一类含间隙分布时滞的种群增长模型的稳定性

本文首先利用间隙分布时滞函数来建立更为符合实际的种群增长模型,然后运用两种不同的方法,对其平衡位置的局部稳定性进行了全面的讨论,得出了局部渐近稳定的充分必要条件,在参数平面上划分出了稳定和不稳地的区域。     

Predator-prey models with delay and prey harvesting

It is known that predator-prey systems with constant rate harvesting exhibit very rich dynamics. On the other hand, incorporating time delays into predator-prey models could induce instability and bifurcation. In this paper we are interested in studying the combined effects of the harvesting rate and the time delay on the dynamics of the generalized Gause-type predator-prey models and the Wangersky-Cunningham model. It is shown that in these models the time delay can cause a stable equilibrium to become unstable and even a switching of stabilities, while the harvesting rate has a stabilizing effect on the equilibrium if it is under the critical harvesting level. In particular, one of these models loses stability when the delay varies and then regains its stability when the harvesting rate is increased. Computer simulations are carried to explain the mathematical conclusions. Received: 1 March 2000 / Revised version: 7 September 2000 /?Published online: 21 August 2001     

一类具分段常数变量的捕食-食饵系统的Neimark-Sacker分支

讨论了具时滞与分段常数变量的捕食-食饵生态模型的稳定性及Neimark-Sacker分支;通过计算得到连续模型对应的差分模型,基于特征值理论和Schur-Cohn判据得到正平衡态局部渐进稳定的充分条件;以食饵的内禀增长率为分支参数,运用分支理论和中心流形定理分析了Neimark-Sacker分支的存在性与稳定性条件;通过举例和数值模拟验证了理论的正确性。     

The effect of delayed death in HIV/AIDS models

HIV-infected patients who receive treatment survive for some years after they have acquired the disease. The received treatment causes sustained reduction of viral reproduction by improving the immune function, leading to prolonged progression period to AIDS development. This prolonged progression period has created variability in survival times that affects estimates produced using mathematical models that do not include delay in disease related mortality. This paper investigates the effect of including delay in AIDS death occurrence in HIV/AIDS transmission models. A simple mathematical model with two stages of HIV progression is developed and extended to include time delay in the occurrence of AIDS deaths. Numerical simulations indicate that time delay changes the mortality curves considerably but has less effect on the proportion of infectives. The study highlights the importance of incorporating delay in models of HIV/AIDS for the production of accurate HIV/AIDS estimates.     

Analyse formelle de circuits de régulation génétique: le contrôle de l'immunité chez les bactériophages lambdoïdes

This paper is an attempt to describe and analyze in formal terms a genetic circuit which is rather complex and reasonably well disentangled: the control of immunity in lambdoid bacteriophages. Known models are expressed as logic equations, which relate the stade of activity of genes to variables of three kinds: genetic variables which describe the genotype of the organism, environmental variables like temperature and memorization variables. The value of each memorization variable (presence or absence of a gene product) is related to the value of the corresponding function (operation or not of the gene) by two characteristic time delays, an «establishment delay and a «decay delay.From the equations, one can derive matrices which facilitate comparison between models by showing which stable states are predicted by each model. Implications of current models, which had apparently remained cryptic, have been realized and experimentally tested.From the matrices, one can derive graphs which show the pathways (sequences of states) consistent with each model. These graphs are frequently branched and in these cases one has to analyze which conditions determine that one pathway rather than another one, is followed.     

Neuronal model with distributed delay: analysis and simulation study for gamma distribution memory kernel

A single neuronal model incorporating distributed delay (memory)is proposed. The stochastic model has been formulated as a Stochastic Integro-Differential Equation (SIDE) which results in the underlying process being non-Markovian. A detailed analysis of the model when the distributed delay kernel has exponential form (weak delay) has been carried out. The selection of exponential kernel has enabled the transformation of the non-Markovian model to a Markovian model in an extended state space. For the study of First Passage Time (FPT) with exponential delay kernel, the model has been transformed to a system of coupled Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) in two-dimensional state space. Simulation studies of the SDEs provide insight into the effect of weak delay kernel on the Inter-Spike Interval(ISI) distribution. A measure based on Jensen-Shannon divergence is proposed which can be used to make a choice between two competing models viz. distributed delay model vis-á-vis LIF model. An interesting feature of the model is that the behavior of (CV(t))((ISI)) (Coefficient of Variation) of the ISI distribution with respect to memory kernel time constant parameter η reveals that neuron can switch from a bursting state to non-bursting state as the noise intensity parameter changes. The membrane potential exhibits decaying auto-correlation structure with or without damped oscillatory behavior depending on the choice of parameters. This behavior is in agreement with empirically observed pattern of spike count in a fixed time window. The power spectral density derived from the auto-correlation function is found to exhibit single and double peaks. The model is also examined for the case of strong delay with memory kernel having the form of Gamma distribution. In contrast to fast decay of damped oscillations of the ISI distribution for the model with weak delay kernel, the decay of damped oscillations is found to be slower for the model with strong delay kernel.     

Feedback identification of continuous microbial growth systems

The fundamental problem of dynamic modeling of continuous culture systems for process control and optimization is addressed. Forcing a system to bifurcation via feedback control is a very promising method for model discrimination and identification. Dynamic information is obtained by using this technique, the dynamic behavior of the chemostat as predicted by unstructured models, the model with delay, and a structured model has been analyzed. The method exposes significant differences in the nonlinear dynamic structure of the various models and can be implemented to discriminate between various possible models for a continuous culture system.     

Transient oscillations induced by delayed growth response in the chemostat

In this paper, in order to try to account for the transient oscillations observed in chemostat experiments, we consider a model of single species growth in a chemostat that involves delayed growth response. The time delay models the lag involved in the nutrient conversion process. Both monotone response functions and nonmonotone response functions are considered. The nonmonotone response function models the inhibitory effects of growth response of certain nutrients when concentrations are too high. By applying local and global Hopf bifurcation theorems, we prove that the model has unstable periodic solutions that bifurcate from unstable nonnegative equilibria as the parameter measuring the delay passes through certain critical values and that these local periodic solutions can persist, even if the delay parameter moves far from the critical (local) bifurcation values.When there are two positive equilibria, then positive periodic solutions can exist. When there is a unique positive equilibrium, the model does not have positive periodic oscillations and the unique positive equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. However, the model can have periodic solutions that change sign. Although these solutions are not biologically meaningful, provided the initial data starts close enough to the unstable manifold of one of these periodic solutions they may still help to account for the transient oscillations that have been frequently observed in chemostat experiments. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate that the model has varying degrees of transient oscillatory behaviour that can be controlled by the choice of the initial data.Mathematics Subject Classification: 34D20, 34K20, 92D25Research was partially supported by NSERC of Canada.This work was partly done while this author was a postdoc at McMaster.     

Does it pay to delay? Flesh flies show adaptive plasticity in reproductive timing

Life-history plasticity is widespread among organisms. However, an important question is whether it is adaptive. Most models for plasticity in life-history timing predict that animals, once they have reached the minimal nutritional threshold under poor conditions, will accelerate development or time to reproduction. Adaptive delays in reproduction are not common, especially in short-lived species. Examples of adaptive reproductive delays exist in mammalian populations experiencing strong interspecific (e.g., predation) and intraspecific (e.g., infanticide) competition. But are there other environmental factors that may trigger an adaptive delay in reproductive timing? We show that the short-lived flesh fly Sarcophaga crassipalpis will delay reproduction under nutrient-poor conditions, even though it has already met the minimal nutritional threshold for reproduction. We test whether this delay strategy is an adaptive response allowing the scavenger time to locate more resources by experimentally providing supplemental protein pulses (early, mid and late) throughout the reproductive delay period. Flies receiving additional protein produced more and larger eggs, demonstrating a benefit of the delay. In addition, by tracking the allocation of carbon from the pulses using stable isotopes, we show that flies receiving earlier pulses incorporated more carbon into eggs and somatic tissue than those given a later pulse. These results indicate that the reproductive delay in S. crassipalpis is consistent with adaptive post-threshold plasticity, a nutritionally linked reproductive strategy that has not been reported previously in an invertebrate species.     

Modeling the glucose-insulin regulatory system and ultradian insulin secretory oscillations with two explicit time delays

In the glucose-insulin regulatory system, ultradian insulin secretory oscillations are observed to have a period of 50-150 min. After pioneering work traced back to the 1960s, several mathematical models have been proposed during the last decade to model these ultradian oscillations as well as the metabolic system producing them. These currently existing models still lack some of the key physiological aspects of the glucose-insulin system. Applying the mass conservation law, we introduce two explicit time delays and propose a more robust alternative model for better understanding the glucose-insulin endocrine metabolic regulatory system and the ultradian insulin secretory oscillations for the cases of continuous enteral nutrition and constant glucose infusion. We compare the simulation profiles obtained from this two time delay model with those from the other existing models. As a result, we notice many unique features of this two delay model. Based on our intensive simulations, we suspect that one of the possibly many causes of ultradian insulin secretion oscillations is the time delay of the insulin secretion stimulated by the elevated glucose concentration.     

Stochastic Simulation of Delay-Induced Circadian Rhythms in Drosophila

Circadian rhythms are ubiquitous in all eukaryotes and some prokaryotes. Several computational models with or without time delays have been developed for circadian rhythms. Exact stochastic simulations have been carried out for several models without time delays, but no exact stochastic simulation has been done for models with delays. In this paper, we proposed a detailed and a reduced stochastic model with delays for circadian rhythms in Drosophila based on two deterministic models of Smolen et al. and employed exact stochastic simulation to simulate circadian oscillations. Our simulations showed that both models can produce sustained oscillations and that the oscillation is robust to noise in the sense that there is very little variability in oscillation period although there are significant random fluctuations in oscillation peeks. Moreover, although average time delays are essential to simulation of oscillation, random changes in time delays within certain range around fixed average time delay cause little variability in the oscillation period. Our simulation results also showed that both models are robust to parameter variations and that oscillation can be entrained by light/dark circles. Our simulations further demonstrated that within a reasonable range around the experimental result, the rates that dclock and per promoters switch back and forth between activated and repressed sites have little impact on oscillation period.     

A model of HIV-1 pathogenesis that includes an intracellular delay

Mathematical modeling combined with experimental measurements have yielded important insights into HIV-1 pathogenesis. For example, data from experiments in which HIV-infected patients are given potent antiretroviral drugs that perturb the infection process have been used to estimate kinetic parameters underlying HIV infection. Many of the models used to analyze data have assumed drug treatments to be completely efficacious and that upon infection a cell instantly begins producing virus. We consider a model that allows for less then perfect drug effects and which includes a delay in the initiation of virus production. We present detailed analysis of this delay differential equation model and compare the results to a model without delay. Our analysis shows that when drug efficacy is less than 100%, as may be the case in vivo, the predicted rate of decline in plasma virus concentration depends on three factors: the death rate of virus producing cells, the efficacy of therapy, and the length of the delay. Thus, previous estimates of infected cell loss rates can be improved upon by considering more realistic models of viral infection.     

A coupled plankton system with instantaneous and delayed predation

We present two simple plankton population models: one has instantaneous predation, another has delayed predation. The models consist of two coupled differential equations representing the interaction between phytoplankton and herbivorous zooplankton with additional effect of zooplankton predation by a constant fish population. We study the dynamical behaviour and investigate the conditions to guarantee the coexistence of two species, and address the stability and bifurcation under different density of fish, with or without the maturation time delay. Analytical methods and numerical simulations are used to obtain information about the qualitative behaviour of the models.     

A coupled plankton system with instantaneous and delayed predation

We present two simple plankton population models: one has instantaneous predation, another has delayed predation. The models consist of two coupled differential equations representing the interaction between phytoplankton and herbivorous zooplankton with additional effect of zooplankton predation by a constant fish population. We study the dynamical behaviour and investigate the conditions to guarantee the coexistence of two species, and address the stability and bifurcation under different density of fish, with or without the maturation time delay. Analytical methods and numerical simulations are used to obtain information about the qualitative behaviour of the models.     

22nd European Workshop for Rheumatology Research,Leiden, The Netherlands, 28 February-3 March 2002

The European Workshop for Rheumatology Research met this year in Leiden, The Netherlands. The Workshop provided a platform to feast on new technologies and how they have taken research programmes forward. While there will be the inevitable delay during which mechanisms are devised for analysing the huge amount of information generated by these technologies, there is a lot already to look forward to. Highlights included genomic, reverse genomic and proteomic approaches to understanding disease pathogenesis and to identifying new therapeutic targets. Opportunities for exploring whether pharmacogenomics has a place in the clinic are now a reality, and phage display technology has been applied to in vivo arthritis models to identify human synovial microvascular 'post codes'.     

22nd European Workshop for Rheumatology Research, Leiden, The Netherlands, 28 February–3 March 2002

The European Workshop for Rheumatology Research met this year in Leiden, The Netherlands. The Workshop provided a platform to feast on new technologies and how they have taken research programmes forward. While there will be the inevitable delay during which mechanisms are devised for analysing the huge amount of information generated by these technologies, there is a lot already to look forward to. Highlights included genomic, reverse genomic and proteomic approaches to understanding disease pathogenesis and to identifying new therapeutic targets. Opportunities for exploring whether pharmacogenomics has a place in the clinic are now a reality, and phage display technology has been applied to in vivo arthritis models to identify human synovial microvascular 'post codes'.     

Linear stability criteria for population models with periodically perturbed delays

We examine some simple population models that incorporate a time delay which is not a constant but is instead a known periodic function of time. We examine what effect this periodic variation has on the linear stability of the equilibrium states of scalar population models and of a simple predator prey system. The case when the delay differs from a constant by a small amplitude periodic perturbation can be treated analytically by using two-timing methods. Of particular interest is the case when the system is initially marginally stable. The introduction of variation in the delay can then have either a stabilising effect or a destabilizing one, depending on the frequency of the periodic perturbation. The case when the periodic perturbation has large amplitude is studied numerically. If the fluctuation is large enough the effect can be stabilising.     

Green tea polyphenols for prostate cancer chemoprevention: A translational perspective

Every year nearly 200,000 men in the United States are diagnosed with prostate cancer (PCa), and another 29,000 men succumb to the disease. Within certain regions of the world population based studies have identified a possible role for green tea in the prevention of certain cancers, especially PCa. One constituent in particular, epigallocatechin-3-gallate also known as EGCG has been shown in cell culture models to decrease cell viability and promote apoptosis in multiple cancer cell lines including PCa with no effect on non-cancerous cell lines. In addition, animal models have consistently shown that standardized green tea polyphenols when administered in drinking water delay the development and progression of PCa. Altogether, three clinical trials have been performed in PCa patients and suggest that green tea may have a distinct role as a chemopreventive agent. This review will present the available data for standardized green tea polyphenols in regard to PCa chemoprevention that will include epidemiological, mechanism based studies, safety, pharmacokinetics, and applicable clinical trials. The data that has been collected so far suggests that green tea may be a promising agent for PCa chemoprevention and further clinical trials of participants at risk of PCa or early stage PCa are warranted.