The potential influence of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta on density and breeding of the white‐throated dipper Cinclus cinclus

Interactions between birds and fish are often overlooked in aquatic ecosystems. We studied the influence of Atlantic salmon and brown trout on the breeding population size and reproductive output of the white‐throated dipper in a Norwegian river. Acidic precipitation led to the extinction of salmon, but salmon recolonized after liming was initiated in 1991. We compared the dipper population size and reproductive output before (1978–1992) and after (1993–2014) salmon recolonization. Despite a rapid and substantial increase in juvenile salmon, the breeding dipper population size and reproductive output were not influenced by juvenile salmon, trout, or total salmonid density. This might be due to different feeding strategies in salmonids and dippers, where salmonids are mainly feeding on drift, while the dipper is a benthic feeder. The correlation between the size of the dipper population upstream and downstream of a salmonid migratory barrier was similar before and after recolonization, indicating that the downstream territories were not less attractive after the recolonization of salmon. Upstream dipper breeding success rates declined before the recolonization event and increased after, indicating improved water quality due to liming, and increasing invertebrate prey abundances and biodiversity. Surprisingly, upstream the migratory barrier, juvenile trout had a weak positive effect on the dipper population size, indicating that dippers may prey upon small trout. It is possible that wider downstream reaches might have higher abundances of alternative food, rending juvenile trout unimportant as prey. Abiotic factors such as winter temperatures and acidic precipitation with subsequent liming, potentially mediated by prey abundance, seem to play the most important role in the life history of the dipper.     

Fine‐scale habitat use during the non‐breeding season suggests that winter habitat does not limit breeding populations of a declining long‐distance Palearctic migrant

For migrant birds, which habitats are suitable during the non‐breeding season influences habitat availability, population resilience to habitat loss, and ultimately survival. Consequently, habitat preferences during winter and whether habitat segregation according to age and sex occurs directly influences migration ecology, survival and breeding success. We tested the fine‐scale habitat preferences of a declining Palearctic migrant, the whinchat Saxicola rubetra, on its wintering grounds in west Africa. We explored the influence of habitat at the territory‐scale and whether dominance‐based habitat occupancy occurs by describing the variation in habitat characteristics across wintering territories, the degree of habitat change within territories held throughout winter, and whether habitat characteristics influenced territory size and space‐use within territories or differed with age and sex. Habitat characteristics varied substantially across territories and birds maintained the same territories even though habitat changed significantly throughout winter. We found no evidence of dominance‐based habitat occupancy; instead, territories were smaller if they contained more perching shrubs or maize crops, and areas with more perching shrubs were used more often within territories, likely because perches are important for foraging and territory defence. Our findings suggest that whinchats have non‐specialised habitat requirements within their wintering habitat of open savannah and farmland, and respond to habitat variation by adjusting territory size and space‐use within their territories instead of competing with conspecifics. Whinchats show a tolerance for human‐modified habitats and results support previous findings that some crop types may provide high‐quality wintering habitat by increasing perch density and foraging opportunities. By having non‐specialised requirements within broad winter habitat types, migrants are likely to be flexible to changing wintering conditions in Africa, both within and across winters, so possibly engendering some resilience to the rapid anthropogenic habitat degradation occurring throughout their wintering range.     

Breeding of Tawny Owls Strix aluco in rural and urban habitats in southern Finland

Capsule The annual average breeding frequency, clutch size, offspring production and chick survival of Tawny Owls did not differ between rural and urban nesting territories.

Aims To determine whether the general intensity of human habitation in the territory affects breeding.

Methods Clutch size, offspring production, breeding frequency and prey abundance were determined from 210 rural and 60 urban nesting territories monitored between 1994 and 2006.

Results Fluctuations in the annual average clutch size did not differ between habitats. Clutch size and offspring production paralleled each other in rural habitats but not in urban ones. Annual average clutch size followed the regional spring abundance of small mammals in rural Tawny Owls but not in urban ones. The breeding frequency was higher after mild winters in rural environments but not in urban ones.

Conclusion Over an extended time period, rural and urban habitats were largely of equal quality. In urban environments, however, owls seem to be less affected by the pronounced regional abundance fluctuations of small mammals and weather conditions of the preceding winter that largely govern the breeding of owls elsewhere.     

Advances in laying date and increasing population size suggest positive responses to climate change in Common Eiders Somateria mollissima in Iceland

Models of climate change predict that its effects on animal populations will not always be negative, but most studies indicate negative associations between changes in climate and the phenology of animal migration and reproduction. For some populations, however, climate change may render particular environments more favourable, with positive effects on population growth. We used a 30-year population dataset on over 2000 Common Eiders Somateria mollissima at a colony in southwest Iceland to examine the response of this species to climate fluctuations. Eiders are strongly dependent on suitable climatic conditions for successful reproduction and survival. Temperatures in southwest Iceland, in both winter and summer, have generally increased over the past 30 years but have shown considerable fluctuation. We show that females laid earlier following mild winters and that year-to-year variation in the number of nests was related to the temperature during the breeding season 2 years previously. Milder summers could have positive effects on breeding success and offspring survival, producing an increase in nest numbers 2 years later when most Eiders recruit into the breeding population. In this part of their range, Eiders could benefit from a general warming of the climate.     

Tawny owl prey remains indicate differences in the dynamics of coastal and inland vole populations in southern Finland

Some studies suggest that mild winters decrease overwinter survival of small mammals or coincide with decreased cyclicity in vole numbers, whereas other studies suggest non-significant or positive relationships between mild winter conditions and vole population dynamics. We expect for the number of voles to be higher in the rich and low-lying habitats of the coastal areas than in the less fertile areas inland. We assume that this geographical difference in vole abundances is diminished by mild winters especially in low-lying habitats. We examine these relationships by generalized linear mixed models using prey remains of breeding tawny owls Strix aluco as a proxy for the abundance of voles. The higher number of small voles in the coastal area than in the inland area suggest that vole populations were denser in the coastal area. Vole populations of both areas were affected by winter weather conditions particularly in March, but these relationships differed between areas. The mild ends of winter with frequent fluctuations of the ambient temperature around the freezing point (“frost seesaw”) constrained significantly the coastal vole populations, while deep snow cover, in general after hard winters, was followed by significantly lowered number of voles only in the inland populations. Our results suggest that coastal vole populations are more vulnerable to mild winters than inland ones. We also show that tawny owl prey remains can be used in a meaningful way to study vole population dynamics.     

Winter climate affects subsequent breeding success of common eiders

The phenology of spring migration depends on the severity of the preceding winter and approaching spring. This severity can be quantified using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index; positive values indicate mild winters. Although milder winters are correlated with earlier migration in many birds in temperate regions, few studies have addressed how climate‐induced variation in spring arrival relates to breeding success. In northern Europe, the NAO‐index correlates with ice cover and timing of ice break‐up of the Baltic Sea. Ice cover plays an important role for breeding waterfowl, since the timing of ice break‐up constrains both spring arrival and onset of breeding. We studied the effects of the winter‐NAO‐index and timing of ice break‐up on spring migration, laying date, clutch size, female body condition at hatching and fledging success of a short‐distance migrant common eider (Somateria mollissima) population from SW Finland, the Baltic Sea, 1991–2004 (migration data 1979–2004). We also examined the correlation between the NAO‐index and the proportion of juvenile eiders in the Danish hunting bag, which reflects the breeding success on a larger spatial scale. The body condition of breeding females and proportion of juveniles in the hunting bag showed significant positive correlations with the NAO, whereas arrival dates showed positive correlations and clutch size and fledging success showed negative correlations with the timing of ice break‐up. The results suggest that climate, which also affects ice conditions, has an important effect on the fledging success of eiders. Outbreaks of duckling disease epidemics may be the primary mechanism underlying this effect. Eider females are in poorer condition after severe winters and cannot allocate as much resources to breeding, which may impair the immune defense of ducklings. Global climate warming is expected to increase the future breeding success of eiders in our study population.     

Ecological conditions during winter affect sexual selection and breeding in a migratory bird

Populations of migratory birds have undergone marked declines, although the causes and mechanisms remain unknown. Because environmental effects on population dynamics are mediated by the effects of ecological factors on individuals, understanding changes in individual phenotypes in response to ecological conditions is key to understanding population trends. We show that breeding individuals of a declining population of trans-Saharan migratory barn swallows, Hirundo rustica, were affected by environmental conditions, as estimated from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), reflecting primary production, in their winter quarters. The breeding dates of the same individuals in consecutive breeding seasons were advanced and clutch sizes were larger after winters with high NDVI in the winter quarters. Feather moult was also affected by winter conditions, with consequences for male sexual attractiveness. Length of tail ornament was positively correlated with NDVI during the previous winter, and males with large tail ornaments reproduced earlier and had larger clutches. The mean annual breeding date of the population was earlier and breeding success was increased after favourable winters, but this result was mainly determined by a single winter with very low NDVI. Thus, ecological conditions in Africa influence individual performance and productivity in a barn swallow population.     

Winter territoriality and its implications for the breeding ecology of White-throated Dippers Cinclus cinclus

Capsule: Pairs of White-throated Dippers Cinclus cinclus which defended winter territories bred earlier than non-territorial individuals, but there was no difference in reproductive success.

Aims: The effect of winter territoriality on breeding ecology has rarely been studied in resident birds. We carried out a preliminary investigation of whether winter territorial behaviour and territory size affect the timing of reproduction, breeding territory size and reproductive success in a riverine bird, the White-throated Dipper.

Methods: We monitored an individually marked population of White-throated Dippers in the UK. Wintering individuals were classified as either territorial or ‘floaters’ according to their patterns of occurrence and behaviour, and their nesting attempts were closely monitored in the subsequent months. Winter and breeding territory sizes were measured by gently ‘pushing’ birds along the river and recording the point at which they turned back.

Results: All birds defending winter territories did so in pairs, but some individuals changed partners before breeding. Territorial pairs that were together throughout the study laid eggs significantly earlier than pairs containing floaters and those comprising territorial birds that changed partners. However, there were no significant differences in clutch size, nestling mass or the number of chicks fledged. There was no relationship between winter territory length and lay date or any measure of reproductive success, although sample sizes were small. Winter territories were found to be significantly shorter than breeding territories.

Conclusion: Winter territoriality may be advantageous because breeding earlier increases the likelihood that pairs will raise a second brood, but further study is needed. Territories are shorter in winter as altitudinal migrants from upland streams increase population density on rivers, but this may also reflect seasonal changes in nutritional and energetic demands.     

Fluctuations of an introduced population of Svalbard reindeer: the effects of density dependence and climatic variation

The relative contribution of density-dependent and density-independent factors on variation in the population growth rate of an introduced population Svalbard reindeer was studied by time series analysis. No significant effects of either direct or delayed density-dependence were found. Annual variation in population growth rate was strongly negatively related to amount of precipitation during winter (i.e. high growth rates occurred when winters were dry). There was no significant relationship between the NAO-index and the population growth rate. However, there was an interaction between population density and the climatic variables, i.e. the effect of climate was stronger at high densities. These results support the view that population fluctuations of arctic ungulates are strongly influenced by stochastic variation in climate.     

Interspecific synchrony of seabird population growth rate and breeding success

Environmental variability can destabilize communities by causing correlated interspecific fluctuations that weaken the portfolio effect, yet evidence of such a mechanism is rare in natural systems. Here, we ask whether the population dynamics of similar sympatric species of a seabird breeding community are synchronized, and if these species have similar exceptional responses to environmental variation. We used a 24‐year time series of the breeding success and population growth rate of a marine top predator species group to assess the degree of synchrony between species demography. We then developed a novel method to examine the species group – all species combined – response to environmental variability, in particular, whether multiple species experience similar, pronounced fluctuations in their demography. Multiple species were positively correlated in breeding success and growth rate. Evidence of “exceptional” years was found, where the species group experienced pronounced fluctuations in their demography. The synchronous response of the species group was negatively correlated with winter sea surface temperature of the preceding year for both growth rate and breeding success. We present evidence for synchronous, exceptional responses of a species group that are driven by environmental variation. Such species covariation destabilizes communities by reducing the portfolio effect, and such exceptional responses may increase the risk of a state change in this community. Our understanding of the future responses to environmental change requires an increased focus on the short‐term fluctuations in demography that are driven by extreme environmental variability.     

Climate change and the demographic demise of a hoarding bird living on the edge

Population declines along the lower-latitude edge of a species' range may be diagnostic of climate change. We report evidence that climate change has contributed to deteriorating reproductive success in a rapidly declining population of the grey jay (Perisoreus canadensis) at the southern edge of its range. This non-migratory bird of boreal and subalpine forest lives on permanent territories, where it hoards enormous amounts of food for winter and then breeds very early, under still-wintry conditions. We hypothesized that warmer autumns have increased the perishability of hoards and compromised subsequent breeding attempts. Our analysis confirmed that warm autumns, especially when followed by cold late winters, have led to delayed breeding and reduced reproductive success. Our findings uniquely show that weather months before the breeding season impact the timing and success of breeding. Warm autumns apparently represent hostile conditions for this species, because it relies on cold storage. Our study population may be especially vulnerable, because it is situated at the southern edge of the range, where the potential for hoard rot is most pronounced. This population's demise may signal a climate-driven range contraction through local extinctions along the trailing edge.     

Survival of Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus in relation to winter climate, density and land-use

1. Global change may strongly affect population dynamics, but mechanisms remain elusive. Several Arctic goose species have increased considerably during the last decades. Climate, and land-use changes outside the breeding area have been invoked as causes but have not been tested. We analysed the relationships between conditions on wintering and migration staging areas, and survival in Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. Using mark-recapture data from 14 winters (1989-2002) we estimated survival rates and tested for time trends, and effects of climate, goose density and land-use. 2. Resighting rates differed for males and females, were higher for birds recorded during the previous winter and changed smoothly over time. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, varied over time with a nonsignificant negative trend, and were higher for the first interval after marking (0.88-0.97) than afterwards (0.74-0.93). Average survival estimates were 0.967 (SE 0.026) for the first and 0.861 (SE 0.023) for all later survival intervals. 3. We combined 16 winter and spring climate covariates into two principal components axes. F1 was related to warm/wet winters and an early spring on the Norwegian staging areas and F2 to dry/cold winters. We expected that F1 would be positively related to survival and F2 negatively. F1 explained 23% of survival variation (F1,10=3.24; one-sided P=0.051) when alone in a model and 28% (F1,9=4.50; one-sided P=0.031) in a model that assumed a trend for survival. In contrast, neither F2 nor density, land-use, or scaring practices on important Norwegian spring staging areas had discernible effects on survival. 4. Climate change may thus affect goose population dynamics, with warmer winters and earlier springs enhancing survival and fecundity. A possible mechanism is increased food availability on Danish wintering and Norwegian staging areas. As geese are among the main herbivores in Arctic ecosystems, climate change, by increasing goose populations, may have important indirect effects on Arctic vegetation. Our study also highlights the importance of events outside the breeding area for the population dynamics of migrant species.     

Climate change, migratory connctivity and changes in laying date and clutch size of the pied flycatcher

We examined long-term (1943–2003) variability in laying dates and clutch sizes in a Finnish population of the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca Pallas, and analysed whether potential changes were explained by changes in climatic factors at the wintering area in Africa, at migration route or at breeding grounds. Among-year variation in both mean and skewness of laying dates increased, which for mean laying date appeared to be explained by variability of temperatures at the breeding grounds and for skewness by variable temperature trends along the migration route. Pied flycatchers bred earlier in warm springs, but despite a warming trend in pre-laying temperatures, the laying dates tended to delay. Laying dates became continuously later in relation to the phenology of the environment. Mean clutch size decreased with time when mean laying date was controlled for, but the climatic factors did not appear to explain the decrease. The advancement of spring phenology may have shifted some food sources needed for egg-laying, thus leading to later laying and smaller clutches. Variation in clutch size increased when wintering conditions were favourable so that clutch size distribution was skewed with a tail of small clutches when there had been lot of rainfall (more vegetation and insects) in the wintering area. We suggest that when ecological conditions during winter were good, the tail of small clutches represented low-quality individuals that were not able to breed after bad winters. Our analyses demonstrate that measures of spread and symmetry give different information about population level changes than means, and thus complement the understanding of the potential influences of climate change on populations.     

Winter territoriality and flock cohesion in the black-capped chickadee Parus atricapillus

In northwest Massachusetts, black-capped chickadees shifted foraging groups repeatedly each day during the winter. As a result, there was no clear distinction between flock members and floaters, but instead a continuous gradation from birds that formed relatively stable associations to those that shifted groups more frequently. Group territories were absent and individual territories were at most poorly defended, if present at all. This picture differs from other recently studied populations, where flock membership is stable and flock territories are clear. Comparison with other populations indicates that winter social structure in the black-capped chickadee may be sensitive to both winter food levels and the proportion of year-round residents. This indicates that cost-benefit analyses of winter social organization should consider factors acting throughout the year as well as the residence status of the wintering birds. The data suggest that flock size, population density and home range size are sensitive to winter food on the study area, whereas territoriality and flock cohesion may respond more clearly to the local availability of breeding resources or the proportion of year-round residents.     

The Severn Estuary's changing wader populations during the last two decades

Many of the changes in population size which have occurred in the wading birds of the Severn Estuary reflect changes that have taken place in Britain as a whole. An important exception is the dunlin, which has maintained its numbers in the Severn despite undergoing a significant decline nationally. The fluctuations of several species show evidence of the effects of the hard winters of 1979, 1982 and 1986, the dry conditions of 1976 and perhaps of good breeding seasons in the high Arctic. Bridgwater Bay has declined in importance for nearly all species, with many individuals appearing to have switched to the Rumney on the northern shore.     

Winter range compression of migrants in Central America

Where there is seasonal disparity among opportunities, the season with those in shortest supply is most likely to limit populations. Among migrant birds that travel between different breeding and winter ranges, any of breeding, migratory or winter conditions could exclusively constitute such population‐limiting factors. In both the New and Old Worlds, landmass is disproportionately concentrated in temperate latitudes. In the Americas, most passerine bird species that breed in the USA and Canada spend the winter further south, commonly in parts of the tropics where landmass is significantly less. Using a sample of 89 migratory species (eight passerine families) that breed in eastern North America, I considered patterns of geographic breeding range size, winter range size and winter distribution. Winter range size is usually smaller than breeding range size (84 of 89 species), often substantially so (minimum 8%, mean 52%). Wintering latitude explains significant variation in both breeding range size and winter range size, as well as in winter range size relative to breeding range size. In particular, all three measures vary latitudinally in patterns similar to latitudinal variation in landmass. These patterns collectively suggest that the reduction in landmass in the latitudes of Central America and the Caribbean is a limiting factor for migrant bird populations, adding to other research concluding that winter conditions sometimes prevail over breeding conditions in the limitation of populations. Hectare for hectare, habitat destruction in the tropics is likely to have the greater impact on the welfare of passerine populations breeding in North America.     

Temporal and spatial expansion of the Egyptian goose Alopochen aegyptiacus in The Netherlands, 1967–94

In this paper, the temporal and spatial expansion of the Egyptian goose in the Netherlands are described and analysed. The species bred near The Hague for the first time in 1967. In 1983 a second settlement developed in Drenthe. Both settlements expanded. Together, they contained about 1340 breeding pairs in 1994. For both settlements a linear relationship exists between the square root of the area occupied and time. In both cases, population growth is exponential. The bird behaves as a resident species. Thus, in winter numbers in The Netherlands also increase exponentially. The Egyptian goose seems to be sensitive to severe winters, which cause a high mortality. The observed velocity of range expansion is compared with the velocity as calculated with the expansion model of Van den Bosch et al . (1990). The observed velocity was about 3.0 km per year, which is about 20% lower than expected, but not significantly different. Population growth was estimated using a projection matrix. In the first 10 years after its settlement near The Hague, the actual population growth was larger than the calculated growth. There is evidence for good breeding success during the first years due to mild winters between 1972 and 1978. In the second settlement, Drenthe, the same rapid population growth occurred. Here, a low but regular influx of birds from a nearby city park was probably the main factor. In the near future, further temporal and spatial expansion can be expected, in the direction of Germany and Denmark in the east and Belgium and France in the south. Towards the east the severity of the winters might limit further range expansion, possibly coinciding with the 0^o isotherm in January.     

Winter Movement Dynamics of Black Brant

ABSTRACT Although North American geese are managed based on their breeding distributions, the dynamics of those breeding populations may be affected by events that occur during the winter. Birth rates of capital breeding geese may be influenced by wintering conditions, mortality may be influenced by timing of migration and wintering distribution, and immigration and emigration among breeding populations may depend on winter movement and timing of pair formation. We examined factors affecting movements of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) among their primary wintering sites in Mexico and southern California, USA, (Mar 1998-Mar 2000) using capture-recapture models. Although brant exhibited high probability (>0.85) of monthly and annual fidelity to the wintering sites we sampled, we observed movements among all wintering sites. Movement probabilities both within and among winters were negatively related to distance between sites. We observed a higher probability both of southward movement between winters (Mar to Dec) and northward movement between months within winters. Between-winter movements were probably most strongly affected by spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality as we saw movement patterns consistent with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., La Niña and El Niño southern oscillation cycles). Month-to-month movements were related to migration patterns and may also have been affected by differences in habitat conditions among sites. Patterns of winter movements indicate that a network of wintering sites may be necessary for effective conservation of brant.     

Cold tolerance,and not earlier arrival on breeding grounds,explains why males winter further north in an Arctic‐breeding songbird

Sex biases in distributions of migratory birds during the non‐breeding season are widespread; however, the proximate mechanisms contributing to broad‐scale sex‐ratio variation are not well understood. We analyzed a long‐term winter‐banding dataset in combination with spring migration data from individuals tracked by using geolocators to test three hypotheses for observed variation in sex‐ratios in wintering flocks of snow buntings Plectrophenax nivalis. We quantified relevant weather conditions in winter (temperature, snowfall and snow depth) at each banding site each year and measured body size and condition (fat scores) of individual birds (n > 5500). We also directly measured spring migration distance for 17 individuals by using light‐level geolocators. If the distribution pattern of birds in winter is related to interactions between individual body size and thermoregulation, then larger bodied birds (males) should be found in colder sites (body size hypothesis). Males may also winter closer to breeding grounds to reduce migration distance for early arrival at breeding sites (arrival timing hypothesis). Finally, males may be socially dominant over females, and thus exclude females from high‐quality wintering sites (social dominance hypothesis). We found support for the body size hypothesis, in that colder and snowier weather predicted both larger body size and higher proportions of males banded. Direct tracking revealed that males did not winter significantly closer to their breeding site, despite being slightly further north on average than females from the same breeding population. We found some evidence for social dominance, in that females tended to carry more fat than males, potentially indicating lower habitat quality for females. Global climatic warming may reduce temperature constraints on females and smaller‐bodied males, resulting in broad‐scale changes in distributional patterns. Whether this has repercussions for individual fitness, and therefore population demography, is an important area of future research.     

Large-scale effect of climate change on breeding parameters of pied flycatchers in Western Europe

Variations in laying date and clutch size of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca across populations throughout western Europe are examined in relation to climatic fluctuations, measured by the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Across breeding sites, the winter-NAO index affected laying date such that females lay earlier after warmer and moister winters (positive values of winter NAO-index). Female pied flycatchers breed progressively earlier because presumably the whole breeding season is being shifted, as a direct result of the positive values of winter NAO-index. Moreover, clutch size of pied flycatchers across populations was negatively related to winter NAO-index during the last 50 yr. These analyses controlled for potentially confounding variables such as latitude, longitude, elevation and habitat of each study site. The present study conclude that pied flycatchers across western Europe are breeding earlier and laying smaller clutch sizes and that the most likely cause is a long-term increase in spring temperature. On the other hand, this study shows that climate change may not act uniformly between breeding populations in Western Europe. From those results, this study concludes that northern pied flycatcher populations are more sensitive to climate change than southern populations breeding in montane habitats.