Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis to Reduce HIV-1 and HSV-2 Incidence in HIV-Serodiscordant Couples in South Africa

Objective

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of daily oral tenofovir-based PrEP, with a protective effect against HSV-2 as well as HIV-1, among HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in South Africa.

Methods

We incorporated HSV-2 acquisition, transmission, and interaction with HIV-1 into a microsimulation model of heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in South Africa, with use of PrEP for the HIV-1 uninfected partner prior to ART initiation for the HIV-1 1infected partner, and for one year thereafter.

Results

We estimate the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted for two scenarios, one in which PrEP has no effect on reducing HSV-2 acquisition, and one in which there is a 33% reduction. After a twenty-year intervention, the cost per DALY averted is estimated to be $10,383 and $9,757, respectively – a 6% reduction, given the additional benefit of reduced HSV-2 acquisition. If all couples are discordant for both HIV-1 and HSV-2, the cost per DALY averted falls to $1,445, which shows that the impact is limited by HSV-2 concordance in couples.

Conclusion

After a 20-year PrEP intervention, the cost per DALY averted with a reduction in HSV-2 is estimated to be modestly lower than without any effect, providing an increase of health benefits in addition to HIV-1 prevention at no extra cost. The small degree of the effect is in part due to a high prevalence of HSV-2 infection in HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in South Africa.     

Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Prenatal Distribution of Misoprostol for Prevention of Postpartum Hemorrhage in Uganda

Background

In settings where home birth rates are high, prenatal distribution of misoprostol has been advocated as a strategy to increase access to uterotonics during the third stage of labor to prevent postpartum hemorrhage (PPH). Our objective was to project the potential cost-effectiveness of this strategy in Uganda from both governmental (the relevant payer) and modified societal perspectives.

Methods and Findings

To compare prenatal misoprostol distribution to status quo (no misoprostol distribution), we developed a decision analytic model that tracked the delivery pathways of a cohort of pregnant women from the prenatal period, labor to delivery without complications or delivery with PPH, and successful treatment or death. Delivery pathway parameters were derived from the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey. Incidence of PPH, treatment efficacy, adverse event and case fatality rates, access to misoprostol, and health resource use and cost data were obtained from published literature and supplemented with expert opinion where necessary. We computed the expected incidence of PPH, mortality, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), costs and incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We conducted univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to examine robustness of our results. In the base-case analysis, misoprostol distribution lowered the expected incidence of PPH by 1.0% (95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.55%, 1.95%), mortality by 0.08% (95% CrI: 0.04%, 0.13%) and DALYs by 0.02 (95% CrI: 0.01, 0.03). Mean costs were higher with prenatal misoprostol distribution from governmental by US$3.3 (95% CrI: 2.1, 4.2) and modified societal (by US$1.3; 95% CrI: -1.6, 2.8) perspectives. ICERs were US$191 (95% CrI: 82, 443) per DALY averted from a governmental perspective, and US$73 (95% CI: -86, 256) per DALY averted from a modified societal perspective.

Conclusions

Prenatal distribution of misoprostol is potentially cost-effective in Uganda and should be considered for national-level scale up for prevention of PPH.     

The Cost-Effectiveness of Monitoring Strategies for Antiretroviral Therapy of HIV Infected Patients in Resource-Limited Settings: Software Tool

Background

The cost-effectiveness of routine viral load (VL) monitoring of HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) depends on various factors that differ between settings and across time. Low-cost point-of-care (POC) tests for VL are in development and may make routine VL monitoring affordable in resource-limited settings. We developed a software tool to study the cost-effectiveness of switching to second-line ART with different monitoring strategies, and focused on POC-VL monitoring.

Methods

We used a mathematical model to simulate cohorts of patients from start of ART until death. We modeled 13 strategies (no 2^nd-line, clinical, CD4 (with or without targeted VL), POC-VL, and laboratory-based VL monitoring, with different frequencies). We included a scenario with identical failure rates across strategies, and one in which routine VL monitoring reduces the risk of failure. We compared lifetime costs and averted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). We developed an Excel tool to update the results of the model for varying unit costs and cohort characteristics, and conducted several sensitivity analyses varying the input costs.

Results

Introducing 2^nd-line ART had an ICER of US$1651-1766/DALY averted. Compared with clinical monitoring, the ICER of CD4 monitoring was US$1896-US$5488/DALY averted and VL monitoring US$951-US$5813/DALY averted. We found no difference between POC- and laboratory-based VL monitoring, except for the highest measurement frequency (every 6 months), where laboratory-based testing was more effective. Targeted VL monitoring was on the cost-effectiveness frontier only if the difference between 1^st- and 2^nd-line costs remained large, and if we assumed that routine VL monitoring does not prevent failure.

Conclusion

Compared with the less expensive strategies, the cost-effectiveness of routine VL monitoring essentially depends on the cost of 2^nd-line ART. Our Excel tool is useful for determining optimal monitoring strategies for specific settings, with specific sex-and age-distributions and unit costs.     

Cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy in southern Mozambique

Background

Malaria in pregnancy is a public health problem for endemic countries. Economic evaluations of malaria preventive strategies in pregnancy are needed to guide health policies.

Methods and Findings

This analysis was carried out in the context of a trial of malaria intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP), where both intervention groups received an insecticide treated net through the antenatal clinic (ANC) in Mozambique. The cost-effectiveness of IPTp-SP on maternal clinical malaria and neonatal survival was estimated. Correlation and threshold analyses were undertaken to assess the main factors affecting the economic outcomes and the cut-off values beyond which the intervention is no longer cost-effective. In 2007 US$, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for maternal malaria was 41.46 US$ (95% CI 20.5, 96.7) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. The ICER per DALY averted due to the reduction in neonatal mortality was 1.08 US$ (95% CI 0.43, 3.48). The ICER including both the effect on the mother and on the newborn was 1.02 US$ (95% CI 0.42, 3.21) per DALY averted. Efficacy was the main factor affecting the economic evaluation of IPTp-SP. The intervention remained cost-effective with an increase in drug cost per dose up to 11 times in the case of maternal malaria and 183 times in the case of neonatal mortality.

Conclusions

IPTp-SP was highly cost-effective for both prevention of maternal malaria and reduction of neonatal mortality in Mozambique. These findings are likely to hold for other settings where IPTp-SP is implemented through ANC visits. The intervention remained cost-effective even with a significant increase in drug and other intervention costs. Improvements in the protective efficacy of the intervention would increase its cost-effectiveness. Provision of IPTp with a more effective, although more expensive drug than SP may still remain a cost-effective public health measure to prevent malaria in pregnancy.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00209781","term_id":"NCT00209781"}}NCT00209781     

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a Home-Based HIV Counselling and Testing Intervention versus the Standard (Facility Based) HIV Testing Strategy in Rural South Africa

Introduction

There is growing evidence concerning the acceptability and feasibility of home-based HIV testing. However, less is known about the cost-effectiveness of the approach yet it is a critical component to guide decisions about scaling up access to HIV testing. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of a home-based HIV testing intervention in rural South Africa.

Methods

Two alternatives: clinic and home-based HIV counselling and testing were compared. Costs were analysed from a provider’s perspective for the period of January to December 2010. The outcome, HIV counselling and testing (HCT) uptake was obtained from the Good Start home-based HIV counselling and testing (HBHCT) cluster randomised control trial undertaken in KwaZulu-Natal province. Cost-effectiveness was estimated for a target population of 22,099 versus 23,864 people for intervention and control communities respectively. Average costs were calculated as the cost per client tested, while cost-effectiveness was calculated as the cost per additional client tested through HBHCT.

Results

Based on effectiveness of 37% in the intervention (HBHCT) arm compared to 16% in control arm, home based testing costs US$29 compared to US$38 per person for clinic HCT. The incremental cost effectiveness per client tested using HBHCT was $19.

Conclusions

HBHCT was less costly and more effective. Home-based HCT could present a cost-effective alternative for rural ‘hard to reach’ populations depending on affordability by the health system, and should be considered as part of community outreach programs.     

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Breast Cancer Control Interventions in Peru

Objectives

In Peru, a country with constrained health resources, breast cancer control is characterized by late stage treatment and poor survival. To support breast cancer control in Peru, this study aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of different breast cancer control interventions relevant for the Peruvian context.

Methods

We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) according to WHO-CHOICE guidelines, from a healthcare perspective. Different screening, early detection, palliative, and treatment interventions were evaluated using mathematical modeling. Effectiveness estimates were based on observational studies, modeling, and on information from Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Neoplásicas (INEN). Resource utilizations and unit costs were based on estimates from INEN and observational studies. Cost-effectiveness estimates are in 2012 United States dollars (US$) per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted.

Results

The current breast cancer program in Peru ($8,426 per DALY averted) could be improved through implementing triennial or biennial screening strategies. These strategies seem the most cost-effective in Peru, particularly when mobile mammography is applied (from $4,125 per DALY averted), or when both CBE screening and mammography screening are combined (from $4,239 per DALY averted). Triennially, these interventions costs between $63 million and $72 million per year. Late stage treatment, trastuzumab therapy and annual screening strategies are the least cost-effective.

Conclusions

Our analysis suggests that breast cancer control in Peru should be oriented towards early detection through combining fixed and mobile mammography screening (age 45-69) triennially. However, a phased introduction of triennial CBE screening (age 40-69) with upfront FNA in non-urban settings, and both CBE (age 40-49) and fixed mammography screening (age 50-69) in urban settings, seems a more feasible option and is also cost-effective. The implementation of this intervention is only meaningful if awareness raising, diagnostic, referral, treatment and basic palliative services are simultaneously improved, and if financial and organizational barriers to these services are reduced.     

Economic Evaluation of an Alternative Drug to Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine as Intermittent Preventive Treatment of Malaria in Pregnancy

Background

Intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is recommended in HIV-negative women to avert malaria, while this relies on cotrimoxazole prophylaxis (CTXp) in HIV-positive women. Alternative antimalarials are required in areas where parasite resistance to antifolate drugs is high. The cost-effectiveness of IPTp with alternative drugs is needed to inform policy.

Methods

The cost-effectiveness of 2-dose IPTp-mefloquine (MQ) was compared with IPTp-SP in HIV-negative women (Benin, Gabon, Mozambique and Tanzania). In HIV-positive women the cost-effectiveness of 3-dose IPTp-MQ added to CTXp was compared with CTXp alone (Kenya, Mozambique and Tanzania). The outcomes used were maternal clinical malaria, anaemia at delivery and non-obstetric hospital admissions. The poor tolerability to MQ was included as the value of women’s loss of working days. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and threshold analysis undertaken.

Results

For HIV-negative women, the ICER for IPTp-MQ versus IPTp-SP was 136.30 US$ (2012 US$) (95%CI 131.41; 141.18) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, or 237.78 US$ (95%CI 230.99; 244.57), depending on whether estimates from Gabon were included or not. For HIV-positive women, the ICER per DALY averted for IPTp-MQ added to CTXp, versus CTXp alone was 6.96 US$ (95%CI 4.22; 9.70). In HIV-negative women, moderate shifts of variables such as malaria incidence, drug cost, and IPTp efficacy increased the ICERs above the cost-effectiveness threshold. In HIV-positive women the intervention remained cost-effective for a substantial (up to 21 times) increase in cost per tablet.

Conclusions

Addition of IPTp with an effective antimalarial to CTXp was very cost-effective in HIV-positive women. IPTp with an efficacious antimalarial was more cost-effective than IPTp-SP in HIV-negative women. However, the poor tolerability of MQ does not favour its use as IPTp. Regardless of HIV status, prevention of malaria in pregnancy with a highly efficacious, well tolerated antimalarial would be cost-effective despite its high price.

Trials Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT 00811421; Pan African Trials Registry PACTR2010020001429343 and PACTR2010020001813440     

Rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis with the Xpert MTB/RIF assay in high burden countries: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is a promising new rapid diagnostic technology for tuberculosis (TB) that has characteristics that suggest large-scale roll-out. However, because the test is expensive, there are concerns among TB program managers and policy makers regarding its affordability for low- and middle-income settings.

Methods and Findings

We estimate the impact of the introduction of Xpert on the costs and cost-effectiveness of TB care using decision analytic modelling, comparing the introduction of Xpert to a base case of smear microscopy and clinical diagnosis in India, South Africa, and Uganda. The introduction of Xpert increases TB case finding in all three settings; from 72%–85% to 95%–99% of the cohort of individuals with suspected TB, compared to the base case. Diagnostic costs (including the costs of testing all individuals with suspected TB) also increase: from US$28–US$49 to US$133–US$146 and US$137–US$151 per TB case detected when Xpert is used “in addition to” and “as a replacement of” smear microscopy, respectively. The incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for using Xpert “in addition to” smear microscopy, compared to the base case, range from US$41–$110 per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Likewise the ICERS for using Xpert “as a replacement of” smear microscopy range from US$52–$138 per DALY averted. These ICERs are below the World Health Organization (WHO) willingness to pay threshold.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that Xpert is a cost-effective method of TB diagnosis, compared to a base case of smear microscopy and clinical diagnosis of smear-negative TB in low- and middle-income settings where, with its ability to substantially increase case finding, it has important potential for improving TB diagnosis and control. The extent of cost-effectiveness gain to TB programmes from deploying Xpert is primarily dependent on current TB diagnostic practices. Further work is required during scale-up to validate these findings. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Cost-effectiveness of opportunistic screening and minimal contact psychotherapy to prevent depression in primary care patients

Background

Depression causes a large burden of disease worldwide. Effective prevention has the potential to reduce that burden considerably. This study aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of minimal contact psychotherapy, based on Lewinsohn''s ‘Coping with depression’ course, targeted at opportunistically screened individuals with sub-threshold depression.

Methods and Results

Using a Markov model, future health effects and costs of an intervention scenario and a current practice scenario were estimated. The time horizon was five years. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were expressed in euro per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was employed to study the effect of uncertainty in the model parameters. From the health care perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was € 1,400 per DALY, and from the societal perspective the intervention was cost-saving. Although the estimated incremental costs and effects were surrounded with large uncertainty, given a willingness to pay of € 20,000 per DALY, the probability that the intervention is cost-effective was around 80%.

Conclusion

This modelling study showed that opportunistic screening in primary care for sub-threshold depression in combination with minimal contact psychotherapy may be cost-effective in the prevention of major depression.     

Cost Effectiveness of Implementing Integrated Management of Neonatal and Childhood Illnesses Program in District Faridabad,India

Introduction

Despite the evidence for preventing childhood morbidity and mortality, financial resources are cited as a constraint for Governments to scale up the key health interventions in some countries. We evaluate the cost effectiveness of implementing IMNCI program in India from a health system and societal perspective.

Methods

We parameterized a decision analytic model to assess incremental cost effectiveness of IMNCI program as against routine child health services for infant population at district level in India. Using a 15-years time horizon from 2007 to 2022, we populated the model using data on costs and effects as found from a cluster-randomized trial to assess effectiveness of IMNCI program in Haryana state. Effectiveness was estimated as reduction in infant illness episodes, deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALY). Incremental cost per DALY averted was used to estimate cost effectiveness of IMNCI. Future costs and effects were discounted at a rate of 3%. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken to estimate the probability of IMNCI to be cost effective at varying willingness to pay thresholds.

Results

Implementation of IMNCI results in a cumulative reduction of 57384 illness episodes, 2369 deaths and 76158 DALYs among infants at district level from 2007 to 2022. Overall, from a health system perspective, IMNCI program incurs an incremental cost of USD 34.5 (INR 1554) per DALY averted, USD 34.5 (INR 1554) per life year gained, USD 1110 (INR 49963) per infant death averted. There is 90% probability for ICER to be cost effective at INR 2300 willingness to pay, which is 5.5% of India’s GDP per capita. From a societal perspective, IMNCI program incurs an additional cost of USD 24.1 (INR 1082) per DALY averted, USD 773 (INR 34799) per infant death averted and USD 26.3 (INR 1183) per illness averted in during infancy.

Conclusion

IMNCI program in Indian context is very cost effective and should be scaled-up as a major child survival strategy.     

Community Mobilisation and Empowerment Interventions as Part of HIV Prevention for Female Sex Workers in Southern India: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Background

Most HIV prevention for female sex workers (FSWs) focuses on individual behaviour change involving peer educators, condom promotion and the provision of sexual health services. However, there is a growing recognition of the need to address broader societal, contextual and structural factors contributing to FSW risk behaviour. We assess the cost-effectiveness of adding community mobilisation (CM) and empowerment interventions (eg. community mobilisation, community involvement in programme management and services, violence reduction, and addressing legal policies and police practices), to core HIV prevention services delivered as part of Avahan in two districts (Bellary and Belgaum) of Karnataka state, Southern India.

Methods

An ingredients approach was used to estimate economic costs in US$ 2011 from an HIV programme perspective of CM and empowerment interventions over a seven year period (2004–2011). Incremental impact, in terms of HIV infections averted, was estimated using a two-stage process. An ‘exposure analysis’ explored whether exposure to CM was associated with FSW’s empowerment, risk behaviours and HIV/STI prevalence. Pathway analyses were then used to estimate the extent to which behaviour change may be attributable to CM and to inform a dynamic HIV transmission model.

Findings

The incremental costs of CM and empowerment were US$ 307,711 in Belgaum and US$ 592,903 in Bellary over seven years (2004–2011). Over a 7-year period (2004–2011) the mean (standard deviation, sd.) number of HIV infections averted through CM and empowerment is estimated to be 1257 (308) in Belgaum and 2775 (1260) in Bellary. This translates in a mean (sd.) incremental cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted of US$ 14.12 (3.68) in Belgaum and US$ 13.48 (6.80) for Bellary - well below the World Health Organisation recommended willingness to pay threshold for India. When savings from ART are taken into account, investments in CM and empowerment are cost saving.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that CM and empowerment is, at worst, highly cost-effective and, at best, a cost-saving investment from an HIV programme perspective. CM and empowerment interventions should therefore be considered as core components of HIV prevention programmes for FSWs.     

A Cost Effectiveness and Capacity Analysis for the Introduction of Universal Rotavirus Vaccination in Kenya: Comparison between Rotarix and RotaTeq Vaccines

Background

Diarrhoea is an important cause of death in the developing world, and rotavirus is the single most important cause of diarrhoea associated mortality. Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are available to prevent rotavirus disease. This analysis was undertaken to aid the decision in Kenya as to which vaccine to choose when introducing rotavirus vaccination.

Methods

Cost-effectiveness modelling, using national and sentinel surveillance data, and an impact assessment on the cold chain.

Results

The median estimated incidence of rotavirus disease in Kenya was 3015 outpatient visits, 279 hospitalisations and 65 deaths per 100,000 children under five years of age per year. Cumulated over the first five years of life vaccination was predicted to prevent 34% of the outpatient visits, 31% of the hospitalizations and 42% of the deaths. The estimated prevented costs accumulated over five years totalled US$1,782,761 (direct and indirect costs) with an associated 48,585 DALYs. From a societal perspective Rotarix had a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$142 per DALY (US$5 for the full course of two doses) and RotaTeq US$288 per DALY ($10.5 for the full course of three doses). RotaTeq will have a bigger impact on the cold chain compared to Rotarix.

Conclusion

Vaccination against rotavirus disease is cost-effective for Kenya irrespective of the vaccine. Of the two vaccines Rotarix was the preferred choice due to a better cost-effectiveness ratio, the presence of a vaccine vial monitor, the requirement of fewer doses and less storage space, and proven thermo-stability.     

Costs of Promoting Exclusive Breastfeeding at Community Level in Three Sites in South Africa

Background

Community-based peer support has been shown to be effective in improving exclusive breastfeeding rates in a variety of settings.

Methods

We conducted a cost analysis of a community cluster randomised-controlled trial (Promise-EBF), aimed at promoting exclusive infant feeding in three sites in South Africa. The costs were considered from the perspective of health service providers. Peer supporters in this trial visited women to support exclusive infant feeding, once antenatally and four times postpartum.

Results

The total economic cost of the Promise-EBF intervention was US$393 656, with average costs per woman and per visit of US$228 and US$52, respectively. The average costs per woman and visit in an operational ‘non research’ scenario were US$137 and US$32 per woman and visit, respectively. Investing in the promotion of exclusive infant feeding requires substantial financial commitment from policy makers. Extending the tasks of multi-skilled community health workers (CHWs) to include promoting exclusive infant feeding is a potential option for reducing these costs. In order to avoid efficiency losses, we recommend that the time requirements for delivering the promotion of exclusive infant feeding are considered when integrating it within the existing activities of CHWs.

Discussion

This paper focuses on interventions for exclusive infant feeding, but its findings more generally illustrate the importance of documenting and quantifying factors that affect the feasibility and sustainability of community-based interventions, which are receiving increased focus in low income settings.     

Assessment of Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of 10-Valent and 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination in Kenyan Children

Background

The GAVI Alliance supported10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) introduction in Kenya. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of introducing either PCV10 or the13-valent vaccine (PCV13) from a societal perspective and explored the incremental impact of including indirect vaccine effects.

Methods

The costs and effects of pneumococcal vaccination among infants born in Kenya in 2010 were assessed using a decision analytic model comparing PCV10 or PCV13, in turn, with no vaccination. Direct vaccine effects were estimated as a reduction in the incidence of pneumococcal meningitis, sepsis, bacteraemic pneumonia and non-bacteraemic pneumonia. Pneumococcal disease incidence was extrapolated from a population-based hospital surveillance system in Kilifi and adjustments were made for variable access to care across Kenya. We used vaccine efficacy estimates from a trial in The Gambia and accounted for serotype distribution in Kilifi. We estimated indirect vaccine protection and serotype replacement by extrapolating from the USA. Multivariable sensitivity analysis was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation. We assumed a vaccine price of US$ 3.50 per dose.

Findings

The annual cost of delivering PCV10 was approximately US$14 million. We projected a 42.7% reduction in pneumococcal disease episodes leading to a US$1.97 million reduction in treatment costs and a 6.1% reduction in childhood mortality annually. In the base case analysis, costs per discounted DALY and per death averted by PCV10, amounted to US$ 59 (95% CI 26–103) and US$ 1,958 (95% CI 866–3,425), respectively. PCV13 introduction improved the cost-effectiveness ratios by approximately 20% and inclusion of indirect effects improved cost-effectiveness ratios by 43–56%. The break-even prices for introduction of PCV10 and PCV13 are US$ 0.41 and 0.51, respectively.

Conclusions

Introducing either PCV10 or PCV13 in Kenya is highly cost-effective from a societal perspective. Indirect effects, if they occur, would significantly improve the cost-effectiveness.     

Male Circumcision at Different Ages in Rwanda: A Cost-Effectiveness Study

Background

There is strong evidence showing that male circumcision (MC) reduces HIV infection and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). In Rwanda, where adult HIV prevalence is 3%, MC is not a traditional practice. The Rwanda National AIDS Commission modelled cost and effects of MC at different ages to inform policy and programmatic decisions in relation to introducing MC. This study was necessary because the MC debate in Southern Africa has focused primarily on MC for adults. Further, this is the first time, to our knowledge, that a cost-effectiveness study on MC has been carried out in a country where HIV prevalence is below 5%.

Methods and Findings

A cost-effectiveness model was developed and applied to three hypothetical cohorts in Rwanda: newborns, adolescents, and adult men. Effectiveness was defined as the number of HIV infections averted, and was calculated as the product of the number of people susceptible to HIV infection in the cohort, the HIV incidence rate at different ages, and the protective effect of MC; discounted back to the year of circumcision and summed over the life expectancy of the circumcised person. Direct costs were based on interviews with experienced health care providers to determine inputs involved in the procedure (from consumables to staff time) and related prices. Other costs included training, patient counselling, treatment of adverse events, and promotion campaigns, and they were adjusted for the averted lifetime cost of health care (antiretroviral therapy [ART], opportunistic infection [OI], laboratory tests). One-way sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the main inputs of the model, and thresholds were calculated at which each intervention is no longer cost-saving and at which an intervention costs more than one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita per life-year gained. Results: Neonatal MC is less expensive than adolescent and adult MC (US$15 instead of US$59 per procedure) and is cost-saving (the cost-effectiveness ratio is negative), even though savings from infant circumcision will be realized later in time. The cost per infection averted is US$3,932 for adolescent MC and US$4,949 for adult MC. Results for infant MC appear robust. Infant MC remains highly cost-effective across a reasonable range of variation in the base case scenario. Adolescent MC is highly cost-effective for the base case scenario but this high cost-effectiveness is not robust to small changes in the input variables. Adult MC is neither cost-saving nor highly cost-effective when considering only the direct benefit for the circumcised man.

Conclusions

The study suggests that Rwanda should be simultaneously scaling up circumcision across a broad range of age groups, with high priority to the very young. Infant MC can be integrated into existing health services (i.e., neonatal visits and vaccination sessions) and over time has better potential than adolescent and adult circumcision to achieve the very high coverage of the population required for maximal reduction of HIV incidence. In the presence of infant MC, adolescent and adult MC would evolve into a “catch-up” campaign that would be needed at the start of the program but would eventually become superfluous. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Cost-effectiveness of Antivenoms for Snakebite Envenoming in Nigeria

Background

Snakebite envenoming is a major public health problem throughout the rural tropics. Antivenom is effective in reducing mortality and remains the mainstay of therapy. This study aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of using effective antivenoms for Snakebite envenoming in Nigeria.

Methodology

Economic analysis was conducted from a public healthcare system perspective. Estimates of model inputs were obtained from the literature. Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) were quantified as deaths and Disability-Adjusted-Life-Years (DALY) averted from antivenom therapy. A decision analytic model was developed and analyzed with the following model base-case parameter estimates: type of snakes causing bites, antivenom effectiveness to prevent death, untreated mortality, risk of Early Adverse Reactions (EAR), mortality risk from EAR, mean age at bite and remaining life expectancy, and disability risk (amputation). End-user costs applied included: costs of diagnosing and monitoring envenoming, antivenom drug cost, supportive care, shipping/freezing antivenom, transportation to-and-from hospital and feeding costs while on admission, management of antivenom EAR and free alternative snakebite care for ineffective antivenom.

Principal Findings

We calculated a cost/death averted of ($2330.16) and cost/DALY averted of $99.61 discounted and $56.88 undiscounted. Varying antivenom effectiveness through the 95% confidence interval from 55% to 86% yield a cost/DALY averted of $137.02 to $86.61 respectively. Similarly, varying the prevalence of envenoming caused by carpet viper from 0% to 96% yield a cost/DALY averted of $254.18 to $78.25 respectively. More effective antivenoms and carpet viper envenoming rather than non-carpet viper envenoming were associated with lower cost/DALY averted.

Conclusions/Significance

Treatment of snakebite envenoming in Nigeria is cost-effective with a cost/death averted of $2330.16 and cost/DALY averted of $99.61 discounted, lower than the country''s gross domestic product per capita of $1555 (2013). Expanding access to effective antivenoms to larger segments of the Nigerian population should be a considered a priority.     

Potential cost-effectiveness of universal access to modern contraceptives in Uganda

Background

Over two thirds of women who need contraception in Uganda lack access to modern effective methods. This study was conducted to estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of achieving universal access to modern contraceptives in Uganda by implementing a hypothetical new contraceptive program (NCP) from both societal and governmental (Ministry of Health (MoH)) perspectives.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A Markov model was developed to compare the NCP to the status quo or current contraceptive program (CCP). The model followed a hypothetical cohort of 15-year old girls over a lifetime horizon. Data were obtained from the Uganda National Demographic and Health Survey and from published and unpublished sources. Costs, life expectancy, disability-adjusted life expectancy, pregnancies, fertility and incremental cost-effectiveness measured as cost per life-year (LY) gained, cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, cost per pregnancy averted and cost per unit of fertility reduction were calculated. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of results. Mean discounted life expectancy and disability-adjusted life expectancy (DALE) were higher under the NCP vs. CCP (28.74 vs. 28.65 years and 27.38 vs. 27.01 respectively). Mean pregnancies and live births per woman were lower under the NCP (9.51 vs. 7.90 and 6.92 vs. 5.79 respectively). Mean lifetime societal costs per woman were lower for the NCP from the societal perspective ($1,949 vs. $1,987) and the MoH perspective ($636 vs. $685). In the incremental analysis, the NCP dominated the CCP, i.e. it was both less costly and more effective. The results were robust to univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

Conclusion/Significance

Universal access to modern contraceptives in Uganda appears to be highly cost-effective. Increasing contraceptive coverage should be considered among Uganda''s public health priorities.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Combined Sexual and Injection Risk Reduction Interventions among Female Sex Workers Who Inject Drugs in Two Very Distinct Mexican Border Cities.

Background

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of combined single session brief behavioral intervention, either didactic or interactive (Mujer Mas Segura, MMS) to promote safer-sex and safer-injection practices among female sex workers who inject drugs (FSW-IDUs) in Tijuana (TJ) and Ciudad-Juarez (CJ) Mexico. Data for this analysis was obtained from a factorial RCT in 2008–2010 coinciding with expansion of needle exchange programs (NEP) in TJ, but not in CJ.

Methods

A Markov model was developed to estimate the incremental cost per quality adjusted life year gained (QALY) over a lifetime time frame among a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 FSW-IDUs comparing a less intensive didactic vs. a more intensive interactive format of the MMS, separately for safer sex and safer injection combined behavioral interventions. The costs for antiretroviral therapy was not included in the model. We applied a societal perspective, a discount rate of 3% per year and currency adjusted to US$2014. A multivariate sensitivity analysis was performed. The combined and individual components of the MMS interactive behavioral intervention were compared with the didactic formats by calculating the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), defined as incremental unit of cost per additional health benefit (e.g., HIV/STI cases averted, QALYs) compared to the next least costly strategy. Following guidelines from the World Health Organization, a combined strategy was considered highly cost-effective if the incremental cost per QALY gained fell below the gross domestic product per capita (GDP) in Mexico (equivalent to US$10,300).

Findings

For CJ, the mixed intervention approach of interactive safer sex/didactic safer injection had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$4,360 ($310–$7,200) per QALY gained compared with a dually didactic strategy. Using the dually interactive strategy had an ICER of US$5,874 ($310–$7,200) compared with the mixed approach. For TJ, the combination of interactive safer sex/didactic safer injection had an ICER of US$5,921 ($104–$9,500) per QALY compared with dually didactic. Strategies using the interactive safe injection intervention were dominated due to lack of efficacy advantage. The multivariate sensitivity analysis showed a 95% certainty that in both CJ and TJ the ICER for the mixed approach (interactive safer sex didactic safer injection intervention) was less than the GDP per capita for Mexico. The dual interactive approach met this threshold consistently in CJ, but not in TJ.

Interpretation

In the absence of an expanded NEP in CJ, the combined-interactive formats of the MMS behavioral intervention is highly cost-effective. In contrast, in TJ where NEP expansion suggests that improved access to sterile syringes significantly reduced injection-related risks, the interactive safer-sex combined didactic safer-injection was highly cost-effective compared with the combined didactic versions of the safer-sex and safer-injection formats of the MMS, with no added benefit from the interactive safer-injection component.     

A Multifaceted Intervention to Improve the Quality of Care of Children in District Hospitals in Kenya: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Background

To improve care for children in district hospitals in Kenya, a multifaceted approach employing guidelines, training, supervision, feedback, and facilitation was developed, for brevity called the Emergency Triage and Treatment Plus (ETAT+) strategy. We assessed the cost effectiveness of the ETAT+ strategy, in Kenyan hospitals. Further, we estimate the costs of scaling up the intervention to Kenya nationally and potential cost effectiveness at scale.

Methods and Findings

Our cost-effectiveness analysis from the provider''s perspective used data from a previously reported cluster randomized trial comparing the full ETAT+ strategy (n = 4 hospitals) with a partial intervention (n = 4 hospitals). Effectiveness was measured using 14 process measures that capture improvements in quality of care; their average was used as a summary measure of quality. Economic costs of the development and implementation of the intervention were determined (2009 US$). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were defined as the incremental cost per percentage improvement in (average) quality of care. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess uncertainty. The cost per child admission was US$50.74 (95% CI 49.26–67.06) in intervention hospitals compared to US$31.1 (95% CI 30.67–47.18) in control hospitals. Each percentage improvement in average quality of care cost an additional US$0.79 (95% CI 0.19–2.31) per admitted child. The estimated annual cost of nationally scaling up the full intervention was US$3.6 million, approximately 0.6% of the annual child health budget in Kenya. A “what-if” analysis assuming conservative reductions in mortality suggests the incremental cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted by scaling up would vary between US$39.8 and US$398.3.

Conclusion

Improving quality of care at scale nationally with the full ETAT+ strategy may be affordable for low income countries such as Kenya. Resultant plausible reductions in hospital mortality suggest the intervention could be cost-effective when compared to incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of other priority child health interventions. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing the SILCS Diaphragm in South Africa

Background

Though South Africa has high contraceptive use, unintended pregnancies are still widespread. The SILCS diaphragm could reduce the number of women with unmet need by introducing a discreet, woman-initiated, non-hormonal barrier method to the contraceptive method mix.

Methods

A decision model was built to estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness of the introduction of the SILCS diaphragm in Gauteng among women with unmet need for contraception in terms of unintended and mistimed pregnancies averted, assuming that the available contraceptives on the market were not a satisfying option for those women. Full costs were estimated both from a provider’s and user’s perspective, which also accounts for women’s travel and opportunity cost of time, assuming a 5% uptake among women with unmet contraceptive need. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is computed at five and 10 years after introduction to allow for a distribution of fixed costs over time. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to incorporate decision uncertainty.

Results

The introduction of the SILCS diaphragm in Gauteng could prevent an estimated 8,365 unintended pregnancies and 2,117 abortions over five years, at an annual estimated cost of US$55 per woman. This comes to a cost per pregnancy averted of US$153 and US$171 from a user’s and provider’s perspectives, respectively, with slightly lower unit costs at 10 years. Major cost drivers will be the price of the SILCS diaphragm and the contraceptive gel, given their large contribution to total costs (around 60%).

Conclusions

The introduction of the SILCS diaphragm in the public sector is likely to provide protection for some women for whom current contraceptive technologies are not an option. However to realize its potential, targeting will be needed to reach women with unmet need and those with likely high adherence. Further analyses are needed among potential users to optimize the introduction strategy.