Mapping tree species vulnerability to multiple threats as a guide to restoration and conservation of tropical dry forests

Understanding the vulnerability of tree species to anthropogenic threats is important for the efficient planning of restoration and conservation efforts. We quantified and compared the effects of future climate change and four current threats (fire, habitat conversion, overgrazing and overexploitation) on the 50 most common tree species of the tropical dry forests of northwestern Peru and southern Ecuador. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict species distribution ranges, employed freely accessible spatial datasets to map threat exposures, and developed a trait‐based scoring approach to estimate species‐specific sensitivities, using differentiated trait weights in accordance with their expected importance in determining species sensitivities to specific threats. Species‐specific vulnerability maps were constructed from the product of the exposure maps and the sensitivity estimates. We found that all 50 species face considerable threats, with an average of 46% of species’ distribution ranges displaying high or very high vulnerability to at least one of the five threats. Our results suggest that current levels of habitat conversion, overexploitation and overgrazing pose larger threats to most of the studied species than climate change. We present a spatially explicit planning strategy for species‐specific restoration and conservation actions, proposing management interventions to focus on (a) in situ conservation of tree populations and seed collection for tree planting activities in areas with low vulnerability to climate change and current threats; (b) ex situ conservation or translocation of populations in areas with high climate change vulnerability; and (c) active planting or assisted regeneration in areas under high current threat vulnerability but low climate change vulnerability, provided that interventions are in place to lower threat pressure. We provide an online, user‐friendly tool to visualize both the vulnerability maps and the maps indicating priority restoration and conservation actions.     

A Global-Scale Evaluation of Primate Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Change

Human-induced climate change poses many potential threats to nonhuman primate species, many of which are already threatened by human activities such as deforestation, hunting, and the exotic pet trade. Here, we assessed the exposure and potential vulnerability of all nonhuman primate species to projected future temperature and precipitation changes. We found that overall, nonhuman primates will experience 10 % more warming than the global mean, with some primate species experiencing >1.5 °C for every °C of global warming. Precipitation changes are likely to be quite varied across primate ranges (from >7.5 % increases per °C of global warming to >7.5 % decreases). We also identified individual endangered species with existing vulnerabilities (owing to their small range areas, specialized diet, or restricted habitat use) that are expected to experience the largest climate changes. Finally, we defined hotspots of primate vulnerability to climate changes as areas with many primate species, high concentrations of endangered species, and large expected climate changes. Although all primate species will experience substantial changes from current climatic conditions, our hotspot analysis suggests that species in Central America, the Amazon, and southeastern Brazil, as well as portions of East and Southeast Asia, may be the most vulnerable to the anticipated impacts of global warming. It is essential that impacts of human-induced climate change be a priority for research and conservation planning in primatology, particularly for species that are already threatened by other human pressures. The vulnerable species and regional hotspots that we identify here represent critical priorities for conservation efforts, as existing challenges are expected to become increasingly compounded by the impacts of global warming.     

Hotspots of species loss do not vary across future climate scenarios in a drought‐prone river basin

Climate change is expected to alter the distributions of species around the world, but estimates of species’ outcomes vary widely among competing climate scenarios. Where should conservation resources be directed to maximize expected conservation benefits given future climate uncertainty? Here, we explore this question by quantifying variation in fish species’ distributions across future climate scenarios in the Red River basin south‐central United States. We modeled historical and future stream fish distributions using a suite of environmental covariates derived from high‐resolution hydrologic and climatic modeling of the basin. We quantified variation in outcomes for individual species across climate scenarios and across space, and identified hotspots of species loss by summing changes in probability of occurrence across species. Under all climate scenarios, we find that the distribution of most fish species in the Red River Basin will contract by 2050. However, the variability across climate scenarios was more than 10 times higher for some species than for others. Despite this uncertainty in outcomes for individual species, hotspots of species loss tended to occur in the same portions of the basin across all climate scenarios. We also find that the most common species are projected to experience the greatest range contractions, underscoring the need for directing conservation resources toward both common and rare species. Our results suggest that while it may be difficult to predict which species will be most impacted by climate change, it may nevertheless be possible to identify spatial priorities for climate mitigation actions that are robust to future climate uncertainty. These findings are likely to be generalizable to other ecosystems around the world where future climate conditions follow prevailing historical patterns of key environmental covariates.     

Central European vascular plants requiring priority conservation measures – an analysis from national Red Lists and distribution maps

A joint analysis considering the world-wide distribution and threat status of Central European vascular plants was carried out to derive conservation priorities for threatened species. A list of 417 taxa is presented, which are threatened throughout Central Europe and/or show a predominantly Central European distribution. As a first step, all plants mentioned in Central European national Red Lists were included in a synoptic table, resulting in a total of 3255 taxa threatened or rare in at least one country. To select species with a high conservation priority, two parameters were estimated: threat status for Central Europe and a new category termed responsibility for the conservation of a species. As criteria for this second parameter, we used the proportion of Central Europe on the world range of a species, the position of Central Europe within this range, and its world-wide threat status. A simple category system including four responsibility categories is proposed. For all species selected, threat status and a responsibility assessment for the whole of Central Europe is given, as well as position and proportion of Central Europe on their world range. By comparison of threat status and responsibility, this list provides a background for assessing national conservation priorities as well as for making decisions about inclusion in international conventions on species conservation. This was shown by a comparison of the species selected using this approach with those included in the two most important European instruments for species conservation – the Berne Convention and the Habitats Directive.     

Global conservation priorities for marine turtles

Where conservation resources are limited and conservation targets are diverse, robust yet flexible priority-setting frameworks are vital. Priority-setting is especially important for geographically widespread species with distinct populations subject to multiple threats that operate on different spatial and temporal scales. Marine turtles are widely distributed and exhibit intra-specific variations in population sizes and trends, as well as reproduction and morphology. However, current global extinction risk assessment frameworks do not assess conservation status of spatially and biologically distinct marine turtle Regional Management Units (RMUs), and thus do not capture variations in population trends, impacts of threats, or necessary conservation actions across individual populations. To address this issue, we developed a new assessment framework that allowed us to evaluate, compare and organize marine turtle RMUs according to status and threats criteria. Because conservation priorities can vary widely (i.e. from avoiding imminent extinction to maintaining long-term monitoring efforts) we developed a “conservation priorities portfolio” system using categories of paired risk and threats scores for all RMUs (n = 58). We performed these assessments and rankings globally, by species, by ocean basin, and by recognized geopolitical bodies to identify patterns in risk, threats, and data gaps at different scales. This process resulted in characterization of risk and threats to all marine turtle RMUs, including identification of the world''s 11 most endangered marine turtle RMUs based on highest risk and threats scores. This system also highlighted important gaps in available information that is crucial for accurate conservation assessments. Overall, this priority-setting framework can provide guidance for research and conservation priorities at multiple relevant scales, and should serve as a model for conservation status assessments and priority-setting for widespread, long-lived taxa.     

Global trends of habitat destruction and consequences for parrot conservation

Human advance on natural habitats is a major cause of biodiversity loss. This transformation process represents a profound change in wooded environments, disrupting original communities of flora and fauna. Many species are highly dependent on forests, especially parrots (Psittaciformes) with almost a third of their species threatened by extinction. Most parrot species occur in tropical and subtropical forests, and given the forest dependence of most species, this is the main reason why habitat loss has been highlighted as the main threat for the group. Such habitat loss acts in synergy with other important threats (e.g., logging and poaching), which become especially problematic in certain developing countries along tropical latitudes. In this study, we used available information on parrot distributions, species traits, IUCN assessment, habitat loss and timber extraction for different periods, and distribution of protected areas, to determine conservation hotspots for the group, and analyze potential changes in the conservation status of these species. We detected four conservation hotspots for parrots: two in the Neotropics and two in Oceania, all of them facing different degrees of threat in regard of current habitat loss and agricultural trends. Our results suggest that the future of the group is subject to policymaking in specific regions, especially in the northeastern Andes and the Atlantic Forest. In addition, we predicted that agricultural expansion will have a further negative effect on the conservation status of parrots, pushing many parrot species to the edge of extinction in the near future. Our results have conservation implications by recommending protected areas in specific parrot conservation hotspots. Our recommendations to mitigate conservation risks to this group of umbrella species would also benefit many other coexisting species as well.     

Integration of hotspot identification,gap analysis,and niche modeling supports the conservation of Chinese threatened higher plants

A significant fraction of higher plants in China are threatened due to dramatic landscape transformation and increasing climate change. However, the conservation effectiveness of threatened higher plants (THPs) and their response to climate change are still underexplored to date. Based on the latest list of THPs in China, we obtained 102 593 occurrence records with latitude and longitude for 3858 THPs. By integrating the distribution patterns of three biodiversity indexes (i.e., species richness, species complementarity, and weighted endemism) and 10 plant categories, we identified hotspots for THPs and calculated the conservation effectiveness of nature reserves. We then selected 1959 THPs to project the shift of species richness and range sizes under climate change (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 2.6 and RCP 8.5). In total, 16 hotspot areas covering 7.38% of Chinese land area and containing 91.73% of THPs were identified. Current nature reserves protected 35.05% of hotspots, 73.07% of all THPs, and 56.64% of narrow-ranged species. By the 2070s, the species richness of THPs were predicted to decrease in Southeast and Central China, and 42.42% (RCP 2.6) and 51.40% (RCP 8.5) of the 1959 THPs would confront habitat contraction. Future conservation efforts should focus on the conservation gaps and carry out targeted conservation for THPs with narrow distribution range. In order to cope with climate change, the hotspots with relatively low species loss can serve as important areas to contain current species diversity and the areas with high species gain offer opportunities for ex-situ conservation of THPs.     

The key elements of a comprehensive global mammal conservation strategy

A global strategy is necessary to achieve the level of coordination, synergy and therefore optimization of resources to achieve the broad goal of conserving mammals worldwide. Key elements for the development of such a strategy include: an institutional subject that owns the strategy; broad conservation goals, quantitative targets derived from them and appropriate indicators; data on the distribution of species, their threats, the cost-effectiveness of conservation actions; and a set of methods for the identification of conservation priorities. Previous global mammal research investigated phylogeny, extinction risk, and the species and areas that should be regarded as global conservation priorities. This theme issue presents new key elements: an updated Red List Index, a new list of evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered species, new high-resolution mammal distribution models, a global connectivity analysis and scenarios of future mammal distribution based on climate and land-cover change. Area prioritization schemes account for mammalian phylogeny, governance and cost-benefit of measures to abate habitat loss. Three discussion papers lay the foundations for the development of a global unifying mammal conservation strategy, which should not be further deterred by the knowledge gaps still existing.     

全球200:确定大尺度生物多样性优先保护的一种方法

生物多样性保护的优先性研究成为保护生物学研究的焦点之一,“全球２００”是世界自然基金会确立的旨在拯救地球上急剧损失的生物多样性优先保护区域的清单,是确定大尺度生物多样性优先保护的一种方法。本文介绍了“全球２００”的研究方法,分析了在应用中存在中存在的问题,着重讨论了“全球２００”中涉及到中国的部分以及它们与中国目前的生物多样性保护关键地区的异同。     

Current and projected future risks of freshwater fish invasions in China

Biological invasions are a primary threat to global biodiversity, supporting mounting calls for the development of early‐warning systems to manage existing and emerging invaders. Here, we evaluated the geographical pattern of invasion risks of currently established and potentially emerging nonnative freshwater fishes in China by jointly considering the threats of introduction and establishment under climate change. Introduction threats were estimated according to proxies of human activities and propagule pressure for two primary pathways (aquaculture or ornamental). Establishment threats for 51 current and 64 potential invaders (based on whether having established or not self‐sustaining populations) were assessed using an ensemble of species distribution models under current (1960–1990) and future [2041–2060 (2050s) and 2061–2080 (2070s)] climate scenarios. Geographical patterns of invasion risk were then assessed by overlaying the threats of introduction and establishment for each species group both in present‐day and in the future. We found that eastern China displayed the highest threat of introduction. By contrast, southeastern and northwestern regions were identified as the most suitable for the establishment of both current and potential invaders. Under a changing climate, 83 out of 115 species displayed an increase in habitat suitability, resulting in an overall increase of 4.8% by 2050s and 7.1% by 2070s in the extent of suitable habitat for nonnative freshwater fishes. Taken together, invasion risk was found to be highest in southeastern China and lowest in the Tibet Plateau. Our research highlights the importance of assessing invasion risk by integrating the threats associated with the introduction and establishment stages. In particular, our findings revealed convergent patterns of invasion risk between current and potential nonnative freshwater fishes under climate change. Geographic patterns in hotspots of existing and emerging invasions provide critical insights to guide the allocation of resources to monitor and control existing and emerging invasions in China.     

Integrating genetics and suitability modelling to bolster climate change adaptation planning in Patagonian <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nothofagus</Emphasis> forests

We investigated the impact of past changes in habitat suitability on the current patterns of genetic diversity of two southern beeches (Nothofagus nervosa and Nothofagus obliqua) in their eastern fragmented range in Patagonian Argentina, and model likely future threats to their population genetic structure. Our goal was to develop a spatially-explicit strategy for guiding conservation and management interventions in light of climate change. We combined suitability modelling under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum ~ 21,000 bp), and future (2050s) climatic conditions with genetic characterization data based on chloroplast DNA, isozymes, and microsatellites. We show the complementary usefulness of the distribution of chloroplast haplotypes and locally common allelic richness calculated from microsatellite data for identifying the locations of putative glacial refugia. Our findings suggest that contemporary hotspots of genetic diversity correspond to convergence zones of different expansion routes, most likely as a consequence of admixture processes. Future suitability predictions suggest that climate change might differentially affect both species. All genetically most diverse populations of N. nervosa and several of N. obliqua are located in areas that may be most severely impacted by climate change, calling for forward-looking conservation interventions. We propose a practical spatially- explicit strategy to target conservation interventions distinguishing priority populations for (1) in situ conservation (hotspots of genetic diversity likely to remain suitable under climate change), (2) ex situ conservation in areas where high genetic diversity overlaps with high likelihood of drastic climate change, (3) vulnerable populations (areas expected to be negatively affected by climate change), and (4) potential expansion areas under climate change.     

气候速度影响下中国周边海域鲨鱼保护优先区识别

鲨鱼在气候变化和人类活动等因素的影响下面临着种群衰退的风险,开展鲨鱼保护优先区研究是鲨鱼保护行动的重要工作.将气候速度引入鲨鱼保护优先区的识别过程,旨在阐明中国周边海域鲨鱼现状保护成效和保护空缺,并预测气候速度影响下的鲨鱼保护优先区空间格局及其变化趋势.以集成物种分布模型模拟的146种鲨鱼栖息地作为保护对象,以2015年至2100年两种气候变化情景下的气候速度作为保护的机会成本,基于系统保护规划理论模拟现状和未来情景下的鲨鱼保护优先区选址方案.研究结果表明：（1）长江口以南至台湾海峡和北部湾近岸海域为鲨鱼多样性分布的主要区域,台湾海峡区域亦为珍稀濒危物种的重要分布区;（2）在两种气候情景下,南海中南部将面临较高的气候变化风险,而长江口以南至珠江口的近岸海域气候速度均相对较低,提示了这些区域或能成为气候变化影响下的生物避难所;（3）现有保护区仅保护了1.33%的海域和不到4%的鲨鱼物种,尚存在较大的保护空缺.当保护海域比例提升至10%时,可覆盖绝大多数鲨鱼物种.而当比例提升至30%时,珍稀濒危物种的栖息地将得到有效保护;（4）气候变化影响下保护优先区选址将发生不同程度的变化,尤其是在中国南海区域,如在保护规划时兼顾气候速度,可在满足相似保护目标的前提下减少保护优先区内25%以上的气候压力,以使其具有较强的应对气候变化潜力。     

Threat patterns for endemic plants of Argentina reveal disparity of vulnerability and protection among spatially associated species groups

Given the accelerated rate of environmental degradation and climate change, there is an urgent need to protect biodiversity, especially endemic species with restricted ranges. However, which areas should be prioritized for protection remains a critical issue. A common approach to prioritizing conservation is to rank areas using species-level metrics. Nevertheless, biodiversity and threat patterns can become complex when the amounts of data increase. Here, we analyzed the distribution of 1570 Argentinean endemic plants using clustering of spatially associated species to disentangle distribution and threat patterns. We explored vulnerability levels in each cluster using mean values of species-level metrics of vulnerability, relating values obtained to the regions and environments they occupy. For each cluster we also identified its hotspots and evaluated the effectiveness of the current protected area network for their conservation. Results yielded nine main clusters, mostly differentiated by their geographic distribution and by the ecoregions they occupy. Metrics revealed disparity in vulnerability levels among clusters, with the highest values recorded for clusters related to the Central Puna in northwestern Argentina, to the Espinal, Humid Pampas, and Low Monte in the east of the country, and to the Patagonian steppe in the south. Likewise, coverage by protected areas was low for most hotspots, with the lowest values recorded for the Patagonian cluster. In particular, for hotspot of this cluster, located along the Patagonian steppe in southern Chubut and northeastern Santa Cruz provinces, analyses showed that it has both high levels of vulnerability and low levels of protection, giving it the highest conservation priority of the entire pool analyzed. Our findings identify gaps in the current protected area network and highlight key areas in need of conservation policies and strategies, both in situ and ex situ, to protect the endemic plants of Argentina.     

Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

Using spatial predictions of future threats to biodiversity, we assessed for the first time the relative potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the threat status of plant species. We thus estimated how many taxa could be affected by future threats that are usually not included in current IUCN Red List assessments. Here, we computed the Red List status including future threats of 227 Proteaceae taxa endemic to the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, and compared this with their Red List status excluding future threats. We developed eight different land use and climate change scenarios for the year 2020, providing a range of best‐ to worst‐case scenarios. Four scenarios include only the effects of future land use change, while the other four also include the impacts of projected anthropogenic climate change (HadCM2 IS92a GGa), using niche‐based models. Up to a third of the 227 Proteaceae taxa are uplisted (become more threatened) by up to three threat categories if future threats as predicted for 2020 are included, and the proportion of threatened Proteaceae taxa rises on average by 9% (range 2–16%), depending on the scenario. With increasing severity of the scenarios, the proportion of Critically Endangered taxa increases from about 1% to 7% and almost 2% of the 227 Proteaceae taxa become Extinct because of climate change. Overall, climate change has the most severe effects on the Proteaceae, but land use change also severely affects some taxa. Most of the threatened taxa occur in low‐lying coastal areas, but the proportion of threatened taxa changes considerably in inland mountain areas if future threats are included. Our approach gives important insights into how, where and when future threats could affect species persistence and can in a sense be seen as a test of the value of planned interventions for conservation.     

Biodiversity Hotspots and Conservation Priorities in the Campo-Ma’an Rain Forests,Cameroon

Until recently, patterns of species richness and endemism were based on an intuitive interpretation of distribution maps with very limited numerical analyses. Such maps based solely on taxonomic collections tend to concentrate on collecting efforts more than biodiversity hotspots, since often the highest diversity is found in well-collected areas. During the last decades, there has been an overwhelming concern about the loss of tropical forest biological diversity, and an emphasis on the identification of biodiversity hotspots in an attempt to optimise conservation strategies. Furthermore, the concept of sites of high diversity, or hotspots, has attracted the attention of conservationists as a tool for conservation priority settings. With the development of GIS tools, geostatistics, phytosociological and multivariate analysis software packages, more rigorous numerical analyses of distributional and inventory data can be used for assessing conservation priorities. In the Campo-Ma’an rain forest, inventory data from 147 plots of 0.1 ha each and 7137 taxonomic collections were used to examine the distribution and convergence patterns of strict and narrow endemic species. We analysed the trends in endemic and rare species recorded, using quantitative conservation indices such as Genetic Heat Index (GHI) and Pioneer Index (PI), together with geostatistic techniques that help to evaluate and identify potential areas of high conservation priority. The results showed that the Campo-Ma’an area is characterised by a rich and diverse flora with 114 endemic plant species, of which 29 are restricted to the area, 29 also occur in southwestern Cameroon, and 56 others that are also found in other parts of Cameroon. Although most of the forest types rich in strict and narrow endemic species occur in the National Park, there are other biodiversity hotspots in the coastal zone and in areas such as Mont d’Eléphant and Massif des Mamelles that are located outside the National Park. Unfortunately, these areas, supporting 17 strict endemic species that are not found in the park, are under serious threat and do not have any conservation status for the moment. Taking into consideration that with the growing human population density, pressure on these hotspots will increase in the near future, it is suggested that priority be given to the conservation of these areas and that a separate management strategy be developed to ensure their protection.     

Persistent and novel threats to the biodiversity of Kazakhstan’s steppes and semi-deserts

Temperate grasslands have suffered disproportionally from conversion to cropland, degradation and fragmentation. A large proportion of the world’s remaining near-natural grassland is situated in Kazakhstan. We aimed to assess current and emerging threats to steppe and semi-desert biodiversity in Kazakhstan and evaluate conservation research priorities. We conducted a horizon-scanning exercise among conservationists from academia and practice. We first compiled a list of 45 potential threats. These were then ranked by the survey participants according to their perceived severity, the need for research on them, and their novelty. The highest-ranked threats were related to changes in land use (leading to habitat loss and deterioration), direct persecution of wildlife, and rapid infrastructure development due to economic and population growth. Research needs were identified largely in the same areas, and the mean scores of threat severity and research need were highly correlated. Novel threats comprised habitat loss by photovoltaic and wind power stations, climate change and changes in agriculture such as the introduction of biofuels. However, novelty was not correlated with threat severity or research priority, suggesting that the most severe threats are the established ones. Important goals towards more effective steppe and semi-desert conservation in Kazakhstan include more cross-sector collaboration (e.g. by involving stakeholders in conservation and agriculture), greater allocation of funds to under-staffed areas (e.g. protected area management), better representativeness and complementarity in the protected area system and enhanced data collection for wildlife monitoring and threat assessments (including the use of citizen-science databases).     

A Vulnerability Assessment of 300 Species in Florida: Threats from Sea Level Rise,Land Use,and Climate Change

Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri), Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii), Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis), and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium). We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida’s biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.     

Phylogenetically-informed priorities for amphibian conservation

The amphibian decline and extinction crisis demands urgent action to prevent further large numbers of species extinctions. Lists of priority species for conservation, based on a combination of species' threat status and unique contribution to phylogenetic diversity, are one tool for the direction and catalyzation of conservation action. We describe the construction of a near-complete species-level phylogeny of 5713 amphibian species, which we use to create a list of evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered species (EDGE list) for the entire class Amphibia. We present sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of our priority list to uncertainty in species' phylogenetic position and threat status. We find that both sources of uncertainty have only minor impacts on our 'top 100' list of priority species, indicating the robustness of the approach. By contrast, our analyses suggest that a large number of Data Deficient species are likely to be high priorities for conservation action from the perspective of their contribution to the evolutionary history.     

Scale‐dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse‐resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine‐resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro‐ and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long‐term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales.     

Climate change hastens the conservation urgency of an endangered ungulate

Global climate change appears to be one of the main threats to biodiversity in the near future and is already affecting the distribution of many species. Currently threatened species are a special concern while the extent to which they are sensitive to climate change remains uncertain. Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) is classified as endangered and a conservation focus on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using measures of species range shift, we explored how the distribution of Przewalski's gazelle may be impacted by projected climate change based on a maximum entropy approach. We also evaluated the uncertainty in the projections of the risks arising from climate change. Modeling predicted the Przewalski's gazelle would be sensitive to future climate change. As the time horizon increased, the strength of effects from climate change increased. Even assuming unlimited dispersal capacity of gazelles, a moderate decrease to complete loss of range was projected by 2080 under different thresholds for transforming the probability prediction to presence/absence data. Current localities of gazelles will undergo a decrease in their occurrence probability. Projections of the impacts of climate change were significantly affected by thresholds and general circulation models. This study suggests climate change clearly poses a severe threat and increases the extinction risk to Przewalski's gazelle. Our findings 1) confirm that endangered endemic species is highly vulnerable to climate change and 2) highlight the fact that forecasting impacts of climate change needs an assessment of the uncertainty. It is extremely important that conservation strategies consider the predicted geographical shifts and be planned with full knowledge of the reliability of projected impacts of climate change.