Latitudinal shifts in the distribution of exploited fishes in Korean waters during the last 30 years: a consequence of climate change

Sea surface temperatures in Korean waters have increased by approximately 1 °C during the past 40 years, implying possible range shifts of marine fishes and invertebrates. We analyzed spatially explicit, commercial catch data for 12 major fish species collected from 1984 to 2010 in Korean waters to evaluate and project their range shifts based on climate-driven hydrographic changes simulated by a general circulation model under a climate change scenario. There were significant relationships between the mean latitude of the catch distribution and water temperature for seven of the 12 species examined. Our circulation model projected that temperature stratification in the Korea Strait will disappear by 2030, and our empirical relationships predicted that the ranges of five of the fish species examined will shift poleward by 19–71 km from the 2000s to the 2030s. Compared with studies of demersal fishes in the western North Atlantic and the North Sea, our estimated speeds of shift in mean latitude of fishes were, on average, slower by factors of 2.3 and 5.7, respectively. This suggests that the pattern of range shift of marine species can vary regionally, depending on oceanographic and geomorphologic conditions. International cooperative research among fisheries scientists from countries throughout the region, especially Japan and China, is required to more reliably and comprehensively assess and project the range shifts of fish species. This will provide a scientific basis for the development of fishery policies and their adaptation to climate change in the western North Pacific.     

Boreal forest dynamics in north-eastern Sweden during the last 10,000 years based on pollen analysis

A pollen record obtained from a 2.2-m sediment succession deposited in a small lake in the province of Västerbotten, north-eastern Sweden, reveals the presence of continuous forest cover since 8,500 calendar years before present (cal b.p.). Forest with abundant Pinus (pine) and Betula (birch) initially colonized the area, followed by a dominance of deciduous trees, primarily Betula, from ca. 8,000 to ca. 3,200 cal b.p. Pollen accumulation rates of Quercus (oak), Ulmus (elm) and Tilia (linden) suggest the possible local presence of these thermophilous tree species during this period. The climate gradually became colder and moister around 3,500 cal b.p. and an increased abundance of Sphagnum spores indicates paludification. Picea (spruce) became established around 3,200 cal b.p. and less than 500 years later this was the dominant tree species around the lake. The fire frequency as inferred from charcoal particles exhibits a general increase from ca. 3,000 cal b.p. with subsequent charcoal accumulation maxima at around 2,800 cal b.p., 1,700 cal b.p. and in recent time. The human influence on vegetation was significant during the last 200–300 years. Soil erosion increased substantially and fern spores amount to ca. 55% of the total pollen assemblage in the uppermost samples. These results suggest an extensive anthropogenic impact on the local forest ecosystem, with abundant logging, burning and ditching in the vicinity of the lake. Independent evidence of sub-recent human-induced environmental change is provided by historical accounts. Complementary information on catchment soil development and aquatic nutrient status was provided by records of magnetic susceptibility and elemental carbon, and nitrogen contents obtained from the same sediment core.     

Diabetes mellitus and the β cell: the last ten years

Diabetes is a major global problem. During the past decade, the genetic basis of various monogenic forms of the disease, and their underlying molecular mechanisms, have been elucidated. Many genes that increase type 2 diabetes (T2DM) risk have also been identified, but how they do so remains enigmatic. Nevertheless, defective insulin secretion emerges as the main culprit in both monogenic and polygenic diabetes, with environmental and lifestyle factors, via obesity, accounting for the current dramatic increase in T2DM. There also have been significant advances in therapy, particularly for some monogenic disorders. We review here what ails the β cell and how its function may be restored.     

Palaeolimnological evidence of environmental change over the last 400 years in the Rwenzori Mountains of Uganda

Tropical alpine areas may be highly sensitive to climate change. Yet, because high-resolution palaeoenvironmental studies in these regions are scant, patterns of environmental change over the last few centuries, and linkages with regional changes, remain poorly resolved. This article presents a 400-year palaeolimnological record from Lower Kitandara Lake (3,989 m above m.a.s.l.), located in the Rwenzori Mountains of Uganda, where marked glacial recession has been recorded over much of the twentieth century. An age model is produced for a 57.5 cm sediment core based on ²¹⁰Pb and ¹⁴C dating, suggesting a basal date of approximately 1600 AD. Diatom and organic geochemistry (%TOC, C/N ratios, δ¹³C) analyses are carried out at an approximately decadal resolution. Twentieth-century glacial recession does not appear to have significantly impacted either the diatom or geochemical records. However, large ecological changes have occurred during the past 400 years, particularly shown by the diatom fluxes and geochemical data. Throughout the core, the diatom record reveals only minor changes in assemblage composition, which may be related to the dominance of Staurosira construens var. venter in the lake’s diatom flora, a tychoplanktonic taxon which is highly adaptive to environmental change. Geochemical analyses, however, reveal a marked change at around the end of the eighteenth century, when C/N ratios suggest an increase in the dominance of algal aquatic sources to lacustrine organic matter, concomitant with a stabilisation of catchment inputs and increased diatom productivity, which may have been caused by reduced glacial inputs. The relationship between these changes at Lower Kitandara Lake and wider regional climate change that occurred at the end of the eighteenth century is not well understood, but this study highlights the need for additional research to link drivers of alpine ecosystem change with those operating at low altitudes.     

Eutrophication and agriculture in Denmark: 20 years of experience and prospects for the future

During the past two decades there has been growing public and political awareness of the consequences of eutrophication in Denmark. By the mid-1980s, the environmental status of inland and coastal waters had deteriorated due to high nutrient loads. Consequently, a number of different Action Plans against water pollution were introduced. In the agricultural sector, focus has been on reductions in nitrogen leaching obtained by the introduction of various measures: a maximum limit to the density of livestock, 9 months’ storage capacity for manure, catch crops for at least 6% of the land, enhanced utilization (up to 75%) of nitrogen in manure, etc. The agricultural sector in Denmark has implemented all of these measures, and as a result of the effort, the target for reductions in nitrogen leaching will be reached. Currently, the total loss of nitrogen from farmland is likely to be reduced by approximately 50% compared to the level in the mid-1980s. Some of the measures have been fair and based on sound arguments, and have been implemented with only minor difficulties, whereas others have proved troublesome and in our opinion disproportionately expensive. Today, further general regulation with equal restrictions toward all farmers regardless of differences in environmental impacts is no longer an acceptable path to follow. In the future, it will be necessary to pinpoint new measures in the most sensitive areas, where the potential for further reductions in nutrient loads is large. Danish Agriculture calls for specific actions—and consequently a shift in environmental management and policy making. Such a revised management strategy is the only path to follow in order to obtain further improvements in environmental conditions. Meanwhile, future development in the agricultural sector will be possible and a win–win situation can be reached. Guest editors: J. H. Andersen & D. J. Conley Eutrophication in Coastal Ecosystems: Selected papers from the Second International Symposium on Research and Management of Eutrophication in Coastal Ecosystems, 20–23 June 2006, Nyborg, Denmark     

Radical changes in the Wadden Sea fauna and flora over the last 2,000 years

Humans have interacted with the Wadden Sea since its origin 7,500 years ago. However, exploitation, habitat alteration and pollution have strongly increased since the Middle Ages, affecting abundance and distribution of many marine mammals, birds, fish, invertebrates and plants. Large whales and some large birds disappeared more than 500 years ago. Most small whales, seals, birds, large fish and oysters were severely reduced by the late 19th and early 20th centuries, leading to the collapse of several traditional fisheries. In the 20th century, conservation efforts have enabled some breeding birds and seals to recover. But other species declined further due to continuing exploitation, habitat destruction, pollution and eutrophication. Moreover, complex three-dimensional habitats such as oyster banks, Sabellaria reefs and subtidal eelgrass beds have been lost completely. In contrast, several opportunistic species such as gulls, polychaetes, green algae and exotic invaders increased during the 20th century. Taken together, multiple human impacts have caused dramatic losses of large predators and habitat-building species in the Wadden Sea over the last 500 years. Although still of high natural value and global importance, the Wadden Sea is a fundamentally changed ecosystem. On the other hand, reduced hunting pressure, increased habitat protection and reduced river pollution have enabled the recent recovery of several species and an increase in environmental quality. These successes, together with a historical vision of what was once possible, should guide current and future conservation, restoration and management efforts towards a more sustainable interaction between man and the sea.     

Will climate change promote future invasions?

Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.     

Vegetation dynamics in western Uganda during the last 1000 years: climate change or human induced environmental degradation?

A multi-proxy analysis of microfossils from sedimentary records, together with evidence from historical and archaeological data, has provided evidence of vegetation dynamics and human environment interactions in western Uganda for the last 1000 years. Pollen, fungal spores and phytoliths extracted from sediment cores obtained from a papyrus swamp at Munsa archaeological site indicate a relatively wet and forested environment in western Uganda prior to ca 1000 yr bp (cal 977–1159 ad ). A subsequent decline in forest vegetation occurred from ca 920 yr bp (cal 1027–1207 ad ). However, the deforestation period occurred during a wet period as registered in the River Nile water records, suggesting a human induced deforestation at Munsa rather than reduced precipitation. Increased numbers of herbivores, presumably domesticated cattle, postdeforestation are evidenced by the presence of dung fungal spores and broad accord with the archaeological evidence for initial occupation of the site at Munsa and the establishment of a mixed economy based on crops, cattle and iron working between 1000 and 1200 ad . From ca 200 yr bp (cal 1647–1952 ad ), forest recovery occurred at Munsa site and appears to reflect abandonment of the site, as suggested by archaeological evidence, possibly following a period of prolonged drought and famine between 1600 and 1800 ad , as recounted in the oral rich traditions of western Uganda and also reflected by low water levels of River Nile.     

Potential impact of climate change on fungal distributions: analysis of 2 years of contrasting weather in the UK

The impact of climate change on fungal growth and spore production is less well documented than for allergenic pollen grains, although similar implications for respiratory tract diseases in humans occur. Fungal spores are commonly described as either “dry” or “wet” according to the type of weather associated with their occurrence in the air. This study examined the distribution of selected fungal spores (Alternaria spp., Cladosporium spp., Didymella spp., Epicoccum spp., Leptosphaeria spp. and rusts) occurring in the West Midlands of UK during 2 years of contrasting weather. Spore specimens were collected using a 7-day volumetric air sampler and then analysed with the aid of light microscopy. Distributions of spores were then studied using normality tests and Mann–Whitney U test, while relationships with meteorological parameters were investigated using Spearman’s rank test and angular-linear correlation for wind direction analysis. Our results showed that so-called wet spores were more sensitive to the weather changes showing statistically significant differences between the 2 years of study, in contrast to “dry” spores. We predict that in following years we will observe accelerated levels in allergenic fungal spore production as well as changes in species diversity. This study could be a starting point to revise the grouping system of fungal spores as either “dry” or “wet” types and their response to climate change.     

Nutrient fluxes and water quality in the drainage network of the Scheldt basin over the last 50 years

and use and urban activity in the catchment of the Scheldt river system have deeply changed during the last 50 years, modifying in turn the water quality of the drainage network and the fluxes of nutrient transferred to the estuary and to the sea. Based on the RIVERSTRAHLER model, developed for establishing the link between the biogeochemical functioning of large river systems and the constraints set by the meteorology, the morphology of the drainage network and the human activity in the watershed, we reassembled the data available to document these constraints in the Scheldt basin since the last half of the XXth century and we used them to reconstruct the variations of nutrient and oxygen concentrations at the outlet of the Scheldt drainage network. We compared the results with the water quality data at the entrance of the estuarine zone available since the 1960s. Both model results and observational data show a very severe deterioration of water quality (with deep oxygen depletion) in the beginning of the 1960s, while a clear trend to improvement is apparent since the late 1980s. The budget of nutrient loadings from the watershed, retention within the drainage network and delivery to the estuarine zone is established on an annual basis for the 50 last years. The yearly fluxes of nutrient delivered by the river to the estuary and the sea show a severe depletion of silica with respect to nitrogen compared with the requirements of diatoms, and a clear shift from the early 1990s from nitrogen to phosphorus potential limitation. Seasonal variations of nutrient delivery are however much more pronounced for nitrogen, with much less inputs during the dry seasons, while phosphorus inputs, mainly from point sources are more constant, so that nitrogen limitation can still occur during summer. Compared with similar budget estimations carried out for the Seine river system, the Scheldt basin, in spite of its much higher population density, does not deliver higher specific fluxes of nutrient (presently about 2000 kgN/km²/yr, 80 kgP/km²/yr and 1000 kgSi/km²/yr), owing to very efficient processes of nutrient retention.     

Revealing monsoonal variability of the last 2,500 years over India using sedimentological and foraminiferal proxies

A 2-m-long, shallow-water sediment core, representing the last 2,500 years, collected from the tropical Arabian Sea from the inner shelf (22 m water depth) off Karwar, near the mouth of the Kali River, has been studied for sedimentological proxies (granulometry) and foraminiferal tracers of paleomonsoons. The results suggest a considerable decrease in the intensity of monsoons approximately around 2,000 years BP which is followed by an increase in the intensity of the precipitation around 1,000 years BP. The signals of similar climatic conditions around 2,000 years BP and around 1,000 years BP have also been recorded from other geographically distinct localities.     

Rapid morphological divergence in two closely related and co-occurring species over the last 50 years

We studied morphological variation in two closely related and ecologically similar species of mice of the genus Peromyscus, the deer mouse (P. maniculatus) and white-footed mouse (P. leucopus), over the last 50 years in Southern Quebec. We found that contemporary populations of the two species are distinct in morphology and interpret this differentiation as a reflection of resource partitioning, a mechanism favouring their local coexistence. While there was no size trend, geographic or temporal, both species displayed a concomitant change in the shape of their skull over the last 50 years, although this change was much more apparent in the white-footed mouse. As a result, the two species diverged over time and became more distinct in their morphology. The observed changes in morphology are large given the short time scale. During this period, there was also a shift in abundance of the two species in Southern Quebec, consistent with the northern displacement of the range of the white-footed mouse in the last 15 years. Our study thus reports the changes in morphology of two co-occurring mammal species that were accompanied by changes in distribution and local abundance, potentially in response to rapid climate change.     

Winter climate change in plant–soil systems: summary of recent findings and future perspectives

The winter climate is changing in many parts of the world, and it is predicted that winter climate change will modify the structure and function of plant–soil systems. An understanding of these changes and their consequences in terrestrial ecosystems requires knowledge of the linkage between above- and below-ground components as well as the species interactions found in plant–soil systems, which have important implications for biogeochemical cycles. However, winter climate-change studies have focused on only a part of the ecosystem or ecological process. We summarize here recent findings related to the effects of winter climate and its changes on soil nitrogen (N) dynamics, greenhouse gas (N₂O) emissions from the soil, N use by individual plants, vegetation development, and interactions between vegetation and pollinators to generate an integrative understanding of the response of the plant–soil system to winter climate change. This review indicates that the net effects on plants, soil microbes, pollinators, and the associated biogeochemical cycles are balanced among several processes and are highly variable depending on the context, such as the target species/functional group, original winter condition of the habitat, and type of climate change. The consequences of winter climate change for species interactions among plants, associated animals, and biogeochemical cycles are largely unknown. For further research, a large-scale comparative study to measure ecosystem-level functions is important, especially in less-cold ecosystems.     

Does dispersal capacity matter for freshwater biodiversity under climate change?

1. Freshwater ecosystems appear to be sensitive to even minor climatic shifts, and the dendritic nature of rivers as well as patchy distribution of habitats within the terrestrial landscape could limit the ability of species to track suitable climate conditions. Although the importance of dispersal is recognised in theory, there is great uncertainty when quantifying the capacity of species to shift their distributions in response to climate change.
2. The influence of dispersal capacity on species’ vulnerability to climate change was assessed, using the modelled projections of 527 freshwater species in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Species’ future ranges were calculated by iteratively identifying colonisation of accessible habitats and loss of suitable habitats within network models. The accessibility of new habitats was based on a given dispersal mode (aquatic, semi‐terrestrial and aerial). The relative impact of dispersal parameters on projected range were evaluated alongside other known sources of uncertainty (climate and emissions scenarios, modelling algorithm and biological group), analysed collectively in a generalised additive mixed‐model, and spatially to locate regions of NSW where projections are associated with the most uncertainty.
3. Our simulations (1.4 million scenario combinations) suggest at least a third of species will lose more than half their range under climate change. Nevertheless, we emphasise the broad uncertainty that any average encapsulates. Dispersal capacity only had a minor impact on projected range shifts relative to other modelling assumptions but the network‐pathways and maps of uncertainty have value for conservation planning at large scales. Projected range losses initially decreased rapidly as dispersal rates increased but the benefits are reduced above 2–3 km year^?1. Taxa restricted to dispersal within the stream network (aquatic) were more vulnerable to climate change than taxa with semi‐terrestrial or aerial dispersal and maps of variation due to dispersal mode and rate indicate where habitat connectivity would be most beneficial.
4. This study demonstrates the breadth of uncertainties that challenge plans for improving ecosystem adaptation under climate change and highlights where in the landscape those differences were consistent. We emphasise the need for freshwater conservation studies to be ecologically representative, to focus on broad‐scale connectivity for taxa that can move between catchments, and an accessible network of refugia for taxa with more limited dispersal.

     

The future of soil invertebrate communities in polar regions: different climate change responses in the Arctic and Antarctic?

The polar regions are experiencing rapid climate change with implications for terrestrial ecosystems. Here, despite limited knowledge, we make some early predictions on soil invertebrate community responses to predicted twenty‐first century climate change. Geographic and environmental differences suggest that climate change responses will differ between the Arctic and Antarctic. We predict significant, but different, belowground community changes in both regions. This change will be driven mainly by vegetation type changes in the Arctic, while communities in Antarctica will respond to climate amelioration directly and indirectly through changes in microbial community composition and activity, and the development of, and/or changes in, plant communities. Climate amelioration is likely to allow a greater influx of non‐native species into both the Arctic and Antarctic promoting landscape scale biodiversity change. Non‐native competitive species could, however, have negative effects on local biodiversity particularly in the Arctic where the communities are already species rich. Species ranges will shift in both areas as the climate changes potentially posing a problem for endemic species in the Arctic where options for northward migration are limited. Greater soil biotic activity may move the Arctic towards a trajectory of being a substantial carbon source, while Antarctica could become a carbon sink.     

Decline in seminal quality in Indian men over the last 37 years

Background

Since the first report of a decline in semen quality in 1974, there have been several reports of similar declines across populations. Despite some scattered reports of declining semen quality in the Indian sub-continent, comprehensive studies analyzing semen quality over the last few decades have not been undertaken. We undertook the present study to investigate the temporal trend in semen parameters in Indian populations over a period of 37 years (1979–2016).

Methods

Publications providing semen analysis details for fertile and infertile men from the Indian sub-continent were collected by a thorough literature search. Semen quality data for 6466 normal fertile or presumptive normal men (from 119 studies/data sets) and 7020 infertile men (from 63 studies/data sets) published between 1979 and 2016 were retrieved. We undertook systematic review and quantitative analysis of mean sperm count, motility, normal morphology and other available parameters. Data were analyzed to estimate semen parameters reference values for Indian men and to assess temporal trends in infertile, fertile and all subjects.

Results

Seminal quality shows a decreasing temporal trend and the decrease is higher in infertile than fertile males. In pooled analysis for all individuals, significant (p?<?0.05 or?<?0.001) declines in sperm concentration and normal morphology are observed; however, isolated analysis for each group shows declines without statistical significance. The mean (± SD) semen volume, sperm concentration, total motility, rapid linear progressive motility, normal sperm morphology and sperm viability for Indian fertile men are 2.88?±?0.77 ml, 81.08?±?29.21 million/ml, 66.37?±?10.95%, 52.64?±?15.78%, 56.68?±?20.23% and 72.63?±?8.31%, respectively, whereas in infertile these are 3.07?±?1.27 ml, 37.94?±?26.41 million/ml, 40.22?±?13.76%, 26.79?±?15.47%, 36.41?±?21.66% and 55.25?±?11.99%, respectively. The mean seminal parameter values were significantly lower (p?<?0.001) in infertile as compared to fertile men, except semen volume.

Conclusions

Semen parameters in Indian men have declined with time and the deterioration is quantitatively higher in the infertile group. The study also provides reference values for semen parameters in Indian men.

     

Changes and availability of P fractions following 65 years of P application to a calcareous soil in a Mediterranean climate

The fate and availability of P derived from granular fertilisers in an alkaline Calcarosol soil were examined in a 65-year field trial in a semi-arid environment (annual rainfall 325 mm). Sequential P fractionation was conducted in the soils collected from the trial plots receiving 0–12 kg P ha⁻¹crop⁻¹, and the rhizosphere soil after growing wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yitpi) and chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. cv. Genesis 836) for one or two 60-day cycles in the glasshouse. Increasing long-term P application rate over 65 years significantly increased all inorganic P (Pi) fractions except HCl–Pi. By contrast, P application did not affect or tended to decrease organic P (Po) fractions. Increasing P application also increased Olsen-P and resin-P but decreased the P buffer capacity and sorption maxima. Residual P, Pi and Po fractions accounted for an average of 32, 16 and 52% of total P, respectively. All soil P fractions including residual P in the rhizosphere soil declined following 60-day growth of either wheat or chickpea. The decreases were greater in soils with a history of high P application than low P. An exception was water-extractable Po, which increased following plant growth. Changes in various P fractions in the rhizosphere followed the same pattern for both plant species. Biomass production and P uptake of the plants grown in the glasshouse correlated positively with the residual P and inorganic fractions (except HCl–Pi) but negatively with Po in the H₂O-, NaOH- and H₂SO₄-fractions of the original soils. The results suggest that the long-term application of fertiliser P to the calcareous sandy soil built up residual P and non-labile Pi fractions, but these P fractions are potentially available to crops.     

Erosion of insect diversity in response to 7000 years of relative sea-level rise on a small Mediterranean island

We have investigated the potential effects of global sea-level rise on Mediterranean coastal wetlands by studying the Coleoptera and pollen fossil remains in a 7000-year sedimentary record, which we obtained from a coastal marshy area on a small Mediterranean island (Cavallo, southern Corsica). Using beetle structural diversity and plant composition as recorded prior to marine and human influences as a ‘past analogue’, we reconstructed the impact of the Holocene relative sea-level rise on the coastal ecosystem. Our results show that beetle species richness and diversity were highest when freshwater was predominant, which was the case until about 6200 years ago. We also found that a major increase in salinity had occurred over the last 5300 years, experiencing a peak rate of increase at about 3700 years ago. These changes are clearly reflected in the fossil records of the following key taxa: halophilous beetles (Ochthebius sp., Pterostichus cursor), halophilous plants (Chenopodiaceae, Tamarix) and non-pollen palynomorphs (microforaminiferal linings). In particular, we note that the majority (60%) of wetland beetle fauna became locally extinct in response to the salinity changes, and these changes were exacerbated by the recent aggravation of human pressures on the island. The major part of this diversity loss occurred 3700 years ago, when the relative Mediterranean sea-level rose above ?1.5 ± 0.3 meters. These findings demonstrate the value of fossil beetle assemblage analysis as a diagnostic for the response of coastal wetland biodiversity to past salinity increases, and serve as a means of forecasting the effects of sea-level rise in the future. The conservation of inland freshwater bodies could ultimately prove essential to preserving freshwater insect diversity in threatened coastal environments.