High-frequency variation of tree-ring width of some native and alien tree species in Latvia during the period 1965–2009

The plasticity of climate-growth relationships of trees is one of the main factors determining the climate-induced changes in forest productivity and composition. In this study, high-frequency variation of tree-ring width (TRW) of four native and three alien tree species and two hybrids of Populus L. growing in Latvia (hemiboreal zone) was compared using a principal component analysis based on TRW indices for the period 1965–2009. The effect of climatic factors was assessed using a bootstrapped correlation analysis. Influence of common climatic factors related to the length of the vegetation season, winter temperature, and water regime in summer was traced in the TRW of the studied species and hybrids. The combination and effect of the identified factors differed by species (and hybrids), to a certain extent explaining the diversity of TRW patterns. Nevertheless, some similarities among the species were also observed, suggesting the plasticity of growth response. Scots pine was generally sensitive to winter temperatures, but Norway spruce was mainly sensitive to summer water regime, while black alder was sensitive to winter temperatures and precipitation in spring. In contrast, silver birch showed the lowest sensitivity to the tested climatic factors (demonstrating sensitivity to winter precipitation in a few sites), suggesting tolerance to weather fluctuations. The TRW of the alien species was primarily sensitive to climatic factors related to water regime in the summer of the year preceding the formation of tree-ring, implying differences in mechanisms regulating wood increment. Nevertheless, temperature in the dormant period was significant for European larch in a few sites, suggesting sensitivity to cold damage. The variation of TRW of Populus hybrids diverged from others, as their growth was negatively correlated with the temperature in autumn, spring, and summer and positively correlated with water balance. Although the annual water balance in Latvia is positive, the effect of water deficit on tree growth was apparent.     

Increasing climate sensitivity of beech and pine is not mediated by adaptation and soil characteristics along a precipitation gradient in northeastern Germany

Rising temperature and altered precipitation regimes will lead to severe droughts and concomitant extreme events in the future. Forest ecosystems have shown to be especially prone to climate change. In assessing climate change impacts, many studies focus on high altitude or ecological edge populations where a climate signal is supposedly most pronounced. While these studies represent only a fraction of the forest ecosystems throughout Europe, findings on climate sensitivity of lowland core populations remain comparatively underrepresented.By using tree-ring widths of a large region-wide network of European beech and Scots pine populations along a precipitation gradient in northeastern Germany, we identify main climatic drivers and spatio-temporal patterns in climate sensitivity. Further, we analyze the resistance of tree growth towards drought. Detailed data on soil characteristics was used to interpret climate-growth relationships.Beech was found to be most sensitive to summer drought during early summer at dry sites, whereas pine displayed highest sensitivity for winter temperature at wet sites. The resistance to extreme drought was lower for beech. By splitting the observation period (1964–2017) into an early and late period, we found non-stationary climate-growth relationships for both study species with beech showing an increase in drought sensitivity and pine in winter temperature sensitivity.Overall, beech populations seem to be especially endangered by prospective climate changes, whereas climate-growth relationships of pine seem more ambiguous with a possible trade-off between enhanced photosynthetic activity caused by early photosynthesis in late winter and reduced activity due to summer drought.     

Oak decline in Helsinki portrayed by tree-rings, climate and soil data

Oak decline has recently been observed in and around Helsinki. Tree-ring widths of pedunculate oak were used to assess pre-mortem growth patterns, their dependence on climatic factors and linkages to soil thickness. Tree-ring chronologies were constructed in three tree vigour classes (healthy, declining and dying oaks). Characteristic “summer response” was found as a positive influence of summer precipitation was the most important climatic factor limiting the radial growth in all vigour classes. On the other hand, a differing “winter response” was found for tree-rings of dying and other classes of oaks. The growth of dying oaks was more sensitive to variations in mid-winter temperatures, due presumably to higher risk of frost damage to their roots. Recent summer droughts, which may have increased the potential for bark necrosis due to reinforcing effects from defoliation in decreasing the capability of oaks to acclimatize to winter frost, may thus have played a role in this decline. Amplified water stress was indicated by dendrochronological parameters on sites with shallow soils.     

Effects of climate on diameter growth of co-occurring Fagus sylvatica and Abies alba along an altitudinal gradient

In high-elevation forests, growth is limited by low temperatures, while in Mediterranean climates drought and high temperatures are the main limiting factors. Consequently, the climate-growth relationships on Mont Ventoux, a mountain in the Mediterranean area, are influenced by both factors. Two co-occurring species were studied: silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), whose geographical distribution depends on their low tolerance to summer drought at low altitude/latitude, and low temperatures (late frost and short length of the growing season) at high altitude/latitude. Firs and beeches distributed along an elevational gradient were investigated using dendroecological methods. Silver fir growth was found to be more sensitive to summer water stress than beech. On the other hand, beech growth was more impacted by extreme events such as the 2003 heat wave, and negatively related to earlier budburst, which suggests a higher sensitivity to late frost. These results are confirmed by the different altitudinal effects observed in both species. Beech growth decreases with altitude whereas an optimum of growth potential was observed at intermediate elevations for silver fir. Recent global warming has caused a significant upward shift of these optima. As found for the period 2000–2006, rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall may restrain growth of silver fir. If these trends continue in the future beech might be favored at low altitudes. The species will have a reduced capacity to migrate to higher altitudes due to its sensitivity to late frosts, although an upward shift of silver fir is likely.     

Growth delay by winter precipitation could hinder Juniperus sabina persistence under increasing summer drought

Plants in Mediterranean mountains are particularly vulnerable to climatic change. In these environments, low temperature is combined with water shortage during summer, and as a result, the positive effect of global warming theoretically expanding the growing season length may be counterbalanced by rising drought stress. These circumstances may be exacerbated in the rear edge of species distribution, where warmer conditions occur. Here, we examined the climate-growth relationships of Juniperus sabina, a major prostrate shrub above the treeline in Mediterranean mountains, to investigate climate sensitivity and long-term signals stability in four rear-edge populations from southern Spain. We demonstrate that, over recent decades, local climatic conditions have modulated the response of J. sabina secondary growth to the ongoing climate change. We observed a negative effect of winter-spring moisture on secondary growth that suggests a limitation for earlier growth activity at higher elevation, potentially hindering the ability of J. sabina to compensate forthcoming increases in summer drought. At the driest site, we also detected a positive effect of October precipitation, suggesting a second growth pulse by early autumn. Our results provide an example of how local climatic conditions may limit plastic responses of secondary growth to climatic variability. The implications of growth limitation in J. sabina exceed the species-scale level, since these prostrate shrubs play a critical role as nurse plants and local biodiversity foci in Mediterranean mountains.     

滇西北石卡雪山2个针叶树种森林上限径向生长对温度和降水的响应

基于树木年轮学的理论和方法,建立滇西北高原石卡雪山森林上限丽江云杉(Picea likiangensis)和高山松(Pinus densata)差值年表,运用响应函数研究其与气候因子的关系,进而阐明影响滇西北高原针叶树种径向生长的主要气候因子,并利用冗余分析(RDA)进一步分析并验证树木生长与温度和降水的关系。研究结果表明:石卡雪山森林上限针叶树种径向生长主要受温度影响,温度和降水对树木生长有滞后效应,2个树种对气候响应存在差异。具体表现为(1)丽江云杉径向生长受温度和降水的共同作用,与上年10月平均最低温呈显著负相关,与上年11月平均最高温以及当年7月温度呈显著正相关,上年8月和当年5月降水抑制其生长;(2)高山松径向生长与上年10月平均温和平均最高温、11月平均温呈显著正相关,与当年7月平均温和平均最高温呈显著负相关,与降水未达到显著相关水平;(3)冗余分析与响应函数分析结果基本一致,进一步证明该方法能够有效量化树木径向生长与气候因子的关系。能够为气候变化背景下的滇西北高原森林生态系统管理与保护提供理论依据。     

Influence of climate on tree-ring and earlywood vessel formation in Quercus robur in Latvia

We studied the effects of climatic factors on tree-ring width and vessel lumen area (VLA) in earlywood of English oak (Quercus robur L.) in Latvia. Cores were obtained from healthy canopy oaks in 40 stands located across Latvia. Tree-ring widths and VLA were measured. Principal component analysis was used to arrange the sites along gradients of response of tree-ring width and earlywood to environmental factors. Significant relationships of tree-ring width and mean VLA with climatic factors (mean monthly temperature and precipitation sum) were determined by correlation analysis. Relationships between tree-ring, early- and latewood widths were tested in three sampled stands. The patterns of response of VLA and tree-ring width to environmental factors differed in relation to a west–east gradient of increasing continentality. Three regions of Latvia (western, central and eastern) were distinguished along this gradient. Responses to climate differed between tree-ring width and mean VLA. Occurrence of significant correlations between climatic factors and the proxies differed between regions, likely due to regional differences in temperature and precipitation. Tree-ring width correlated with climatic factors (most commonly with March, May and June temperature and August precipitation of the current growing season and July–August temperatures of the previous growing season); VLA was more strongly related to climatic factors, particularly with temperature in winter and spring months. The proportion of significant correlation coefficients with climatic factors differed between the regions. Among sites, significant correlation of tree-ring width with temperature in spring and summer was more frequent in the western region, while correlation with winter temperature of the previous growing season and precipitation in August was more frequent in the eastern region. For VLA, the frequency of significant correlation coefficients with temperature in winter and spring was higher in the eastern region.     

Climate sensitivity of radial growth in European beech (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Fagus sylvatica</Emphasis> L.) at different aspects in southwestern Germany

The climate sensitivity of radial growth in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) was analyzed within a narrow valley in the Swabian Alb (southwestern Germany). We collected stem disks from three aspects (NE, NW and SW) of trees belonging to different social classes. Common climatic factors limiting growth across the valley were identified using a principal component analysis (PCA). Further, we performed hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), redundancy analysis (RDA) and bootstrapped correlation analysis to reveal differences in chronologies and climate-growth relationships between aspect and social class. Climatic variables considered in our analyses were monthly and seasonal data on temperature and precipitation, as well as a self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). We identified drought in the period June–August as the most prominent factor limiting growth across the valley. Dominant and co-dominant trees at the NW and SW aspects were found to be particularly drought sensitive, whereas intermediate trees were less susceptible to drought. Underlying causes of established climate–growth relationships are discussed in the context of drought susceptibility, tree-size modulation and tree physiological processes.     

Plasticity in Dendroclimatic Response across the Distribution Range of Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis)

We investigated the variability of the climate-growth relationship of Aleppo pine across its distribution range in the Mediterranean Basin. We constructed a network of tree-ring index chronologies from 63 sites across the region. Correlation function analysis identified the relationships of tree-ring index to climate factors for each site. We also estimated the dominant climatic gradients of the region using principal component analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean temperature and total precipitation from 1,068 climatic gridpoints. Variation in ring width index was primarily related to precipitation and secondarily to temperature. However, we found that the dendroclimatic relationship depended on the position of the site along the climatic gradient. In the southern part of the distribution range, where temperature was generally higher and precipitation lower than the regional average, reduced growth was also associated with warm and dry conditions. In the northern part, where the average temperature was lower and the precipitation more abundant than the regional average, reduced growth was associated with cool conditions. Thus, our study highlights the substantial plasticity of Aleppo pine in response to different climatic conditions. These results do not resolve the source of response variability as being due to either genetic variation in provenance, to phenotypic plasticity, or a combination of factors. However, as current growth responses to inter-annual climate variability vary spatially across existing climate gradients, future climate-growth relationships will also likely be determined by differential adaptation and/or acclimation responses to spatial climatic variation. The contribution of local adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity across populations to the persistence of species under global warming could be decisive for prediction of climate change impacts across populations. In this sense, a more complex forest dynamics modeling approach that includes the contribution of genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity can improve the reliability of the ecological inferences derived from the climate-growth relationships.     

Climatic factors affecting the tree-ring width of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula ermanii</Emphasis> at the timberline on Mount Norikura,central Japan

Tree-ring-width chronology of Betula ermanii was developed at the timberline (2,400 m a.s.l.) on Mount Norikura in central Japan, and climatic factors affecting the tree-ring width of B. ermanii were examined. Three monthly climatic data (mean temperature, insolation duration, and sum of precipitation) were used for the analysis. The tree-ring width of B. ermanii was negatively correlated with the December and January temperatures and with the January precipitation prior to the growth. However, why high temperatures and heavy snow in winter had negative effects on the growth of B. ermanii is unknown. The tree-ring width was positively correlated with summer temperatures during June–August of the current year. The tree-ring width was also positively correlated with the insolation duration in July of the current year. In contrast, the tree-ring width was negatively correlated with summer precipitation during July–September of the current year. However, these negative correlations of summer precipitation do not seem to be independent of temperature and insolation duration, i.e., substantial precipitation reduces the insolation duration and temperature. Therefore, it is suggested that significant insolation duration and high temperature due to less precipitation in summer of the current year increase the radial growth of B. ermanii at the timberline. The results were also compared with those of our previous study conducted at the lower altitudinal limit of B. ermanii (approximately 1,600 m a.s.l.) on Mount Norikura. This study suggests that the climatic factors that increase the radial growth of B. ermanii differ between its upper and lower altitudinal limits.     

Seasonal climatic niche and migration movements of Double‐crested Cormorants

Avian migrants are challenged by seasonal adverse climatic conditions and energetic costs of long‐distance flying. Migratory birds may track or switch seasonal climatic niche between the breeding and non‐breeding grounds. Satellite tracking enables avian ecologists to investigate seasonal climatic niche and circannual movement patterns of migratory birds. The Double‐crested Cormorant (Nannopterum auritum, hereafter cormorant) wintering in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) migrates to the Northern Great Plains and Great Lakes and is of economic importance because of its impacts on aquaculture. We tested the climatic niche switching hypothesis that cormorants would switch climatic niche between summer and winter because of substantial differences in climate between the non‐breeding grounds in the subtropical region and breeding grounds in the northern temperate region. The ordination analysis of climatic niche overlap indicated that cormorants had separate seasonal climatic niche consisting of seasonal mean monthly minimum and maximum temperature, seasonal mean monthly precipitation, and seasonal mean wind speed. Despite non‐overlapping summer and winter climatic niches, cormorants appeared to be subjected to similar wind speed between winter and summer habitats and were consistent with similar hourly flying speed between winter and summer. Therefore, substantial differences in temperature and precipitation may lead to the climatic niche switching of fish‐eating cormorants, a dietary specialist, between the breeding and non‐breeding grounds.     

Diversity of forest vegetation across a strong gradient of climatic continentality: Western Sayan Mountains, southern Siberia

Southern Siberian mountain ranges encompass strong climatic contrasts from the relatively oceanic northern foothills to strongly continental intermountain basins in the south. Landscape-scale climatic differences create vegetation patterns, which are analogous to the broad-scale vegetation zonation over large areas of northern Eurasia. In their southern, continental areas, these mountains harbour forest types which potentially resemble the full-glacial forests recently reconstructed for Central Europe. To identify forest vegetation–environment relationships in the southern Siberian mountain ranges, forest vegetation of the Western Sayan Mountains was sampled on a 280 km transect running from the northern foothills with oceanic climatic features to the continental Central Tuvinian Basin in the south. Based on the species composition, vegetation was classified into hemiboreal forests, occurring at drier and summer-warm sites with high-pH soil, and taiga, occurring at wetter, summer-cool sites with acidic soil. Hemiboreal forests included Betula pendula-Pinus sylvestris mesic forest, Larix sibirica dry forest and Pinus sylvestris dry forest. Taiga included Abies sibirica-Betula pendula wet forest, Abies sibirica-Pinus sibirica mesic forest and Pinus sibirica-Picea obovata continental forest. Hemiboreal forests were richer in vascular plant species, while taiga was richer in ground-dwelling cryptogams. Vegetation–environment relationships were analysed by indirect and direct ordination. Winter and summer temperatures and precipitation exerted a dominant influence on species composition. Soil pH was also an important correlate of species composition, but this factor itself was probably controlled by precipitation. At a more local scale, the main source of variation in species composition was topography, producing landscape patterns of contrasting plant communities on slopes of different aspects and valley bottoms. The response of tree species to major environmental factors was expressed with Huisman–Olff–Fresco models. Larix sibirica appeared to be most resistant to drought and winter frosts, Pinus sibirica was adapted to low temperatures both in winter and summer, and Picea obovata had an intermediate response to climate. Betula pendula, Pinus sylvestris and Populus tremula were associated with the warmest sites with intermediate precipitation, while Abies sibirica was the most moisture-demanding species, sensitive to deep winter frosts.     

Contrasting climate-growth relationship between Larix gmelinii and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica along a latitudinal gradient in Daxing’an Mountains,China

The Daxing’an Mountains is one of the areas with the most serious climate warming in northern China. Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii) and Mongolian Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) are two major coniferous species in boreal forests of the region. Their growth-climate relationship is crucial for understanding the effects of climate change on boreal forest ecosystems. To examine and compare the changes of climate-growth relationship between larch and pine, a total of 418 tree-ring cores of the two species were collected at six sites in the Daxing’an Mountains, and the tree-ring chronologies were developed. The results showed that water availability (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI) played a key role in the stable growth of larch and pine. The temperature and precipitation in January, June-August are important factors affecting the radial growth of the two coniferous species along the latitude gradient. The correlation coefficients of growth and the seasonal temperature and precipitation of larch and pine showed a completely opposite trend with the increase of latitude. In summer and autumn, the correlation coefficients between larch growth and seasonal mean temperature decreased first and then increased with the increase of latitude, while that of pine, on the contrary, increased first and then decreased. In winter, spring and autumn, the correlation coefficients between larch growth and seasonal total precipitation decreased first and then increased with the increase of latitude, while that of pine was opposite. However, the correlation coefficients between larch and pine growth and PDSI showed the same trend with the increase of latitude, decreasing at first and then increasing. Before and after rapid warming (around 1980), the correlation coefficients between larch and pine growth and PDSI showed a completely opposite change. Our findings emphasize that the growth-climate relationships of Dahurian larch and Mongolian Scotts pine shows an opposite trend with latitude, which means that the two species may exhibit a completely opposite response with climate change along the latitude gradient.     

Large-scale climatic variability and radial increment variation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Picea abies</Emphasis> (L.) Karst. in central and northern Europe

High-frequency variation of Norway spruce radial increment [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] and its dependence on various climatic variables was compared in stands across latitudinal and altitudinal transects in southwestern and eastern Germany, Norway, and Finland. The tested variables included local temperature and precipitation, northern hemisphere temperature anomalies, and the climatic teleconnection patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic Jet, East Atlantic/West Russia, and Scandinavian patterns). Climatic impact on radial increment increased towards minimum and maximum values of the long-term temperature and precipitation regimes, i.e. trees growing under average conditions respond less strongly to climatic variation. Increment variation was clearly correlated with temperature. Warm Mays promoted radial increments in all regions. If the long-term average temperature sum at a stand was below 1,200-1,300 degree days, above average summer temperature increased radial increment. In regions with more temperate climate, water availability was also a growth-limiting factor. However, in those cases where absolute precipitation sum was clearly related to radial increment variation, its effect was dependent on temperature-induced water stress. The estimated dates of initiation and cessation of growing season and growing season length were not clearly related to annual radial increment. Significant correlations were found between radial increment and climatic teleconnection indices, especially with the winter, May and August North Atlantic Oscillation indices, but it is not easy to find a physiological interpretation for these findings.     

Morphological Variation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Keratella cochlearis</Emphasis> (Gosse) in a Backwater of the River Thames

The morphological variation of Keratella cochlearis in a Thames backwater has been studied over 4 years. There was a general inverse relationship between lorica length and temperature, but the annual cycle of change depended upon the rate of change of the temperature, and there was considerable variation between years. There was a similar inverse relationship between posterior spine length and temperature, and a shift in both relationships depending on whether the temperature was increasing or decreasing. As the water temperature increased from winter to summer the lorica and posterior spine were longer than at the same temperature as the water cooled from summer to winter. This shift can be modified by anomalous temperatures, such as a late spring or a cool summer.The form lacking a posterior spine usually, but not consistently, had a longer lorica than the typical spined forms. It usually disappeared from the samples at the end of November and did not reappear until March, although with a mild autumn and winter it persisted until January before disappearing. Forms without posterior spines did not all have the same origins.     

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among‐population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long‐term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long‐term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species‐interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.     

Site-contingent responses to drought of core and relict Tetraclinis articulata populations from Morocco and Spain

The growth responses to climate variability are still unknown in locally threatened conifers from dry regions, but this information is necessary for improving the conservation of relict populations under increasing aridification. We characterized the radial growth patterns and responses to climate of Tetraclinis articulata, a Cupressaceae tree endemic to the western Mediterranean Basin, in a relict population located in southwestern Spain (Doñana) and two populations from the northern Morocco where the species core habitat is found (Tétouan, Ifarten). We assessed climate-growth relationships by using tree-ring width, climate data, drought and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. Climate-growth analyses were refined using the climwin R package to select the most informative statistical models. The main climatic constraints of growth were inferred by using the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model explicitly considering non-linear climate-growth relationships. Tetraclinis articulata growth was favored by wet conditions from the prior autumn to the spring of the growth year. In Doñana, warmer May conditions led to growth decline but this negative effect could be reversed by wet-warm conditions in the prior late autumn. Growth in the two Moroccan sites was constrained by 6- to 18-month long droughts peaking in summer, which account for cumulative water deficit since the previous autumn. Winter and early spring precipitation were the main climate drivers of growth in the Moroccan T. articulata populations, and their year-to-year variability was linked to the NAO. The VS model simulations showed that T. articulata growth is enhanced by wet soil conditions in late winter and early spring, probably recharging shallow soil water pools. The VS model also confirmed that warmer spring-summer conditions could amplify drought stress and threaten the long-term persistence of the relict Doñana population.     

Climate impacts on Mediterranean blue tit survival: an investigation across seasons and spatial scales

In some hole nesting passerine species, long‐term monitoring data are available for several geographically independent populations. Climate forcing can then be documented and predictions made on the scale of distribution ranges. Several demographic studies of Paridae report dramatic impacts of wintertime climatic factors. However, these studies were undertaken in populations located in the northern parts of the species' ranges. Studies on the survival of Paridae in their southern ranges are necessary in order to assess potential latitudinal variation in climate forcing on survival. Based on monitoring of individual adult blue tits (Parus caeruleus), the effects of climatic factors on annual survival were assessed in three distinct Mediterranean populations. In these regions, climatic conditions in early summer might be expected to have a strong impact because they can be extremely hot and dry and because at this time of year Paridae are subjected to intrinsic constraints that stem from energetically costly postbreeding moult, recovery from reproductive costs, and from population densities inflated by the new cohort of fledglings. The impact of climatic conditions in early summer was, thus, addressed in addition to that prevailing in winter. In order to consider a large number of local climatic variables while limiting statistical power loss, integrative indices of local climate were built using multivariate techniques. In addition, the NAO and three large‐scale factors that are closely linked with atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the intertropical zone were considered as potentially influential factors in winter and early summer. Relationships between blue tit survival and indices of local temperature and precipitation in winter and in early summer were detected. Adult survival also correlated with a large‐scale tropical index in early summer: rainfall in the Sahel. This is one of the first quantitative indications that fluctuations in summer climatic conditions explain a significant part of the temporal variation in adult survival in unconnected populations of a sedentary European vertebrate. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that summertime local climates in Western Europe are closely linked with atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the intertropical zone.     

Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex

A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40‐year tree ring record and a 30‐year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (?10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (?26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving‐window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate–growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the ‘climate hiatus’. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone.