共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Extant variation in temperate and boreal plant species has been influenced by both demographic histories associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles and adaptation to local climate. We used sequence capture to investigate the role of these neutral and adaptive processes in shaping diversity in black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa). Nucleotide diversity and Tajima's D were lowest at replacement sites and highest at intergenic sites, while LD showed the opposite pattern. With samples grouped into three populations arrayed latitudinally, effective population size was highest in the north, followed by south and centre, and LD was highest in the south followed by the north and centre, suggesting a possible northern glacial refuge. FST outlier analysis revealed that promoter, 5′‐UTR and intronic sites were enriched for outliers compared with coding regions, while no outliers were found among intergenic sites. Codon usage bias was evident, and genes with synonymous outliers had 30% higher average expression compared with genes containing replacement outliers. These results suggest divergent selection related to regulation of gene expression is important to local adaptation in P. trichocarpa. Finally, within‐population selective sweeps were much more pronounced in the central population than in putative northern and southern refugia, which may reflect the different demographic histories of the populations and concomitant effects on signatures of genetic hitchhiking from standing variation. 相似文献
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Grow with the flow: a latitudinal cline in physiology is associated with more variable precipitation in Erythranthe cardinalis 下载免费PDF全文
Local adaptation is commonly observed in nature: organisms perform well in their natal environment, but poorly outside it. Correlations between traits and latitude, or latitudinal clines, are among the most common pieces of evidence for local adaptation, but identifying the traits under selection and the selective agents is challenging. Here, we investigated a latitudinal cline in growth and photosynthesis across 16 populations of the perennial herb Erythranthe cardinalis (Phrymaceae). Using machine learning methods, we identify interannual variation in precipitation as a likely selective agent: southern populations from more variable environments had higher photosynthetic rates and grew faster. We hypothesize that selection may favour a more annualized life history – grow now rather than save for next year – in environments where severe droughts occur more often. Thus, our study provides insight into how species may adapt if Mediterranean climates become more variable due to climate change. 相似文献
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Evolutionary dynamics of the leaf phenological cycle in an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient 下载免费PDF全文
C. Firmat S. Delzon J.‐M. Louvet J. Parmentier A. Kremer 《Journal of evolutionary biology》2017,30(12):2116-2131
It has been predicted that environmental changes will radically alter the selective pressures on phenological traits. Long‐lived species, such as trees, will be particularly affected, as they may need to undergo major adaptive change over only one or a few generations. The traits describing the annual life cycle of trees are generally highly evolvable, but nothing is known about the strength of their genetic correlations. Tight correlations can impose strong evolutionary constraints, potentially hampering the adaptation of multivariate phenological phenotypes. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary, genetic and environmental components of the timing of leaf unfolding and senescence within an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient. Population divergence, estimated from in situ and common‐garden data, was compared to expectations under neutral evolution, based on microsatellite markers. This approach made it possible (1) to evaluate the influence of genetic correlation on multivariate local adaptation to elevation and (2) to identify traits probably exposed to past selective pressures due to the colder climate at high elevation. The genetic correlation was positive but very weak, indicating that genetic constraints did not shape the local adaptation pattern for leaf phenology. Both spring and fall (leaf unfolding and senescence, respectively) phenology timings were involved in local adaptation, but leaf unfolding was probably the trait most exposed to climate change‐induced selection. Our data indicated that genetic variation makes a much smaller contribution to adaptation than the considerable plastic variation displayed by a tree during its lifetime. The evolutionary potential of leaf phenology is, therefore, probably not the most critical aspect for short‐term population survival in a changing climate. 相似文献
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Breaking RAD: an evaluation of the utility of restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing for genome scans of adaptation 下载免费PDF全文
David B. Lowry Sean Hoban Joanna L. Kelley Katie E. Lotterhos Laura K. Reed Michael F. Antolin Andrew Storfer 《Molecular ecology resources》2017,17(2):142-152
Understanding how and why populations evolve is of fundamental importance to molecular ecology. Restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing (RADseq), a popular reduced representation method, has ushered in a new era of genome‐scale research for assessing population structure, hybridization, demographic history, phylogeography and migration. RADseq has also been widely used to conduct genome scans to detect loci involved in adaptive divergence among natural populations. Here, we examine the capacity of those RADseq‐based genome scan studies to detect loci involved in local adaptation. To understand what proportion of the genome is missed by RADseq studies, we developed a simple model using different numbers of RAD‐tags, genome sizes and extents of linkage disequilibrium (length of haplotype blocks). Under the best‐case modelling scenario, we found that RADseq using six‐ or eight‐base pair cutting restriction enzymes would fail to sample many regions of the genome, especially for species with short linkage disequilibrium. We then surveyed recent studies that have used RADseq for genome scans and found that the median density of markers across these studies was 4.08 RAD‐tag markers per megabase (one marker per 245 kb). The length of linkage disequilibrium for many species is one to three orders of magnitude less than density of the typical recent RADseq study. Thus, we conclude that genome scans based on RADseq data alone, while useful for studies of neutral genetic variation and genetic population structure, will likely miss many loci under selection in studies of local adaptation. 相似文献
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Genetic diversity and structuring across the range of a widely distributed ladybird: focus on rear‐edge populations phenotypically divergent 下载免费PDF全文
Émilie Lecompte Mohand‐Ameziane Bouanani Alexandra Magro Brigitte Crouau‐Roy 《Ecology and evolution》2016,6(15):5517-5529
Population genetics and phenotypic structures are often predicted to vary along the geographic range of a species. This phenomenon would be accentuated for species with large range areas, with discontinuities and marginal populations. We herein compare the genetic patterns of central populations of Coccinella septempunctata L. with those of two phenotypically differentiated populations considered as rear‐edge populations and subspecies based on phenotype (Algeria and Japan). According to the central‐marginal model and expected characteristics of rear‐edge populations, we hypothesize that these rear‐edge populations have (1) a reduced genetic diversity, resulting from their relative isolation over long periods of time, (2) a higher population genetic differentiation, explained by low contemporary gene flow levels, and (3) a relationship between genetic diversity characteristics and phenotypes, due to historical isolation and/or local adaptation. Based on genotyping of 28 populations for 18 microsatellite markers, several levels of regional genetic diversity and differentiation are observed between and within populations, according to their localization: low within‐population genetic diversity and higher genetic differentiation of rear‐edge populations. The genetic structuring clearly dissociates the Algerian and Eastern Asia populations from the others. Geographical patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation support the hypothesis of the central‐marginal model. The pattern observed is in agreement with the phenotypic structure across species range. A clear genetic break between populations of Algeria, the Eastern Asia, and the remaining populations is a dominant feature of the data. Differential local adaptations, absence of gene flow between marginal and central populations, and/or incapacity to mate after colonization, have contributed to their distinct genotypic and phenotypic characteristics. 相似文献
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Matthew Galliart Nora Bello Mary Knapp Jesse Poland Paul St Amand Sara Baer Brian Maricle Adam B. Smith Loretta Johnson 《Global Change Biology》2019,25(3):850-868
Many prior studies have uncovered evidence for local adaptation using reciprocal transplant experiments. However, these studies are rarely conducted for a long enough time to observe succession and competitive dynamics in a community context, limiting inferences for long‐lived species. Furthermore, the genetic basis of local adaptation and genetic associations with climate has rarely been identified. Here, we report on a long‐term (6‐year) experiment conducted under natural conditions focused on Andropogon gerardii, the dominant grass of the North American Great Plains tallgrass ecosystem. We focus on this foundation grass that comprises 80% of tallgrass prairie biomass and is widely used in 20,000 km2 of restoration. Specifically, we asked the following questions: (a) Whether ecotypes are locally adapted to regional climate in realistic ecological communities. (b) Does adaptive genetic variation underpin divergent phenotypes across the climate gradient? (c) Is there evidence of local adaptation if the plants are exposed to competition among ecotypes in mixed ecotype plots? Finally, (d) are local adaptation and genetic divergence related to climate? Reciprocal gardens were planted with 3 regional ecotypes (originating from dry, mesic, wet climate sources) of Andropogon gerardii across a precipitation gradient (500–1,200 mm/year) in the US Great Plains. We demonstrate local adaptation and differentiation of ecotypes in wet and dry environments. Surprisingly, the apparent generalist mesic ecotype performed comparably under all rainfall conditions. Ecotype performance was underpinned by differences in neutral diversity and candidate genes corroborating strong differences among ecotypes. Ecotype differentiation was related to climate, primarily rainfall. Without long‐term studies, wrong conclusions would have been reached based on the first two years. Further, restoring prairies with climate‐matched ecotypes is critical to future ecology, conservation, and sustainability under climate change. 相似文献
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Hall D Luquez V Garcia VM St Onge KR Jansson S Ingvarsson PK 《Evolution; international journal of organic evolution》2007,61(12):2849-2860
A correct timing of growth cessation and dormancy induction represents a critical ecological and evolutionary trade-off between survival and growth in most forest trees (Rehfeldt et al. 1999; Horvath et al. 2003; Howe et al. 2003). We have studied the deciduous tree European Aspen (Populus tremula) across a latitudinal gradient and compared genetic differentiation in phenology traits with molecular markers. Trees from 12 different areas covering 10 latitudinal degrees were cloned and planted in two common gardens. Several phenology traits showed strong genetic differentiation and clinal variation across the latitudinal gradient, with Q(ST) values generally exceeding 0.5. This is in stark contrast to genetic differentiation at several classes of genetic markers (18 neutral SSRs, 7 SSRs located close to phenology candidate genes and 50 SNPs from five phenology candidate genes) that all showed F(ST) values around 0.015. We thus find strong evidence for adaptive divergence in phenology traits across the latitudinal gradient. However, the strong population structure seen at the quantitative traits is not reflected in underlying candidate genes. This result fit theoretical expectations that suggest that genetic differentiation at candidate loci is better described by F(ST) at neutral loci rather than by Q(ST) at the quantitative traits themselves. 相似文献
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Local adaptation and cogradient selection in the alpine plant, Poa hiemata, along a narrow altitudinal gradient 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Byars SG Papst W Hoffmann AA 《Evolution; international journal of organic evolution》2007,61(12):2925-2941
Alpine environments are particularly susceptible to environmental changes associated with global warming but there is potential for alpine plants to adapt to warming if local adaptation occurs and gene flow allows genotypes adapted to low altitudes to colonize higher altitude sites. Here we examine the adaptive potential of a common alpine grass, Poa hiemata, within the restricted alpine habitat of Australian mountains, across a narrow altitudinal gradient replicated in three areas. Grasses at high altitude sites had shorter leaf lengths and larger circumferences than those at lower sites. Transplant experiments with clonal material and plants grown from seed indicated that these differences were partly genetic, with environmental and genetic factors both contributing to the differences between altitudes. Differences in altitudinal forms were also evident in a common garden experiment. Plants showed a home-site advantage in terms of survival. A fitness analysis indicated that at high altitude sites, selection favored plants with short leaves and larger circumferences, whereas these traits were selected in the opposite direction at the low altitude sites. These findings indicate cogradient selection and potential for both plastic and genotypic shifts in response to climate change in P. hiemata. 相似文献
9.
Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity 下载免费PDF全文
Luis Matías Juan C. Linares Ángela Sánchez‐Miranda Alistair S. Jump 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(10):4106-4116
Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species’ geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland‐southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change and demonstrate the importance of incorporating biogeographical variability into predictive models for an accurate prediction of species dynamics as climate changes. 相似文献
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Deanne Cummins W. Jason Kennington Tabitha Rudin‐Bitterli Nicola J. Mitchell 《Global Change Biology》2019,25(9):3151-3162
Terrestrial‐breeding amphibians are likely to be vulnerable to warming and drying climates, as their embryos require consistent moisture for successful development. Adaptation to environmental change will depend on sufficient genetic variation existing within or between connected populations. Here, we use Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data to investigate genome‐wide patterns in genetic diversity, gene flow and local adaptation in a terrestrial‐breeding frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) subject to a rapidly drying climate and recent habitat fragmentation. The species was sampled across 12 central and range‐edge populations (192 samples), and strong genetic structure was apparent, as were high inbreeding coefficients. Populations showed differences in genetic diversity, and one population lost significant genetic diversity in a decade. More than 500 SNP loci were putatively under directional selection, and 413 of these loci were correlated with environmental variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. One locus showed homology to a gene involved in the activation of maturation in Xenopus oocytes, which may facilitate rapid development of embryos in drier climates. The low genetic diversity, strong population structuring and presence of local adaptation revealed in this study shows why management strategies such as targeted gene flow may be necessary to assist isolated populations to adapt to future climates. 相似文献
11.
Studies of the wild grass Anthoxanthum odoratum at the long‐term Park Grass Experiment (PGE, Harpenden, UK) document a well‐known example of rapid plant evolution in response to environmental change. Repeated fertilizer applications have acidified the soil in some experimental plots over the past 150+ years, and Anthoxanthum subpopulations have quickly become locally adapted. Early reciprocal transplants showed subpopulation differentiation specifically in response to soil aluminium (Al) toxicity across the experiment, even at small (30 m) spatial scales. Almost 40 years after its original measurement, we reassessed the degree of local adaptation to soil Al at the PGE using updated phenotyping methods and identified genes with variation linked to the tolerance trait. Root growth assays show that plants are locally adapted to soil Al at both the seedling and adult growth stages, but to a smaller extent than previously inferred. Among a large suite of candidate loci that were previously shown to have Al‐sensitive expression differences between sensitive and tolerant plants, three loci contained SNPs that are associated with both Al tolerance and soil acidity: an Al‐sensitive malate transporter (ALMT), a tonoplast intrinsic protein (TIP) and the putative homolog of the rice cell‐wall modification gene STAR1. Natural genetic variation at these loci is likely to have contributed to the recent rapid evolution at PGE. Continued study of Al tolerance variants in Anthoxanthum will allow us to test hypotheses about the nature and source of genetic variation that enables some species to adapt to soil acidification and other types of rapid environmental change. 相似文献
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John R. Morrongiello Nicholas R. Bond David A. Crook Bob B. M. Wong 《Ecology and evolution》2013,3(11):3855-3867
Whilst changes in freshwater assemblages along gradients of environmental stress have been relatively well studied, we know far less about intraspecific variation to these same stressors. A stressor common in fresh waters worldwide is leachates from terrestrial plants. Leachates alter the physiochemical environment of fresh waters by lowering pH and dissolved oxygen and also releasing toxic compounds such as polyphenols and tannins, all of which can be detrimental to aquatic organisms. We investigated how chronic exposure to Eucalyptus leaf leachate affected the growth and survival of juvenile southern pygmy perch (Nannoperca australis) collected from three populations with different litter inputs, hydrology and observed leachate concentrations. Chronic exposure to elevated leachate levels negatively impacted growth and survival, but the magnitude of these lethal and sublethal responses was conditional on body size and source population. Bigger fish had increased survival at high leachate levels but overall slower growth rates. Body size also varied among populations and fish from the population exposed to the lowest natural leachate concentrations had the highest average stress tolerance. Significant intraspecific variation in both growth and survival caused by Eucalyptus leachate exposure indicates that the magnitude (but not direction) of these stress responses varies across the landscape. This raises the potential for leachate‐induced selection to operate at an among‐population scale. The importance of body size demonstrates that the timing of leachate exposure during ontogeny is central in determining the magnitude of biological response, with early life stages being most vulnerable. Overall, we demonstrate that Eucalyptus leachates are prevalent and potent selective agents that can trigger important sublethal impacts, beyond those associated with more familiar fish kills, and reiterate that dissolved organic carbon is more than just an energy source in aquatic environments. 相似文献
13.
Parabolic variation in sexual selection intensity across the range of a cold‐water pipefish: implications for susceptibility to climate change 下载免费PDF全文
Nuno Monteiro Mário Cunha Lídia Ferreira Natividade Vieira Agostinho Antunes David Lyons Adam G. Jones 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(9):3600-3609
While an understanding of evolutionary processes in shifting environments is vital in the context of rapid ecological change, one of the most potent selective forces, sexual selection, remains curiously unexplored. Variation in sexual selection across a species range, especially across a gradient of temperature regimes, has the potential to provide a window into the possible impacts of climate change on the evolution of mating patterns. Here, we investigated some of the links between temperature and indicators of sexual selection, using a cold‐water pipefish as model. We found that populations differed with respect to body size, length of the breeding season, fecundity, and sexual dimorphism across a wide latitudinal gradient. We encountered two types of latitudinal patterns, either linear, when related to body size, or parabolic in shape when considering variables related to sexual selection intensity, such as sexual dimorphism and reproductive investment. Our results suggest that sexual selection intensity increases toward both edges of the distribution and that the large differences in temperature likely play a significant role. Shorter breeding seasons in the north and reduced periods for gamete production in the south certainly have the potential to alter mating systems, breeding synchrony, and mate monopolization rates. As latitude and water temperature are tightly coupled across the European coasts, the observed patterns in traits related to sexual selection can lead to predictions regarding how sexual selection should change in response to climate change. Based on data from extant populations, we can predict that as the worm pipefish moves northward, a wave of decreasing selection intensity will likely replace the strong sexual selection at the northern range margin. In contrast, the southern populations will be followed by heightened sexual selection, which may exacerbate the problem of local extinction at this retreating boundary. 相似文献
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Natural selection and neutral evolutionary processes contribute to genetic divergence in leaf traits across a precipitation gradient in the tropical oak Quercus oleoides 下载免费PDF全文
José A. Ramírez‐Valiente Nicholas J. Deacon Julie Etterson Alyson Center Jed P. Sparks Kimberlee L. Sparks Timothy Longwell George Pilz Jeannine Cavender‐Bares 《Molecular ecology》2018,27(9):2176-2192
The impacts of drought are expanding worldwide as a consequence of climate change. However, there is still little knowledge of how species respond to long‐term selection in seasonally dry ecosystems. In this study, we used QST‐FST comparisons to investigate (i) the role of natural selection on population genetic differentiation for a set of functional traits related to drought resistance in the seasonally dry tropical oak Quercus oleoides and (ii) the influence of water availability at the site of population origin and in experimental treatments on patterns of trait divergence. We conducted a thorough phenotypic characterization of 1912 seedlings from ten populations growing in field and greenhouse common gardens under replicated watering treatments. We also genotyped 218 individuals from the same set of populations using eleven nuclear microsatellites. QST distributions for leaf lamina area, specific leaf area, leaf thickness and stomatal pore index were higher than FST distribution. Results were consistent across growth environments. Genetic differentiation among populations for these functional traits was associated with the index of moisture at the origin of the populations. Together, our results suggest that drought is an important selective agent for Q. oleoides and that differences in length and severity of the dry season have driven the evolution of genetic differences in functional traits. 相似文献
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Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide‐ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north 下载免费PDF全文
David Montwé Miriam Isaac‐Renton Andreas Hamann Heinrich Spiecker 《Global Change Biology》2016,22(2):806-815
Choosing drought‐tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long‐term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change. 相似文献
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Photosynthesis and growth reduction with warming are driven by nonstomatal limitations in a Mediterranean semi‐arid shrub 下载免费PDF全文
Lupe León‐Sánchez Emilio Nicolás Pedro A. Nortes Fernando T. Maestre José I. Querejeta 《Ecology and evolution》2016,6(9):2725-2738
Whereas warming enhances plant nutrient status and photosynthesis in most terrestrial ecosystems, dryland vegetation is vulnerable to the likely increases in evapotranspiration and reductions in soil moisture caused by elevated temperatures. Any warming‐induced declines in plant primary production and cover in drylands would increase erosion, land degradation, and desertification. We conducted a four‐year manipulative experiment in a semi‐arid Mediterranean ecosystem to evaluate the impacts of a ~2°C warming on the photosynthesis, transpiration, leaf nutrient status, chlorophyll content, isotopic composition, biomass growth, and postsummer survival of the native shrub Helianthemum squamatum. We predicted that warmed plants would show reduced photosynthetic activity and growth, primarily due to the greater stomatal limitation imposed by faster and more severe soil drying under warming. On average, warming reduced net photosynthetic rates by 36% across the study period. Despite this strong response, warming did not affect stomatal conductance and transpiration. The reduction of peak photosynthetic rates with warming was more pronounced in a drought year than in years with near‐average rainfall (75% and 25–40% reductions relative to controls, respectively), with no indications of photosynthetic acclimation to warming through time. Warmed plants had lower leaf N and P contents, δ13C, and sparser and smaller leaves than control plants. Warming reduced shoot dry mass production by 31%. However, warmed plants were able to cope with large reductions in net photosynthesis, leaf area, and shoot biomass production without changes in postsummer survival rates. Our findings highlight the key role of nonstomatal factors (biochemical and/or nutritional) in reducing net carbon assimilation rates and growth under warming, which has important implications for projections of plant carbon balance under the warmer and drier climatic scenario predicted for drylands worldwide. Projected climate warming over the coming decades could reduce net primary production by about one‐third in semi‐arid gypsum shrublands dominated by H. squamatum. 相似文献
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Emerging climate‐driven disturbance processes: widespread mortality associated with snow‐to‐rain transitions across 10° of latitude and half the range of a climate‐threatened conifer 下载免费PDF全文
Brian Buma Paul E. Hennon Constance A. Harrington Jamie R. Popkin John Krapek Melinda S. Lamb Lauren E. Oakes Sari Saunders Stefan Zeglen 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(7):2903-2914
Climate change is causing rapid changes to forest disturbance regimes worldwide. While the consequences of climate change for existing disturbance processes, like fires, are relatively well studied, emerging drivers of disturbance such as snow loss and subsequent mortality are much less documented. As the climate warms, a transition from winter snow to rain in high latitudes will cause significant changes in environmental conditions such as soil temperatures, historically buffered by snow cover. The Pacific coast of North America is an excellent test case, as mean winter temperatures are currently at the snow–rain threshold and have been warming for approximately 100 years post‐Little Ice Age. Increased mortality in a widespread tree species in the region has been linked to warmer winters and snow loss. Here, we present the first high‐resolution range map of this climate‐sensitive species, Callitropsis nootkatensis (yellow‐cedar), and document the magnitude and location of observed mortality across Canada and the United States. Snow cover loss related mortality spans approximately 10° latitude (half the native range of the species) and 7% of the overall species range and appears linked to this snow–rain transition across its range. Mortality is commonly >70% of basal area in affected areas, and more common where mean winter temperatures is at or above the snow–rain threshold (>0 °C mean winter temperature). Approximately 50% of areas with a currently suitable climate for the species (2 °C) are expected to warm beyond that threshold by the late 21st century. Regardless of climate change scenario, little of the range which is expected to remain suitable in the future (e.g., a climatic refugia) is in currently protected landscapes (<1–9%). These results are the first documentation of this type of emerging climate disturbance and highlight the difficulties of anticipating novel disturbance processes when planning for conservation and management. 相似文献