Inference for epidemic models with time‐varying infection rates: Tracking the dynamics of oak processionary moth in the UK

1. Invasive pests pose a great threat to forest, woodland, and urban tree ecosystems. The oak processionary moth (OPM) is a destructive pest of oak trees, first reported in the UK in 2006. Despite great efforts to contain the outbreak within the original infested area of South‐East England, OPM continues to spread.
2. Here, we analyze data consisting of the numbers of OPM nests removed each year from two parks in London between 2013 and 2020. Using a state‐of‐the‐art Bayesian inference scheme, we estimate the parameters for a stochastic compartmental SIR (susceptible, infested, and removed) model with a time‐varying infestation rate to describe the spread of OPM.
3. We find that the infestation rate and subsequent basic reproduction number have remained constant since 2013 (with R0 between one and two). This shows further controls must be taken to reduce R0 below one and stop the advance of OPM into other areas of England.
4. Synthesis. Our findings demonstrate the applicability of the SIR model to describing OPM spread and show that further controls are needed to reduce the infestation rate. The proposed statistical methodology is a powerful tool to explore the nature of a time‐varying infestation rate, applicable to other partially observed time series epidemic data.

     

Combining stereo‐video monitoring and physiological trials to estimate reef fish metabolic demands in the wild

Organismal metabolic rates (MRs) are the basis of energy and nutrient fluxes through ecosystems. In the marine realm, fishes are some of the most prominent consumers. However, their metabolic demand in the wild (field MR [FMR]) is poorly documented, because it is challenging to measure directly. Here, we introduce a novel approach to estimating the component of FMR associated with voluntary activity (i.e., the field active MR [AMRfield]). Our approach combines laboratory‐based respirometry, swimming speeds, and field‐based stereo‐video systems to estimate the activity of individuals. We exemplify our approach by focusing on six coral reef fish species, for which we quantified standard MR and maximum MR (SMR and MMR, respectively) in the laboratory, and body sizes and swimming speeds in the field. Based on the relationships between MR, body size, and swimming speeds, we estimate that the activity scope (i.e., the ratio between AMRfield and SMR) varies from 1.2 to 3.2 across species and body sizes. Furthermore, we illustrate that the scaling exponent for AMRfield varies across species and can substantially exceed the widely assumed value of 0.75 for SMR. Finally, by scaling organismal AMRfield estimates to the assemblage level, we show the potential effect of this variability on community metabolic demand. Our approach may improve our ability to estimate elemental fluxes mediated by a critically important group of aquatic animals through a non‐destructive, widely applicable technique.     

Simulating selection and evolution at the community level using common garden data

A key issue in evolutionary biology is whether selection acting at levels higher than the individual can cause evolutionary change. If it can, then conceptual and empirical studies must consider how selection operates at multiple levels of biological organization. Here, we test the hypothesis that estimates of broad‐sense community heritability, HC2, can be used to predict the evolutionary response by community‐level phenotypes when community‐level selection is imposed. Using an approach informed by classic quantitative genetics, we made three predictions. First, when we imposed community‐level selection, we expected a significant change in the average phenotype of arthropod communities associated with individual tree genotypes [we imposed selection by favoring high and low NMDS (nonmetric multidimensional scaling) scores that reflected differences in arthropod species richness, abundance and composition]. Second, we expected HC2 to predict the magnitude of the community‐level response. Third, we expected no significant change in average NMDS scores with community‐level selection imposed at random. We tested these hypotheses using three years of common garden data for 102 species comprising the arthropod communities, associated with nine clonally replicated Populus angustifolia genotypes. Each of our predictions were met. We conclude that estimates of HC2 account for the resemblance among communities sharing common ancestry, the persistence of community composition over time, and the outcome of selection when it occurs at the community level. Our results provide a means for exploring how this process leads to large‐scale community evolutionary change, and they identify the circumstances in which selection may routinely act at the community level.     

Patch utilization and flower visitations by wild bees in a honey bee‐dominated,grassland landscape

Understanding habitat needs and patch utilization of wild and managed bees has been identified as a national research priority in the United States. We used occupancy models to investigate patterns of bee use across 1030 transects spanning a gradient of floral resource abundance and richness and distance from apiaries in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States. Estimates of transect use by honey bees were nearly 1.0 during our 3.5‐month sampling period, suggesting honey bees were nearly ubiquitous across transects. Wild bees more frequently used transects with higher flower richness and more abundant flowers; however, the effect size of the native flower abundance covariate (β^native = 3.90 ± 0.65 [1SE]) was four times greater than the non‐native flower covariate (β^non‐native = 0.99 ± 0.17). We found some evidence that wild bee use was lower at transects near commercial apiaries, but the effect size was imprecise (β^distance = 1.4 ± 0.81). Honey bees were more frequently detected during sampling events with more non‐native flowers and higher species richness but showed an uncertain relationship with native flower abundance. Of the 4039 honey bee and flower interactions, 85% occurred on non‐native flowers, while only 43% of the 738 wild bee observations occurred on non‐native flowers. Our study suggests wild bees and honey bees routinely use the same resource patches in the PPR but often visit different flowering plants. The greatest potential for resource overlap between honey bees and wild bees appears to be for non‐native flowers in the PPR. Our results are valuable to natural resource managers tasked with supporting habitat for managed and wild pollinators in agroecosystems.     

Understanding the impact of correlation within pair‐bonds on Cormack–Jolly–Seber models

1. The Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model and its extensions have been widely applied to the study of animal survival rates in open populations. The model assumes that individuals within the population of interest have independent fates. It is, however, highly unlikely that a pair of animals which have formed a long‐term pairing have dissociated fates.
2. We examine a model extension which allows animals who have formed a pair‐bond to have correlated survival and recapture fates. Using the proposed extension to generate data, we conduct a simulation study exploring the impact that correlated fate data has on inference from the CJS model. We compute Monte Carlo estimates for the bias, range, and standard errors of the parameters of the CJS model for data with varying degrees of survival correlation between mates. Furthermore, we study the likelihood ratio test of sex effects within the CJS model by simulating densities of the deviance. Finally, we estimate the variance inflation factor c^ for CJS models that incorporate sex‐specific heterogeneity.
3. Our study shows that correlated fates between mated animals may result in underestimated standard errors for parsimonious models, significantly deflated likelihood ratio test statistics, and underestimated values of c^ for models taking sex‐specific effects into account.
4. Underestimated standard errors can result in lowered coverage of confidence intervals. Moreover, deflated test statistics will provide overly conservative test results. Finally, underestimated variance inflation factors can lead researchers to make incorrect conclusions about the level of extra‐binomial variation present in their data.

     

Singing strategies are linked to perch use on foraging territories in heart‐nosed bats

Acoustic communication allows animals to coordinate and optimize resource utilization in space. Cardioderma cor, the heart‐nosed bat, is one of the few species of bats known to sing during nighttime foraging. Previous research found that heart‐nosed bats react aggressively to song playback, supporting the territorial defense hypothesis of singing in this species. We further investigated the territorial defense hypothesis from an ecological standpoint, which predicts that singing should be associated with exclusive areas containing a resource, by tracking 14 individuals nightly during the dry seasons in Tanzania. We quantified the singing behavior of individuals at all perches used throughout the night. Using home range analysis tools, we quantified overall use, night ranges and singing ranges, as well as areas used in early and later time periods at night. Males sang back and forth from small (x¯ = 3.48 ± 2.71 ha), largely exclusive areas that overlapped with overall night ranges used for gleaning prey. Individuals varied in singing effort; however, all sang significantly more as night progressed. Subsequently, areas used earlier at night and overall use areas were both larger than singing areas. Individuals varied in singing strategies. Some males sang for long periods in particular trees and had smaller core areas, while others moved frequently among singing trees. The most prolific singers used more perches overall. Our results support the hypothesis that acoustic communication repertoires evolved in support of stable foraging territory advertisement and defense in some bats.     

Identifying potential drivers of distribution patterns of invasive Corbicula fluminea relative to native freshwater mussels (Unionidae) across spatial scales

This study aimed to identify the importance of ecological factors to distribution patterns of the invasive Clam (Corbicula fluminea) relative to native mussels (family: Unionidae) across seven rivers within the Mobile and Tennessee basins, Southeast United States. We quantitatively surveyed dense, diverse native mussel aggregations across 20 river reaches and estimated mussel density, biomass, and species richness along with density of invasive C. fluminea (hereafter Corbicula). We measured substrate particle size, velocity, and depth in quadrats where animals were collected. Additionally, we characterized reach scale environmental parameters including seston quantity and quality (% Carbon, % Nitrogen, % Phosphorous), water chemistry (ammonium [NH4+], soluble reactive phosphorous [SRP]), and watershed area and land cover. Using model selection, logistic regression, and multivariate analysis, we characterized habitat features and their association to invasive Corbicula within mussel beds. We found that Corbicula were more likely to occur and more abundant in quadrats with greater mussel biomass, larger substrate size, faster water velocity, and shallower water depth. At the reach scale, Corbicula densities increased where particle sizes were larger. Mussel richness, density, and biomass increased with watershed area. Water column NH4+ increased at reaches with more urban land cover. No land cover variables influenced Corbicula populations or mussel communities. The strong overlapping distribution of Corbicula and mussels support the hypothesis that Corbicula are not necessarily limited by habitat factors and may be passengers of change in rivers where mussels have declined due to habitat degradation. Whether Corbicula is facilitated by mussels or negatively interacts with mussels in these systems remains to be seen. Focused experiments that manipulate patch scale variables would improve our understanding of the role of species interactions (e.g., competition, predation, facilitation) or physical habitat factors in influencing spatial overlap between Corbicula and native mussels.     

Characterization of an aminotransferase from Acanthamoeba polyphaga Mimivirus

Acanthamoeba polyphaga Mimivirus, a complex virus that infects amoeba, was first reported in 2003. It is now known that its DNA genome encodes for nearly 1,000 proteins including enzymes that are required for the biosynthesis of the unusual sugar 4‐amino‐4,6‐dideoxy‐d‐glucose, also known as d‐viosamine. As observed in some bacteria, the pathway for the production of this sugar initiates with a nucleotide‐linked sugar, which in the Mimivirus is thought to be UDP‐d‐glucose. The enzyme required for the installment of the amino group at the C‐4′ position of the pyranosyl moiety is encoded in the Mimivirus by the L136 gene. Here, we describe a structural and functional analysis of this pyridoxal 5′‐phosphate‐dependent enzyme, referred to as L136. For this analysis, three high‐resolution X‐ray structures were determined: the wildtype enzyme/pyridoxamine 5′‐phosphate/dTDP complex and the site‐directed mutant variant K185A in the presence of either UDP‐4‐amino‐4,6‐dideoxy‐d‐glucose or dTDP‐4‐amino‐4,6‐dideoxy‐d‐glucose. Additionally, the kinetic parameters of the enzyme utilizing either UDP‐d‐glucose or dTDP‐d‐glucose were measured and demonstrated that L136 is efficient with both substrates. This is in sharp contrast to the structurally related DesI from Streptomyces venezuelae, whose three‐dimensional architecture was previously reported by this laboratory. As determined in this investigation,DesI shows a profound preference in its catalytic efficiency for the dTDP‐linked sugar substrate. This difference can be explained in part by a hydrophobic patch in DesI that is missing in L136. Notably, the structure of L136 reported here represents the first three‐dimensional model for a virally encoded PLP‐dependent enzyme and thus provides new information on sugar aminotransferases in general.     

Assessment of the stream invertebrate β‐diversity along an elevation gradient using a bidimensional null model analysis

β‐Diversity, commonly defined as the compositional variation among localities that links local diversity (α‐diversity) and regional diversity (γ‐diversity), can arise from two different ecological phenomena, namely the spatial species turnover (i.e., species replacement) and the nestedness of assemblages (i.e., species loss). However, any assessment that does not account for stochasticity in community assembly could be biased and misinform conservation management. In this study, we aimed to provide a better understanding of the overall ecological phenomena underlying stream β‐diversity along elevation gradients and to contribute to the rich debate on null model approaches to identify nonrandom patterns in the distribution of taxa. Based on presence‐absence data of 78 stream invertebrate families from 309 sites located in the Swiss Alpine region, we analyzed the effect size of nonrandom spatial distribution of stream invertebrates on the β‐diversity and its two components (i.e., turnover and nestedness). We used a modeling framework that allows exploring the complete range of existing algorithms used in null model analysis and assessing how distribution patterns vary according to an array of possible ecological assumptions. Overall, the turnover of stream invertebrates and the nestedness of assemblages were significantly lower and higher, respectively, than the ones expected by chance. This pattern increased with elevation, and the consistent trend observed along the altitudinal gradient, even in the most conservative analysis, strengthened our findings. Our study suggests that deterministic distribution of stream invertebrates in the Swiss Alpine region is significantly driven by differential dispersal capacity and environmental stress gradients. As long as the ecological assumptions for constructing the null models and their implications are acknowledged, we believe that they still represent useful tools to measure the effect size of nonrandom spatial distribution of taxa on β‐diversity.     

Up‐regulated SAMD9L modulated by TLR2 and HIF‐1α as a promising biomarker in tuberculosis

The aim of this study was to identify potential biomarkers of TB in blood and determine their function in Mtb‐infected macrophages. First of all, WGCNA was used to analyse 9451 genes with significant changes in TB patients’ whole blood. The 220 interferon‐γ‐related genes were identified, and then 30 key genes were screened using Cytoscape. Then, the AUC values of key genes were calculated to further narrow the gene range. Finally, we identified 9 genes from {"type":"entrez-geo","attrs":{"text":"GSE19444","term_id":"19444"}}GSE19444. ROC analysis showed that SAMD9L, among 9 genes, had a high diagnostic value (AUC = 0.925) and a differential diagnostic value (AUC>0.865). To further narrow down the range of DEGs, the top 10 hub‐connecting genes were screened from monocytes ({"type":"entrez-geo","attrs":{"text":"GSE19443","term_id":"19443"}}GSE19443). Finally, we obtained 4 genes (SAMD9L, GBP1, GBP5 and STAT1) by intersections of genes from monocytes and whole blood. Among them, it was found that the function of SAMD9L was unknown after data review, so this paper studied this gene. Our results showed that SAMD9L is up‐regulated and suppresses cell necrosis, and might be regulated by TLR2 and HIF‐1α during Mtb infection. In addition, miR‐181b‐5p is significantly up‐regulated in the peripheral blood plasma of tuberculosis patients, which has a high diagnostic value (AUC = 0.969).     

Influence of the large‐Z effect during contact between butterfly sister species

Recently diverged butterfly populations in North America have been found to exhibit high levels of divergence on the Z chromosome relative to autosomes, as measured by fixation index, Fst. The pattern of divergence appears to result from accumulation of incompatible alleles, obstructing introgression on the Z chromosome in hybrids (i.e., the large‐Z effect); however, it is unknown whether this mechanism is sufficient to explain the data. Here, we simulate the effects of hybrid incompatibility on interbreeding butterfly populations using a model in which populations accumulate cross‐incompatible alleles in allopatry prior to contact. We compute statistics for introgression and population divergence during contact between model populations and compare our results to those for 15 pairs of butterfly species interbreeding along a suture zone in central Texas. Time scales for allopatry and contact in the model are scaled to glacial and interglacial periods during which real populations evolved in isolation and contact. We find that the data for butterflies are explained well by an otherwise neutral model under slow fusion conditions. In particular, levels of divergence on the Z chromosome increase when interacting clusters of genes are closely linked, consistent with clusters of functionally related genes in butterfly genomes.     

miR‐9‐5p suppresses pro‐fibrogenic transformation of fibroblasts and prevents organ fibrosis by targeting NOX4 and TGFBR2

Uncontrolled extracellular matrix (ECM) production by fibroblasts in response to injury contributes to fibrotic diseases, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation is involved in the pathogenesis of IPF. Transforming growth factor‐β1 (TGF‐β1) stimulates the production of NADPH oxidase 4 (NOX4)‐dependent ROS, promoting lung fibrosis (LF). Dysregulation of microRNAs (miRNAs) has been shown to contribute to LF. To identify miRNAs involved in redox regulation relevant for IPF, we performed arrays in human lung fibroblasts exposed to ROS. miR‐9‐5p was selected as the best candidate and we demonstrate its inhibitory effect on TGF‐β receptor type II (TGFBR2) and NOX4 expression. Increased expression of miR‐9‐5p abrogates TGF‐β1‐dependent myofibroblast phenotypic transformation. In the mouse model of bleomycin‐induced LF, miR‐9‐5p dramatically reduces fibrogenesis and inhibition of miR‐9‐5p and prevents its anti‐fibrotic effect both in vitro and in vivo. In lung specimens from patients with IPF, high levels of miR‐9‐5p are found. In omentum‐derived mesothelial cells (MCs) from patients subjected to peritoneal dialysis (PD), miR‐9‐5p also inhibits mesothelial to myofibroblast transformation. We propose that TGF‐β1 induces miR‐9‐5p expression as a self‐limiting homeostatic response.     

Construction of miRNA‐lncRNA‐mRNA co‐expression network affecting EMT‐mediated cisplatin resistance in ovarian cancer

Platinum resistance is one of the major concerns in ovarian cancer treatment. Recent evidence shows the critical role of epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT) in this resistance. Epithelial‐like ovarian cancer cells show decreased sensitivity to cisplatin after cisplatin treatment. Our study prospected the association between epithelial phenotype and response to cisplatin in ovarian cancer. Microarray dataset {"type":"entrez-geo","attrs":{"text":"GSE47856","term_id":"47856"}}GSE47856 was acquired from the GEO database. After identifying differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between epithelial‐like and mesenchymal‐like cells, the module identification analysis was performed using weighted gene co‐expression network analysis (WGCNA). The gene ontology (GO) and pathway analyses of the most considerable modules were performed. The protein–protein interaction network was also constructed. The hub genes were specified using Cytoscape plugins MCODE and cytoHubba, followed by the survival analysis and data validation. Finally, the co‐expression of miRNA‐lncRNA‐TF with the hub genes was reconstructed. The co‐expression network analysis suggests 20 modules relating to the Epithelial phenotype. The antiquewhite4, brown and darkmagenta modules are the most significant non‐preserved modules in the Epithelial phenotype and contain the most differentially expressed genes. GO, and KEGG pathway enrichment analyses on these modules divulge that these genes were primarily enriched in the focal adhesion, DNA replication pathways and stress response processes. ROC curve and overall survival rate analysis show that the co‐expression pattern of the brown module''s hub genes could be a potential prognostic biomarker for ovarian cancer cisplatin resistance.     

Glucagon signalling in the dorsal vagal complex is sufficient and necessary for high‐protein feeding to regulate glucose homeostasis in vivo

High‐protein feeding acutely lowers postprandial glucose concentration compared to low‐protein feeding, despite a dichotomous rise of circulating glucagon levels. The physiological role of this glucagon rise has been largely overlooked. We here first report that glucagon signalling in the dorsal vagal complex (DVC) of the brain is sufficient to lower glucose production by activating a Gcgr–PKA–ERK–K_ATP channel signalling cascade in the DVC of rats in vivo. We further demonstrate that direct blockade of DVC Gcgr signalling negates the acute ability of high‐ vs. low‐protein feeding to reduce plasma glucose concentration, indicating that the elevated circulating glucagon during high‐protein feeding acts in the brain to lower plasma glucose levels. These data revise the physiological role of glucagon and argue that brain glucagon signalling contributes to glucose homeostasis during dietary protein intake.     

Effects of traditional harvest and burning on common camas (Camassia quamash) abundance in Northern Idaho: The potential for traditional resource management in a protected area wetland

The bulbs of common camas (Camassia quamash) were a staple food of Indigenous Peoples of western North America for millennia. Camas harvesting site productivity was encouraged through intense management. Common camas is considered a facultative wetland species, and populations have declined due to contemporary wetland drainage and land conversion. Conservation of existing habitat, as well as restoration of degraded systems, is necessary. Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and resource management (TRM) are often promoted as viable modes of contemporary resource management but are rarely tested or implemented. We designed a controlled experiment, informed by a born‐in‐the‐tradition specialist, to evaluate the response of common camas populations to traditional bulb harvest, burning, and a combination of harvest and burning. We recorded camas plant counts of three life stage classes of camas plants (single‐leaf seedling, multiple‐leaf adult, and flowering adult) over the course of 6 years in arrays of plots and subjected to treatments or left undisturbed as control. Harvesting removed plants (>800 bulbs) and reduced aboveground counts of camas densities (X¯ ~ 50% of control, p < .05). Burning contributed to a reduction in single‐leaf plants but had an overall positive effect (X¯ ~ 150% of control, p < .05) on adult camas and flowering plant abundance, and ameliorated the digging impacts. Treatment impacts tapered over the course of the study, and results indicate that a sustainable harvesting return interval of approximately 5 years may be possible when combined with fire to reduce litter and competition from pasture grasses and to accelerate the recovery of camas. Our findings support the hypotheses proposed by traditional knowledge specialists and ethnobotanists that digging and burning reduce intra‐ and interspecific competition and stimulate the growth of unharvested adult plants. More generally, our study supports the integration of traditional ecological knowledge into the evidence base available for protected area wetland prairie management.     

SARS‐CoV‐2 structural coverage map reveals viral protein assembly,mimicry, and hijacking mechanisms

We modeled 3D structures of all SARS‐CoV‐2 proteins, generating 2,060 models that span 69% of the viral proteome and provide details not available elsewhere. We found that ˜6% of the proteome mimicked human proteins, while ˜7% was implicated in hijacking mechanisms that reverse post‐translational modifications, block host translation, and disable host defenses; a further ˜29% self‐assembled into heteromeric states that provided insight into how the viral replication and translation complex forms. To make these 3D models more accessible, we devised a structural coverage map, a novel visualization method to show what is—and is not—known about the 3D structure of the viral proteome. We integrated the coverage map into an accompanying online resource (https://aquaria.ws/covid) that can be used to find and explore models corresponding to the 79 structural states identified in this work. The resulting Aquaria‐COVID resource helps scientists use emerging structural data to understand the mechanisms underlying coronavirus infection and draws attention to the 31% of the viral proteome that remains structurally unknown or dark.