A simple noninvasive index to predict significant liver fibrosis in patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica

BackgroundSchistosoma japonicum causes marked liver fibrosis, while lethal syndromes present in advanced schistosomiasis patients. Its management depends on the degree of fibrosis present.Patients and methodsFifty-two patients were recruited to assess the diagnostic value of bio-markers in patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica. Fibrosis was assessed in liver biopsies using METAVIR system. The correlation between conventional parameters and significant fibrosis (F2-F4) was assessed using univariate analysis and logistic regression. The method of area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) was used as a measurement of diagnostic efficacy.ResultsWhite blood cell counts, platelet counts and albumin (all P < 0.05) were significantly lower, while prothrombin time, international normalized ratio (INR), hyaluronic acid (HA), IV collagen and ultrasound fibrosis scores (all P < 0.01) were significantly elevated in F2-F4 patients compared with F0-F1 patients. HA and INR were identified as independent predictors by multivariate analysis (P = 0.023 and P = 0.013, respectively). Of the routine laboratory tests for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis, HA gave the best AUROC of 0.875 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.701–0.997). We constructed a new simple index (INR × HA/100) to discriminate between F2-F4 patients and F0-F1 patients. It showed the highest AUROC of 0.921 (95% CI: 0.828-1.000), and had better diagnostic values than APRI and FIB-4.ConclusionHA and INR were reliable markers for differentiating significant liver fibrosis in patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica. And the new simple index can easily predict significant liver fibrosis with a high degree of accuracy.     

Comparison of Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Autonomic Dysfunction Using Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression Analysis

Background

This study aimed to develop the artificial neural network (ANN) and multivariable logistic regression (LR) analyses for prediction modeling of cardiovascular autonomic (CA) dysfunction in the general population, and compare the prediction models using the two approaches.

Methods and Materials

We analyzed a previous dataset based on a Chinese population sample consisting of 2,092 individuals aged 30–80 years. The prediction models were derived from an exploratory set using ANN and LR analysis, and were tested in the validation set. Performances of these prediction models were then compared.

Results

Univariate analysis indicated that 14 risk factors showed statistically significant association with the prevalence of CA dysfunction (P<0.05). The mean area under the receiver-operating curve was 0.758 (95% CI 0.724–0.793) for LR and 0.762 (95% CI 0.732–0.793) for ANN analysis, but noninferiority result was found (P<0.001). The similar results were found in comparisons of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values in the prediction models between the LR and ANN analyses.

Conclusion

The prediction models for CA dysfunction were developed using ANN and LR. ANN and LR are two effective tools for developing prediction models based on our dataset.     

The Association between Preoperative Serum C-Reactive Protein and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Infection—A Retrospective Study

The prognosis of the patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence following curative hepatectomy is usually dismal. Whether preoperative serum C-reactive protein (CRP) can predict the recurrence of HCC in patients with chronic HBV infection is not clear. Total 232 patients with chronic HBV infection were included in this retrospective study. We investigated the association between detailed preoperative serum CRP levels and early (≤ 2 year) and late (> 2 year) HCC recurrence following curative hepatectomy. After adjusting for potential confounders, we found a saturation effect for preoperative serum CRP of 2.1 mg/dl existed for early HCC recurrence (ER). The incidence of ER increased with preoperative serum CRP less than 2.1 mg/dl (OR = 3.5, 95% CI 1.6–7.6, P = 0.001), and higher preoperative serum CRP (>2.1 mg/dl) did not increase the incidence of ER (OR = 0.8, 95% CI 0.2–2.7, P = 0.703). Whereas there is a linear relationship between preoperative serum CRP and late HCC recurrence (LR) (OR = 0.2, 95% CI, 0.1- 0.4) (OR = 1.8, 95% CI, 1.2–2.5, P = 0.002). In addition, the optimal cutoff point for serum CRP level was 1.5 mg/dl, instead of 1.0 mg/dl, in predicting both ER and LR. Patients with higher preoperative serum CRP level (>1.5 mg/dl) had lower recurrence free survival rates and overall survival rates (P<0.01). These results suggest that preoperative serum CRP played different roles on ER and LR following curative hepatectomy, thus further predictingthe prognosis in patients with chronic HBV infection.     

Comparison of Radioiodine Utilization in Adolescent and Young Adult and Older Thyroid Cancer Patients

ObjectiveDifferentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is 1 of the most common cancers in adolescents and young adults (AYA, ages 15-39). Although most AYAs with DTC are considered low risk compared to older patients, there are no specific postoperative radioiodine (RAI) treatment recommendations despite the potential adverse effects specific to this age group, namely secondary malignancies and fertility difficulties. This study compares factors influencing RAI utilization in AYA and older patients.MethodsA total of 5,687 primary DTC patients were identified from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database between January 1, 2004 and January 31, 2009. The 2009 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines were used to classify patients as low (LR) or intermediate/high risk (IHR) based on tumor characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed.ResultsOverall, 56.9% of AYA (n = 1,963) patients received postoperative RAI compared to 52.2% of older (n = 3,724) patients (odds ratio [OR]: 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-1.35, P = .001). For AYA patients, having a total thyroidectomy (TTx) (OR: 3.53, 95% CI: 2.7-4.61, P < .001) predicted RAI in a multivariate model whereas LR status (OR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.43-0.63, P < .001) and northeast residence (OR: 0.39, 95% CI: 0.29-0.52, P < .001) decreased the probability. All 3 factors similarly affected older patients in addition to an increased likelihood after lymph node (LN) dissection. Additionally, after selecting for TTx (n = 1,077), no factor influenced the use of RAI for AYA patients, whereas LR (OR: 0.30, 95% CI: 0.21-0.43, P < .001) and northeast residence (OR: 0.39, 95% CI: 0.19-0.79, P = .008) were associated with decreased RAI use in older patients.ConclusionDespite their excellent prognosis, AYA thyroid cancer patients are more likely to receive postoperative RAI compared to older patients. Increased awareness of the unique survivorship implications for AYA patients will be an important aspect to address going forward. (Endocr Pract. 2014;20:405-411)     

Lack of Pupil Reflex and Loss of Consciousness Predict 30-Day Neurological Sequelae in Patients with Carbon Monoxide Poisoning

Background

Predicting the neurological sequelae of carbon monoxide poisoning (COP) has not been well studied. We investigated the independent predictors of neurological sequelae in patients with COP and combined these predictors to predict the prognosis.

Methods

This study was conducted at four hospitals in Shandong Province, China. Data were retrospectively collected from 258 patients with COP between November 1990 and October 2011. Thirty-day neurological sequelae were the primary endpoints.

Results

A lack of pupil reflex and a loss of consciousness appear to be independent predictors for neurological sequelae in patients with COP. The presence of either one had a sensitivity of 77.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 69.3–83.2), a specificity of 47.1% (95% CI: 38.3–56.0), positive predictive value (PPV) of 62.9% (95% CI: 55.2–70.1), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 63.6% (95% CI: 52.6–73.4). With both predictors present, the sensitivity was 11.5% (95% CI: 6.9 to 18.3), the specificity was 99.2 (95% CI: 94.7–100.0), the PPV was 94.1% (95% CI: 69.2–99.7), and the NPV was 49.0% (95% CI: 42.5–55.5).

Conclusions

The risk for neurological sequelae apparently increased with the number of independent predictors. In patients with both predictors, the risk for neurological sequelae was 94.1%. Almost all (99.2%) patients with neither predictor had no neurological sequelae. This finding may help physicians make decisions about and dispositions for patients with COP. For patients with a higher risk, earlier treatment and more appropriate utilization of health care services, including hyperbaric oxygen, should be considered.     

Lack of association between <Emphasis Type="Italic">MDR1</Emphasis> C3435T polymorphism and chemotherapy response in advanced breast cancer patients: evidence from current studies

The transmembrane transport of anticancer drugs is mainly regulated by P-glycoprotein encoded by the human multidrug resistance gene 1 gene (MDR1). Since there were controversies regarding the association between MDR1 C3435T polymorphism and response to chemotherapy among patients with advanced breast cancer, a meta-analysis of the link was conducted. A total of 7 studies consist of 464 advanced breast cancer patients relating MDR1 C3435T polymorphism to the response of chemotherapy were included in this meta-analysis. The main analysis revealed a lack of association between the MDR1 C3435T and response to chemotherapy, with odds ratios (ORs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 1.37 (95% CI: 0.78–2.40), 1.17 (95% CI: 0.69–2.01), 1.18 (95% CI: 0.76–1.84) and 1.61 (95% CI: 0.70–3.68) for homozygous comparison, heterozygous comparison, dominant model and recessive model, respectively. The subgroup analysis by ethnicity did not change the pattern of results, with ORs of 0.99 (95% CI: 0.11–9.07), 0.68 (95% CI: 0.29–1.60), 0.81 (95% CI: 0.36–1.85) and 1.51 (95% CI: 0.77–2.96), in homozygous comparison, heterozygous comparison, dominant model and recessive model, respectively in Caucasian, and 1.50 (95% CI: 0.75–3.03), 1.72 (95% CI: 0.85–3.47), 1.59 (95% CI: 0.90–2.80) and 2.29 (95% CI: 0.51–10.35), respectively in Asian. The available evidence indicates that MDR1 C3435T polymorphism cannot be considered as a reliable predictor of response to chemotherapy in patients with advanced breast cancer.     

Mortalidad en pacientes con demencia que cursaron internación en unidades de cuidados críticos

ObjectiveTo determine the mortality and comorbidities associated of patients with dementia admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) on the hospitalization and at one year of follow-up.Materials and methodsA retrospective observational cohort study was carried out between 2012 and 2017 at the Hospital Italiano de San Justo, of patients who were admitted to the ICU, these were observed up to hospitalary death, out hospital death one year of hospitalization, the disenrollment from the institution's health plan or the end of the follow-up.ResultsA total of 163 patients were included for analysis. We recorded those 79 patients (48.47%) died one year after the hospitalization, of them 25 (15.34%) in ICU and 8 (4.91%) in general room. The most frequent causes of death were respiratory. The factors most associated with mortality were: orotracheal intubation (HR = 2.01; 95% CI: 1.11-3.65; P = .02), history of leukemia (HR = 8.55; 95% CI: 1.82-40.05; P ≤ .05), elevated Charlson (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.04-1.41; P = .05), and elevated APACHE II at admission (HR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.03-1.11; P ≤ .05).ConclusionsThe present study expresses the prognosis of patients with a diagnosis of dementia admitted to the ICU and that depends not only on their baseline neurological status but also on the severity at admission and comorbidities.     

Beyond the 5-year milestone: Long-term survivorship of melanoma patients treated off-trial with anti-PD-1

Little is known about the long-term outcomes of anti-PD-1 treated patients with melanoma beyond 5 years, especially for patients treated off clinical trials. This retrospective cohort study includes patients with unresectable stage III/IV nonuveal melanoma treated with anti-PD-1 off-trial at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center between 2014 and 2017 who survived at least 5 years following their first anti-PD-1 dose (N = 139). We characterized overall survival (OS), melanoma-specific survival (MSS) estimates, treatment-free survival rates, and subsequent treatment courses. Median follow-up among 5-plus year survivors (N = 125) was 78.4 months (range 60.0–96.3). OS at year 7 (2 years post 5-year landmark) was 90.1% (95% CI: 83.0%–94.3%). Fourteen deaths occurred, seven due to melanoma. MSS at year 7 (2 years post 5-year landmark) was 95.0% (95% CI: 33.5%–95.2%). In patients who completed anti-PD-1 based therapy and did not require subsequent treatment by 5 years (N = 80), the probability of not requiring additional treatment for an additional 2 years was 95.7% (95% CI: 91.0%–100%). Patients treated with anti-PD-1 regimens off clinical trials who survive at least 5 years from initial anti-PD-1 treatment can be reassured of their excellent long-term prognosis, particularly if they did not require additional melanoma treatment during the first 5 years.     

Survival and prognostic factors for patients with melanoma brain metastases in the era of modern systemic therapy

Historically, the prognosis of patients with melanoma brain metastases is poor, with median overall survival (OS) of 4‐6 months. Little is known of OS in the era of modern systemic therapies and local therapy with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) or surgery. Patients diagnosed with melanoma brain metastases at Melanoma Institute Australia from January 2011 to December 2014 were included. OS and prognostic factors were analysed using Cox regression and Kaplan‐Meier survival analyses.355 patients were included. The median OS was 7.1 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.0‐8.1). Median OS differed by treatment modality: systemic therapy and SRS and/or surgery 14.9 months (95% CI 10.7‐19.0), SRS and/or surgery with or without whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) 6.4 months (95% CI 5.4‐7.5), systemic therapy 5.4 months (95% CI 3.1‐7.7), systemic therapy and WBRT 5.2 months (95% CI 4.1‐6.4), WBRT 4.4 months (95% CI 2.4‐6.3), and best supportive care 1.8 months (95% CI 1.2‐2.3). OS for patients with melanoma brain metastases appears improved in the modern era, particularly for patients who are candidates for systemic therapy with SRS and/or surgery.     

Recurrence of Subdural Haematoma in a Population-Based Cohort – Risks and Predictive Factors

Objectives

To estimate the risks of and identify predictors for recurrent subdural haematoma in surgically and conservatively treated patients.

Methods

The cohort comprised all individuals diagnosed with a first-time subdural hematoma in Denmark 1996–2011. Information on potential predictors was retrieved from the Danish health registers. Cumulative recurrence risks were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Rate ratios (RR) were estimated using Poisson regression.

Results

Among 10,158 individuals with a subdural hematoma, 1,555 had a recurrent event. The cumulative risk of recurrent subdural hematoma was 9% at 4 weeks after the primary bleeding, increasing to and stabilising at 14% after one year. Predictors associated with recurrence were: Male sex (RR 1.60, 95% CI:1.43–1.80), older age (>70 years compared to 20–49 years; RR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.21–1.65), alcohol addiction (RR 1.20, 95% CI:1.04–1.37), surgical treatment (RR 1.76, 95% CI:1.58–1.96), trauma diagnoses (RR 1.14, 95% CI:1.03–1.27), and diabetes mellitus (RR 1.40, 95% CI:1.11–1.74). Out of a selected combination of risk factors, the highest cumulative 1-year recurrence risks for subdural hematoma of 25% (compared to 14% for all patients) was found in surgically treated males with diabetes mellitus.

Conclusions

The recurrence risk of subdural hematoma is largely limited to the first year. Patient characteristics including co-morbidities greatly influence the recurrence risk of SDH, suggesting that individualized prognostic guidance and follow-up is needed.     

基于多光谱卫星影像与机器学习算法的松材线虫病受害林分识别研究

松材线虫病(Pine Wilt Disease, PWD)被称为“松树癌症”,具有高传染率和高死亡率,对我国森林资源构成了严重的威胁,对我国的经济、社会和生态造成了重大损失。及时发现并清理疫木是遏制松材线虫病蔓延的有效手段,精准监测疫木是防控松材线虫病的前提,但是现阶段缺少大面积识别松材线虫病疫木的技术方法。本文旨在探索哨兵-2号与Landsat-8遥感卫星影像对受害松林的识别能力,采用随机森林(Random Forest, RF)、支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)、决策树(Decision Tree, DT)和极端梯度提升(Extreme Gradient Boosting, XGBoost)等4种机器学习算法建立了松材线虫病监测模型。结果表明：基于哨兵-2号影像数据建立的监测模型对受害松林的识别准确率高于Landsat-8遥感卫星影像,其中基于10 m分辨率的影像数据建立的监测模型识别准确率最高,随机森林、决策树、支持向量机和极端梯度提升等算法建立模型的准确率分别达到了79.3%、76.2%、78.7%和78.9%。在3种不同的影像数据集中,RF...     

Incidence and outcomes of chronic total occlusion percutaneous coronary intervention in the Netherlands: data from a nationwide registry

Background

Patients with chronic total coronary occlusions (CTO) are at increased risk for poor clinical outcomes. We aimed to determine the incidence of CTO percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and to identify CTO patients at risk for cardiac events in the nationwide Netherlands Heart Registration (NHR).

Methods

We included all PCI procedures with ≥1 CTO registered in the NHR from January 2015 to December 2018, excluding acute interventions. We used multivariable logistic regression of baseline characteristics to calculate the risk for events as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Of the PCIs performed during the study period, 6.3% (8,343/133,042) were for CTOs, with the percentage increasing significantly over time from 5.9% in 2015 to 6.6% in 2018 (p < 0.001). Coronary artery bypass grafting <24 h was carried out in 0.3%, and the only significant predictor was diabetes mellitus (OR 2.97, 95% CI 1.04–8.49, p = 0.042). Myocardial infarction (MI) <30 days occurred in 0.5%, and renal insufficiency (i.e. estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 ml/min per 1.73 m²) was identified as an independent predictor (OR 4.70, 95% CI 1.07–20.61, p = 0.040). Among patients undergoing CTO-PCI, 1‑year mortality was 3.7%, and independent predictors included renal insufficiency (OR 5.59, 95% CI 3.25–9.59, p < 0.001), left ventricular ejection fraction <30% (OR 3.43, 95% CI 2.00–5.90, p < 0.001), previous MI (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.14–2.31, p = 0.007) and age (OR 1.06 per year increment, 95% CI 1.04–1.07, p < 0.001). Target-vessel revascularisation <1 year occurred in 11.3%.

Conclusion

CTO-PCI is still infrequently performed in the Netherlands. The most important predictor of mortality after CTO-PCI was renal insufficiency. Identification of patients at risk may help improve the prognosis of CTO patients in the future.

     

Radiofrequency Ablation versus Resection for Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases: A Meta-Analysis

Background

No randomized controlled trial (RCT) has yet been performed to provide the evidence to clarify the therapeutic debate on liver resection (LR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in treating colorectal liver metastases (CLM). The meta-analysis was performed to summarize the evidence mostly from retrospective clinical trials and to investigate the effect of LR and RFA.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Systematic literature search of clinical studies was carried out to compare RFA and LR for CLM in Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane Library Central databases. The meta-analysis was performed using risk ratio (RR) and random effect model, in which 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for RR were calculated. Primary outcomes were the overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) at 3 and 5 years plus mortality and morbidity. 1 prospective study and 12 retrospective studies were finally eligible for meta-analysis. LR was significantly superior to RFA in 3 -year OS (RR 1.377, 95% CI: 1.246–1.522); 5-year OS (RR: 1.474, 95%CI: 1.284–1.692); 3-year DFS (RR 1.735, 95% CI: 1.483–2.029) and 5-year DFS (RR 2.227, 95% CI: 1.823–2.720). The postoperative morbidity was higher in LR (RR: 2.495, 95% CI: 1.881–3.308), but no significant difference was found in mortality between LR and RFA. The data from the 3 subgroups (tumor<3 cm; solitary tumor; open surgery or laparoscopic approach) showed significantly better OS and DFS in patients who received surgical resection.

Conclusions/Significances

Although multiple confounders exist in the clinical trials especially the bias in patient selection, LR was significantly superior to RFA in the treatment of CLM, even when conditions limited to tumor<3 cm, solitary tumor and open surgery or laparoscopic (lap) approach. Therefore, caution should be taken when treating CLM with RFA before more supportive evidences for RFA from RCTs are obtained.     

Predictors for Stroke and Death in Non-Anticoagulated Asian Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: The Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of stroke and death. Data on the predictors for stroke and death in ‘real-world’ AF patients are limited, especially from large prospective Asian cohorts.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey designed to enroll all AF patients who visited the participating medical institutions in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. Follow-up data were available for 3,304 patients (median follow-up period 741 days). We explored the predictors for ‘death, stroke, and systemic embolism (SE)’ during follow-up in 1,541 patients not receiving oral anticoagulants (OAC) at baseline.

Results

The mean age was 73.1 ± 12.5 years, and 673 (44%) patients were female. The mean CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores were 1.76 and 3.08, respectively. Cumulative events were as follows: stroke/SE in 61 (4%) and death in 230 (15%), respectively. On multivariate analysis, advanced age (hazard ratio (HR): 1.68, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24–2.29), underweight (body mass index <18.5 kg/m²) (HR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.25–2.32), previous stroke/SE/transient ischemic attack (HR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.25–2.30), heart failure (HR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.17–2.15), chronic kidney disease (HR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.16–2.02), and anemia (HR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.78–3.28) were independent predictors for death/stroke/SE. Cumulative numbers of these 6 risk predictors could stratify the incidence of death/stroke/SE in patients without OAC, as well as those with OAC in our registry.

Conclusions

Advanced age, underweight, previous stroke/SE/transient ischemic attack, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and anemia were independently associated with the risk of death/stroke/SE in non-anticoagulated Japanese AF patients.     

ERCC1 expression as a prognostic and predictive factor in patients with non-small cell lung cancer: a meta-analysis

It is hypothesized that high expression of the excision repair cross-complementation group 1 (ERCC1) gene might be a positive prognostic factor, but predict decreased sensitivity to platinum-based chemotherapy. Results from the published data are inconsistent. To derive a more precise estimation of the relationship between ERCC1 and the prognosis and predictive response to chemotherapy of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), a meta-analysis was performed. An electronic search of the PubMed and Embase database was performed. Hazard ratio (HR) for overall survival (OS) was pooled in early stage patients received surgery alone to analyze the prognosis of ERCC1 on NSCLC. HRs for OS in patients received surgery plus adjuvant chemotherapy and in patients received palliative chemotherapy and relative risk (RR) for overall response to chemotherapy were aggregated to analyze the prediction of ERCC1 on NSCLC. The pooled HR indicated that high ERCC1 levels were associated with longer survival in early stage patients received surgery alone (HR, 0.69; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.58–0.83; P = 0.000). There was no difference in survival between high and low ERCC1 levels in patients received surgery plus adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 0.93–2.12; P = 0.106). However, high ERCC1 levels were associated with shorter survival and lower response to chemotherapy in advanced NSCLC patients received palliative chemotherapy (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.39–2.22; P = 0.000; RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64–0.93; P = 0.007; respectively). The meta-analysis indicated that high ERCC1 expression might be a favourable prognostic and a drug resistance predictive factor for NSCLC.     

Spatio-temporal air quality analysis and PM2.5 prediction over Hyderabad City,India using artificial intelligence techniques

Air pollution is one of the most serious environmental issues faced by humans, and it affects the quality of life in cities. PM_2.5 forecasting models can be used to create strategies for assessing and warning the public about anticipated harmful levels of air pollution. Accurate pollutant concentration measurements and forecasting are critical criteria for assessing air quality and are the foundation for making the right strategic decisions. Data-driven machine learning models for PM_2.5 forecasting have gained attention in the recent past. In this study, PM_2.5 prediction for Hyderabad city was carried out using various machine learning models viz. Multi-Linear Regression (MLR), decision tree (DT), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forest (RF), and XGBoost. A deep learning model, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, was also used in this study. The results obtained were finally compared based on error and R² value. The best model was selected based on its maximum R² value and minimal error. The model's performance was further improved using the randomized search CV hyperparameter optimization technique. Spatio-temporal air quality analysis was initially conducted, and it was found that the average winter PM_2.5 concentrations were 68% higher than the concentrations in summer. The analysis revealed that XGBoost regression was the best-performing machine learning model with an R² value of 0.82 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 7.01 μg/ m³, whereas the LSTM deep learning model performed better than XGBoost regression for PM_2.5 modeling with an R² value of 0.89 and an MAE of 5.78 μg/ m³.     

Community-acquired infections and their association with myeloid malignancies

Introduction: Antigenic stimulation is a proposed aetiologic mechanism for many haematological malignancies. Limited evidence suggests that community-acquired infections may increase the risk of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). However, associations with other myeloid malignancies including chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) and myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are unknown. Materials and methods: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result (SEER)-Medicare database, fourteen community-acquired infections were compared between myeloid malignancy patients [AML (n = 8489), CML (n = 3626) diagnosed 1992–2005; MDS (n = 3072) and MPNs (n = 2001) diagnosed 2001–2005; and controls (200,000 for AML/CML and 97,681 for MDS/MPN]. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were adjusted for gender, age and year of selection excluding infections diagnosed in the 13-month period prior to selection to reduce reverse causality. Results: Risk of AML and MDS respectively, were significantly associated with respiratory tract infections, bronchitis (ORs 1.20 [95% CI: 1.14–1.26], 1.25 [95% CI: 1.16–1.36]), influenza (ORs 1.16 [95% CI: 1.07–1.25], 1.29 [95% CI: 1.16–1.44]), pharyngitis (ORs 1.13 [95% CI: 1.06–1.21], 1.22 [95% CI: 1.11–1.35]), pneumonia (ORs 1.28 [95% CI: 1.21–1.36], 1.52 [95% CI: 1.40–1.66]), sinusitis (ORs 1.23 [95% CI: 1.16–1.30], 1.25 [95% CI: 1.15–1.36]) as was cystitis (ORs 1.13 [95% CI: 1.07–1.18], 1.26 [95% CI: 1.17–1.36]). Cellulitis (OR 1.51 [95% CI: 1.39–1.64]), herpes zoster (OR 1.31 [95% CI: 1.14–1.50]) and gastroenteritis (OR 1.38 [95% CI: 1.17–1.64]) were more common in MDS patients than controls. For CML, associations were limited to bronchitis (OR 1.21 [95% CI: 1.12–1.31]), pneumonia (OR 1.49 [95% CI: 1.37–1.62]), sinusitis (OR 1.19 [95% CI: 1.09–1.29]) and cellulitis (OR 1.43 [95% CI: 1.32–1.55]) following Bonferroni correction. Only cellulitis (OR 1.34 [95% CI: 1.21–1.49]) remained significant in MPN patients. Many infections remained elevated when more than 6 years of preceding claims data were excluded. Discussion: Common community-acquired infections may be important in the malignant transformation of the myeloid lineage. Differences in the aetiology of classic MPNs and other myeloid malignancies require further exploration.     

Algorithm for diagnosis of early Schistosoma haematobium using prodromal signs and symptoms in pre-school age children in an endemic district in Zimbabwe

IntroductionPrompt diagnosis of acute schistosomiasis benefits the individual and provides opportunities for early public health intervention. In endemic areas schistosomiasis is usually contracted during the first 5 years of life, thus it is critical to look at how the infection manifests in this age group. The aim of this study was to describe the prodromal signs and symptoms of early schistosomiasis infection, correlate these with early disease progression and risk score to develop an easy to use clinical algorithm to identify early Schistosoma haematobium infection cases in resource limited settings.MethodologyTwo hundred and four, preschool age children who were lifelong residence of a schistosomiasis endemic district and at high risk of acquiring schistosomiasis were followed up from July 2019 to December 2019, during high transmission season. The children received interval and standard full clinical evaluations and laboratory investigations for schistosomiasis by clinicians blinded from their schistosomiasis infection status. Diagnosis of S. haematobium was by urine filtration collected over three consecutive days. Signs and symptoms of schistosomiasis at first examination visit were compared to follow-up visits. Signs and symptoms common on the last schistosomiasis negative visit (before a subsequent positive) were assigned as early schistosomiasis infection (ESI), after possible alternative causes were ruled out. Logistic regression identified clinical predictors. A model based score was assigned to each predictor to create a risk for every child. An algorithm was created based on the predictor risk scores and validated on a separate cohort of 537 preschool age children.ResultsTwenty-one percent (42) of the participants were negative for S. haematobium infection at baseline but turned positive at follow-up. The ESI participants at the preceding S. haematobium negative visit had the following prodromal signs and symptoms in comparison to non-ESI participants; pruritic rash adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 21.52 (95% CI 6.38–72.66), fever AOR = 82 (95% CI 10.98–612), abdominal pain AOR = 2.6 (95% CI 1.25–5.43), pallor AOR = 4 (95% CI 1.44–11.12) and a history of facial/body swelling within the previous month AOR = 7.31 (95% CI 3.49–15.33). Furthermore 16% of the ESI group had mild normocytic anaemia, whilst 2% had moderate normocytic anaemia. A risk score model was created using a rounded integer from the relative risks ratios. The diagnostic algorithm created had a sensitivity of 81% and a specificity of 96.9%, Positive predictive value = 87.2% and NPV was 95.2%. The area under the curve for the algorithm was 0.93 (0.90–0.97) in comparison with the urine dipstick AUC = 0.58 (0.48–0.69). There was a similar appearance in the validation cohort as in the derivative cohort.ConclusionThis study demonstrates for the first time prodromal signs and symptoms associated with early S. haematobium infection in pre-school age children. These prodromal signs and symptoms pave way for early intervention and management, thus decreasing the harm of late diagnosis. Our algorithm has the potential to assist in risk-stratifying pre-school age children for early S. haematobium infection. Independent validation of the algorithm on another cohort is needed to assess the utility further.     

Identification of a metabolic signature for multidimensional impairment and mortality risk in hospitalized older patients

A combination of several metabolic and hormonal adaptations has been proposed to control aging. Little is known regarding the effects of multiple deregulations of these metabolic and hormonal systems in modulating frailty and mortality in hospitalized elderly patients. We measured 17 biological serum parameters from different metabolic/hormonal pathways in 594 hospitalized elderly patients followed up to 1 year who were stratified into three groups according to their multidimensional impairment, evaluated by a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA)‐based Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI). The mortality incidence rates were 7% at 1 month and 21% at 1 year. Our data show that frailty and mortality rate were positively associated with chronic inflammation and with a down‐regulation of multiple endocrine factors. Of the 17 biomarkers examined, blood levels of IGF‐1, triiodothyronine, C‐reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, white blood cell and lymphocyte counts, iron, albumin, total cholesterol, and LDL‐c were significantly associated with both MPI severity grade and mortality. In multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, the following biomarkers most strongly predicted the risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per 1 quintile increment in predictor distribution): IGF‐1 HR = 0.71 (95% CI: 0.63–0.80), CRP HR = 1.48 (95% CI: 1.32–1.65), hemoglobin HR = 0.82 (95% CI: 0.73–0.92), and glucose HR = 1.17 (95% CI: 1.04–1.30). Multidimensional impairment assessed by MPI is associated with a distinctive metabolic ‘signature’. The concomitant elevation of markers of inflammation, associated with a simultaneous reduction in multiple metabolic and hormonal factors, predicts mortality in hospitalized elderly patients.     

The effects of health education on schistosomiasis japonica prevalence and relevant knowledge in the People's Republic of China: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Schistosomiasis japonica continues to be an important zoonotic disease in the People's Republic of China (P.R. China), despite decades of dedicated control efforts. Different interventions for its control including chemotherapy of humans and animals, mollusciciding, environmental modification, and health education have been implemented at various stages of the control efforts and in different combinations, resulting in remarkable achievements. Here, we present a systematic review and meta-analysis of the documented effectiveness of health education to reduce schistosomiasis japonica transmission in P.R. China. A total of 10 relevant publications were identified and included in the meta-analysis. The reported results indicate that the prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infection in humans and schistosomiasis-related knowledge are significantly influenced by health education. The implementation of health education over more than 2 years was associated with an overall schistosomiasis japonica prevalence decrease of 6% (95% CI: 2%, 11%) and an overall increase of 51% (95% CI: 41%, 61%) in schistosomiasis-related knowledge after controlling for confounding factors. Among control groups, the prevalence of schistosomiasis japonica and relevant knowledge levels were not significantly influenced. The relative risk (RR) of an infection with S. japonicum following health education lasting more than 2 years was 0.43 (95% CI: 0.24, 0.78). In summary, a considerable effectiveness of health education with regard to preventing S. japonicum infections in P.R. China and increasing relevant knowledge is documented in the extant literature. This suggests that the effectiveness of health education may be considerable, particularly after its long-term implementation.