Can paternal preconceptional radiation account for the increase of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in Seascale?

OBJECTIVE--To determine if the excess of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma in Seascale is restricted to those born in the parish and whether it might be explained by the postulated relation with paternal preconceptional radiation. DESIGN--Comparison, separately for those born in the parish and those born elsewhere, of the numbers of these malignancies observed in Seascale with those expected on the basis of reference rates for England and Wales. Details of paternal radiation levels were sought for each case. SETTING--The parish of Seascale in west Cumbria. SUBJECTS--Residents of Seascale below age 25 years in the years 1951-91. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The observed and expected numbers of cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma within Seascale among those born there and among those born elsewhere. Also, the levels of any paternal preconceptional radiation associated with each case. RESULTS--A significant excess of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma at ages 0-24 was found in Seascale in those who were born there (ratio of observed to expected cases 8.6 and 20.2 respectively; p < 0.01). This also applied to those not born there (7.2 and 16.5; p < 0.01), a group often regarded as not showing an excess. The estimates were then conservatively recalculated so as to overestimate the risks among those born in Seascale and underestimate them among those born elsewhere. On this basis the six cases in those born in Seascale compare with 0.38 expected (15.8; p < 0.001), of which two were associated with paternal preconceptional life-time levels of 100 mSv or greater and three others with levels of 90-99 mSv. Among those born elsewhere, there were five cases (expected 0.74; ratio 6.7, p < 0.01), of which only one was associated with a high level of such radiation. CONCLUSIONS--Paternal preconceptional radiation cannot be the sole cause of the excess in Seascale since it will not explain the excess among those born outside Seascale. It follows that, unless two causes are to be postulated, any single cause must be a factor other than paternal preconceptional radiation. On this basis, the association found among those born there, if not partly due to chance, may reflect an indirect relation with the true cause. The recent hypothesis about such paternal radiation has originated in a subgroup of the excess cases that have aroused concern.     

Follow up study of children born elsewhere but attending schools in Seascale,West Cumbria (schools cohort).

Records on 1546 children who were identified as having attended schools in Seascale up to November 1984 and were born since 1950 but not in the civil parish were studied. These children lived in or near Seascale for a period of time while they were attending one or more of three local schools and are an additional group to the 1068 children who were identified as born to mothers resident in Seascale in an accompanying study. Even though some of the schoolchildren apparently remained in the village for a short period only all but 7% were followed up through the National Health Service Central Register. Mortality among these children to 30 June 1986 is comparable to that expected at national rates. From all causes there were 10 observed deaths compared with 12.69 expected--a ratio of 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.38 to 1.45)--and from cancer one observed death compared with 2.04 expected--a ratio of 0.49 (95% CI 0.01 to 2.73). No deaths from leukaemia or lymphoma were reported, but only 0.83 was expected. Since 1971 (the year when cases of cancer were first notified to the NHS Central Register) three non-fatal cases of cancer were reported, including two lymphomas, compared with 2.04 expected and two cases of carcinoma in situ of the cervix compared with 1.79 expected. In addition, there was a case of leukaemia among the schoolchildren which was known previously and had been diagnosed in 1968. There is an interesting difference between the results of this study and the results of the study of children born to mothers who were resident in Seascale. In the latter study there was an excess of leukaemia and of other cancers, but a similar finding is not apparent among children who spent some time at schools in Seascale but were born elsewhere. This raises the question of whether one or more aetiological factors in childhood cancer were acting on a locality specific basis before birth or early in life. This cannot be answered from these cohort studies, but it is hoped that the case-control study that is under way in West Cumbria will provide relevant information.     

Geographical distribution of preconceptional radiation doses to fathers employed at the Sellafield nuclear installation,West Cumbria.

OBJECTIVE--To examine whether the geographical distribution of births associated with preconceptional exposure of fathers to radiation at the Sellafield nuclear installation is consistent with the suggestion that this exposure explains the excess of childhood lymphoid malignancy in the adjacent village of Seascale. DESIGN--Retrospective birth cohort study. SETTING--Cumbria, West Cumbria health district, and Seascale civil parish. SUBJECTS--The 10,363 children born in Cumbria during 1950-89 to fathers employed at Sellafield. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The doses of external whole body ionising radiation received by fathers at Sellafield in the total time and in the six months before conception of their children; the proportions of the collective doses associated with Seascale and the rest of West Cumbria. RESULTS--9256 children were born to fathers who had been exposed to radiation before the child''s conception. Of these, 7318 had fathers who were exposed in the six months before conception. Overall 7% (38 person-Sv) of the collective total preconceptional dose and 7% (3 person-Sv) of the collective dose for the six months before conception were associated with children born in Seascale. Of all the children whose fathers worked at Sellafield, 842 (8%) were born in Seascale. The mean individual doses before conception were consistently lower in Seascale than in the rest of West Cumbria. CONCLUSIONS--The distribution of the paternal preconceptional radiation dose is statistically incompatible with this exposure providing a causal explanation for the cluster of childhood leukaemias in Seascale.     

Childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma near large rural construction sites,with a comparison with Sellafield nuclear site.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether population mixing produced by large, non-nuclear construction projects in rural areas is associated with an increase in childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma. DESIGN--A study of the incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma among children living near large construction projects in Britain since 1945, situated more than 20 km from a population centre, involving a workforce of more than 1000, and built over three or more calendar years. For periods before 1962 mortality was studied. SETTING--Areas within 10 km of relevant sites, and the highland counties of Scotland with many hydroelectric schemes. SUBJECTS--Children aged under 15. RESULTS--A 37% excess of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma at 0-14 years of age was recorded during construction and the following calendar year. The excesses were greater at times when construction workers and operating staff overlapped (72%), particularly in areas of relatively high social class. For several sites the excesses were similar to or greater than that near the nuclear site of Sellafield (67%), which is distinctive in its large workforce with many construction workers. Seascale, near Sellafield, with a ninefold increase had an unusually high proportion of residents in social class I. The only study parish of comparable social class also showed a significant excess, with a confidence interval that included the Seascale excess. CONCLUSION--The findings support the infection hypothesis and reinforce the view that the excess of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma near Sellafield has a similar explanation.     

Childhood leukaemia in the West Berkshire and Basingstoke and North Hampshire District Health Authorities in relation to nuclear establishments in the vicinity.

During the years 1972-85, 89 children aged 0-14 were registered with leukaemia in the West Berkshire and Basingstoke and North Hampshire District Health Authorities. Two nuclear establishments are located within the health authorities, and a third is situated nearby. Fifty of the 143 electoral wards in the two district health authorities lie wholly within, or have at least half their area lying within, a circle of radius 10 km around the establishments. In those 50 electoral wards 41 children aged 0-14 were registered with leukaemia, 28.6 registrations being expected on the basis of leukaemia registration rates in England and Wales (incidence ratio = 1.4, p less than 0.05). This excess was confined to children aged 0-4, among whom there were 29 registrations of leukaemia, 14.4 being expected (incidence ratio = 2.0, p less than 0.001). In the remaining 93 electoral wards there was a small and non-significant increase in the number of registrations of leukaemia at age 0-14 (48 observed, 40.8 expected; incidence ratio = 1.2). There was no obvious trend in the incidence of childhood leukaemia over the 14 years and the overall occurrence of the malignancy in the 143 electoral wards was consistent with a random distribution. In the surrounding Oxford and Wessex Regional Health Authorities the number of registrations of leukaemia at age 0-14 was virtually identical with that expected on the basis of registration rates in England and Wales (362 observed, 372.5 expected; incidence ratio = 1.0). These data indicate that in the two district health authorities studied there was an excess incidence of childhood leukaemia during 1972-85 in the vicinity of the nuclear establishments. In the West Berkshire and Basingstoke and North Hampshire District Health Authorities an average of 60,000 children aged 0-14 lived within a 10 km radius of a nuclear establishment each year. The normal expectation of leukaemia in these children was two cases a year, whereas the recorded incidence was three cases per year, representing one extra case of leukaemia each year among these 60,000 children.     

Results of case-control study of leukaemia and lymphoma among young people near Sellafield nuclear plant in West Cumbria.

OBJECTIVE--To examine whether the observed excess of childhood leukaemia and lymphoma near the Sellafield nuclear plant is associated with established risk factors or with factors related to the plant. DESIGN--A case-control study. SETTING--West Cumbria health district. SUBJECTS--52 Cases of leukaemia, 22 of non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma, and 23 of Hodgkin''s disease occurring in people born in the area and diagnosed there in 1950-85 under the age of 25 and 1001 controls matched for sex and date of birth taken from the same birth registers as the cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Antenatal abdominal x ray examinations, viral infections, habit factors, proximity to and employment characteristics of parents at Sellafield. RESULTS--Expected associations with prenatal exposure to x rays were found, but little information was available on viral illnesses. Relative risks for leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma were higher in children born near Sellafield and in children of fathers employed at the plant, particularly those with high radiation dose recordings before their child''s conception. For example, the relative risks compared with area controls were 0.17 (95% confidence interval 0.05 to 0.53) for being born further than 5 km from Sellafield 2.44 (1.04 to 5.71) for children of fathers employed at Sellafield at their conception, and 6.42 (1.57 to 26.3) for children of fathers receiving a total preconceptual ionising radiation dose of 100 mSv or more. Other factors, including exposure to x rays, maternal age, employment elsewhere, eating seafood, and playing on the beach did not explain these relationships. Focusing on Seascale, where the excess incidence has predominantly been reported, showed for the four out of five cases of leukaemia and one case of non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma whose fathers were employed at Sellafield and for whom dose information was obtained that the fathers of each case had higher radiation doses before their child''s conception than all their matched control fathers; the father of the other Seascale case (non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma) was not employed at the plant. These results seem to explain statistically the geographical association. For Hodgkin''s disease neither geographical nor employment associations with Sellafield were found. CONCLUSIONS--The raised incidence of leukaemia, particularly, and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma among children near Sellafield was associated with paternal employment and recorded external dose of whole body penetrating radiation during work at the plant before conception. The association can explain statistically the observed geographical excess. This result suggests an effect of ionising radiation on fathers that may be leukaemogenic in their offspring, though other, less likely, explanations are possible. There are important potential implications for radiobiology and for protection of radiation workers and their children.     

Fallout from Chernobyl and incidence of childhood leukaemia in Finland, 1976-92.

OBJECTIVE--To assess effects of fallout from Chernobyl on incidence of childhood leukaemia in Finland. DESIGN--Nationwide cohort study. External exposure measured for 455 Finnish municipalities with instruments driven 19,000 km throughout the country. Values specific to municipalities corrected for shielding due to houses and fallout from A bomb testing. Internal exposure estimated from whole body measurements on a random sample of 81 children. Mean effective dose for two years after incident calculated from these measurements. Data on childhood leukaemia obtained from Finnish cancer registry and verified through hospitals treating childhood cancers. SETTING--Finland, one of the countries most heavily contaminated by the Chernobyl accident; the population was divided into fifths by exposure. SUBJECTS--Children aged 0-14 years in 1976-92. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Standardised incidence ratio of childhood leukaemia and relative excess risk of childhood leukaemia per mSv. From incidence data of Finnish cancer registry for 1976-85, expected numbers specific to sex and age group (0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years) were calculated for each municipality for three periods (1976-85, 1986-8, and 1989-92) and pooled as exposure fifths. Dose response was estimated as regression slope of standardised incidence ratios on mean doses for fifths for each period. RESULTS--Population weighted mean effective doses for first two years after the accident were 410 microSv for the whole country and 970 microSv for the population fifth with the highest dose. In all Finland the incidence of childhood leukaemia did not increase 1976-92. The relative excess risk 1989-92 was not significantly different from zero (7% per mSv; 95% confidence interval -27% to 41%). CONCLUSIONS--An important increase in childhood leukaemia can be excluded. Any effect is smaller than eight extra cases per million children per year in Finland. The results are consistent with the magnitude of effect expected.     

Follow up study of children born to mothers resident in Seascale,West Cumbria (birth cohort).

Records on 1068 children who were born to mothers resident in Seascale Civil Parish during 1950-83 were studied. There was a large degree of mobility among the families, and nearly half of the children did not subsequently attend the main local school. Use of the National Health Service Central Register, however, enabled us to follow up the children''s records regardless of place of residence. The excess of leukaemia among Seascale children first supported from the analysis of geographical areas is confirmed. There were five deaths from leukaemia identified to 30 June 1986 compared with 0.53 expected at national rates--a ratio of 9.36 (95% confidence interval 3.04 to 21.84). One of these deaths occurred after the child had left Seascale. There were four deaths from other cancers compared with 1.06 expected--a ratio of 3.76 (95% CI 1.02 to 9.63). In addition, three further cases of cancer, apart from the deaths, were reported compared with 1.19 expected since 1971--a ratio of 2.53 (95% CI 0.52 to 7.40). For other causes of death, including stillbirths and infant mortality, there was a reported deficit compared with national rates, some of which at least was to be expected on the basis of the social class composition of the population of Seascale. In view of the importance of this cohort of births continued follow up is planned, with the possibility of extending it to include births since 1983, and the methods available for this type of study will be examined further.     

Effect of population mixing and socioeconomic status in England and Wales, 1979-85, on lymphoblastic leukaemia in children.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of migration, diversity of migrant origins, commuting, and socioeconomic status on the incidence of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in childhood. DESIGN: Poisson regression analysis of incidence rates in relation to the variables of interest. SETTING: The 403 county districts of England and Wales during 1979-85. SUBJECTS: Children aged under 15 years. RESULTS: There were significant trends in the incidence of lymphoblastic leukaemia at ages 0-4 and 5-9 years with the proportion of children in a district who had recently entered the district. While there was no consistent relation between the proportion of recent incomers in the total population of a district and its incidence rate, the combination of higher migration with greater diversity of origins or distance moved was associated with higher incidence in both age groups. Incidence increased significantly at age 0-4 with the level of employment in a district and at age 5-9 with the proportion of households with access to a car. No significant trends were found with commuting. CONCLUSIONS: The results for level of child migration and diversity of total migration provide evidence of an effect of population mixing on the incidence of childhood leukaemia which is not restricted to areas experiencing the most extreme levels of mixing.     

Trends in childhood leukaemia in the Nordic countries in relation to fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing.

OBJECTIVE--To obtain further information about the risks of childhood leukaemia after exposure to ionising radiation at low doses and low dose rates before or after birth or to the father''s testes shortly before conception. DESIGN--Observational study of trends in incidence of childhood leukaemia in relation to estimated radiation exposures due to fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing during the 1950s and 1960s. SETTING--Nordic countries. SUBJECTS--Children aged under 15 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Incidence rates of leukaemia by age at diagnosis, sex, country, and calendar year of diagnosis or year of birth; exposure category; relation between leukaemia and exposure for children aged 0-14 and 0-4 separately. RESULTS--During the high fallout period the average estimated dose equivalent to the fetal red bone marrow was around 140 mu Sv and the average annual testicular dose 140 mu Sv. There was little evidence of increased incidence of leukaemia among children born in these years. Doses to the red bone marrow of a child after birth were higher, and during the high exposure period children would have been subjected to an additional dose equivalent of around 1500 mu Sv, similar to doses received by children in several parts of central and eastern Europe owing to the Chernobyl accident and about 50% greater than the annual dose equivalent to the red bone marrow of a child from natural radiation. leukaemia incidence and red marrow dose was not related overall, but rates of leukaemia in the high exposure period were slightly higher than in the surrounding medium exposure period (relative risk for ages 0-14: 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.14; for ages 0-4: 1.11, 1.00 to 1.24). CONCLUSIONS--Current predicted risks of childhood leukaemia after exposure to radiation are not greatly underestimated for low dose rate exposures.     

Risk of cancer in Finnish children living close to power lines.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the risk of cancer in children living close to overhead power lines with magnetic fields of > or = 0.01 microteslas (microT). DESIGN--Cohort study. SETTING--The whole of Finland. SUBJECTS--68,300 boys and 66,500 girls aged 0-19 years living during 1970-89 within 500 m of overhead power lines of 110-400 kV in magnetic fields calculated to be > or = 0.01 microT. Subjects were identified by record linkages of nationwide registers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Numbers of observed cases in follow up for cancer and standardised incidence ratios for all cancers and particularly for nervous system tumours, leukaemia, and lymphoma. RESULTS--In the whole cohort 140 cases of cancer were observed (145 expected; standardised incidence ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 1.1). No statistically significant increases in all cancers and in leukaemia and lymphoma were found in children at any exposure level. A statistically significant excess of nervous system tumours was found in boys (but not in girls) who were exposed to magnetic fields of > or = 0.20 microT or cumulative exposure of > or = 0.40 microT years. CONCLUSIONS--Residentia magnetic fields of transmission power lines do not constitute a major public health problem regarding childhood cancer. The small numbers do not allow further conclusions about the risk of cancer in stronger magnetic fields.     

Risk of acute childhood leukaemia in Sweden after the Chernobyl reactor accident. Swedish Child Leukaemia Group.

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the risk of acute childhood leukaemia in areas of Sweden contaminated after the Chernobyl reactor accident in April 1986. DESIGN--Population based study of childhood leukaemia diagnosed during 1980-92. SETTING--Coordinates for places of residence of all 1.6 million children aged 0-15 years; aerial mapped areas of Sweden heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. SUBJECTS--888 children aged 0-15 years with acute leukaemia diagnosed in Sweden during 1980-92, identified with place of birth and residence at diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Risk of leukaemia in areas contaminated after the Chernobyl accident compared with the rest of Sweden and in the same areas before the accident. RESULTS--During six and a half years of follow up after the accident the odds ratio for acute leukaemia was 0.9 (95% confidence interval 0.6 to 1.4) in highly contaminated areas (> or = 10 kBq/m2) compared with the same areas before the accident. For the subgroup acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children aged under 5 years at diagnosis the odds ratio was 1.5 (0.8 to 2.6). For all cases diagnosed after May 1986 in highly contaminated areas compared with areas of low contamination the odds ratio was 0.9 (0.7 to 1.3). For acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children aged under 5 years at diagnosis the odds ratio was 1.2 (0.8 to 1.9) in highly contaminated areas compared with areas of low contamination. Dose-response analysis showed no correlation between the degree of contamination and the incidence of childhood leukaemia. CONCLUSION--There has been no significant increase in the incidence of acute childhood leukaemia in areas of Sweden contaminated after the Chernobyl reactor accident.     

Relative risks of radiation-associated cancer: comparison of second cancer in therapeutically irradiated populations with the Japanese atomic bomb survivors

In this paper the radiation-associated relative risks of second primary cancer incidence in groups treated for first primary cancer by radiotherapy are compared with radiation-associated relative risk estimates in the Japanese atomic bomb survivor cancer incidence data. For four cancer sites, namely lung cancer, bone cancer, ovarian cancer and leukaemia, the relative risks in the comparable (age at exposure, time since exposure, sex matched) subsets of the Japanese data are significantly greater than those in the majority of second cancer studies. Even when the differences between the relative risks in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and the medical series do not approach conventional levels of statistical significance, relative risks tend to be higher in the Japanese data than in the second cancer studies. At least for leukaemia, the discrepancy between the Japanese and second cancer risks can be largely explained by cell- sterilisation effects. There are few indications of modification of radiation-associated second cancer relative risk among those treated with adjuvant chemotherapy, nor are there strong indications of modification of radiation- associated relative risk by heritable genetic factors. If anything, there is evidence that second cancer relative excess risks are lower among those patients with cancer-prone disorders than among non-susceptible patients. However, the higher underlying cancer risk in some of these medically exposed populations should also be considered, in particular for those with cancer-prone conditions, so that the absolute excess risk is sometimes higher than in the Japanese data. Received: 14 May 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 17 September 1999     

Wartime evacuation and mortality from childhood leukaemia in England and Wales in 1945-9.

OBJECTIVE--To discover whether the wartime government evacuation of children from London and other population centres to rural districts was associated with any increase in childhood leukaemia. DESIGN--Observational study of mortality from leukaemia among the childhood population of England and Wales in relation to the unique population movements during the second world war. The 476 rural districts of England and Wales were ranked according to the ratio of government evacuees (two thirds of them children) to local children in September 1941. The districts were divided into three categories, each with similar numbers of children in 1947 but with different ratios of evacuees to local children ("low," "intermediate," "high"). Mortality from childhood leukaemia was examined in these three rural categories in 1945-9. Urban areas were also examined according to their exposure to evacuees. SETTING--Local authority areas of England and Wales. SUBJECTS--Children aged under 15. RESULTS--47% excess of leukaemia at ages 0-14 years occurred in 1945-9 in the rural "high" category for evacuees relative to the "low" category, with a significant trend across the three categories. There were increases in both the 0-4 and 5-14 year age groups, but these were larger in the older age group. Rates 25% lower than average occurred in rural areas with few evacuees. CONCLUSION--These findings suggest that wartime evacuation increased the incidence of childhood leukaemia in rural areas and that other forms of population mixing may have contributed to the increases in past decades. Overall, they add to the appreciable evidence for an infective basis in childhood leukaemia.     

Studies on bcl-2 protein in cultured lymphoid cells.

Bc1-2 protein was analysed in cell cultures derived from non-Hodgkin lymphomas and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia patients. The presence of bc1-2 proto-oncogene protein product has been demonstrated on cytospin preparations utilising immunochemical methods. The correlation between the expression of the bc1-2 protein and the appearance of proliferation- or differentiation related figures was studied. The reported bc1-2 up regulation in malignant lymphoid cells was confirmed in haemo- and lymphopoietic progenitor cells as well as in TPA/PHA activated peripheral blood lymphocytes. In comparison to neoplastic cells lower intensity of bc1-2 positive staining in freshly isolated cells from non-leukaemic tissue was observed.     

Risk of primary haematologic cancers following incident non-metastatic breast cancer: A Danish population-based cohort study

BackgroundBreast cancer survivors may have increased risk of subsequent haematologic cancer. We compared their risk of haematologic cancers with the general population during 38 years of follow-up.MethodsUsing population-based Danish medical registries, we assembled a nationwide cohort of women diagnosed with incident non-metastatic breast cancer during 1980–2017, with follow-up through 2018. We compared breast cancer survivors with the general population by computing standardised incidence ratios (SIR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsAmong 101,117 breast cancer survivors, we observed 815 incident haematologic cancers (median follow-up: 7.9 years). We observed excess risk of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) (SIR: 1.65, 95%CI: 1.33–2.01), particularly in women who received chemotherapy (SIR: 3.33, 95%CI: 2.24–4.75) and premenopausal women (SIR: 3.23, 95%CI: 2.41–4.25). The risk of acute lymphoid leukaemia (ALL) was increased (SIR: 2.25, 95%CI: 1.29–3.66), whereas the risk of chronic lymphoid leukaemia (CLL) was decreased (SIR: 0.66, 95%CI: 0.53–0.82). An additional analysis showed elevated risk of CLL 0–6 months after breast cancer diagnosis (SIR: 3.00 95%CI: 1.75–4.80).ConclusionCompared to the general population, breast cancer survivors had elevated risk of AML, particularly when treated with chemotherapy. The risk of ALL was elevated, whereas the risk of CLL was lower. The higher risk of CLL in the first six months after diagnosis likely reflects surveillance bias—due to intensified diagnostic efforts at breast cancer diagnosis and treatment—prompting earlier detection. This has likely reduced the long-term risk of CLL in breast cancer survivors.     

Thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine: trends with reference to the Chernobyl accident

For the first time, a comparative analysis of thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident was done in a cohort that is almost as large as the general population. On the basis of thyroid doses from radioactive iodine in individuals aged 1-18 years at the time of accident, geographic regions of Ukraine with low and high average accumulated thyroid doses were established and designated "low-exposure" and "high-exposure" territories, respectively. A significant difference of thyroid cancer incidence rates as a function of time between the two territories was found. That is, the increase in the incidence was higher in high-exposure regions than in low-exposure regions. The incidence rates varied substantially among the different attained age-groups, especially in the youngest one (up to 19 years old). The analysis that was adjusted for screening and technological effects also indicated that in the high-exposure regions, thyroid cancer incidence rates at the age of diagnosis of 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years were significantly higher in those born in 1982-1986 compared to those born in 1987-1991, while in the low-exposure regions, no significant difference was observed. The observed probable excess of radiation-induced thyroid cancer cases in adults exposed to radioactive iodine from the Chernobyl accident, especially in females, may be due to the high power of the present study. However, it should be noted that our investigation was not essentially free from ecological biases.     

Rural population mixing and childhood leukaemia: effects of the North Sea oil industry in Scotland,including the area near Dounreay nuclear site.

OBJECTIVE--To determine if any excess of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma was associated with certain striking examples of population mixing in rural Scotland produced by the North Sea oil industry. DESIGN--Details were traced for over 30,000 workers involved in the construction of the large oil terminals in the Shetland and Orkney islands in northern Scotland or employed offshore. Home addresses of the 17,160 Scottish residents were postcoded, integrated with census data, and then classified as urban or rural. Rural postcode sectors, ranked by proportion of oil workers, were grouped into three categories with similar numbers of children but contrasting densities of oil workers. The incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma was examined in these rural (and also in urban) categories in the periods 1974-8, 1979-83 and 1984-8. SETTING--Scotland. SUBJECTS--Young people below age 25. RESULTS--A significant excess of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma was found in 1979-83 in the group of rural home areas with the largest proportion of oil workers, following closely on large increases in the workforce. The area near the Dounreay nuclear installation, where an excess of leukaemia is already well known, was within the rural high oil category. CONCLUSION--The findings support the infection hypothesis that population mixing can increase the incidence of childhood leukaemia in rural areas. They also suggest that the recent excess in the Dounreay-Thurso area is due to population mixing linked to the oil industry, promoted by certain unusual local demographic factors.     

Incidence of AIDS and excess of mortality associated with HIV in haemophiliacs in the United Kingdom: report on behalf of the directors of haemophilia centres in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVE--To estimate the cumulative incidence of AIDS by time since seroconversion in haemophiliacs positive for HIV and to examine the evidence for excess mortality associated with HIV in those who had not yet been diagnosed as having AIDS. DESIGN--Analysis of data from ongoing national surveys. SETTING--Haemophilia centres in the United Kingdom. PATIENTS--A total of 1201 men with haemophilia who had lived in the United Kingdom during 1980-7 and were positive for HIV. INTERVENTION--None. END POINTS--Diagnosis of AIDS; death in those not diagnosed as having AIDS. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Estimation of cumulative incidence of AIDS and number of excess deaths in seropositive patients not diagnosed with AIDS. Median follow up after seroconversion was 5 years 2 months. Eight five patients developed AIDS. Cumulative incidence of AIDS five years after seroconversion was 4% among patients aged less than 25 at first test positive for HIV, 6% among those aged 25-44, and 19% among those aged greater than or equal to 45. There was little evidence that type or severity of haemophilia or type of factor VIII or IX that had caused HIV infection affected the rate of progression to AIDS. Mortality was increased among those who had not been diagnosed as having AIDS, especially among those with "AIDS related complex." Thirteen deaths were observed among 36 patients diagnosed as having AIDS related complex against 0.65 expected, and 34 deaths in 1080 other patients against 22.77 expected; both calculations were based on mortality rates observed in haemophiliacs in the United Kingdom in the late 1970s. CONCLUSIONS--Rate of progression to AIDS depended strongly on age. There is a substantial burden of fatal disease among patients positive for HIV who have not been formally diagnosed as having AIDS.     

Childhood cancer in relation to distance from high voltage power lines in England and Wales: a case-control study

Objective To determine whether there is an association between distance of home address at birth from high voltage power lines and the incidence of leukaemia and other cancers in children in England and Wales.Design Case-control study.Setting Cancer registry and National Grid records.Subjects Records of 29 081 children with cancer, including 9700 with leukaemia. Children were aged 0-14 years and born in England and Wales, 1962-95. Controls were individually matched for sex, approximate date of birth, and birth registration district. No active participation was required.Main outcome measures Distance from home address at birth to the nearest high voltage overhead power line in existence at the time.Results Compared with those who lived > 600 m from a line at birth, children who lived within 200 m had a relative risk of leukaemia of 1.69 (95% confidence interval 1.13 to 2.53); those born between 200 and 600 m had a relative risk of 1.23 (1.02 to 1.49). There was a significant (P < 0.01) trend in risk in relation to the reciprocal of distance from the line. No excess risk in relation to proximity to lines was found for other childhood cancers.Conclusions There is an association between childhood leukaemia and proximity of home address at birth to high voltage power lines, and the apparent risk extends to a greater distance than would have been expected from previous studies. About 4% of children in England and Wales live within 600 m of high voltage lines at birth. If the association is causal, about 1% of childhood leukaemia in England and Wales would be attributable to these lines, though this estimate has considerable statistical uncertainty. There is no accepted biological mechanism to explain the epidemiological results; indeed, the relation may be due to chance or confounding.