Prey dispersal and predator persistence

To understand how patchiness influences population dynamics of a tri-trophic interaction, a tractable model is formulated in terms of differential equations. Motivated by the structure of systems such as plants, phytophagous mites and predatory mites, the model takes dispersal into account at the middle trophic level. The effect of dispersal for the middle level in a tri-trophic system could be either stabilising or destabilising since the middle level acts both as prey and as predator. First a simple model with logistic growth for the lowest level is formulated. A model with logistic growth for the lowest level and instantaneous dispersal has a globally stable three-species equilibrium, if this equilibrium exists. Addition of a middle level dispersal phase of non-negligible duration influences equilibrium stability. In the absence of the top trophic level a limit cycle can occur, caused by the delay that exists in the reaction of the middle level to the changes in the lowest level. With low predator efficiency, it is also possible to have an unstable three-species equilibrium. So addition of a middle level dispersal phase of non-negligible duration can work destabilising. Next the persistence of the third trophic level is studied. Even when the three-species equilibrium exists, the third trophic level need not be persistent. A two-species limit cycle can keep its stability when a three-species equilibrium exists; the system is then bistable. It is argued that such a bistability can offer an alternative explanation for pesticide-induced outbreaks of spider mites and failure of predator introduction.     

Density-dependent dispersal complicates spatial synchrony in tri-trophic food chains

Spatial synchrony can increase extinction risk and undermines metapopulation persistence. Both dispersal and biotic interactions can strongly affect spatial synchrony. Here, we explore the spatial synchrony of a tri-trophic food chain in two patches connected by density-dependent dispersal, namely the strategies of prey evasion (PE) and predator pursuit (PP). The dynamics of the food chain are depicted by both the Hastings–Powell model and the chemostat model, with synchrony measured by the Pearson correlation coefficient. We use the density-independent dispersal in the system as a baseline for comparison. Results show that the density-independent dispersal of a species in the system can promote its dynamic synchrony. Dispersal of intermediate species in the tri-trophic food chain is the strongest synchronizer. In contrast, the density-dependent PP and PE of intermediate species can desynchronize the system. Highly synchronized dynamics emerged when the basal species has a strong PE strategy or when the top species has a moderate PP strategy. Our results reveal the complex relationship between density-dependent dispersal and spatial synchrony in tri-trophic systems.     

The responses of unstable food chains to enrichment

Summary This article investigates the mean abundances of trophic levels in simple models of two- and three-level food chains as a function of the rate of input of nutrients. The analysis concentrates on cases in which the equilibrium point with all species present is unstable. In most of the models, the instability arises because the consumer species become satiated when food density is high. In unstable two-level systems, bottom level abundance generally increases with increased nutrient input. The abundance of the second level may decrease with increased input. Changes in the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity of the bottom level can have qualitatively opposite effects on trophic level abundances. Refuges for or immigration of the bottom level usually cause both levels to increase in mean abundance with an increased carrying capacity. A variety of different predator—prey models are discussed briefly and the results suggest that increased nutrient input will often increase the abundance of both levels; however, several circumstances can cause the top level to decrease. In three-level systems, an increased carrying capacity can cause extinction of the top level. Extinction may or may not be conditional on the initial densities of the three levels. These results may help explain the observed lack of correlation between productivity and the number of trophic levels in natural food webs, as well as the lack of very long food chains. The results suggest that patterns of abundances across productivity gradients cannot be used to assess the importance of top-down vs bottom-up effects.     

Population synchrony and stability in environmentally forced metacommunities

A general prediction from simple metapopulation models is that spatially synchronized forcing can spatially synchronize population dynamics and destabilize metapopulations. In contrast, spatially asynchronous forcing is predicted to decrease population synchrony and promote temporal stability and population persistence, especially in the presence of dispersal. Only recently have studies begun to experimentally address these predictions. Moreover, few studies have experimentally examined how such processes operate in the context of competition communities. Stabilizing processes may continue to operate when placed within a metacommunity context with multiple competing consumers but only at low to intermediate levels of dispersal. High dispersal rates can reverse these predictions and lead to destabilization. We tested this under controlled conditions using an experimental aquatic system composed of three competing species of zooplankton. Metacommunities experienced different levels of dispersal and environmental forcing in the form of spatially synchronous or asynchronous pH perturbations. We found support that dispersal can have contrasting effects on population stability depending on the degree to which population dynamics were synchronized in space. Dispersal under synchronous forcing or no forcing had either neutral of positive effects on spatial population synchrony of all three zooplankton species. In these treatments, dispersal reduced population stability at the local and metapopulation levels for two of three species. In contrast, asynchronously varying environments reduced population synchrony relative to unforced systems, regardless of dispersal level. In these treatments, dispersal enhanced temporal stability and persistence of populations not by reducing population synchrony but by enhancing population minima and spatial averaging of abundances. High dispersal rates under asynchronous forcing reduced the abundance of one species, consistent with increasing regional competition and general metacommunity theory. However, no effects on its stability or persistence were observed. Our work highlights the context‐dependent effects of dispersal on population dynamics in varying environments.     

Isolated in an ocean of grass: low levels of gene flow between termite subpopulations

Habitat fragmentation is one of the most important causes of biodiversity loss, but many species are distributed in naturally patchy habitats. Such species are often organized in highly dynamic metapopulations or in patchy populations with high gene flow between subpopulations. Yet, there are also species that exist in stable patchy habitats with small subpopulations and presumably low dispersal rates. Here, we present population genetic data for the ‘magnetic’ termite Amitermes meridionalis, which show that short distances between subpopulations do not hinder exceptionally strong genetic differentiation (F_ST: 0.339; R_ST: 0.636). Despite the strong genetic differentiation between subpopulations, we did not find evidence for genetic impoverishment. We propose that loss of genetic diversity might be counteracted by a long colony life with low colony turnover. Indeed, we found evidence for the inheritance of colonies by so‐called ‘replacement reproductives’. Inhabiting a mound for several generations might result in loss of gene diversity within a colony but maintenance of gene diversity at the subpopulation level.     

Stabilization through spatial pattern formation in metapopulations with long-range dispersal

Many studies of metapopulation models assume that spatially extended populations occupy a network of identical habitat patches, each coupled to its nearest neighbouring patches by density-independent dispersal. Much previous work has focused on the temporal stability of spatially homogeneous equilibrium states of the metapopulation, and one of the main predictions of such models is that the stability of equilibrium states in the local patches in the absence of migration determines the stability of spatially homogeneous equilibrium states of the whole metapopulation when migration is added. Here, we present classes of examples in which deviations from the usual assumptions lead to different predictions. In particular, heterogeneity in local habitat quality in combination with long-range dispersal can induce a stable equilibrium for the metapopulation dynamics, even when within-patch processes would produce very complex behaviour in each patch in the absence of migration. Thus, when spatially homogeneous equilibria become unstable, the system can often shift to a different, spatially inhomogeneous steady state. This new global equilibrium is characterized by a standing spatial wave of population abundances. Such standing spatial waves can also be observed in metapopulations consisting of identical habitat patches, i.e. without heterogeneity in patch quality, provided that dispersal is density dependent. Spatial pattern formation after destabilization of spatially homogeneous equilibrium states is well known in reaction–diffusion systems and has been observed in various ecological models. However, these models typically require the presence of at least two species, e.g. a predator and a prey. Our results imply that stabilization through spatial pattern formation can also occur in single-species models. However, the opposite effect of destabilization can also occur: if dispersal is short range, and if there is heterogeneity in patch quality, then the metapopulation dynamics can be chaotic despite the patches having stable equilibrium dynamics when isolated. We conclude that more general metapopulation models than those commonly studied are necessary to fully understand how spatial structure can affect spatial and temporal variation in population abundance.     

Structured models of metapopulation dynamics

I develop models of metapopulation dynamics that describe changes in the numbers of individuals within patches. These models are analogous to structured population models, with patches playing the role of individuals. Single species models which do not include the effect of immigration on local population dynamics of occupied patches typically lead to a unique equilibrium. The models can be used to study the distributions of numbers of individuals among patches, showing that both metapopulations with local outbreaks and metapopulations without outbreaks can occur in systems with no underlying environmental variability. Distributions of local population sizes (in occupied patches) can vary independently of the total population size, so both patterns of distributions of local population sizes are compatible with either rare or common species. Models which include the effect of immigration on local population dynamics can lead to two positive equilibria, one stable and one unstable, the latter representing a threshold between regional extinction and persistence.     

A novel fitness proxy in structured locally finite metapopulations with diploid genetics, with an application to dispersal evolution

Many studies of evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS) for technical reasons make the simplification that reproduction is clonal. A post-hoc justification is that in the simplest eco-evolutionary models more realistic genetic assumptions, such as haploid sexual or diploid sexual cases, yield results compatible with the clonal ones. For metapopulations the technical reasons were even more poignant thanks to the lack of accessible fitness proxies for the diploid case. However, metapopulations are also precisely the sort of ecological backdrop for which one expect discrepancies between the evolutionary outcomes derived from clonal reproduction and diploid genetics, because substantially many mutant homozygotes appear locally even though the mutant is rare globally. In this paper we devise a fitness proxy applicable to the haploid sexual and diploid sexual case, in the style of Metz and Gyllenberg [Metz, J.A.J., Gyllenberg, M., 2001. How should we define fitness in structured metapopulation models? Including an application to the calculation of ES dispersal strategies. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 268, 499-508], that can cope with local population fluctuations due to environmental and demographic stochasticity. With the use of this fitness proxy we find that in dispersal evolution the studied clonal model is equivalent with the haploid sexual model, and that there are indeed many differences between clonal and diploid ESS dispersal rates. In a homogenous landscape the discrepancy is but minor (less than 2%), but the situation is different in a heterogeneous landscape: Not only is the quantitative discrepancy between the two types of ESSs appreciable (around 10%-20%), but more importantly, at the same parameter values, evolutionarily stability properties may differ. It is possible, that the singular strategy is evolutionarily stable in the clonal case but not in the diploid case, and vice versa.     

Evolutionarily Stable Dispersal Rates Do Not Always Increase with Local Extinction Rates

Earlier models on the evolution of dispersal have suggested that evolutionarily stable dispersal rates should increase with the frequency of local extinctions. Most metapopulation models assume site saturation (i.e., no local population dynamics), yet the majority of species distributed as metapopulations rarely attain carrying capacity in all occupied patches. In this article, we relax this assumption and examine the evolutionarily stable dispersal rate under nonsaturated but still competitive demographic conditions. Contrary to previous predictions, we show that increasing local extinction rates may allow decreasing dispersal rates to evolve.     

The relative importance of herbivory and carnivory on the distribution of energy in a stochastic tri-trophic food web

A three-state, discrete-time Markov chain is used to model the dynamics of energy flow in a tri-trophic food web. The distribution of energy in the three trophic levels is related to the rates of flow between the trophic levels and calculated for the entire range of possible flow values. These distributions are then analysed for stability and used to test the idea that plants are resource-limited and herbivores are predation-limited. Low rates of death and decomposition, when coupled with low rates of herbivory and carnivory, tend to destabilize this food web. Food webs with higher rates of death and decomposition are relatively more stable regardless of rates of herbivory and carnivory. Plants are more prone to resource-limitation and herbivores are, in general, limited by their predators, which supports Hairston et al. (Am. Nat. 94 (1960) 421). The rate of decomposition often mediates the roles of top-down and bottom-up control of energy flow in the food web.     

Stability aware spatial cut of metapopulations ecological networks

Ecological complex networks are common in the study of patched ecological systems where evolving populations interact within and among the patches. The loss of the dispersal connections between patches due to reasons such as erosion of migration corridors and road construction can cause an undesirable partitioning of such networks resulting in instability or negative impact on the metapopulations. A partitioning or spatial cut that is aware of the stability of the dynamics in the resulting daughter sub-networks can be an effective tool in dealing with the situation like proposing road alignment through a metapopulations network. This paper provides some mathematical conditions along with an heuristic graph partitioning algorithm that can help in finding ecologically suitable partitions of the metapopulations networks. Our study noted the crucial role of network connectivity (measured by Fiedler value) in stabilizing the metapopulations. That is, a sufficiently connected metapopulations network along with constrained internal patch dynamics has stable dynamics around its homogeneous co-existential equilibrium solution. With the considered mathematical model in this paper, network partitioning does not alter the internal patch dynamics around its homogeneous equilibrium point, but it can change the connectivity levels in the partitioned subnetworks. Thus, the proposed partitioning problem for an already stable metapopulations network is reduced to finding its subnetworks with desirable connectivity levels.     

Population dynamics of epiphytic orchids in a metapopulation context

Background and Aims

Populations of many epiphytes show a patchy distribution where clusters of plants growing on individual trees are spatially separated and may thus function as metapopulations. Seed dispersal is necessary to (re)colonize unoccupied habitats, and to transfer seeds from high- to low-competition patches. Increasing dispersal distances, however, reduces local fecundity and the probability that seeds will find a safe site outside the original patch. Thus, there is a conflict between seed survival and colonization.

Methods

Populations of three epiphytic orchids were monitored over three years in a Mexican humid montane forest and analysed with spatially averaged and with spatially explicit matrix metapopulation models. In the latter, population dynamics at the scale of the subpopulations (epiphytes on individual host trees) are based on detailed stage-structured observations of transition probabilities and trees are connected by a dispersal function.

Key Results

Population growth rates differed among trees and years. While ignoring these differences, and averaging the population matrices over trees, yields negative population growth, metapopulation models predict stable or growing populations because the trees that support growing subpopulations determine the growth of the metapopulation. Stochastic models which account for the differences among years differed only marginally from deterministic models. Population growth rates were significantly lower, and extinctions of local patches more frequent in models where higher dispersal results in reduced local fecundity compared with hypothetical models where this is not the case. The difference between the two models increased with increasing mean dispersal distance. Though recolonization events increased with dispersal distance, this could not compensate the losses due to reduced local fecundity.

Conclusions

For epiphytes, metapopulation models are useful to capture processes beyond the level of the single host tree, but local processes are equally important to understand epiphyte population dynamics.     

Evolution of body condition‐dependent dispersal in metapopulations

Body condition‐dependent dispersal strategies are common in nature. Although it is obvious that environmental constraints may induce a positive relationship between body condition and dispersal, it is not clear whether positive body conditional dispersal strategies may evolve as a strategy in metapopulations. We have developed an individual‐based simulation model to investigate how body condition–dispersal reaction norms evolve in metapopulations that are characterized by different levels of environmental stochasticity and dispersal mortality. In the model, body condition is related to fecundity and determined either by environmental conditions during juvenile development (adult dispersal) or by those experienced by the mother (natal dispersal). Evolutionarily stable reaction norms strongly depend on metapopulation conditions: positive body condition dependency of dispersal evolved in metapopulation conditions with low levels of dispersal mortality and high levels of environmental stochasticity. Negative body condition‐dependent dispersal evolved in metapopulations with high dispersal mortality and low environmental stochasticity. The latter strategy is responsible for higher dispersal rates under kin competition when dispersal decisions are based on body condition reached at the adult life stage. The evolution of both positive and negative body condition‐dependent dispersal strategies is consequently likely in metapopulations and depends on the prevalent environmental conditions.     

天山南麓中段戈壁区膜果麻黄种群空间分异特征

在天山南麓中段戈壁区洪积扇顶部、中部和底部区域设置样地,以植株高度和冠幅为指标,采用地统计学方法,研究戈壁区膜果麻黄种群的空间分异特征,旨在掌握区域膜果麻黄种群空间分异规律,为戈壁区植被保护和生态修复提供科学依据。结果表明: 在洪积扇顶部,膜果麻黄种群呈斑块状分布;在洪积扇中部和底部,种群呈带状分布,中部带状宽度大于底部。从洪积扇顶部到底部,膜果麻黄植株高度和冠幅均呈先减少后增加的趋势,洪积扇顶部、中部和底部植株高度分别为40.34、21.07、36.96 cm,植株冠幅分别为1.09、0.80、1.43 m²。在洪积扇顶部、中部和底部,膜果麻黄植株高度的最佳拟合模型分别为指数模型、指数模型和线性模型,而冠幅的最佳拟合模型分别为指数模型、球状模型和线性模型。从洪积扇顶部到底部,植株高度和冠幅分形维数在1.909～1.989,表明膜果麻黄种群空间格局简单,同质度高。从洪积扇顶部到底部,膜果麻黄植株高度和冠幅各向异性出现的空间距离逐渐变短,在顶部、中部和底部,植株高度和冠幅表现出各向异性的空间距离分别为>60、42～46和23～27 m。     

Stabilizing effects in spatial parasitoid-host and predator-prey models: a review

We review the literature on spatial host-parasitoid and predator-prey models. Dispersal on its own is not stabilizing and can destabilize a stable local equilibrium. We identify three mechanisms whereby limited dispersal of hosts and parasitoids combined with other features, such as spatial and temporal heterogeneity, can promote increased persistence and stability. The first mechanisms, "statistical stabilization", is simply the statistical effect that summing a number of out-of-phase population trajectories results in a relatively constant total population density. The second mechanism involves decoupling of immigration from local density, such that limited dispersal between asynchronous patches results in an effect that mimics density-dependence at the local patch level. The third mechanism involves altering spatially averaged parameter values resulting from spatial heterogeneity in density combined with non-linear responses to density. Persistence in spatially explicit models with local dispersal frequently associated with self-organized spatial patterning.     

Food webs in space: On the interplay of dynamic instability and spatial processes

Ecologists increasingly recognize that a consideration of spatial dynamics is essential for resolving many classical problems in community ecology. In the present paper, I argue that understanding how trophic interactions influence population stability can have important implications for the expression of spatial processes. I use two examples to illustrate this point. The first example has to do with spatial determinants of food chain length. Prior theoretical and empirical work has suggested that colonization–extinction dynamics can influence food chain length, at least for specialist consumers. I briefly review evidence and prior theory that food chain length is sensitive to area. A metacommunity scenario, in which each of various patches can have a food chain varying in length (but in which a consumer is not present on a patch unless its required resource is also present), shows that alternative landscape states are possible. This possibility arises if top predators moderate unstable interactions between intermediate predators and basal resources. The second example has to do with the impact of recurrent immigration on the stability of persistent populations. Immigration can either stabilize or destabilize local population dynamics. Moreover, an increase in immigration can decrease average population size for unstable populations with direct density-dependence, or in predator–prey systems with saturating functional responses. These theoretical models suggest that the interplay of temporal variation and spatial fluxes can lead to novel qualitative phenomena.     

Joint evolution of differential seed dispersal and self‐fertilization

Differential seed dispersal, in which selfed and outcrossed seeds possess different dispersal propensities, represents a potentially important individual‐level association. A variety of traits can mediate differential seed dispersal, including inflorescence and seed size variation. However, how natural selection shapes such associations is poorly known. Here, we developed theoretical models for the evolution of mating system and differential seed dispersal in metapopulations, incorporating heterogeneous pollination, dispersal cost, cost of outcrossing and environment‐dependent inbreeding depression. We considered three models. In the ‘fixed dispersal model’, only selfing rate is allowed to evolve. In the ‘fixed selfing model’, in which selfing is fixed but differential seed dispersal can evolve, we showed that natural selection favours a higher, equal or lower dispersal rate for selfed seeds to that for outcrossed seeds. However, in the ‘joint evolution model’, in which selfing and dispersal can evolve together, evolution necessarily leads to higher or equal dispersal rate for selfed seeds compared to that for outcrossed. Further comparison revealed that outcrossed seed dispersal is selected against by the evolution of mixed mating or selfing, whereas the evolution of selfed seed dispersal undergoes independent processes. We discuss the adaptive significance and constraints for mating system/dispersal association.     

HYDROTHERMAL-VENT ALVINELLID POLYCHAETE DISPERSAL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 2. A METAPOPULATION MODEL BASED ON HABITAT SHIFTS

Marine organisms typically fall into two main categories: those with a high level of population structuring and those with a low one. The first are often found to be poor dispersers, following isolation by distance or stepping-stone theoretical predictions. The second are commonly associated with high-dispersal taxa and are best described by the island model. Deep-sea hydrothermal vent systems represent a good model for studying one-dimensional metapopulations. Whereas isolation by distance might be expected to be the rule in such a system for species with limited dispersal capabilities, a biological paradox can be observed: an apparent genetic homogeneity in some vent species with short-scale dispersal potential, in a one-dimensional fragmented habitat. This can be explained if one key assumption of the existing models is not met: gene flow between populations and genetic drift may not have the time to equilibrate. Geophysical models revealed that hydrothermal convection is intrinsically unstable, inducing processes of coalescence or splitting of venting areas in a chaotic manner. This is likely to generate frequent extinctions and recolonizations. Theoretical genetic predictions derived from extinctions/recolonizations cannot satisfactorily model a situation where habitat shifts are frequent and constantly affect the metapopulation equilibrium. Because neither the island and the stepping-stone models nor the classical metapopulation models resemble the hydrothermal vent reality, we present here a realistic model developed to provide a compromise between existing conceptual models and what is currently known of the biology and ecology of one of the most peculiar and best-studied vent species, the polychaete Alvinella pompejana. This model allows us to define the boundaries between which the metapopulation is evolutionary stable in an unstable context. Simulations show different patterns in which metapopulation size and recolonization vary but reach an equilibrium despite chaotic vent extinctions. In contrast, the model also shows that displacing habitat continuously affects the equilibrium between gene flow and drift. As a consequence, the time required to balance these evolutionary forces can never be attained, leading to chaotic fluctuations in F-statistics. Those fluctuations are mainly due to stochastic changes of the interpatch distance which affect migration rates. The shifting of active zones of venting can episodically counterbalance differentiation and allow a long-term genetic homogenization at the ridge scale. These findings lead to a new concept in which the exchanges between populations would mainly depend on the habitat's movements along the ridge axis rather than the organim's dispersal. We therefore propose a new model based on patch-network displacements in which transient contact zones allow low levels of gene flow throughout the metapopulation.     

Metapopulation dynamics with quasi-local competition

Stepping-stone models for the ecological dynamics of metapopulations are often used to address general questions about the effects of spatial structure on the nature and complexity of population fluctuations. Such models describe an ensemble of local and spatially isolated habitat patches that are connected through dispersal. Reproduction and hence the dynamics in a given local population depend on the density of that local population, and a fraction of every local population disperses to neighboring patches. In such models, interesting dynamic phenomena, e.g. the persistence of locally unstable predator-prey interactions, are only observed if the local dynamics in an isolated patch exhibit non-equilibrium behavior. Therefore, the scope of these models is limited. Here we extend these models by making the biologically plausible assumption that reproductive success in a given local habitat not only depends on the density of the local population living in that habitat, but also on the densities of neighboring local populations. This would occur if competition for resources occurs between neighboring populations, e.g. due to foraging in neighboring habitats. With this assumption of quasi-local competition the dynamics of the model change completely. The main difference is that even if the dynamics of the local populations have a stable equilibrium in isolation, the spatially uniform equilibrium in which all local populations are at their carrying capacity becomes unstable if the strength of quasi-local competition reaches a critical level, which can be calculated analytically. In this case the metapopulation reaches a new stable state, which is, however, not spatially uniform anymore and instead results in an irregular spatial pattern of local population abundance. For large metapopulations, a huge number of different, spatially non-uniform equilibrium states coexist as attractors of the metapopulation dynamics, so that the final state of the system depends critically on the initial conditions. The existence of a large number of attractors has important consequences when environmental noise is introduced into the model. Then the metapopulation performs a random walk in the space of all attractors. This leads to large and complicated population fluctuations whose power spectrum obeys a red-shifted power law. Our theory reiterates the potential importance of spatial structure for ecological processes and proposes new mechanisms for the emergence of non-uniform spatial patterns of abundance and for the persistence of complicated temporal population fluctuations.