The automation and evaluation of nested clade phylogeographic analysis

Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) is a popular method for reconstructing the demographic history of spatially distributed populations from genetic data. Although some parts of the analysis are automated, there is no unique and widely followed algorithm for doing this in its entirety, beginning with the data, and ending with the inferences drawn from the data. This article describes a method that automates NCPA, thereby providing a framework for replicating analyses in an objective way. To do so, a number of decisions need to be made so that the automated implementation is representative of previous analyses. We review how the NCPA procedure has evolved since its inception and conclude that there is scope for some variability in the manual application of NCPA. We apply the automated software to three published datasets previously analyzed manually and replicate many details of the manual analyses, suggesting that the current algorithm is representative of how a typical user will perform NCPA. We simulate a large number of replicate datasets for geographically distributed, but entirely random-mating, populations. These are then analyzed using the automated NCPA algorithm. Results indicate that NCPA tends to give a high frequency of false positives. In our simulations we observe that 14% of the clades give a conclusive inference that a demographic event has occurred, and that 75% of the datasets have at least one clade that gives such an inference. This is mainly due to the generation of multiple statistics per clade, of which only one is required to be significant to apply the inference key. We survey the inferences that have been made in recent publications and show that the most commonly inferred processes (restricted gene flow with isolation by distance and contiguous range expansion) are those that are commonly inferred in our simulations. However, published datasets typically yield a richer set of inferences with NCPA than obtained in our random-mating simulations, and further testing of NCPA with models of structured populations is necessary to examine its accuracy.     

Statistical hypothesis testing in intraspecific phylogeography: nested clade phylogeographical analysis vs. approximate Bayesian computation

Nested clade phylogeographical analysis (NCPA) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have been used to test phylogeographical hypotheses. Multilocus NCPA tests null hypotheses, whereas ABC discriminates among a finite set of alternatives. The interpretive criteria of NCPA are explicit and allow complex models to be built from simple components. The interpretive criteria of ABC are ad hoc and require the specification of a complete phylogeographical model. The conclusions from ABC are often influenced by implicit assumptions arising from the many parameters needed to specify a complex model. These complex models confound many assumptions so that biological interpretations are difficult. Sampling error is accounted for in NCPA, but ABC ignores important sources of sampling error that creates pseudo-statistical power. NCPA generates the full sampling distribution of its statistics, but ABC only yields local probabilities, which in turn make it impossible to distinguish between a good fitting model, a non-informative model, and an over-determined model. Both NCPA and ABC use approximations, but convergences of the approximations used in NCPA are well defined whereas those in ABC are not. NCPA can analyse a large number of locations, but ABC cannot. Finally, the dimensionality of tested hypothesis is known in NCPA, but not for ABC. As a consequence, the 'probabilities' generated by ABC are not true probabilities and are statistically non-interpretable. Accordingly, ABC should not be used for hypothesis testing, but simulation approaches are valuable when used in conjunction with NCPA or other methods that do not rely on highly parameterized models.     

Multiple causation of phylogeographical pattern as revealed by nested clade analysis of the bamboo viper (Trimeresurus stejnegeri) within Taiwan

In order to assess the utility of nested clade analysis, both standard phylogenetic algorithms and nested clade analysis were performed on a geographically widespread survey of mitochondrial DNA haplotypes of the bamboo viper, Trimeresurus stejnegeri, within Taiwan. Gross tree topologies were congruent for all analyses and indicated the presence of two geographically overlapping clades within Taiwan. The smaller lineage was restricted to the north and east coasts, whereas the larger lineage occupied all but the northern range of the species within Taiwan including the Pacific offshore populations of Green and Orchid Islands. The phylogeographical pattern supports the existence of at least one colonization event from the continent since the initial isolation of Taiwan from the mainland in the Pliocene. However, determining the exact number of colonization events was not possible due to the simultaneous vicariant forces of hypothesized continental landbridge connections and the occurrence of dramatic in situ orogenesis throughout the Pleistocene. Nested clade analysis provided multiple temporal and spatial population historical inferences that are not possible with standard analyses and therefore should become widely applied to future phylogeographical studies.     

Linear habitats and the nested clade analysis: an empirical evaluation of geographic versus river distances using an Ozark crayfish (Decapoda: Cambaridae)

Abstract .The nested clade analysis can be extremely useful in testing for an association between genetic variation and geography and in explaining these observed patterns in terms of historical or contemporary population processes. The strength of this method lies in its ability to test a variety of processes simultaneously under a rigorous statistical framework. Indeed, many recent studies have used the nested analysis in a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic taxa. However, it has been suggested that riverine, riparian, or coastal species may be better examined using river (or coastal) distances rather than the standard geographic (great circle) distances among populations. It is thought that the standard geographic distances may not adequately describe the actual distances involved between populations of species inhabiting these one-dimensional (riverine) habitats. Therefore, we analyzed population data from an Ozark crayfish, Orconectes luteus , to examine the effects on the results of a nested clade analysis using river distances. In most cases, the haplotypes detected in this crayfish were unique to a particular drainage or a group of neighboring drainages, indicating very little movement of individuals among drainages. Five major population groups were detected, corresponding to many of the major river drainages sampled in this study. The two types of distance analyses obtain similar results for higher-level (older) clades, but differ in many of the inferences made for lower-level (younger) clades. However, we suggest that the comparison of both types of analyses for riverine species may enhance the process of elucidating historical and contemporary population processes, especially in cases where the transfer of individuals among different drainages are involved.     

Gene flow, dispersal, and nested clade analysis among populations of the stonefly Peltoperla tarteri in the southern Appalachians

We examined the genetic structure and phylogeography of populations of the stonefly Peltoperla tarteri in the Southern Appalachians to determine the extent and likely mechanism for dispersal of this stream insect. A 454-base-pair (bp) portion of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced from a minimum of 20 individuals from eight populations. Pairwise FST and exact tests showed high levels of differentiation among almost all populations except those on the same stream. amova analysis detected significant genetic differentiation between streams within drainages (phi(SD) = 0.14, P < 0.001), and there was a slight positive correlation between aquatic distance and genetic distance (r = 0.295, P = 0.03). According to nested clade analysis, the present day pattern of genetic variation in P. tarteri is the result of a historical range expansion coupled with restricted gene flow with isolation by distance. Together, these analyses suggest that adult dispersal is limited and that movement by larvae is the primary dispersal mechanism for P. tarteri.     

Population genetic structure of the toad Bufo woodhousii: an empirical assessment of the effects of haplotype extinction on nested cladistic analysis

Nested cladistic analysis (NCA) is increasingly being used to infer historical population-level processes, including population fragmentation, range expansion and long-distance colonization. However, the effects on interpretation of NCA inferences of stochastic extinction of haplotypes due to genetic drift (lineage sorting), or of haplotype loss via localized biotic or climatic influences, have not been thoroughly explored. We provide empirical evidence suggesting that NCA may misinterpret population history when haplotypes or haplotype groups from one clade are replaced by those of another clade. We do so by using NCA to analyse mitochondrial sequences from the toad Bufo woodhousii from 45 locations spanning the Great Plains and southwestern USA. Portions of this region were glaciated and/or desertified in the late Pleistocene and early Holocene, and hence uninhabitable for plains-dwelling organisms. Although NCA inferences of isolation-by-distance and gradual range expansion in B. woodhousii are compatible with expectations based on climatic data and toad biology, NCA also detected several instances of long-distance movement. Such movement seems unlikely, given the low vagility of this species. We conclude that inferences of long-distance colonization likely result from extinction of haplotypes in intervening areas. We suggest using additional methods to look for congruent inferences, and amending the NCA inference key, to help avoid misinterpretations resulting from haplotype extinction.     

Phylogeography of the Vosges mountains populations of Gonioctena pallida (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae): a nested clade analysis of mitochondrial DNA haplotypes

The pattern of genetic variation in the leaf beetle Gonioctena pallida was investigated inside the Vosges mountains using a highly variable 363 bp DNA fragment of the mitochondrial control region. Sequencing of 242 individuals, sampled in a geographical area of 100 x 40 km, identified 61 haplotypes whose genealogy was inferred. The resulting haplotype network exhibits four star-like phylogenies, two of which may be indicative of a population having recently expanded in size from a small number of founders. Nested clade analysis suggested multiple past expansion events, but also isolation by distance and possibly past fragmentation events, as the causes of the detected geographical associations of haplotypes. These results indicate the existence of effective barriers to gene flow inside the investigated area. Because the oldest demographic events inferred in the nested clade analysis were identified as expansion events, we hypothesize that a small population of founders have expanded not only in size, but also in geographical range from the south towards the north and east of the Vosges.     

The evolutionary history of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) inferred from phylogeographic, nested clade, and mismatch analyses of mitochondrial DNA variation

Phylogeographic, nested clade, and mismatch analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation were used to infer the temporal dynamics of distributional and demographic history of brown trout (Salmo trutta). Both new and previously published data were analyzed for 1,794 trout from 174 populations. This combined analysis improved our knowledge of the complex evolutionary history of brown trout throughout its native Eurasian and North African range of distribution in many ways. It confirmed the existence of five major evolutionary lineages that evolved in geographic isolation during the Pleistocene and have remained largely allopatric since then. These should be recognized as the basic evolutionarily significant units within brown trout. Finer phylogeographic structuring was also resolved within major lineages. Contrasting temporal juxtaposition of different evolutionary factors and timing of major demographic expansions were observed among lineages. These unique evolutionary histories have been shaped both by the differential latitudinal impact of glaciations on habitat loss and potential for dispersal, as well as climatic impacts and landscape heterogeneity that translated in a longitudinal pattern of genetic diversity and population structuring at more southern latitudes. This study also provided evidence for the role of biological factors in addition to that of physical isolation in limiting introgressive hybridization among major trout lineages.     

Phylogeographic analysis of a recent radiation of Enallagma damselflies (Odonata: Coenagrionidae)

A phylogenetic hypothesis revealed two recent radiations among species of Enallagma damselflies, and extensive ecological work suggests that both adaptive and nonadaptive processes are involved in these radiations. We analysed the geographical pattern of genetic variability at 868 bp of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) among 283 individuals of 5 species displaying little ecological differentiation to identify the ancestral lineage, support their independent evolutionary trajectories and identify historical events and the underlying mechanism for one of these radiations. Nested clade analysis results clearly support a past event of range fragmentation in E. hageni. These Atlantic and Continental hageni races experienced distinct dispersal histories and still maintain nearly nonoverlapping ranges All four other species derive from the Continental hageni. Whereas three species endemic to the Atlantic coastal plain show little genetic variation, E. ebrium shared several haplotypes with the Continental hageni. Contrasting levels of genetic differentiation between E. hageni and E. ebrium in geographical areas associated with distinct events of E. hageni's recent history support the recent origin of this species. Altogether, our results are compatible with a process of radiation via divergence in mate recognition systems within the Continental hageni race following secondary contacts between putative refugial races.     

Phylogeographic history of the land snail Candidula unifasciata (Helicellinae,Stylommatophora): fragmentation,corridor migration,and secondary contact

Abstract.— We studied sequence variation in 16S rDNA in 204 individuals from 37 populations of the land snail Candidula unifasciata (Poiret 1801) across the core species range in France, Switzerland, and Germany. Phylogeographic, nested clade, and coalescence analyses were used to elucidate the species evolutionary history. The study revealed the presence of two major evolutionary lineages that evolved in separate refuges in southeast France as result of previous fragmentation during the Pleistocene. Applying a recent extension of the nested clade analysis (Templeton 2001), we inferred that range expansions along river valleys in independent corridors to the north led eventually to a secondary contact zone of the major clades around the Geneva Basin. There is evidence supporting the idea that the formation of the secondary contact zone and the colonization of Germany might be postglacial events. The phylogeographic history inferred for C. unifasciata differs from general biogeographic patterns of postglacial colonization previously identified for other taxa, and it might represent a common model for species with restricted dispersal.     

Cryptic speciation in the southern African vlei rat Otomys irroratus complex: evidence derived from mitochondrial cyt b and niche modelling

The vlei rat Otomys irroratus has a wide distribution in southern Africa with several datasets indicating the presence of two putative species (O. irroratus and O. auratus). In the present study we use mitochrondrial cyt b data (～950 bp) from 98 specimens (including museum material) collected throughout the range of the species to determine the geographical limits of the two recognized species, and we link this to niche modelling to validate these species. Phylogenetic analysis of the DNA sequence data, using maximum parsimony, neighbour joining and Bayesian inference, retrieved two divergent statistically well‐supported clades. Clade A occurs in the Western and Eastern Cape while Clade B occurs in the Free State, KwaZulu‐Natal, Northern Cape and Mpumalanga provinces of South Africa and Zimbabwe. Mean sequence divergence between the two clades (A and B) was 7.0% and between sub‐clades comprising clade B it was 4.8%; the two clades diverged during the Pleistocene. Within Clade A the mean sequence divergence among specimens was 1.91%. Niche modelling revealed that the incipient species occupy distinct bioclimatic niches associated with seasonality of precipitation. Our data allow insightful analysis into the factors that could have led to cladogenesis within this rodent. More significantly, the new data enable us to pinpoint the Eastern Cape province as a contact zone for the divergent species. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 104 , 192–206.     

Phylogeography of western Pacific Leucetta 'chagosensis' (Porifera: Calcarea) from ribosomal DNA sequences: implications for population history and conservation of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (Australia)

Leucetta 'chagosensis' is a widespread calcareous sponge, occurring in shaded habitats of Indo-Pacific coral reefs. In this study we explore relationships among 19 ribosomal DNA sequence types (the ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 region plus flanking gene sequences) found among 54 individuals from 28 locations throughout the western Pacific, with focus on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Maximum parsimony analysis revealed phylogeographical structuring into four major clades (although not highly supported by bootstrap analysis) corresponding to the northern/central GBR with Guam and Taiwan, the southern GBR and subtropical regions south to Brisbane, Vanuatu and Indonesia. Subsequent nested clade analysis (NCA) confirmed this structure with a probability of > 95%. After NCA of geographical distances, a pattern of range expansion from the internal Indonesian clade was inferred at the total cladogram level, as the Indonesian clade was found to be the internal and therefore oldest clade. Two distinct clades were found on the GBR, which narrowly overlap geographically in a line approximately from the Whitsunday Islands to the northern Swain Reefs. At various clade levels, NCA inferred that the northern GBR clade was influenced by past fragmentation and contiguous range expansion events, presumably during/after sea level low stands in the Pleistocene, after which the northern GBR might have been recolonized from the Queensland Plateau in the Coral Sea. The southern GBR clade is most closely related to subtropical L. 'chagosensis', and we infer that the southern GBR probably was recolonized from there after sea level low stands, based on our NCA results and supported by oceanographic data. Our results have important implications for conservation and management of the GBR, as they highlight the importance of marginal transition zones in the generation and maintenance of species rich zones, such as the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area.     

Population genetic structure reveals terrestrial affinities for a headwater stream insect

1. The spatial distribution of stream‐dwelling organisms is often considered to be limited primarily according to the hierarchical structure of the hydrologic network, and previous conceptual models of population genetic structure have reflected this generality. Headwater specialists, however, are confined to short upstream sections of the network, and therefore are unlikely to respond in the same way as species with a broader range of habitat tolerance. 2. Here, we propose a model to describe spatial patterns of genetic diversity in headwater specialists with a limited ability for among‐stream dispersal. The headwater model predicts a partitioning of genetic variance according to higher‐elevation ‘islands’ of terrestrial habitat that provide required headwater stream conditions. The model therefore expects a geographic pattern of genetic variance similar to that expected for low‐dispersal terrestrial species occupying the adjacent habitat. 3. Using a 1032‐bp mitochondrial DNA fragment encompassing parts of the COI and COII genes, we demonstrate that Madrean Sky Islands populations of the giant water bug Abedus herberti conform to the proposed headwater model. Furthermore, they exhibit phylogeographic patterns broadly concordant with those shown for several terrestrial species in the region, including a major zone of discontinuity in the Chiricahua mountain range. 4. Overall, populations are highly isolated from one another, and a nested clade analysis suggested that A. herberti population structure, similarly to terrestrial Sky Islands species studied previously, has been influenced by Pleistocene climatic cycles causing expansion and contraction of temperate woodland habitat. 5. Because they have no ability to disperse among present‐day mountaintop habitat islands, A. herberti and other headwater species with limited dispersal ability are vulnerable to the projected increasing rate of climatic warming in this region.     

Population genetics, phylogeography and speciation of Cystodytes (Ascidiacea) in the western Mediterranean Sea

Several morphotypes that so far have been attributed to the allegedly cosmopolitan ascidian Cystodytes dellechiajei occur in the Mediterranean Sea. Colour variation is the difference most frequently reported. In this study, we addressed the genetic structure of this ascidian in relation to geographical location and colour morph. Partial sequences of the gene cytochrome  c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) were obtained from seven populations of the western Mediterranean, encompassing eight colour varieties. All population genetic analyses (exact test, pairwise F _ST, hierarchical analysis of molecular variance, multidimensional scaling, nested clade analysis) indicated clearly that differences between colour morphs are large enough to obscure any geographical differentiation when colours are combined within localities. When variance due to colour divergence was removed, however, a significant geographical variability between localities remained. The genetic divergence between the colour morphs analysed was significant in comparisons of the brown and purple forms with the others, but not among the green, blue, and white morphs. Phylogeographic analyses suggest that population fragmentation and range expansions have shaped the present-day distribution of the haplotypes. Taken together with existing chemotype information, our results indicate that several species are present in the area, and that a thorough revision of the genus is necessary.  © 2006 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2006, 88 , 203–214.     

Population history of Manihot esculenta (Euphorbiaceae) inferred from nuclear DNA sequences

The nature of gene flow in plants -- including the propensity for interspecific introgression -- makes them interesting candidates for phylogeographical analysis. Plant phylogeography studies have been limited, however, by the availability of suitable intraspecific variation. In this study, DNA sequence variation from a nuclear gene [Glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase; (G3pdh)] was used to examine the population history of Manihot esculenta ssp. flabellifolia and a potentially hybridizing species, M. pruinosa. These species occur in the rainforest-savanna ecotone adjoining the Amazon basin, a region believed to have undergone major habitat shifts since the Pleistocene. Geographical distributions of the G3pdh haplotypes indicate genetic isolation-by-distance across the range of M. esculenta ssp. flabellifolia. However, there is greater genetic similarity between northeastern and western populations than would be expected given the present species distribution. A nested clade analysis suggests that northeastern and western populations were connected by gene flow until relatively recently, when they became fragmented. This inferred fragmentation event is consistent with post-Pleistocene habitat shifts proposed for the Amazon basin. At the interspecific level, haplotype sharing with M. pruinosa may reflect either recent interspecific introgression or incomplete lineage sorting between these closely related species.     

Phylogeography of shy and white-capped albatrosses inferred from mitochondrial DNA sequences: implications for population history and taxonomy

The evolutionary relationship between shy (Thalassarche cauta) and white-capped (T. steadi) albatrosses was examined using mitochondrial control region sequences. Results were interpreted in the context of a recent and contentious taxonomic revision that recommended full species status for shy and white-capped albatrosses. Low sequence divergence between shy and white-capped albatrosses (1.8%) and between their close relatives, Salvin's and Chatham albatrosses (2.9%), was observed. Much higher sequence divergence was found between the shy/white-capped pair and the Salvin's/Chatham pair (7.0%). Phylogenetic analyses confirmed the separation of the shy/white-capped pair from the Salvin's/Chatham pair but did not provide species-level resolution. Phylogeographic analyses, including a nested clade analysis, FST estimates and an analysis of molecular variance, indicated unambiguous genetic structuring between shy and white-capped albatrosses, thus confirming the demographic isolation of the species, but showed little to no structuring within each species. The geographical distribution of mtDNA haplotypes and other evidence suggest that shy albatrosses arose through range expansion by white-capped albatrosses.     

Nested clade analysis of the freshwater shrimp, Caridina zebra (Decapoda: Atyidae), from north-eastern Australia

The freshwater shrimp, Caridina zebra, is endemic to montane rainforest streams of the Atherton Tableland, north-eastern Australia. As the confluences of many of the headwater streams are in unsuitable habitat, dispersal is expected to be highly restricted. Results from a previous allozyme survey for this species suggested that historical dispersal between separate river drainages had occurred due to rearrangements of the drainage lines at some stage in the recent past. The aim of this study was to use temporal information from the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (CO-I) gene to determine whether the observed genetic structure was a result of historical processes, or alternatively, due to low levels of terrestrial dispersal. The mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) data were analysed using nested clade analysis, which can differentiate between historical fragmentation and range expansion vs. contemporary restricted gene flow. The results displayed three divergent clades that were likely to have arisen in allopatry. One widespread clade, with individuals in more than one river drainage, reflected a pattern of restricted gene flow. This suggests that this species is capable of terrestrial dispersal.     

Postglacial dispersal of the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) on the Iberian peninsula reconstructed from nested clade and mismatch analyses of mitochondrial DNA genetic variation

Nested clade analysis was applied to cytochrome b restriction site data previously obtained on 20 natural populations of the European rabbit across the Iberian Peninsula to test the hypothesis of postglacial dispersal from two main refugia, one in the northeast and the other in the southwest. Apart from historical fragmentation that resulted in geographic discontinuity of two distinct mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) clades A and B, patterns of haplotype genetic variability have been shaped mostly by restricted gene flow via isolation by distance. The distribution of tip versus interior haplotypes suggests that dispersal occurred from both the southwestern and northeastern groups. Dispersal from the southwest had a north and northwest direction, whereas from the northeast it had mostly a western and southern orientation, with subsequent overlap in a southeastern-northwestern axis across the Iberian Peninsula. The analysis of the pairwise mismatch distribution of a 179-181-bp fragment of the mtDNA control region, for seven of those populations, further supports the idea that major patterns of dispersal were in the direction of central Iberia. Additionally, rabbit populations do not show signs of any significant loss of genetic diversity in the recent past, implying that they maintained large population sizes and structure throughout the ice ages. This is congruent with the fact that the Iberian Peninsula was itself a glacial refugium during Quaternary ice ages. Nonetheless, climatic oscillations of this period, although certainly milder than in northern Europe, were sufficient to affect the range distributions of Iberian organisms.