Predictions of establishment risk highlight biosurveillance priorities for invasive fish in New Zealand lakes

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Determinants of palm species distributions across Africa: the relative roles of climate,non‐climatic environmental factors,and spatial constraints

Most of the Earth's biodiversity resides in the tropics. However, a comprehensive understanding of which factors control range limits of tropical species is still lacking. Climate is often thought to be the predominant range‐determining mechanism at large spatial scales. Alternatively, species’ ranges may be controlled by soil or other environmental factors, or by non‐environmental factors such as biotic interactions, dispersal barriers, intrinsic population dynamics, or time‐limited expansion from place of origin or past refugia. How species ranges are controlled is of key importance for predicting their responses to future global change. Here, we use a novel implementation of species distribution modelling (SDM) to assess the degree to which African continental‐scale species distributions in a keystone tropical group, the palms (Arecaceae), are controlled by climate, non‐climatic environmental factors, or non‐environmental spatial constraints. A comprehensive data set on African palm species occurrences was assembled and analysed using the SDM algorithm Maxent in combination with climatic and non‐climatic environmental predictors (habitat, human impact), as well as spatial eigenvector mapping (spatial filters). The best performing models always included spatial filters, suggesting that palm species distributions are always to some extent limited by non‐environmental constraints. Models which included climate provided significantly better predictions than models that included only non‐climatic environmental predictors, the latter having no discernible effect beyond the climatic control. Hence, at the continental scale, climate constitutes the only strong environmental control of palm species distributions in Africa. With regard to the most important climatic predictors of African palm distributions, water‐related factors were most important for 25 of the 29 species analysed. The strong response of palm distributions to climate in combination with the importance of non‐environmental spatial constraints suggests that African palms will be sensitive to future climate changes, but that their ability to track suitable climatic conditions will be spatially constrained.     

Rules for macroorganisms applied to microorganisms: patterns of endemism in benthic freshwater diatoms

Ecological theory based on the dynamic equilibrium model (DEM) suggests that maintenance of endemic taxa is most likely in stable, unproductive environments. We tested whether this hypothesis, which was developed mainly using terrestrial plant examples, held when applied to distributions of benthic freshwater diatoms in New Zealand. Given current arguments for the ubiquity of microbial organisms, with distributions determined mainly by environmental tolerances, demonstration that distinctive taxa with evidently restricted distributions conform to theory applicable to larger organisms would lend support to the opposite point of view, that barriers to dispersal do exist. We examined diatom communities from over 320 sites representing the entire spectrum of freshwater habitats in New Zealand and assessed relative abundances of the main taxa present. Each taxon distinguished was assigned to one of five distribution categories ranging from cosmopolitan to endemic. We derived indices of disturbance and productivity for each site using the River Environment Classification (REC), a GIS-based classification system developed for New Zealand rivers. Diatom taxa assigned to endemic or distinctive potential endemic categories were significantly more abundant in low disturbance sites but occurred across a range of productivities. However, bogs and tarns, both of which fell mainly into low disturbance and productivity classes, were distinctive in supporting relatively high proportions of endemic and potential endemic diatoms. Thus our findings in general conformed to the patterns predicted by the DEM, thereby supporting the role of dispersal limitation in diatoms. At the same time, conformity with the DEM helps to explain the continued coexistence in New Zealand freshwaters of many common and apparently cosmopolitan taxa with endemic diatoms, since the DEM explanation for maintenance of endemism does not rely on geographic isolation of species.     

Correlates of geographic range size in New Zealand Chionochloa (Poaceae) species

Aim To test for correlations between plant traits and geographic range size. Location: New Zealand. Methods Trait data were derived from comparative experiments, in which plants were grown in pots or in a common garden, that tested for intrinsic differences among the species in traits relating to growth, reproduction and dispersal. Controlled experiments were used to test for differences in responses to drought and waterlogging stress. Geographic range size was measured as the number of 10 km grid squares in the New Zealand region containing at least one occurrence of the species. Results Growth rate, dispersal capacity and environmental tolerance were all positively related to geographic range size. Geographically restricted species tended to have more variable flowering between years. Flowering intensity, reproductive allocation, seed set, diaspore size, and responses to single environmental factors were not related to geographic range size. Main conclusions The differences between range‐restricted and widespread Chionochloa species appear to represent alternative strategies of coping with environmental change in a dynamic landscape. Range‐restricted species are specialized to temporally persistent habitats that are of limited geographic extent. As a consequence, they have evolved traits that conflict with persistence in widespread habitats. The implication for conservation management is that the conservation of rare plants will frequently depend on protection of their habitats. The widespread Chionochloa species possess traits that enable them to disperse to and occupy a greater range of habitats. These traits have allowed some of these species to expand their ranges following environmental changes that favoured an increase in grassland extent.     

Worldwide long‐distance dispersal favored by epizoochorous traits in the biogeographic history of Omphalodeae (Boraginaceae)

Biogeographic dispersal is supported by numerous phylogenetic results. In particular, transoceanic dispersal, rather than vicariance, is suggested for some plant lineages despite current long distances between America and Europe. However, few studies on the biogeographic history of plants have also studied the role of diaspore syndromes in long‐distance dispersal (LDD). Species of the tribe Omphalodeae (Boraginaceae) offer a suitable study system because the species have a wide variety of diaspore traits related to LDD and different lineages conform to patched worldwide distributions on three distant continents (Europe, America and New Zealand). Our aim is to reconstruct the biogeographical history of the Omphalodeae and to investigate the role of diaspore traits favoring LDD and current geographic distributions. To this end, a time‐calibrated phylogeny with 29 of 32 species described for Omphalodeae was reconstructed using biogeographical analyses (BioGeoBEARS, Lagrange) and models (DEC and DIVA) under different scenarios of land connectivity. Character‐state reconstruction (SIMMAP) and diversification rate estimations of the main lineages were also performed. The main result is that epizoochorous traits have been the ancestral state of LDD syndromes in most clades. An early diversification age of the tribe is inferred in the Western Mediterranean during late Oligocene. Colonization of the New World by Omphalodeae, followed by fast lineage differentiation, took place sometime in the Oligocene‐Miocene boundary, as already inferred for other angiosperm genera. In contrast, colonization of remote islands (New Zealand, Juan Fernández) occurred considerably later in the Miocene‐Pliocene boundary.     

Molecular evidence for long-distance dispersal in the New Zealand pteridophyte flora

Aim To examine the relative importance of long‐distance dispersal in shaping the New Zealand pteridophyte (ferns and lycophytes) flora and its relationships with other floras, with the null hypothesis that the extant New Zealand pteridophyte flora has been isolated since New Zealand’s separation from Gondwana. Location New Zealand. Methods rbcL DNA sequences were assembled for 31 New Zealand pteridophyte genera, with each genus represented by one New Zealand species and the most closely related non‐New Zealand species for which data were available. Maximum‐likelihood, maximum‐parsimony, and Bayesian analysis phylograms were constructed and used as input for r 8s molecular dating, along with 23 fossil calibrations. Divergence estimates less than conservatively recent ages for New Zealand’s geological isolation, namely H_o > 30 Ma for pairs involving New Caledonian and Norfolk Island species and H_o > 55 Ma for all others, were taken as rejection of the null hypothesis. Results The null hypothesis was rejected for all pairs except, under some parameter conditions, for those involving the New Zealand species Cardiomanes reniforme, Lindsaea trichomanoides, Loxsoma cunninghamii, Lygodium articulatum, Marattia salicina, and Pteris comans. However, the Lindsaea and Pteris results probably reflect the absence in the analyses of closely related non‐New Zealand samples, while the Marattia divergence was highly contingent on which fossil calibrations were used. Main conclusions Rejection of the null hypothesis for the majority of pairs implies that the extant New Zealand lineage has undergone long‐distance dispersal either into or out of New Zealand. The notion of a long isolation since geological separation can, therefore, be dismissed for much of New Zealand’s pteridophyte flora. The analyses do not identify the direction of the long‐distance dispersal, and these New Zealand lineages could have had vicariant origins with subsequent long‐distance emigration. However, the alternative that many extant New Zealand pteridophyte lineages only arrived by long‐distance immigration after geological isolation seems likely.     

Mutualist‐mediated effects on species' range limits across large geographic scales

Understanding the processes determining species range limits is central to predicting species distributions under climate change. Projected future ranges are extrapolated from distribution models based on climate layers, and few models incorporate the effects of biotic interactions on species' distributions. Here, we show that a positive species interaction ameliorates abiotic stress, and has a profound effect on a species' range limits. Combining field surveys of 92 populations, 10 common garden experiments throughout the range, species distribution models and greenhouse experiments, we show that mutualistic fungal endophytes ameliorate drought stress and broaden the geographic range of their native grass host Bromus laevipes by thousands of square kilometres (~ 20% larger) into drier habitats. Range differentiation between fungal‐associated and fungal‐free grasses was comparable to species‐level range divergence of congeners, indicating large impacts on range limits. Positive biotic interactions may be underappreciated in determining species' ranges and species' responses to future climates across large geographic scales.     

Is New Zealand vegetation really ‘problematic’? Dansereau's puzzles revisited

Over four decades ago, Pierre Dansereau, the noted North American ecologist, proposed six features of New Zealand vegetation as being problematic or unusual in a global context. We examine his propositions in the light of current ecological knowledge to determine whether or not these can still be considered unusual characteristics of New Zealand vegetation. (1) ‘Climatic change is still progressing’ resulting in disequilibrium between species' distributions and the present climate. New data and methods of analysis now available have removed the impression that Dansereau gained of imprecise zonation, unclear vegetation/climate relations and missing vegetation types. Communities cited as having regeneration failure can now be seen as even‐aged stands that developed after major disturbance, although there are other, also non‐climatic, explanations. However, the cause of the Westland ‘Nothofagus gap’ has become more, rather than less, controversial. (2) ‘Continuity of community composition defies classification’ and ‘Very few New Zealand associations have faithful species' are correct observations, but perhaps equally true of vegetation elsewhere. Dansereau's assertion of low species richness in New Zealand is not supported by the comparative data available. (3) ‘Lack of intolerant [i.e. mid‐seral] trees …’ is not evident with newer information. The order of species in succession, seen as unclear by Dansereau, has been determined by a range of approaches, largely confirming each other. (4) ‘Discrepancies of form and function …’ in divaricate shrubs and widespread heteroblasty are still controversial, with many more explanations. Several abiotic explanations have failed to stand up to investigation. Explanations in terms of herbivory have been well supported, although the extinction of the large avian herbivores makes certainty impossible. (5) ‘Incidence of hybridization …’ remains problematic. We do not know whether the incidence is unusually high, as Dansereau alleged, but the limited comparative data available suggest not. (6) The ‘overwhelming … competing power of exotics' is strongly context dependent. They are prominent in many non‐forest habitats. It seems that they are drivers of the vegetation change in some habitats, yet passengers after disturbance in others. Invasions can be slow, and may still be very incomplete in some ecosystem types. Whether exotics will eventually take over in most communities, or whether the native species will ‘laugh them to scorn’ as Cockayne suggested, only time will tell. In conclusion, some aspects of New Zealand's vegetation seem less unusual with increased knowledge, but others remain ‘problems’.     

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range‐edge populations

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range‐edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range‐edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range‐edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range‐core populations. We also highlight how large‐scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest‐cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range‐edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range‐edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.     

Evolution of bird migration in a biogeographical context

We infer from the literature that migratory habits of birds evolved in various phylogenetic lineages and biogeographical contexts, either after gradual range expansion into seasonal habitats, or due to environmental changes within established breeding ranges. Shifts of breeding ranges are the results of interactions between colonization due to dispersal and extinction due to deteriorating conditions. Range expansions provide a platform for the evolution of migration from the newly colonized areas towards seasonally favourable non‐breeding areas. A comparison of palaeoclimatic changes with concurrent evolution and distribution of passerine birds suggests that at least some of the basic genera of the Passerida radiated on the northern continents when quasi‐tropical or subtropical climates prevailed. The Passerida may be a special case, but they suggest that ‘tropical origin’ does not necessarily imply a ‘southern origin’ of migratory species. Climate deterioration required adaptations either towards on‐site survival under harsh conditions or towards escape movements allowing improved non‐breeding survival in less seasonal climates or with reversed seasonality. Taxon‐specific life‐history traits and environmental conditions favoured either sedentary or migratory lines of adaptation. Repeated climate variation induced range shifts and concurrent increases or decreases in the expression of migratory behaviour. Two examples of waders suggest that the principle of range shift, followed by the development of migratory habits, is also applicable for other taxonomic groups.     

Lake construction has facilitated calanoid copepod invasions in New Zealand

Aim We tested the hypothesis that construction of lakes and ponds has facilitated both inter‐ and intracontinental invasions of calanoid copepod species. Location North Island, New Zealand. Methods We sampled both natural and constructed lakes, ponds and reservoirs for calanoid copepods in the North Island, New Zealand. Species records were supplemented by examining historically collected samples and literature review. Distributions of non‐indigenous calanoid copepod species were compared between constructed and natural waters. Species distributions of native species were compared with the basement terranes (microplates) of the North Island to determine if they possess ‘natural ranges’, and to assess whether construction of new water bodies had altered these distributions. Results Ten calanoid copepod species have been recorded. At least four, and possibly five, of these species are non‐indigenous and were restricted to constructed water bodies. Occurrences in constructed water bodies were not restricted to dammed valleys, but also included ponds constructed on farms, ornamental ponds, disused quarries and retired mines. Four Boeckella species had distributions in natural waters closely related to the North Island basement terranes, and therefore possess ‘natural ranges’ on the island. One species, Boeckella propinqua, was found in natural lakes over a small geographical range only, but has spread with construction of new water bodies to now be widely distributed over the island. Main conclusions Construction of lakes and ponds has facilitated the invasion of calanoid copepod species at both inter‐ and intracontinental scales. Our findings suggest that resident native calanoid copepod species may reduce the risk of invasion to natural water bodies, as similar‐sized species are commonly unable to co‐occur. Spread of the non‐indigenous representatives from constructed into natural waters is inevitable, with established populations providing local propagule supplies for regular introductions.     

Catchment- and site-scale influences of forest cover and longitudinal forest position on the distribution of a diadromous fish

1. The hydrologic connectivity between landscape elements and streams means that fragmentation of terrestrial habitats could affect the distribution of stream faunas at multiple spatial scales. We investigated how catchment‐ and site‐scale influences, including proportion and position of forest cover within a catchment, and presence of riparian forest cover affected the distribution of a diadromous fish. 2. The occurrence of koaro (Galaxias brevipinnis) in 50‐m stream reaches with either forested or non‐forested riparian margins at 172 sites in 24 catchments on Banks Peninsula, South Island, New Zealand was analysed. Proportions of catchments forested and the dominant position (upland or lowland) of forest within catchments were determined using geographical information system spatial analysis tools. 3. Multivariate analysis of variance indicated forest position and proportion forested at the catchment accounted for the majority of the variation in the overall proportion of sites in a catchment with koaro. 4. Where forest was predominantly in the lower part of the catchments, the presence of riparian cover was important in explaining the proportion of sites with koaro. However, where forest was predominantly in the upper part of the catchment, the effect of riparian forest was not as strong. In the absence of riparian forest cover, no patterns of koaro distribution with respect to catchment forest cover or forest position were detected. 5. These results indicate that landscape elements, such as the proportion and position of catchment forest, operating at catchment‐scales, influence the distribution of diadromous fish but their influence depends on the presence of riparian vegetation, a site‐scale factor.     

Recalculating route: dispersal constraints will drive the redistribution of Amazon primates in the Anthropocene

Climate change will redistribute the global biodiversity in the Anthropocene. As climates change, species might move from one place to another, due to local extinctions and colonization of new environments. However, the existence of permeable migratory routes precedes faunal migrations in fragmented landscapes. Here, we investigate how dispersal will affect the outcome of climate change on the distribution of Amazon's primate species. We modeled the distribution of 80 Amazon primate species, using ecological niche models, and projected their potential distribution on scenarios of climate change. Then, we imposed landscape restrictions to primate dispersal, derived from a natural biogeographical barrier to primates (the main tributaries of the Amazon river) and an anthropogenic constraint to the migration of many canopy‐dependent animals (deforested areas). We also highlighted potential conflict zones, i.e. regions of high migration potential but predicted to be deforested. Species response to climate change varied across dispersal limitation scenarios. If species could occupy all newly suitable climate, almost 70% of species could expand ranges. Including dispersal barriers (natural and anthropogenic), however, led to range expansion in only less than 20% of the studied species. When species were not allowed to migrate, all of them lost an average of 90% of the suitable area, suggesting that climate may become unsuitable within their present distributions. All Amazon primate species may need to move as climate changes to avoid deleterious effects of exposure to non‐analog climates. The effect of climate change on the distribution of Amazon primates will ultimately depend on whether landscape permeability will allow climate‐driven faunal migrations. The network of protected areas in the Amazon could work as ‘stepping stones’ but most are outside important migratory routes. Therefore, protecting important dispersal corridors is foremost to allow effective migrations of the Amazon fauna in face of climate change and deforestation.     

Where am I and why? Synthesizing range biology and the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of dispersal

Although generations of researchers have studied the factors that limit the distributions of species, we still do not seem to understand this phenomenon comprehensively. Traditionally, species’ ranges have been seen as the consequence of abiotic conditions and local adaptation to the environment. However, during the last years it has become more and more evident that biotic factors – such as intra‐ and interspecific interactions or the dispersal capacity of species – and even rapidly occurring evolutionary processes can strongly influence the range of a species and its potential to spread to new habitats. Relevant eco‐evolutionary forces can be found at all hierarchical levels: from landscapes to communities via populations, individuals and genes. We here use the metapopulation concept to develop a framework that allows us to synthesize this broad spectrum of different factors. Since species’ ranges are the result of a dynamic equilibrium of colonization and local extinction events, the importance of dispersal is immediately clear. We highlight the complex interrelations and feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary forces that shape dispersal and result in non‐trivial and partially counter‐intuitive range dynamics. Our concept synthesizes current knowledge on range biology and the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of dispersal. Synthesis What factors are responsible for the dynamics of species' ranges? Answering this question has never been more important than today, in the light of rapid environmental changes. Surprisingly, the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of dispersal – which represent the driving forces behind range formation – have rarely been considered in this context. We here present a framework that closes this gap. Dispersal evolution may be responsible for highly complex and non‐trivial range dynamics. In order to understand these, and possibly provide projections of future range positions, it is crucial to take the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of dispersal into account.     

Utility of the CLIMEX ‘match climates regional’ algorithm for pest risk analysis: an evaluation with non-native ants in New Zealand

Pest risk analysts frequently ask if the climate of a pest risk analysis area could be suitable for the establishment of an organism of concern. Species distribution models can help to answer this question, but constructing them is technically complex, time consuming, and uninformative for additional non-modelled species. A quicker more broadly applicable approach involves using environmental distance metrics, including climate matching algorithms such as the ‘match climates regional’ function of CLIMEX (CLIMEX-MCR), to generate indices of climatic similarity between different locations without reference to particular species. Several studies have shown that various environmental distance metrics can provide biologically meaningful results. However, the veracity of the CLIMEX-MCR algorithm remains unevaluated, despite its application in numerous published studies. We used CLIMEX-MCR and high resolution New Zealand climate data to measure climatic similarities between New Zealand and the rest of the world. We then tested the veracity of the climatic match estimates by evaluating if their predictions regarding the suitability of New Zealand’s climate for 43 non-native ant species corresponded with empirical observations of those species in New Zealand. Non-native ants that are, or were once, established outdoors in New Zealand had overseas distributions that were climatically well matched with New Zealand. In contrast, species that either are established only indoors in New Zealand, or were observed to temporarily nest outdoors then die in New Zealand, had overseas distributions that were poorly matched. Species that are frequently intercepted at New Zealand’s border, but are not established there, generally also had overseas distributions with low climatic similarities to New Zealand. We also measured climatic similarities between New Zealand’s 13 national parks and the rest of the world. The overseas distributions of the non-native ants showed poor climatic matches with New Zealand’s national parks, which was consistent with the absence of persistent outdoor non-native ant populations in those parks. Our results support the utility of CLIMEX-MCR algorithm for pest risk analysis.     

Extensive genetic differentiation in Gobiomorphus breviceps from New Zealand

Partial mitochondrial DNA sequences for parts of the cytochrome b gene and control region were obtained for 89 upland bullies Gobiomorphus breviceps from 19 catchments in New Zealand. There were two highly distinctive mtDNA clades: a northern clade corresponding to the North Island, northern South Island and west coast South Island, and a south‐east clade, in the southern and eastern South Island. Within these major clades there were further distinct clades that correlated with geographic sub‐regions and catchments. The marked genetic differentiation has occurred in the absence of obvious morphological divergence. Based on cytochrome b sequence divergences and the molecular clock hypothesis, the northern and southeastern clades correspond with the uplift of the Southern Alps during the Pliocene, while populations in the North Island and northern South Island were estimated to have diverged during the Pleistocene. The widescale geographic divergences were similar to those observed in the galaxiids, Galaxias vulgaris and Galaxias divergens , but biogeographic management boundaries may not be the same, reflecting different evolutionary histories for non‐diadromous species occupying the same areas.     

The effect of the extent of the study region on GIS models of species geographic distributions and estimates of niche evolution: preliminary tests with montane rodents (genus Nephelomys) in Venezuela

Aim Various techniques model a species’ niche and potential distribution by comparing the environmental conditions of occurrence localities with those of the overall study region (via a background or pseudoabsence sample). Here, we examine how changes in the extent of the study region (ignored or under‐appreciated in most studies) affect models of two rodents, Nephelomys caracolus and Nephelomys meridensis. Location North‐central South America. Methods We used Maxent to model the species' potential distributions via two methods of defining the study region. In Method 1 (typical of most studies to date), we calibrated the model in a large study region that included the ranges of both species. In Method 2, we calibrated the model using a smaller study region surrounding the localities of the focal species, and then applied it to the larger region. Because the study region of Method 1 is likely to include areas of suitable conditions that are unoccupied because of dispersal limitations and/or biotic interactions, this approach is prone to overfitting to conditions found near the occupied localities. In contrast, Method 2 should avoid such problems but may require further assumptions (‘clamping’ in Maxent ) to make predictions for areas with environmental conditions beyond those found in the smaller study region. For each method, we calculated several measures of geographic interpredictivity between predictions for the species (cross‐species AUC, cross‐species omission rate, and proportional geographic overlap). Results Compared with Method 1, Method 2 revealed a larger predicted area for each species, less concentrated around known localities (especially for N. caracolus). It also led to higher cross‐species AUC values, lower cross‐species omission rates and higher proportions of geographic overlap. Clamping was minimal and occurred primarily in regions unlikely to be suitable. Main conclusions Method 2 led to more realistic predictions and higher estimates of niche conservatism. Conclusions reached by many studies depend on the selection of an appropriate study region. Although detailed information regarding dispersal limitations and/or biotic interactions will typically be difficult to obtain, consideration of coarse distributional patterns, topography and vegetational zones often should permit delimitation of a much more reasonable study region than the extremely large ones currently in common use.     

Consistent spatial patterns across biogeographic gradients in temperate reef fishes

Biogeographic gradients may facilitate divergent evolution between populations of the same species, leading to geographic variation and possibly reproductive isolation. Previous work has shown that New Zealand triplefin species (family Tripterygiidae) have diversified in habitat use, however, knowledge about the consistency of this pattern throughout their geographic range is lacking. Here we examine the spatial habitat associations of 15 New Zealand triplefin species at nine locations on a latitudinal gradient from 35°50'S to 46°70'S to establish whether distant populations differ in habitat use. Triplefin diversity and density varied between locations, as did habitat variables such as percentage cover of the substratum, onshore-offshore location, microposition, depth and exposure. Canonical discriminant analysis identified specific species-habitat combinations, and when habitat was statistically partialled from location, most species exhibited consistent habitat associations throughout their range. However, the density of a few species at some locations was lower or higher than expected given the habitat availability. This indicates that the habitat variables recorded were not the sole predictors of assemblage structure, and it is likely that factors influencing larval dispersal (e.g. the low salinity layer in Fiordland and geographic isolation of the Three Kings Islands) play an additional role in structuring assemblage composition. Together these results suggest that New Zealand triplefin species show strong and consistent habitat use across potential biogeographical barriers, but this pattern appears to be modified by variation in larval supply and survival. This indicates that species with broad geographic distributions do not necessarily show phenotypic variation between populations.     

Patterns of niche filling and expansion across the invaded ranges of an Australian lizard

Studies of realized niche shifts in alien species typically ignore the potential effects of intraspecific niche variation and different invaded‐range environments on niche lability. We incorporate our detailed knowledge of the native‐range source populations and global introduction history of the delicate skink Lampropholis delicata to examine intraspecific variation in realized niche expansion and unfilling, and investigate how alternative niche modelling approaches are affected by that variation. We analyzed the realized niche dynamics of L. delicata using an ordination method, ecological niche models (ENMs), and occurrence records from 1) Australia (native range), 2) New Zealand, 3) Hawaii, 4) the two distinct native‐range clades that were the sources for the New Zealand and Hawaii introductions, and 5) the species’ global range (including Lord Howe Island, Australia). We found a gradient of realized niche change across the invaded ranges of L. delicata: niche stasis on Lord Howe Island, niche unfilling in New Zealand (16%), and niche unfilling (87%) and expansion (14%) in Hawaii. ENMs fitted to native‐range data generally identified suitable climatic conditions at sites where the species has established non‐native populations, whereas ENMs based on native‐range source clades and non‐native populations had lower spatial transferability. Our results suggest that the extent to which realized niches are maintained during invasion does not depend on species‐level traits. When realized niche shifts are predominately due to niche unfilling, fully capturing species’ responses along climatic gradients by basing ENMs on native distributions may be more important for accurate invasion forecasts than incorporating phylogenetic differentiation, or integrating niche changes in the invaded range.     

Effects of coupled natural and anthropogenic factors on the community structure of diadromous fish and shrimp species in tropical island streams

1. Overlapping river and road networks provide a framework for studying the complex interactions between natural and human systems, with river‐road intersections as focal areas of study. Roads can alter the morphology of stream channels, pose barriers to freshwater fauna, provide easy access to streams for humans and non‐native species and accelerate the expansion of urban development. 2. We determined what variables control the structure of diadromous fish and shrimp communities and assessed whether particular road crossings altered community structure in north‐eastern Puerto Rico. We identified 24 sites that represented a range of river and road sizes across two catchments that drain El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico. 3. The location of natural barriers and the size of stream pools were the most important variables for predicting six of fifteen fish and shrimp distributions. Predatory fishes were predicted to be limited to areas in the river network below large, steep waterfalls, whereas adult shrimp Atya lanipes (Atyidae) were predicted to be present above these waterfalls. The fish Awaous banana was predicted to be present in pools >11.6 m wide, whereas the shrimp Xiphocaris elongata was predicted to be present in pools <10.4 m wide. The distributions of nine species were predicted poorly, but three of these species were common and three were rare. 4. Although urban and agricultural land covers were among the top three predictors of five species distributions, they were probably good predictors because they were correlated with the natural gradient. Further study is necessary to disentangle natural and anthropogenic gradients. 5. Road crossings, 10 of which were culverts, were not dispersal barriers for fishes or shrimps. On average, species were present both upstream and downstream from road crossings at 68% of sites where they occurred. Absences upstream or downstream from road crossings occurred at 16% of sites each and likely resulted from a failure to detect species. 6. Several existing features of these catchments and taxa may aid in fish and shrimp conservation. The headwaters are protected by management practices of El Yunque National Forest, connectivity within the river network has been maintained, and the diadromous life history of these organisms makes them resilient to pulsed disturbances.