Low impact of climate change on subalpine grasslands in the Swiss Northern Alps

While phenological shifts and migration of isolated species under climate change have already been observed on alpine summits, very few studies have focused on community composition changes in subalpine grasslands. Here we use permanent plots monitored since 1954 and precisely located phytosociological censuses from 1970 to study compositional changes of subalpine grasslands in two distinct regions of the Swiss Northern Alps. In both areas, warming trends during the monitoring period were associated with changes in land management (abandonment of goat and sheep pasturing or grazing replaced by mowing). Old and recent inventories were compared with correspondence analyses (CA). Ecological indicator values, community‐affinities and biological traits of the species were used to infer the factors responsible for triggering the observed changes. In both regions, subalpine grasslands were stable with smaller changes than have previously been observed in alpine environments. Only a few species appeared or disappeared and changes were generally limited to increasing or decreasing frequency and cover of certain taxa. At one site, grazing abandonment favored fallow species. Some of these species were located at their upper altitudinal distribution limits and may have spread because of rising temperatures. In both areas, declining species were predominantly alpine and low‐growing species; their decline was probably due to increased competition (e.g., shadow) with more vigorous subalpine taxa no longer limited by grazing. We conclude that vegetation communities can respond rapidly to warming as long as colonization is facilitated by available space or structural change. In the subalpine grasslands studies, changes were mainly driven by land management. These communities have a dense vegetation cover and newly arriving herbaceous species preferring warmer conditions may take some time to establish themselves. However, climate disturbances, such as exceptional drought, may accelerate community changes by opening gaps for new species.     

Functional and phylogenetic dimensions are more important than the taxonomic dimension for capturing variation in stream fish communities

Biodiversity is inherently multidimensional in nature, differences in evolutionary history, attributes of species, taxonomic composition constitutes a small fraction of whole variation present in this multidimensional space. Despite its multidimensional characteristic, biodiversity has been traditionally measured by assessing its dimensions separately through metrics of diversity. However, assessing multiple dimensions in a common framework opens the possibility of answering interesting questions that, until now, are poorly understood, such as: What dimensions capture most of the variation present in biodiversity among communities? We assess this question by extending the framework of Importance Values (IVs) to three dimensions of variation in biodiversity, functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic, and evaluate which of these captures the most variation in biodiversity space. To address this question we used data from stream fish communities of the Ivinhema River Basin in Brazil. We found that functional and phylogenetic dimensions are more important than the taxonomic dimension (represented by richness) in capturing variation in the biodiversity space formed by these three dimensions together. Furthermore, the IVs of these three dimensions were similar along an altitudinal gradient, indicating similar contributions by a given dimension in different environmental conditions. We highlight the importance of adopting a multidimensional approach when describing biodiversity, since richness (the proxy for taxonomic dimension), despite being the most commonly used, is an incomplete surrogate to capture the variation present in the biodiversity space of stream fish communities.     

Trait variations of ground flora species disentangle the effects of global change and altered land‐use in Swedish forests during 20 years

Northern forest ecosystems are exposed to a range of anthropogenic processes including global warming, atmospheric deposition, and changing land‐use. The vegetation of northern forests is composed of species with several functional traits related to these processes, whose effects may be difficult to disentangle. Here, we combined analyses of spatio‐temporal dynamics and functional traits of ground flora species, including morphological characteristics, responses to macro‐ and microclimate, soil conditions, and disturbance. Based on data from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, we compared changes in occurrence of a large number of ground flora species during a 20‐year period (1994–2013) in boreal and temperate Sweden respectively. Our results show that a majority of the common ground flora species have changed their overall frequency. Comparisons of functional traits between increasing and declining species, and of trends in mean trait values of sample plots, indicate that current floristic changes are caused by combined effects of climate warming, nitrogen deposition and changing land‐use. Changes and their relations with plant traits were generally larger in temperate southern Sweden. Nutrient‐demanding species with mesotrophic morphology were favored by ongoing eutrophication due to nitrogen deposition in the temperate zone, while dwarf shrubs with low demands on nitrogen decreased in frequency. An increase of species with less northern and less eastern distribution limits was also restricted to temperate Sweden, and indicates effects of a moister and milder macroclimate. A trend toward dense plantation forests is mirrored by a decrease of light‐demanding species in both vegetation zones, and a decrease of grassland species in the temperate zone. Although denser tree canopies may buffer effects of a warmer climate and of nitrogen deposition to some extent, traits related to these processes were weakly correlated in the group of species with changing frequency. Hence, our results indicate specific effects of these often confounded anthropogenic processes.     

Phylogenetic assemblage structure of North American trees is more strongly shaped by glacial–interglacial climate variability in gymnosperms than in angiosperms

How fast does biodiversity respond to climate change? The relationship of past and current climate with phylogenetic assemblage structure helps us to understand this question. Studies of angiosperm tree diversity in North America have already suggested effects of current water–energy balance and tropical niche conservatism. However, the role of glacial–interglacial climate variability remains to be determined, and little is known about any of these relationships for gymnosperms. Moreover, phylogenetic endemism, the concentration of unique lineages in restricted ranges, may also be related to glacial–interglacial climate variability and needs more attention. We used a refined phylogeny of both angiosperms and gymnosperms to map phylogenetic diversity, clustering and endemism of North American trees in 100‐km grid cells, and climate change velocity since Last Glacial Maximum together with postglacial accessibility to recolonization to quantify glacial–interglacial climate variability. We found: (1) Current climate is the dominant factor explaining the overall patterns, with more clustered angiosperm assemblages toward lower temperature, consistent with tropical niche conservatism. (2) Long‐term climate stability is associated with higher angiosperm endemism, while higher postglacial accessibility is linked to to more phylogenetic clustering and endemism in gymnosperms. (3) Factors linked to glacial–interglacial climate change have stronger effects on gymnosperms than on angiosperms. These results suggest that paleoclimate legacies supplement current climate in shaping phylogenetic patterns in North American trees, and especially so for gymnosperms.     

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.