Population cycles in microtines: The senescence hypothesis

Summary The cause of population cycles in microtines (voles and lemmings) remains an enigma. I propose a new solution to this problem based on a crucial feature of microtine biology, shifts in age structure, that has been ignored until now. Empirical evidence indicates that age structure must shift markedly towards older animals during declines because of three characteristics of the previous peak year: a shortened breeding season, total replacement of the breeding population from peak to decline and density-dependent social inhibition of maturation of young. Declines become inevitable as populations composed of older animals survive and reproduce poorly because of the effects of senescence, possibly interacting with the experiences of peak density and I present both theoretical and empirical evidence for this hypothesis. Although a variety of physiological systems deteriorate with aging, I focus on a crucial one — the inability of older animals to effectively maintain homeostasis in the face of environmental challenges because of a progressive deterioration in the endocrine feedback mechanisms involved in the hippocampal—hypothalamic—pituitary—adrenal axis. Microtine populations will not exhibit cycles where age structure shifts are prevented owing to extrinsic factors such as intense predation. Six testable predictions are made that can falsify this hypothesis.     

The impact of reproductive investment and early‐life environmental conditions on senescence: support for the disposable soma hypothesis

Several hypotheses have been put forward to explain the evolution of senescence. One of the leading hypotheses, the disposable soma hypothesis, predicts a trade‐off, whereby early‐life investment in reproduction leads to late‐life declines in survival (survival senescence). Testing this hypothesis in natural populations is challenging, but important for understanding the evolution of senescence. We used the long‐term data set from a contained, predator‐free population of individually marked Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis) to investigate how age‐related declines in survival are affected by early‐life investment in reproduction and early‐life environmental conditions. The disposable soma hypothesis predicts that higher investment in reproduction, or experiencing harsh conditions during early life, will lead to an earlier onset, and an increased rate, of senescence. We found that both sexes showed similar age‐related declines in late‐life survival consistent with senescence. Individuals that started breeding at a later age showed a delay in survival senescence, but this later onset of breeding did not result in a less rapid decline in late‐life survival. Although survival senescence was not directly related to early‐life environmental conditions, age of first breeding increased with natal food availability. Therefore, early‐life food availability may affect senescence by influencing age of first breeding. The disposable soma hypothesis of senescence is supported by delayed senescence in individuals that started breeding at a later age and therefore invested less in reproduction.     

Predator–vole interactions in northern Europe: the role of small mustelids revised

The cyclic population dynamics of vole and predator communities is a key phenomenon in northern ecosystems, and it appears to be influenced by climate change. Reports of collapsing rodent cycles have attributed the changes to warmer winters, which weaken the interaction between voles and their specialist subnivean predators. Using population data collected throughout Finland during 1986–2011, we analyse the spatio-temporal variation in the interactions between populations of voles and specialist, generalist and avian predators, and investigate by simulations the roles of the different predators in the vole cycle. We test the hypothesis that vole population cyclicity is dependent on predator–prey interactions during winter. Our results support the importance of the small mustelids for the vole cycle. However, weakening specialist predation during winters, or an increase in generalist predation, was not associated with the loss of cyclicity. Strengthening of delayed density dependence coincided with strengthening small mustelid influence on the summer population growth rates of voles. In conclusion, a strong impact of small mustelids during summers appears highly influential to vole population dynamics, and deteriorating winter conditions are not a viable explanation for collapsing small mammal population cycles.     

Age variation in a fluctuating population of the common vole

We analysed variation in age in a fluctuating population of the common vole (Microtus arvalis) in southern Moravia, Czech Republic, to test the assumption of the senescence hypothesis that the age of voles increases with increasing population density. Between 1996 and 1998, we monitored the demographic changes by snap-trapping and live-trapping in a field population passing through the increase, peak and decline phase of the population cycle. We used the eye lens mass method to determine the age of snap-trapped animals and those that died in live-traps. The average age of winter males was clearly higher after the peak phase breeding season than before it. No such phase-dependent shift in age, however, was observed in the female component. Male age continued to increase from autumn to spring over the pre-peak winter, and the highest age was in spring of the peak phase year. However, after the peak phase breeding season the highest age was achieved in winter, with the decline phase males during the next spring tending to be younger. The average age of females in spring populations was always lower than in winter populations. The average age of voles from live-traps was always higher than voles from snap-traps, particularly in winter and spring populations, suggesting the presence of senescent animals. Although the density-dependent changes in age are consistent with those observed for other voles, they provide only weak evidence that population cycles in the common vole are accompanied by pronounced shifts in individual age, particularly in female voles.Due to an error in the citation line, this revised PDF (published in December 2003) deviates from the printed version, and is the correct and authoritative version of the paper.     

Age‐dependent changes in infidelity in Seychelles warblers

Extra‐pair paternity (EPP) is often linked to male age in socially monogamous vertebrates; that is, older males are more likely to gain EPP and less likely to be cuckolded. However, whether this occurs because males improve at gaining paternity as they grow older, or because “higher quality” males that live longer are preferred by females, has rarely been tested, despite being central to our understanding of the evolutionary drivers of female infidelity. Moreover, how extra‐pair reproduction changes with age within females has received even less attention. Using 18 years of longitudinal data from an individually marked population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis), we found considerable within‐individual changes in extra‐pair reproduction in both sexes: an early‐life increase and a late‐life decline. Furthermore, males were cuckolded less as they aged. Our results indicate that in this species age‐related patterns of extra‐pair reproduction are determined by within‐individual changes with age, rather than differences among individuals in longevity. These results challenge the hypothesis—based on longevity reflecting intrinsic quality—that the association between male age and EPP is due to females seeking high‐quality paternal genes for offspring. Importantly, EPP accounted for up to half of male reproductive success, emphasizing the male fitness benefits of this reproductive strategy. Finally, the occurrence of post‐peak declines in extra‐pair reproduction provides explicit evidence of senescence in infidelity in both males and females.     

Vole population cycles in northern and southern Europe: is there a need for different explanations for single pattern?

1. Students of population cycles in small rodents in Fennoscandia have accumulated support for the predation hypothesis, which states that the gradient in cycle length and amplitude running from southern to northern Fennoscandia reflects the relative influence of specialist and generalist predators on vole dynamics, itself modulated by the presence of snow cover. The hypothesized role of snow cover is to isolate linked specialist predators, primarily the least weasel, Mustela n. nivalis L. and their prey, primarily field voles Microtus agrestis L., from the stabilizing influence of generalist predators. 2. The predation hypothesis does not readily account for the high amplitude and regular 3-year cycles of common voles documented in agricultural areas of western, central and eastern Europe. Such cycles are rarely mentioned in the literature pertaining to Fennoscandian cycles. 3. We consider new data on population cycles and demographic patterns of common voles Microtus arvalis Pallas in south-west France. We show that the patterns are wholly consistent with five of six patterns that characterize rodent cycles in Fennoscandia and that are satisfactorily explained by the predation hypothesis. They include the: (a) existence of cycle; (b) the occurrence of long-term changes in relative abundance and type of dynamics; (c) geographical synchrony over large areas; (d) interspecific synchrony; and (e) voles are large in the increase and peak phase and small in decline and low phase, namely. There is a striking similarity between the patterns shown by common vole populations in south-west France and those from Fennoscandian cyclic rodent populations, although the former are not consistent with a geographical extension of the latitudinal gradient south of Fennoscandia. 4. It is possible that the dominant interaction leading to multiannual rodent oscillations is different in different regions. We argue, however, that advocates of the predation hypothesis should embrace the challenge of developing a widely applicable explanation to population cycles, including justifying any limits to its applicability on ecological and not geographical grounds.     

Terminal investment and senescence in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) on Cayo Santiago

Long-lived iteroparous species often show aging-related changes in reproduction that may be explained by 2 non-mutually exclusive hypotheses. The terminal investment hypothesis predicts increased female reproductive effort toward the end of the life span, as individuals have little to gain by reserving effort for the future. The senescence hypothesis predicts decreased female reproductive output toward the end of the life span due to an age-related decline in body condition. Nonhuman primates are ideal organisms for testing these hypotheses, as they are long lived and produce altricial offspring heavily dependent on maternal investment. In this study, we integrated 50 years of continuous demographic records for the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) population with new morphometric and behavioral data to test the senescence and terminal investment hypotheses. We examined relationships between maternal age and activity, mother and infant body condition, interbirth intervals, measures of behavioral investment in offspring, and offspring survival and fitness to test for age-associated declines in reproduction that would indicate senescence, and for age-associated increases in maternal effort that would indicate terminal investment. Compared with younger mothers, older mothers had lower body mass indices and were less active, had longer interbirth intervals, and spent more time in contact with infants, but had infants of lower masses and survival rates. Taken together, our results provide strong evidence for the occurrence of reproductive senescence in free-ranging female rhesus macaques but are also consistent with some of the predictions of the terminal investment hypothesis.     

Age-dependent terminal declines in reproductive output in a wild bird

In many iteroparous species individual fitness components, such as reproductive output, first increase with age and then decline during late-life. However, individuals differ greatly in reproductive lifespan, but reproductive declines may only occur in the period just before their death as a result of an age-independent decline in physiological condition. To fully understand reproductive senescence it is important to investigate to what extent declines in late-life reproduction can be explained by age, time until death, or both. However, the study of late-life fitness performance in natural populations is challenging as the exact birth and death dates of individuals are often not known, and most individuals succumb to extrinsic mortality before reaching old age. Here, we used an exceptional long-term longitudinal dataset of individuals from a natural, closed, and predator-free population of the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis) to investigate reproductive output, both in relation to age and to the time until the death of an individual (reverse-age approach). We observed an initial age-dependent increase in reproductive output that was followed by a decline in old age. However, we found no significant decline in reproductive output in the years directly preceding death. Although post-peak reproductive output declined with age, this pattern differed between terminal and non-terminal reproductive attempts, and the age-dependence of the terminal breeding attempt explained much of the variation in age-specific reproductive output. In fact, terminal declines in reproductive output were steeper in very old individuals. These results indicate that not only age-dependent, but also age-independent factors, such as physiological condition, need to be considered to understand reproductive senescence in wild-living animals.     

Evaluating the contributions of change in investment and change in efficiency to age‐related declines in male and female reproduction

It is commonly observed that reproduction decreases with age, often at a different rate in males and females. This phenomenon is generally interpreted as senescence. Such reproductive declines may stem from at least two sources: a change in resource allocation and a decline in the ability to convert resources into offspring. This distinction is important because a shift in resource allocation may be favoured by selection, while reduced efficiency is purely deleterious. We propose a way to distinguish whether a decline in reproduction is purely deleterious based on estimating reproductive investment, output, and their ratio, efficiency. We apply this approach to the hermaphroditic snail Physa acuta and demonstrate that both male and female functions decline with age. The male decline largely stems from reduced investment into male activity while female decline is due to increased reproductive inefficiency. This shows that age‐related declines in reproduction can occur for a number of different reasons, a distinction that is usually masked by the general term ‘senescence’. This approach could be applied to any species to evaluate age‐related reproductive decline. We advocate that future studies measure age trajectories of reproductive investment and output to explore the potential processes hidden behind the observation that reproduction declines with age.     

The Chitty effect: a consequence of dynamic energy allocation in a fluctuating environment

An important biological feature of cyclic populations of voles and lemmings is phase-related changes in average body mass, with adults in high-density phases being 20-30% heavier than those in low-density phases of a cycle. This observation, called the "Chitty effect," is considered to be a ubiquitous feature of cyclic populations. It has been argued that understanding the Chitty effect is fundamental to unraveling the enigma of population cycles. However, there exists no agreement among biologists regarding the causes of the Chitty effect. Here, I propose a simple hypothesis to explain the Chitty effect, based on phase-related, dynamic allocation of energy between reproductive and somatic effort. The essence of the hypothesis is that: (1) reproduction is suppressed in animals born or raised in the later part of the increase phase by environmental factors, including social influences; (2) suppression of reproduction limits the amount of energy that is diverted for reproductive effort, and forces a disproportionately greater amount of surplus power (the energy left after the energetic costs of standard and active metabolism are met) to be allocated for somatic effort; (3) the surplus energy, above and beyond what is required for routine biological activities, will allow continuous growth and deposition of additional body mass, which causes an increase in body mass; and (4) animals grow to a larger size as a population enters the peak density phase, causing an increase in the average body mass. The Chitty effect is predicted to be most pronounced at the late increase or peak phase of a population cycle. Possible causes of reproductive suppression include direct or indirect influences of the environmental factors. The Chitty effect may be a consequence, not a cause, of population cycles in small mammals.     

Evolutionary senescence in plants

Senescence is a decline in age-specific survival and reproduction with advancing age. Studies of evolutionary plant senescence are designed to explain this decline in life history components within the context of natural selection. A review of studies of plant demography reveals senescent declines in both annual and perennial plants, but also suggests that there are some plant species which may not be expected to show senescence. Thus, future comparative studies of closely related species, with and without senescence, should be possible. The assumptions of the major evolutionary theories of senescence are evaluated for their validity with respect to plants. Different plant species violate one or more of the assumptions of the theories, yet the consequences of violating these assumptions have never been investigated. Whereas, to date, evolutionary senescence has been studied only indirectly in plants, it is concluded that plants provide good experimental systems for clarifying our understanding of senescence in natural populations.     

Changes in population structure and reproduction during a 3-yr population cycle of voles

Cyclic changes in population growth rate are caused by changes in survival and/or reproductive rate. To find out whether cyclic changes in reproduction are an important part of the mechanism causing cyclic fluctuations in small mammal populations, we studied changes in the population structure and reproduction of field voles ( Microtus agrestis ), sibling voles ( M. rossiaemeridionalis ), bank voles ( Clethrionomys glareolus ), and common shrews ( Sorex araneus ) in western Finland during 1984–1992, in an area with 3-yr vole cycles. We also modelled the population growth of voles using parameter values from this study. The animals studied were collected by snap trapping in April, May, June, August, September, and, during 1986–1990, also in October. We found several phase-related differences in the population structure (age structure, sex ratio, proportion of mature individuals) and reproduction (litter size, length of the breeding season) of voles. In non-cyclic common shrews, the only significant phase-related difference was a lower proportion of overwintered individuals in the increase phase. According to the analyses and the vole model, phase-related changes in litter size had only a minor impact on population growth rate. The same was true for winter breeding in the increase phase. The length and intensity of the summer breeding season had an effect on yearly population growth but this impact was relatively weak compared to the effect of cyclic changes in survival. The population increase rates of Microtus were delayed dependent on density (8–12-month time lag). Our results indicate that cyclic changes in reproduction are not an important part of the mechanism driving cyclic fluctuations in vole populations. Low survival of young individuals appeared to play an important role in the shift from the peak to the decline phase in late summer and early autumn.     

DECLINE IN OFFSPRING VIABILITY AS A MANIFESTATION OF AGING IN DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER

Abstract The evolutionary explanation of senescence proposes that selection against alleles with deleterious effects manifested only late in life is weak because most individuals die earlier for extrinsic reasons. This argument also applies to alleles whose deleterious effects are nongenetically transmitted from mother to progeny, that is, that affect the performance of progeny produced at late ages rather than of the aging individuals themselves. We studied the effect of maternal age on offspring viability (egg hatching success and larva-to-adult survival) in two sets of Drosophila melanogaster lines (HAM/LAM and YOUNG/OLD), originating from two long-term selection experiments. In each set, some lines (HAM and YOUNG, respectively) have been selected for early reproduction, whereas later reproduction was favored in their counterparts (LAM and OLD). In the HAM and LAM lines, both egg hatching success and larval viability declined with mother's age and did so with accelerating rates. The hatching success declined significantly faster with maternal age in HAM than in LAM lines, according to one of two statistical approaches used. Egg hatching success also declined with maternal age in YOUNG and OLD lines, with no difference between the selection regimes. However, the relationship between mother's age and offspring larva-to-adult viability differed significantly between these two selection regimes: a decline of larval viability with maternal age occurred in YOUNG lines but not in OLD lines. This suggests that the rate with which offspring viability declines with mother's age responded to selection for early versus late reproduction. We suggest broadening the evolutionary concept of senescence to include intrinsically caused declines in offspring quality with maternal age.     

Density-dependent reproduction causes winter crashes in a common vole population

Common voles in western France exhibit three-year population cycles with winter crashes after large outbreaks. During the winter of 2011–2012, we monitored survival, reproduction, recruitment and population growth rate of common voles at different densities (from low to outbreak densities) in natura to better understand density dependence of demographic parameters. Between October and April, the number of animals decreased irrespective of initial density. However, the decline was more pronounced when October density was higher (loss of ≈54 % of individuals at low density and 95 % at high density). Using capture-mark-recapture models with Pradel's temporal symmetry approach, we found a negative effect of density on recruitment and reproduction. In contrast, density had a slightly positive effect on survival indicating that mortality did not drive the steeper declines in animal numbers at high density. We discuss these results in a population cycle framework, and suggest that crashes after outbreaks could reflect negative effects of density dependence on reproduction rather than changes in mortality rates.     

High variability in patterns of population decline: the importance of local processes in species extinctions

A fundamental goal of conservation science is to improve conservation practice. Understanding species extinction patterns has been a central approach towards this objective. However, uncertainty remains about the extent to which species-level patterns reliably indicate population phenomena at the scale of local sites, where conservation ultimately takes place. Here, we explore the importance of both species- and site-specific components of variation in local population declines following habitat disturbance, and test a suite of hypotheses about their intrinsic and extrinsic drivers. To achieve these goals, we analyse an unusually detailed global dataset for species responses to habitat disturbance, namely primates in timber extraction systems, using cross-classified generalized linear mixed models. We show that while there are consistent differences in the severity of local population decline between species, an equal amount of variation also occurs between sites. The tests of our hypotheses further indicate that a combination of biological traits at the species level, and environmental factors at the site level, can help to explain these patterns. Specifically, primate populations show a more marked decline when the species is characterized by slow reproduction, high ecological requirements, low ecological flexibility and small body size; and when the local environment has had less time for recovery following disturbance. Our results demonstrate that individual species show a highly heterogeneous, yet explicable, pattern of decline. The increased recognition and elucidation of local-scale processes in species declines will improve our ability to conserve biodiversity in the future.     

Early-life reproduction is associated with increased mortality risk but enhanced lifetime fitness in pre-industrial humans

The physiology of reproductive senescence in women is well understood, but the drivers of variation in senescence rates are less so. Evolutionary theory predicts that early-life investment in reproduction should be favoured by selection at the cost of reduced survival and faster reproductive senescence. We tested this hypothesis using data collected from preindustrial Finnish church records. Reproductive success increased up to age 25 and was relatively stable until a decline from age 41. Women with higher early-life fecundity (ELF; producing more children before age 25) subsequently had higher mortality risk, but high ELF was not associated with accelerated senescence in annual breeding success. However, women with higher ELF experienced faster senescence in offspring survival. Despite these apparent costs, ELF was under positive selection: individuals with higher ELF had higher lifetime reproductive success. These results are consistent with previous observations in both humans and wild vertebrates that more births and earlier onset of reproduction are associated with reduced survival, and with evolutionary theory predicting trade-offs between early reproduction and later-life survival. The results are particularly significant given recent increases in maternal ages in many societies and the potential consequences for offspring health and fitness.     

Changes in landscape composition influence the decline of a threatened woodland caribou population

1. Large-scale habitat loss is frequently identified with loss of biodiversity, but examples of the direct effect of habitat alterations on changes in vital rates remain rare. Quantifying and understanding the relationship between habitat composition and changes in vital rates, however, is essential for the development of effective conservation strategies. 2. It has been suggested that the decline of woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou populations in North America is precipitated by timber harvesting that creates landscapes of early seral forests. Such habitat changes have altered the predator-prey system resulting in asymmetric predation, where predators are maintained by alternative prey (i.e. apparent competition). However, a direct link between habitat condition and caribou population declines has not been documented. 3. We estimated survival probabilities for the threatened arboreal lichen-feeding ecotype of woodland caribou in British Columbia, Canada, at two different spatial scales. At the broader scale, observed variation in adult female survival rates among 10 distinct populations (range = 0.67-0.93) was best explained by variation in the amount of early seral stands within population ranges and population density. At the finer scale, home ranges of caribou killed by predators had lower proportions of old forest and more mid-aged forest as compared with multi-annual home ranges where caribou were alive. 4. These results are consistent with predictions from the apparent competition hypothesis and quantify direct fitness consequences for caribou following habitat alterations. We conclude that apparent competition can cause rapid population declines and even extinction where changes in species composition occur following large scale habitat change.     

Age-related declines in immune response in a wild mammal are unrelated to immune cell telomere length

Senescence has been hypothesized to arise in part from age-related declines in immune performance, but the patterns and drivers of within-individual age-related changes in immunity remain virtually unexplored in natural populations. Here, using a long-term epidemiological study of wild European badgers (Meles meles), we (i) present evidence of a within-individual age-related decline in the response of a key immune-signalling cytokine, interferon-gamma (IFNγ), to ex vivo lymphocyte stimulation, and (ii) investigate three putative drivers of individual variation in the rate of this decline (sex, disease and immune cell telomere length; ICTL). That the within-individual rate of age-related decline markedly exceeded that at the population level suggests that individuals with weaker IFNγ responses are selectively lost from this population. IFNγ responses appeared to decrease with the progression of bovine tuberculosis infection (independent of age) and were weaker among males than females. However, neither sex nor disease influenced the rate of age-related decline in IFNγ response. Similarly, while ICTL also declines with age, variation in ICTL predicted neither among- nor within-individual variation in IFNγ response. Our findings provide evidence of within-individual age-related declines in immune performance in a wild mammal and highlight the likely complexity of the mechanisms that generate them.     

Age and terminal reproductive attempt influence laying date in the thorn‐tailed rayadito

Age‐specific variation in reproductive effort can affect population dynamics, and is a key component of the evolution of reproductive tactics. Late‐life declines are a typical feature of variation in reproduction. However, the cause of these declines, and thus their implications for the evolution of life‐history tactics, may differ. Some prior studies have shown late‐life reproductive declines to be tied to chronological age, whereas other studies have found declines associated with terminal reproduction irrespective of chronological age. We investigated the extent to which declines in late life reproduction are related to chronological age, terminal reproductive attempt or a combination of both in the thorn‐tailed rayadito Aphrastura spinicauda, a small passerine bird that inhabits the temperate forest of South America. To this end we used long‐term data (10 years) obtained on reproductive success (laying date, clutch size and nestling weight) of females in a Chilean population. Neither chronological age nor terminal reproductive attempt explained variation in clutch size or nestling weight, however we observed that during the terminal reproductive attempt older females tended to lay later in the breeding season and younger females laid early in the breeding season, but this was not the case when the reproductive attempt was not the last. These results suggests that both age‐dependent and age‐independent effects influence reproductive output and therefore that the combined effects of age and physiological condition may be more relevant than previously thought.     

Mechanisms for delayed density-dependent reproductive traits in field voles, Microtus agrestis: the importance of inherited environmental effects

Reproductive traits of voles vary with the phases of the population density fluctuations. We sought to determine whether the source of this variation resides in the individuals or in their environment. Overwintering field voles ( Microtus agrestis ) from two cyclic out-of-phase populations (increase and peak phases) were sampled in early spring and bred in the laboratory for two generations under standardised conditions with ambient light and temperature. Monitoring of the source populations by capture-mark-recapture showed large differences in reproductive performance. In the increase area, reproduction started six weeks earlier, the probability of maturation of young-of-the-year was more than ten times higher during mid-summer, and reproduction continued nearly two months later in the autumn than in the peak area. These differences were not found to be associated with a difference in age structure of overwintered animals between the two areas (assessed by the distribution of eye lens masses from autopsy samples). Although the population differences in reproductive traits were to some degree also present among the overwintered animals in the laboratory, we found no difference in reproductive traits in the laboratory-born generations. There was a strongly declining seasonal trend in probability of sexual maturation both in the field and in the laboratory under ambient light conditions. However, in the field there were large population differences in the steepness of the seasonal decline that were not seen under the standardised laboratory conditions. We conclude that seasonal decline in maturation rates is governed by change in photoperiod, but that the population level variation in the shape of the decline is caused by a direct response to the environment and not due to variation in any intrinsic state of the individuals reflecting the environment experienced by the previous generation(s).