGVMs simulate cumulative net land carbon uptake over the 21st century for the four SRES emission scenarios. However, for the most extreme A1FI emissions scenario, three out of five DGVMs simulate an annual net source of CO₂ from the land to the atmosphere in the final decades of the 21st century. For this scenario, cumulative land uptake differs by 494 Pg C among DGVMs over the 21st century. This uncertainty is equivalent to over 50 years of anthropogenic emissions at current levels.     

Using the NZ–DNDC model to estimate agricultural N2O emissions in the Manawatu–Wanganui region

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions are difficult to quantify at regional and national scales. There is considerable spatial and temporal variability in N₂O emissions from soil, partly because of variability in the underlying biogenic processes responsible for soil N₂O production. The process-based NZ–DNDC (New Zealand Denitrification-Decomposition) model was used, with georeferenced input data on soils, climate and land use, to map and predict net N₂O emissions from farming in the Manawatu–Wanganui region. The Manawatu–Wanganui region has a temperate, maritime climate and the major agricultural land use is pastoral grazing. We created databases of regional soil, climate and farm management information from various available data sources including national databases of climate, soil type and land use, and national agricultural production statistics. The error introduced by upscaling the model was assessed by comparing results using measured site data with the corresponding predictions using the regional approximations. We also examined the effect of climate conditions by rerunning the 2003 simulation using the climate data for the years ended June 1990 and 2004. The modelled net N₂O emissions for this region for the year ended June 2003 were 4.6?±?1.5 Gg N₂O–N per year. The total fertiliser and excretal N inputs for the region were approximately 224,140 tonnes, so the percentage emitted as N₂O was 2.0?±?0.7%. The modelled net N₂O emissions for the region for the year ended June 1990 were 3.8?±?2.1 Gg N₂O–N per year, indicating annual net N₂O emissions in the Manawatu–Wanganui region between 1990 and 2003 had increased by 0.8?±?0.6 Gg N₂O–N (an increase of about 20%). This change can be attributed to both changes in weather conditions and land use and farm management between 1990 and 2003.     

Growth responses of yellow-poplar(Liriodendron tulipifera L.) exposed to 5 years of O3 aloneor combined with elevated CO2

Field‐grown yellow‐poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.) werefumigated from May to October in 1992–96 within open‐topchambers to determine the impact of ozone (O₃) aloneor combined with elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) on saplinggrowth. Treatments were replicated three times and included: charcoal‐filteredair (CF); 1 × ambient ozone (1 × O₃);1·5 × ambient ozone (1·5 × O₃);1·5 × ambient ozone plus 350 p.p.m.carbon dioxide (1·5 × O₃ + CO₂)(target of 700 p.p.m. CO₂); and open‐air chamberlessplot (OA). After five seasons, the total cumulative O₃ exposure (SUM₀₀ = sumof hourly O₃ concentrations during the study) rangedfrom 145 (CF) to 861 (1·5 × O₃) p.p.m. × h (partsper million hour). Ozone had no statistically significant effecton yellow‐poplar growth or biomass, even though total root biomasswas reduced by 13% in the 1·5 × O₃‐exposedsaplings relative to CF controls. Although exposure to 1·5 × O₃ + CO₂ hada stimulatory effect on yearly basal area growth increment aftertwo seasons, significant increases in shoot and root biomass (～ 60% increaserelative to all others) were not detected until the fifth season.After five seasons, the yearly basal area growth increment of saplingsexposed to 1·5 × O₃ + CO₂‐air increasedby 41% relative to all others. Based on this multi‐yearstudy, it appears that chronic O₃ effects on yellow‐poplargrowth are limited and slow to manifest, and are consistent withprevious studies that show yellow‐poplar growth is not highly responsiveto O₃ exposure. In addition, these results show thatenriched CO₂ may ameliorate the negative effects of elevatedO₃ on yellow‐poplar shoot growth and root biomass underfield conditions.     

Interactive effects of low atmospheric CO2 and elevated temperature on growth, photosynthesis and respiration in Phaseolus vulgaris

For most of the past 250 000 years, atmospheric CO₂ has been 30–50% lower than the current level of 360 μmol CO₂ mol^–1 air. Although the effects of CO₂ on plant performance are well recognized, the effects of low CO₂ in combination with abiotic stress remain poorly understood. In this study, a growth chamber experiment using a two-by-two factorial design of CO₂ (380 μmol mol^–1, 200 μmol mol^–1) and temperature (25/20 °C day/night, 36/29 °C) was conducted to evaluate the interactive effects of CO₂ and temperature variation on growth, tissue chemistry and leaf gas exchange of Phaseolus vulgaris. Relative to plants grown at 380 μmol mol^–1 and 25/20 °C, whole plant biomass was 36% less at 380 μmol mol^–1× 36/29 °C, and 37% less at 200 μmol mol^–1× 25/20 °C. Most significantly, growth at 200 μmol mol^–1× 36/29 °C resulted in 77% less biomass relative to plants grown at 380 μmol mol^–1× 25/20 °C. The net CO₂ assimilation rate of leaves grown in 200 μmol mol^–1× 25/20 °C was 40% lower than in leaves from 380 μmol mol^–1× 25/20 °C, but similar to leaves in 200 μmol mol^–1× 36/29 °C. The leaves produced in low CO₂ and high temperature respired at a rate that was double that of leaves from the 380μmol mol^–1× 25/20 °C treatment. Despite this, there was little evidence that leaves at low CO₂ and high temperature were carbohydrate deficient, because soluble sugars, starch and total non-structural carbohydrates of leaves from the 200μmol mol^–1× 36/29 °C treatment were not significantly different in leaves from the 380μmol mol^–1× 25/20 °C treatment. Similarly, there was no significant difference in percentage root carbon, leaf chlorophyll and leaf/root nitrogen between the low CO₂× high temperature treatment and ambient CO₂ controls. Decreased plant growth was correlated with neither leaf gas exchange nor tissue chemistry. Rather, leaf and root growth were the most affected responses, declining in equivalent proportions as total biomass production. Because of this close association, the mechanisms controlling leaf and root growth appear to have the greatest control over the response to heat stress and CO₂ reduction in P. vulgaris.     

Effects of elevated CO₂, warming and drought episodes on plant carbon uptake in a temperate heath ecosystem are controlled by soil water status

The impact of elevated CO₂, periodic drought and warming on photosynthesis and leaf characteristics of the evergreen dwarf shrub Calluna vulgaris in a temperate heath ecosystem was investigated. Photosynthesis was reduced by drought in midsummer and increased by elevated CO₂ throughout the growing season, whereas warming only stimulated photosynthesis early in the year. At the beginning and end of the growing season, a T × CO₂ interaction synergistically stimulated plant carbon uptake in the combination of warming and elevated CO₂. At peak drought, the D × CO₂ interaction antagonistically down‐regulated photosynthesis, suggesting a limited ability of elevated CO₂ to counteract the negative effect of drought. The response of photosynthesis in the full factorial combination (TDCO₂) could be explained by the main effect of experimental treatments (T, D, CO₂) and the two‐factor interactions (D × CO₂, T × CO₂). The interactive responses in the experimental treatments including elevated CO₂ seemed to be linked to the realized range of treatment variability, for example with negative effects following experimental drought or positive effects following the relatively higher impact of night‐time warming during cold periods early and late in the year. Longer‐term experiments are needed to evaluate whether photosynthetic down‐regulation will dampen the stimulation of photosynthesis under prolonged exposure to elevated CO₂.     

Effects of CO2 and light on tree phytochemistry and insect performance

Direct and interactive effects of CO₂ and light on tree phytochemistry and insect fitness parameters were examined through experimental manipulations of plant growth conditions and performance of insect bioassays. Three species of deciduous trees (quaking aspen, Populus tremuloides; paper birch, Betula papyrifera; sugar maple, Acer saccharum) were grown under ambient (387±8 μL/L) and elevated (696±2 μL/L) levels of atmospheric CO₂, with low and high light availability (375 and 855 μmol×m^?2×s^?1 at solar noon). Effects on the population and individual performance of a generalist phytophagous insect, the white‐marked tussock moth (Orgyia leucostigma) were evaluated. Caterpillars were reared on experimental trees for the duration of the larval stage, and complementary short‐term (fourth instar) feeding trials were conducted with insects fed detached leaves.
Phytochemical analyses demonstrated strong effects of both CO₂ and light on all foliar nutritional variables (water, starch and nitrogen). For all species, enriched CO₂ decreased water content and increased starch content, especially under high light conditions. High CO₂ availability reduced levels of foliar nitrogen, but effects were species specific and most pronounced for high light aspen and birch. Analyses of secondary plant compounds revealed that levels of phenolic glycosides (salicortin and tremulacin) in aspen and condensed tannins in birch and maple were positively influenced by levels of both CO₂ and light. In contrast, levels of condensed tannins in aspen were primarily affected by light, whereas levels of ellagitannins and gallotannins in maple responded to light and CO₂, respectively.
The long‐term bioassays showed strong treatment effects on survival, development time, and pupal mass. In general, CO₂ effects were pronounced in high light and decreased along the gradient aspen birch maple. For larvae reared on high light aspen, enriched CO₂ resulted in 62% fewer survivors, with increased development time, and reduced pupal mass. For maple‐fed insects, elevated CO₂ levels had negative effects on survival and pupal mass in low light. For birch, the only negative CO₂ effects were observed in high light, where female larvae showed prolonged development. Fourth instar feeding trials demonstrated that low food conversion efficiency reduced insect performance. Elevated levels of CO₂ significantly reduced total consumption, especially by insects on high light aspen and low light maple.
This research demonstrates that effects of CO₂ on phytochemistry and insect performance can be strongly light‐dependent, and that plant responses to these two environmental variables differ among species. Overall, increased CO₂ availability appeared to increase the defensive capacity of early‐successional species primarily under high light conditions, and of late‐successional species under low light conditions. Due to the interactive effects of tree species, light, CO₂, and herbivory, community composition of forests may change in the future.     

Effects of 21st‐century climate,land use,and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO₂. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by ?188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of ?89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of ?9.4% (?432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from ?916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO₂ is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated.     

Precipitation‐drainage cycles lead to hot moments in soil carbon dioxide dynamics in a Neotropical wet forest

Soil CO₂ concentrations and emissions from tropical forests are modulated seasonally by precipitation. However, subseasonal responses to meteorological events (e.g., storms, drought) are less well known. Here, we present the effects of meteorological variability on short‐term (hours to months) dynamics of soil CO₂ concentrations and emissions in a Neotropical wet forest. We continuously monitored soil temperature, moisture, and CO₂ for a three‐year period (2015–2017), encompassing normal conditions, floods, a dry El Niño period, and a hurricane. We used a coupled model (Hydrus‐1D) for soil water propagation, heat transfer, and diffusive gas transport to explain observed soil moisture, soil temperature, and soil CO₂ concentration responses to meteorology, and we estimated soil CO₂ efflux with a gradient‐flux model. Then, we predicted changes in soil CO₂ concentrations and emissions under different warming climate change scenarios. Observed short‐term (hourly to daily) soil CO₂ concentration responded more to precipitation than to other meteorological variables (including lower pressure during the hurricane). Observed soil CO₂ failed to exhibit diel patterns (associated with diel temperature fluctuations in drier climates), except during the drier El Niño period. Climate change scenarios showed enhanced soil CO₂ due to warmer conditions, while precipitation played a critical role in moderating the balance between concentrations and emissions. The scenario with increased precipitation (based on a regional model projection) led to increases of +11% in soil CO₂ concentrations and +4% in soil CO₂ emissions. The scenario with decreased precipitation (based on global circulation model projections) resulted in increases of +4% in soil CO₂ concentrations and +18% in soil CO₂ emissions, and presented more prominent hot moments in soil CO₂ outgassing. These findings suggest that soil CO₂ will increase under warmer climate in tropical wet forests, and precipitation patterns will define the intensity of CO₂ outgassing hot moments.     

Individual and interactive effects of temperature,carbon dioxide and abscisic acid on mung bean (Vigna radiata) plants

We studied the effects of temperature, carbon dioxide and abscisic acid on mung bean (Vigna radiata). Plants were grown under 26/22°C or 32/28°C (16?h?light/8?h?dark) at 400 or 700?μmol?mol^?1 CO₂ and received ABA application of 0 or 100?μl (10?μg) every other day for three weeks, after eight days of initial growth, in growth chambers. We measured 24 parameters. As individual factors, in 16 cases temperature; in 8 cases CO₂; in 9 cases ABA; and as interactive factors, in 4 cases, each of temperature?×?CO₂, and CO₂?×?ABA; and in 2 cases, temperature?×?ABA were significant. Higher temperatures increased growth, aboveground biomass, growth indices, photochemical quenching (qP) and nitrogen balance index (NBI). Elevated CO₂ increased growth and aboveground biomass. ABA decreased growth, belowground biomass, qP and flavonoids; increased shoot/root mass ratio, chlorophyll and NBI; and had little role in regulating temperature–CO₂ effects.

Abbreviations: A_N: net CO₂ assimilation; E: transpiration; F_v/F_m: maximum quantum yield of PSII; g_s: stomatal conductance; LAR: leaf area ratio; LMA: leaf mass per area; LMR: leaf mass ratio;φPSII: effective quantum yield of PSII; qNP: non-photochemical quenching; qP: photochemical quenching; SRMR: shoot to root mass ratio; WUE: water use efficiency     

Response of isoprene emission to ambient CO2 changes and implications for global budgets

We explore the potential role of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) on isoprene emissions using a global coupled land–atmosphere model [Community Atmospheric Model–Community Land Model (CAM–CLM)] for recent (year 2000, 365 ppm CO₂) and future (year 2100, 717 ppm CO₂) conditions. We incorporate an empirical model of observed isoprene emissions response to both ambient CO₂ concentrations in the long‐term growth environment and short‐term changes in intercellular CO₂ concentrations into the MEGAN biogenic emission model embedded within the CLM. Accounting for CO₂ inhibition has little impact on predictions of present‐day global isoprene emission (increase from 508 to 523 Tg C yr^?1). However, the large increases in future isoprene emissions typically predicted in models, which are due to a projected warmer climate, are entirely offset by including the CO₂ effects. Projected global isoprene emissions in 2100 drop from 696 to 479 Tg C yr^?1 when this effect is included, maintaining future isoprene sources at levels similar to present day. The isoprene emission response to CO₂ is dominated by the long‐term growth environment effect, with modulations of 10% or less due to the variability in intercellular CO₂ concentration. As a result, perturbations to isoprene emissions associated with changes in ambient CO₂ are largely aseasonal, with little diurnal variability. Future isoprene emissions increase by more than a factor of two in 2100 (to 1242 Tg C yr^?1) when projected changes in vegetation distribution and leaf area density are included. Changing land cover and the role of nutrient limitation on CO₂ fertilization therefore remain the largest source of uncertainty in isoprene emission prediction. Although future projections suggest a compensatory balance between the effects of temperature and CO₂ on isoprene emission, the enhancement of isoprene emission due to lower ambient CO₂ concentrations did not compensate for the effect of cooler temperatures over the last 400 thousand years of the geologic record (including the Last Glacial Maximum).     

Development of human health damage factors related to CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions by considering future socioeconomic scenarios

Purpose

Global warming is exerting a damaging effect on human health. This damage is not only influenced by future climate conditions but also projected economic development and population growth. That being said, there are no health damage factors related to CO₂ emissions which take into account future socioeconomic scenarios in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). Thus, the purpose of the current research is to calculate human health damage factors based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRESs) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Methods

The procedure used to calculate the SRES-based damage factors is as follows. First, a framework was developed to calculate damage factors based on multiple parameters: rise in temperature, relative risk increase, mortality rate increase, rise in number of deaths, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) increase. Secondly, these parameters were calculated for each individual SRES based on the relationship among the parameters and CO₂ emissions, GDP, and population values of each scenario. Finally, the damage factor for each SRES was calculated by multiplying all the parameters that had been calculated based on the CO₂ emission, GDP, and population data in the corresponding scenarios.

Results and discussion

Using this method, the human health damage factors for four SRESs (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) were calculated. The damage factors consisted of six different items: malaria, diarrhea, cardiovascular disease, malnutrition, coastal flooding, and inland flooding. The calculated results by scenario were 2.0?×?10^?7, 6.2?×?10^?7, 2.1?×?10^?7, and 4.2?×?10^?7 DALY/kg CO₂, respectively. The damage caused by malnutrition is the greatest, followed by diarrhea. Regions of Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East showed the highest damages due to their high damage from malnutrition and diarrhea. With regard to the differences among the four damage factors, the difference between the projected future mortality rate and DALY per death based on the future GDP per capita is greater than the difference between the increases in temperature among scenarios dependent on future CO₂ emission.

Conclusions

The human health damage factors related to CO₂ emissions for four SRESs were estimated. As a result of differences between future socioeconomic scenarios, the largest amount of damage per CO₂ emission unit was three times greater than the smallest amount. Therefore, sensitive analysis is highly recommended when seeking to compare damage caused by global warming and other impact categories.

     

Wood properties of two silver birch clones exposed to elevated CO2 and O3

Effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) and ozone (O₃) on wood properties of two initially 7‐year‐old silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) clones were studied after a fumigation during three growing seasons. Forty trees, representing two fast‐growing clones (4 and 80), were exposed in open‐top chambers to the following treatments: outside control, chamber control, 2 × ambient [CO₂], 2 × ambient [O₃] and 2 × ambient [CO₂]+2 × ambient [O₃]. After the 3‐year exposure, the trees were felled and wood properties were analyzed. The treatments affected both stem wood structure and chemistry. Elevated [CO₂] increased annual ring width, and concentrations of extractives and starch, and decreased concentrations of cellulose and gravimetric lignin. Elevated O₃ decreased vessel percentage and increased cell wall percentage in clone 80. In vessel percentage, elevated CO₂ ameliorated the O₃‐induced decrease. In clone 4, elevated O₃ decreased nitrogen concentration of wood. The two clones had different wood properties. In clone 4, the concentrations of extractives, starch, soluble sugars and nitrogen were greater than in clone 80, while in clone 80 the concentrations of cellulose and acid‐soluble lignin were higher. Clone 4 also had slightly longer fibres, greater vessel lumen diameter and vessel percentage than clone 80, while in clone 80 cell wall percentage was greater. Our results show that wood properties of young silver birch trees were altered under elevated CO₂ in both clones, whereas the effects of O₃ depended on clone.