Immune protection induced on day 10 following administration of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine

Background

The 2009 swine-origin influenza virus (S-OIV) H1N1 pandemic has caused more than 18,000 deaths worldwide. Vaccines against the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza virus are useful for preventing infection and controlling the pandemic. The kinetics of the immune response following vaccination with the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza vaccine need further investigation.

Methodology/Principal Findings

58 volunteers were vaccinated with a 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza monovalent split-virus vaccine (15 µg, single-dose). The sera were collected before Day 0 (pre-vaccination) and on Days 3, 5, 10, 14, 21, 30, 45 and 60 post vaccination. Specific antibody responses induced by the vaccination were analyzed using hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). After administration of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza vaccine, specific and protective antibody response with a major subtype of IgG was sufficiently developed as early as Day 10 (seroprotection rate: 93%). This specific antibody response could maintain for at least 60 days without significant reduction. Antibody response induced by the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza vaccine could not render protection against seasonal H1N1 influenza (seroconversion rate: 3% on Day 21). However, volunteers with higher pre-existing seasonal influenza antibody levels (pre-vaccination HI titer ≥1∶40, Group 1) more easily developed a strong antibody protection effect against the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza vaccine as compared with those showing lower pre-existing seasonal influenza antibody levels (pre-vaccination HI titer <1∶40, Group 2). The titer of the specific antibody against the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza was much higher in Group 1 (geometric mean titer: 146 on Day 21) than that in Group 2 (geometric mean titer: 70 on Day 21).

Conclusions/Significance

Recipients could gain sufficient protection as early as 10 days after vaccine administration. The protection could last at least 60 days. Individuals with a stronger pre-existing seasonal influenza antibody response may have a relatively higher potential for developing a stronger humoral immune response after vaccination with the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine.     

Effect of processed aloe vera gel on immunogenicity in inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine and upper respiratory tract infection in healthy adults: A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial

BackgroundAloe vera is a functional food with various pharmacological functions, including an immune-modulating effect. Until now, A. vera has never been studied as an adjuvant in influenza vaccine, and its effects on upper respiratory tract infection (URI) are unknown.PurposeThe objective of our study was to investigate the effect of processed A. vera gel (PAG) on immunogenicity of quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine and URI in healthy adults.Study designA randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial was performed.MethodsThis study was conducted in 100 healthy adults at a single center from September 2017 to May 2018. Subjects were randomly divided into a PAG group (n = 50) and a placebo group (n = 50). The enrolled subjects were instructed to ingest the study drug for 8 weeks. The participants received a single dose of quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine after taking the study drug for the first 4 weeks of the study. The primary endpoint was seroprotection rate against at least one viral strain at 4 weeks post-vaccination. Other outcomes were seroprotection rate at 24 weeks post-vaccination, seroconversion rate, geometric mean fold increase (GMFI) at 4 and 24 weeks post-vaccination, seroprotection rate ratio and geometric mean titer ratio (GMTR) at 4 weeks post-vaccination between PAG and placebo groups, and incidence, severity, and duration of URI.ResultsThe European Committee for proprietary medicinal products (CPMP) evaluation criteria were met at least one in the PAG and placebo groups for all strains. However, there was no significant difference in the seroprotection rate at 4 weeks post-vaccination against all strains in both PAG and placebo groups. Among secondary endpoints, the GMFI at 4 weeks post-vaccination for the A/H3N2 was significantly higher in the PAG than in placebo group. The GMTR as adjuvant effect was 1.382 (95% CI, 1.014-1.1883). Kaplan–Meier curve analysis showed a reduction in incidence of URI (p = 0.035), and a generalized estimating equation model identified a decrease in repeated URI events (odds ratio 0.57; 95% CI, 0.39-0.83; p = 0.003) in the PAG group.ConclusionsOral intake of PAG did not show a significant increase in seroprotection rate from an immunogenicity perspective. However, it reduced the number of URI episodes. A well-designed further study is needed on the effect of PAG's antibody response against A/H3N2 in the future.     

Bayesian adaptive trial design for a newly validated surrogate endpoint

The evaluation of surrogate endpoints for primary use in future clinical trials is an increasingly important research area, due to demands for more efficient trials coupled with recent regulatory acceptance of some surrogates as 'valid.' However, little consideration has been given to how a trial that utilizes a newly validated surrogate endpoint as its primary endpoint might be appropriately designed. We propose a novel Bayesian adaptive trial design that allows the new surrogate endpoint to play a dominant role in assessing the effect of an intervention, while remaining realistically cautious about its use. By incorporating multitrial historical information on the validated relationship between the surrogate and clinical endpoints, then subsequently evaluating accumulating data against this relationship as the new trial progresses, we adaptively guard against an erroneous assessment of treatment based upon a truly invalid surrogate. When the joint outcomes in the new trial seem plausible given similar historical trials, we proceed with the surrogate endpoint as the primary endpoint, and do so adaptively-perhaps stopping the trial for early success or inferiority of the experimental treatment, or for futility. Otherwise, we discard the surrogate and switch adaptive determinations to the original primary endpoint. We use simulation to test the operating characteristics of this new design compared to a standard O'Brien-Fleming approach, as well as the ability of our design to discriminate trustworthy from untrustworthy surrogates in hypothetical future trials. Furthermore, we investigate possible benefits using patient-level data from 18 adjuvant therapy trials in colon cancer, where disease-free survival is considered a newly validated surrogate endpoint for overall survival.     

Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Level and Influenza Vaccine Immunogenicity in Children and Adolescents

Background

Vaccination is an important strategy in the prevention of influenza, but immunologic response to vaccination can vary widely. Recent studies have shown an association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) levels and immune function. The purpose of this study was to determine if serum 25(OH)D level correlates with influenza vaccine immunogenicity in children and adolescents.

Methods

We conducted a prospective cohort study of children age 3 to 15 years of age vaccinated with trivalent influenza vaccine (A/Brisbane/59/2007[H1N1]-like virus, A/Brisbane/10/2007 [H3N2]-like virus and B/Florida/4/2006-like virus) in Hutterite communities in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Serum 25(OH)D levels were measured at baseline and immunogenicity was assessed using hemagluttination inhibition (HAI) titers done at baseline and 3–5 weeks post vaccination. Logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between serum 25(OH)D level as both a continuous and dichotomous variable and seroprotection, seroconversion, fold increase in geometric mean titer (GMT) and post vaccination titer.

Results

A total of 391 children and adolescents were included in the study and 221 (57% had post-vaccination HAI titers. The median serum 25(OH)D level was 61.0 nmol/L (Interquartile range [IQR] 50.0, 71.0). No relationship was found between serum 25(OH)D level and seroprotection (post-vaccination titer ≥40 and ≥320) or seroconversion (post-vaccination titer ≥40 for participants with pre-vaccine titer <10 or four-fold rise in post-vaccination titer for those with a pre-vaccine titer ≥10).

Conclusion

Serum 25(OH)D level was not associated with influenza vaccine immunogenicity in otherwise healthy children and adolescents. Other strategies to enhance influenza vaccine response should continue to be evaluated in this population.The role of serum 25(OH)D level in vaccine responsiveness in other populations, especially those hyporesponsive to influenza vaccination, requires further study.     

Comparison of hemagglutination inhibition and hemagglutinin pseudovirus neutralization titres in relation to protection against influenza in a mouse model

The hemagglutination inhibition (HI) test has long been used as a standard measure of antibody response for inactivated influenza vaccines. However, the HI test has limitations, such as insensitivity when using some H3N2 virus strains and failure to detect neutralizing antibodies that target regions distant from the receptor binding site. We therefore examined a hemagglutinin pseudovirus neutralization (PVN) test as a possible supplement or alternative to the HI test. We evaluated the association of HI or PVN titres with protection against influenza infection in mice based on morbidity (where the illness was defined as 25% body weight loss). We assessed this relationship using dose–response models incorporating HI or PVN titres as a variable. The morbidity was correlated with the pre-exposure titres, and such a correlation was well described by a modified dose–response model. The mathematical modelling suggests that PVN titres consistently show a stronger association with in vivo protection as compared to HI titres in mice. Given our findings, the PVN test warrants further investigation as a tool for evaluating antibody responses to influenza vaccines containing hemagglutinin. The resulting models may also be useful for analyzing human clinical data to identify potentially protective antibody titres against influenza illness.     

The antigenic evolution of influenza: drift or thrift?

It is commonly assumed that antibody responses against the influenza virus are polarized in the following manner: strong antibody responses are directed at highly variable antigenic epitopes, which consequently undergo ‘antigenic drift’, while weak antibody responses develop against conserved epitopes. As the highly variable epitopes are in a constant state of flux, current antibody-based vaccine strategies are focused on the conserved epitopes in the expectation that they will provide some level of clinical protection after appropriate boosting. Here, we use a theoretical model to suggest the existence of epitopes of low variability, which elicit a high degree of both clinical and transmission-blocking immunity. We show that several epidemiological features of influenza and its serological and molecular profiles are consistent with this model of ‘antigenic thrift’, and that identifying the protective epitopes of low variability predicted by this model could offer a more viable alternative to regularly update the influenza vaccine than exploiting responses to weakly immunogenic conserved regions.     

A novel particulate influenza vaccine induces long-term and broad-based immunity in mice after oral immunization.

The immunogenicity of a novel particulate oral influenza vaccine was examined in terms of antibody response and protection in mice. Oral immunization with chicken erythrocytes (CRBC) adsorbed with gamma-irradiated influenza A virus induced high levels of immunoglobulin G antibodies and protection in the lung compared with gamma-irradiated virus administered alone or CRBC. Immunoglobulin A antibodies were the predominant antibodies in nasal washings, and their presence did not correlate with protection as well as immunoglobulin G antibodies. Immunity was not specific for the immunizing virus subtype, as antibodies and enhanced lung clearance of virus were demonstrated with different virus subtypes. However, mice were not protected when challenged with live influenza B virus. The antibody response and the degree of protection were dependent on both the concentration of virus adsorbed to CRBC and number of CRBC adsorbed to virus. Virus-adsorbed CRBC given subcutaneously failed to induce antibodies or protection. Oral immunization with A/Qld/6/72 (H3N2) virus gave a high level of protection over 12 weeks, which could be demonstrated with different subtypes. Protection correlated with antibody levels in the lung determined by both enzyme-linked immunosorbent and hemagglutination inhibition assays, although the levels detected by the latter declined over time.     

A Whole Virus Pandemic Influenza H1N1 Vaccine Is Highly Immunogenic and Protective in Active Immunization and Passive Protection Mouse Models

The recent emergence and rapid spread of a novel swine-derived H1N1 influenza virus has resulted in the first influenza pandemic of this century. Monovalent vaccines have undergone preclinical and clinical development prior to initiation of mass immunization campaigns. We have carried out a series of immunogenicity and protection studies following active immunization of mice, which indicate that a whole virus, nonadjuvanted vaccine is immunogenic at low doses and protects against live virus challenge. The immunogenicity in this model was comparable to that of a whole virus H5N1 vaccine, which had previously been demonstrated to induce high levels of seroprotection in clinical studies. The efficacy of the H1N1 pandemic vaccine in protecting against live virus challenge was also seen to be equivalent to that of the H5N1 vaccine. The protective efficacy of the H1N1 vaccine was also confirmed using a severe combined immunodeficient (SCID) mouse model. It was demonstrated that mouse and guinea pig immune sera elicited following active H1N1 vaccination resulted in 100% protection of SCID mice following passive transfer of immune sera and lethal challenge. The immune responses to a whole virus pandemic H1N1 and a split seasonal H1N1 vaccine were also compared in this study. It was demonstrated that the whole virus vaccine induced a balanced Th-1 and Th-2 response in mice, whereas the split vaccine induced mainly a Th-2 response and only minimal levels of Th-1 responses. These data supported the initiation of clinical studies with the same low doses of whole virus vaccine that had previously been demonstrated to be immunogenic in clinical studies with a whole virus H5N1 vaccine.     

Human immune responses elicited by an intranasal inactivated H5 influenza vaccine

Intranasally administered influenza vaccines could be more effective than injected vaccines, because intranasal vaccination can induce virus-specific immunoglobulin A (IgA) antibodies in the upper respiratory tract, which is the initial site of infection. In this study, immune responses elicited by an intranasal inactivated vaccine of influenza A(H5N1) virus were evaluated in healthy individuals naive for influenza A(H5N1) virus. Three doses of intranasal inactivated whole-virion H5 influenza vaccine induced strong neutralizing nasal IgA and serum IgG antibodies. In addition, a mucoadhesive excipient, carboxy vinyl polymer, had a notable impact on the induction of nasal IgA antibody responses but not on serum IgG antibody responses. The nasal hemagglutinin (HA)-specific IgA antibody responses clearly correlated with mucosal neutralizing antibody responses, indicating that measurement of nasal HA-specific IgA titers could be used as a surrogate for the mucosal antibody response. Furthermore, increased numbers of plasma cells and vaccine antigen-specific Th cells in the peripheral blood were observed after vaccination, suggesting that peripheral blood biomarkers may also be used to evaluate the intranasal vaccine-induced immune response. However, peripheral blood immune cell responses correlated with neutralizing antibody titers in serum samples but not in nasal wash samples. Thus, analysis of the peripheral blood immune response could be a surrogate for the systemic immune response to intranasal vaccination but not for the mucosal immune response. The current study suggests the clinical potential of intranasal inactivated vaccines against influenza A(H5N1) viruses and highlights the need to develop novel means to evaluate intranasal vaccine-induced mucosal immune responses.     

Participation of secretory antibodies in the protection from influenza

Two collective bodies (319 persons in all) were under observation from October, 1974 to March, 1975 for the purpose of studying the problem on the participation of antibodies of the respiratory tract secretion in the protection from influenza virus, type A, infection. During the influenza epidemic outbreak there was revealed a reverse relationship between the antibody concentration in the nasal cavity secretion and the incidence of the disease, and also an interaction between the antibodies of the secretions and the serum in the influenza protection.     

Protection and recovery in influenza virus-infected mice immunosuppressed with anti-IgM

BALB/c mice, immunosuppressed from birth with goat anti-mouse IgM, were able to recover from influenza virus infection in the absence of detectable serum and nasal antibody. Recovery was delayed a few days when compared with control animals. Antibody-deficient mice, that had recovered from an initial influenza virus infection, i.e., convalescent mice, were subsequently rechallenged with homologous influenza virus in order to study the importance of nasal and serum antibody in prevention of infection. Convalescent mice were susceptible to reinfection when nasal and serum antibody were not detectable. The mice were resistant to reinfection when serum and/or nasal antibody was detectable by radioimmunoassay. Normal mice that were passively immunized with high titer mouse anti-influenza virus serum were susceptible to challenge with homologous influenza virus. The serum antibody levels in these mice were higher than most of those found in the immune convalescent mice suppressed with anti-IgM, thereby suggesting that the serum antibody, found in convalescent suppressed mice, is not protective. We conclude that 1) mice can recover from influenza virus infection in the absence of detectable levels of nasal and serum antibody, thus indirectly confirming the role of cell-mediated immunity in recovery; 2) serum IgM, IgG2A, IgG2B, IgG3, and probably IgG1 antibody levels are not responsible for protection against influenza virus infection of the upper respiratory tract; and 3) nasal IgA antibody correlates best with protection against reinfection of the upper respiratory tract, but some other locally protective agent cannot be excluded.     

Meta-analysis for surrogacy: accelerated failure time models and semicompeting risks modeling

There has been great recent interest in the medical and statistical literature in the assessment and validation of surrogate endpoints as proxies for clinical endpoints in medical studies. More recently, authors have focused on using metaanalytical methods for quantification of surrogacy. In this article, we extend existing procedures for analysis based on the accelerated failure time model to this setting. An advantage of this approach relative to proportional hazards model is that it allows for analysis in the semicompeting risks setting, where we model the region where the surrogate endpoint occurs before the true endpoint. Several estimation methods and attendant inferential procedures are presented. In addition, between- and within-trial methods for evaluating surrogacy are developed; a novel principal components procedure is developed for quantifying trial-level surrogacy. The methods are illustrated by application to data from several studies in colorectal cancer.     

Evaluating candidate principal surrogate endpoints

SUMMARY: Frangakis and Rubin (2002, Biometrics 58, 21-29) proposed a new definition of a surrogate endpoint (a "principal" surrogate) based on causal effects. We introduce an estimand for evaluating a principal surrogate, the causal effect predictiveness (CEP) surface, which quantifies how well causal treatment effects on the biomarker predict causal treatment effects on the clinical endpoint. Although the CEP surface is not identifiable due to missing potential outcomes, it can be identified by incorporating a baseline covariate(s) that predicts the biomarker. Given case-cohort sampling of such a baseline predictor and the biomarker in a large blinded randomized clinical trial, we develop an estimated likelihood method for estimating the CEP surface. This estimation assesses the "surrogate value" of the biomarker for reliably predicting clinical treatment effects for the same or similar setting as the trial. A CEP surface plot provides a way to compare the surrogate value of multiple biomarkers. The approach is illustrated by the problem of assessing an immune response to a vaccine as a surrogate endpoint for infection.     

Properties of a nonparametric test for early comparison of treatments in clinical trials in the presence of surrogate endpoints

A nonparametric test is derived for comparing treatments with respect to the final endpoint in clinical trials in which the final endpoint has been observed for a random subset of patients, but results are available for a surrogate endpoint for a larger sample of patients. The test is an adaptation of the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney two-sample test, with an adjustment that involves a comparison of the ranks of the surrogate endpoints between patients with and without final endpoints. The validity of the test depends on the assumption that the patients with final endpoints represent a random sample of the patients registered in the study. This assumption is viable in trials in which the final endpoint is evaluated at a "landmark" timepoint in the patients' natural history. A small sample simulation study demonstrates that the test has a size that is close to the nominal value for all configurations evaluated. When compared with the conventional test based only on the final endpoints, the new test delivers substantial increases in power only when the surrogate endpoint is highly correlated with the true endpoint. Our research indicates that, in the absence of modeling assumptions, auxiliary information derived from surrogate endpoints can provide significant additional information only under special circumstances.     

Predicting treatment effect from surrogate endpoints and historical trials: an extrapolation involving probabilities of a binary outcome or survival to a specific time

Using multiple historical trials with surrogate and true endpoints, we consider various models to predict the effect of treatment on a true endpoint in a target trial in which only a surrogate endpoint is observed. This predicted result is computed using (1) a prediction model (mixture, linear, or principal stratification) estimated from historical trials and the surrogate endpoint of the target trial and (2) a random extrapolation error estimated from successively leaving out each trial among the historical trials. The method applies to either binary outcomes or survival to a particular time that is computed from censored survival data. We compute a 95% confidence interval for the predicted result and validate its coverage using simulation. To summarize the additional uncertainty from using a predicted instead of true result for the estimated treatment effect, we compute its multiplier of standard error. Software is available for download.     

The effects of influenza vaccination of health care workers in nursing homes: insights from a mathematical model

Background

Annual influenza vaccination of institutional health care workers (HCWs) is advised in most Western countries, but adherence to this recommendation is generally low. Although protective effects of this intervention for nursing home patients have been demonstrated in some clinical trials, the exact relationship between increased vaccine uptake among HCWs and protection of patients remains unknown owing to variations between study designs, settings, intensity of influenza seasons, and failure to control all effect modifiers. Therefore, we use a mathematical model to estimate the effects of HCW vaccination in different scenarios and to identify a herd immunity threshold in a nursing home department.

Methods and Findings

We use a stochastic individual-based model with discrete time intervals to simulate influenza virus transmission in a 30-bed long-term care nursing home department. We simulate different levels of HCW vaccine uptake and study the effect on influenza virus attack rates among patients for different institutional and seasonal scenarios. Our model reveals a robust linear relationship between the number of HCWs vaccinated and the expected number of influenza virus infections among patients. In a realistic scenario, approximately 60% of influenza virus infections among patients can be prevented when the HCW vaccination rate increases from 0 to 1. A threshold for herd immunity is not detected. Due to stochastic variations, the differences in patient attack rates between departments are high and large outbreaks can occur for every level of HCW vaccine uptake.

Conclusions

The absence of herd immunity in nursing homes implies that vaccination of every additional HCW protects an additional fraction of patients. Because of large stochastic variations, results of small-sized clinical trials on the effects of HCW vaccination should be interpreted with great care. Moreover, the large variations in attack rates should be taken into account when designing future studies.     

Correlation between Human Leukocyte Antigen Class II Alleles and HAI Titers Detected Post-Influenza Vaccination

Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Despite vaccination, many elderly recipients do not develop a protective antibody response. To determine whether Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) alleles modulate seroprotection to influenza, a cohort of HLA class II-typed high-risk vaccine recipients was investigated. Haemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) titres were measured 14–40 days post-subunit vaccination. Seroprotection was defined as HAI titres reaching 40 or greater for all three vaccine strains. HLA-DRB1*04∶01 and HLA-DPB1*04∶01 alleles were detected at higher frequencies in seroprotected compared with non-seroprotected individuals. Thus, the presence of certain HLA class II alleles may determine the magnitude of antibody responses to influenza vaccination.     

The evaluation of multiple surrogate endpoints

Surrogate endpoints are desirable because they typically result in smaller, faster efficacy studies compared with the ones using the clinical endpoints. Research on surrogate endpoints has received substantial attention lately, but most investigations have focused on the validity of using a single biomarker as a surrogate. Our paper studies whether the use of multiple markers can improve inferences about a treatment's effects on a clinical endpoint. We propose a joint model for a time to clinical event and for repeated measures over time on multiple biomarkers that are potential surrogates. This model extends the formulation of Xu and Zeger (2001, in press) and Fawcett and Thomas (1996, Statistics in Medicine 15, 1663-1685). We propose two complementary measures of the relative benefit of multiple surrogates as opposed to a single one. Markov chain Monte Carlo is implemented to estimate model parameters. The methodology is illustrated with an analysis of data from a schizophrenia clinical trial.     

Surrogate marker evaluation from an information theory perspective

The last 20 years have seen lots of work in the area of surrogate marker validation, partly devoted to frame the evaluation in a multitrial framework, leading to definitions in terms of the quality of trial- and individual-level association between a potential surrogate and a true endpoint (Buyse et al., 2000, Biostatistics 1, 49-67). A drawback is that different settings have led to different measures at the individual level. Here, we use information theory to create a unified framework, leading to a definition of surrogacy with an intuitive interpretation, offering interpretational advantages, and applicable in a wide range of situations. Our method provides a better insight into the chances of finding a good surrogate endpoint in a given situation. We further show that some of the previous proposals follow as special cases of our method. We illustrate our methodology using data from a clinical study in psychiatry.     

Carotid intimal-media thickness as a surrogate for cardiovascular disease events in trials of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors

BACKGROUND: Surrogate measures for cardiovascular disease events have the potential to increase greatly the efficiency of clinical trials. A leading candidate for such a surrogate is the progression of intima-media thickness (IMT) of the carotid artery; much experience has been gained with this endpoint in trials of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins). METHODS AND RESULTS: We examine two separate systems of criteria that have been proposed to define surrogate endpoints, based on clinical and statistical arguments. We use published results and a formal meta-analysis to evaluate whether progression of carotid IMT meets these criteria for HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins).IMT meets clinical-based criteria to serve as a surrogate endpoint for cardiovascular events in statin trials, based on relative efficiency, linkage to endpoints, and congruency of effects. Results from a meta-analysis and post-trial follow-up from a single published study suggest that IMT meets established statistical criteria by accounting for intervention effects in regression models. CONCLUSION: Carotid IMT progression meets accepted definitions of a surrogate for cardiovascular disease endpoints in statin trials. This does not, however, establish that it may serve universally as a surrogate marker in trials of other agents.