共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Aim To understand how vegetation mediates the interplay between fire and climate. Specifically, we predict that neither the switching of climatic conditions to high flammability nor the sensitivity of fire to such conditions are universal, but rather depend on fuel (vegetation) structure, which in turn changes with productivity. Location An aridity/productivity gradient on the Iberian Peninsula (Mediterranean Basin). Methods We defined 13 regions distributed along an aridity gradient, which thus differ in productivity and fuel structure. We then assessed the changes in the temporal fire–climate relationship across regions. Specifically, for each region we estimated three variables: the aridity level for switching to flammable conditions (i.e. climatic conditions conducive to fire), the frequency of these flammable conditions and the area burnt under such conditions. These variables were then related to regional aridity and fuel structure indicators. Results In mediterranean ecosystems, the aridity level for switching to flammable conditions increased along the aridity gradient. Differences in fire activity between regions were not explained by the frequency of flammable conditions but by the sensitivity of fire to such conditions, which was higher in wetter and more productive regions. Main conclusions Under mediterranean climatic conditions, fuel structure is more relevant in driving fire activity than the frequency of climatic conditions conducive to fire. At a global scale, fuel also drives the fire–climate relationship because it determines the climatic (aridity) threshold for switching to flammable conditions. Our results emphasize the role of landscape structure in shaping current and future fire–climate relationships at a regional scale, and suggest that future changes in the fire regime (i.e. under global warming) might be different from what it is predicted by climate alone. 相似文献
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Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for niche-based models 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
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Potential distribution of semi-deciduous forests in Castile and Leon (Spain) in relation to climatic variations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
About 45% of the total surface area of the Castile and Leon region today can potentially be occupied by semi-deciduous forests, chiefly dominated by Quercus faginea Willd. and Quercus pyrenaica Lam. On the basis of extrapolated trends in annual mean temperature and precipitation in Castile and Leon observed over the 37-year period from 1961 to 1997 [del Río et al. 2005], predicted changes in the areas covered by Q. faginea and Q. pyrenaica forests in 2025, 2050 and 2075 were made. A decrease in Q. faginea forests may occur if observed trends in temperature and precipitation continue. With respect to Q. pyrenaica forests, they may increase in present Mediterranean areas and decreases in Temperate Submediterranean areas. In some cases, both types of forests could be replaced by deciduous forests. The predicted results in the natural distribution of vegetation types by the bioclimatic models can be used to establish policies for improved future nature conservation and land management. 相似文献
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López-García JM Cuenca-Bescós G Blain HA Álvarez-Lao D Uzquiano P Adán G Arbizu M Arsuaga JL 《Journal of human evolution》2011,61(1):108-116
The transition from the Middle Palaeolithic (Mousterian) to the Upper Palaeolithic (Aurignacian) has been one of the prominent themes in the archaeology of the European Palaeolithic for more than 20 years. One of the most controversial questions concerning this period is the extinction of the Neanderthals and their replacement by modern humans. In this context, Cueva del Conde, located in the northern part of the Iberian Peninsula, is an archaeo-palaeontological site that records the Mousterian to Aurignacian transition. It has been excavated since the beginning of the 20th century, first by the Conde de la Vega del Sella and systematically by a team from the University of Oviedo since 2001. Three main zones have been identified: the External Zone, dated to approximately 39 110 ± 520 BP (level N104); the Entrance Platform, dated between 38 250 ± 390 BP and 34 730 ± 500 BP; and Gallery A with a radiocarbon date of approximately 31 540 ± 400 BP (level N2a2). The small-vertebrate assemblages recovered from the water-screening of all sediment from the excavation campaigns represent at least 21 small mammal, amphibian and squamate taxa. The small-vertebrate associations in the three zones suggest a patchy landscape, dominated by humid meadows and woodland areas with the existence of water in the vicinity of the cave. The climate shows a more continental pattern during the Mousterian, though it was milder during the Aurignacian. The small vertebrates of the Cueva del Conde Mousterian and Aurignacian levels suggest a climate that differed from modern day temperatures, between −1.1 and −4.4 °C (mean annual temperature), placing these assemblages during Interstadials 9 to 7 (Is9 to 7). 相似文献
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Remote sensing data have been used in previous studies to assess the effects of winter ecological conditions in Africa on biological parameters recorded in bird populations during the following breeding season in Europe. Based on the results of these studies, we hypothesized that a high productivity of vegetation during the winter and, thus, high resource availability, should advance the arrival of long-distance migrants to the European breeding areas due to enhanced ecological conditions. To test this hypothesis, between 1982 and 2000 we examined the first arrival date to the Iberian Peninsula of five species (White Stork, Cuckoo, Common Swift, Barn Swallow and Nightingale) in relation to several explanatory variables: ecological conditions in their African wintering grounds and passage areas, as reflected by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), temperature and precipitation in their passage areas and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Ecological conditions in the wintering areas were important for White Stork, Cuckoo and Barn Swallow phenology, while both NDVI in passage areas and NAO did not have an effect on any species. Migratory birds arrived earlier after winters with high vegetation productivity in Africa. Temperature in passage areas was important for the later species (i.e. Cuckoo, Common Swift and Nightingale), although in all cases the true relevance of this factor was scarce due to the poor explanatory capacity of the models. These species were recorded in the Iberian Peninsula earlier in the spring of those years with warmer temperatures in passage areas. The nexus between African NDVI and arrival phenology is hypothesized through increases in wintering survival rates and/or the faster acquisition of pre-migratory body condition and progression through sub-Saharan areas. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
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《Fungal Ecology》2015
Mushrooms are amongst the most important of non-timber forest products, with growing economic value in many rural areas of the Mediterranean region. At the same time, the effects of climate variability on fungal ecology and productivity are insufficiently understood, because the belowground life cycle of fungi is mediated in many different ways and observational field surveys at the community level are generally too short. Here, we assess records of 48, 348 mycorrhizal and saprotrophic fungal fruit bodies that were recorded at weekly intervals between 1995 and 2013 in Pinar Grande, the largest Spanish Scots pine forest. Autumnal fruiting was delayed by one week after 2004 compared with the period before, the mean annual number of sporocarps dropped from 2 880 to 2 045, and mean species richness declined from 55 to 51. Trends in the phenology and productivity of Boletus edulis and Lactarius spp., the most profitable edible species, were associated with decreasing Jul.–Sep. precipitation totals, whereas the mean fruit body weight of B. edulis significantly increased from 71 to 123 g (pre and post 2004). In tandem with declining Spanish tree growth and truffle harvest since the 1970s, this study reveals a strong dependency of drought-prone Iberian forest ecosystem productivity on hydroclimatic variability. In light of a predicted drier Mediterranean climate, our results further emphasize the importance of long and well-replicated field inventories at high spatiotemporal resolution for informing forest service and management strategies, as well as gastronomy and tourist industries. 相似文献
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Brezo Martínez Rosa M. Viejo Francisco Carreño Silvia C. Aranda 《Journal of Biogeography》2012,39(10):1877-1890
Aim Because intertidal organisms often live close to their physiological tolerance limits, they are potentially sensitive indicators of climate‐driven changes in the environment. The goals of this study were to assess the effect of climatic and non‐climatic factors on the geographical distribution of intertidal macroalgae, and to predict future distributions under different climate‐warming scenarios. Location North‐western Iberian Peninsula, southern Europe. Methods We developed distribution models for six ecologically important intertidal seaweed species. Occurrence and microhabitat data were sampled at 1‐km2 resolution and analysed with climate variables measured at larger spatial scales. We used generalized linear models and applied the deviance and Bayesian information criterion to model the relationship between environmental variables and the distribution of each target species. We also used hierarchical partitioning (HP) to identify predictor variables with higher independent explanatory power. Results The distributions of Himanthalia elongata and Bifurcaria bifurcata were correlated with measures of terrestrial and marine climate, although in opposite directions. Model projections under two warming scenarios indicated the extinction of the former at a faster rate in the Cantabrian Sea (northern Spain) than in the Atlantic (west). In contrast, these models predicted an increase in the occurrence of B. bifurcata in both areas. The occurrences of Ascophyllum nodosum and Pelvetia canaliculata, species showing rather static historical distributions, were related to specific non‐climatic environmental conditions and locations, such as the location of sheltered sites. At the southernmost distributional limit, these habitats may present favourable microclimatic conditions or provide refuges from competitors or natural enemies. Model performances for Fucus vesiculosus and F. serratus were similar and poor, but several climatic variables influenced the occurrence of the latter in the HP analyses. Main conclusions The correlation between species distributions and climate was evident for two species, whereas the distributions of the others were associated with non‐climatic predictors. We hypothesize that the distribution of F. serratus responds to diverse combinations of factors in different sections of the north‐west Iberian Peninsula. Our study shows how the response of species distributions to climatic and non‐climatic variables may be complex and vary geographically. Our analyses also highlight the difficulty of making predictions based solely on variation in climatic factors measured at coarse spatial scales. 相似文献
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H. Romo E. García-Barros R. J. Wilson R. G. Mateo M. L. Munguira 《Insect Conservation and Diversity》2023,16(4):451-467
- Taxa restricted to mountains may be vulnerable to global warming, unless local-scale topographic variation and conservation actions can protect them against expected changes to the climate.
- We tested how climate change will affect the 19 mountain-restricted Erebia species of the Iberian Peninsula, of which 7 are endemic.
- To examine the scope for local topographic variation to protect against warming, we applied species distribution models (HadGEM2 and MPI) at two spatial scales (10 × 10 and 1 × 1 km) for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in 2050 and 2070. We also superimposed current and future ranges on the protected area (PA) network to identify priority areas for adapting Erebia conservation to climate change.
- In 10 × 10 km HadGEM2 models, climatically suitable areas for all species decreased in 2050 and 2070 (average −95.7%). Modelled decreases at 1 × 1 km were marginally less drastic (−95.3%), and 14 out of 19 species were still expected to lose their entire climatically favourable range by 2070.
- The PA network is well located to conserve the species that are expected to retain some climatically suitable areas in 2070. However, we identify 25 separate 10 × 10 km squares where new PAs would help to adapt the network to expected range shifts or contractions by Erebia.
- Based on our results, adapting the conservation of range-restricted mountain taxa to projected climate change will require the implementation of complementary in situ and ex situ measures alongside urgent climate change mitigation.
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DAVID SÁNCHEZ‐FERNÁNDEZ JORGE M. LOBO PEDRO ABELLÁN ANDRÉS MILLÁN 《Biological journal of the Linnean Society. Linnean Society of London》2011,103(4):891-903
Historically, there has been considerable disagreement between researchers about the criteria used to discriminate among species. Decisions based on traditional morphological and genetic data alone can be potentially problematic, especially if the hypotheses are contradictory. Today, taxonomy is integrating new methods from different disciplines that study species' limits and evolution; this diverse range of evidence aids researchers in the recognition of species. Differences in niche characteristics could become a new and useful criterion in helping to decide the status of conflicting taxonomical entities. Ochthebius glaber (family Hydraenidae) is an endangered water beetle typical from southeast Iberian hypersaline streams that shows three clear discrete genetic units within its distribution range. However, there is no evidence to date that these lineages of O. glaber exhibit any adaptive morphological or ecological divergence. Using a modelling approach directed to generate niche representation from distributional data, we found a significant environmental niche divergence for allopatric lineages of O. glaber that followed an aridity gradient. Although we can not conclude firmly at present that the separate populations of O. glaber studied represent separate, reproductively isolated species, the present study complements and supports previous phylogeographic analyses through the inclusion of measures of another form of evolutionary change; in this case, ecological diversification. Despite the existence of some methodological limitations, also discussed in the present study, we emphasize the importance of recent conceptual advances that allow taxonomy to improve species delimitation practices through the integration of theory and methods from disciplines that study the origin and evolution of species. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 103 , 891–903. 相似文献
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Alberto JIMENEZ-VALVERDE Jorge M. LOBO 《动物学报》2007,53(5):865-876
本研究的目的是i)确定伊比利亚半岛一种大疣蛛(Macrothele calpeiana)分布的气候相关性以预测其潜在分布,ii)详细阐述该物种在伊比利亚半岛的分布假说,iii)通过推断模型预测确认该物种在北非和整个地中海地区的适合区域,iv)预测气候变暖对蜘蛛潜在分布区的影响。基于物种的存在、远离目前环境条件下的可能缺失以及其它的气候参数,使用广义线性模型发展了潜在分布的可预测模型。蜘蛛在伊比利亚半岛上的潜在分布远大于目前已知的分布区,延伸到尚未发现蜘蛛分布的葡萄牙广大地区。本文提出了该种大疣蛛在适合分布区域内没有分布的历史因素。北非具有适合该物种的条件但却没有该属物种的分布支持了大疣蛛(Macrothele)祖先的东方起源假说。对地中海地区蜘蛛分布的推断突出显示了阿根廷地区有合适的分布区,该地区也发现有另一种欧洲大疣蛛。气候变暖将对现存于伊比利亚的M.calpeiana种群产生负面影响,因为气候变暖将减少并破碎化蜘蛛在北非的潜在栖息地。目前,急需确认在葡萄牙广大地区是否存在蜘蛛物种,发展对该属的系统发育研究以确定大疣蛛属起源和扩散史的理论。 相似文献
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比较3个应用较广的模拟物种地理分布模型:广义线性模型(GLM)、广义加法模型(GAM)与分类回归树(CART)对中国树种地理分布模拟的优劣,以提出更为合适的模拟物种地理分布模型,并用于预测气候变化对物种地理分布的影响。3个模型对中国15种树种地理分布的模拟研究表明:除对油松、辽东栎分布的模拟精度稍差外,对其余树种分布的模拟精度均较高,其中以GAM模型最好。结合地理信息系统(GIS),比较分析了这3个模型对青冈、木荷、红松和油松4种树种的地理分布模拟效果,结果亦表明:这3个模型均能很好模拟青冈和木荷的地理分布,而GLM模型对红松分布的模拟结果不太理想,3个模型对油松分布的模拟结果均不甚理想,其中以GLM模型最差。基于3个模型对未来气候变化下青冈与蒙古栎地理分布的预测表明:GLM模型与GAM模型对青冈分布的预测结果较为接近,青冈在未来气候变化情景下向西和向北扩展,而CART模型预测青冈在未来气候变化情景下除有向西、向北扩展趋势外,广东和广西南部的青冈分布区将消失;3个模型均预测蒙古栎在未来气候变化情景下向西扩展,扩展面积的大小为:模型的模拟面积>模型>模型。 相似文献
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Christoph Oberprieler Kamil Konowalik Sabrina Altpeter Elisabeth Siegert Rosa Maria Lo Presti Roland Greiner Robert Vogt 《Flora》2012
In order to assess the effects of polyploidisation on distribution patterns of species in a polyploid complex, we compared potential and actual distribution ranges of representatives from the genus Leucanthemum Mill. (Compositae, Anthemideae), which occur on the Iberian Peninsula with 20 taxa spanning ploidy levels between 2n = 2x = 18 and 2n = 22x = 198. Actual distribution ranges of taxa were derived from geo-referenced herbarium specimens by defining buffer circles around the collection localities to account for geographical uncertainties and haphazardness of specimen collecting. Eco-climatologically potential ranges were modelled with the maximum entropy method (Maxent) based on the actual distributions. By comparison of sizes of realised and eco-climatologically potential areas for each taxon we computed taxon-specific overlap indices that express the filling of eco-climatological niches. The correlation between overlap indices and ploidy levels was tested by Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. We observed a significant negative correlation between ploidy level and sizes of realised distribution ranges and no significant correlation of ploidy level and sizes of potential ranges. Finally, we found that diploid and low-ploidy taxa are filling their potential eco-climatological distribution ranges more exhaustively than highly polyploid taxa. Assuming that ascending polyploidisation is the prevailing mode compared to descending polyploidisation, our results demonstrate that the distribution patterns of members of the Leucanthemum polyploid complex on the Iberian Peninsula are mainly influenced by the age of taxa and not by ecological advantages or disadvantages connected with polyploidy. 相似文献
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JAVIER GUTIÉRREZ ILLÁN DAVID GUTIÉRREZ SONIA B. DÍEZ ROBERT J. WILSON 《Ecological Entomology》2012,37(2):134-144
1. Impacts of global change on the distribution, abundance, and phenology of species have been widely documented. In particular, recent climate change has led to widespread changes in animal and plant seasonality, leading to debate about its potential to cause phenological mismatches among interacting taxa. 2. In mountainous regions, populations of many species show pronounced phenological gradients over short geographic distances, presenting the opportunity to test for effects of climate on phenology, independent of variation in confounding factors such as photoperiod. 3. Here we show for 32 butterfly species sampled for five years over a 1700 m gradient (560–2260 m) in a Mediterranean mountain range that, on average, annual flight period is delayed with elevation by 15–22 days per kilometre. Species mainly occurring at low elevations in the region, and to some extent those flying earlier in the year, showed phenological delays of 23–36 days per kilometre, whereas the flight periods of species that occupy high elevations, or fly in late summer, were consistently more synchronised over the elevation gradient. 4. Elevational patterns in phenology appear to reflect a narrowing phenological window of opportunity for larval and adult butterfly activity of high elevation and late‐flying species. 5. Here, we speculate as to the causes of these patterns, and the consequences for our ability to predict species responses to climate change. Our results raise questions about the use of space–time substitutions in predicting phenological responses to climate change, since traits relating to flight period and environmental associations may influence the capacity of species to adapt to changing climates. 相似文献
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David R. Heit;Waldemar Ortiz-Calo;Mairi K. P. Poisson;Andrew R. Butler;Remington J. Moll; 《Ecology and evolution》2024,14(7):e11387
Generalized linear models (GLMs) are an integral tool in ecology. Like general linear models, GLMs assume linearity, which entails a linear relationship between independent and dependent variables. However, because this assumption acts on the link rather than the natural scale in GLMs, it is more easily overlooked. We reviewed recent ecological literature to quantify the use of linearity. We then used two case studies to confront the linearity assumption via two GLMs fit to empirical data. In the first case study we compared GLMs to generalized additive models (GAMs) fit to mammal relative abundance data. In the second case study we tested for linearity in occupancy models using passerine point-count data. We reviewed 162 studies published in the last 5 years in five leading ecology journals and found less than 15% reported testing for linearity. These studies used transformations and GAMs more often than they reported a linearity test. In the first case study, GAMs strongly out-performed GLMs as measured by AIC in modeling relative abundance, and GAMs helped uncover nonlinear responses of carnivore species to landscape development. In the second case study, 14% of species-specific models failed a formal statistical test for linearity. We also found that differences between linear and nonlinear (i.e., those with a transformed independent variable) model predictions were similar for some species but not for others, with implications for inference and conservation decision-making. Our review suggests that reporting tests for linearity are rare in recent studies employing GLMs. Our case studies show how formally comparing models that allow for nonlinear relationships between the dependent and independent variables has the potential to impact inference, generate new hypotheses, and alter conservation implications. We conclude by suggesting that ecological studies report tests for linearity and use formal methods to address linearity assumption violations in GLMs. 相似文献
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Ellen J. Coombs Rob Deaville Richard C. Sabin Louise Allan Mick O'Connell Simon Berrow Brian Smith Andrew Brownlow Mariel Ten Doeschate Rod Penrose Ruth Williams Matthew W. Perkins Paul D. Jepson Natalie Cooper 《Marine Mammal Science》2019,35(4):1527-1555
There are many factors that may explain why cetaceans (whales, dolphins, and porpoises) strand. Around the UK and Ireland, over 20,000 stranding records have been collected since 1913, resulting in one of the longest, continuous, systematic stranding data sets in the world. We use this data set to investigate temporal and spatial trends in cetacean strandings and use generalized additive models (GAMs) to investigate correlates of strandings. We find a dramatic increase in strandings since the 1980s, most likely due to increases in recording effort, and the formation of formal strandings networks. We found no correlation between the numbers of cetaceans stranding each year and several potential environmental and anthropogenic predictors: storms, geomagnetic activity, North Atlantic Oscillations, sea‐surface temperature, and fishing catch. We suggest that this is because the scale of change in the variables is too coarse to detect any potential correlations. It may also highlight the idiosyncratic nature of species’ responses to external pressures, and further the need to investigate other potential correlates of strandings, such as bycatch and military sonar. Long‐term cetacean stranding data provide vital information on past and present diversity for common, rare, and inconspicuous species. This study underlines the importance of continued support for stranding networks. 相似文献
18.
探究城市化对绿地空间碳源/汇的空间分布格局的影响,对评估城市生态系统的碳足迹和制定相应的碳收支管理措施具有重要意义。以净生态系统生产力(NEP)做为碳源/汇的反映指标,基于净初级生产力和土壤呼吸估算杭州市主城区绿地碳源/汇的空间分布格局,关注城乡梯度对不同绿地类型碳源/汇水平的作用。基于净初级生产力和土壤呼吸数据综合获得绿地空间NEP,通过土地利用数据和Fragstats软件进行景观格局分析,采用多元线性回归模型和逐步回归模型筛选影响NEP的景观、植被和气象因子,最后利用广义加性模型探讨NEP与各因子之间的关系。此外,分别比较了相同统计过程在不同城乡梯度和不同绿地类型之间的模型差异。结果表明:杭州市绿地空间NEP分布及其影响因子存在显著的城乡梯度与绿地类型差异。2019-2022年杭州市主城区绿地空间,整体表现为碳源,年均NEP为-0.277 kg C m-2 a-1;其中表现为碳汇的绿地主要分布在杭州市主城区的西部,而碳源绿地主要分布在中部和东部。整体绿地空间的NEP大小与绿地斑块面积、乔木盖度和灌木盖度呈正相关,与灌木物种丰富度和气温呈负相关。NEP随城区、城郊结合部、郊区的城乡梯度逐步增强;城区NEP与乔木盖度呈正相关,与景观多样性和气温呈负相关;城郊结合部NEP与乔木物种丰富度和灌木盖度呈正相关,与绿地斑块密度和气温呈负相关;郊区NEP则与聚集度指数、乔木盖度和灌木盖度呈正相关。公园、农田、自然植被的NEP依次增大并受到不同因素的调控。公园NEP与聚集度指数、乔木盖度和灌木盖度呈正相关,与景观分割指数、灌木物种丰富度和气温呈负相关;农田NEP与聚集度指数和灌木盖度呈正相关,与气温呈负相关;而自然植被NEP则与乔木盖度呈正相关,与景观多样性指数和气温呈负相关。研究进一步揭示了城市化对绿地空间碳源/汇的影响,为城乡碳收支的差异化管理提供了一定的理论和数据支持。 相似文献
19.
基于广义可加模型的昆虫种群动态非线性分析及R语言实现 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
昆虫种群受到气候、天敌和土壤等多种生态因子的综合作用,其动态具有复杂性、不确定性和非线性等特征。广义加性模型(generalized additive models,GAM)就是适用于响应变量与解释变量之间的关系是非线性或非单调的数据分析。本文以1973—1990年稻纵卷叶螟种群数量与降雨持续天数和降雨量的相关性分析为例,介绍了广义可加模型的应用及其R语言实现步骤,为研究昆虫种群动态及其驱动因子提供了有效的分析工具。 相似文献
20.
Geiziane Tessarolo Thiago F. Rangel Miguel B. Araújo Joaquín Hortal 《Diversity & distributions》2014,20(11):1258-1269