A guide to the genomics of ecological speciation in natural animal populations

Interest in ecological speciation is growing, as evidence accumulates showing that natural selection can lead to rapid divergence between subpopulations. However, whether and how ecological divergence can lead to the buildup of reproductive isolation remains under debate. What is the relative importance of natural selection vs. neutral processes? How does adaptation generate reproductive isolation? Can ecological speciation occur despite homogenizing gene flow? These questions can be addressed using genomic approaches, and with the rapid development of genomic technology, will become more answerable in studies of wild populations than ever before. In this article, we identify open questions in ecological speciation theory and suggest useful genomic methods for addressing these questions in natural animal populations. We aim to provide a practical guide for ecologists interested in incorporating genomic methods into their research programs. An increased integration between ecological research and genomics has the potential to shed novel light on the origin of species.     

Patterns of success in game bird introductions in the United States

Better predictions of the success of species’ introductions require careful evaluation of the relative importance of at least three kinds of factors: species characteristics, characteristics of the site of introduction, and event-level factors such as the numbers of individuals released. (Henceforth, we call this propagule pressure.) The 1644 introductions of 17 Phasianid species released in various US states during the Foreign Game Investigation Program provides a particularly rich source of data to test these ideas. An examination of these records indicates that 13 of these 17 species always failed, despite generally numerous individual releases and large numbers of individuals in each release. Moreover, ten of these species have been successfully introduced elsewhere. Only four of the 17 species were successful in at least one state. Some 20 sets of releases of three of these four species always failed in some states, again given generally numerous individual releases of large numbers of individuals in each release. Simply, the combination of site and species factors explain the lack of successes. This leaves a combination of 18 states where one or more of the four species succeeded. For these, there are significant differences in the numbers of birds introduced from state to state. But only for two species Alectoris chukar and; Tetraogallus himalayensis are there significant differences that show a greater chance of success when more individuals are introduced. These results support the conclusion that the number of individuals released, meaning propagule pressure, is not as important as characteristics of the species and the location to where its introduction occurred.     

Evolutionary and demographic history of the Californian scrub white oak species complex: an integrative approach

Understanding the factors promoting species formation is a major task in evolutionary research. Here, we employ an integrative approach to study the evolutionary history of the Californian scrub white oak species complex (genus Quercus). To infer the relative importance of geographical isolation and ecological divergence in driving the speciation process, we (i) analysed inter‐ and intraspecific patterns of genetic differentiation and employed an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework to evaluate different plausible scenarios of species divergence. In a second step, we (ii) linked the inferred divergence pathways with current and past species distribution models (SDMs) and (iii) tested for niche differentiation and phylogenetic niche conservatism across taxa. ABC analyses showed that the most plausible scenario is the one considering the divergence of two main lineages followed by a more recent pulse of speciation. Genotypic data in conjunction with SDMs and niche differentiation analyses support that different factors (geography vs. environment) and modes of speciation (parapatry, allopatry and maybe sympatry) have played a role in the divergence process within this complex. We found no significant relationship between genetic differentiation and niche overlap, which probably reflects niche lability and/or that multiple factors, have contributed to speciation. Our study shows that different mechanisms can drive divergence even among closely related taxa representing early stages of species formation and exemplifies the importance of adopting integrative approaches to get a better understanding of the speciation process.     

Diversification in sexual and asexual organisms

Abstract Sexual reproduction has long been proposed as a major factor explaining the existence of species and species diversity. Yet, the importance of sex for diversification remains obscure because of a lack of critical theory, difficulties of applying universal concepts of species and speciation, and above all the scarcity of empirical tests. Here, we use genealogical theory to compare the relative tendency of strictly sexual and asexual organisms to diversify into discrete genotypic and morphological clusters. We conclude that asexuals are expected to display discrete clusters similar to those found in sexual organisms. Whether sexuals or asexuals display stronger clustering depends on a number of factors, but in at least some scenarios asexuals should display a stronger pattern. Confounding factors aside, the only explanation we identify for stronger patterns of diversification in sexuals than asexuals is if the faster rates of adaptive change conferred by sexual reproduction promote greater clustering. Quantitative comparisons of diversification in related sexual and asexual taxa are needed to resolve this issue. The answer should shed light not only on the importance of the different stages leading to diversification, but also on the adaptive consequences of sex, still largely unexplored from a macroevolutionary perspective.     

Ecological speciation in phytophagous insects

Divergent natural selection has been shown to promote speciation in a wide range of taxa. For example, adaptation to different ecological environments, via divergent selection, can result in the evolution of reproductive incompatibility between populations. Phytophagous insects have been at the forefront of these investigations of 'ecological speciation' and it is clear that adaptation to different host plants can promote insect speciation. However, much remains unknown. For example, there is abundant variability in the extent to which divergent selection promotes speciation, the sources of divergent selection, the types of reproductive barriers involved, and the genetic basis of divergent adaptation. We review these factors here. Several findings emerge, including the observation that although numerous different sources of divergent selection and reproductive isolation can be involved in insect speciation, their order of evolution and relative importance are poorly understood. Another finding is that the genetic basis of host preference and performance can involve loci of major effect and opposing dominance, factors which might facilitate speciation in the face of gene flow. In addition, we raise a number of other recent issues relating to phytophagous insect speciation, such as alternatives to ecological speciation, the geography of speciation, and the molecular signatures of speciation. Throughout, we aim to both synthesize what is known, as well as highlight areas where future work is especially needed.     

Using sex ratios to estimate what limits reproduction in parasitoids

The reproductive success of a foraging parasitoid may be limited by the number of eggs that she produces and/or the number of hosts that she can locate. Despite the significance for population dynamics and numerous areas of behavioural ecology, the relative importance of these factors remains an issue of contention. Attempts to resolve this controversy have been hindered because estimating the importance of factors limiting reproduction in the field can be extremely laborious and time consuming. We show how sex ratio data can be used as a relatively easy method to indirectly estimate the relative importance of the factors limiting reproduction. Sex ratio data from 48 samples of eight species suggest that: (a) the extent of host or egg limitation in a species varies between site collected and time of year; and (b) on average, species are at an intermediate position on the egg/host limitation continuum, with a bias towards host limitation.     

Can sympatric speciation by disruptive sexual selection explain rapid evolution of cichlid diversity in Lake Victoria?

Rapid speciation can occur on ecological time scales and interfere with ecological processes, resulting in species distribution patterns that are difficult to reconcile with ecological theory. The haplochromine cichlids in East African lakes are an extreme example of rapid speciation. We analyse the causes of their high speciation rates. Various studies have identified disruptive sexual selection acting on colour polymorphisms that might cause sympatric speciation. Using data on geographical distribution, colouration and relatedness from 41 species endemic to Lake Victoria, we test predictions from this hypothesis. Plotting numbers of pairs of closely related species against the amount of distributional overlap between the species reveals a bimodal distribution with modes on allopatric and sympatric. The proportion of sister species pairs that are heteromorphic for the traits under disruptive selection is higher in sympatry than in allopatry. These data support the hypothesis that disruptive sexual selection on colour polymorphisms has caused sympatric speciation and help to explain the rapid radiation of haplochromine species flocks.     

Floristic biogeography of the Hawaiian Islands: influences of area, environment and paleogeography

Aim A detailed database of distributions and phylogenetic relationships of native Hawaiian flowering plant species is used to weigh the relative influences of environmental and historical factors on species numbers and endemism. Location The Hawaiian Islands are isolated in the North Pacific Ocean nearly 4000 km from the nearest continent and nearly as distant from the closest high islands, the Marquesas. The range of island sizes, environments, and geological histories within an extremely isolated archipelago make the Hawaiian Islands an ideal system in which to study spatial variation in species distributions and diversity. Because the biota is derived from colonization followed by extensive speciation, the role of evolution in shaping the regional species assemblage can be readily examined. Methods For whole islands and regions of each major habitat, species–area relationships were assessed. Residuals of species–area relationships were subjected to correlation analysis with measures of endemism, isolation, elevation and island age. Putative groups of descendents of each colonist from outside the Hawaiian Islands were considered phylogenetic lineages whose distributions were included in analyses. Results The species–area relationship is a prominent pattern among islands and among regions of each given habitat. Species number in each case correlates positively with number of endemics, number of lineages and number of species per lineage. For mesic and wet habitat regions, island age is more influential than area on species numbers, with older islands having more species, more single‐island endemics, and higher species : lineage ratios than their areas alone would predict. Main conclusions Because species numbers and endemism are closely tied to speciation in the Hawaiian flora, particularly in the most species‐rich phylogenetic lineages, individual islands’ histories are central in shaping their biota. The Maui Nui complex of islands (Maui, Moloka‘i, Lāna‘i and Kaho‘olawe), which formed a single large landmass during most of its history, is best viewed in terms of either the age or area of the complex as a whole, rather than the individual islands existing today.     

Neutral theory in community ecology

One of the central goals of community ecology is to understand the forces that maintain species diversity within communities. The traditional niche-assembly theory asserts that species live together in a community only when they differ from one another in resource uses. But this theory has some difficulties in explaining the diversity often observed in specie-rich communities such as tropical forests. As an alternative to the niche theory, Hubbell and other ecologists introduced a neutral model. Hubbell argues that the number of species in a community is controlled by species extinction and immigration or speciation of new species. Assuming that all individuals of all species in a trophically similar com-munity are ecologically equivalent, Hubbell's neutral theory predicts two important statistical distributions. One is the asymptotic log-series distribution for the metacommunities under point mutation speciation, and the other is the zero-sum multinomial distribution for both local communities under dispersal limitation and metacommunities under random fission speciation. Unlike the niche-assembly theory, the neutral theory takes similarity in species and individuals as a starting point for investigating species diversity. Based on the fundamental processes of birth, death, dispersal and spe-ciation, the neutral theory provided the first mechanistic explanation of species abundance distribution commonly observed in natural communities. Since the publication of the neutral theory, there has been much discussion about it, pro and con. In this paper, we summarize recent progress in the assumption, prediction and speciation mode of the neutral theory, including progress in the theory itself, tests about the assumption of the theory, prediction and speciation mode at the metacommunity level. We also suggest that the most important task in the future is to bridge the niche-assembly theory and the neutral theory, and to add species differences to the neutral theory and more stochasticity to the niche theory.     

On the relative importance of ecology and geographic isolation as drivers for differentiation of call types of red crossbill Loxia curvirostra in the Palearctic

Efforts to understand the process of speciation have been central to the research of biologists since the origin of evolutionary biology as a discipline. While it is well established that geographic isolation has played a key role in many speciation events, particularly in birds, there is ongoing debate about how frequent speciation is in the partial or complete absence of geographical isolation. In the red crossbill Loxia curvirostra, good arguments do exist for sympatric speciation processes. In this species, several classes of calls are clustered in distinct groups, so-called ‘call types', which mate assortatively. Often, several call types can be found at a single site, breeding and feeding next to each other. It has been hypothesized that red crossbill call types evolved by specialising in extracting seeds from cones of different conifer species. Alternatively, call types might have evolved in temporal geographic isolation. Within Europe, little is known about the distribution of the various call types and preferences for distinct food resources. In this study, we analysed the temporal and spatial occurrence of red crossbill call types in the Palearctic, investigated potential reasons for call-type composition at a site, and compared the occurrence of call types with the fructification of conifers. Call-type composition changed with site and season but hardly with conifer species. With our data, we could localise range areas of twelve different call types, which cannot be explained by conifer species occurrence. Therefore, we suggest that call types evolved in parapatry in most of the northern Palearctic region, and, although contradictory results exist from Iberia, we argue that differentiation might be driven by the same drivers there as well. Additionally, we discuss the potential influence of anthropogenic changes of forest composition and distribution on call types, which offers a unique possibility for future studies.     

Cell number and cellular composition in vermiform larvae of dicyemid mesozoans

Cell numbers and cellular composition were examined in vermiform larvae of 44 species of dicyemid mesozoans phylum Dicyemida belonging to six genera: Conocyema , Dicyema , Dicyemennea , Dicyemodeca , Microcyema and Pseudicyema . In addition, the literature on vermiform larvae of another 59 species was reviewed. Vermiform larvae typically have a constant number of peripheral cells that are species specific. Interspecific variations in the total number of peripheral cells range from 10 to 39. The most frequent number is either 22 or 23. Differences in the total number of peripheral cells are mostly due to differences in the number of trunk peripheral cells, such as parapolar cells, diapolar cells and uropolar cells. The body length of vermiform larvae is positively correlated with the number of trunk peripheral cells. Interspecific variations in the total number of trunk peripheral cells range from 2 to 31. The most frequent number is 14. In species with 14 trunk peripheral cells, individual variations of cell numbers were minimal. In species with more trunk peripheral cells, some individual variations appeared. Increase and decrease of trunk cell number might cause diversity of dicyemids, which is possibly related to speciation in these simple multicellular animals.     

Snails in the desert: Species diversification of Theba (Gastropoda: Helicidae) along the Atlantic coast of NW Africa

The spatial subdivision of species often plays a pivotal role in speciation. Across their entire range, species are rarely panmictic and crucial consequences of spatial subdivision are (1) random genetic drift including historical factors, (2) uniform selection, and (3) divergent selection. Each of these consequences may result in geographic variation and eventually reproductive isolation, but their relative importance in speciation is still unclear. In this study, we used a combination of genetic, morphological, and climatic data to obtain a comprehensive picture of differentiation among three closely related, parapatrically distributed taxa of the land snail genus Theba occurring along the Atlantic coasts of South Morocco and Western Sahara. We conducted Mantel and partial Mantel tests to relate phenotypic and genotypic variation of these species to geography and/or climate. As null hypothesis for an evolutionary scenario, we assumed nonadaptive speciation and expected a pattern of isolation by distance among taxa. Rejection of the null hypothesis would indicate isolation by environment due to adaptation. Generally, genetic drift plays an important role but is rarely considered as sole driver of speciation. It is the combination of drift and selection that predominantly drives speciation. This study, however, provides a potential example, in which nonadaptive speciation, that is, genetic drift, is apparently the main driver of shaping the diversity of Theba in NW Africa. Restriction of gene flow between populations caused by geographic isolation probably has played an important role. Climate oscillations during the Plio‐ and Pleistocene may have led to repeated ecological changes in NW Africa and disruptions of habitats promoting differentiation by geographic isolation. The inferred evolutionary scenario, however, did not fully explain the incongruence between the AFLP‐ and mtDNA‐tree topologies. This incongruence might indicate past hybridization among the studied Theba forms.     

The phenomenon of phylogenetic synhospitality in acariform mites (acari: acariformes)--the permanent parasites of vertebrates

The term synhospitality means the association of two or more closely related parasite species with one host species (Eichler, 1966). The cases of two or three synhospitalic species are known from the same host species, and especially ones where parasites were recorded from different parts of the host range, are quite common. The most ordinary reason causing synhospitality in permanent parasites is the host switching. Nevertheless, there are a number of synhospitality cases, where the parasite complex is monophyletic because evolved on a single host species. The special term--"phylogenetic synhospitality" (FS) is proposed for these cases of synhospitality. Most known cases of FS in acariform mites, permanent parasites of vertebrates, are analysed. It is found out that both astigmatan and prostigmatan parasite mites demonstrate a numbers of FS. The majority of these examples represent parasitism of two or three synhospitalic parasite species. Impressive examples of FS involving a number of synhospitalic species is shown by only astigmatan mites inhabiting the fur of mammals or plumage of birds. Most known examples involving four or more mite species are discussed: 51 mite species of the genus Schizocarpus (Chirodiscidae) parasitizing Castor fiber and C. canadensis (Castoridae); 6 species of Listrophorus spp. (Listrophoridae) from Ondatra zibethicus (Cricetidae); 23 species of Listrophoroides s. 1. (Atopomelidae) from Maxomys surifer (Muridae); 21 species of Cytostethum (Atomelidae) from Potorous tridactylus (Potoridae); 4 species of Listrophoroides (Afrolistrophoroides) from Malacomys longipes (Muridae); 7 species of Fainalges (Xolalgidae) from Aratinga holochlora (Psittacidae); 4 species of Zygepigynia (Pteronyssidae) from Chrysocolaptes lucidus (Picidae). The main reason of FS is that, in spite of the Fahrenholz's rule, the speciation of many parasites proceeds much more intensively than in their hosts because of the more rapid replacement of the parasitic generations. The first factor causing FS is the mite speciation it temporary segregated populations of the host (allopatric speciation). In this case, the "multispecies complexes" appeared after the subsequent reintegration of the host populations formerly isolated. The second factor is the speciation due to the specialization of mites to local microhabitats in the fur or plumage of host (sympatric or synxenic speciation). The second way of speciation is most characteristic for mites with highly specialized attaching structures. The phenomenon of FS more resides in ectoparasites of mammals rather than in feather mites in spite of much more structural complicacy of plumage rather than the fur. The high mobility of birds and wide dispersion of their new generations probably embarrass the process of sympatric speciation in their parasites. As a rule, only really significant geographical barriers play role for population isolation in birds. Thus, it could be concluded that two independent factors or their combination lead to FS. (i) The complex and/or disjunctive host range giving a possibility for allopatric speciation in parasites. (ii) The deep mite specialization to local microhabitats on the host body causing sympatric (synxenic) speciation. Fur of mammals and plumage of birds are very complicated in structure and microconditions and provide a considerable number of different microhabitats for mites inhabiting them. The prevalence of one of these two factors depends on the biological peculiarities of both parasites and their hosts. In mites with lesser specialized attaching organs, for example in atopomelids, allopatric speciation dominates. In mites with strongly specialized attaching organs, for example in listrophorids or chirodiscids, both pathways of speciation may take place. In feather mites, sympatric speciation should be more probable due to quite complicate and various structure of feathers in avian hosts. In fur mites, sympatric speciation is more likely in mites parasitizing hosts with peculiar ecology, for example in semiaquatic rodents possessing quite different fur structure in different parts of the body.     

Sequential colonization and diversification of Galapágos endemic land snail genus Bulimulus (Gastropoda, Stylommatophora)

Species richness on island or islandlike systems is a function of colonization, within-island speciation, and extinction. Here we evaluate the relative importance of the first two of these processes as a function of the biogeographical and ecological attributes of islands using the Galápagos endemic land snails of the genus Bulimulus, the most species-rich radiation of these islands. Species in this clade have colonized almost all major islands and are found in five of the six described vegetation zones. We use molecular phylogenetics (based on COI and ITS 1 sequence data) to infer the diversification patterns of extant species of Bulimulus, and multiple regression to investigate the causes of variation among islands in species richness. Maximum-likelihood, Bayesian, and maximum-parsimony analyses yield well-resolved trees with similar topologies. The phylogeny obtained supports the progression rule hypothesis, with species found on older emerged islands connecting at deeper nodes. For all but two island species assemblages we find support for only one or two colonization events, indicating that within-island speciation has an important role in the formation of species on these islands. Even though speciation through colonization is not common, island insularity (distance to nearest major island) is a significant predictor of species richness resulting from interisland colonization alone. However, island insularity has no effect on the overall bulimulid species richness per island. Habitat diversity (measured as plant species diversity), island elevation, and island area, all of which are indirect measures of niche space, are strong predictors of overall bulimulid land snail species richness. Island age is also an important independent predictor of overall species richness, with older islands harboring more species than younger islands. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the diversification of Galápagos bulimulid land snails has been driven by a combination of geographic factors (island age, size, and location), which affect colonization patterns, and ecological factors, such as plant species diversity, that foster within-island speciation.     

The Emerging Era of Novel Tropical Forests

In 1966 Eugene P. Odum delivered a speech before the Ecological Society of America that transformed the way ecologists looked at succession. His comparison of mature and successional systems lead ecologists to place secondary forests in an inferior position relative to mature ones to the point that today, prominent tropical biologists argue for and against the conservation value of secondary forests. Nevertheless, we live in the era of secondary forests that is rapidly giving way to a new era of novel tropical forests. Research in Puerto Rico documents the emergence of novel forests, which are different in terms of species composition, dominance, and relative importance of species from forests that were present before the island was deforested. These novel forests emerged without assistance. They are a natural response to the new environmental conditions created by human activity. Natural processes have remixed or reassembled native and introduced plant and animal species into novel communities adapted to anthropogenic environmental conditions. Novel forests are expected to protect soils, cycle nutrients, support wildlife, store carbon, maintain watershed functions, and mitigate species extinctions. The dawn of the age of tropical novel forests is upon us and must not be ignored.     

Neutral theory in community ecology

One of the central goals of community ecology is to understand the forces that maintain species diversity within communities. The traditional niche-assembly theory asserts that species live together in a community only when they differ from one another in resource uses. But this theory has some difficulties in explaining the diversity often observed in specie-rich communities such as tropical forests. As an alternative to the niche theory, Hubbell and other ecologists introduced a neutral model. Hubbell argues that the number of species in a community is controlled by species extinction and immigration or speciation of new species. Assuming that all individuals of all species in a trophically similar community are ecologically equivalent, Hubbell’s neutral theory predicts two important statistical distributions. One is the asymptotic log-series distribution for the metacommunities under point mutation speciation, and the other is the zero-sum multinomial distribution for both local communities under dispersal limitation and metacommunities under random fission speciation. Unlike the niche-assembly theory, the neutral theory takes similarity in species and individuals as a starting point for investigating species diversity. Based on the fundamental processes of birth, death, dispersal and speciation, the neutral theory provided the first mechanistic explanation of species abundance distribution commonly observed in natural communities. Since the publication of the neutral theory, there has been much discussion about it, pro and con. In this paper, we summarize recent progress in the assumption, prediction and speciation mode of the neutral theory, including progress in the theory itself, tests about the assumption of the theory, prediction and speciation mode at the metacommunity level. We also suggest that the most important task in the future is to bridge the niche-assembly theory and the neutral theory, and to add species differences to the neutral theory and more stochasticity to the niche theory. __________ Translated from Journal of Plant Ecology, 2006, 30(5): 868–877 [译自:植物生态学报]     

Why do species exist? Insights from sexuals and asexuals

Why does life diversify into the more or less discrete entities we recognise as species? Two main explanations have been proposed: i) species are a consequence of adaptation to different ecological niches, ii) species are a consequence of sexual reproduction and reproductive isolation. Phylogenetic studies of case-study groups can provide insights into the relative importance of divergent selection and isolation for speciation, but it can be difficult to infer causes of speciation unambiguously. The example of North American tiger beetles from the genus Cicindela is discussed. An alternative approach is to compare diversification between related sexual and asexual taxa to infer the relative importance of the two explanations. We outline expected patterns of diversification in sexual and asexual lineages under different scenarios using coalescent theory. Whether sexuals or asexuals diversify to a greater extent depends on the balance among various stages of diversification, particularly on the effects of sexual reproduction on rates of adaptive evolution. Rotifers offer a unique system to test these ideas, allowing comparison of patterns of genetic and functional morphological diversification in sexual (bdelloid) and asexual (monogonont) clades.     

THE BIOLOGY OF SPECIATION

Since Darwin published the “Origin,” great progress has been made in our understanding of speciation mechanisms. The early investigations by Mayr and Dobzhansky linked Darwin's view of speciation by adaptive divergence to the evolution of reproductive isolation, and thus provided a framework for studying the origin of species. However, major controversies and questions remain, including: When is speciation nonecological? Under what conditions does geographic isolation constitute a reproductive isolating barrier? and How do we estimate the “importance” of different isolating barriers? Here, we address these questions, providing historical background and offering some new perspectives. A topic of great recent interest is the role of ecology in speciation. “Ecological speciation” is defined as the case in which divergent selection leads to reproductive isolation, with speciation under uniform selection, polyploid speciation, and speciation by genetic drift defined as “nonecological.” We review these proposed cases of nonecological speciation and conclude that speciation by uniform selection and polyploidy normally involve ecological processes. Furthermore, because selection can impart reproductive isolation both directly through traits under selection and indirectly through pleiotropy and linkage, it is much more effective in producing isolation than genetic drift. We thus argue that natural selection is a ubiquitous part of speciation, and given the many ways in which stochastic and deterministic factors may interact during divergence, we question whether the ecological speciation concept is useful. We also suggest that geographic isolation caused by adaptation to different habitats plays a major, and largely neglected, role in speciation. We thus provide a framework for incorporating geographic isolation into the biological species concept (BSC) by separating ecological from historical processes that govern species distributions, allowing for an estimate of geographic isolation based upon genetic differences between taxa. Finally, we suggest that the individual and relative contributions of all potential barriers be estimated for species pairs that have recently achieved species status under the criteria of the BSC. Only in this way will it be possible to distinguish those barriers that have actually contributed to speciation from those that have accumulated after speciation is complete. We conclude that ecological adaptation is the major driver of reproductive isolation, and that the term “biology of speciation,” as proposed by Mayr, remains an accurate and useful characterization of the diversity of speciation mechanisms.     

Testing for equal rates of cladogenesis in diverse taxa

Taxa differ widely in numbers of species, which may be due either to chance alone or to factors that cause differences in speciation and extinction rates between taxa. To test whether an observed distribution of species over taxa differs from the distribution expected from chance alone, one must take into account that neither speciation nor extinction rates are known. This paper introduces a way to estimate speciation and extinction probabilities from the distribution of extant species over families and to test whether the observed distribution is different from expected. Application of this procedure to the distributions of bird, hexapod, primate, and angiosperm species over taxa provides statistical evidence of differences in rates of cladogenesis between taxa.