Comparative Efficacy and Safety of Different Antiplatelet Agents for Prevention of Major Cardiovascular Events and Leg Amputations in Patients with Peripheral Arterial Disease: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

There is a lack of consensus regarding which type of antiplatelet agent should be used in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and little is known on the advantages and disadvantages of dual antiplatelet therapy. We conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis of available randomized controlled trials (RCT) comparing different antiplatelet drugs (Aspirin, Ticlopidine, Clopidogrel, Ticagrelor, Cilostazol, Picotamide and Vorapaxar as monotherapies or in combination with aspirin) in PAD patients (PROSPERO public database; CRD42014010299).We collated evidence from previous relevant meta-analyses and searched online databases. Primary efficacy endpoints were: (1) the composite rate of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; including vascular deaths, non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke), and (2) the rate of major leg amputations. The primary safety endpoint was the rate of severe bleeding events. Bayesian models were employed for multiple treatment comparisons and risk-stratified hierarchies of comparative efficacy were produced to aid medical decision making. Number-Needed-to-Treat (NNT) and Number-Needed-to-Harm (NNH) are reported in case of significant results. We analyzed 49 RCTs comprising 34,518 patients with 88,358 person-years of follow-up with placebo as reference treatment. Aspirin, Cilostazol, Vorapaxar and Picotamide were ineffective in reducing MACE. A significant MACE reduction was noted with Ticagrelor plus aspirin (RR: 0.67; 95%CrI: 0.46–0.96, NNT = 66), Clopidogrel (RR: 0.72; 95%CrI: 0.58–0.91, NNT = 80), Ticlopidine (RR: 0.75; 95%CrI: 0.58–0.96, NNT = 87), and Clopidogrel plus aspirin (RR: 0.78; 95%CrI: 0.61–0.99, NNT = 98). Dual antiplatelet therapy with Clopidogrel plus aspirin significantly reduced major amputations following leg revascularization (RR: 0.68; 95%CrI: 0.46–0.99 compared to aspirin, NNT = 94). The risk of severe bleeding was significantly higher with Ticlopidine (RR: 5.03; 95%CrI: 1.23–39.6, NNH = 25), Vorapaxar (RR: 1.80; 95%CrI: 1.22–2.69, NNH = 130), and Clopidogrel plus aspirin (RR: 1.48; 95%CrI: 1.05–2.10, NNH = 215). Clopidogrel monotherapy showed the most favourable benefit-harm profile (79% cumulative rank probability best and 77% cumulative rank probability safest). In conclusion, Clopidogrel should be the indicated antiplatelet agent in PAD patients. Dual antiplatelet therapy with aspirin and Clopidogrel can reduce the rate of major leg amputations following revascularization, but carries a slightly higher risk of severe bleeding.     

Estimated impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumonia mortality in South Africa, 1999 through 2016: An ecological modelling study

BackgroundData on the national-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction on mortality are lacking from Africa. PCV was introduced in South Africa in 2009. We estimated the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in South Africa, while controlling for changes in mortality due to other interventions.Methods and findingsWe used national death registration data in South Africa from 1999 to 2016 to assess the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in all ages, with the exclusion of infants aged <1 month. We created a composite (synthetic) control using Bayesian variable selection of nondiarrheal, nonpneumonia, and nonpneumococcal deaths to estimate the number of expected all-cause pneumonia deaths in the absence of PCV introduction post 2009. We compared all-cause pneumonia deaths from the death registry to the expected deaths in 2012 to 2016. We also estimated the number of prevented deaths during 2009 to 2016. Of the 9,324,638 deaths reported in South Africa from 1999 to 2016, 12·6% were pneumonia-related.Compared to number of deaths expected, we estimated a 33% (95% credible interval (CrI) 26% to 43%), 23% (95%CrI 17% to 29%), 25% (95%CrI 19% to 32%), and 23% (95%CrI 11% to 32%) reduction in pneumonia mortality in children aged 1 to 11 months, 1 to 4 years, 5 to 7 years, and 8 to 18 years in 2012 to 2016, respectively. In total, an estimated 18,422 (95%CrI 12,388 to 26,978) pneumonia-related deaths were prevented from 2009 to 2016 in children aged <19 years. No declines were estimated observed among adults following PCV introduction. This study was mainly limited by coding errors in original data that could have led to a lower impact estimate, and unmeasured factors could also have confounded estimates.ConclusionsThis study found that the introduction of PCV was associated with substantial reduction in all-cause pneumonia deaths in children aged 1 month to <19 years. The model predicted an effect of PCV in age groups who were eligible for vaccination (1 months to 4 years), and an indirect effect in those too old (8 to 18 years) to be vaccinated. These findings support sustaining pneumococcal vaccination to reduce pneumonia-related mortality in children.

Jackie Kleynhans and colleagues investigate whether introduction of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine may have reduced all-cause pneumonia mortality in South Africa.     

Using Seroprevalence and Immunisation Coverage Data to Estimate the Global Burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome, 1996-2010: A Systematic Review

Background

The burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) is typically underestimated in routine surveillance. Updated estimates are needed following the recent WHO position paper on rubella and recent GAVI initiatives, funding rubella vaccination in eligible countries. Previous estimates considered the year 1996 and only 78 (developing) countries.

Methods

We reviewed the literature to identify rubella seroprevalence studies conducted before countries introduced rubella-containing vaccination (RCV). These data and the estimated vaccination coverage in the routine schedule and mass campaigns were incorporated in mathematical models to estimate the CRS incidence in 1996 and 2000–2010 for each country, region and globally.

Results

The estimated CRS decreased in the three regions (Americas, Europe and Eastern Mediterranean) which had introduced widespread RCV by 2010, reaching <2 per 100,000 live births (the Americas and Europe) and 25 (95% CI 4–61) per 100,000 live births (the Eastern Mediterranean). The estimated incidence in 2010 ranged from 90 (95% CI: 46–195) in the Western Pacific, excluding China, to 116 (95% CI: 56–235) and 121 (95% CI: 31–238) per 100,000 live births in Africa and SE Asia respectively. Highest numbers of cases were predicted in Africa (39,000, 95% CI: 18,000–80,000) and SE Asia (49,000, 95% CI: 11,000–97,000). In 2010, 105,000 (95% CI: 54,000–158,000) CRS cases were estimated globally, compared to 119,000 (95% CI: 72,000–169,000) in 1996.

Conclusions

Whilst falling dramatically in the Americas, Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean after vaccination, the estimated CRS incidence remains high elsewhere. Well-conducted seroprevalence studies can help to improve the reliability of these estimates and monitor the impact of rubella vaccination.     

Knowledge of and Attitudes to Influenza Vaccination in Healthy Primary Healthcare Workers in Spain, 2011-2012

Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for healthcare workers, but many do not follow the recommendation. The objective of this study was to investigate the factors associated with seasonal influenza vaccination in the 2011–2012 season. We carried out an anonymous web survey of Spanish primary healthcare workers in 2012. Information on vaccination, and knowledge and attitudes about the influenza vaccine was collected. Workers with medical conditions that contraindicated vaccination and those with high risk conditions were excluded. Multivariate analysis was performed using unconditional logistic regression. We included 1,749 workers. The overall vaccination coverage was 50.7% and was higher in workers aged ≥ 55 years (55.7%), males (57.4%) and paediatricians (63.1%). Factors associated with vaccination were concern about infection at work (aOR 4.93; 95% CI 3.72–6.53), considering that vaccination of heathcare workers is important (aOR 2.62; 95%CI 1.83–3.75) and that vaccination is effective in preventing influenza and its complications (aOR 2.40; 95% CI 1.56–3.67). No association was found between vaccination and knowledge of influenza or the vaccine characteristics. Educational programs should aim to remove the misconceptions and attitudes that limit compliance with recommendations about influenza vaccination in primary healthcare workers rather than only increasing knowledge about influenza and the characteristics of the vaccine.     

Acute Cardiovascular Events after Herpes Zoster: A Self-Controlled Case Series Analysis in Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Older Residents of the United States

Background

Herpes zoster is common and can have serious consequences. Additionally, emerging data suggest an increased risk of acute cardiovascular events following herpes zoster. However, to our knowledge, existing association studies compare outcomes between individuals and are therefore vulnerable to between-person confounding. In this study, we used a within-person study design to quantify any short-term increased risk of acute cardiovascular events (stroke and myocardial infarction [MI]) after zoster and to assess whether zoster vaccination modifies this association.

Methods and Findings

The self-controlled case series method was used to estimate rates of stroke and acute MI in defined periods after herpes zoster compared to other time periods, within individuals. Participants were fully eligible Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 y with a herpes zoster diagnosis and either an ischemic stroke (n = 42,954) or MI (n = 24,237) between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2011. Age-adjusted incidence ratios (IRs) for stroke and MI during predefined periods up to 12 mo after zoster relative to unexposed time periods were calculated using conditional Poisson regression. We observed a marked increase in the rate of acute cardiovascular events in the first week after zoster diagnosis: a 2.4-fold increased ischemic stroke rate (IR 2.37, 95% CI 2.17–2.59) and a 1.7-fold increased MI rate (IR 1.68, 95% CI 1.47–1.92), followed by a gradual resolution over 6 mo. Zoster vaccination did not appear to modify the association with MI (interaction p-value = 0.44). We also found no evidence for a difference in the IR for ischemic stroke between vaccinated (IR 1.14, 95% CI 0.75–1.74) and unvaccinated (IR 1.78, 95% CI 1.68–1.88) individuals during the first 4 wk after zoster diagnosis (interaction p-value = 0.28). The relatively few vaccinated individuals limited the study’s power to assess the role of vaccination.

Conclusions

Stroke and MI rates are transiently increased after exposure to herpes zoster. We found no evidence for a role of zoster vaccination in these associations. These findings enhance our understanding of the temporality and magnitude of the association between zoster and acute cardiovascular events.     

Helminth Infection and Eosinophilia and the Risk of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in 1- to 6-Year-Old Children in a Malaria Endemic Area

Background

Helminth infection is common in malaria endemic areas, and an interaction between the two would be of considerable public health importance. Animal models suggest that helminth infections may increase susceptibility to malaria, but epidemiological data has been limited and contradictory.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a vaccine trial, we studied 387 one- to six-year-old children for the effect of helminth infections on febrile Plasmodium falciparum malaria episodes. Gastrointestinal helminth infection and eosinophilia were prevalent (25% and 50% respectively), but did not influence susceptibility to malaria. Hazard ratios were 1 for gastrointestinal helminth infection (95% CI 0.6–1.6) and 0.85 and 0.85 for mild and marked eosinophilia, respectively (95% CI 0.56–1.76 and 0.69–1.96). Incident rate ratios for multiple episodes were 0.83 for gastro-intestinal helminth infection (95% CI 0.5–1.33) and 0.86 and 0.98 for mild and marked eosinophilia (95% CI 0.5–1.4 and 0.6–1.5).

Conclusions/Significance

There was no evidence that infection with gastrointestinal helminths or urinary schistosomiasis increased susceptibility to Plasmodium falciparum malaria in this study. Larger studies including populations with a greater prevalence of helminth infection should be undertaken.     

Association between Regulated upon Activation,Normal T Cells Expressed and Secreted (RANTES) -28C/G Polymorphism and Susceptibility to HIV-1 Infection: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Many studies have investigated the distributions of RANTES genotypes between HIV-1 infected patients and uninfected individuals. However, no definite results have been put forward about whether the RANTES −28C/G polymorphism can affect HIV-1 susceptibility.

Methods

We performed a meta-analysis of 12 studies including 7473 subjects for whom the RANTES −28C/G polymorphism was genotyped. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were employed to assess the association of the polymorphism with HIV-1 susceptibility. By dividing the controls into healthy controls and HIV-1 exposed but seronegative (HESN) controls, we explored the both allelic and dominant genetic models.

Results

By using the healthy controls, we found a marginally significant association between the −28C/G polymorphism and susceptibility to HIV-1 infection in the allelic model (OR = 0.82, 95%CI = 0.70–0.97). But sensitivity analysis suggested that the association was driven by one study. We further performed stratified analysis according to ethnicity. The −28G allele decreased susceptibility to HIV-1 infection in the allelic model among Asians (OR = 0.79, 95%CI = 0.66–0.94). By using the HESN controls, no association between the polymorphism −28C/G and the susceptibility to HIV-1 infection was revealed in either the allelic model (OR = 0.84, 95%CI = 0.60–1.17) or the dominant model (OR = 0.77, 95%CI = 0.54–1.10).

Conclusions

Our findings suggested that the RANTES −28G allele might play a role in resistance to HIV-1 infection among Asians. Additional well-designed studies were required for the validation of this association.     

BCG Vaccination Reduces Risk of Tuberculosis Infection in Vaccinated Badgers and Unvaccinated Badger Cubs

Wildlife is a global source of endemic and emerging infectious diseases. The control of tuberculosis (TB) in cattle in Britain and Ireland is hindered by persistent infection in wild badgers (Meles meles). Vaccination with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) has been shown to reduce the severity and progression of experimentally induced TB in captive badgers. Analysis of data from a four-year clinical field study, conducted at the social group level, suggested a similar, direct protective effect of BCG in a wild badger population. Here we present new evidence from the same study identifying both a direct beneficial effect of vaccination in individual badgers and an indirect protective effect in unvaccinated cubs. We show that intramuscular injection of BCG reduced by 76% (Odds ratio = 0.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11–0.52) the risk of free-living vaccinated individuals testing positive to a diagnostic test combination to detect progressive infection. A more sensitive panel of tests for the detection of infection per se identified a reduction of 54% (Odds ratio = 0.46, 95% CI 0.26–0.88) in the risk of a positive result following vaccination. In addition, we show the risk of unvaccinated badger cubs, but not adults, testing positive to an even more sensitive panel of diagnostic tests decreased significantly as the proportion of vaccinated individuals in their social group increased (Odds ratio = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01–0.76; P = 0.03). When more than a third of their social group had been vaccinated, the risk to unvaccinated cubs was reduced by 79% (Odds ratio = 0.21, 95% CI 0.05–0.81; P = 0.02).     

The Impact of Hepatitis B Vaccination Status on the Risk of Diabetes,Implicating Diabetes Risk Reduction by Successful Vaccination

Background

The liver plays a key role in fuel metabolism. It is well established that liver disease is associated with an increased risk for diabetes mellitus. Hepatitis C virus infection has been known to increase the risk of diabetes. However, much less is known about the role of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in diabetes. We examined the association of diabetes based on the vaccination status for HBV.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, we included adult subjects (≥20 y/o) with HBV serology available from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005–2010. Diabetes was defined as established diabetes or fasting plasma glucose concentration ≥7.0 mmol/L, 2-hour plasma glucose concentration ≥11.1 mmol/L, or HbA1c ≥ 47.5 mmol/mol (6.5%). Vaccination was based on the reported history and immunization was determined by HBV serology. The odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated with consideration of the following covariates: age, gender, BMI, ethnic/racial group, current smoker, current alcohol consumption, family history of diabetes, poverty index, and education.

Results

This study included 15,316 subjects. Among them, 2,320 subjects was immunized based the HBV serology. Among 4,063 subjects who received HBV vaccination, successful vaccination was only noted in 39% of subjects. The HBV vaccination was not associated with diabetes (OR: 1.08, 95%CI: 0.96–1.23). Serology evidence of HBV immunization was associated with a reduced OR of diabetes (0.75, 95%CI: 0.62–0.90). Successful HBV vaccination was also associated with a reduced OR of diabetes (0.67, 95%CI: 0.52–0.84).

Conclusions

Although our study shows the association of HBV vaccination with the reduced odds of diabetes by 33%, a prospective study is warranted to confirm and examine the impact of HBV vaccination in prevention of diabetes.     

Predicting future community-level ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection prevalence using serological,clinical, molecular,and geospatial data

Trachoma is an infectious disease characterized by repeated exposures to Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) that may ultimately lead to blindness. Efficient identification of communities with high infection burden could help target more intensive control efforts. We hypothesized that IgG seroprevalence in combination with geospatial layers, machine learning, and model-based geostatistics would be able to accurately predict future community-level ocular Ct infections detected by PCR. We used measurements from 40 communities in the hyperendemic Amhara region of Ethiopia to assess this hypothesis. Median Ct infection prevalence among children 0–5 years old increased from 6% at enrollment, in the context of recent mass drug administration (MDA), to 29% by month 36, following three years without MDA. At baseline, correlation between seroprevalence and Ct infection was stronger among children 0–5 years old (ρ = 0.77) than children 6–9 years old (ρ = 0.48), and stronger than the correlation between active trachoma and Ct infection (0-5y ρ = 0.56; 6-9y ρ = 0.40). Seroprevalence was the strongest concurrent predictor of infection prevalence at month 36 among children 0–5 years old (cross-validated R² = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58–0.85), though predictive performance declined substantially with increasing temporal lag between predictor and outcome measurements. Geospatial variables, a spatial Gaussian process, and stacked ensemble machine learning did not meaningfully improve predictions. Serological markers among children 0–5 years old may be an objective tool for identifying communities with high levels of ocular Ct infections, but accurate, future prediction in the context of changing transmission remains an open challenge.     

Guillain-Barré Syndrome and Adjuvanted Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 Vaccines: A Multinational Self-Controlled Case Series in Europe

Background

The risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) following the United States'' 1976 swine flu vaccination campaign in the USA led to enhanced active surveillance during the pandemic influenza (A(H1N1)pdm09) immunization campaign. This study aimed to estimate the risk of GBS following influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination.

Methods

A self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis was performed in Denmark, Finland, France, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Information was collected according to a common protocol and standardised procedures. Cases classified at levels 1–4a of the Brighton Collaboration case definition were included. The risk window was 42 days starting the day after vaccination. Conditional Poisson regression and pooled random effects models estimated adjusted relative incidences (RI). Pseudo likelihood and vaccinated-only methods addressed the potential contraindication for vaccination following GBS.

Results

Three hundred and three (303) GBS and Miller Fisher syndrome cases were included. Ninety-nine (99) were exposed to A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination, which was most frequently adjuvanted (Pandemrix and Focetria). The unadjusted pooled RI for A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination and GBS was 3.5 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.2–5.5), based on all countries. This lowered to 2.0 (95% CI: 1.2–3.1) after adjustment for calendartime and to 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1–3.2) when we accounted for contra-indications. In a subset (Netherlands, Norway, and United Kingdom) we further adjusted for other confounders and there the RI decreased from 1.7 (adjusted for calendar month) to 1.4 (95% CI: 0.7–2.8), which is the main finding.

Conclusion

This study illustrates the potential of conducting European collaborative vaccine safety studies. The main, fully adjusted analysis, showed that the RI of GBS was not significantly elevated after influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination (RI = 1.4 (95% CI: 0.7–2.8). Based on the upper limits of the pooled estimate we can rule out with 95% certainty that the number of excess GBS cases after influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination would be more than 3 per million vaccinated.     

Cluster Survey Evaluation of a Measles Vaccination Campaign in Jharkhand,India, 2012

IntroductionIndia was the last country in the world to implement a two-dose strategy for measles-containing vaccine (MCV) in 2010. As part of measles second-dose introduction, phased measles vaccination campaigns were conducted during 2010–2013, targeting 131 million children 9 months to <10 years of age. We performed a post-campaign coverage survey to estimate measles vaccination coverage in Jharkhand state.MethodsA multi-stage cluster survey was conducted 2 months after the phase 2 measles campaign occurred in 19 of 24 districts of Jharkhand during November 2011–March 2012. Vaccination status of children 9 months to <10 years of age was documented based on vaccination card or mother’s recall. Coverage estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for 1,018 children were calculated using survey methods.ResultsIn the Jharkhand phase 2 campaign, MCV coverage among children aged 9 months to <10 years was 61.0% (95% CI: 54.4–67.7%). Significant differences in coverage were observed between rural (65.0%; 95% CI: 56.8–73.2%) and urban areas (45.6%; 95% CI: 37.3–53.9%). Campaign awareness among mothers was low (51.5%), and the most commonly reported reason for non-vaccination was being unaware of the campaign (69.4%). At the end of the campaign, 53.7% (95% CI: 46.5–60.9%) of children 12 months to <10 years of age received ≥2 MCV doses, while a large proportion of children remained under-vaccinated (34.0%, 95% CI: 28.0–40.0%) or unvaccinated (12.3%, 95% CI: 9.3–16.2%).ConclusionsImplementation of the national measles campaign was a significant achievement towards measles elimination in India. In Jharkhand, campaign performance was below the target coverage of ≥90% set by the Government of India, and challenges in disseminating campaign messages were identified. Efforts towards increasing two-dose MCV coverage are needed to achieve the recently adopted measles elimination goal in India and the South-East Asia region.     

Guillain-Barré Syndrome,Influenza Vaccination,and Antecedent Respiratory and Gastrointestinal Infections: A Case-Centered Analysis in the Vaccine Safety Datalink, 2009–2011

Background

Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) can be triggered by gastrointestinal or respiratory infections, including influenza. During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the United States, monovalent inactivated influenza vaccine (MIV) availability coincided with high rates of wildtype influenza infections. Several prior studies suggested an elevated GBS risk following MIV, but adjustment for antecedent infection was limited.

Methods

We identified patients enrolled in health plans participating in the Vaccine Safety Datalink and diagnosed with GBS from July 2009 through June 2011. Medical records of GBS cases with 2009–10 MIV, 2010–11 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), and/or a medically-attended respiratory or gastrointestinal infection in the 1 through 141 days prior to GBS diagnosis were reviewed and classified according to Brighton Collaboration criteria for diagnostic certainty. Using a case-centered design, logistic regression models adjusted for patient-level time-varying sources of confounding, including seasonal vaccinations and infections in GBS cases and population-level controls.

Results

Eighteen confirmed GBS cases received vaccination in the 6 weeks preceding onset, among 1.27 million 2009–10 MIV recipients and 2.80 million 2010–11 TIV recipients. Forty-four confirmed GBS cases had infection in the 6 weeks preceding onset, among 3.77 million patients diagnosed with medically-attended infection. The observed-versus-expected odds that 2009–10 MIV/2010–11 TIV was received in the 6 weeks preceding GBS onset was odds ratio = 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.59–3.99; risk difference = 0.93 per million doses, 95% CI, −0.71–5.16. The association between GBS and medically-attended infection was: odds ratio = 7.73, 95% CI, 3.60–16.61; risk difference = 11.62 per million infected patients, 95% CI, 4.49–26.94. These findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using alternative infection definitions and risk intervals for prior vaccination shorter than 6 weeks.

Conclusions

After adjusting for antecedent infections, we found no evidence for an elevated GBS risk following 2009–10 MIV/2010–11 TIV influenza vaccines. However, the association between GBS and antecedent infection was strongly elevated.     

Acceptability of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) among Male Sexually Transmitted Diseases Patients (MSTDP) in China

Voluntary Medical Male circumcision (VMMC) is an evidence-based, yet under-utilized biomedical HIV intervention in China. No study has investigated acceptability of VMMC among male sexually transmitted diseases patients (MSTDP) who are at high risk of HIV transmission. A cross-sectional survey interviewed 350 HIV negative heterosexual MSTDP in Shenzhen, China; 12.0% (n = 42) of them were circumcised at the time of survey. When the uncircumcised participants (n = 308) were informed that VMMC could reduce the risk of HIV infection via heterosexual intercourse by 50%, the prevalence of acceptability of VMMC in the next six months was 46.1%. Adjusted for significant background variables, significant factors of acceptability of VMMC included: 1) emotional variables: the Emotional Representation Subscale (adjusted odds ratios, AOR = 1.13, 95%CI: 1.06–1.18), 2) cognitive variables derived from Health Belief Model (HBM): perceived some chance of having sex with HIV positive women in the next 12 months (AOR = 2.48, 95%CI: 1.15–5.33) (perceived susceptibility), perceived severity of STD infection (AOR = 1.06, 95%CI: 1.02–1.10), perceived benefit of VMMC in risk reduction (AOR = 1.29, 95%CI: 1.16–1.42) and sexual performance (AOR = 1.45, 95%CI: 1.26–1.71), perceived barriers against taking up VMMC (AOR = 0.88, 95%CI: 0.81–0.95), and perceived cue to action (AOR = 1.41, 95%CI: 1.23–1.61) and self-efficacy (AOR = 1.38, 95%CI: 1.26–1.35) related to taking up VMMC. The association between perceived severity of STD infection and acceptability was fully mediated by emotional representation of STD infection. The relatively low prevalence of circumcision and high acceptability suggested that the situation was favorable for implementing VMMC as a means of HIV intervention among MSTDP in China. HBM is a potential suitable framework to guide the design of future VMMC promotion. Future implementation programs should be conducted in STD clinic settings, taking the important findings of this study into account.     

Effect of rAd5-Vector HIV-1 Preventive Vaccines on HIV-1 Acquisition: A Participant-Level Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials

Background

Three phase 2b, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized efficacy trials have tested recombinant Adenovirus serotype-5 (rAd5)-vector preventive HIV-1 vaccines: MRKAd5 HIV-1 gag/pol/nef in Step and Phambili, and DNA/rAd5 HIV-1 env/gag/pol in HVTN505. Due to efficacy futility observed at the first interim analysis in Step and HVTN505, participants of all three studies were unblinded to their vaccination assignments during the study but continued follow–up. Rigorous meta-analysis can provide crucial information to advise the future utility of rAd5-vector vaccines.

Methods

We included participant-level data from all three efficacy trials, and three Phase 1–2 trials evaluating the HVTN505 vaccine regimen. We predefined two co-primary analysis cohorts for assessing the vaccine effect on HIV-1 acquisition. The modified-intention-to-treat (MITT) cohort included all randomly assigned participants HIV-1 uninfected at study entry, who received at least the first vaccine/placebo, and the Ad5 cohort included MITT participants who received at least one dose of rAd5-HIV vaccine or rAd5-placebo. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of HIV-1 infection (vaccine vs. placebo) and evaluate HR variation across vaccine regimens, time since vaccination, and subgroups using interaction tests.

Findings

Results are similar for the MITT and Ad5 cohorts; we summarize MITT cohort results. Pooled across the efficacy trials, over all follow-up time 403 (n = 224 vaccine; n = 179 placebo) of 6266 MITT participants acquired HIV-1, with a non-significantly higher incidence in vaccine recipients (HR 1.21, 95% CI 0.99–1.48, P = 0.06). The HRs significantly differed by vaccine regimen (interaction P = 0.03; MRKAd5 HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.11–1.78, P = 0.005 vs. DNA/rAd5 HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.61–1.26, P = 0.48). Results were similar when including the Phase 1–2 trials. Exploratory analyses based on the efficacy trials supported that the MRKAd5 vaccine-increased risk was concentrated in Ad5-positive or uncircumcised men early in follow-up, and in Ad5-negative or circumcised men later. Overall, MRKAd5 vaccine-increased risk was evident across subgroups except in circumcised Ad5-negative men (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.58−1.63, P = 0.91); there was little evidence that the DNA/rAd5 vaccine, that was tested in this subgroup, increased risk (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.61–1.26, P = 0.48). When restricting the analysis of Step and Phambili to follow-up time before unblinding, 114 (n = 65 vaccine; n = 49 placebo) of 3770 MITT participants acquired HIV-1, with a non-significantly higher incidence in MRKAd5 vaccine recipients (HR 1.30, 95% CI 0.89–1.14, P = 0.18).

Interpretation and Significance

The data support increased risk of HIV-1 infection by MRKAd5 over all follow-up time, but do not support increased risk of HIV-1 infection by DNA/rAd5. This study provides a rationale for including monitoring plans enabling detection of increased susceptibility to infection in HIV-1 at-risk populations.     

Taking care of a diarrhea epidemic in an urban hospital in Bangladesh: Appraisal of putative causes,presentation, management,and deaths averted

BackgroundIn April 2018, a diarrhea epidemic broke out in Dhaka city and adjoining areas, which continued through May. The Dhaka Hospital of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), a dedicated diarrheal disease hospital, had a large upsurge in patient visits during the epidemic. An enhanced understanding of the epidemiology of this epidemic may help health-related professionals better prepare for such events in the future. This study examined the microbial etiology and non-pathogen factors associated with diarrhea during the epidemic. The study also evaluated the patients’ presentation and clinical course and estimated the potential mortality averted by treating patients during the epidemic.Methodology/Principal findingsData from the patients who were treated at Dhaka Hospital during the diarrhea epidemic between April 2 and May 12, 2018 and were enrolled into the Diarrheal Disease Surveillance System (DDSS) at icddr,b were compared with the DDSS-enrolled patients treated during the seasonally-matched periods in the flanking years using logistic regression. icddr,b Dhaka Hospital treated 29,212 diarrheal patients during the 2018 epidemic period (and 25,950 patients per comparison period on average). Vibrio cholerae was the most common pathogen isolated (7,946 patients; 27%) and associated with diarrhea during the epidemic (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1–2.0). The interaction of Vibrio cholerae with ETEC (AOR 2.7, 95% CI: 1.3–5.9) or Campylobacter (AOR 2.4, 95% CI: 1.1–5.1) was associated with further increased odds of diarrhea during the epidemic. In children under five years old, rotavirus was the most common pathogen (2,029 patients; 26%). Those who were adolescents (AOR 2.0, 95% CI: 1.3–3.1) and young adults (AOR 1.9, 95% CI: 1.4–2.5) compared to children younger than five years, resided within a 10 km radius of Dhaka Hospital (AOR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1–2.2) compared to those living outside 20 km, borrowed money or relied on aid to pay for the transport to the hospital (AOR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.2–2.0), used tap water (AOR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.4–2.4) for drinking compared to tubewell water, and disposed of the solid waste directly outside the house (AOR 4.0, 95% CI: 2.7–5.9) were more likely to present with diarrhea during the epidemic. During the epidemic, patients were more likely to present with severe dehydration (odds ratio [OR] 1.6, 95% CI: 1.3–2.0) and require inpatient admission (OR 2.5, 95% CI: 1.9–3.3), intravenous rehydration (OR 1.7, 95% CI: 1.4–2.1), and antibiotics (OR 2.2, 95% CI: 1.8–2.7). The in-hospital case fatality rate was low (13 patients; 0.04%), and the hospital averted between 12,523 and 17,265 deaths during the epidemic.Conclusions/SignificanceVibrio cholerae played the primary role in the 2018 diarrhea epidemic in Dhaka. Campylobacter, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, and rotavirus had a secondary role. Adolescents and adults, residents of the metropolitan area, and those who were relatively poor and lacked safe water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) practices comprised the most vulnerable groups. Despite the increased disease severity during the epidemic, the case fatality rate was less than 0.1%. icddr,b Dhaka Hospital saved as many as 17,265 lives during the epidemic.     

Female Salix viminalis are more severely infected by Melampsora spp. but neither sex experiences associational effects

Associational effects of plant genotype or species on plant biotic interactions are common, not least for disease spread, but associational effects of plant sex on interactions have largely been ignored. Sex in dioecious plants can affect biotic interactions with herbivores and pollinators; however, its effects on plant–pathogen interactions are understudied and associational effects are unknown. In a replicated field experiment, we assessed Melampsora spp. leaf rust infection in monosexual and mixed sex plots of dioecious Salix viminalis L. to determine whether plant sex has either direct or associational effects on infection severity. We found no differences in Melampsora spp. infection severity among sexual monocultures and mixtures in our field experiment. However, female plants were overall more severely infected. In addition, we surveyed previous studies of infection in S. viminalis clones and reevaluated the studies after we assigned sex to the clones. We found that females were generally more severely infected, as in our field study. Similarly, in a survey of studies on sex‐biased infection in dioecious plants, we found more female‐biased infections in plant–pathogen pairs. We conclude that there was no evidence for associational plant sex effects of neighboring conspecifics for either females or males on infection severity. Instead, plant sex effects on infection act at an individual plant level. Our findings also suggest that female plants may in general be more severely affected by fungal pathogens than males.     

The Severity of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza in the United States,from April to July 2009: A Bayesian Analysis

Background

Accurate measures of the severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (pH1N1) are needed to assess the likely impact of an anticipated resurgence in the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Severity has been difficult to measure because jurisdictions with large numbers of deaths and other severe outcomes have had too many cases to assess the total number with confidence. Also, detection of severe cases may be more likely, resulting in overestimation of the severity of an average case. We sought to estimate the probabilities that symptomatic infection would lead to hospitalization, ICU admission, and death by combining data from multiple sources.

Methods and Findings

We used complementary data from two US cities: Milwaukee attempted to identify cases of medically attended infection whether or not they required hospitalization, while New York City focused on the identification of hospitalizations, intensive care admission or mechanical ventilation (hereafter, ICU), and deaths. New York data were used to estimate numerators for ICU and death, and two sources of data—medically attended cases in Milwaukee or self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI) in New York—were used to estimate ratios of symptomatic cases to hospitalizations. Combining these data with estimates of the fraction detected for each level of severity, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic patients who died (symptomatic case-fatality ratio, sCFR), required ICU (sCIR), and required hospitalization (sCHR), overall and by age category. Evidence, prior information, and associated uncertainty were analyzed in a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. Using medically attended cases and estimates of the proportion of symptomatic cases medically attended, we estimated an sCFR of 0.048% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.026%–0.096%), sCIR of 0.239% (0.134%–0.458%), and sCHR of 1.44% (0.83%–2.64%). Using self-reported ILI, we obtained estimates approximately 7–9× lower. sCFR and sCIR appear to be highest in persons aged 18 y and older, and lowest in children aged 5–17 y. sCHR appears to be lowest in persons aged 5–17; our data were too sparse to allow us to determine the group in which it was the highest.

Conclusions

These estimates suggest that an autumn–winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 with comparable severity per case could lead to a number of deaths in the range from considerably below that associated with seasonal influenza to slightly higher, but with the greatest impact in children aged 0–4 and adults 18–64. These estimates of impact depend on assumptions about total incidence of infection and would be larger if incidence of symptomatic infection were higher or shifted toward adults, if viral virulence increased, or if suboptimal treatment resulted from stress on the health care system; numbers would decrease if the total proportion of the population symptomatically infected were lower than assumed. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Assessing Optimal Target Populations for Influenza Vaccination Programmes: An Evidence Synthesis and Modelling Study

Background

Influenza vaccine policies that maximise health benefit through efficient use of limited resources are needed. Generally, influenza vaccination programmes have targeted individuals 65 y and over and those at risk, according to World Health Organization recommendations. We developed methods to synthesise the multiplicity of surveillance datasets in order to evaluate how changing target populations in the seasonal vaccination programme would affect infection rate and mortality.

Methods and Findings

Using a contemporary evidence-synthesis approach, we use virological, clinical, epidemiological, and behavioural data to develop an age- and risk-stratified transmission model that reproduces the strain-specific behaviour of influenza over 14 seasons in England and Wales, having accounted for the vaccination uptake over this period. We estimate the reduction in infections and deaths achieved by the historical programme compared with no vaccination, and the reduction had different policies been in place over the period. We find that the current programme has averted 0.39 (95% credible interval 0.34–0.45) infections per dose of vaccine and 1.74 (1.16–3.02) deaths per 1,000 doses. Targeting transmitters by extending the current programme to 5–16-y-old children would increase the efficiency of the total programme, resulting in an overall reduction of 0.70 (0.52–0.81) infections per dose and 1.95 (1.28–3.39) deaths per 1,000 doses. In comparison, choosing the next group most at risk (50–64-y-olds) would prevent only 0.43 (0.35–0.52) infections per dose and 1.77 (1.15–3.14) deaths per 1,000 doses.

Conclusions

This study proposes a framework to integrate influenza surveillance data into transmission models. Application to data from England and Wales confirms the role of children as key infection spreaders. The most efficient use of vaccine to reduce overall influenza morbidity and mortality is thus to target children in addition to older adults. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary