Improving the Quality of Adult Mortality Data Collected in Demographic Surveys: Validation Study of a New Siblings' Survival Questionnaire in Niakhar,Senegal

Background

In countries with limited vital registration, adult mortality is frequently estimated using siblings'' survival histories (SSHs) collected during Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). These data are affected by reporting errors. We developed a new SSH questionnaire, the siblings'' survival calendar (SSC). It incorporates supplementary interviewing techniques to limit omissions of siblings and uses an event history calendar to improve reports of dates and ages. We hypothesized that the SSC would improve the quality of adult mortality data.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a retrospective validation study among the population of the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Senegal. We randomly assigned men and women aged 15–59 y to an interview with either the DHS questionnaire or the SSC. We compared SSHs collected in each group to prospective data on adult mortality collected in Niakhar. The SSC reduced respondents'' tendency to round reports of dates and ages to the nearest multiple of five or ten (“heaping”). The SSC also had higher sensitivity in recording adult female deaths: among respondents whose sister(s) had died at an adult age in the past 15 y, 89.6% reported an adult female death during SSC interviews versus 75.6% in DHS interviews (p = 0.027). The specificity of the SSC was similar to that of the DHS questionnaire, i.e., it did not increase the number of false reports of deaths. However, the SSC did not improve the reporting of adult deaths among the brothers of respondents. Study limitations include sample selectivity, limited external validity, and multiple testing.

Conclusions

The SSC has the potential to collect more accurate SSHs than the questionnaire used in DHS. Further research is needed to assess the effects of the SSC on estimates of adult mortality rates. Additional validation studies should be conducted in different social and epidemiological settings.

Trial Registration

Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN06849961 Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The Use of Surrogate Data in Demographic Population Viability Analysis: A Case Study of California Sea Lions

Reliable data necessary to parameterize population models are seldom available for imperiled species. As an alternative, data from populations of the same species or from ecologically similar species have been used to construct models. In this study, we evaluated the use of demographic data collected at one California sea lion colony (Los Islotes) to predict the population dynamics of the same species from two other colonies (San Jorge and Granito) in the Gulf of California, Mexico, for which demographic data are lacking. To do so, we developed a stochastic demographic age-structured matrix model and conducted a population viability analysis for each colony. For the Los Islotes colony we used site-specific pup, juvenile, and adult survival probabilities, as well as birth rates for older females. For the other colonies, we used site-specific pup and juvenile survival probabilities, but used surrogate data from Los Islotes for adult survival probabilities and birth rates. We assessed these models by comparing simulated retrospective population trajectories to observed population trends based on count data. The projected population trajectories approximated the observed trends when surrogate data were used for one colony but failed to match for a second colony. Our results indicate that species-specific and even region-specific surrogate data may lead to erroneous conservation decisions. These results highlight the importance of using population-specific demographic data in assessing extinction risk. When vital rates are not available and immediate management actions must be taken, in particular for imperiled species, we recommend the use of surrogate data only when the populations appear to have similar population trends.     

Demographic Strategy in a Brown Trout Population in Western Norway1

(1) The individuals in the densely populated stock of brown trout, Salmo trutta L., living in Lake Lane and Stranda River, are small, mature at an early age, and have a relatively short life span. Such a demographic strategy appears favourable for populations having a large, but physically unstable spawning and nursery area, intense competition for food, and little vertebrate predation except for human exploitation. (2) For females, the age of sexual maturation appears largely dependent on growth-rate, size, and survival-rate of the fish. Males do not appear to have the advantage of a corresponding large body size. They mature when smaller and at more varying ages than the females, although the two sexes have almost identical growth-rates. (3) Sexually mature fish have higher condition coefficients than immature ones, which is probably an adaptation to ensure gonadal development and enhance the prospect of reproductive success. (4) Mortality appears to be largely dependent on the age when the fish achieve sexual maturation. Most individuals seem to die after their first spawning season. Females show a delay of one year in their sexual maturation relative to males. This adaptation gives protection to the females.     

Demographic Sensitivity of Population Change in Northern Bobwhite

Abstract: The northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) is an economically important gamebird that is currently undergoing widespread population declines. Despite considerable research on the population ecology of bobwhites, there have been few attempts to model population dynamics of bobwhites to determine the contributions of different demographic parameters to variance of the finite rate of population change (Λ). We conducted a literature review and compiled 405 estimates of 9 demographic parameters from 49 field studies of bobwhites. To identify demographic parameters that might be important for management, we used life-stage simulation analyses (LSA) to examine sensitivity of Λ to simulated variation in 9 demographic parameters for female bobwhites. In a baseline LSA based on uniform distributions bounded by the range of estimates for each demographic parameter, bobwhite populations were predicted to decline (Λ = 0.56) and winter survival of adults made the greatest contribution to variance of Λ (r² = 0.453), followed by summer survival of adults (r² = 0.163), and survival of chicks (r² = 0.120). Population change was not sensitive to total clutch laid, nest survival, egg hatchability, or 3 parameters associated with the number of nesting attempts (r²<0.06). Our conclusions were robust to alternative simulation scenarios, and parameter rankings changed only if we adjusted the lower bounds of winter survival upwards. Bobwhite populations were not viable with survival rates reported from most field studies. Survival rates may be depressed below sustainable levels by environmental conditions or possibly by impacts of capture and telemetry methods. Overall, our simulation results indicate that management practices that improve seasonal survival rates will have the greatest potential benefit for recovery of declining populations of bobwhites.     

Community-Wide Health Risk Assessment Using Geographically Resolved Demographic Data: A Synthetic Population Approach

Background

Evaluating environmental health risks in communities requires models characterizing geographic and demographic patterns of exposure to multiple stressors. These exposure models can be constructed from multivariable regression analyses using individual-level predictors (microdata), but these microdata are not typically available with sufficient geographic resolution for community risk analyses given privacy concerns.

Methods

We developed synthetic geographically-resolved microdata for a low-income community (New Bedford, Massachusetts) facing multiple environmental stressors. We first applied probabilistic reweighting using simulated annealing to data from the 2006–2010 American Community Survey, combining 9,135 microdata samples from the New Bedford area with census tract-level constraints for individual and household characteristics. We then evaluated the synthetic microdata using goodness-of-fit tests and by examining spatial patterns of microdata fields not used as constraints. As a demonstration, we developed a multivariable regression model predicting smoking behavior as a function of individual-level microdata fields using New Bedford-specific data from the 2006–2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, linking this model with the synthetic microdata to predict demographic and geographic smoking patterns in New Bedford.

Results

Our simulation produced microdata representing all 94,944 individuals living in New Bedford in 2006–2010. Variables in the synthetic population matched the constraints well at the census tract level (e.g., ancestry, gender, age, education, household income) and reproduced the census-derived spatial patterns of non-constraint microdata. Smoking in New Bedford was significantly associated with numerous demographic variables found in the microdata, with estimated tract-level smoking rates varying from 20% (95% CI: 17%, 22%) to 37% (95% CI: 30%, 45%).

Conclusions

We used simulation methods to create geographically-resolved individual-level microdata that can be used in community-wide exposure and risk assessment studies. This approach provides insights regarding community-scale exposure and vulnerability patterns, valuable in settings where policy can be informed by characterization of multi-stressor exposures and health risks at high resolution.     

Demographic Changes over Thirty Years in a Red Howler Population in Venezuela

During a 30-year span (1969–1999) the annual growth rate of a Venezuelan red howler (Alouatta seniculus) population fluctuated irregularly, but its size increased, remained stable for a short while, and finally declined sharply. The increase took place in three stages, and began as an increase in the size of established groups. The next two stages of population increase were due to the formation of new groups and their subsequent increases in size. These two stages likely occurred because of habitat regeneration, which increased the areas where newly formed groups could establish home ranges. The population decline of 74% was most likely due to disease. However, new groups died out more rapidly than established groups, indicating that food shortages, especially in recently regenerated areas, may also have contributed to the population crash. The food shortages could have been caused by unpredictable periods of drought, which may explain the irregular size fluctuations of the study population. Since many howler species show irregular size fluctuations and sharp declines, their demographic features may reflect adaptations to unpredictable events like droughts and disease epidemics. On this premise we explain the preponderance of unimale groups and female-biased birth sex ratios at low densities and the dispersal of both sexes as adaptations for increasing a population rapidly after a decline. Within the population, mortality of small juvenile females was higher in multimale than in unimale groups, though medium juvenile and older immature females were better represented in multimale than in unimale groups. These results may be explained in terms of group composition and the mating systems in red howlers.     

Validation of Catquest-9SF Questionnaire in a Chinese Cataract Population

Purpose

To develop and validate a Chinese version of the Catquest-9SF questionnaire in a cataract population.

Methods

The Catquest-9SF Questionnaire was translated and back translated into Chinese. Preoperative patients were recruited at a tertiary eye hospital and their demographic information and visual acuity were documented. Psychometric properties of the Catquest-9SF, including ordered thresholds, the ability to distinguish between different strata of person ability, absence of misfitting items, unidimentionality, differential item functioning (DIF) and construct validity were tested, using Rasch analysis.

Results

A total of 102 patients (100% response rate) were enrolled. The participants''mean age was 70.2 year (SD = 12.1) and 46.9% were female. Rasch analysis showed that this version of the questionnaire had ordered response thresholds and was free of DIF. The items fit a single overall construct and unidimensional by principal components analysis of the residuals. Patients with visual impairment had significantly poorer Rasch scores on the Catquest-9SF (mean change, -2.5, p = 0.035, compared with non-visually impaired patients).

Conclusion

The Chinese version of Catquest-9SF is a valid and reliable questionnaire for assessing the visual disability outcomes of Chinese patients with cataract, and it may be recommended for routine clinical use.     

A Novel Form of Progressive Retinal Atrophy in Swedish Vallhund Dogs

Inherited retinal degenerations, such as retinitis pigmentosa (RP) and age-related macular degeneration (AMD), represent leading causes of incurable blindness in humans. This is also true in dogs, where the term progressive retinal atrophy (PRA) is used to describe inherited photoreceptor degeneration resulting in progressive vision loss. Because of the similarities in ocular anatomy, including the presence of a cone photoreceptor-rich central retinal region, and the close genotype-phenotype correlation, canine models contribute significantly to the understanding of retinal disease mechanisms and the development of new therapies. The screening of the pure-bred dog population for new forms of PRA represents an important strategy to establish new large animal models. By examining 324 dogs of the Swedish vallhund breed in seven countries and across three continents, we were able to describe a new and unique form of PRA characterized by the multifocal appearance of red and brown discoloration of the tapetal fundus followed over time by thinning of the retina. We propose three stages of the disease based on the appearance of the ocular fundus and associated visual deficits. Electroretinography revealed a gradual loss of both rod and cone photoreceptor-mediated function in Stages 2 and 3 of the disease. In the few dogs that suffered from pronounced vision loss, night-blindness occurred first in late Stage 2, followed by decreased day-vision in Stage 3. Histologic examinations confirmed the loss of photoreceptor cells at Stage 3, which was associated with the accumulation of autofluorescent material in the adjacent retinal pigment epithelium. Pedigree analysis was suggestive of an autosomal-recessive mode of inheritance. Mutations in six known canine retinal degeneration genes as well as hypovitaminosis E were excluded as causes of the disease. The observed variability in the age of disease onset and rate of progression suggest the presence of genetic and/or environmental disease modifiers.     

Demographic Analysis of a Disjunct Population of Froelichia floridana in the mid-Ohio River Valley

Froelichia floridana (cottonweed) occurs as a disjunct population along the Ohio River in southeastern Ohio. The anomalous occurrence of F. floridana in this area has led to its designation as a state endangered species and a management regime to maintain the habitat conditions in which it occurs. As part of this effort, a restoration site was established on public lands in 1984 from seed collected in areas threatened by development. This study seeks to determine the demographic characteristics of this species in the restored and non‐restored managed sites to provide basic ecological information regarding life history parameters and to judge the effectiveness of the restoration. For two years (1997–1998) we collected information on seed bank abundance, field seed germination, plant survivorship, and seed production to create a stage‐based transition matrix model. The model suggests that population growth and abundance as assayed by λ (rate of increase) are stable to declining and are similar between the restoration and natural sites. A reduction in competition had a positive effect on population growth. Elasticity analysis showed that plants germinating earlier in the spring and becoming established as an early cohort contributed a greater level of reproductive output than plants germinating in late spring. Lowered population growth for 1997 is attributed to a cooler and dryer than average early spring that delayed germination and subsequent seed production. Elasticity analysis also suggested that the presence of a persistent seed bank was crucial for long‐term population maintenance and may allow for recovery in areas of low aboveground abundance through soil manipulation.     

Population Status of Two Wedgefish Species in Western Indonesian Inner Waters,Inferred from Demographic Models with Limited Data

Journal of Ichthyology - Wedgefish (family Rhinidae) is a group of elasmobranchs that experience a global threat due to its highly valued fins. Similar condition happens to most species of...     

Prevalence of Antibodies to Neospora caninum and Toxoplasma gondii in Swedish Dogs

Neospora caninum is a newly described coccidian parasite which has been found in various species such as the dog, cattle, horse, sheep and goat. Morphologically it resembles Toxoplasma gondii with which it is related (Holmdahl et al. 1994), and with which it has earlier been confused. The life cycle of N caninum is only partially known. Tachyzoites and tissue cysts are the only known stages of the parasite, and transplacental transmission is the only known route of infection. Subclini-cally infected dams can transmit the parasite to their fetuses and successive offspring from the same mother might be born infected (Dubey et al. 1990b). Clinical neosporosis is mostly seen in pups or young dogs, and the majority or all pups in a litter are often affected. The disease is characterized by ascending paralysis of the legs, with the hind legs more severely affected than the front legs, paralysis of the jaw, difficulty in swallowing and muscle flaccidity and atrophy (Dubey 1992, Dubey & Lindsay 1993). Fatal infections with N caninum in dogs have been reported from many countries, e.g. Norway (Bjerkäs & Presthus 1988), USA (Dubey et al. 1988), Sweden (Uggla et al. 1989a,b) and the United Kingdom (Dubey et al. 1990a). Serological surveys for antibodies to N. caninum in dogs from Kansas, USA and England have shown a prevalence of 2 and 13%, respectively (Lindsay et al. 1990, Trees et al. 1993).     

Genetic Demographic Survey of the Gagauz Population of Moldova

The genetic demographic structure of the Gagauz population of Moldova has been described for the first time. Data of interviews and official records have been used to analyze the sex and age structure of the population and marriage relationships, as well as to estimate the effective sizes of the populations of six settlements and selection intensity (according to Crow's formula). The demographic data indicate that social transformations have substantially affected the genetic demographic parameters of the population. The gene exchange rate per generation has been determined (m = 0.0204 in 1972 and m= 0.0309 in 1997). The estimated ratio between the components of Crow's index (I _m < I _f) in the Gagauz population is similar to those for the populations of developed countries with traditionally rural lifestyles. The study of marriage relationships of the Gagauz population has shown that Gagauzes are intensely mixing with Moldovans, Bulgarians, Russians, and Ukrainians.     

Simulating Free-Roaming Cat Population Management Options in Open Demographic Environments

Large populations of free-roaming cats (FRCs) generate ongoing concerns for welfare of both individual animals and populations, for human public health, for viability of native wildlife populations, and for local ecological damage. Managing FRC populations is a complex task, without universal agreement on best practices. Previous analyses that use simulation modeling tools to evaluate alternative management methods have focused on relative efficacy of removal (or trap-return, TR), typically involving euthanasia, and sterilization (or trap-neuter-return, TNR) in demographically isolated populations. We used a stochastic demographic simulation approach to evaluate removal, permanent sterilization, and two postulated methods of temporary contraception for FRC population management. Our models include demographic connectivity to neighboring untreated cat populations through natural dispersal in a metapopulation context across urban and rural landscapes, and also feature abandonment of owned animals. Within population type, a given implementation rate of the TR strategy results in the most rapid rate of population decline and (when populations are isolated) the highest probability of population elimination, followed in order of decreasing efficacy by equivalent rates of implementation of TNR and temporary contraception. Even low levels of demographic connectivity significantly reduce the effectiveness of any management intervention, and continued abandonment is similarly problematic. This is the first demographic simulation analysis to consider the use of temporary contraception and account for the realities of FRC dispersal and owned cat abandonment.     

Demographic Processes Drive Increases in Wildlife Disease following Population Reduction

Population reduction is often used as a control strategy when managing infectious diseases in wildlife populations in order to reduce host density below a critical threshold. However, population reduction can disrupt existing social and demographic structures leading to changes in observed host behaviour that may result in enhanced disease transmission. Such effects have been observed in several disease systems, notably badgers and bovine tuberculosis. Here we characterise the fundamental properties of disease systems for which such effects undermine the disease control benefits of population reduction.By quantifying the size of response to population reduction in terms of enhanced transmission within a generic non-spatial model, the properties of disease systems in which such effects reduce or even reverse the disease control benefits of population reduction are identified. If population reduction is not sufficiently severe, then enhanced transmission can lead to the counter intuitive perturbation effect, whereby disease levels increase or persist where they would otherwise die out. Perturbation effects are largest for systems with low levels of disease, e.g. low levels of endemicity or emerging disease.Analysis of a stochastic spatial meta-population model of demography and disease dynamics leads to qualitatively similar conclusions. Moreover, enhanced transmission itself is found to arise as an emergent property of density dependent dispersal in such systems. This spatial analysis also shows that, below some threshold, population reduction can rapidly increase the area affected by disease, potentially expanding risks to sympatric species.Our results suggest that the impact of population reduction on social and demographic structures is likely to undermine disease control in many systems, and in severe cases leads to the perturbation effect. Social and demographic mechanisms that enhance transmission following population reduction should therefore be routinely considered when designing control programmes.