Eastern monarch larval performance may not be affected by shifts in phenological synchrony with milkweed

1. Interacting species are experiencing disruptions in the relative timing of their key life‐history events due to climate change. These shifts can sometimes be detrimental to the fitness of the consumer in trophic interactions but not always.
2. The potential consequences of phenological asynchrony for the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) and its host plant (Asclepias spp.) have not been well‐studied. Given that plants generally undergo seasonal declines in quality, if climate change delays the timing of the larval stage relative to the availability of younger milkweed plants, monarch performance could be negatively affected.
3. Here, we explore the potential consequences for the eastern monarch population due to probable asynchrony with milkweed. We used field surveys around Ottawa, Canada, to determine monarch oviposition preference on common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca) plants and the seasonal availability of these plants. To determine the potential fitness consequences when females oviposit on nonpreferred plants, we conducted a field experiment to assess the effect of milkweed size on monarch larval performance (e.g., development time and final size).
4. Preferred oviposition plants (earlier stages of development and better condition) were consistently available in large proportion over the summer season. We also found that declines in leaf quality (more latex and thicker leaves) with plant size did not translate into decreases in larval performance.
5. Our results suggest that even if asynchrony of the monarch–milkweed interaction occurs due to climate change, the larval stage of the eastern monarch may not face negative consequences. Future studies should determine how the relative timing of the interaction will change in the region.

     

Developmental timing of extreme temperature events (heat waves) disrupts host–parasitoid interactions

1. When thermal tolerances differ between interacting species, extreme temperature events (heat waves) will alter the ecological outcomes. The parasitoid wasp Cotesia congregata suffers high mortality when reared throughout development at temperatures that are nonstressful for its host, Manduca sexta. However, the effects of short‐term heat stress during parasitoid development are unknown in this host–parasitoid system.
2. Here, we investigate how duration of exposure, daily maximum temperature, and the developmental timing of heat waves impact the performance of C. congregata and its host¸ M. sexta. We find that the developmental timing of short‐term heat waves strongly determines parasitoid and host outcomes.
3. Heat waves during parasitoid embryonic development resulted in complete wasp mortality and the production of giant, long‐lived hosts. Heat waves during the 1st‐instar had little effect on wasp success, whereas heat waves during the parasitoid''s nutritionally and hormonally critical 2nd instar greatly reduced wasp emergence and eclosion. The temperature and duration of heat waves experienced early in development determined what proportion of hosts had complete parasitoid mortality and abnormal phenotypes.
4. Our results suggest that the timing of extreme temperature events will be crucial to determining the ecological impacts on this host–parasitoid system. Discrepancies in thermal tolerance between interacting species and across development will have important ramifications on ecosystem responses to climate change.

     

The fate of Meconopsis species in the Tibeto‐Himalayan region under future climate change

High‐mountain areas such as the Tibeto‐Himalayan region (THR) host cold‐adapted biota expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic climate change. Meconopsis is a representative endangered genus confined to alpine meadow or subnival habitats in the THR. We used climate‐niche factor analysis to study the vulnerability of ten Meconopsis species to climate change, comparing current climate (representative of 1960–1990) to future climate scenarios (2070: average 2061–2080). For these ten Meconopsis species, we then identified potential future climate refugia and determined optimal routes for each species to disperse to the proposed refugia. Our results indicate that for the ten Meconopsis species, the regions with low vulnerability to climate change in the THR are the central Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains (HDM), the eastern Himalayas, and the West Qinling Mountain (WQL), and can be considered potential future climate refugia. Under future climate change, we found for the ten Meconopsis species potential dispersal routes to three of the four identified refugia: the HDM, the eastern Himalayas, and the WQL. Our results suggest that past refugia on the THR will also be the future climate refugia for the ten Meconopsis species, and these species may potentially persist in multiple future climate refugia, likely reducing risks from climate change. Furthermore, climate change may affect the threat ranking of Red Listed Species for Meconopsis species, as Least Concern species were estimated to become more vulnerable to climate change than the only Near Threatened species.     

Flyway‐scale analysis reveals that the timing of migration in wading birds is becoming later

1. Understanding the implications of climate change for migratory animals is paramount for establishing how best to conserve them. A large body of evidence suggests that birds are migrating earlier in response to rising temperatures, but many studies focus on single populations of model species.
2. Migratory patterns at large spatial scales may differ from those occurring in single populations, for example because of individuals dispersing outside of study areas. Furthermore, understanding phenological trends across species is vital because we need a holistic understanding of how climate change affects wildlife, especially as rates of temperature change vary globally.
3. The life cycles of migratory wading birds cover vast latitudinal gradients, making them particularly susceptible to climate change and, therefore, ideal model organisms for understanding its effects. Here, we implement a novel application of changepoint detection analysis to investigate changes in the timing of migration in waders at a flyway scale using a thirteen‐year citizen science dataset (eBird) and determine the influence of changes in weather conditions on large‐scale migratory patterns.
4. In contrast to most previous research, our results suggest that migration is getting later in both spring and autumn. We show that rates of change were faster in spring than autumn in both the Afro‐Palearctic and Nearctic flyways, but that weather conditions in autumn, not in spring, predicted temporal changes in the corresponding season. Birds migrated earlier in autumn when temperatures increased rapidly, and later with increasing headwinds.
5. One possible explanation for our results is that migration is becoming later due to northward range shifts, which means that a higher proportion of birds travel greater distances and therefore take longer to reach their destinations. Our findings underline the importance of considering spatial scale when investigating changes in the phenology of migratory bird species.

     

Spatial familial networks to infer demographic structure of wild populations

1. In social species, reproductive success and rates of dispersal vary among individuals resulting in spatially structured populations. Network analyses of familial relationships may provide insights on how these parameters influence population‐level demographic patterns. These methods, however, have rarely been applied to genetically derived pedigree data from wild populations.
2. Here, we use parent–offspring relationships to construct familial networks from polygamous boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Saskatchewan, Canada, to inform recovery efforts. We collected samples from 933 individuals at 15 variable microsatellite loci along with caribou‐specific primers for sex identification. Using network measures, we assess the contribution of individual caribou to the population with several centrality measures and then determine which measures are best suited to inform on the population demographic structure. We investigate the centrality of individuals from eighteen different local areas, along with the entire population.
3. We found substantial differences in centrality of individuals in different local areas, that in turn contributed differently to the full network, highlighting the importance of analyzing networks at different scales. The full network revealed that boreal caribou in Saskatchewan form a complex, interconnected familial network, as the removal of edges with high betweenness did not result in distinct subgroups. Alpha, betweenness, and eccentricity centrality were the most informative measures to characterize the population demographic structure and for spatially identifying areas of highest fitness levels and family cohesion across the range. We found varied levels of dispersal, fitness, and cohesion in family groups.
4. Synthesis and applications: Our results demonstrate the value of different network measures in assessing genetically derived familial networks. The spatial application of the familial networks identified individuals presenting different fitness levels, short‐ and long‐distance dispersing ability across the range in support of population monitoring and recovery efforts.

     

Exosymbiotic microbes within fermented pollen provisions are as important for the development of solitary bees as the pollen itself

1. Developing bees derive significant benefits from the microbes present within their guts and fermenting pollen provisions. External microbial symbionts (exosymbionts) associated with larval diets may be particularly important for solitary bees that suffer reduced fitness when denied microbe‐colonized pollen.
2. To investigate whether this phenomenon is generalizable across foraging strategy, we examined the effects of exosymbiont presence/absence across two solitary bee species, a pollen specialist and generalist. Larvae from each species were reared on either microbe‐rich natural or microbe‐deficient sterilized pollen provisions allocated by a female forager belonging to their own species (conspecific‐sourced pollen) or that of another species (heterospecific‐sourced pollen). Our results reveal that the presence of pollen‐associated microbes was critical for the survival of both the generalist and specialist larvae, regardless of whether the pollen was sourced from a conspecific or heterospecific forager.
3. Given the positive effects of exosymbiotic microbes for larval fitness, we then examined if the magnitude of this benefit varied based on whether the microbes were provisioned by a conspecific forager (the mother bee) or a heterospecific forager. In this second study, generalist larvae were reared only on microbe‐rich pollen provisions, but importantly, the sources (conspecific versus heterospecific) of the microbes and pollen were experimentally manipulated.
4. Bee fitness metrics indicated that microbial and pollen sourcing both had significant impacts on larval performance, and the effect sizes of each were similar. Moreover, the effects of conspecific‐sourced microbes and conspecific‐sourced pollen were strongly positive, while that of heterospecific‐sourced microbes and heterospecific‐sourced pollen, strongly negative.
5. Our findings imply that not only is the presence of exosymbionts critical for both specialist and generalist solitary bees, but more notably, that the composition of the specific microbial community within larval pollen provisions may be as critical for bee development as the composition of the pollen itself.

     

Drivers and consequences of partial migration in an alpine bird species

1. Partial migration, where a portion of the population migrates between winter and summer (breeding) areas and the rest remain year‐round resident, is a common phenomenon across several taxonomic groups. Several hypotheses have been put forward to explain why some individuals migrate while others stay resident, as well as the fitness consequences of the different strategies. Yet, the drivers and consequences of the decision to migrate or not are poorly understood.
2. We used data from radio‐tagged female (n = 73) willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus in an alpine study area in Central Norway to test if (i) the decision to migrate was dependent on individual state variables (age and body weight), (ii) individuals repeated migratory decisions between seasons, and (iii) the choice of migratory strategy was related to reproductive success.
3. Partially supporting our prediction that migratory strategy depends on individual state, we found that juvenile birds with small body sizes were more likely to migrate, whereas large juveniles remained resident. For adult females, we found no relationship between the decision to migrate or stay resident and body weight. We found evidence for high individual repeatability of migratory decision between seasons. Migratory strategy did not explain variation in clutch size or nest fate among individuals, suggesting no direct influence of the chosen strategy on reproductive success.
4. Our results indicate that partial migration in willow ptarmigan is related to juvenile body weight, and that migratory behavior becomes a part of the individual life history as a fixed strategy. Nesting success was not affected by migratory strategy in our study population, but future studies should assess other traits to further test potential fitness consequences.

     

Molecular and iridescent feather reflectance data reveal recent genetic diversification and phenotypic differentiation in a cloud forest hummingbird

The present day distribution and spatial genetic diversity of Mesoamerican biota reflects a long history of responses to habitat change. The hummingbird Lampornis amethystinus is distributed in northern Mesoamerica, with geographically disjunct populations. Based on sampling across the species range using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and nuclear microsatellites jointly analysed with phenotypic and climatic data, we (1) test whether the fragmented distribution is correlated with main evolutionary lineages, (2) assess body size and plumage color differentiation of populations in geographic isolation, and (3) evaluate a set of divergence scenarios and demographic patterns of the hummingbird populations. Analysis of genetic variation revealed four main groups: blue‐throated populations (Sierra Madre del Sur); two groups of amethyst‐throated populations (Trans‐Mexican Volcanic Belt and Sierra Madre Oriental); and populations east of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (IT) with males showing an amethyst throat. The most basal split is estimated to have originated in the Pleistocene, 2.39–0.57 million years ago (MYA), and corresponded to groups of populations separated by the IT. However, the estimated recent divergence time between blue‐ and amethyst‐throated populations does not correspond to the 2‐MY needed to be in isolation for substantial plumage divergence, likely because structurally iridescent colors are more malleable than others. Results of species distribution modeling and Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis fit a model of lineage divergence west of the Isthmus after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and that the species’ suitable habitat was disjunct during past and current conditions. These results challenge the generality of the contraction/expansion glacial model to cloud forest‐interior species and urges management of cloud forest, a highly vulnerable ecosystem to climate change and currently facing destruction, to prevent further loss of genetic diversity or extinction.     

Effects of climate variability on the demography of wild geladas

Nonhuman primates are an essential part of tropical biodiversity and play key roles in many ecosystem functions, processes, and services. However, the impact of climate variability on nonhuman primates, whether anthropogenic or otherwise, remains poorly understood. In this study, we utilized age‐structured matrix population models to assess the population viability and demographic variability of a population of geladas (Theropithecus gelada) in the Simien Mountains, Ethiopia with the aim of revealing any underlying climatic influences. Using data from 2008 to 2019 we calculated annual, time‐averaged, and stochastic population growth rates (λ) and investigated relationships between vital rate variability and monthly cumulative rainfall and mean temperature. Our results showed that under the prevailing environmental conditions, the population will increase (λ _s = 1.021). Significant effects from rainfall and/or temperature variability were widely detected across vital rates; only the first year of infant survival and the individual years of juvenile survival were definitively unaffected. Generally, the higher temperature in the hot‐dry season led to lower survival and higher fecundity, while higher rainfall in the hot‐dry season led to increased survival and fecundity. Overall, these results provide evidence of greater effects of climate variability across a wider range of vital rates than those found in previous primate demography studies. This highlights that although primates have often shown substantial resilience to the direct effects of climate change, their vulnerability may vary with habitat type and across populations.     

Humidity-regulated dormancy onset in the Fabaceae: a conceptual model and its ecological implications for the Australian wattle Acacia saligna

Background and aims

Seed dormancy enhances fitness by preventing seeds from germinating when the probability of seedling survival and recruitment is low. The onset of physical dormancy is sensitive to humidity during ripening; however, the implications of this mechanism for seed bank dynamics have not been quantified. This study proposes a model that describes how humidity-regulated dormancy onset may control the accumulation of a dormant seed bank, and seed experiments are conducted to calibrate the model for an Australian Fabaceae, Acacia saligna. The model is used to investigate the impact of climate on seed dormancy and to forecast the ecological implications of human-induced climate change.

Methods

The relationship between relative humidity and dormancy onset was quantified under laboratory conditions by exposing freshly matured non-dormant seeds to constant humidity levels for fixed durations. The model was field-calibrated by measuring the response of seeds exposed to naturally fluctuating humidity. The model was applied to 3-hourly records of humidity spanning the period 1972–2007 in order to estimate both temporal variability in dormancy and spatial variability attributable to climatic differences among populations. Climate change models were used to project future changes in dormancy onset.

Key Results

A sigmoidal relationship exists between dormancy and humidity under both laboratory and field conditions. Seeds ripened under field conditions became dormant following very short exposure to low humidity (<20 %). Prolonged exposure at higher humidity did not increase dormancy significantly. It is predicted that populations growing in a temperate climate produce 33–55 % fewer dormant seeds than those in a Mediterranean climate; however, dormancy in temperate populations is predicted to increase as a result of climate change.

Conclusions

Humidity-regulated dormancy onset may explain observed variation in physical dormancy. The model offers a systematic approach to modelling this variation in population studies. Forecast changes in climate have the potential to alter the seed bank dynamics of species with physical dormancy regulated by this mechanism, with implications for their capacity to delay germination and exploit windows for recruitment.     

Drought has negative consequences on aphid fitness and plant vigor: Insights from a meta‐analysis

1. Aphids are abundant in natural and managed vegetation, supporting a diverse community of organisms and causing damage to agricultural crops. Due to a changing climate, periods of drought are anticipated to increase, and the potential consequences of this for aphid–plant interactions are unclear.
2. Using a meta‐analysis and synthesis approach, we aimed to advance understanding of how increased drought incidence will affect this ecologically and economically important insect group and to characterize any potential underlying mechanisms. We used qualitative and quantitative synthesis techniques to determine whether drought stress has a negative, positive, or null effect on aphid fitness and examined these effects in relation to (a) aphid biology, (b) geographical region, and (c) host plant biology.
3. Across all studies, aphid fitness is typically reduced under drought. Subgroup analysis detected no difference in relation to aphid biology, geographical region, or the aphid–plant combination, indicating the negative effect of drought on aphids is potentially universal. Furthermore, drought stress had a negative impact on plant vigor and increased plant concentrations of defensive chemicals, suggesting the observed response of aphids is associated with reduced plant vigor and increased chemical defense in drought‐stressed plants.
4. We propose a conceptual model to predict drought effects on aphid fitness in relation to plant vigor and defense to stimulate further research.

     

pyResearchInsights—An open‐source Python package for scientific text analysis

1. With an increasing number of scientific articles published each year, there is a need to synthesize and obtain insights across ever‐growing volumes of literature. Here, we present pyResearchInsights, a novel open‐source automated content analysis package that can be used to analyze scientific abstracts within a natural language processing framework.
2. The package collects abstracts from scientific repositories, identifies topics of research discussed in these abstracts, and presents interactive concept maps to visualize these research topics. To showcase the utilities of this package, we present two examples, specific to the field of ecology and conservation biology.
3. First, we demonstrate the end‐to‐end functionality of the package by presenting topics of research discussed in 1,131 abstracts pertaining to birds of the Tropical Andes. Our results suggest that a large proportion of avian research in this biodiversity hotspot pertains to species distributions, climate change, and plant ecology.
4. Second, we retrieved and analyzed 22,561 abstracts across eight journals in the field of conservation biology to identify twelve global topics of conservation research. Our analysis shows that conservation policy and landscape ecology are focal topics of research. We further examined how these conservation‐associated research topics varied across five biodiversity hotspots.
5. Lastly, we compared the utilities of this package with existing tools that carry out automated content analysis, and we show that our open‐source package has wider functionality and provides end‐to‐end utilities that seldom exist across other tools.

     

Weather variation affects the dispersal of grasshoppers beyond their elevational ranges

1. Understanding how abiotic conditions influence dispersal patterns of organisms is important for understanding the degree to which species can track and persist in the face of changing climate.
2. The goal of this study was to understand how weather conditions influence the dispersal pattern of multiple nonmigratory grasshopper species from lower elevation grassland habitats in which they complete their life‐cycles to higher elevations that extend beyond their range limits.
3. Using over a decade of weekly spring to late‐summer field survey data along an elevational gradient, we explored how abundance and richness of dispersing grasshoppers were influenced by temperature, precipitation, and wind speed and direction. We also examined how changes in population sizes at lower elevations might influence these patterns.
4. We observed that the abundance of dispersing grasshoppers along the gradient declined 4‐fold from the foothills to the subalpine and increased with warmer conditions and when wind flow patterns were mild or in the downslope direction. Thirty‐eight unique grasshopper species from lowland sites were detected as dispersers across the survey years, and warmer years and weak upslope wind conditions also increased the richness of these grasshoppers. The pattern of grasshoppers along the gradient was not sex biased. The positive effect of temperature on dispersal rates was likely explained by an increase in dispersal propensity rather than by an increase in the density of grasshoppers at low elevation sites.
5. The results of this study support the hypothesis that the dispersal patterns of organisms are influenced by changing climatic conditions themselves and as such, that this context‐dependent dispersal response should be considered when modeling and forecasting the ability of species to respond to climate change.

     

Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change

How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats.     

Population‐specific responses of an insect herbivore to variation in host‐plant quality

Anthropogenic climate change poses a substantial challenge to many organisms, to which they need to respond to avoid fitness reductions. Investigating responses to environmental change is particularly interesting in herbivores, as they are potentially affected by indirect effects mediated via variation in host‐plant quality. We here use the herbivorous insect Pieris napi to investigate geographic variation in the response to variation in food quality. We performed a common garden experiment using replicated populations from Germany and Italy, and manipulated host quality by growing host plants at different temperature and water regimes. We found that feeding on plants grown at a higher temperature generally diminished the performance of P. napi, evidenced by a prolonged development time and reduced larval growth rate, body mass, fat content, and phenoloxidase activity. Genotype by environment interactions (G × E) were present in several performance traits, indicating that Italian populations (1) respond more strongly to variation in host‐plant quality and (2) are more sensitive to poor food quality than German ones. This may reflect a cost of the rapid lifestyle found in Italian populations. Consequently, German populations may be more resilient against environmental perturbations and may perhaps even benefit from warmer temperatures, while Italian populations will likely suffer from the concomitantly reduced host‐plant quality. Our study thus exemplifies how investigating G × E may help to better understand the vulnerability of populations to climate change.     

Seed dormancy varies widely among Arabidopsis thaliana populations both between and within Fennoscandia and Italy

The timing of germination is a key life‐history trait in plants, which is strongly affected by the strength of seed dormancy. Continental‐wide genetic variation in seed dormancy has been related to differences in climate and the timing of conditions suitable for seedling establishment. However, for predictions of adaptive potential and consequences of climatic change, information is needed regarding the extent to which seed dormancy varies within climatic regions and the factors driving such variation.We quantified dormancy of seeds produced by 17 Italian and 28 Fennoscandian populations of Arabidopsis thaliana when grown in the greenhouse and at two field sites in Italy and Sweden. To identify possible drivers of among‐population variation in seed dormancy, we examined the relationship between seed dormancy and climate at the site of population origin, and between seed dormancy and flowering time.Seed dormancy was on average stronger in the Italian compared to the Fennoscandian populations, but also varied widely within both regions. Estimates of seed dormancy in the three maternal environments were positively correlated. Among Fennoscandian populations, seed dormancy tended to increase with increasing summer temperature and decreasing precipitation at the site of population origin. In the smaller sample of Italian populations, no significant association was detected between mean seed dormancy and climate at the site of origin. The correlation between population mean seed dormancy and flowering time was weak and not statistically significant within regions.The correlation between seed dormancy and climatic factors in Fennoscandia suggests that at least some of the among‐population variation is adaptive and that climate change will affect selection on this trait. The weak correlation between population mean seed dormancy and flowering time indicates that the two traits can evolve independently.     

Conventional wisdom on roosting behavior of Australian flying‐foxes—A critical review,and evaluation using new data

1. Fruit bats (Family: Pteropodidae) are animals of great ecological and economic importance, yet their populations are threatened by ongoing habitat loss and human persecution. A lack of ecological knowledge for the vast majority of Pteropodid species presents additional challenges for their conservation and management.
2. In Australia, populations of flying‐fox species (Genus: Pteropus) are declining and management approaches are highly contentious. Australian flying‐fox roosts are exposed to management regimes involving habitat modification, through human–wildlife conflict management policies, or vegetation restoration programs. Details on the fine‐scale roosting ecology of flying‐foxes are not sufficiently known to provide evidence‐based guidance for these regimes, and the impact on flying‐foxes of these habitat modifications is poorly understood.
3. We seek to identify and test commonly held understandings about the roosting ecology of Australian flying‐foxes to inform practical recommendations and guide and refine management practices at flying‐fox roosts.
4. We identify 31 statements relevant to understanding of flying‐fox roosting structure and synthesize these in the context of existing literature. We then contribute a contemporary, fine‐scale dataset on within‐roost structure to further evaluate 11 of these statements. The new dataset encompasses 13‐monthly repeat measures from 2,522 spatially referenced roost trees across eight sites in southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales.
5. We show evidence of sympatry and indirect competition between species, including spatial segregation of black and grey‐headed flying‐foxes within roosts and seasonal displacement of both species by little red flying‐foxes. We demonstrate roost‐specific annual trends in occupancy and abundance and provide updated demographic information including the spatial and temporal distributions of males and females within roosts.
6. Insights from our systematic and quantitative study will be important to guide evidence‐based recommendations on restoration and management and will be crucial for the implementation of priority recovery actions for the preservation of these species in the future.

     

Demographic responses to climate‐driven variation in habitat quality across the annual cycle of a migratory bird species

The demography and dynamics of migratory bird populations depend on patterns of movement and habitat quality across the annual cycle. We leveraged archival GPS‐tagging data, climate data, remote‐sensed vegetation data, and bird‐banding data to better understand the dynamics of black‐headed grosbeak (Pheucticus melanocephalus) populations in two breeding regions, the coast and Central Valley of California (Coastal California) and the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Sierra Nevada), over 28 years (1992–2019). Drought conditions across the annual cycle and rainfall timing on the molting grounds influenced seasonal habitat characteristics, including vegetation greenness and phenology (maturity dates). We developed a novel integrated population model with population state informed by adult capture data, recruitment rates informed by age‐specific capture data and climate covariates, and survival rates informed by adult capture–mark–recapture data and climate covariates. Population size was relatively variable among years for Coastal California, where numbers of recruits and survivors were positively correlated, and years of population increase were largely driven by recruitment. In the Sierra Nevada, population size was more consistent and showed stronger evidence of population regulation (numbers of recruits and survivors negatively correlated). Neither region showed evidence of long‐term population trend. We found only weak support for most climate–demographic rate relationships. However, recruitment rates for the Coastal California region were higher when rainfall was relatively early on the molting grounds and when wintering grounds were relatively cool and wet. We suggest that our approach of integrating movement, climate, and demographic data within a novel modeling framework can provide a useful method for better understanding the dynamics of broadly distributed migratory species.     

Thermal ecology and baseline energetic requirements of a large‐bodied ectotherm suggest resilience to climate change

1. Most studies on how rising temperatures will impact terrestrial ectotherms have focused on single populations or multiple sympatric species. Addressing the thermal and energetic implications of climatic variation on multiple allopatric populations of a species will help us better understand how a species may be impacted by altered climates.
2. We used eight years of thermal and behavioral data collected from four populations of Pacific rattlesnakes (Crotalus oreganus) living in climatically distinct habitat types (inland and coastal) to determine the field‐active and laboratory‐preferred body temperatures, thermoregulatory metrics, and maintenance energetic requirements of snakes from each population.
3. Physical models showed that thermal quality was best at coastal sites, but inland snakes thermoregulated more accurately despite being in more thermally constrained environments. Projected increases of 1 and 2°C in ambient temperature result in an increase in overall thermal quality at both coastal and inland sites.
4. Population differences in modeled standard metabolic rate estimates were driven by body size and not field‐active body temperature, with inland snakes requiring 1.6× more food annually than coastal snakes.
5. All snakes thermoregulated with high accuracy, suggesting that small increases in ambient temperature are unlikely to impact the maintenance energetic requirements of individual snakes and that some species of large‐bodied reptiles may be robust to modest thermal perturbations under conservative climate change predictions.

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