Historical comparisons reveal multiple drivers of decadal change of an ecosystem engineer at the range edge

Biogenic reefs are important for habitat provision and coastal protection. Long‐term datasets on the distribution and abundance of Sabellaria alveolata (L.) are available from Britain. The aim of this study was to combine historical records and contemporary data to (1) describe spatiotemporal variation in winter temperatures, (2) document short‐term and long‐term changes in the distribution and abundance of S. alveolata and discuss these changes in relation to extreme weather events and recent warming, and (3) assess the potential for artificial coastal defense structures to function as habitat for S. alveolata. A semi‐quantitative abundance scale (ACFOR) was used to compare broadscale, long‐term and interannual abundance of S. alveolata near its range edge in NW Britain. S. alveolata disappeared from the North Wales and Wirral coastlines where it had been abundant prior to the cold winter of 1962/1963. Population declines were also observed following the recent cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Extensive surveys in 2004 and 2012 revealed that S. alveolata had recolonized locations from which it had previously disappeared. Furthermore, it had increased in abundance at many locations, possibly in response to recent warming. S. alveolata was recorded on the majority of artificial coastal defense structures surveyed, suggesting that the proliferation of artificial coastal defense structures along this stretch of coastline may have enabled S. alveolata to spread across stretches of unsuitable natural habitat. Long‐term and broadscale contextual monitoring is essential for monitoring responses of organisms to climate change. Historical data and gray literature can be invaluable sources of information. Our results support the theory that Lusitanian species are responding positively to climate warming but also that short‐term extreme weather events can have potentially devastating widespread and lasting effects on organisms. Furthermore, the proliferation of coastal defense structures has implications for phylogeography, population genetics, and connectivity of coastal populations.     

Climate-driven range extension of a sea urchin: inferring future trends by analysis of recent population dynamics

Patterns of climate-forced range shift in the marine environment are informed by investigating the population dynamics of an ecologically important sea urchin ( Centrostephanus rodgersii – Diadematidae) across its newly extended range in Tasmania (southeastern Australia). A growth model of C. rodgersii is developed allowing estimation of a sea urchin age profile and, in combination with abundance data, we correlate the sea urchin population dynamic with respect to environmental signals across the range extension region. Growth patterns did not vary across the extension region; however, there was a strong pattern of decreasing sea urchin age with increasing distance from the historic range. The sequential poleward discovery of the sea urchin, a pattern of declining age and a general poleward reduction in abundance along the eastern Tasmanian coastline are consistent with a model of range extension driven by recent change in patterns of larval dispersal. We explore this hypothesis by correlating C. rodgersii population characteristics with respect to the East Australian Current (EAC), i.e. the chief vector for poleward larval dispersal, and reveal patterns of declining sea urchin age and abundance with increasing distance from this oceanic feature. Furthermore, C. rodgersii is generally limited to sites where average winter temperatures are warmer than the cold threshold for its larval development. Potential dispersal and physiological mechanisms defining the range extension appear to be strongly coupled to the EAC which has undergone recent poleward advance and resulted in coastal warming in eastern Tasmania. Predicted climate change conditions for this region will favour continued population expansion of C. rodgersii not only via atmospheric-forced ocean warming, but also via ongoing intensification of the EAC driving continued poleward supply of larvae and heat.     

Biogeographic responses of the copepod Calanus glacialis to a changing Arctic marine environment

Dramatic changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean over the past few decades, especially in terms of sea ice loss and ocean warming. Those environmental changes may modify the planktonic ecosystem with changes from lower to upper trophic levels. This study aimed to understand how the biogeographic distribution of a crucial endemic copepod species, Calanus glacialis, may respond to both abiotic (ocean temperature) and biotic (phytoplankton prey) drivers. A copepod individual‐based model coupled to an ice‐ocean‐biogeochemical model was utilized to simulate temperature‐ and food‐dependent life cycle development of C. glacialis annually from 1980 to 2014. Over the 35‐year study period, the northern boundaries of modeled diapausing C. glacialis expanded poleward and the annual success rates of C. glacialis individuals attaining diapause in a circumpolar transition zone increased substantially. Those patterns could be explained by a lengthening growth season (during which time food is ample) and shortening critical development time (the period from the first feeding stage N3 to the diapausing stage C4). The biogeographic changes were further linked to large‐scale oceanic processes, particularly diminishing sea ice cover, upper ocean warming, and increasing and prolonging food availability, which could have potential consequences to the entire Arctic shelf/slope marine ecosystems.     

Impacts of climate on prey abundance account for fluctuations in a population of a northern wader at the southern edge of its range

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate change will affect animal populations is vital for adaptive management. Many studies have described changes in the timing of biological events, which can produce phenological mismatch. Direct effects on prey abundance might also be important, but have rarely been studied. We examine the likely importance of variation in prey abundance in driving the demographics of a European golden plover ( Pluvialis apricaria ) population at its southern range margin. Previous studies have correlated plover productivity with the abundance of their adult cranefly (Tipulidae) prey, and modelled the phenology of both plover breeding and cranefly emergence in relation to temperature. Our analyses demonstrate that abundance of adult craneflies is correlated with August temperature in the previous year. Correspondingly, changes in the golden plover population are negatively correlated with August temperature 2 years earlier. Predictions of annual productivity, based on temperature-mediated reductions in prey abundance, closely match observed trends. Modelled variation in annual productivity for a future scenario of increasing August temperatures predicts a significant risk of extinction of the golden plover population over the next 100 years, depending upon the magnitude of warming. Direct effects of climate warming upon cranefly populations may therefore cause northward range contractions of golden plovers, as predicted by climate envelope modelling. Craneflies are an important food source for many northern and upland birds, and our results are likely to have wide relevance to these other species. Research into the potential for habitat management to improve the resilience of cranefly populations to high temperature should be an urgent priority.     

Winter climate change and the poleward range expansion of a tropical invasive tree (Brazilian pepper—Schinus terebinthifolius)

Winter climate change is expected to lead to the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems, where tropical species expand poleward in response to a decrease in the intensity and duration of winter temperature extremes (i.e., freeze events). In the southeastern United States, freezing temperatures control the northern range limits of many invasive nonnative species. Here, we examine the influence of freezing temperatures and winter climate change on the northern range limits of an invasive nonnative tree—Schinus terebinthifolius (Brazilian pepper). Since introduction in the 1800s, Brazilian pepper has invaded ecosystems throughout south and central Florida to become the state's most widespread nonnative plant species. Although Brazilian pepper is sensitive to freezing temperatures, temperature controls on its northern distribution have not been adequately quantified. We used temperature and plant occurrence data to quantify the sensitivity of Brazilian pepper to freezing temperatures. Then, we examined the potential for range expansion under three alternative future climate scenarios (+2°C, +4°C, and +6°C). Our analyses identify a strong nonlinear sigmoidal relationship between minimum temperature and Brazilian pepper presence, with a discrete threshold temperature occurring near ?11°C. Our future scenario analyses indicate that, in response to warming winter temperatures, Brazilian pepper is expected to expand northward and transform ecosystems in north Florida and across much of the Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic coasts of the United States. These results underscore the importance of early detection and rapid response efforts to identify and manage the northward invasion of Brazilian pepper in response to climate change. Looking more broadly, our work highlights the need to anticipate and prepare for the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by tropical invasive species.