Likelihood‐based inference of population history from low‐coverage de novo genome assemblies

Short‐read sequencing technologies have in principle made it feasible to draw detailed inferences about the recent history of any organism. In practice, however, this remains challenging due to the difficulty of genome assembly in most organisms and the lack of statistical methods powerful enough to discriminate between recent, nonequilibrium histories. We address both the assembly and inference challenges. We develop a bioinformatic pipeline for generating outgroup‐rooted alignments of orthologous sequence blocks from de novo low‐coverage short‐read data for a small number of genomes, and show how such sequence blocks can be used to fit explicit models of population divergence and admixture in a likelihood framework. To illustrate our approach, we reconstruct the Pleistocene history of an oak‐feeding insect (the oak gallwasp Biorhiza pallida), which, in common with many other taxa, was restricted during Pleistocene ice ages to a longitudinal series of southern refugia spanning the Western Palaearctic. Our analysis of sequence blocks sampled from a single genome from each of three major glacial refugia reveals support for an unexpected history dominated by recent admixture. Despite the fact that 80% of the genome is affected by admixture during the last glacial cycle, we are able to infer the deeper divergence history of these populations. These inferences are robust to variation in block length, mutation model and the sampling location of individual genomes within refugia. This combination of de novo assembly and numerical likelihood calculation provides a powerful framework for estimating recent population history that can be applied to any organism without the need for prior genetic resources.     

A likelihood-based approach to estimating and testing for isolation by distance

Simple regression of genetic similarities between pairs of populations on their corresponding geographic distances is frequently used to detect the presence of isolation by distance (IBD). However, these pairwise values are obviously not independent and there is no parametric procedure for estimating and testing for the IBD intercepts and slopes based on standard regression theory. Nonparametric tests, such as the Mantel test, and resampling techniques, such as bootstrapping, have been exploited with limited success. Here, I describe a likelihood-based analysis to allow for simultaneously detecting patterns of correlated residuals and estimating and testing for the presence of IBD. It is shown, through the analysis of two molecular datasets in pine species, that different covariance structures of the residuals exist. More over, the likelihood ratio tests under these covariance structures are less sensitive to the presence of IBD than the Mantel test and the simple regression analysis but more sensitive than the bootstrap and jackknife samples over independent populations or population pairs. Because the likelihood analysis directly models and accounts for nonindependence of residuals, it should legitimately detect the presence of IBD, thereby allowing for accurate inferences about evolutionary and demographic processes influencing the extent and patterns of IBD.     

Estimating population divergence time and phylogeny from single-nucleotide polymorphisms data with outgroup ascertainment bias

The inference of population divergence times and branching patterns is of fundamental importance in many population genetic analyses. Many methods have been developed for estimating population divergence times, and recently, there has been particular attention towards genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) data. However, most SNP data have been affected by an ascertainment bias caused by the SNP selection and discovery protocols. Here, we present a modification of an existing maximum likelihood method that will allow approximately unbiased inferences when ascertainment is based on a set of outgroup populations. We also present a method for estimating trees from the asymmetric dissimilarity measures arising from pairwise divergence time estimation in population genetics. We evaluate the methods by simulations and by applying them to a large SNP data set of seven East Asian populations.     

The roles of ecology,behaviour and effective population size in the evolution of a community

Organismal traits such as ecological specialization and migratory behaviour may affect colonization potential, population persistence and degree of isolation, factors that determine the composition and genetic structure of communities. However, studies focusing on community assembly rarely consider these factors jointly. We sequenced 16 nuclear genes and one mitochondrial gene from Caucasian and European populations of 30 forest‐dwelling avian species that represent diverse ecological (specialist–generalist) and behavioural (migratory‐resident) backgrounds. We tested the effects of organismal traits on population divergence and community assembly in the Caucasus forest, a continental mountain island setting. We found that (i) there is no concordance in divergence times between the Caucasus forest bird populations and their European counterparts, (ii) habitat specialists tend to be more divergent than generalists and (iii) residents tend to be more divergent than migrants. Thus, specialists and residents contribute to the high level of endemism of Caucasus forest avifauna more than do generalists and migrants. Patterns of genetic differentiation are better explained by differences in effective population sizes, an often overlooked factor in comparative studies of phylogeography and speciation, than by divergence times or levels of gene flow. Our results suggest that the Caucasus forest avifauna was assembled through time via dispersal and/or multiple vicariant events, rather than originating simultaneously via a single isolation event. Our study is one of the first multilocus, multispecies analyses revealing how ecological and migratory traits impact the evolutionary history of community formation on a continental island.     

A comparison of DNA extraction methods for high‐throughput DNA analyses

The inclusion of next‐generation sequencing technologies in population genetic and phylogenetic studies has elevated the need to balance time and cost of DNA extraction without compromising DNA quality. We tested eight extraction methods – ranging from low‐ to high‐throughput techniques – and eight phyla: Annelida, Arthropoda, Cnidaria, Chordata, Echinodermata, Mollusca, Ochrophyta and Porifera. We assessed DNA yield, purity, efficacy and cost of each method. Extraction efficacy was quantified using the proportion of successful polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of two molecular markers for metazoans (mitochondrial COI and nuclear histone 3) and one for Ochrophyta (mitochondrial nad6) at four time points – 0.5, 1, 2 and 3 years following extraction. DNA yield and purity were quantified using NanoDrop absorbance ratios. Cost was estimated in terms of time and material expense. Results show differences in DNA yield, purity and PCR success between extraction methods and that performance also varied by taxon. The traditional time‐intensive, low‐throughput CTAB phenol–chloroform extraction performed well across taxa, but other methods also performed well and provide the opportunity to reduce time spent at the bench and increase throughput.     

Reproducibility of Vibrionaceae population structure in coastal bacterioplankton

How reproducibly microbial populations assemble in the wild remains poorly understood. Here, we assess evidence for ecological specialization and predictability of fine-scale population structure and habitat association in coastal ocean Vibrionaceae across years. We compare Vibrionaceae lifestyles in the bacterioplankton (combinations of free-living, particle, or zooplankton associations) measured using the same sampling scheme in 2006 and 2009 to assess whether the same groups show the same environmental association year after year. This reveals complex dynamics with populations falling primarily into two categories: (i) nearly equally represented in each of the two samplings and (ii) highly skewed, often to an extent that they appear exclusive to one or the other sampling times. Importantly, populations recovered at the same abundance in both samplings occupied highly similar habitats suggesting predictable and robust environmental association while skewed abundances of some populations may be triggered by shifts in ecological conditions. The latter is supported by difference in the composition of large eukaryotic plankton between years, with samples in 2006 being dominated by copepods, and those in 2009 by diatoms. Overall, the comparison supports highly predictable population-habitat linkage but highlights the fact that complex, and often unmeasured, environmental dynamics in habitat occurrence may have strong effects on population dynamics.     

Mitochondrial DNA phylogeography reveals marked population structure in the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus (Phyllostomidae)

Desmodus rotundus (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae; Desmodontinae) is the most common vampire bat and has a broad distribution, ranging from southern Mexico to central Chile in the west, and Paraguay and northern Argentina in the east of South America ( Koopman 1988 ). Because of its feeding habit, this bat is considered the main source of rabies transmission to cattle. Although this species has a large spectrum of morphological variability throughout its range, thus far no study has examined the distribution of genetic lineages over its geographic range. Four geographically circumscribed clades of D. rotundus were described in the Brazilian territory on the basis of mitochondrial sequence analyses: southern Atlantic forest (SAF), northern Atlantic forest (NAF), Pantanal (PAN) and Amazon plus Cerrado (AMC) clade. The differentiation among these clades is strongly supported statistically, although the phylogenetic relationship between them remains uncertain. The extremely high levels of sequence divergence that were found between clades (ranging from 6% to 11%) are the highest ever described for a Neotropical bat species and cannot be explained by female philopatry alone. This indicates that D. rotundus comprises two or more distinct, possibly cryptic species. The biogeographic pattern described for this bat is similar to those described for other bats and terrestrial mammals, suggesting geographical congruence between historical vicariant processes, including likely vicariant events between north and south Atlantic Forest and between the Atlantic Forest and the Amazon.     

Environmental heterogeneity and not vicariant biogeographic barriers generate community‐wide population structure in desert‐adapted snakes

Genetic structure can be influenced by local adaptation to environmental heterogeneity and biogeographic barriers, resulting in discrete population clusters. Geographic distance among populations, however, can result in continuous clines of genetic divergence that appear as structured populations. Here, we evaluate the relevant importance of these three factors over a landscape characterized by environmental heterogeneity and the presence of a hypothesized biogeographic barrier in producing population genetic structure within 13 codistributed snake species using a genomic data set. We demonstrate that geographic distance and environmental heterogeneity across western North America contribute to population genomic divergence. Surprisingly, landscape features long thought to contribute to biogeographic barriers play little role in divergence community wide. Our results suggest that isolation by environment is the most important contributor to genomic divergence. Furthermore, we show that models of population clustering that incorporate spatial information consistently outperform nonspatial models, demonstrating the importance of considering geographic distances in population clustering. We argue that environmental and geographic distances as drivers of community‐wide divergence should be explored before assuming the role of biogeographic barriers.     

Concordant phylogeography and cryptic speciation in two Western Palaearctic oak gall parasitoid species complexes

Little is known about the evolutionary history of most complex multi‐trophic insect communities. Widespread species from different trophic levels might evolve in parallel, showing similar spatial patterns and either congruent temporal patterns (Contemporary Host‐tracking) or later divergence in higher trophic levels (Delayed Host‐tracking). Alternatively, host shifts by natural enemies among communities centred on different host resources could disrupt any common community phylogeographic pattern. We examined these alternative models using two Megastigmus parasitoid morphospecies associated with oak cynipid galls sampled throughout their Western Palaearctic distributions. Based on existing host cynipid data, a parallel evolution model predicts that eastern regions of the Western Palaearctic should contain ancestral populations with range expansions across Europe about 1.6 million years ago and deeper species‐level divergence at both 8–9 and 4–5 million years ago. Sequence data from mitochondrial cytochrome b and multiple nuclear genes showed similar phylogenetic patterns and revealed cryptic genetic species within both morphospecies, indicating greater diversity in these communities than previously thought. Phylogeographic divergence was apparent in most cryptic species between relatively stable, diverse, putatively ancestral populations in Asia Minor and the Middle East, and genetically depauperate, rapidly expanding populations in Europe, paralleling patterns in host gallwasp species. Mitochondrial and nuclear data also suggested that Europe may have been colonized multiple times from eastern source populations since the late Miocene. Temporal patterns of lineage divergence were congruent within and across trophic levels, supporting the Contemporary Host‐tracking Hypothesis for community evolution.     

MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF POPULATION DIVERGENCE TIMES AND POPULATION PHYLOGENY IN MODELS WITHOUT MUTATION

In this paper we present a method for estimating population divergence times by maximum likelihood in models without mutation. The maximum-likelihood estimator is compared to a commonly applied estimator based on Wright's F_ST statistic. Simulations suggest that the maximum-likelihood estimator is less biased and has a lower variance than the F_ST-based estimator. The maximum-likelihood estimator provides a statistical framework for the analysis of population history given genetic data. We demonstrate how maximum-likelihood estimates of the branching pattern of divergence of multiple populations may be obtained. We also describe how the method may be applied to test hypotheses such as whether populations have maintained equal population sizes. We illustrate the method by applying it to two previously published sets of human restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) data.     

Mixture model for inferring susceptibility to mastitis in dairy cattle: a procedure for likelihood-based inference

A Gaussian mixture model with a finite number of components and correlated random effects is described. The ultimate objective is to model somatic cell count information in dairy cattle and to develop criteria for genetic selection against mastitis, an important udder disease. Parameter estimation is by maximum likelihood or by an extension of restricted maximum likelihood. A Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm is used for this purpose. The expectation step is carried out using Gibbs sampling, whereas the maximization step is deterministic. Ranking rules based on the conditional probability of membership in a putative group of uninfected animals, given the somatic cell information, are discussed. Several extensions of the model are suggested.     

The Isthmus of Panama: a major physical barrier to gene flow in a highly mobile pantropical seabird

To further test the hypothesis that the Isthmus of Panama is a major barrier to gene flow in pantropical seabirds, we applied phylogeographic methods to mitochondrial control sequence variation in masked booby (Sula dactylatra) populations on either side of the Isthmus of Panama and the southern tip of Africa. In accord with Steeves et al. (2003), we found that all Caribbean masked boobies with the 'secondary contact' cytochrome b haplotype (m-B) shared a control region haplotype (Sd_100), which grouped with Indian-Pacific haplotypes and not Caribbean-Atlantic haplotypes. In addition, Sd_100 was more closely related to control region haplotypes in the Indian Ocean than in the Pacific. We also found that the 'secondary contact' birds diverged more recently from extant populations in the Indian Ocean than in the Pacific. Thus, it appears that these masked boobies did not breach the Isthmus of Panama. Rather, birds likely dispersed around the southern tip of Africa during favourable oceanographic conditions in the Pleistocene.     

Phylogeography and speciation of colour morphs in the colonial ascidian Pseudodistoma crucigaster

Variation in pigmentation is common in marine invertebrates, although few studies have shown the existence of genetic differentiation of chromatic forms in these organisms. We studied the genetic structure of a colonial ascidian with populations of different colour morphs in the northwestern Mediterranean. A fragment of the c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) mitochondrial gene was sequenced in seven populations of Pseudodistoma crucigaster belonging to three different colour morphs (orange, yellow and grey). Maximum likelihood analyses showed two well-supported clades separating the orange morph from the yellow-grey morphotypes. Genetic divergence between these clades was 2.12%, and gamma(ST) values between populations of the two clades were high (average 0.936), pointing to genetic isolation. Nested clade and coalescence analyses suggest that a past fragmentation event may explain the phylogeographical origin of these two clades. Non-neutral mtDNA evolution is observed in our data when comparing the two clades, showing a significant excess of nonsynonymous polymorphism within the yellow-grey morphotype using the McDonald-Kreitman test, which is interpreted as further support of reproductive isolation. We conclude that the two clades might represent separate species. We compare the population genetic differentiation found with that estimated for other colonial and solitary ascidian species, and relate it to larval dispersal capabilities and other life-history traits.     

Phylogeography, genetic structure and population divergence time of cheetahs in Africa and Asia: evidence for long-term geographic isolates

The cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) has been described as a species with low levels of genetic variation. This has been suggested to be the consequence of a demographic bottleneck 10 000–12 000 years ago (ya) and also led to the assumption that only small genetic differences exist between the described subspecies. However, analysing mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites in cheetah samples from most of the historic range of the species we found relatively deep phylogeographic breaks between some of the investigated populations, and most of the methods assessed divergence time estimates predating the postulated bottleneck. Mitochondrial DNA monophyly and overall levels of genetic differentiation support the distinctiveness of Northern‐East African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus soemmeringii). Moreover, combining archaeozoological and contemporary samples, we show that Asiatic cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) are unambiguously separated from African subspecies. Divergence time estimates from mitochondrial and nuclear data place the split between Asiatic and Southern African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus jubatus) at 32 000–67 000 ya using an average mammalian microsatellite mutation rate and at 4700–44 000 ya employing human microsatellite mutation rates. Cheetahs are vulnerable to extinction globally and critically endangered in their Asiatic range, where the last 70–110 individuals survive only in Iran. We demonstrate that these extant Iranian cheetahs are an autochthonous monophyletic population and the last representatives of the Asiatic subspecies A. j. venaticus. We advocate that conservation strategies should consider the uncovered independent evolutionary histories of Asiatic and African cheetahs, as well as among some African subspecies. This would facilitate the dual conservation priorities of maintaining locally adapted ecotypes and genetic diversity.     

Efficient Strategies for Calculating Blockwise Likelihoods Under the Coalescent

The inference of demographic history from genome data is hindered by a lack of efficient computational approaches. In particular, it has proved difficult to exploit the information contained in the distribution of genealogies across the genome. We have previously shown that the generating function (GF) of genealogies can be used to analytically compute likelihoods of demographic models from configurations of mutations in short sequence blocks (Lohse et al. 2011). Although the GF has a simple, recursive form, the size of such likelihood calculations explodes quickly with the number of individuals and applications of this framework have so far been mainly limited to small samples (pairs and triplets) for which the GF can be written by hand. Here we investigate several strategies for exploiting the inherent symmetries of the coalescent. In particular, we show that the GF of genealogies can be decomposed into a set of equivalence classes that allows likelihood calculations from nontrivial samples. Using this strategy, we automated blockwise likelihood calculations for a general set of demographic scenarios in Mathematica. These histories may involve population size changes, continuous migration, discrete divergence, and admixture between multiple populations. To give a concrete example, we calculate the likelihood for a model of isolation with migration (IM), assuming two diploid samples without phase and outgroup information. We demonstrate the new inference scheme with an analysis of two individual butterfly genomes from the sister species Heliconius melpomene rosina and H. cydno.     

Genetic differentiation across a latitudinal gradient in two co-occurring butterfly species: revealing population differences in a context of climate change

Genetic differentiation within a species' range is determined by natural selection, genetic drift, and gene flow. Selection and drift enhance genetic differences if populations are sufficiently isolated, while gene flow precludes differentiation and local adaptation. Over large geographical areas, these processes can create a variety of scenarios, ranging from admixture to a high degree of population differentiation. Genetic differences among populations may signal functional differences within a species' range, potentially leading to population or ecotype-specific responses to global change. We investigated differentiation within the geographical range of two butterfly species along a broad latitudinal gradient. This gradient is the primary axis of climatic variation, and many ecologists expect populations at the poleward edge of this gradient to expand under climate change. Our study species inhabit a shared ecosystem and differ in body size and resource specialization; both also find their poleward range limit on an island. We find evidence for divergence of peripheral populations from the core in both taxa, suggesting the potential for genetic distinctiveness at the leading edge of climate change. We also find differences between the species in the extent of peripheral differentiation with the smaller and more specialized species showing greater population divergence (microsatellites and mtDNA) and reduced gene flow (mtDNA). Finally, gene flow estimates in both species differed strongly between two marker types. These findings suggest caution in assuming that populations are invariant across latitude and thus will respond as a single ecotype to climatic change.     

Impact of character correlation and variable groupings on modern human population tree resolution

Relationships among modern human populations are often explored through the use of linear measurements taken on the cranium and expressed in the form of dendrograms. However, craniometric variables are strongly correlated and thereby violate the assumption of independence that most statistical analyses require. This study explores the relationship between differing methods of variable treatment and the statistical robustness of the outcomes they yield, as depicted in interpopulational trees of relatedness among modern humans. Three methods of grouping variables are examined. The first method leaves them ungrouped, the second groups variables on the basis of the developmental and/or functional complex of the cranium to which they are thought to belong, and the last method reduces variables by using principal components analysis. The strength of each of these methods is tested through the use of the Continuous Character Maximum Likelihood (CONTML) program in the PHYLIP phylogeny inference package. This program produces output in the form of trees, and the resolution of the branching topology is given as a log-likelihood value, with statistical confidence intervals supporting each branch placement on the tree. The results indicate that leaving variables ungrouped provides misleadingly strong results by failing to account for character correlation. Of the alternative two grouping methods, the covarying components method yields the best-resolved tree with stronger statistical support for its topology than the approach of grouping variables on the basis of their location on the cranium. Finally, the implications for interpreting population histories based on such methods are discussed.     

Geographical patterns of genetic structure in marine species with contrasting life histories

Aim  Phylogeographical breaks may reflect historical or present-day impediments to gene flow, and the congruence of these breaks across multiple species lends insight into evolutionary history and connectivity among populations. In marine systems, examining the concordance of phylogeographical breaks is challenging due to the varied sampling scales in population genetics studies and the diverse life histories of marine organisms. A quantitative approach that considers the effects of sampling scale and species life history is needed.
Location  The south-east and south-west coasts of the United States.
Methods  We quantitatively analysed previously published datasets of marine fauna to look for concordance among phylogeographical breaks. We used a bootstrap approach to determine the regions where phylogeographical breaks are more common than expected by chance among species with planktonic dispersal as well as those with restricted dispersal.
Results  On the south-west coast, breaks were clustered near Point Conception among planktonic dispersers and near Los Angeles among restricted dispersers. On the south-east coast, breaks were most common near the southern tip of Florida for planktonic dispersers and near Cape Canaveral for restricted dispersers.
Main conclusions  Dispersal ability is an important determinant of phylogeographical patterns in marine species. Breaks among planktonic dispersers on both coasts are congruent with present-day flow-mediated barriers to dispersal, suggesting that phylogeographical structure in species with planktonic larvae may reflect contemporary oceanography, while breaks in restricted dispersers reflect historical processes. These results highlight the importance of explicitly considering sampling scale and life history when evaluating phylogeographical patterns.