Cross-Sectional Association between Length of Incarceration and Selected Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases in Two Male Prisons of Mexico City

Background

Mexico City prisons are characterized by overcrowded facilities and poor living conditions for housed prisoners. Chronic disease profile is characterized by low prevalence of self reported hypertension (2.5%) and diabetes (1.8%) compared to general population; 9.5% of male inmates were obese. There is limited evidence regarding on the exposure to prison environment over prisoner’s health status; particularly, on cardiovascular disease risk factors. The objective of this study is to assess the relationship between length of incarceration and selected risk factors for non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs).

Methods and Findings

We performed a cross-sectional analysis using data from two large male prisons in Mexico City (n = 14,086). Using quantile regression models we assessed the relationship between length of incarceration and selected risk factors for NCDs; stratified analysis by age at admission to prison was performed. We found a significant negative trend in BMI and WC across incarceration length quintiles. BP had a significant positive trend with a percentage change increase around 5% mmHg. The greatest increase in systolic blood pressure was observed in the older age at admission group.

Conclusions

This analysis provides insight into the relationship between length of incarceration and four selected risk factors for NCDs; screening for high blood pressure should be guarantee in order to identify at risk individuals and linked to the prison’s health facility. It is important to assess prison environment features to approach potential risk for developing NCDs in this context.     

Epidemiology of Spinal Cord Injuries and Risk Factors for Complete Injuries in Guangdong,China: A Retrospective Study

Background

Spinal cord injuries are highly disabling and deadly injuries. Currently, few studies focus on non-traumatic spinal cord injuries, and there is little information regarding the risk factors for complete injuries. This study aims to describe the demographics and the injury characteristics for both traumatic and non-traumatic spinal cord injuries and to explore the risk factors for complete spinal cord injuries.

Methods

A retrospective study was performed by reviewing the medical records of 3,832 patients with spinal cord injuries who were first admitted to the sampled hospitals in Guangdong, China. The demographics and injury characteristics of the patients were described and compared between the different groups using the chi-square test. Logistic regression was conducted to analyze the risk factors for complete spinal cord injuries.

Results

The proportion of patients increased from 7.0% to 14.0% from 2003 to 2011. The male-to-female ratio was 3.0∶1. The major cause of spinal cord injuries was traffic accidents (21.7%). Many of the injured were workers (36.2%), peasants (22.8%), and unemployed people (13.9%); these occupations accounted for 72.9% of the total sample. A multivariate logistic regression model revealed that the OR (95% CI) for male gender compared to female gender was 1.25 (1.07–1.89), the OR (95%CI) for having a spinal fracture was 1.56 (1.35–2.60), the OR (95%CI) for having a thoracic injury was 1.23 (1.10–2.00), and the OR (95%CI) for having complications was 2.47 (1.96–3.13).

Conclusion

The proportion of males was higher than the proportion of females. Workers, peasants and the unemployed comprised the high-risk occupational categories. Male gender, having a spinal fracture, having a thoracic injury, and having complications were the major risk factors for a complete injury. We recommend that preventive measures should focus on high-risk populations, such as young males.     

Excess Mortality Attributable to Clostridium difficile and Risk Factors for Infection in an Historic Cohort of Hospitalised Patients Followed Up in the United Kingdom Death Register

Methods

We compared time from hospital admission to death in a probability sample of 100 Clostridium difficile infected cases and a probability sample of 98 non-cases admitted to an English teaching hospital between 2005 and 2007 with follow up in the UK national death register using survival analysis.

Results

Clostridium difficile infection was associated with a 50% increased risk of death (Hazard Ratio 1.51 (95% CI: 1.05–2.19 p = 0.03) at between five to eight years in Cox Regression analysis adjusting for age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, diagnosis of a malignant condition and insertion of a nasogastric tube during admission. Acquisition of Clostridium difficile infection was independently associated with an almost six fold higher odds of being admitted with a diagnosis of infection of any other type (OR 5.79 (2.19, 15.25) p<0.001).

Conclusions

Our results strongly support continued priority being given to improve prevention and treatment of Clostridium difficile infection in the English National Health Service particularly in patients admitted with an infection. Our results may be applicable to other health systems.     

Risk Factors for Invasive Cryptococcus neoformans Diseases: A Case-Control Study

Background

Cryptococcus neoformans is a ubiquitous environmental fungus that can cause life-threatening meningitis and fungemia, often in the presence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), liver cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus, or other medical conditions. To distinguish risk factors from comorbidities, we performed a hospital-based, density-sampled, matched case-control study.

Methods

All new-onset cryptococcal meningitis cases and cryptococcemia cases at a university hospital in Taiwan from 2002–2010 were retrospectively identified from the computerized inpatient registry and were included in this study. Controls were selected from those hospitalized patients not experiencing cryptococcal meningitis or cryptococcemia. Controls and cases were matched by admission date, age, and gender. Conditional logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors.

Results

A total of 101 patients with cryptococcal meningitis (266 controls) and 47 patients with cryptococcemia (188 controls), of whom 32 patients had both cryptococcal meningitis and cryptococcemia, were included in this study. Multivariate regression analysis showed that AIDS (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 181.4; p < 0.001), decompensated liver cirrhosis (aOR = 8.5; p = 0.008), and cell-mediated immunity (CMI)-suppressive regimens without calcineurin inhibitors (CAs) (aOR = 15.9; p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for cryptococcal meningitis. Moreover, AIDS (aOR = 216.3, p < 0.001), decompensated liver cirrhosis (aOR = 23.8; p < 0.001), CMI-suppressive regimens without CAs (aOR = 7.3; p = 0.034), and autoimmune diseases (aOR = 9.3; p = 0.038) were independent risk factors for developing cryptococcemia. On the other hand, diabetes mellitus and other medical conditions were not found to be risk factors for cryptococcal meningitis or cryptococcemia.

Conclusions

The findings confirm AIDS, decompensated liver cirrhosis, CMI-suppressive regimens without CAs, and autoimmune diseases are risk factors for invasive C. neoformans diseases.     

The Epidemiology of Hypertension in Uganda: Findings from the National Non-Communicable Diseases Risk Factor Survey

Background

Hypertension is an important contributor to global burden of disease and mortality, and is a growing public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa. However, most sub-Saharan African countries lack detailed countrywide data on hypertension and other non-communicable diseases (NCD) risk factors that would provide benchmark information for design of appropriate interventions. We analyzed blood pressure data from Uganda’s nationwide NCD risk factor survey conducted in 2014, to describe the prevalence and distribution of hypertension in the Ugandan population, and to identify the associated factors.

Methods

The NCD risk factor survey drew a countrywide sample stratified by the four regions of the country, and with separate estimates for rural and urban areas. The World Health Organization’s STEPs tool was used to collect data on demographic and behavioral characteristics, and physical and biochemical measurements. Prevalence rate ratios (PRR) using modified Poison regression modelling was used to identify factors associated with hypertension.

Results

Of the 3906 participants, 1033 were classified as hypertensive, giving an overall prevalence of 26.4%. Prevalence was highest in the central region at 28.5%, followed by the eastern region at 26.4%, western region at 26.3%, and northern region at 23.3%. Prevalence in urban areas was 28.9%, and 25.8% in rural areas. The differences between regions, and between rural-urban areas were not statistically significant. Only 7.7% of participants with hypertension were aware of their high blood pressure. The prevalence of pre-hypertension was also high at 36.9%. The only modifiable factor found to be associated with hypertension was higher body mass index (BMI). Compared to participants with BMI less than 25 kg/m², prevalence was significantly higher among participants with BMI between 25 to 29.9 kg/m² with an adjusted PRR = 1.46 [95% CI = 1.25–1.71], and even higher among obese participants (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²) with an adjusted PRR = 1.60 [95% CI = 1.29–1.99]. The un-modifiable factor found to be associated with hypertension was older age with an adjusted PRR of 1.02 [95% CI = 1.02–1.03] per yearly increase in age.

Conclusions

The prevalence of hypertension in Uganda is high, with no significant differences in distribution by geographical location. Only 7.7% of persons with hypertension were aware of their hypertension, indicating a high burden of undiagnosed and un-controlled high blood pressure. Thus a big percentage of persons with hypertension are at high risk of hypertension-related cardiovascular NCDs.     

Cigarette Experimentation and the Population Attributable Fraction for Associated Genetic and Non-Genetic Risk Factors

Background

We, and others, have shown that experimenting with cigarettes is a function of both non-genetic and genetic factors. In this analysis we ask: how much of the total risk of experimenting with cigarettes, among those who had not experimented with cigarettes when they enrolled in a prospective cohort, is attributable to genetic factors and to non-genetic factors?

Methods

Participants (N = 1,118 Mexican origin youth), recruited from a large population-based cohort study in Houston, Texas, provided prospective data on cigarette experimentation over three years. Non-genetic data were elicited twice – baseline and follow-up. Participants were genotyped for 672 functional and tagging variants in the dopamine, serotonin and opioid pathways.

Results

In the overall model, the adjusted combined non-genetic PAF was 71.2% and the adjusted combined genetic PAF was 58.5%. Among committed never smokers the adjusted combined non-genetic PAF was 67.0% and the adjusted combined genetic PAF was 53.5%. However, among cognitively susceptible youth, the adjusted combined non-genetic PAF was 52.0% and the adjusted combined genetic PAF was 68.4%.

Conclusions

Our results suggest there may be differences in genotypes between youth who think they will try cigarettes in the future compared to their peers who think they will not and underscore the possibility that the relative influence of genetic vs. non-genetic factors on the uptake of smoking may vary between these two groups of youth.

Impact

A clearer understanding of the relative role of genetic vs. non-genetic factors in the uptake of smoking may have implications for the design of prevention programs.     

Educational Degrees and Adult Mortality Risk in the United States

We present the first published estimates of U. S. adult mortality risk by detailed educational degree, including advanced postsecondary degrees. We use the 1997–2002 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) Linked Mortality Files and Cox proportional hazards models to reveal wide graded differences in mortality by educational degree. Compared to adults who have a professional degree, those with an MA are 5 percent, those with a BA are 26 percent, those with an AA are 44 percent, those with some college are 65 percent, high school graduates are 80 percent, and those with a GED or 12 or fewer years of schooling are at least 95 percent more likely to die during the follow-up period, net of sociodemographic controls. These differentials vary by gender and cohort. Advanced educational degrees are associated not only with increased workforce skill level but with a reduced risk of death.     

Urbanicity and Lifestyle Risk Factors for Cardiometabolic Diseases in Rural Uganda: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Urban living is associated with unhealthy lifestyles that can increase the risk of cardiometabolic diseases. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where the majority of people live in rural areas, it is still unclear if there is a corresponding increase in unhealthy lifestyles as rural areas adopt urban characteristics. This study examines the distribution of urban characteristics across rural communities in Uganda and their associations with lifestyle risk factors for chronic diseases.

Methods and Findings

Using data collected in 2011, we examined cross-sectional associations between urbanicity and lifestyle risk factors in rural communities in Uganda, with 7,340 participants aged 13 y and above across 25 villages. Urbanicity was defined according to a multi-component scale, and Poisson regression models were used to examine associations between urbanicity and lifestyle risk factors by quartile of urbanicity. Despite all of the villages not having paved roads and running water, there was marked variation in levels of urbanicity across the villages, largely attributable to differences in economic activity, civil infrastructure, and availability of educational and healthcare services. In regression models, after adjustment for clustering and potential confounders including socioeconomic status, increasing urbanicity was associated with an increase in lifestyle risk factors such as physical inactivity (risk ratio [RR]: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.24), low fruit and vegetable consumption (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.23), and high body mass index (RR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.24, 1.77).

Conclusions

This study indicates that even across rural communities in SSA, increasing urbanicity is associated with a higher prevalence of lifestyle risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases. This finding highlights the need to consider the health impact of urbanization in rural areas across SSA. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Risk Factors for Maternal Mortality in Rural Tigray,Northern Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study

Background

Maternal mortality continues to have devastating impacts in many societies, where it constitutes a leading cause of death, and thus remains a core issue in international development. Nevertheless, individual determinants of maternal mortality are often unclear and subject to local variation. This study aims to characterise individual risk factors for maternal mortality in Tigray, Ethiopia.

Methods

A community-based case-control study was conducted, with 62 cases and 248 controls from six randomly-selected rural districts. All maternal deaths between May 2012 and September 2013 were recruited as cases and a random sample of mothers who delivered in the same communities within the same time period were taken as controls. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent determinants of maternal mortality.

Results

Four independent individual risk factors, significantly associated with maternal death, emerged. Women who were not members of the voluntary Women’s Development Army were more likely to experience maternal death (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.04–4.11), as were women whose husbands or partners had below-median scores for involvement during pregnancy (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.14–4.18). Women with a pre-existing history of other illness were also at increased risk (OR 5.58, 95% CI 2.17–14.30), as were those who had never used contraceptives (OR 2.58, 95% CI 1.37–4.85). Previous pregnancy complications, a below-median number of antenatal care visits and a woman’s lack of involvement in health care decision making were significant bivariable risks that were not significant in the multivariable model.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that interventions aimed at reducing maternal mortality need to focus on encouraging membership of the Women’s Development Army, enhancing husbands’ involvement in maternal health services, improving linkages between maternity care and other disease-specific programmes and ensuring that women with previous illnesses or non-users of contraceptive services are identified and followed-up as being at increased risk during pregnancy and childbirth.     

Maternal and Antenatal Risk Factors for Stillbirths and Neonatal Mortality in Rural Bangladesh: A Case-Control Study

Objective

To identify maternal and antenatal factors associated with stillbirths and neonatal deaths in rural Bangladesh.

Study Design

A prospective cohort study is being conducted to evaluate a maternal and child nutrition program in rural Bangladesh. Cases were all stillbirths and neonatal deaths that occurred in the cohort between March 7, 2011 and December 30, 2011. Verbal autopsies were used to determine cause of death. For each case, four controls were randomly selected from cohort members alive at age 3-months. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with these deaths.

Results

Overall, 112 adverse pregnancy outcomes (44 stillbirths, 19/1,000 births; 68 neonatal deaths, 29/1,000 live births) were reported. Of the stillbirths 25 (56.8%) were fresh. The main causes of neonatal death were birth asphyxia (35%), sepsis (28%) and preterm birth (19%). History of bleeding during pregnancy was the strongest risk factor for stillbirths (adjusted odds ratio 22.4 [95% confidence interval 2.5, 197.5]) and neonatal deaths (adjusted odds ratio 19.6 [95% confidence interval 2.1, 178.8]). Adequate maternal nutrition was associated with decreased risk of neonatal death (adjusted odds ratio 0.4 [95% confidence interval 0.2, 0.8]).

Conclusions

Identifying high-risk pregnancies during gestation and ensuring adequate antenatal and obstetric care needs to be a priority for any community-based maternal and child health program in similar settings.     

The Impact of Dietary and Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Type 2 Diabetes Mortality in Brazil

Background

Trends in food availability and metabolic risk factors in Brazil suggest a shift toward unhealthy dietary patterns and increased cardiometabolic disease risk, yet little is known about the impact of dietary and metabolic risk factors on cardiometabolic mortality in Brazil.

Methods

Based on data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we used comparative risk assessment to estimate the burden of 11 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors on mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in Brazil in 2010. Information on national diets and metabolic risks were obtained from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey, the Food and Agriculture Organization database, and large observational studies including Brazilian adults. Relative risks for each risk factor were obtained from meta-analyses of randomized trials or prospective cohort studies; and disease-specific mortality from the GBD 2010 database. We quantified uncertainty using probabilistic simulation analyses, incorporating uncertainty in dietary and metabolic data and relative risks by age and sex. Robustness of findings was evaluated by sensitivity to varying feasible optimal levels of each risk factor.

Results

In 2010, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and suboptimal diet were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths in Brazil, responsible for 214,263 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 195,073 to 233,936) and 202,949 deaths (95% UI: 194,322 to 211,747), respectively. Among individual dietary factors, low intakes of fruits and whole grains and high intakes of sodium were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths. For premature cardiometabolic deaths (before age 70 years, representing 40% of cardiometabolic deaths), the leading risk factors were suboptimal diet (104,169 deaths; 95% UI: 99,964 to 108,002), high SBP (98,923 deaths; 95%UI: 92,912 to 104,609) and high body-mass index (BMI) (42,643 deaths; 95%UI: 40,161 to 45,111).

Conclusion

suboptimal diet, high SBP, and high BMI are major causes of cardiometabolic death in Brazil, informing priorities for policy initiatives.     

Injuries in Runners; A Systematic Review on Risk Factors and Sex Differences

BackgroundThe popularity of running continues to increase, which means that the incidence of running-related injuries will probably also continue to increase. Little is known about risk factors for running injuries and whether they are sex-specific.ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to review information about risk factors and sex-specific differences for running-induced injuries in adults.ConclusionsPrevious injury and use of orthotic/inserts are risk factors for running injuries. There appeared to be differences in the risk profile of men and women, but as few studies presented results for men and women separately, the results should be interpreted with caution. Further research should attempt to minimize methodological bias by paying attention to recall bias for running injuries, follow-up time, and the participation rate of the identified target group.     

Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors among Employees and Their Families of a Saudi University: An Epidemiological Study

ObjectivesTo assess the prevalence of noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factors among Saudi university employees and their families; to estimate the cardiovascular risk (CVR) amongst the study population in the following 10years.MethodsThe NCD risk factors prevalence was estimated using a cross-sectional approach for a sample of employees and their families aged ≥ 18 years old, in a Saudi university (Riyadh in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; KSA). WHO STEPwise standardized tools were used to estimate NCD risk factors and the Framingham Coronary Heart Risk Score calculator was used to calculate the CVR.ResultsFive thousand and two hundred subjects were invited, of whom 4,500 participated in the study, providing a response rate of 87%. The mean age of participants was 39.3±13.4 years. The majority of participants reported low fruit/vegetables consumption (88%), and physically inactive (77%). More than two thirds of the cohort was found to be either overweight or obese (72%), where 36% were obese, and 59% had abdominal obesity. Of the total cohort, 22–37% were found to suffer from dyslipidaemia, 22% either diabetes or hypertension, with rather low reported current tobacco use (12%). One quarter of participants was estimated to have >10% risk to develop cardiovascular disease within the following 10-years.ConclusionThe prevalence of NCD risk factors was found to be substantially high among the university employees and their families in this study.     

Equine Risk Assessment for Insecticides Used in Adult Mosquito Management

Since West Nile virus (WNV) was introduced to New York City in 1999, it has subsequently spread through the Americas, creating human and animal health risks. Our equine risk assessment focused on three pyrethroid insecticides (phenothrin, resmethrin, and permethrin), pyrethrins, and two organophosphate insecticides (malathion and naled). Piperonyl butoxide, a synergist commonly used in pyrethroids, was also assessed. The objective was to use deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment methodologies to evaluate health risks to horses from vector management tactics used for control of adult mosquitoes. Our exposure estimates were derived from the Kenaga nomogram for food deposition, AgDRIFT® for deposition onto soil and hair, AERMOD for ambient air concentrations, and PRZM-EXAMS for water concentrations. We used the risk quotient (RQ) method for our assessment with the RQ level of concern (LOC) set at 1.0. RQs were determined by comparing the exposure to no-observable-effect-levels. Acute deterministic RQs ranged from 0.0004 for phenothrin to 0.2 for naled. Subchronic deterministic RQs ranged from 0.001 for phenothrin to 0.6 for naled. The probabilistic assessment revealed estimates of deterministic acute and subchronic RQs were highly conservative. Our assessment revealed that risks to horses from adult mosquito insecticides are low and not likely to exceed the LOC.     

Risk Factors for Fatality among Confirmed Adult Dengue Inpatients in Singapore: A Matched Case-Control Study

Objectives

To identify demographic, clinical and laboratory risk factors for death due to dengue fever in adult patients in Singapore.

Methods

Multi-center retrospective study of hospitalized adult patients with confirmed dengue fever in Singapore between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2008. Non-fatal controls were selected by matching age and year of infection with fatal cases. World Health Organization 1997, 2009 criteria were applied to define dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), warning signs and severe dengue. Statistical significance was assessed by conditional logistic regression modeling.

Results

Significantly more fatal cases than matched controls had pre-existing co-morbid conditions, and presented with abdominal pain/tenderness. Median pulse rates were significantly higher while myalgia was significantly less frequent in cases. . Fatal cases also had higher leucocyte counts, platelet counts, serum sodium, potassium, urea, creatine and bilirubin levels on admission compared to controls. There was no statistical significant difference between the prevalence of DHF and hematocrit level among cases and controls. Multivariate analysis showed myalgia and leucocyte count at presentation were independent predictors of fatality (adjusted odds ratios 0.09 and 2.94 respectively). None of the controls was admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) or given blood transfusion, while 71.4% and 28.6% of fatal cases received ICU admission and blood transfusion.

Conclusions

Absence of myalgia and leucocytosis on admission were independently associated with fatality in our matched case-control study. Fatalities were also commonly associated with co-morbidities and clinicians should be alarmed if dengue patients fulfilled severe dengue case definition on admission.     

Risk Factors for Long-Term Mortality after Hospitalization for Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A 5-Year Prospective Follow-Up Study

Background

Contributors to long-term mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remain unclear, with little attention paid to pneumonia etiology. We examined long-term survival, causes of death, and risk factors for long-term mortality in adult patients who had been hospitalized for CAP, with emphasis on demographic, clinical, laboratory, and microbiological characteristics.

Methods

Two hundred and sixty-seven consecutive patients admitted in 2008–2011 to a general hospital with CAP were prospectively recruited and followed up. Patients who died during hospital stay were excluded. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected within 48 hours of admission. Extensive microbiological work-up was performed to establish the etiology of CAP in 63% of patients. Mortality data were obtained from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Cox regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for all-cause mortality.

Results

Of 259 hospital survivors of CAP (median age 66 years), 79 (30.5%) died over a median of 1,804 days (range 1–2,520 days). Cumulative 5-year survival rate was 72.9% (95% CI 67.4–78.4%). Standardized mortality ratio was 2.90 for men and 2.05 for women. The main causes of death were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), vascular diseases, and malignancy. Independent risk factors for death were the following (hazard ratio, 95% CI): age (1.83 per decade, 1.47–2.28), cardiovascular disease (2.63, 1.61–4.32), COPD (2.09, 1.27–3.45), immunocompromization (1.98, 1.17–3.37), and low serum albumin level at admission (0.75 per 5g/L higher, 0.58–0.96), whereas active smoking was protective (0.32, 0.14–0.74); active smokers were younger than non-smokers (P < 0.001). Microbial etiology did not predict mortality.

Conclusions

Results largely confirm substantial comorbidity-related 5-year mortality after hospitalization for CAP and the impact of several well-known risk factors for death, and extend previous findings on the prognostic value of serum albumin level at hospital admission. Pneumonia etiology had no prognostic value, but this remains to be substantiated by further studies using extensive diagnostic microbiological methods in the identification of causative agents of CAP.     

Approach to Assessment of Risk Factors in Mild Hypertension

Criteria are urgently needed for the early detection of subjects with only mildly raised blood pressure who may be at high risk of developing the complications of hypertension. As a step towards the establishment of such criteria we have examined the association of certain possible “risk” factors—namely, x-ray evidence of cardiac enlargement, high serum cholesterol levels, effort pain, E.C.G. abnormalities, and high systolic blood pressure—with fatal or morbid endpoints in a five-year follow-up study of subjects whose diastolic pressure had been found initially to be between 95 and 114 mm Hg. The index group consisted of 22 patients in whom these end-points occurred. They comprised death from cardiovascular disease, clinical or E.C.G. deterioration, and either an increase in diastolic pressure of at least 10 mm Hg or a diastolic pressure of 115 mm Hg or both. The control group consisted of 22 subjects chosen at random from other respondents with the same range of diastolic pressures and the same age and sex distribution.“Any two or more” of the possible risk factors examined were found to occur significantly more often in the index group than in the controls, suggesting a possible approach to the early detection of high-risk subjects. The value of longterm studies along these lines and the urgent need for them are emphasized.