我国人口增长的总和生育率模型及人口预警

运用数学公式推导人类种群在\"一夫一妻\"基本制度下的总和生育率的\"世纪更替\"水平,或实现人口零增长的参数计算公式为 TFR=1+S/100(S/100为性别比,当男女性别比为1 ∶ 1时TFR=2.0.当性别比因女少而严重失调时, TFR>2.0).在对我国人口增长及总和生育率的变化进行分析研究后发现:实行了30a的计划生育政策取得巨大成就,奇迹般地将我国总和生育率从6.0左右迅速降下来.但是,近年来的总和生育率呈急剧下降趋势,目前全国TFR指标在1.8以下,有可能已经接近1.1.根据北京、上海的统计数据及人口普查分析,这两个地区的TFR已经小于1.0.根据建立的人口增长总和生育率(TFR)模型,按照目前提倡的TFR=1的指标,继续严格执行下去,300年内我国的人口将从现在的13亿急剧下降到398万人.     

"遗传学进步与人口健康高峰论坛"在昆明召开

为了交流人类与医学遗传学领域的新成果、新进展,全国"遗传学进步与人口健康高峰论坛"于2007年11月14-17日在昆明"云安会都"召开,云南省科协有关领导在开幕式上发表了热情洋溢的讲话.曾溢滔、张亚平、贺林、杨焕明等将近400名医学遗传学领域的专家学者参加了会议.开幕式上,还进行了"昆明-北京-哈尔滨'中国不同民族永生细胞库'揭牌仪式".     

"中国老龄人口营养健康状况项目"简介及阶段性成果

近20年来,随着我国经济的快速发展和膳食结构的不断西化,肥胖、2型糖尿病和心脑血管疾病等一些与营养、代谢和生活方式密切相关的慢性代谢性疾病在我国的发病率急剧上升,成为我国居民健康的主要威胁和主要致死性、致残性疾病。世界卫生组织2005年一份控制慢性疾病的报告预计,如果不采取有效措施,在未来10年中仅心脏病、中风和糖尿病就将给中国带来至少5500亿美元的经济损失。此外,我国人口老龄化发展迅速,已成为世界上目前唯一的老年人口超过1亿的国家。由于老龄化本身与各种慢性疾病关系密切,发现危害老年人健康的主要危险因素,对预防疾病和促进老年人的健康至关重要。     

人口发展与生物多样性

地球上现有生物约２００万种,历史上曾达到２５００万种,这种生物的多样性是生命发展的基本特征之一。从进化的角度来看,地球上生物发展的总趋势是种类由少到多,由单一环境到适应多种多样的环境;从遗传的角度来看,生物多样性为生命提供了一个无比庞大基因库,使生物在漫长的进化历程中,在遗传与变异的对立统一运动中始终保持旺盛的活力,不仅使生物适应环境的能力趋于完善,且使生物具有抵抗环境骤变的巨大潜能;从生态系统的角度来看,生物多样性是生态系统稳定的基本保证。就人的自然属性来说,人类是多样性生物大家庭中的一员,其…     

中国新药研究开发现状

随着国民经济的持续发展和生活水平的不断提高,健康状况与生命质量已经成为我国新时期社会发展的重大课题。人口老龄化和农村医药市场的拓展为生物医药产业提供了前所未有的成长空间。经过多年的不懈努力,我国自主的创新药物研究体系已经初步形成,以提升国际竞争力为导向,医药产业正在实现由仿制为主向创新为主的历史性转变。     

岷江上游人口特征

通过提取岷江上游5县1986～2003年统计年鉴的人口和经济数据,以研究区行政区划图（1：250000）为地理信息基础数据,在ArcGIS平台上,建立人口空间数据库,采用传统人口统计和GIS空间分析相结合的方法。对岷江上游5县的人口空间分布特征与变化以及影响其变化的因索进行了研究。结果表明。研究区是以藏族、羌族、回族等少数民族为主的聚居区,其人口总量规模小、人口增长缓慢、人口密度偏小;人口的空间结构状况趋于不均衡化,人口再分布活力明显下降;人口重心从1950～2003年由北到南移动了6．30km。反映出研究区经济发展良好的区域在南部（即汶川县）方向;影响人口分布的主要因素有河流、道路、海拔、土地的利用方式和经济吸引力等。     

科学运动，远离痴呆

痴呆是由各种原因造成人的智能全面减退的临床综合征,因其带来的巨大社会负担已成为一个重要的公共卫生问题。在发达国家,痴呆是继心脏病、癌症、中风后的第4位死因。随着世界人口的日益老龄化,老年期痴呆发病率逐年增高,逐渐成为人类健康的一大威胁,已成为我国不可忽视的卫生和社会问题。老年期痴呆是一个泛指的概念,包括了几种不同原因所致的痴呆类型,其中最常见的是阿尔茨海默病,也就是我们通常所指的老年性痴呆;其次为血管性痴呆。     

人口增长与渔业发展对武汉东湖水质的影响

湖泊的水质主要受两方面的影响:一是湖泊沿岸(汇水区域)的社会经济发展,二是湖泊中的渔业生产.在沿岸社会经济指标中,人口这一指标具有综合性和可比性,因为经济发展,特别是在中国这样的国家,往往是与人口增长紧密相联的,而人口增长所造成的住房和道路需求、用水与耗电增长、生活污水大量排放,以及对食品特别是鱼产品的更多需求等等都给湖泊的环境质量带来直接和间接的影响.此外,鉴于人口指标较之其他社会经济指标的易获得性,本文研究以人口增长为代表的湖泊外部社会经济发展指标以及渔业发展对东湖环境质量的影响.     

L2[o,r2]上的人口算子

用LZ〔0,:。〕表示通常意义下的Hilbert空间.在空间L“〔0,1。〕中,人口发展算子A“2’定义如下:定义域。‘A,={。‘·,卜‘·,dP(了) dr一“(r)p(,)〔LZ〔o,:,〕;p(o)_。f犷,,_,.,、:,_、*,_、J_1、*‘_、二。,,、‘,*、‘_、__dp(:)=夕l无(r)h(了)户(,)d了卜对p(1)〔D(A),(AP)(7)=一丝书井三 rJ九一’一“一’J‘一‘一’dT一“(r)P(犷),其中,1。为社会中人能活到的最大年龄,〔;,,12〕为妇女育龄区间,h(1)表示生育模式,k(下)表示女性比例函数,那(犷)表示相对死亡率,口>o为妇女总和生育率.拼(r),k(了),h(了)满足下面条件(I).召(,),…     

我国二级及以上医疗机构开展公共卫生工作现况分析

目的 对二级以上医疗机构疾病预防控制等公共卫生工作现况进行评估。方法 对全国10个省163家医院进行二级以上医疗机构公共卫生工作开展基本情况调查和人员基本情况调查的问卷调查;对全国34个省、自治区、直辖市和新疆生产建设兵团进行函调以及对浙江、河南、辽宁和甘肃4个省进行实地调研。结果（1）医疗机构应承担的公共卫生职能与落实情况相差甚远。（2）医疗机构从事公共卫生工作积极性不高。（3）医疗机构在公共卫生工作中接受多个部门管理,但在工作中缺乏协调。结论（1）弥合临床医疗服务体系与公共卫生体系的割裂状态。（2）增强医疗机构从事公共卫生工作积极性。（3）加强督察考核,促进公共卫生工作的落实。     

“同一健康”理念下的兽医微生物学研究

近年来突发疫情的广泛流行给人类生活、社会稳定和经济发展带来了前所未有的挑战,人兽共患病的防控不约而同成为世界性焦点。兽医微生物学对公共卫生和人类健康的重要作用受到高度重视,为集中展现人兽共患病原细菌(病)领域的最新研究和应用成果,《微生物学通报》组织出版了“人兽共患病原菌主题刊”,栏目包括综述和研究报告。综述汇集了主要人兽共患病原菌流行现状、效应分子调控、诊断标识发掘及新型疫苗抗原研究的前沿进展和新成果;研究报告涵盖了病原诊断技术研发、细胞培养与鉴定、益生菌分离与鉴定、噬菌体分离与鉴定、分子功能探究、感染与免疫等。希望本期主题刊为我国兽医微生物学科发展与进步提供交流平台,更好地推动人兽共患病防控新技术、新理论的探索。     

水禽流感的流行特点及预防控制

禽流感已有100多年的历史,遍布世界许多国家和地区,不仅给养禽业造成了巨大的经济损失,而且已可直接传染给人,威胁人类公共卫生安全。众所周知,流感病毒（AIV）最复杂的生态系统在鸭、鹅等水禽,而水禽不仅是AIV的巨大贮存库和传染源,其本身也对AIV高度易感,可自然感染HPAIV,发病并死亡。随着禽流感威胁的不断升级,水禽流感的研究也不断深入。本文从水禽流感的流行病学和公共卫生学意义,以及在传播过程中的作用等方面作扼要综述,并对水禽流感的预防和控制提出一些建议。     

二级及以上公立医疗机构公共卫生相关科室设置分析

目的 摸底二级以上医疗机构公共卫生工作的组织方式,并对其设置公共卫生职能科室的必要性进行讨论。方法 检索北大法律信息数据库查找相关政府文件,梳理医疗机构设置公共卫生相关科室的要求。对发文要求设立公共卫生科室的省份和对比省份的163家医疗机构进行问卷调查。结果 原卫生部要求500张床位以上的医疗机构设立预防保健科,2003年以后部分省份发文要求二级以上医疗机构设立疾病预防控制或公共卫生科。72.5%的发文地区医疗机构和39.8%的未发文地区医疗机构设立了公共卫生相关科室,二级以上公立医疗机构设置公共卫生科室对公共卫生职责的承担有促进作用。结论 二级以上医疗机构应当设置公共卫生职能科室,以促进公共卫生职责的落实。     

Integrated control of Chagas disease for its elimination as public health problem - A Review

Chagas disease or American trypanosomiasis is, together with geohelminths, the neglected disease that causes more loss of years of healthy life due to disability in Latin America. Chagas disease, as determined by the factors and determinants, shows that different contexts require different actions, preventing new cases or reducing the burden of disease. Control strategies must combine two general courses of action including prevention of transmission to prevent the occurrence of new cases (these measures are cost effective), as well as opportune diagnosis and treatment of infected individuals in order to prevent the clinical evolution of the disease and to allow them to recuperate their health. All actions should be implemented as fully as possible and with an integrated way, to maximise the impact. Chagas disease cannot be eradicated due because of the demonstrated existence of infected wild triatomines in permanent contact with domestic cycles and it contributes to the occurrence of at least few new cases. However, it is possible to interrupt the transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in a large territory and to eliminate Chagas disease as a public health problem with a dramatic reduction of burden of the disease.     

The social determinants of mental health and disorder: evidence,prevention and recommendations

People exposed to more unfavourable social circumstances are more vulnerable to poor mental health over their life course, in ways that are often determined by structural factors which generate and perpetuate intergenerational cycles of disadvantage and poor health. Addressing these challenges is an imperative matter of social justice. In this paper we provide a roadmap to address the social determinants that cause mental ill health. Relying as far as possible on high-quality evidence, we first map out the literature that supports a causal link between social determinants and later mental health outcomes. Given the breadth of this topic, we focus on the most pervasive social determinants across the life course, and those that are common across major mental disorders. We draw primarily on the available evidence from the Global North, acknowledging that other global contexts will face both similar and unique sets of social determinants that will require equitable attention. Much of our evidence focuses on mental health in groups who are marginalized, and thus often exposed to a multitude of intersecting social risk factors. These groups include refugees, asylum seekers and displaced persons, as well as ethnoracial minoritized groups; lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (LGBTQ+) groups; and those living in poverty. We then introduce a preventive framework for conceptualizing the link between social determinants and mental health and disorder, which can guide much needed primary prevention strategies capable of reducing inequalities and improving population mental health. Following this, we provide a review of the evidence concerning candidate preventive strategies to intervene on social determinants of mental health. These interventions fall broadly within the scope of universal, selected and indicated primary prevention strategies, but we also briefly review important secondary and tertiary strategies to promote recovery in those with existing mental disorders. Finally, we provide seven key recommendations, framed around social justice, which constitute a roadmap for action in research, policy and public health. Adoption of these recommendations would provide an opportunity to advance efforts to intervene on modifiable social determinants that affect population mental health.     

Barriers and errors in the implementation of community psychiatry in Slovenia

Background Slovenian psychiatry is predominantly hospital based. A programme for the development of general community psychiatric services was proposed to improve access to and quality and comprehensiveness of psychiatric care according to the modern standards of delivery of psychiatric services.Aim The aim of the paper is to present the programme for developing community services that was proposed to the Slovenian government, and to describe the barriers to its implementation that were encountered, as well as the errors made by the programme authors, that contributed to the rejection of the programme last year.Conclusions There are historical, political, professional and service organisation characteristics that impede the development of community psychiatry in Slovenia. These are to be addressed through coordinated action involving primary care professionals, non-government organisations with service users and carers, the Health Insurance Agency and politicians involved in the planning of health services.     

Long-term effects of birth weight and breastfeeding duration on inflammation in early adulthood

Chronic inflammation is a potentially important physiological mechanism linking early life environments and health in adulthood. Elevated concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP)—a key biomarker of inflammation—predict increased cardiovascular and metabolic disease risk in adulthood, but the developmental factors that shape the regulation of inflammation are not known. We investigated birth weight and breastfeeding duration in infancy as predictors of CRP in young adulthood in a large representative cohort study (n = 6951). Birth weight was significantly associated with CRP in young adulthood, with a negative association for birth weights 2.8 kg and higher. Compared with individuals not breastfed, CRP concentrations were 20.1%, 26.7%, 29.6% and 29.8% lower among individuals breastfed for less than three months, three to six months, 6–12 months and greater than 12 months, respectively. In sibling comparison models, higher birth weight was associated with lower CRP for birth weights above 2.5 kg, and breastfeeding greater than or equal to three months was significantly associated with lower CRP. Efforts to promote breastfeeding and improve birth outcomes may have clinically relevant effects on reducing chronic inflammation and lowering risk for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases in adulthood.     

The benefits of silver in hygiene, personal care and healthcare

Silver has been used for centuries as an antimicrobial agent to reduce bioburden and prevent infection. Its usage diminished when antibiotics were introduced but remained one of the most popular agents for wound infections, especially in burned patients. Incorporation of silver into a range of hygiene and healthcare applications has increased, and this has raised concerns over the development of silver resistance, toxicity, methods of testing products and evidence of efficacy. The published evidence for resistance and toxicity is limited and associated with frequent and high levels of silver used. Increasing evidence of improved antimicrobial activity of nanoparticles of silver and possible dual immunomodulatory effects are exciting. This may lead to further product development as potential alternative preservatives as some currently available preservatives have an increasing incidence of allergic reactions. Acknowledging the role of the carrier is important, and as silver is active when in solution, opens a window of opportunity in personal hygiene area. This is important in an age when multiple antibiotic–resistant bacteria are becoming prevalent.