Internalizing psychopathology and all‐cause mortality: a comparison of transdiagnostic vs. diagnosis‐based risk prediction

Previous studies have documented the utility of a transdiagnostic internalizing factor in predicting important future outcomes (e.g., subsequent mental disorder diagnoses). To date, however, no study has investigated whether an internalizing factor predicts mortality risk. Also, while pre­vious studies of mortality risk have emphasized its associations with particular internalizing disorders, no study has assessed how the transdiagnostic internalizing factor vs. disorder‐specific variance differently predict that risk. The primary aims of this study were to explore: a) whether the internalizing factor predicts mortality risk, b) whether particular internalizing psychopathologies uniquely predict mortality risk over and beyond the transdiagnostic internalizing factor, and c) whether there is a significant interaction of internalizing with self‐reported health in the prediction of mortality risk. We utilized a large national sample of American adults from the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS), a longitudinal study that examined midlife development of individuals across multiple waves between 1995 and 2015. Data were analyzed for the 6,329 participants who completed the phone interview and self‐administered questionnaire in MIDUS 1 (1995‐1996) and were then followed up until October 31, 2015 or until death. To investigate the association between internalizing and mortality risk, we used the semi‐parametric proportional hazards Cox model, where survival time was regressed on a latent internalizing factor. Overall findings indicate that a transdiagnostic internalizing factor significantly predicts mortality risk over a 20‐year period (hazard ratio, HR=1.12, 95% CI: 1.05‐1.16, p<0.01) and that internalizing outperforms disorder‐specific variance (e.g., depression‐specific variance) in the prediction of that risk. Further, there was a significant interaction between transdiagnostic internalizing and self‐reported health, whereby internalizing psychopathology had a specific association with early death for individuals with excellent self‐reported health condition (HR=1.50, 95% CI: 1.17‐1.84, p<0.05). This highlights the clinical utility of using the transdiagnostic internalizing factor for prediction of an important future outcome, and supports the argument that internalizing psychopathology can be a meaningful liability to explore in public health practice.     

Increased risk for COVID‐19 breakthrough infection in fully vaccinated patients with substance use disorders in the United States between December 2020 and August 2021

Individuals with substance use disorders (SUDs) are at increased risk for COVID‐19 infection and for adverse outcomes of the infection. Though vaccines are highly effective against COVID‐19, their effectiveness in individuals with SUDs might be curtailed by compromised immune status and a greater likelihood of exposures, added to the waning vaccine immunity and the new SARS‐CoV‐2 variants. In a population‐based cohort study, we assessed the risk, time trends, outcomes and disparities of COVID‐19 breakthrough infection in fully vaccinated SUD patients starting 14 days after completion of vaccination. The study included 579,372 individuals (30,183 with a diagnosis of SUD and 549,189 without such a diagnosis) who were fully vaccinated between December 2020 and August 2021, and had not contracted COVID‐19 infection prior to vaccination. We used the TriNetX Analytics network platform to access de‐identified electronic health records from 63 health care organizations in the US. Among SUD patients, the risk for breakthrough infection ranged from 6.8% for tobacco use disorder to 7.8% for cannabis use disorder, all significantly higher than the 3.6% in non‐SUD population (p<0.001). Breakthrough infection risk remained significantly higher after controlling for demographics (age, gender, ethnicity) and vaccine types for all SUD subtypes, except for tobacco use disorder, and was highest for cocaine and cannabis use disorders (hazard ratio, HR=2.06, 95% CI: 1.30‐3.25 for cocaine; HR=1.92, 95% CI: 1.39‐2.66 for cannabis). When we matched SUD and non‐SUD individuals for lifetime comorbidities and adverse socioeconomic determinants of health, the risk for breakthrough infection no longer differed between these populations, except for patients with cannabis use disorder, who remained at increased risk (HR=1.55, 95% CI: 1.22‐1.99). The risk for breakthrough infection was higher in SUD patients who received the Pfizer than the Moderna vaccine (HR=1.49, 95% CI: 1.31‐1.69). In the vaccinated SUD population, the risk for hospitalization was 22.5% for the breakthrough cohort and 1.6% for the non‐breakthrough cohort (risk ratio, RR=14.4, 95% CI: 10.19‐20.42), while the risk for death was 1.7% and 0.5% respectively (RR=3.5, 95% CI: 1.74‐7.05). No significant age, gender and ethnic disparities for breakthrough infection were observed in vaccinated SUD patients. These data suggest that fully vaccinated SUD individuals are at higher risk for breakthrough COVID‐19 infection, and this is largely due to their higher prevalence of comorbidities and adverse socioeconomic determinants of health compared with non‐SUD individuals. The high frequency of comorbidities in SUD patients is also likely to contribute to their high rates of hospitalization and death following breakthrough infection.     

Use of low‐dose quetiapine increases the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events: results from a nationwide active comparator‐controlled cohort study

At standard doses used for schizophrenia or bipolar disorder, quetiapine has been associated with weight gain and increased levels of triglycerides, to­tal cholesterol and low‐density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, which are risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, this drug is also commonly used off‐label at low doses for anxiolytic or hypnotic purposes, and its cardiovascular safety at these doses is unknown. We aimed to assess the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events with use of low‐dose quetiapine compared to use of Z‐drug hypnotics in a nationwide, active comparator‐controlled cohort study. The cohort included new users of either drugs in Denmark from 2003 to 2017, aged 18‐85 years, without history of ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, cancer, and severe mental illness. The main outcome was the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events, defined as non‐fatal myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) were used as an alternative comparator in sensitivity analyses. Altogether, we compared 60,566 low‐dose quetiapine users with 454,567 Z‐drug users, followed for 890,198 person‐years in intent‐to‐treat analysis, and 330,334 person‐years in as‐treated analysis. In intention‐to‐treat analysis, low‐dose quetiapine was associated with an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR=1.13, 95% CI: 1.02‐1.24, p=0.014) and cardiovascular death (aHR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.11‐1.43, p<0.001). In as‐treated analysis, continuous low‐dose quetiapine use was associated with increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (aHR=1.52, 95% CI: 1.35‐1.70, p<0.001), non‐fatal ischemic stroke (aHR=1.37, 95% CI: 1.13‐1.68, p=0.002) and cardiovascular death (aHR=1.90, 95% CI: 1.64‐2.19, p<0.001). The risk of major adverse cardiovascular events was greater in women (aHR=1.28, p=0.02) and those aged ≥65 years at initiation (aHR=1.24, p<0.001). Compared to SSRIs, low‐dose quetiapine use was associated with an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (aHR=1.42, p<0.001), non‐fatal ischemic stroke (aHR=1.27, p=0.0028) and cardiovascular death (aHR=1.72, p<0.001). So, we conclude that the use of low‐dose quetiapine is associated with an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, especially in women and the elderly. On the basis of these findings, we suggest that use of off‐label low‐dose quetiapine for sedative or hypnotic purposes should be discouraged.     

Mortality in people with schizophrenia: a systematic review and meta‐analysis of relative risk and aggravating or attenuating factors

People with schizophrenia die 15‐20 years prematurely. Understanding mortality risk and aggravating/attenuating factors is essential to reduce this gap. We conducted a systematic review and random‐effects meta‐analysis of prospective and retrospective, nationwide and targeted cohort studies assessing mortality risk in people with schizophrenia versus the general population or groups matched for physical comorbidities or groups with different psychiatric disorders, also assessing moderators. Primary outcome was all‐cause mortality risk ratio (RR); key secondary outcomes were mortality due to suicide and natural causes. Other secondary outcomes included any other specific‐cause mortality. Publication bias, subgroup and meta‐regression analyses, and quality assessment (Newcastle‐Ottawa Scale) were conducted. Across 135 studies spanning from 1957 to 2021 (schizophrenia: N=4,536,447; general population controls: N=1,115,600,059; other psychiatric illness controls: N=3,827,955), all‐cause mortality was increased in people with schizophrenia versus any non‐schizophrenia control group (RR=2.52, 95% CI: 2.38‐2.68, n=79), with the largest risk in first‐episode (RR=7.43, 95% CI: 4.02‐13.75, n=2) and incident (i.e., earlier‐phase) schizophrenia (RR=3.52, 95% CI: 3.09‐4.00, n=7) versus the general population. Specific‐cause mortality was highest for suicide or injury‐poisoning or undetermined non‐natural cause (RR=9.76‐8.42), followed by pneumonia among natural causes (RR=7.00, 95% CI: 6.79‐7.23), decreasing through infectious or endocrine or respiratory or urogenital or diabetes causes (RR=3 to 4), to alcohol or gastrointestinal or renal or nervous system or cardio‐cerebrovascular or all natural causes (RR=2 to 3), and liver or cerebrovascular, or breast or colon or pancreas or any cancer causes (RR=1.33 to 1.96). All‐cause mortality increased slightly but significantly with median study year (beta=0.0009, 95% CI: 0.001‐0.02, p=0.02). Individuals with schizophrenia <40 years of age had increased all‐cause and suicide‐related mortality compared to those ≥40 years old, and a higher percentage of females increased suicide‐related mortality risk in incident schizophrenia samples. All‐cause mortality was higher in incident than prevalent schizophrenia (RR=3.52 vs. 2.86, p=0.009). Comorbid substance use disorder increased all‐cause mortality (RR=1.62, 95% CI: 1.47‐1.80, n=3). Antipsychotics were protective against all‐cause mortality versus no antipsychotic use (RR=0.71, 95% CI: 0.59‐0.84, n=11), with largest effects for second‐generation long‐acting injectable anti­psychotics (SGA‐LAIs) (RR=0.39, 95% CI: 0.27‐0.56, n=3), clozapine (RR=0.43, 95% CI: 0.34‐0.55, n=3), any LAI (RR=0.47, 95% CI: 0.39‐0.58, n=2), and any SGA (RR=0.53, 95% CI: 0.44‐0.63, n=4). Antipsychotics were also protective against natural cause‐related mortality, yet first‐generation antipsychotics (FGAs) were associated with increased mortality due to suicide and natural cause in incident schizophrenia. Higher study quality and number of variables used to adjust the analyses moderated larger natural‐cause mortality risk, and more recent study year moderated larger protective effects of antipsychotics. These results indicate that the excess mortality in schizophrenia is associated with several modifiable factors. Targeting comorbid substance abuse, long‐term maintenance antipsychotic treatment and appropriate/earlier use of SGA‐LAIs and clozapine could reduce this mortality gap.     

Initial treatment choices to achieve sustained response in major depression: a systematic review and network meta‐analysis

Major depression is often a relapsing disorder. It is therefore important to start its treatment with therapies that maximize the chance of not only getting the patients well but also keeping them well. We examined the associations between initial treatments and sustained response by conducting a network meta‐analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in which adult patients with major depression were randomized to acute treatment with a psychotherapy (PSY), a protocolized antidepressant pharmacotherapy (PHA), their combination (COM), standard treatment in primary or secondary care (STD), or pill placebo, and were then followed up through a maintenance phase. By design, acute phase treatment could be continued into the maintenance phase, switched to another treatment or followed by discretionary treatment. We included 81 RCTs, with 13,722 participants. Sustained response was defined as responding to the acute treatment and subsequently having no depressive relapse through the maintenance phase (mean duration: 42.2±16.2 weeks, range 24‐104 weeks). We extracted the data reported at the time point closest to 12 months. COM resulted in more sustained response than PHA, both when these treatments were continued into the maintenance phase (OR=2.52, 95% CI: 1.66‐3.85) and when they were followed by discretionary treatment (OR=1.80, 95% CI: 1.21‐2.67). The same applied to COM in comparison with STD (OR=2.90, 95% CI: 1.68‐5.01 when COM was continued into the maintenance phase; OR=1.97, 95% CI: 1.51‐2.58 when COM was followed by discretionary treatment). PSY also kept the patients well more often than PHA, both when these treatments were continued into the maintenance phase (OR=1.53, 95% CI: 1.00‐2.35) and when they were followed by discretionary treatment (OR=1.66, 95% CI: 1.13‐2.44). The same applied to PSY compared with STD (OR=1.76, 95% CI: 0.97‐3.21 when PSY was continued into the maintenance phase; OR=1.83, 95% CI: 1.20‐2.78 when PSY was followed by discretionary treatment). Given the average sustained response rate of 29% on STD, the advantages of PSY or COM over PHA or STD translated into risk differences ranging from 12 to 16 percentage points. We conclude that PSY and COM have more enduring effects than PHA. Clinical guidelines on the initial treatment choice for depression may need to be updated accordingly.     

Association between IGF‐1 levels ranges and all‐cause mortality: A meta‐analysis

The association between IGF‐1 levels and mortality in humans is complex with low levels being associated with both low and high mortality. The present meta‐analysis investigates this complex relationship between IGF‐1 and all‐cause mortality in prospective cohort studies. A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, and Cochrane Library up to September 2019. Published studies were eligible for the meta‐analysis if they had a prospective cohort design, a hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for two or more categories of IGF‐1 and were conducted among adults. A random‐effects model with a restricted maximum likelihood heterogeneity variance estimator was used to find combined HRs for all‐cause mortality. Nineteen studies involving 30,876 participants were included. Meta‐analysis of the 19 eligible studies showed that with respect to the low IGF‐1 category, higher IGF‐1 was not associated with increased risk of all‐cause mortality (HR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.68–1.05). Dose–response analysis revealed a U‐shaped relation between IGF‐1 and mortality HR. Pooled results comparing low vs. middle IGF‐1 showed a significant increase of all‐cause mortality (HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.14–1.57), as well as comparing high vs. middle IGF‐1 categories (HR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.06–1.44). Finally, we provide data on the association between IGF‐1 levels and the intake of proteins, carbohydrates, certain vitamins/minerals, and specific foods. Both high and low levels of IGF‐1 increase mortality risk, with a specific 120–160 ng/ml range being associated with the lowest mortality. These findings can explain the apparent controversy related to the association between IGF‐1 levels and mortality.     

Risk and protective factors for mental disorders beyond genetics: an evidence‐based atlas

Decades of research have revealed numerous risk factors for mental disorders beyond genetics, but their consistency and magnitude remain uncer­tain. We conducted a “meta‐umbrella” systematic synthesis of umbrella reviews, which are systematic reviews of meta‐analyses of individual studies, by searching international databases from inception to January 1, 2021. We included umbrella reviews on non‐purely genetic risk or protective factors for any ICD/DSM mental disorders, applying an established classification of the credibility of the evidence: class I (convincing), class II (highly suggestive), class III (suggestive), class IV (weak). Sensitivity analyses were conducted on prospective studies to test for temporality (reverse causation), TRANSD criteria were applied to test transdiagnosticity of factors, and A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) was employed to address the quality of meta‐analyses. Fourteen eligible umbrella reviews were retrieved, summarizing 390 meta‐analyses and 1,180 associations between putative risk or protective factors and mental disorders. We included 176 class I to III evidence associations, relating to 142 risk/protective factors. The most robust risk factors (class I or II, from prospective designs) were 21. For dementia, they included type 2 diabetes mellitus (risk ratio, RR from 1.54 to 2.28), depression (RR from 1.65 to 1.99) and low frequency of social contacts (RR=1.57). For opioid use disorders, the most robust risk factor was tobacco smoking (odds ratio, OR=3.07). For non‐organic psychotic disorders, the most robust risk factors were clinical high risk state for psychosis (OR=9.32), cannabis use (OR=3.90), and childhood adversities (OR=2.80). For depressive disorders, they were widowhood (RR=5.59), sexual dysfunction (OR=2.71), three (OR=1.99) or four‐five (OR=2.06) metabolic factors, childhood physical (OR=1.98) and sexual (OR=2.42) abuse, job strain (OR=1.77), obesity (OR=1.35), and sleep disturbances (RR=1.92). For autism spectrum disorder, the most robust risk factor was maternal overweight pre/during pregnancy (RR=1.28). For attention‐deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), they were maternal pre‐pregnancy obesity (OR=1.63), maternal smoking during pregnancy (OR=1.60), and maternal overweight pre/during pregnancy (OR=1.28). Only one robust protective factor was detected: high physical activity (hazard ratio, HR=0.62) for Alzheimer’s disease. In all, 32.9% of the associations were of high quality, 48.9% of medium quality, and 18.2% of low quality. Transdiagnostic class I‐III risk/protective factors were mostly involved in the early neurodevelopmental period. The evidence‐based atlas of key risk and protective factors identified in this study represents a benchmark for advancing clinical characterization and research, and for expanding early intervention and preventive strategies for mental disorders.     

Dopamine and glutamate in individuals at high risk for psychosis: a meta‐analysis of in vivo imaging findings and their variability compared to controls

Dopaminergic and glutamatergic dysfunction is believed to play a central role in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. However, it is unclear if abnormalities predate the onset of schizophrenia in individuals at high clinical or genetic risk for the disorder. We systematically reviewed and meta‐analyzed studies that have used neuroimaging to investigate dopamine and glutamate function in individuals at increased clinical or genetic risk for psychosis. EMBASE, PsycINFO and Medline were searched form January 1, 1960 to November 26, 2020. Inclusion criteria were molecular imaging measures of striatal presynaptic dopaminergic function, striatal dopamine receptor availability, or glutamate function. Separate meta‐analyses were conducted for genetic high‐risk and clinical high‐risk individuals. We calculated standardized mean differences between high‐risk individuals and controls, and investigated whether the variability of these measures differed between the two groups. Forty‐eight eligible studies were identified, including 1,288 high‐risk individuals and 1,187 controls. Genetic high‐risk individuals showed evidence of increased thalamic glutamate + glutamine (Glx) concentrations (Hedges’ g=0.36, 95% CI: 0.12‐0.61, p=0.003). There were no significant differences between high‐risk individuals and controls in striatal presynaptic dopaminergic function, striatal D2/D3 receptor availability, prefrontal cortex glutamate or Glx, hippocampal glutamate or Glx, or basal ganglia Glx. In the meta‐analysis of variability, genetic high‐risk individuals showed reduced variability of striatal D2/D3 receptor availability compared to controls (log coefficient of variation ratio, CVR=–0.24, 95% CI: –0.46 to –0.02, p=0.03). Meta‐regressions of publication year against effect size demonstrated that the magnitude of differences between clinical high‐risk individuals and controls in presynaptic dopaminergic function has decreased over time (estimate=–0.06, 95% CI: –0.11 to –0.007, p=0.025). Thus, other than thalamic glutamate concentrations, no neurochemical measures were significantly different between individuals at risk for psychosis and controls. There was also no evidence of increased variability of dopamine or glutamate measures in high‐risk individuals compared to controls. Significant heterogeneity, however, exists between studies, which does not allow to rule out the existence of clinically meaningful differences.     

The antagonistic pleiotropy of insulin‐like growth factor 1

While insulin‐like growth factor‐1 (IGF‐1) is a well‐established modulator of aging and longevity in model organisms, its role in humans has been controversial. In this study, we used the UK Biobank (n = 440,185) to resolve previous ambiguities in the relationship between serum IGF‐1 levels and clinical disease. We examined prospective associations of serum IGF‐1 with mortality, dementia, vascular disease, diabetes, osteoporosis, and cancer, finding two generalized patterns: First, IGF‐1 interacts with age to modify risk in a manner consistent with antagonistic pleiotropy; younger individuals with high IGF‐1 are protected from disease, while older individuals with high IGF‐1 are at increased risk for incident disease or death. Second, the association between IGF‐1 and risk is generally U‐shaped, indicating that both high and low levels of IGF‐1 may be detrimental. With the exception of a more uniformly positive relationship between IGF‐1 and cancer, these effects were remarkably consistent across a wide range of conditions, providing evidence for a unifying pathway that determines risk for most age‐associated diseases. These data suggest that IGF‐1 signaling could be harmful in older adults, who may actually benefit from the attenuation of biological growth pathways.     

Potential for prediction of psychosis and bipolar disorder in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services: a longitudinal register study of all people born in Finland in 1987

Current strategies to predict psychosis identify only a small proportion of individuals at risk. Additional strategies are needed to increase capacity for pre­diction and prevention of serious mental illness, ideally during childhood and adolescence. One possible approach would be to investigate systems in which psychosis risk factors are concentrated during childhood. One notable such system is represented by Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS). Although psychotic disorders are uncommon in CAMHS, many risk factors for psychosis are highly prevalent in young people who enter this system. We hypothesized, therefore, that youth attending CAMHS would be a high‐risk group for psychosis if followed into adulthood and, furthermore, that CAMHS systems would capture a substantial proportion of future psychosis cases. We constructed a total population cohort study of all Finns born in 1987 (N=55,875), linking together extensive register data on health care contacts from birth through age 28 years. We identified all individuals diagnosed with a psychotic or bipolar disorder by age 28 (N=1,785). The risk of psychosis/bipolar disorder by age 28 years was 1.8% for individuals who had not attended CAMHS during childhood or adolescence, whereas it was 12.8% for those with a history of any outpatient CAMHS contact (odds ratio, OR=7.9, 95% CI: 7.2‐8.7). Furthermore, the risk of psychosis/bipolar disorder by age 28 years was 2.3% for individuals without a history of inpatient CAMHS admission, whereas it was 24.0% for those with a history of inpatient CAMHS admission (OR=13.3, 95% CI: 11.9‐14.9), and 36.5% for those with a history of inpatient CAMHS admission in adolescence (age 13‐17 years) (OR=24.2, 95% CI: 21.2‐27.6). Individuals who attended CAMHS but received no mental disorder diagnosis had an equally high risk of subsequently developing a psychosis/bipolar disorder as individuals who did receive a diagnosis (OR=0.9, 99.5% CI: 0.7‐1.1). Compared to other CAMHS attendees, individuals who developed psychosis or bipolar disorder were more likely to have had an initial CAMHS diagnosis of depressive or other mood disorder (OR=2.3, 99.5% CI: 1.6‐3.0) and disruptive behaviour disorder (OR=1.7, 99.5% CI: 1.2‐2.5). Of all psychosis/bipolar diagnoses by age 28 years, 50.2% occurred in individuals who had, at some point in childhood or adolescence, attended CAMHS, indicating that CAMHS represent not only a high‐risk but also a high‐capacity system for prediction of psychosis/bipolar disorder. These findings suggest an enormous, untapped potential for large‐scale psychosis/bipolar disorder prediction and prevention research within existing specialist CAMHS.     

The Horyzons project: a randomized controlled trial of a novel online social therapy to maintain treatment effects from specialist first‐episode psychosis services

This study aimed to determine whether, following two years of specialized support for first‐episode psychosis, the addition of a new digital intervention (Horyzons) to treatment as usual (TAU) for 18 months was more effective than 18 months of TAU alone. We conducted a single‐blind randomized controlled trial. Participants were people with first‐episode psychosis (N=170), aged 16‐27 years, in clinical remission and nearing discharge from a specialized service. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive Horyzons plus TAU (N=86) or TAU alone (N=84) between October 2013 and January 2017. Horyzons is a novel, comprehensive digital platform merging: peer‐to‐peer social networking; theory‐driven and evidence‐informed therapeutic interventions targeting social functioning, vocational recovery and relapse prevention; expert clinician and vocational support; and peer support and moderation. TAU involved transfer to primary or tertiary community mental health services. The primary outcome was social functioning at 18 months as measured by the Personal and Social Performance Scale (PSP). Forty‐seven participants (55.5%) in the Horyzons plus TAU group logged on for at least 6 months, and 40 (47.0%) for at least 9 months. Social functioning remained high and stable in both groups from baseline to 18‐month follow‐up, with no evidence of significant between‐group differences (PSP mean difference: –0.29, 95% CI: –4.20 to 3.63, p=0.77). Participants in the Horyzons group had a 5.5 times greater increase in their odds to find employment or enroll in education compared with those in TAU (odds ratio, OR=5.55, 95% CI: 1.09‐28.23, p=0.04), with evidence of a dose‐response effect. Moreover, participants in TAU were twice as likely to visit emergency services compared to those in the Horyzons group (39% vs. 19%; OR=0.31, 95% CI: 0.11‐0.86, p=0.03, number needed to treat, NNT=5). There was a non‐significant trend for lower hospitalizations due to psychosis in the Horyzons group vs. TAU (13% vs. 27%; OR=0.36, 95% CI: 0.11‐1.08, p=0.07, NNT=7). So, although we did not find a significant effect of Horyzons on social functioning compared with TAU, the intervention was effective in improving vocational or educational attainment, a core component of social recovery, and in reducing usage of hospital emergency services, a key aim of specialized first‐episode psychosis services. Horyzons holds significant promise as an engaging and sustainable intervention to provide effective vocational and relapse prevention support for young people with first‐episode psychosis beyond specialist services.     

Genetic trade‐offs between complex diseases and longevity

Longevity was influenced by many complex diseases and traits. However, the relationships between human longevity and genetic risks of complex diseases were not broadly studied. Here, we constructed polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for 225 complex diseases/traits and evaluated their relationships with human longevity in a cohort with 2178 centenarians and 2299 middle‐aged individuals. Lower genetic risks of stroke and hypotension were observed in centenarians, while higher genetic risks of schizophrenia (SCZ) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) were detected in long‐lived individuals. We further stratified PRSs into cell‐type groups and significance‐level groups. The results showed that the immune component of SCZ genetic risk was positively linked to longevity, and the renal component of T2D genetic risk was the most deleterious. Additionally, SNPs with very small p‐values (p ≤ 1x10^‐5) for SCZ and T2D were negatively correlated with longevity. While for the less significant SNPs (1x10^‐5 < p ≤ 0.05), their effects on disease and longevity were positively correlated. Overall, we identified genetically informed positive and negative factors for human longevity, gained more insights on the accumulation of disease risk alleles during evolution, and provided evidence for the theory of genetic trade‐offs between complex diseases and longevity.     

Age‐related DNA methylation on Y chromosome and their associations with total mortality among Chinese males

In view of the sex differences in aging‐related diseases, sex chromosomes may play a critical role during aging process. This study aimed to identify age‐related DNA methylation changes on Y chromosome (ChrY). A two‐stage study design was conducted in this study. The discovery stage contained 419 Chinese males, including 205 from the Wuhan‐Zhuhai cohort panel, 107 from the coke oven workers panel, and 107 from the Shiyan panel. The validation stage contained 587 Chinese males from the Dongfeng‐Tongji sub‐cohort. We used the Illumina HumanMethylation BeadChip to determine genome‐wide DNA methylation in peripheral blood of the study participants. The associations between age and methylation levels of ChrY CpGs were investigated by using linear regression models with adjustment for potential confounders. Further, associations of age‐related ChrY CpGs with all‐cause mortality were tested in the validation stage. We identified the significant associations of 41 ChrY CpGs with age at false discovery rate (FDR) <0.05 in the discovery stage, and 18 of them were validated in the validation stage (p < 0.05). Meta‐analysis of both stages confirmed the robust positive associations of 14 CpGs and negative associations of 4 CpGs with age (FDR<0.05). Among them, cg03441493 and cg17816615 were significantly associated with all‐cause mortality risk [HR(95% CI) = 1.37 (1.04, 1.79) and 0.70 (0.54, 0.93), respectively]. Our results highlighted the importance of ChrY CpGs on male aging.     

All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality after Long-Term Sickness Absence for Psychiatric Disorders: A Prospective Cohort Study

Objective

The aim was to examine if long-term psychiatric sickness absence was associated with all-cause and diagnosis-specific (cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and suicide) mortality for the period 1990–2007. An additional aim was to examine these associations for psychiatric sickness absence in 1990 and 2000, with follow-up on mortality during 1991–1997 and 2001–2007, separately.

Methods

Employees within municipalities and county councils, 244,990 individuals in 1990 and 764,137 individuals in 2000, were followed up to 2007 through register linkages. Analyses were conducted with flexible parametric survival models comparing sickness absentees due to psychiatric diagnoses (>90 days) with those not receiving sick leave benefit.

Results

Long-term sickness absence for psychiatric disorders was associated with an increased risk of mortality due to all causes; CVD; cancer (smoking and non-smoking related); and suicide during the period 1990–2007. After full adjustment for socio-demographic covariates and previous inpatient care due to somatic and psychiatric diagnoses, these associations remained significant for all-cause mortality (Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI)): HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.3–1.8; CVD: HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.0–1.9, and suicide: HR 3.84, 95% CI 2.4–6.1. For both cohorts 1990 and 2000 estimates point in the same direction. For the time-period 2000–2007, we found increased risks of mortality in the fully adjusted model due to all causes: HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.2–1.7; CVD: HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.2–2.7; overall cancer: HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.0–1.7; and suicide: HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.3–3.7.

Conclusion

Long-term sickness absence for psychiatric disorders predicted premature mortality from all-causes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and suicide.     

Biological mechanisms of aging predict age‐related disease co‐occurrence in patients

Genetic, environmental, and pharmacological interventions into the aging process can confer resistance to multiple age‐related diseases in laboratory animals, including rhesus monkeys. These findings imply that individual mechanisms of aging might contribute to the co‐occurrence of age‐related diseases in humans and could be targeted to prevent these conditions simultaneously. To address this question, we text mined 917,645 literature abstracts followed by manual curation and found strong, non‐random associations between age‐related diseases and aging mechanisms in humans, confirmed by gene set enrichment analysis of GWAS data. Integration of these associations with clinical data from 3.01 million patients showed that age‐related diseases associated with each of five aging mechanisms were more likely than chance to be present together in patients. Genetic evidence revealed that innate and adaptive immunity, the intrinsic apoptotic signaling pathway and activity of the ERK1/2 pathway were associated with multiple aging mechanisms and diverse age‐related diseases. Mechanisms of aging hence contribute both together and individually to age‐related disease co‐occurrence in humans and could potentially be targeted accordingly to prevent multimorbidity.     

Prognostic and predictive role of a metabolic rate‐limiting enzyme signature in hepatocellular carcinoma

ObjectivesAbnormal expression of metabolic rate‐limiting enzymes drives the occurrence and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to elucidate the comprehensive model of metabolic rate‐limiting enzymes associated with the prognosis of HCC.Materials and MethodsHCC animal model and TCGA project were used to screen out differentially expressed metabolic rate‐limiting enzyme. Cox regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operation (LASSO) and experimentally verification were performed to identify metabolic rate‐limiting enzyme signature. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and prognostic nomogram were used to assess the efficacy of the signature in the three HCC cohorts (TCGA training cohort, internal cohort and an independent validation cohort).ResultsA classifier based on three rate‐limiting enzymes (RRM1, UCK2 and G6PD) was conducted and serves as independent prognostic factor. This effect was further confirmed in an independent cohort, which indicated that the AUC at year 5 was 0.715 (95% CI: 0.653‐0.777) for clinical risk score, whereas it was significantly increased to 0.852 (95% CI: 0.798‐0.906) when combination of the clinical with signature risk score. Moreover, a comprehensive nomogram including the signature and clinicopathological aspects resulted in significantly predict the individual outcomes.ConclusionsOur results highlighted the prognostic value of rate‐limiting enzymes in HCC, which may be useful for accurate risk assessment in guiding clinical management and treatment decisions.     

Molecular approaches reveal weak sibship aggregation and a high dispersal propensity in a non‐native fish parasite

Inferring parameters related to the aggregation pattern of parasites and to their dispersal propensity are important for predicting their ecological consequences and evolutionary potential. Nonetheless, it is notoriously difficult to infer these parameters from wildlife parasites given the difficulty in tracking these organisms. Molecular‐based inferences constitute a promising approach that has yet rarely been applied in the wild. Here, we combined several population genetic analyses including sibship reconstruction to document the genetic structure, patterns of sibship aggregation, and the dispersal dynamics of a non‐native parasite of fish, the freshwater copepod ectoparasite Tracheliastes polycolpus. We collected parasites according to a hierarchical sampling design, with the sampling of all parasites from all host individuals captured in eight sites spread along an upstream–downstream river gradient. Individual multilocus genotypes were obtained from 14 microsatellite markers, and used to assign parasites to full‐sib families and to investigate the genetic structure of T. polycolpus among both hosts and sampling sites. The distribution of full‐sibs obtained among the sampling sites was used to estimate individual dispersal distances within families. Our results showed that T. polycolpus sibs tend to be aggregated within sites but not within host individuals. We detected important upstream‐to‐downstream dispersal events of T. polycolpus between sites (modal distance: 25.4 km; 95% CI [22.9, 27.7]), becoming scarcer as the geographic distance from their family core location increases. Such a dispersal pattern likely contributes to the strong isolation‐by‐distance observed at the river scale. We also detected some downstream‐to‐upstream dispersal events (modal distance: 2.6 km; 95% CI [2.2–23.3]) that likely result from movements of infected hosts. Within each site, the dispersal of free‐living infective larvae among hosts likely contributes to increasing genetic diversity on hosts, possibly fostering the evolutionary potential of T. polycolpus.     

Lipid levels in midlife and risk of atrial fibrillation over 3 decades—Experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort: A cohort study

BackgroundThe role of cholesterol levels in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) is still controversial. In addition, whether and to what extent apolipoproteins are associated with the risk of AF is rarely studied. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between blood lipid levels in midlife and subsequent risk of new-onset AF.Methods and findingsThis population-based study included 65,136 individuals aged 45 to 60 years without overt cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) from the Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort. Lipids were measured in 1985 to 1996, and individuals were followed until December 31, 2019 for incident AF (i.e., study outcome). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Over a mean follow-up of 24.2 years (standard deviation 7.5, range 0.2 to 35.9), 13,871 (21.3%) incident AF cases occurred. Higher levels of total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were statistically significantly associated with a lower risk of AF during the first 5 years of follow-up (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.99, p = 0.013; HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.92, p = 0.016), but not thereafter (HR ranging from 0.94 [95% CI: 0.89 to 1.00, p = 0.038] to 0.96 [95% CI: 0.77 to 1.19, p > 0.05]). Lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) and higher triglycerides (TG)/HDL-C ratio were statistically significantly associated with a higher risk of AF during the entire follow-up (HR ranging from 1.13 [95% CI: 1.07 to 1.19, p < 0.001] to 1.53 [95% CI: 1.12 to 2.00, p = 0.007]). Apolipoprotein B (ApoB)/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk. The observed associations were similar among those who developed incident heart failure (HF)/coronary heart disease (CHD) and those who did not. The main limitations of this study include lack of adjustments for lifestyle factors and high blood pressure leading to potential residual confounding.ConclusionsHigh TC and LDL-C in midlife was associated with a lower risk of AF, but this association was present only within 5 years from lipid measurement and not thereafter. On the contrary, low HDL-C and ApoA-I and high TG/HDL-C ratio were associated with an increased risk of AF over almost 35 years of follow-up. ApoB/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk.

Mozhu Ding and colleagues investigate investigate the association between blood lipid levels in midlife and subsequent risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation in Sweden.