东北虎豹国家公园生态环境质量动态评价及其气候响应

人类活动及气候变化对东北虎豹国家公园生态环境产生深刻的影响,探究该地区生态环境质量的时空演变规律对园区可持续发展具有重要意义。在原有遥感生态指数基础上,选用增强型植被指数代替原绿度指标中的归一化植被指数,构建2001—2020年植被生长季遥感生态指数,探讨园区内核心保护区、虎豹潜在栖息地及主要人口聚集区三大管控区生态环境质量时空变化特征,并基于像元尺度分析其对气候因素的响应。结果表明：(1)近20年虎豹公园生态环境质量呈波动微弱下降趋势,2015年后生态环境质量逐步提升,2020年达到良好水平;(2)园区内各管控区生态环境质量具有明显的空间分异性,东部核心保护区中部及虎豹潜在栖息地中部以南地区生态环境质量较好,主要人口聚集区相对较差。(3)近20年虎豹公园生态环境质量稳定性较差。未来生态环境质量变化趋势为上升的面积占60.86%,表明未来生态环境趋势总体向好,但局部地区仍存在持续恶化态势。(4)虎豹公园生态环境质量主要受降水的影响,与降水呈显著正相关关系,与气温及日照的相关性较弱。     

祁连山国家公园青海片区山水林田湖草的时空分异

祁连山国家公园被确定为我国国家公园体制试点之后,对其生态环境保护、管制、修复提出了更高、更精准的要求。基于1980—2018年遥感影像数据,构建山水林田湖草空间信息格局图谱,分析祁连山国家公园青海片区一般控制区和核心保护区山水林田湖草的时空分异特征。结果表明: 研究期间,草地是公园主体景观,面积为8174.93 km²,其中,核心保护区草地面积是一般控制区的1.2倍;裸岩石质地是未利用土地的主要类型,分别占核心保护区和一般控制区未利用土地面积的86.7%和79.4%;一般控制区的林地面积大于核心保护区;核心保护区的水域面积是一般控制区的4.9倍,核心保护区90.4%的水域面积为永久性冰川雪地;旱地主要集中在一般控制区。1980—2018年间,水域面积呈降低趋势,减少186.75 km²,其中,永久性冰川雪地下降最明显,一般控制区和核心保护区分别下降12.05和175.88 km²;林地、草地整体呈增加趋势,核心保护区高、中、低覆盖度草地的变化趋势均大于一般控制区,1990—2000年变化最明显,1980—2018年一般控制区高、中覆盖度草地和核心保护区高、低覆盖度草地存在退化现象;裸岩石质地呈上升趋势,而永久性冰川雪地呈下降趋势。永久性冰川雪地和裸岩石质地是公园内变化最明显的地类,核心保护区冰川退缩速度比一般控制区退缩速度明显,其转为裸岩石质地主要发生在1980—1990和2000—2010年。     

祁连山国家公园青海片区雪豹栖息地适宜性评价

雪豹是全球生物多样性保护的旗舰物种,精准评估雪豹栖息地质量可为其种群保护提供科学参考。本文选取地形、气候、植被类型和人为干扰等环境因子,采用景观连接度和MaxEnt模型两种方法,对祁连山国家公园青海片区雪豹栖息地质量进行评价。结果表明：高适宜栖息地主要分布在研究区的西部和中部,适宜面积占青海片区总面积的71.8%～77.5%,两种方法预测的适宜栖息地重叠区为8 979.1 km2,占青海片区总面积的56.7%;39.8%～43.3%的适宜栖息地分布在一般控制区,56.7%～60.2%的适宜栖息地分布在核心保护区;疏勒河源区适宜栖息地面积最多,石羊河源区适宜栖息地面积最少,黑河源区适宜栖息地面积占比最高,约为77.1%～91.8%。适宜栖息地面积整体呈现自东向西递增的趋势。一般控制区分布有较大面积的雪豹栖息地,人类活动将是一般控制区雪豹栖息地的潜在威胁。本研究对优化雪豹就地保护措施提供科学借鉴与参考。     

秦岭中段南坡景观格局与大熊猫栖息地的关系

景观格局是各种生态过程在不同尺度上作用的结果 ,同时景观格局强烈影响着生境内种群的生物学过程 ;种群的结构和分布状况同栖息地景观格局之间存在一定的联系。借助遥感和地理信息系统软件 ,对秦岭中段南坡地区 3个保护区 (佛坪、长青和观音山 )大熊猫栖息地的景观格局及其与大熊猫活动痕迹密度之间的关系进行了研究。该研究首先绘制了景观类型格局图并进行总体斑块格局分析 ,其次分别从保护区尺度和 1km2 尺度分析平均斑块分维数、破碎度指数和香农多样性指数 ,以进行比较 ;最后在 1km2尺度上统计分析大熊猫活动密度同景观格局指数分布的相关性。研究结果表明 :(1)各自然保护区内的景观格局存在着差异性 ,佛坪保护区景观多样性水平较高 ,长青保护区居中 ,观音山保护区最低 ;(2 )各保护区内部受人为干扰和生境恢复程度不同 ,使得景观破碎化程度在佛坪保护区最低 ,长青保护区居中 ,观音山保护区最高 ;(3)大熊猫活动密度有集中分布的趋势 ,高密度区域主要分布在佛坪中部和长青北部 ;(4 )在 1km2尺度 ,3个保护区大熊猫活动痕迹密度同景观指数格局之间存在不同的相关性 ,说明不同的景观格局会影响到大熊猫的活动和生境利用。     

基于最小费用距离模型的东北虎核心栖息地确定与空缺分析

东北虎(Panthera tigris altaica)是世界珍稀濒危物种之一。近年来,栖息地破碎化、猎物密度降低和人类的猎杀使得野生东北虎的数量急剧下降。在中国,野生东北虎仅分布于黑龙江省和吉林省东部山区,数量不到20只。本文以最小费用距离模型作为系统框架,综合植被类型、地形、人类影响等因素,确定了黑龙江东部山区的东北虎核心栖息地分布,并通过与现有保护区分布的比较,提出目前东北虎的保护空缺。结果表明,东北虎潜在核心栖息地总面积9576.37km2,占研究区域总面积的12.36%,主要分布在老爷岭东部和北部、完达山东北部、张广才岭以南、太平岭北部几个区域,然而,潜在核心栖息地完全没有被保护,就东北虎的长期生存与进化而言,在研究区域内建立合理有效的保护区网络具有重大意义。     

基于东北虎潜在栖息地保护的自然保护地整合

东北虎(Panthera tigris altaica)是我国国家一级重点保护野生动物,现主要分布在张广才岭、老爷岭和完达山等地的几个自然保护区内。在这些自然保护区周边还分布有大量的森林公园、风景名胜区、湿地公园等不同类型的自然保护地,这些自然保护地在一定程度上也可为东北虎提供栖息场所,但管理目标、管理体制等原因造成了人为的范围隔离、空间重叠等各种乱象。为响应我国建立以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系,为东北虎豹国家公园建设提供支撑,本文基于44个东北虎分布点信息和11个相关环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型对东北虎的潜在栖息地进行了预测。基于东北虎栖息地范围内的国家级自然保护区、国家森林公园,国家湿地公园等自然保护地与东北虎栖息地的适宜性等级分布格局,利用成本距离法对东北虎栖息地范围内的自然保护地进行了整合研究。结果发现:(1)东北虎在我国的潜在适宜分布区主要集中在穆棱市、珲春市、敦化市、宁安市、延吉市、海林市、东宁县、汪清县、饶河县、宝清县,共约10000 km2,占黑龙江、吉林二省总面积的1.5%;(2)东北虎潜在扩散区共约51000 km2,占黑龙江、吉林二省总面积的8%;(3)以成...     

黄土丘陵沟壑区道路建设和居民地扩张对生境破碎的影响

探究黄土丘陵沟壑区自然与人为因素导致的陆表景观破碎与植被损失,可为贫困山区经济发展与环境保护提供科学依据。基于2018年Google Earth和Landsat OLI光学遥感影像,采用缓冲区分析、叠加分析、景观指数分析等地理空间分析方法,定量描述了道路和居民地建设导致的紫金山地区景观破碎化和植被指数损失。结果表明:(1)研究区沟谷底部坡度低于8°,与两侧坡度相差较大,景观被沟谷切割,直接侵蚀面积占区域总面积的6.19%;(2)2018年紫金山地区道路密度达0.70 km·km^-2,交通便利的同时,刺激了周边居民地的扩张,导致4.01%的区域被道路和居民地直接压占;(3)区内64.87%的面积间接受到人类活动的影响,道路和居民地将景观切割为249个斑块,景观破碎化程度极高,仅有10.44%的斑块适合作为中小型野生动物栖息地;(4)2018年紫金山地区18.09%植被NDVI受沟谷侵蚀和人类活动的共同影响,植被覆盖空间差异性显著。紫金山地区地表景观主要受人类活动的严重干扰,导致野生动物栖息地和植被NDVI受到一定影响。     

基于鸟类栖息地季节性变化的自然保护区动态分区管理——以安徽升金湖国家级自然保护区为例

鸟类栖息地会随着季节迁徙而改变,基于此对以珍稀濒危鸟类保护为主要目标的自然保护区进行动态分区管理,能够有效提高土地利用效率,协调生物多样性保护与其他生态系统服务功能利用。通过MaxEnt模型分析预测安徽升金湖国家级自然保护区鸟类繁殖季和越冬季的栖息地范围,并采用空间叠加分析方法得到动态分区方案。结果发现：繁殖季鸟类栖息地适宜性受到人口密度、丰水期土地利用类型、距居民点距离、距道路距离等环境因素的影响;越冬季鸟类受到距道路距离、人口密度、距枯水期水体距离、枯水期土地利用类型等环境因素的影响。运用ArcGIS水文工具分析出升金湖国家级自然保护区汇水单元作为其动态区划单元,根据鸟类栖息地季节性变化的特点结合分析结果叠加分析,将安徽升金湖国家级自然保护区划分为核心栖息地保护区、繁殖季栖息地保护区、越冬季栖息地保护区和一般控制区。核心栖息地保护区要进行全年严格保护,繁殖季栖息地保护区和越冬季栖息地保护区在相应鸟类栖息时段严格管控、非栖息时段可合理利用,一般控制区则全年可允许合理的行为活动。季节性动态分区方案注重解决安徽省升金湖国家级自然保护区生态环境保护和社区发展之间的矛盾问题,便于未来保护区生态保护规划决策的制定和实施,进一步丰富了以季节性栖息物种为主要保护对象的自然保护区的动态功能分区研究理论与方法体系,为制定提高自然保护区空间利用效率的生态管理策略提供了参考依据。综上,建议在升金湖国家级自然保护区生态环境保护和社区发展中,依据保护区季节性动态分区特征,实行分区管制,制定对应的生态环境保护和发展的措施。     

基于地理探测器的四川省大熊猫国家公园生态环境时空变化及其归因分析

大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)栖息地的生态环境状况直接决定了大熊猫种群繁衍和延续，定量评估其生态环境状况及其影响因素对国家大熊猫公园的规划和管理具有重要的科学意义和实践参考价值。本文以四川省邛崃山-大相岭片区大熊猫国家公园为研究对象，基于遥感生态指数(remote sensing ecological index, RSEI),分析了公园建立前(2015年)后(2021年)生态环境状况的时空变化，并利用地理探测器定量分析了自然及社会驱动因子对公园生态环境状况的贡献。结果发现：(1)公园生态环境状况为“优”和“良”的等级比例较高(～70%),且多分布于核心保护区，表明区域生态环境状况整体较好。(2)与2015年相比，2021年“优”、“差”等级的RSEI比例均有所降低，主要转移为“良”、“中”等级。区域生态状况整体变化不大，但存在较明显的空间差异性。其中，海拔较高的西北区域及人类干扰较多的一般控制区的生态环境状况波动较大。(3)自然因素是导致本区域生态环境状况变化的主要驱动因素，其次为人为因素。各自然因子的贡献大小排序为：归一化植被指数(NDVI,0.87)>...     

基于东北虎潜在栖息地保护的自然保护地整合

东北虎(Panthera tigris altaica)是我国国家一级重点保护野生动物,现主要分布在张广才岭、老爷岭和完达山等地的几个自然保护区内。在这些自然保护区周边还分布有大量的森林公园、风景名胜区、湿地公园等不同类型的自然保护地,这些自然保护地在一定程度上也可为东北虎提供栖息场所,但管理目标、管理体制等原因造成了人为的范围隔离、空间重叠等各种乱象。为响应我国建立以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系,为东北虎豹国家公园建设提供支撑,本文基于44个东北虎分布点信息和11个相关环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型对东北虎的潜在栖息地进行了预测。基于东北虎栖息地范围内的国家级自然保护区、国家森林公园,国家湿地公园等自然保护地与东北虎栖息地的适宜性等级分布格局,利用成本距离法对东北虎栖息地范围内的自然保护地进行了整合研究。结果发现:(1)东北虎在我国的潜在适宜分布区主要集中在穆棱市、珲春市、敦化市、宁安市、延吉市、海林市、东宁县、汪清县、饶河县、宝清县,共约10000 km2,占黑龙江、吉林二省总面积的1.5%;(2)东北虎潜在扩散区共约51000 km2,占黑龙江、吉林二省总面积的8%;(3)以成本距离图中等值线值为0.5作为边界,将30个自然保护区及周边47个其他类型的自然保护地划分为9个自然保护地群,总面积为77818. 7 km2,以供未来东北虎的保护和自然保护地整合中参考。     

基于移动窗口法的肃州绿洲化与景观破碎化时空变化

以甘肃省酒泉市肃州绿洲为例,以1990、1999和2010年3期Landsat TM/ETM同月相数据为数据源,基于Arc GIS与Fragstats软件,采用移动窗口法、转移矩阵和景观指数等开展绿洲化与景观破碎化的时空变化研究。结果表明:(1)肃州绿洲化过程主要表现为绿洲面积变化和内部土地利用类型之间的转化。绿洲面积变化以耕地、草地和城市建设用地等的增加为主;绿洲土地利用类型转换主要表现为耕地内部变化、草地与未利用地,城市建设用地与未利用地之间的转换等。(2)景观破碎化程度整体上呈减缓趋势,其剧变区多集中于绿洲边缘的银达镇、三墩镇、黄泥堡乡和下河清乡等,景观破碎化在空间上表现为由绿洲内部向边缘区转移。(3)以草地为主的绿洲荒漠过渡带是绿洲扩张和景观破碎化的多发区,更是维持绿洲稳定和可持续发展的关键子区。研究可为绿洲景观管理和可持续发展提供科学依据。     

Connectivity of Tiger (Panthera tigris) Populations in the Human-Influenced Forest Mosaic of Central India

Today, most wild tigers live in small, isolated Protected Areas within human dominated landscapes in the Indian subcontinent. Future survival of tigers depends on increasing local population size, as well as maintaining connectivity between populations. While significant conservation effort has been invested in increasing tiger population size, few initiatives have focused on landscape-level connectivity and on understanding the effect different landscape elements have on maintaining connectivity. We combined individual-based genetic and landscape ecology approaches to address this issue in six protected areas with varying tiger densities and separation in the Central Indian tiger landscape. We non-invasively sampled 55 tigers from different protected areas within this landscape. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian genetic assignment tests indicate long-range tiger dispersal (on the order of 650 km) between protected areas. Further geo-spatial analyses revealed that tiger connectivity was affected by landscape elements such as human settlements, road density and host-population tiger density, but not by distance between populations. Our results elucidate the importance of landscape and habitat viability outside and between protected areas and provide a quantitative approach to test functionality of tiger corridors. We suggest future management strategies aim to minimize urban expansion between protected areas to maximize tiger connectivity. Achieving this goal in the context of ongoing urbanization and need to sustain current economic growth exerts enormous pressure on the remaining tiger habitats and emerges as a big challenge to conserve wild tigers in the Indian subcontinent.     

Leopard (Panthera pardus) occupancy in the Chure range of Nepal

Conservation of large carnivores such as leopards requires large and interconnected habitats. Despite the wide geographic range of the leopard globally, only 17% of their habitat is within protected areas. Leopards are widely distributed in Nepal, but their population status and occupancy are poorly understood. We carried out the sign‐based leopard occupancy survey across the entire Chure range (~19,000 km²) to understand the habitat occupancy along with the covariates affecting their occupancy. Leopard signs were obtained from in 70 out of 223 grids surveyed, with a naïve leopard occupancy of 0.31. The model‐averaged leopard occupancy was estimated to be 0.5732 (SE 0.0082) with a replication‐level detection probability of 0.2554 (SE 0.1142). The top model shows the additive effect of wild boar, ruggedness, presence of livestock, and human population density positively affecting the leopard occupancy. The detection probability of leopard was higher outside the protected areas, less in the high NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) areas, and higher in the areas with livestock presence. The presence of wild boar was strong predictor of leopard occupancy followed by the presence of livestock, ruggedness, and human population density. Leopard occupancy was higher in west Chure (0.70 ± SE 0.047) having five protected areas compared with east Chure (0.46 ± SE 0.043) with no protected areas. Protected areas and prey species had positive influence on leopard occupancy in west Chure range. Similarly in the east Chure, the leopard occupancy increased with prey, NDVI, and terrain ruggedness. Enhanced law enforcement and mass awareness activities are necessary to reduce poaching/killing of wild ungulates and leopards in the Chure range to increase leopard occupancy. In addition, maintaining the sufficient natural prey base can contribute to minimize the livestock depredation and hence decrease the human–leopard conflict in the Chure range.     

社区水平森林景观格局动态特征与驱动因素

基于高分辨率SPOT-5影像、TM影像和农户调查数据,以及相关辅助数据,选取三峡库区典型森林大县石柱县三星乡石星村为样区,利用景观格局指数与Logistic回归分析法,对1994—2014年间的森林景观格局的动态特征及其影响因素进行分析,旨在丰富人们对社区水平森林景观格局动态的理解和认识,为森林景观恢复和可持续经营策略的制定提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)样区森林景观一直占据20年间景观基质的主导地位,空间分布上退化原始林主要集中分布在中东部低山、深丘区,次生林、退化林地和人工林呈镶嵌格局,分散于主要基质性景观中;(2)20年间样区森林景观整体呈先减少后增加的"U"型格局,表现为1994—2004年间的退化与2004—2014年间的恢复两个截然相反的过程,且这一过程主要发生在森林景观与水田、旱地、居民点、道路等接壤区;(3)2004—2014年间森林景观的演化趋势与1994—2004年间整体上呈反向趋势,空间格局上,这一阶段森林景观的恢复主要出现在1994—2004年间森林景观所发生退化的区域;(4)20年间样区森林景观在斑块水平上呈明显异质性分布,3个截面年份不同森林景观破碎化程度的总排序均为退化林地人工林次生林退化原始林,且退化原始林、次生林和退化林地的破碎度变化趋势相同,均为先增后减;(5)20年间样区森林景观在景观水平上的破碎度呈现先增强后减弱趋势,且2014年的破碎化程度恢复至低于1994年的水平,进一步说明在退化后的森林景观恢复过程中,生态完整性的恢复速度远低于破碎速度;(6)社会经济因素对20年间样区森林景观变化的影响最突出,其中,最主要的影响因素是人口密度变化,先增后减的变化使生态压力随之增减,进而导致森林景观的退化与恢复。其次是农民人均纯收入变化,特别是2004—2014年农民人均纯收入的增加,促进能源结构的转型,减少了对森林景观的依赖和干扰。空间距离对森林景观的影响具有稳定的持续作用,居民对森林景观的干扰多经由距离因素而实现。自然因素控制大地貌格局,中短时期内对森林景观变化影响不大,次生林和退化林地因处于适宜开发的边缘地带,受自然环境影响较大。     

Tiger and leopard co-occurrence: intraguild interactions in response to human and livestock disturbance

Intraguild interactions have important implications for carnivore demography and conservation. Differences in how predators respond to different forms of disturbance might alter their interaction patterns. We sought to understand how human and livestock disturbance impact co-occurrence of sympatric large carnivores such as tiger (Panthera tigris) and leopard (P. pardus) and thereby mediate the intraguild interaction pattern to enable coexistence of the species in a human-dominated landscape. We surveyed 361 locations in Chitwan National Park, Nepal, to examine how prey abundance and disturbance factors such as human and livestock presence might influence habitat use by tigers and leopards independently and when co-occurring. Single-species single-season models and two-species single-season models were developed to examine hypotheses on unconditional detection and occupancy and species interaction respectively. Pervasive human use of the park had negative impacts on tiger occupancy while the abundance of prey had a positive influence. Despite significant prey overlap between tigers and leopards, none of the native prey species predicted leopard habitat occupancy. However, habitats used extensively by livestock were also used by leopards. Further, we found strong evidence of intraguild competition. For instance tiger occupancy was higher in prey-rich areas and leopard occupancy was low in the sites where tigers were present. These findings, and a species interaction factor of < 1 clearly indicate that leopards avoid tigers, but their use of areas of disturbance enables them to persist in fringe habitats. We provide empirical evidence of how intraguild interaction may result in habitat segregation between competing carnivores, while also showing that human and livestock use of the landscape create disturbance patterns that facilitate co-occurrence of the predators. Thus, because large carnivores compete, some disturbance may mediate coexistence in small protected areas. Understanding such interactions can help address important conservation challenges associated with maintaining diverse carnivore communities in small or disturbed landscapes.     

晋北大型露天矿区景观生态风险时空异质性

矿产资源开采对生态环境产生了剧烈扰动,加剧了矿区生态环境的风险性,严重威胁区域的可持续发展。从景观生态学角度将景观格局与生态风险相结合对矿区生态环境进行评估,从而揭示矿区景观生态风险的时空异质性,促进土地资源的可持续利用。以1990-2018年7期Landsat TM影像解译后的土地利用现状数据为数据源,构建景观生态风险指数,结合空间统计学及地统计学理论,探究1990-2018年平朔矿区景观生态风险的时空异质性。结果表明:1990-2018年平朔矿区景观生态风险的空间分布呈集聚分布模式,Moran’s I指数处于0.53~0.68,Z得分远高于检验阈值1.96,风险的空间集聚效应明显。1990-2018年平朔矿区的景观生态风险等级以中低、中、中高水平为主,占全区总面积的70%~90%,低风险区域主要分布于井坪镇以及白堂乡与向阳堡乡的大片林地,耕地是中等风险的主要分布区域,高风险区域逐渐向矿界内的矿业核心区收缩。1990-2018年平朔矿区景观生态风险空间异质性中的随机变异均小于空间自相关变异,由空间自相关部分引起的空间异质性占据主导地位。研究表明,在0.50 km×0.50 km的研究尺度下,1990—2018年平朔矿区景观生态风险具有很强的时空异质性,时间上呈现先增加后降低的趋势,空间相关性显著,空间分异特征明显。     

Opportunities of habitat connectivity for tiger (Panthera tigris) between Kanha and Pench National Parks in Madhya Pradesh, India

The Tiger (Panthera tigris) population in India has undergone a sharp decline during the last few years. Of the number of factors attributed to this decline, habitat fragmentation has been the most worrisome. Wildlife corridors have long been a subject of discussion amongst wildlife biologists and conservationists with contrasting schools of thought arguing their merits and demerits. However, it is largely believed that wildlife corridors can help minimize genetic isolation, offset fragmentation problems, improve animal dispersal, restore ecological processes and reduce man animal conflict. This study attempted to evaluate the possibilities of identifying a suitable wildlife corridor between two very important wildlife areas of central India--the Kanha National Park and the Pench National Park--with tiger as the focal species. Geographic Information System (GIS) centric Least Cost Path modeling was used to identify likely routes for movement of tigers. Habitat suitability, perennial water bodies, road density, railway tracks, human settlement density and total forest edge were considered as key variables influencing tiger movement across the Kanha-Pench landscape. Each of these variables was weighted in terms of relative importance through an expert consultation process. Using different importance scenarios, three alternate corridor routes were generated of which one was identified as the most promising for tiger dispersal. Weak links--where cover and habitat conditions are currently sub-optimal--were flagged on the corridor route. Interventions aimed at augmenting the identified corridor route have been suggested using accepted wildlife corridor design principles. The involvement of local communities through initiatives such as ecotourism has been stressed as a crucial long term strategy for conservation of the Kanha-Pench wildlife corridor. The results of the study indicate that restoration of the identified wildlife corridors between the two protected areas is technically feasible.     

广西滨海区域景观格局分析及土地利用变化预测

研究滨海湿地景观动态及其发展趋势对于维持沿海地区可持续发展具有重要意义。利用移动窗口法分析广西滨海湿地景观格局时空变化,同时提取珍珠湾、茅尾海和丹兜海典型区进一步分析景观变化趋势,最后采用土地利用变化模型(Land Change Modeler,LCM)预测区域未来的景观演化趋势。结果表明,2000—2014年间,草地、乔木园地和常绿阔叶灌木林面积减少,而工业用地面积明显增加。研究区总体的景观异质性变化不大,破碎化趋势不明显。比较景观格局指数发现,边缘密度和多样性指数的空间分布特征相似,多样性指数较大的区域,边缘密度也大,并且多集中于珍珠湾、茅尾海和研究区的中东部。3个典型区的格局变化趋势相似,景观多样性指数降低而均匀度增加,其中,湿地斑块数目减少且所占面积比也减少。LCM模型结果表明,至2020年,草本湿地与森林灌丛湿地面积进一步降低,而工业用地和居民区则持续增长;其中,3个典型区土地利用变化均受到了工业发展的影响,以珍珠湾土地利用动态度最高,茅尾海其次,而丹兜海最小。当前,区域景观的变化明显降低了湿地植被的质量,加强湿地植被保护,限制工业区域的无序发展是维持区域生境完整和安全的有效途径。     

Modelling differential extinctions to understand big cat distribution on Indonesian islands

Aims To model differential extinction rates for island populations of tigers Panthera tigris and leopards P. pardus. Location Indonesia. Methods We built VORTEX population models of tiger and leopard populations on an island the size of Bali (3632 km²), using data from the literature. Results The tiger populations were less extinction prone than the leopard populations. This was unexpected as tigers had the smaller population sizes and, as such, might be assumed to be more extinction prone. We identified several aspects of tiger breeding biology that explain the result. Main conclusions Sea level reconstructions suggest that both tiger and leopard would have been present in Java, Sumatra and Bali at the end of the last glacial. Our model provides a plausible mechanism based on population ecology to explain why these leopard populations were more extinction prone than the tiger populations. In addition it illustrates the potential utility of population ecology models in understanding historical patterns in biogeography.     

Effects of a protection gradient on carnivore density and survival: an example with leopards in the Luangwa valley,Zambia

Human activities on the periphery of protected areas can limit carnivore populations, but measurements of the strength of such effects are limited, largely due to difficulties of obtaining precise data on population density and survival. We measured how density and survival rates of a previously unstudied leopard population varied across a gradient of protection and evaluated which anthropogenic activities accounted for observed patterns. Insights into this generalist's response to human encroachment are likely to identify limiting factors for other sympatric carnivore species. Motion‐sensitive cameras were deployed systematically in adjacent, similarly sized, and ecologically similar study areas inside and outside Zambia's South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) from 2012 to 2014. The sites differed primarily in the degree of human impacts: SLNP is strictly protected, but the adjacent area was subject to human encroachment and bushmeat poaching throughout the study, and trophy hunting of leopards prior to 2012. We used photographic capture histories with robust design capture–recapture models to estimate population size and sex‐specific survival rates for the two areas. Leopard density within SLNP was 67% greater than in the adjacent area, but annual survival rates and sex ratios did not detectably differ between the sites. Prior research indicated that wire‐snare occurrence was 5.2 times greater in the areas adjacent to the park. These results suggest that the low density of leopards on the periphery of SLNP is better explained by prey depletion, rather than by direct anthropogenic mortality. Long‐term spatial data from concurrent lion studies suggested that interspecific competition did not produce the observed patterns. Large carnivore populations are often limited by human activities, but science‐based management policies depend on methods to rigorously and quantitatively assess threats to populations of concern. Using noninvasive robust design capture–recapture methods, we systematically assessed leopard density and survival across a protection gradient and identified bushmeat poaching as the likely limiting factor. This approach is of broad value to evaluate the impacts of anthropogenic activities on carnivore populations that are distributed across gradients of protection.