Transplantation of organic surface horizons of boreal soils into warmer regions alters microbiology but not the temperature sensitivity of decomposition

Changes in soil carbon, the largest terrestrial carbon pool, are critical for the global carbon cycle, atmospheric CO₂ levels and climate. Climate warming is predicted to be most pronounced in the northern regions and therefore the large soil carbon pool residing in boreal forests will be subject to larger global warming impact than soil carbon pools in the temperate or the tropical forest. A major uncertainty in current estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance is related to decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM). We hypothesized that when soils are exposed to warmer climate the structure of the ground vegetation will change much more rapidly than the dominant tree species. This change will alter the quality and amount of litter input to the soil and induce changes in microbial communities, thus possibly altering the temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition. We transferred organic surface soil sections from the northern borders of the boreal forest zone to corresponding forest sites in the southern borders of the boreal forest zone and studied the effects of warmer climate after an adaptation period of 2 years. The results showed that initially ground vegetation and soil microbial community structure and community functions were different in northern and southern forest sites and that 2 years of exposure to warmer climate was long enough to cause changes in these ecological indicators. The rate of SOM decomposition was approximately equally sensitive to temperature irrespective of changes in vegetation or microbial communities in the studied forest sites. However, as temperature sensitivity of the decomposition increases with decreasing temperature regime, the proportional increase in the decomposition rate in northern latitudes could lead to significant carbon losses from the soils.     

Simulation of tree species composition and organic matter accumulation in Finnish boreal forests under changing climatic conditions

A model simulating the regeneration, growth and death of trees and the consequent carbon and nitrogen dynamics of the forest ecosystem was applied to determine the effect of expected temperature rise on tree species composition and the accumulation of organic matter in the boreal forest ecosystem in Finland (between latitudes 60°–70° N). In the southern and middle boreal zones a temperature rise of 2–3° C (temperature for 2 x CO₂) over a period of one hundred years increased the competitive capacity of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and birch species (Betula pendula and B. pubescens), and slowed down the invasion by Norway spruce (Picea abies). In the northern boreal zone a corresponding rise in temperature promoted the invasion of sites by Norway spruce. The accumulation of organic matter was promoted only slightly compared to that taking place in the current climatic conditions.A further doubling of temperature (temperature for 4 x CO₂) over an additional period of two hundred years led to the replacement of coniferous stands with deciduous onesin the southern and middle boreal zones. In the northern boreal zone an admixture of coniferous and deciduous species replaced pure coniferous stands with the latter taking over sites formerly classified as tundra woodland. In the southern and middle boreal zones the replacement of coniferous species induced a substantial decrease in the amount of organic matter; this returned to its former level following the establishment of deciduous species. In the northern boreal zone there was no major change in the amount of organic matter such as occurred in the case of the tundra woodland where the amount of organic matter accumulated was nearly as high as in the northern boreal zone.     

Large Impacts of Climatic Warming on Growth of Boreal Forests since 1960

Boreal forests are sensitive to climatic warming, because low temperatures hold back ecosystem processes, such as the mobilization of nitrogen in soils. A greening of the boreal landscape has been observed using remote sensing, and the seasonal amplitude of CO₂ in the northern hemisphere has increased, indicating warming effects on ecosystem productivity. However, field observations on responses of ecosystem productivity have been lacking on a large sub-biome scale. Here we report a significant increase in the annual growth of boreal forests in Finland in response to climatic warming, especially since 1990. This finding is obtained by linking meteorological records and forest inventory data on an area between 60° and 70° northern latitude. An additional increase in growth has occurred in response to changes in other drivers, such as forest management, nitrogen deposition and/or CO₂ concentration. A similar warming impact can be expected in the entire boreal zone, where warming takes place. Given the large size of the boreal biome – more than ten million km²– important climate feedbacks are at stake, such as the future carbon balance, transpiration and albedo.     

Experimental warming and burn severity alter soil CO2 flux and soil functional groups in a recently burned boreal forest

Global warming is projected to be greatest in northern regions, where forest fires are also increasing in frequency. Thus, interactions between fire and temperature on soil respiration at high latitudes should be considered in determining feedbacks to climate. We tested the hypothesis that experimental warming will augment soil CO₂ flux in a recently burned boreal forest by promoting microbial and root growth, but that this increase will be less apparent in more severely burned areas. We used open‐top chambers to raise temperatures 0.4–0.9°C across two levels of burn severity in a fire scar in Alaskan black spruce forest. After 3 consecutive years of warming, soil respiration was measured through a portable gas exchange system. Abundance of active microbes was determined by using Biolog EcoPlates^? for bacteria and ergosterol analysis for fungi. Elevated temperatures increased soil CO₂ flux by 20% and reduced root biomass, but had no effect on bacterial or fungal abundance or soil organic matter (SOM) content. Soil respiration, fungal abundance, SOM, and root biomass decreased with increasing burn severity. There were no significant interactions between temperature and burn severity with respect to any measurement. Higher soil respiration rates in the warmed plots may be because of higher metabolic activity of microbes or roots. All together, we found that postfire soils are a greater source of CO₂ to the atmosphere under elevated temperatures even in severely burned areas, suggesting that global warming may produce a positive feedback to atmospheric CO₂, even in young boreal ecosystems.     

Projecting the distribution of forests in New England in response to climate change

Aim To project the distribution of three major forest types in the northeastern USA in response to expected climate change. Location The New England region of the United States. Methods We modelled the potential distribution of boreal conifer, northern deciduous hardwood and mixed oak–hickory forests using the process‐based BIOME4 vegetation model parameterized for regional forests under historic and projected future climate conditions. Projections of future climate were derived from three general circulation models forced by three global warming scenarios that span the range of likely anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Results Annual temperature in New England is projected to increase by 2.2–3.3 °C by 2041–70 and by 3.0–5.2 °C by 2071–99 with corresponding increases in precipitation of 4.7–9.5% and 6.4–11.4%, respectively. We project that regional warming will result in the loss of 71–100% of boreal conifer forest in New England by the late 21st century. The range of mixed oak–hickory forests will shift northward by 1.0–2.1 latitudinal degrees (c. 100–200 km) and will increase in area by 149–431% by the end of the 21st century. Northern deciduous hardwoods are expected to decrease in area by 26% and move upslope by 76 m on average. The upslope movement of the northern deciduous hardwoods and the increase in oak–hickory forests coincide with an approximate 556 m upslope retreat of the boreal conifer forest by 2071–99. In our simulations, rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reduce the losses of boreal conifer forest in New England from expected losses based on climatic change alone. Main conclusion Projected climate warming in the 21st century is likely to cause the extensive loss of boreal conifer forests, reduce the extent of northern hardwood deciduous forests, and result in large increases of mixed oak–hickory forest in New England.     

Warming impacts on boreal fen CO2 exchange under wet and dry conditions

Northern peatlands form a major soil carbon (C) stock. With climate change, peatland C mineralization is expected to increase, which in turn would accelerate climate change. A particularity of peatlands is the importance of soil aeration, which regulates peatland functioning and likely modulates the responses to warming climate. Our aim is to assess the impacts of warming on a southern boreal and a sub‐arctic sedge fen carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange under two plausible water table regimes: wet and moderately dry. We focused this study on minerotrophic treeless sedge fens, as they are common peatland types at boreal and (sub)arctic areas, which are expected to face the highest rates of climate warming. In addition, fens are expected to respond to environmental changes faster than the nutrient poor bogs. Our study confirmed that CO₂ exchange is more strongly affected by drying than warming. Experimental water level draw‐down (WLD) significantly increased gross photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration. Warming alone had insignificant impacts on the CO₂ exchange components, but when combined with WLD it further increased ecosystem respiration. In the southern fen, CO₂ uptake decreased due to WLD, which was amplified by warming, while at northern fen it remained stable. As a conclusion, our results suggest that a very small difference in the WLD may be decisive, whether the C sink of a fen decreases, or whether the system is able to adapt within its regime and maintain its functions. Moreover, the water table has a role in determining how much the increased temperature impacts the CO₂ exchange.     

The positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing of increasing methane emissions from a thawing boreal forest‐wetland landscape

At the southern margin of permafrost in North America, climate change causes widespread permafrost thaw. In boreal lowlands, thawing forested permafrost peat plateaus (‘forest’) lead to expansion of permafrost‐free wetlands (‘wetland’). Expanding wetland area with saturated and warmer organic soils is expected to increase landscape methane (CH₄) emissions. Here, we quantify the thaw‐induced increase in CH₄ emissions for a boreal forest‐wetland landscape in the southern Taiga Plains, Canada, and evaluate its impact on net radiative forcing relative to potential long‐term net carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange. Using nested wetland and landscape eddy covariance net CH₄ flux measurements in combination with flux footprint modeling, we find that landscape CH₄ emissions increase with increasing wetland‐to‐forest ratio. Landscape CH₄ emissions are most sensitive to this ratio during peak emission periods, when wetland soils are up to 10 °C warmer than forest soils. The cumulative growing season (May–October) wetland CH₄ emission of ~13 g CH₄ m^?2 is the dominating contribution to the landscape CH₄ emission of ~7 g CH₄ m^?2. In contrast, forest contributions to landscape CH₄ emissions appear to be negligible. The rapid wetland expansion of 0.26 ± 0.05% yr^?1 in this region causes an estimated growing season increase of 0.034 ± 0.007 g CH₄ m^?2 yr^?1 in landscape CH₄ emissions. A long‐term net CO₂ uptake of >200 g CO₂ m^?2 yr^?1 is required to offset the positive radiative forcing of increasing CH₄ emissions until the end of the 21st century as indicated by an atmospheric CH₄ and CO₂ concentration model. However, long‐term apparent carbon accumulation rates in similar boreal forest‐wetland landscapes and eddy covariance landscape net CO₂ flux measurements suggest a long‐term net CO₂ uptake between 49 and 157 g CO₂ m^?2 yr^?1. Thus, thaw‐induced CH₄ emission increases likely exert a positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing through the 21st century.     

Climate change implications of shifting forest management strategy in a boreal forest ecosystem of Norway

Empirical models alongside remotely sensed and station measured meteorological observations are employed to investigate both the local and global direct climate change impacts of alternative forest management strategies within a boreal ecosystem of eastern Norway. Stand‐level analysis is firstly executed to attribute differences in daily, seasonal, and annual mean surface temperatures to differences in surface intrinsic biophysical properties across conifer, deciduous, and clear‐cut sites. Relative to a conifer site, a slight local cooling of ?0.13 °C at a deciduous site and ?0.25 °C at a clear‐cut site were observed over a 6‐year period, which were mostly attributed to a higher albedo throughout the year. When monthly mean albedo trajectories over the entire managed forest landscape were taken into consideration, we found that strategies promoting natural regeneration of coniferous sites with native deciduous species led to substantial global direct climate cooling benefits relative to those maintaining current silviculture regimes – despite predicted long‐term regional warming feedbacks and a reduced albedo in spring and autumn months. The magnitude and duration of the cooling benefit depended largely on whether management strategies jointly promoted an enhanced material supply over business‐as‐usual levels. Expressed in terms of an equivalent CO₂ emission pulse at the start of the simulation, the net climate response at the end of the 21st century spanned ?8 to ?159 Tg‐CO₂‐eq., depending on whether near‐term harvest levels increased or followed current trends, respectively. This magnitude equates to approximately ?20 to ?300% of Norway's annual domestic (production) emission impact. Our analysis supports the assertion that a carbon‐only focus in the design and implementation of forest management policy in boreal and other climatically similar regions can be counterproductive – and at best – suboptimal if boreal forests are to be used as a tool to mitigate global warming.     

Simulating boreal forest dynamics from perspectives of ecophysiology,resource availability,and climate change

Boreal forests are under strong influences from climate change, and alterations in forest dynamics will have significant impacts on global climate-biosphere feedback as well as local to regional conservation and resource management. To understand the mechanisms of forest dynamics and to assess the fate of boreal forests, simulation studies should be based on plant ecophysiological responses onto environmental conditions. In central Canadian boreal forests, local geomorphology created by past glacial activities often generates a mosaic of very distinctive forest types. On sandy hilltop of a glacial till, due to limitations in moisture availability and short fire return intervals, drought-tolerant and fire-adapted jack pine usually becomes the dominant species. On mesic and nutrient-rich slopes, fast-growing and resource-demanding trembling aspen forms mixed forests with coniferous species. In bottomland, black spruce, slowly growing but tolerant species, is often the only species that can survive to the adult stage. These three very distinctive forest types often occur within a scale of 10 m. Simulation models of boreal forests should be able to reproduce this heterogeneity in forest structure and composition as an emergent property of plant ecophysiological responses to varying environmental properties. In this study, a process-based forest dynamics model, ecosystem demography model version 1.0, is used to mechanically reproduce the landscape heterogeneity due to edaphic variations. First, boreal tree species of northern Manitoba, Canada, are parameterized according to field observations, and, to explicitly capture interactions among tree saplings, allometric equations based on diameter at height of 0.15 m, instead of the conventional breast height of 1.37 m, is parameterized. Then, soil moisture regime and nutrient concentrations are statistically incorporated from a dataset. The resultant simulation successfully reproduces the distinctive forest dynamics influenced by the edaphic heterogeneity. The sequences of succession and the trajectories of forest development are generally consistent with the field observations. The differences in resource availability are the essential control on equilibrium values of total forest leaf area index. Next, to show the effect of anthropogenic atmospheric changes, changes in temperature and CO₂ concentrations are studied by a set of factorial experiments. The magnitude of CO₂ fertilization is largely affected by soil fertility. The temperature rise will increase the length of growing season, but can have a negative impact on forest growth by increasing aridity and autotrophic respiration. Overall, the boreal forest responses to climate change are complex due to the inherent edaphic variations and ecophysiological responses.     

Effects of global climatic warming on the boreal forest

On the basis of the predictions of the global climatic warming induced by anthropogenic activities, as provided by climatologists, current state of knowledge regarding possible ecological consequences of the warming on the boreal biome was discussed. A 600 to 700 km northward advance of the biome along with the warming was predicted. Such a shift could take place for half a century or so, which would be an unprecedentedly fast rate of progression. This might cause a serious disorder in species composition of the biome, particularly in the boundary regions. As to the carbon sink or source issues, considerable uncertainties and knowledge gaps existed. Elevated temperature and CO₂ levels would stimulate photosynthesis to result in an increase of CO₂ uptake, while the temperature increase would promote decomposition of organic matter especially that stored in the soils to release CO₂ to the atmosphere. Behaviors of northern peat bogs, whereca. 700 Gt of organic matter was thought to be accumulated, would seriously affect the balance. However, overall ecosystematic carbon balance was yet to be fully studied. It was realized that multifunctional approaches needed to be developed so as to integrate pieces of various information into a holistic picture. Need for international collaboration research efforts was also addressed.     

Impact of Future Climate on Radial Growth of Four Major Boreal Tree Species in the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010–2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.     

Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest–wetland landscape

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw‐induced collapse‐scar bog (‘wetland’) expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape‐scale net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE_LAND), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEE_LAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature‐ and light‐limited NEE_LAND of a boreal forest–wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEE_LAND (?20 g C m^?2) and wetland NEE (?24 g C m^?2) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEE_LAND. In contrast, we find non‐negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEE_LAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light‐limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year‐round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO₂ uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO₂ uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m^?2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m^?2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO₂ uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO₂ uptake of boreal forest–wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO₂ sources under continued anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. We conclude that NEE_LAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts.     

Stable carbon isotope analysis reveals widespread drought stress in boreal black spruce forests

Unprecedented rates of climate warming over the past century have resulted in increased forest stress and mortality worldwide. Decreased tree growth in association with increasing temperatures is generally accepted as a signal of temperature‐induced drought stress. However, variations in tree growth alone do not reveal the physiological mechanisms behind recent changes in tree growth. Examining stable carbon isotope composition of tree rings in addition to tree growth can provide a secondary line of evidence for physiological drought stress. In this study, we examined patterns of black spruce growth and carbon isotopic composition in tree rings in response to climate warming and drying in the boreal forest of interior Alaska. We examined trees at three nested scales: landscape, toposequence, and a subsample of trees within the toposequence. At each scale, we studied the potential effects of differences in microclimate and moisture availability by sampling on northern and southern aspects. We found that black spruce radial growth responded negatively to monthly metrics of temperature at all examined scales, and we examined ?¹³C responses on a subsample of trees as representative of the wider region. The negative ?¹³C responses to temperature reveal that black spruce trees are experiencing moisture stress on both northern and southern aspects. Contrary to our expectations, ?¹³C from trees on the northern aspect exhibited the strongest drought signal. Our results highlight the prominence of drought stress in the boreal forest of interior Alaska. We conclude that if temperatures continue to warm, we can expect drought‐induced productivity declines across large regions of the boreal forest, even for trees located in cool and moist landscape positions.     

Effects of nutrition and soil warming on stemwood production in a boreal Norway spruce stand

The boreal forest is expected to experience the greatest warming of all forest biomes. The extent of the boreal forest, the large amount of carbon contained in the soil, and the expected climate warming, make the boreal forest a key biome to understand and represent correctly in global carbon models. It has been suggested that an increase in temperature could stimulate the release of CO₂ caused by an increased decomposition rate, more than biomass production, which could convert current carbon sinks into carbon sources. Most boreal forests are currently carbon sinks, but it is unclear for how long in the future the carbon sink capacity of the boreal forest is likely to be maintained. The impact of soil warming on stem volume growth was studied during 6 years, in irrigated (I) and irrigated‐fertilized (IL) stands of 40‐year‐old Norway spruce in Northern Sweden. From May to October heating cables were used to maintain the soil temperature on heated‐irrigated plots (Ih and ILh) 5 °C above that on unheated control plots (Ic and ILc). After six seasons' warming, stem volume production (m³ ha^?1 a^?1) was 115% higher on Ih than on unheated (Ic) plots, and on heated and irrigated‐fertilized plots (ILh) it was 57% higher than on unheated plots (ILc). The results indicate that in a future warmer climate, an increased availability of nitrogen, combined with a longer growing season, may increase biomass production substantially, on both low‐ and high‐fertility sites. It is, however, too early to decide whether the observed responses are transitory or long lasting. It is therefore crucial to gain a better understanding of the responses of boreal forest ecosystems to climate change, and to provide data to test and validate models used in predicting the impact of climate change.     

Physiological acclimation dampens initial effects of elevated temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration in mature boreal Norway spruce

Physiological processes of terrestrial plants regulate the land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, water, and energy, yet few studies have explored the acclimation responses of mature boreal conifer trees to climate change. Here we explored the acclimation responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal conductance to elevated temperature and/or CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]) in a 3‐year field experiment with mature boreal Norway spruce. We found that elevated [CO₂] decreased photosynthetic carboxylation capacity (?23% at 25 °C) and increased shoot respiration (+64% at 15 °C), while warming had no significant effects. Shoot respiration, but not photosynthetic capacity, exhibited seasonal acclimation. Stomatal conductance at light saturation and a vapour pressure deficit of 1 kPa was unaffected by elevated [CO₂] but significantly decreased (?27%) by warming, and the ratio of intercellular to ambient [CO₂] was enhanced (+17%) by elevated [CO₂] and decreased (?12%) by warming. Many of these responses differ from those typically observed in temperate tree species. Our results show that long‐term physiological acclimation dampens the initial stimulation of plant net carbon assimilation to elevated [CO₂], and of plant water use to warming. Models that do not account for these responses may thus overestimate the impacts of climate change on future boreal vegetation–atmosphere interactions.     

The interactive effects of temperature and light on biological nitrogen fixation in boreal forests

Plant productivity is predicted to increase in northern latitudes as a result of climate warming; however, this may depend on whether biological nitrogen (N)-fixation also increases. We evaluated how the variation in temperature and light affects N-fixation by two boreal feather mosses, Pleurozium schreberi and Hylocomium splendens, which are the primary source of N-fixation in most boreal environments. We measured N-fixation rates 2 and 4 wk after exposure to a factorial combination of environments of normal, intermediate and high temperature (16.3, 22.0 and 30.3°C) and light (148.0, 295.7 and 517.3 μmol m(-2) s(-1)). Our results showed that P. schreberi achieved higher N-fixation rates relative to H. splendens in response to warming treatments, but that the highest warming treatment eventually caused N-fixation to decline for both species. Light strongly interacted with warming treatments, having positive effects at low or intermediate temperatures and damaging effects at high temperatures. These results suggest that climate warming may increase N-fixation in boreal forests, but that increased shading by the forest canopy or the occurrence of extreme temperature events could limit increases. They also suggest that P. schreberi may become a larger source of N in boreal forests relative to H. splendens as climate warming progresses.     

Simulating the Effects of Fire Reintroduction Versus Continued Fire Absence on Forest Composition and Landscape Structure in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, Northern Minnesota, USA

The Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) Wilderness of northern Minnesota, USA, ememplifies how fire management and natural disturbance determine forest composition and landscape structure at a broad scale. Historically, the BWCA (>400,000 ha) was subject to crown fires with a mean rotation period of 50–100 y. Fires often overlapped, creating a mosaic of differently aged stands with many stands burning frequently or, alternatively, escaping fire for several centuries. The BWCA may never have reached a steady-state (defined as a stable landscape age-class structure). In the early 1900s, a diminished fire regime began creating a more demographically diverse forest, characterized by increasingly uneven-aged stands. Shade-tolerant species typical of the region began replacing the shade-intolerant species that composed the fire-generated even-aged stands. Red pine (Pinus resinosa) stands are relatively uncommon in the BWCA today and are of special concern. The replacement of early-to-midsuccessional species is occurring at the scale of individual gaps, producing mixed-species multiaged forests. We used LANDIS, a spatially explicit forest landscape model, to investigate the long-term consequences of fire reintroduction or continuing fire absence on forest composition and landscape structure. Fire reintroduction was evaluated at three potential mean fire rotation periods (FRP): 50,100, and 300 y. Our model scenarios predict that if fire reintroduction mimics the natural fire regime (bracketed by FRP = 50 and 100 y), it will be most successful at preserving the original species composition and landscape structure, although jack pine (Pinus banksiana) may require special management. With limited fire reintroduction, all of the extant species are retained although species dominance and landscape structure will be substantially altered. If fire remains absent, many fire-dependent species will be lost as local dominants, including red pine. The landscape appears to be in a state of rapid change and a shift in management to promote fire may need to be implemented soon to prevent further deviation from historic, presettlement conditions.     

Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests

Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual‐based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer‐dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.     

气候变化和不同强度造林对大兴安岭主要树种林分信息和地上生物量的长期影响

气候变化及相应火干扰在不同尺度上影响着我国大兴安岭地区森林动态,且在未来的影响可能继续加剧。为了提高森林生态功能和应对气候变暖,国家在分类经营基础上全面实施抚育采伐和补植造林,效果较好,但抚育采伐对森林主要树种的长期影响知之甚少,其在未来气候下的可持续性也有待进一步评估,同时,探讨造林措施对未来森林的影响也显得尤为重要。本文运用森林景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟气候变化及火干扰、采伐和造林对大兴安岭地区主要树种的长期影响。结果表明:1)模型初始化、短期和长期模拟结果均得到了有效验证,模拟结果与森林调查数据之间无显著性差异(P0.05),基于火烧迹地数据的林火干扰验证亦能够反映当前火干扰的效果,模型模拟结果的可信度较高;2)与当前气候相比,气候变暖及火干扰明显改变了树种组成、年龄结构和地上生物量,B1气候下研究区森林基本上以针叶树种为主要树种,A2气候下优势树种向阔叶树转变;3)与无采伐预案相比,当前气候下,抚育采伐使落叶松的林分密度和地上生物量分别降低了(165±94.9)株/hm~2和(8.5±5.1) Mg/hm~2,增加了樟子松、白桦和云杉等树木株数和地上生物量(3.3—753.4株/hm~2和0.2—4.0 Mg/hm~2),而对山杨的影响较小;B1和A2气候下抚育采伐显著改变林分密度,降低景观尺度地上生物量,进而表现为不可持续;4)B1气候下,推荐实施中低强度造林预案(10%和20%强度),在A2气候下,各强度造林均可在模拟后期增加树种地上生物量。     

The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO₂ and CH₄ could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process‐based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS‐TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005–2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water‐table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO₂ emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios.