Towards a global database of weed risk assessments: a test of transferability for the tropics

Worldwide spread and establishment of alien plant species continues to accelerate and damage ecological and agricultural systems. Early warning and prevention of high-risk introductions is the most cost-effective approach to minimise losses while maximising benefits, and the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (A-WRA) system has been the most well-developed and successful predictive scheme. However, any system would be limited if the results or scores were confined to the locality of assessment. We compiled A-WRA scores conducted in four tropical to sub-tropical regions and tested the accuracy of these scores for predicting naturalisations for a separate well-documented, equatorial, exotic flora where weed risk assessments have never been conducted. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves reflect high accuracies of predictions, comparable to those in other studies. No significant differences in accuracy were found between each regional subset and the compiled set of scores. Our results show that A-WRA scores assessed at one locality can be used for others of similar climate, increasing the utility of every species’ assessment. A global database of A-WRA scores would enable rapid local decision-making in border controls on imported plant species. A growing record of species assessments would also facilitate monitoring evolutionary and ecological aspects of invasive species.     

The biogeography of non-marine molluscs in the Tuscan Archipelago reveals combined effects of current eco-geographical drivers and paleogeography

We investigated the role of present (Recent) and historical (Pleistocene, i.e., Würmian Last Glacial Maximum) eco-geographical variables on the richness and diversity of non-marine molluscs in the Tuscan Archipelago, as well as inter-island faunal dissimilarity and relationships with source pools (Sardinia and Corsica, Tuscany). The association between species richness and present and historical eco-geographical variables were assessed with Spearman’s rank correlation test, while faunal dissimilarity both between islands and with their source pools was analyzed through beta-diversity partitioning (Sørensen index and its nestedness and turnover component) with UPGMA clustering tested with a multiscale bootstrap procedure. Non-metric multidimensional scaling in RGB color space was also used. Multiple regressions on distance matrices were then applied to explain assemblage composition between islands. Analyses were performed on all species and on all species except aliens. The overall framework showed the combined effects of current eco-geographical and paleogeographical imprints on non-marine malacofauna in the Tuscan Archipelago. However, excluding aliens, differences in species spatial turnover showed a clear correlation with Pleistocene inter-island distances, evidence of stronger historical biogeographical relationships between islands. This may indicate that widespread native species established their distribution during the Pleistocene, while alien species spread into the Tuscan Archipelago through stochastic and human-mediated dispersion events in recent times. Interestingly, Giglio’s relationships do not agree with the most accepted paleogeographical model, suggesting that this island might have been connected to the Tuscan mainland during the Würmian Last Glacial Maximum. An in-depth revision of the paleogeographic framework of the northern Tyrrhenian is therefore called for.     

The relationships between cuticular hydrocarbon composition, faunal assemblages, inter-island distance, and population genetic variation in Tuscan Archipelago wasps

Until recently, studies examining the geographical distribution of insects in the Tuscan Archipelago have focused on paleogeography as the primary influence on species distributions. However, for flying insects such as Hymenoptera that may be able to disperse over water, current geographical location is likely to be more important in determining present distributions within the Archipelago. Here we compare mainland and island wasp populations using genetic variation and cuticular hydrocarbon composition of the vespid wasp Polistes dominulus, and species composition of wasps in the family Pompilidae. Both chemical and genetic data result in similar clustering of P. dominulus populations that reflect present geographical location. Moreover, we found current geographical distance to be significantly correlated with P. dominulus population genetic differentiation and Pompilidae faunal composition. These data suggest that dispersal over present sea distances is more important in determining population differentiation and species distribution in the Tuscan Archipelago than paleogeography.     

Benthic marine flora in the Tuscan Archipelago. A first contribution: Isles of Capraia,Elba, Formiche di Grosseto,Giglio, Scoglio d'Africa,Montecristo and Giannutri

Abstract

Benthic marine flora of Tuscan Archipelago has been studied. Several samples were collected along five islands and some rocks. This paper is a compendium of new and already published data, in which 267 species, varieties, forms and stadia of algae and seagrasses are listed: 5 Bangiophyceae, 182 Florideophyceae, 45 Phaeophyceae, 6 Chlorophyceae, 28 Bryopsidophyceae, 1 Angiospermae.     

A phylogenetic study of two recently described endemic species of the Saxifraga granulata group from the central-north Mediterranean region (Italy) and their position in the context of the series Saxifraga (Saxifragaceae)

On two small islands of the Tuscan Archipelago, two new endemic species of the Saxifraga granulata group, namely S. caprariae and S. montis-christi, were recently described on a morphological basis. This led us to investigate these species using a molecular approach involving the analysis of ITS and trnL-F regions. Our aims were: to highlight their phylogenetic traits; to confirm or reject the hypothesis that they are more closely related to S. corsica than to S. granulata; and to verify their phylogenetic position in the context of Saxifraga L. ser. Saxifraga. We considered all the species belonging to the ser. Saxifraga and some other species of sect. Saxifraga – a total of 19 species. We generated 10 new DNA sequences, six for ITS and four for trnL-trnF. We produced separate Bayesian and Maximum likelihood trees for both ITS and trnL-trnF regions and we analysed the genetic distances among the new endemics and the more closely related species. The phylogenetic analyses showed that S. caprariae and S. montis-christi are relatively well separated from S. granulata and more related to S. corsica. This supports the taxonomic treatment previously proposed. We showed that the results of our phylogenetic analysis are in agreement with our biogeographic knowledge of the Tuscan Archipelago and the neighbouring territories and emphasize the conservation relevance of these findings.     

Big troubles are already here: risk assessment protocol shows high risk of many alien plants present in Portugal

Invasion by alien plants results in serious adverse impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services, economy and social welfare, and is an ever-increasing challenge for nature conservation. Control of established invasive species is frequently very difficult and costly. Therefore, predicting which species have risk of becoming invasive is crucial both to prevent introduction of new invaders and to target high risk species already present in order to avoid their spread, particularly to areas with high conservation value. In Portugal more than 600 alien plant species are present as casuals or naturalized, and decision support tools are needed to discriminate which of these have higher probability of becoming invasive. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the Australian Weed Risk Assessment, adapted to the Portuguese conditions (P-WRA), by evaluating 172 plant species: 49 considered as invasive; and, 123 as non-invasive species. The results showed that the P-WRA correctly identified all invasive species. As for non-invasive species, 17% were accepted, 78% rejected and 5% required further evaluation. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve reflected high accuracy of predictions despite lower than that found in other regions. The best cutoff level for P-WRA score, maximizing the ability for classification of the protocol, was 13 resulting in more non-invasive species accepted (46%). In the end, this assessment informed that in addition to the 49 species already invasive, a high number (66) of alien plant species have invasive risk. Amongst these, a list of 20 species is proposed for targeted priority management aiming to prevent their spread. Comparison of the scores obtained with A-WRA for other regions with Mediterranean climate revealed that 17% of the species compared (78) reached different outcomes, signaling the need to be careful when extrapolating the use of previous scores. The P-WRA can be a promising screening system post-border for predicting invasive species already present in Portugal and contribute to the targeting of species for priority intervention, particularly in natural areas with high conservation value.     

Prioritizing Biosecurity Risks Using a Participatory Decision-Making Tool

A decision framework called Deliberative Multi-Criteria Evaluation (DMCE) was developed and deployed to prioritize biosecurity risks using a variety of subjective and objective information. To aid stakeholders in the prioritization of Emergency Plant Pest (EPP) species risk, we presented them with outputs from a Stella-based bio-economic pest risk model, and probable ecological and socioeconomic impacts. The stakeholder participants weighted the consequence criteria they deemed to have the highest expected impact. The methodology featured an uncertain set of parameters, multiple iterations of criteria weighting along with real-time sensitivity analysis. Of the five criteria, economic cost was weighted the highest at 26% while landscape amenity was weighted the lowest at the 10–12% range. The increased understanding and support gained by stakeholders through the DMCE process provided a greater likelihood of the sanctioning of the policies concerned and progress toward desired outcomes.     

Integration of Ecosystem Services into Ecological Risk Assessment for Implementation in Ecosystem-Based River Management: A Case Study of the Yellow River,China

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a scientific tool used to support ecosystem-based management (EBM), but most current ERA methods consider only a few indices of particular species or components. Such limitations restrict the scope of results so that they are insufficient to reflect the integrated risk characterization of an ecosystem, thereby inhibiting the application of ERA in EBM. We incorporate the concept of ecosystem services into ERA and develop an improved ERA framework to create a comprehensive risk map of an ecosystem, accounting for multiple human activities and ecosystem services. Using the Yellow River as a case study, we show how this framework enables the implementation of integrated risk characterization and prioritization of the most important ecological risk issues in the ecosystem-based river management of the Yellow River. This framework can help practitioners facilitate better implementation of ERA within EBM in rivers or any target ecosystem.     

Pachybrachis sassii, a new species from the Mediterranean Giglio Island (Italy) (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae, Cryptocephalinae)

Pachybrachis sassii, new species is described from Giglio Island, of the Tuscan Archipelago (Italy). The new species belongs to the nominotypical subgenus and is closely related to Pachybrachis salfii Burlini, 1957, from which it differs in the shape of the median lobe of the aedeagus and in the pattern of the yellow raised spots on the elytra and pronotum. Ecological observations are made. The neotype of Pachybrachis salfii from Colloreto, Monte Pollino (Italy) is designated.     

Identifying potentially invasive non‐native marine and brackish water species for the Arabian Gulf and Sea of Oman

Invasive non‐native species (NNS) are internationally recognized as posing a serious threat to global biodiversity, economies and human health. The identification of invasive NNS is already established, those that may arrive in the future, their vectors and pathways of introduction and spread, and hotspots of invasion are important for a targeted approach to managing introductions and impacts at local, regional and global scales. The aim of this study was to identify which marine and brackish NNS are already present in marine systems of the northeastern Arabia area (Arabian Gulf and Sea of Oman) and of these which ones are potentially invasive, and which species have a high likelihood of being introduced in the future and negatively affect biodiversity. Overall, 136 NNS were identified, of which 56 are already present in the region and a further 80 were identified as likely to arrive in the future, including fish, tunicates, invertebrates, plants and protists. The Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS‐ISK) was used to identify the risk of NNS being (or becoming) invasive within the region. Based on the AS‐ISK basic risk assessment (BRA) thresholds, 36 extant and 37 horizon species (53.7% of all species) were identified as high risk. When the impact of climate change on the overall assessment was considered, the combined risk score (BRA+CCA) increased for 38.2% of all species, suggesting higher risk under warmer conditions, including the highest‐risk horizon NNS the green crab Carcinus maenas, and the extant macro‐alga Hypnea musciformis. This is the first horizon‐scanning exercise for NNS in the region, thus providing a vital baseline for future management. The outcome of this study is the prioritization of NNS to inform decision‐making for the targeted monitoring and management in the region to prevent new bio‐invasions and to control existing species, including their potential for spread.     

Risk assessment model for the introduction of non‐native freshwater fish into New Zealand

A risk assessment model was developed to score the potential risk for both the establishment and impact of introduced freshwater fish species in New Zealand. Although based on similar models developed for Australia and the UK, it is customised to a New Zealand context in which the risk of a site‐specific ecological impact is of more concern than the potential for a species to spread rapidly and widely (i.e. its invasiveness). The model was calibrated using data on 21 introduced fish species already present in New Zealand and tested on eight species not present but for which a decision on introduction has been made using other methods. Threshold scores for risk of establishment, risk of impact and overall risk of causing ecological damage were set based on current knowledge and incorporated into a decision support system to provide managers with a numerical (vs subjective) basis for deciding on whether or not to permit the entry of a new species. The model assists in decision‐making on the introduction of new species and also provides a means of assessing the ecological risk posed by the further spread of those introduced fish already present.     

Nest predation risk and growth strategies of passerine species: grow fast or develop traits to escape risk?

Abstract Different body components are thought to trade off in their growth and development rates, but the causes for relative prioritization of any trait remains a critical question. Offspring of species at higher risk of predation might prioritize development of locomotor traits that facilitate escaping risky environments over growth of mass. We tested this possibility in 12 altricial passerine species that differed in their risk of nest predation. We found that rates of growth and development of mass, wings, and endothermy increased with nest predation risk across species. In particular, species with higher nest predation risk exhibited relatively faster growth of wings than of mass, fledged with relatively larger wing sizes and smaller mass, and developed endothermy earlier at relatively smaller mass. This differential development can facilitate both escape from predators and survival outside of the nest environment. Tarsus growth was not differentially prioritized with respect to nest predation risk, and instead all species achieved adult tarsus size by age of fledging. We also tested whether different foraging modes (aerial, arboreal, and ground foragers) might explain the variation of differential growth of locomotor modules, but we found that little residual variation was explained. Our results suggest that differences in nest predation risk among species are associated with relative prioritization of body components to facilitate escape from the risky nest environment.     

Alien plants in southern South America. A framework for evaluation and management of mutual risk of invasion between Chile and Argentina

Most of the Chilean traffic exchange takes place along the border with Argentina. The road network between both countries facilitates the transport of alien plant species, raising the chance of new introductions of plant species and increasing the propagule pressure of already introduced plants. We used a modified version of the Australian Weed Risk Assessment method (AWRA) to analyze if alien plant species already present either exclusively in Chile or Argentina can be a potential source of risk for new alien species introduction and, specifically, which of the two countries poses a higher risk for its counterpart. We recorded 875 alien species of which 288 are exclusive to Chile, 283 are exclusive to Argentina, and 304 are shared by both countries. Considering the risk of new alien plants introductions, Chile presents a higher threat to Argentina than vice versa. Specifically, twenty-two alien species are exclusive to Chile, and are present on roadsides connecting both countries, hence they are regarded as a top risk for Argentina; a comparable top risk of alien species is absent from Argentinean roadsides. Both countries have a similar number of alien species being exclusive to one country, but are not present along roadsides (Chile 162; Argentina 186), which could represent a potential risk to the other country. The methodological approach proposed here may be a useful tool not only for screening potential new alien plant introductions, but also for the prioritization of eradication or control measures of those species already introduced.     

Predicting risk of invasion in a Mediterranean island using niche modelling and valuable biota

Invasion by alien species is nowadays considered as one of the major threats to biodiversity. Thus, the identification of the areas exposed to a greater risk of invasion represents a priority for management purpose, especially in presence of habitats worthy of conservation. This paper aims to propose a method to produce a map of risk of invasion, merging together the threat of invasion by invasive plants and the distribution of habitats with high conservation value, on the case study of the Island of Elba (Tuscan Archipelago). We modelled the potential distribution of six particularly harmful invasive plants and merged these distributions into a map of threat of invasion. This map was overlapped to the map of density of Natura2000 habitats, finally obtaining a map of risk of invasion. According to our analyses, the potential distribution of the invasive species resulted highly influenced by human-related factors. The habitats more at risk are those closer to streets and anthropic habitats, which are more likely to be colonized by the invasive species we studied. We identified some rare habitats which are strongly endangered, highlighting that around 20% of the surface of the Island is exposed to some level of risk of invasion.     

TWO NEW SPECIES OF THE GENUS ISLAMIA RADOMAN, 1973 FROM ITALIAN ISLANDS (PROSOBRANCHIA, HYDROBIIDAE)

Two new Italian species of the genus Islamia (Prosobranchia:Hydrobiidae), one living in eastern Sicily (I. cianensis), andone on Elba Island (Tuscan Archipelago, Italy) (I. gaiteri)are described. The two species are distinguished on the basisof shell and anatomical characters, mainly those of the malegenitalia. I. cianesis n. sp. is characterized by a valvatoidshell and a penial lobe with internal band of glandular tissuenot distinct in its lower portion from the penis body but bulgingapically as a small knob. I. gaiteri n. sp. is characterizedby a planispiral shell and a small lateral penial lobe withoutinternal glandular tissue. (Received 20 December 1993; accepted 27 June 1994)     

Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain

Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. Our aim was to consider IAS that were likely to impact on native biodiversity but were not yet established in the wild in Great Britain. To achieve this, we developed an approach which coupled consensus methods (which have previously been used for collaboratively identifying priorities in other contexts) with rapid risk assessment. The process involved two distinct phases:

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A Pilot Application of Regional Scale Risk Assessment to the Forestry Management of the Upper Grande Ronde Watershed,Oregon

An issue in forestry management has been the integration of a variety of different information into a threat analysis or risk assessment. In this instance, regional scale risk assessment was applied to the Upper Grande Ronde watershed in eastern Oregon to examine the potential of risk assessment for use in the management of broad landscapes. The site was a focus of study for the U.S. Forest Service through the Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System (INLAS) project. In the study, a range of stressors, habitats, and endpoints were identified from previous studies in the watershed, and endpoints were determined from meeting with the primary stakeholder, the U.S. Forest Service. These endpoints were focused around the historic range of variability (HRV) defined for the area. The relative risk model (RRM) incorporating a Monte Carlo analysis was used as the analysis tool. The risk model output showed the HRV fire regime was the endpoint most at risk. The results of this analysis were compared to the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest prioritization of watershed restoration analysis. The RRM demonstrated similar results but with a better accounting for uncertainty. From this trial the RRM has proven to be a potential management tool for forestry management.     

DNA barcoding reveals 24 distinct lineages as cryptic bird species candidates in and around the Japanese Archipelago

DNA barcoding using a partial region (648 bp) of the cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene is a powerful tool for species identification and has revealed many cryptic species in various animal taxa. In birds, cryptic species are likely to occur in insular regions like the Japanese Archipelago due to the prevention of gene flow by sea barriers. Using COI sequences of 234 of the 251 Japanese‐breeding bird species, we established a DNA barcoding library for species identification and estimated the number of cryptic species candidates. A total of 226 species (96.6%) had unique COI sequences with large genetic divergence among the closest species based on neighbour‐joining clusters, genetic distance criterion and diagnostic substitutions. Eleven cryptic species candidates were detected, with distinct intraspecific deep genetic divergences, nine lineages of which were geographically separated by islands and straits within the Japanese Archipelago. To identify Japan‐specific cryptic species from trans‐Paleartic birds, we investigated the genetic structure of 142 shared species over an extended region covering Japan and Eurasia; 19 of these species formed two or more clades with high bootstrap values. Excluding six duplicated species from the total of 11 species within the Japanese Archipelago and 19 trans‐Paleartic species, we identified 24 species that were cryptic species candidates within and surrounding the Japanese Archipelago. Repeated sea level changes during the glacial and interglacial periods may be responsible for the deep genetic divergences of Japanese birds in this insular region, which has led to inconsistencies in traditional taxonomies based on morphology.     

Extrapair paternities in black-browed Thalassarche melanophris, grey-headed T. chrysostoma and wandering albatrosses Diomedea exulans at South Georgia

Extrapair paternities (EPP) are relatively common in passerines, but rare in seabirds. Like most seabirds, albatrosses are long lived, form long-term pair bonds and require biparental care for chick-rearing. Microsatellite analyses of 327 chicks from black-browed Thalassarche melanophris , grey-headed T. chrysostoma and wandering albatrosses Diomedea exulans over two breeding seasons revealed the presence of EPP in all three species. Though EPP rates varied between species and years, up to 21% of offspring were the result of extrapair matings. Rates were highest in wandering albatrosses (6–21%) followed by grey-headed (3–10%) and black-browed (0–9%) albatrosses. EPP rates were lower in 1998 compared to 1999 in both black-browed and grey-headed albatrosses, whereas the reverse was true for wandering albatrosses. Interspecific differences in EPP rates may reflect differences in breeding phenology and sexual size dimorphism. Differences in timing and frequency of breeding may promote different opportunities for interactions with birds other than their normal partner. The different breeding habitat, dispersion and mate-attraction rituals in wandering albatross, together with the disparity in size between the sexes may also offer more scope for higher rates of EPP. Despite extensive sampling within each colony, we were unable to identify sires for many of the extrapair young; however males from other colonies were involved, raising interesting questions regarding the timing and nature of such events.     

A global risk assessment for the success of bird introductions

1.  Concern over the impact of invasive species has led to the development of risk assessment methodologies to identify potential invaders and prevent future ecological and economic problems. However, developing a risk assessment tool is challenging because of the difficulties of accurately predicting the outcome of species introductions.
2.  In this study, we develop a global risk assessment for birds. We integrate two approaches, generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and hierarchical tree models, to help identify those introductions with the highest risk of establishment success.
3.  Past work has shown that the number of individuals released is the main factor influencing establishment success in animals, a conclusion that was supported in our analyses. Establishment success was also higher for species with broader ecological niches and larger brains relative to body size. These features should increase the likelihood of finding an appropriate niche in the region of introduction.
4.  The GLMM and tree model predicted the probability of establishment success of birds in Europe and Australia with high accuracy (over 80% of introductions correctly classified). This highlights that establishment risk can be reasonably assessed with information on general habitat use, brain size and the size of the founder population. When compared with an alternative risk assessment tool based on a qualitative ranking, our quantitative approaches achieved higher accuracy with less information.
5.   Synthesis and applications. Quantitative risk assessments based on traits related to establishment success are difficult but feasible, providing a useful tool for guiding preventive polices aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive species.