Hierarchical regulation of pelagic invertebrates in lakes of the northern Great Plains: a novel model for interdecadal effects of future climate change on lakes

Endorheic lakes of the northern Great Plains encompass a wide range of environmental parameters (e.g., salinity, pH, DOC, Ca, nutrients, depth) that vary 1000‐fold among sites and through the past 2000 years due to variation in basin hydrology and evaporative forcing. However, while many environmental parameters are known to individually influence zooplankton diversity and taxonomic composition, relatively little is known of the hierarchical relationships among potential controls or of how regulatory mechanisms may change in response to climate variation on diverse scales. To address these issues, we surveyed 70 lakes within a 100 000 km² prairie region to simulate the magnitude of environmental change expected to occur over 100–1000 years and to quantify the unique and interactive effects of diverse environmental parameters in regulating pelagic invertebrate community structure at that scale. Multivariate analyses showed that salinity was the principal correlate of changes in invertebrate composition among lakes, with a sequential loss of taxa between salinities of 4 and 50 g total dissolved solids L^?1 until one to two species predominated in highly saline systems. In contrast, changes in the concentrations of Ca²⁺ and other mineral nutrients exerted secondary controls of invertebrate assemblages independent of salinity, whereas lake depth provided a tertiary regulatory mechanism structuring species composition. In contrast to these large‐scale hierarchical patterns, seasonal surveys (May, July, September) of a subset of 21 lakes in each of 2003–2005 revealed that annual meteorological variation had no measurable effect on pelagic invertebrates, despite large differences in temperature, precipitation, and evaporation arising from regional droughts. Together these findings show that pelagic invertebrate communities in saline lakes are resilient to interannual variability in climate, but suggest that lakes of the northern Great Plains may provide a sensitive model to forecast centennial effects of future climate change.     

Survival of white-tailed deer fawns in the grasslands of the northern Great Plains

Environmental factors, such as forest characteristics, have been linked to fawn survival in eastern and southern white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations. In the Great Plains, less is known about how intrinsic and habitat factors influence fawn survival. During 2007–2009, we captured and radiocollared 81 fawns in north-central South Dakota and recorded 23 mortalities, of which 18 died before 1 September. Predation accounted for 52.2% of mortality; remaining mortality included human (hunting, vehicle, and farm accident; 26.1%) and hypothermia (21.7%). Coyotes (Canis latrans) accounted for 83.3% of predation on fawns. We used known-fate analysis in Program MARK to estimate summer (15 May–31 Aug) survival rates and investigated the influence of intrinsic and habitat variables on survival. We developed 2 a priori model sets, including intrinsic variables and a test of annual variation in survival (model set 1) and habitat variables (model set 2). Model set 1 indicated that summer survival varied among years (2007–2009); annual survival rates were 0.94 (SE = 0.06, n = 22), 0.78 (SE = 0.09, n = 27), and 0.54 (SE = 0.10, n = 32), respectively. Model set 2 indicated that survival was further influenced by patch density of cover habitats (Conservation Reserve Program [CRP]-grasslands, forested cover, and wetlands). Mean CRP-grassland and wetland patch density (no. patches/100 ha) were greater (P < 0.001) in home-range areas of surviving fawns ( = 1.81, SE = 0.10, n = 63; = 1.75, SE = 0.14, n = 63, respectively) than in home-range areas of fawns that died ( = 0.16, SE = 0.04, n = 18; = 1.28, SE = 0.10, n = 18, respectively). Mean forested cover patch density was less (P < 0.001) in home-range areas of surviving fawns ( = 0.77, SE = 0.10, n = 63) than in home-range areas of fawns that died ( = 1.49, SE = 0.21, n = 18). Our results indicate that management activities should focus on CRP-grassland and wetland habitats in order to maintain or improve fawn survival in the northern Great Plains, rather than forested cover composed primarily of tree plantings and shelterbelts. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Ecological processes: A key element in strategies for nature conservation

Summary A common approach to nature conservation is to identify and protect natural ‘assets’ such as ecosystems and threatened species. While such actions are essential, protection of assets will not be effective unless the ecological processes that sustain them are maintained. Here, we consider the role of ecological processes and the complementary perspective for conservation arising from an emphasis on process. Many kinds of ecological processes sustain biodiversity: including climatic processes, primary productivity, hydrological processes, formation of biophysical habitats, interactions between species, movements of organisms and natural disturbance regimes. Anthropogenic threats to conservation exert their influence by modifying or disrupting these processes. Such threats extend across tenures, they frequently occur offsite, they commonly induce non‐linear responses, changes may be irreversible and the full consequences may not be experienced for lengthy periods. While many managers acknowledge these considerations in principle, there is much scope for greater recognition of ecological processes in nature conservation and greater emphasis on long time‐frames and large spatial scales in conservation planning. Practical measures that promote ecological processes include: monitoring to determine the trajectory and rate of processes; incorporating surrogates for processes in conservation and restoration projects; specific interventions to manipulate and restore processes; and planning for the ecological future before options are foreclosed. The long‐term conservation of biodiversity and the well‐being of human society depend upon both the protection of natural assets and maintaining the integrity of the ecological processes that sustain them.     

Plant community responses to bison reintroduction on the Northern Great Plains,United States: a test of the keystone species concept

Keystone species restoration, or the restoration of species whose effect on an ecosystem is much greater than their abundance would suggest, is a central justification for many wildlife reintroduction projects globally. Following restoration, plains bison (Bison bison L.) have been identified as a keystone species in the tallgrass prairie ecoregion, but we know of no research to document similar effects in the mixed‐grass prairie where restoration efforts are ongoing. This study addresses whether Northern Great Plains (NGP) mixed‐grass prairie plant communities exhibit traits consistent with four central keystone effects documented for bison in the tallgrass prairie. We collected species composition, diversity, abundance, bare ground cover, and plant height data in three treatments: where livestock (Bos taurus L.) continuously grazed, livestock were removed for 10 years, and bison have been introduced and resident for 10 years. We observed mixed support for bison acting as keystone species in this system. Supporting the keystone role of bison, we observed higher species richness and compositional heterogeneity (β‐diversity) in the bison treatment than either the livestock retention or livestock removal treatments. However, we observed comparable forb, bare ground, and plant height heterogeneity between bison‐restored sites and sites where livestock were retained, contradicting reported keystone effects in other systems. Our results suggest that after 10 years of being restored, bison partially fulfill their role as a keystone species in the mixed‐grass prairie, and we encourage continued long‐term data collection to evaluate their influence in the NGP.     

Spatial ecology of white-tailed deer fawns in the northern Great Plains: Implications of loss of conservation reserve program grasslands

Few studies have evaluated how wildlife, and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in particular, respond to Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands. We conducted a 3-year study (2007–2009) to determine the influence of CRP on fawn ecology during a time of declining CRP enrollment. We captured and radiocollared 81 fawn white-tailed deer during 15 May to 15 June 2007–2009 in north-central South Dakota, collected 6,505 locations, and documented 70 summer home ranges. Mean summer home ranges increased temporally during 2007–2009 (P < 0.001) and corresponded to a 41% loss of CRP grasslands in the area (2.3% loss in land cover and approx. 21% loss in cover habitat in the study area) over the duration of the study. Additionally, mean movement between daily locations increased (P < 0.001) from 2007 to 2009. Analysis of covariance models indicated that change in CRP influenced home-range size, and change in CRP and wheat influenced daily movement. Smaller home ranges and reduced movements were associated with greater quantity of CRP available to fawns, and increased movements were associated with more acreage of wheat available to fawns. Fawns shifted resource selection during the summer at a mean age ranging from 48.8 days to 58.6 days, and this shift was associated with height of corn (83–87 cm). During early summer, fawns consistently selected for CRP; selection of wheat progressed temporally from avoidance in 2007 to selection in 2009. During late summer, fawns consistently selected for corn habitat and used CRP at least in proportion to its availability. Reduction in CRP-grasslands seemed to increase fawn home-range size and daily movements and, influenced change in resource selection to wheat. Current legislation mandates continued decrease in CRP enrollment and concomitant increase in the planting of corn for ethanol production. Management of habitat throughout the grasslands of the Northern Great Plains that maximizes cover habitats would provide neonates with adequate cover for protection from predators. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Emissions of methane from northern peatlands: a review of management impacts and implications for future management options

Northern peatlands constitute a significant source of atmospheric methane (CH₄). However, management of undisturbed peatlands, as well as the restoration of disturbed peatlands, will alter the exchange of CH₄ with the atmosphere. The aim of this systematic review and meta‐analysis was to collate and analyze published studies to improve our understanding of the factors that control CH₄ emissions and the impacts of management on the gas flux from northern (latitude 40° to 70°N) peatlands. The analysis includes a total of 87 studies reporting measurements of CH₄ emissions taken at 186 sites covering different countries, peatland types, and management systems. Results show that CH₄ emissions from natural northern peatlands are highly variable with a 95% CI of 7.6–15.7 g C m^?2 year^?1 for the mean and 3.3–6.3 g C m^?2 year^?1 for the median. The overall annual average (mean ± SD) is 12 ± 21 g C m^?2 year^?1 with the highest emissions from fen ecosystems. Methane emissions from natural peatlands are mainly controlled by water table (WT) depth, plant community composition, and soil pH. Although mean annual air temperature is not a good predictor of CH₄ emissions by itself, the interaction between temperature, plant community cover, WT depth, and soil pH is important. According to short‐term forecasts of climate change, these complex interactions will be the main determinant of CH₄ emissions from northern peatlands. Drainage significantly (p < .05) reduces CH₄ emissions to the atmosphere, on average by 84%. Restoration of drained peatlands by rewetting or vegetation/rewetting increases CH₄ emissions on average by 46% compared to the original premanagement CH₄ fluxes. However, to fully evaluate the net effect of management practice on the greenhouse gas balance from high latitude peatlands, both net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and carbon exports need to be considered.     

The role of dominant prairie species ecotypes on plant diversity patterns of restored grasslands across a rainfall gradient in the US Great Plains

Questions

A robust ecosystem requires a functionally heterogeneous community of organisms with ecological traits that permit broad resource partitioning. Understanding community diversity patterns can help investigate drivers of community assembly and assess restoration success. Do biodiversity patterns differ among grassland communities sown with different ecotypes of dominant species during restoration along a rainfall gradient in the tallgrass prairie of the central US Great Plains?

Location

Four field sites across a rainfall gradient within the North American Great Plains: Colby, Kansas (39°23′17.8″N, 101°04′57.4″W), Hays, Kansas (38°51′13.2″N, 99°19′08.6″W), Manhattan, Kansas (39°08′22.3″N, 96°38′23.3″W), and Carbondale, Illinois (IL, 37°41′47.0″N, 89°14′19.2″W).

Methods

We applied linear mixed models to assess the effect of dominant species ecotype, year, and location on grassland taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity.

Results

The non-local grass ecotype (compared to the local ecotype) promoted species richness. In contrast, the effect of the dominant species ecotype on phylogenetic or functional diversity was site-specific over the 10-year restoration. Richness decreased across the rainfall gradient from dry to moist sites, and the wettest site had the highest phylogenetic and functional diversity.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that abiotic filtering by rainfall is a key assembly mechanism that could predict grassland changes in biodiversity in the early restoration phases. Given the community response across the tallgrass prairie, restoration practitioners should consider the impact of regional sources of dominant species used in restoration when biodiversity is a restoration goal. It is recommended for future grassland restoration to detect gaps and limitations in evolutionary and trait structure that will reveal which diversity components to evaluate.     

Below-ground bud banks increase along a precipitation gradient of the North American Great Plains: a test of the meristem limitation hypothesis

In perennial grasslands, the below-ground population of meristems (bud bank) plays a fundamental role in plant population dynamics. Here, we tested the 'meristem limitation hypothesis' prediction - that bud banks increase along an increasing precipitation/productivity gradient in North American grasslands - and assessed the seasonal dynamics of bud banks. We sampled bud and stem populations quarterly at six sites across a 1100 km gradient in central North America. Bud banks increased with average annual precipitation, which explained 80% of the variability between the sites. In addition, seasonal changes in grass bud banks were surprisingly similar across a 2.5-fold range in precipitation and a 4-fold range of productivity: densities peaked in March, decreased in June and increased slightly in September. Increasing meristem limitation may constrain vegetation responses to inter-annual changes in resources. An important consequence of this is that biomes with large bud banks may be the most responsive to environmental change. If meristem limitation represents an important constraint on productivity responses to environmental variability, then bud banks must be considered in developing predictive models for grassland responses to environmental change.     

燕麦对松嫩草地三种主要盐分胁迫的生理适应策略

为明确燕麦幼苗对松嫩盐碱草地3种主要盐分Na Cl、Na HCO_3和Na_2CO_3的适应机制,设定不同浓度梯度(48—144 mmol/L)的胁迫处理液,测定燕麦幼苗的生长与生理指标变化。结果表明,尽管试验设定的Na Cl浓度并不影响幼苗的存活率,但在各组胁迫处理下,随着浓度的增加,燕麦幼苗的分蘖数、植株高度、茎叶与根系的生物量均呈下降趋势,下降幅度为Na_2CO_3Na HCO_3Na Cl。另外,与Na Cl胁迫相比,Na_2CO_3与Na HCO_3胁迫下茎叶与根中积累了更多的有毒Na~+,同时K~+下降幅度也更大,并且根系中含有更高的Na~+与更低的K~+以及更高的Na~+/K~+。在Na Cl胁迫下,燕麦幼苗积累大量的无机Cl~-和脯氨酸来维持细胞内的渗透与离子平衡,而Na HCO_3与Na_2CO_3胁迫造成了燕麦幼苗体内阴离子的亏缺,此时幼苗主要通过积累大量的有机酸和更多的脯氨酸来维持渗透与离子平衡。上述结果表明,碱性盐Na_2CO_3与Na HCO_3对植物的胁迫伤害程度大于中性盐Na Cl,并且Na_2CO_3的毒害效应最强,而燕麦幼苗对不同的盐分胁迫伤害也有会产生不同的生理适应策略。     

Assessment of interaction between sheep and poorly palatable grass: a key tool for grassland management and restoration

Invasion of poorly palatable grasses due to abandonment or improper grazing management decreases pastures feeding value and biodiversity. With the aim to control their spread, we assessed the relationship between sheep foraging behavior and changes in aboveground phytomass, leaf traits, and chemical features of the tall grass Brachypodium rupestre and evaluated the effects of a B. rupestre-based diet on epithelium keratinization of rumen. Our results demonstrated that sheep became less selective throughout the experimental trials and B. rupestre decreased its aboveground phytomass. Some leaf traits showed significant changes (LDMC, LA, and ADL were higher in ungrazed areas; leaf nitrogen content was higher in the grazed ones). In addition, we detected an increase of the degree of epithelium keratinization of sheep. Thus high grazing pressure can be used to control the spread of B. rupestre, but negative effects on animal welfare due to the increase of rumen keratinization might be expected.     

Satellite remote sensing of grasslands: from observation to management

Aims Grasslands are the world's most extensive terrestrial ecosystem, and are a major feed source for livestock. Meeting increasing demand for meat and other dairy products in a sustainable manner is a big challenge. At a field scale, Global Positioning System and ground-based sensor technologies provide promising tools for grassland and herd management with high precision. With the growth in availability of spaceborne remote sensing data, it is therefore important to revisit the relevant methods and applications that can exploit this imagery. In this article, we have reviewed the (i) current status of grassland monitoring/observation methods and applications based on satellite remote sensing data, (ii) the technological and methodological developments to retrieve different grassland biophysical parameters and management characteristics (i.e. degradation, grazing intensity) and (iii) identified the key remaining challenges and some new upcoming trends for future development.Important findings The retrieval of grassland biophysical parameters have evolved in recent years from classical regression analysis to more complex, efficient and robust modeling approaches, driven by satellite data, and are likely to continue to be the most robust method for deriving grassland information, however these require more high quality calibration and validation data. We found that the hypertemporal satellite data are widely used for time series generation, and particularly to overcome cloud contamination issues, but the current low spatial resolution of these instruments precludes their use for field-scale application in many countries. This trend may change with the current rise in launch of satellite constellations, such as RapidEye, Sentinel-2 and even the microsatellites such as those operated by Skybox Imaging. Microwave imagery has not been widely used for grassland applications, and a better understanding of the backscatter behaviour from different phenological stages is needed for more reliable products in cloudy regions. The development of hyperspectral satellite instrumentation and analytical methods will help for more detailed discrimination of habitat types, and the development of tools for greater end-user operation.     

Integrated management for sustainable cropping systems: Looking beyond the greenhouse balance at the field scale

Cover crops (CC) promote the accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC), which provides multiple benefits to agro‐ecosystems. However, additional nitrogen (N) inputs into the soil could offset the CO₂ mitigation potential due to increasing N₂O emissions. Integrated management approaches use organic and synthetic fertilizers to maximize yields while minimizing impacts by crop sequencing adapted to local conditions. The goal of this work was to test whether integrated management, centered on CC adoption, has the potential to maximize SOC stocks without increasing the soil greenhouse gas (GHG) net flux and other agro‐environmental impacts such as nitrate leaching. To this purpose, we ran the DayCent bio‐geochemistry model on 8,554 soil sampling locations across the European Union. We found that soil N₂O emissions could be limited with simple crop sequencing rules, such as switching from leguminous to grass CC when the GHG flux was positive (source). Additional reductions of synthetic fertilizers applications are possible through better accounting for N available in green manures and from mineralization of soil reservoirs while maintaining cash crop yields. Therefore, our results suggest that a CC integrated management approach can maximize the agro‐environmental performance of cropping systems while reducing environmental trade‐offs.     

Backcasting the decline of a vulnerable Great Plains reproductive ecotype: identifying threats and conservation priorities

Conservation efforts for threatened or endangered species are challenging because the multi‐scale factors that relate to their decline or inhibit their recovery are often unknown. To further exacerbate matters, the perceptions associated with the mechanisms of species decline are often viewed myopically rather than across the entire species range. We used over 80 years of fish presence data collected from the Great Plains and associated ecoregions of the United States, to investigate the relative influence of changing environmental factors on the historic and current truncated distributions of the Arkansas River shiner Notropis girardi. Arkansas River shiner represent a threatened reproductive ecotype considered especially well adapted to the harsh environmental extremes of the Great Plains. Historic (n = 163 records) and current (n = 47 records) species distribution models were constructed using a vector‐based approach in MaxEnt by splitting the available data at a time when Arkansas River shiner dramatically declined. Discharge and stream order were significant predictors in both models; however, the shape of the relationship between the predictors and species presence varied between time periods. Drift distance (river fragment length available for ichthyoplankton downstream drift before meeting a barrier) was a more important predictor in the current model and indicated river segments 375–780 km had the highest probability of species presence. Performance for the historic and current models was high (area under the curve; AUC > 0.95); however, forecasting and backcasting to alternative time periods suggested less predictive power. Our results identify fragments that could be considered refuges for endemic plains fish species and we highlight significant environmental factors (e.g., discharge) that could be manipulated to aid recovery.     

北方草原牧户心理载畜率与草畜平衡生态管理途径

探讨牧户心理载畜率与草畜平衡生态管理的途径对于草原有效减畜、遏止草原退化、实现可持续发展具有重要意义。从生态学和社会科学相结合的角度,采用问卷调查、情景实验及综合分析等多种方法,探讨了北方草原牧户心理载畜率的存在、计算和影响因素,以及牧户生产决策行为特征和可能的生态管理途径。研究发现,在草甸草原、典型草原和荒漠草原,牧户行为属"有限理性",是有限理性的"生态经济人",风险规避是其基本特征,牧户生产决策表现出禀赋效应、损失厌恶、框架效应等;牧户草场所属草原类型和牲畜存栏数显著影响牧户对草场超载的认知和判断,在不同草原类型区,户主文化水平、性别、民族和是否嘎查干部等亦显著影响牧户对超载的认知和判断;需采取基于进化博弈的分步式、合作式及示范引导式的适应性减畜的生态管理途径,以实现牧户心理载畜率向生态优化载畜率的转移,实现优化牧户生产方式、减少牲畜数量、治理草原退化、北方牧区生态和牧民经济双赢的目标。     

Dangerous life at the edge: Implications of seed predation for roadside revegetation

Question

Anthropogenic edges caused by transport infrastructure such as dirt roads and trails (also known as Soft Linear Developments; SLD) are pervasive in almost every terrestrial ecosystem. Revegetating these edges may reduce some of their negative effects, such as their permeability to biological invasions and detrimental effects on wildlife, potentially becoming suitable habitat for a broad range of species. Selecting species with low post‐dispersal seed predation rates may improve the effectiveness of revegetation programmes.

Location

Mediterranean scrublands in SW Spain.

Methods

We made offerings of a total of 16,000 seeds of eight species of fleshy‐fruit shrubs both along SLD edges and scrubland interiors in two independent blocks in each of three distant locations. Using four types of selective enclosure, we assessed the relative contribution of three seed predator guilds (ants, rodents and birds) to seed predation rates both along SLD edges and scrubland interiors.

Results

The effects of anthropogenic edges on seed predation rates were species‐specific. The large and hard‐seeded species Chamaerops humilis was not predated at all. Juniperus phoenicea and Corema album seeds had higher predation rates in scrubland interiors than in edges. The small‐seeded Rubus ulmifolius experienced relatively low seed predation rates compared to the other species. Predation rates for this species were higher along SLD edges than in scrubland interiors. Ants were the main seed predators in the area, and showed marked preferences for J. macrocarpa and C. album seeds at both SLD edges and scrubland interiors.

Conclusions

Our results show the strong context‐dependency of seed predation rates in both SLD edges and scrubland interiors, and thus the importance of well spatially and temporally replicated studies. Species with large and hard seeds may be good candidates for roadside revegetation programmes. However, the relative suitability of plant species would depend on the seed predator community. Our findings confirm that studies on seed predation may help planning cost‐effective species selection for edge revegetation efforts worldwide.     

Interim Responses of Floodplain Wetland Vegetation to Phase I of the Kissimmee River Restoration Project: Comparisons of Vegetation Maps from Five Periods in the River's History

Phase I of the Kissimmee River Restoration Project (KRRP) reestablished intermittent inundation of the river's floodplain by backfilling 12 km of the C‐38 flood control canal in 2001. We compared floodplain vegetation maps based on 2003 and 2008 aerial imagery (2 and 7 years following completion of Phase I, respectively) to vegetation maps from 1954 (pre‐channelization), 1974 (3 years after channelization), and 1996 (25 years after channelization) to evaluate broad‐scale vegetation responses to Phase I restoration. Results indicate that the extent of wetland plant communities expanded rapidly, more than doubling in area within 2 years after completion of Phase I, and that by 2008 wetlands had nearly recovered to pre‐channelization levels. However, full reestablishment of the pre‐channelization wetland mosaic has not yet occurred. Prior to channelization, much of the floodplain was dominated by a broadleaf marsh (BLM) community associated with extended, deep annual flooding, while shorter‐hydroperiod communities dominated the floodplain in 2003 and 2008. Prior to restoration construction, the reestablishment of BLM was predicted to be slow because suitable hydrology is dependent on project components that will not be in place until all restoration components are completed (projected for 2019). Hydrologic data indicate that the duration and variability of floodplain inundation have not yet achieved restoration targets over the entire Phase I study area. Other factors affecting vegetation responses are likely involved, including the age and viability of soil seed banks, the rarity of relict propagule sources following the channelized period, and competition from an invasive wetland shrub species.     

Vulnerability of rangeland beef cattle production to climate‐induced NPP fluctuations in the US Great Plains

The vulnerability of rangeland beef cattle production to increasing climate variability in the US Great Plains has received minimal attention in spite of potentially adverse socioeconomic and ecological consequences. Vulnerability was assessed as the frequency and magnitude of years in which net primary production (NPP) deviated >±25% from mean values, to represent major forage surplus and deficit years, for a historic reference period (1981–2010), mid‐century (2041–2065), and late‐century (2075–2099) periods. NPP was simulated by MC2, a dynamic global vegetation model, driven by five climate projections for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Historically, 4–4.7 years per decade showed either NPP surpluses or deficits. The future number of extreme years increased to 5.4–6.4 and 5.9–6.9 per decade for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, which represents an increase of 33%–56% and 38%–73%, respectively. Future simulations exhibited increases in surplus years to between 3 and 5 years in the Northern Plains and 3–3.5 in the Southern Plains. The number of deficit years remained near historic values of 2 in the Northern Plains, but increased in the Southern Plains from 2.5 to 3.3 per decade. Historically, NPP in extreme surplus and deficit years both deviated 40% from mean NPP in all three regions. The magnitude of deficit years increased by 6%–17% in future simulations for all three regions, while the magnitude of surplus years decreased 16% in the Northern Plains and increased 16% in the Southern Plains. The Southern Plains was the only region to exhibit an increase in the magnitude of both surplus and deficit years. Unprecedented future variability of NPP may surpass the existing adaptive capacity of beef producers and adversely impact the economic viability of rangeland cattle production and ecological sustainability of rangeland resources.