The future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels under different scenarios

Climate and land-use changes are among the most important drivers of biodiversity loss and, moreover, their impacts on biodiversity are expected to increase further in the 21st century. In this study, the future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels (Spermophilus xanthoprymnus) was assessed. Accordingly, a hierarchical approach with two steps was used. First, ecological niche modelling was used to assess the impact of climate change in areas accessible to Anatolian ground squirrels through dispersal (i.e. the impact of climate change). Second, based on the habitat preferences of ground squirrels, land-use data were used to assess the impact of land-use change in suitable bioclimatic areas for Anatolian ground squirrels under present and future conditions (i.e. the combined impact of both changes). Also, priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels were identified based on in-situ climate change refugia. This study represents a first attempt to combine niche modelling and land-use data for a species in Anatolia, one of the most vulnerable regions to the drivers of biodiversity loss, because it is the region where three of biodiversity hotspots meet, and interact. Habitat suitability (i.e. suitable habitats across suitable bioclimatic areas) was projected to decline by 19–69% in the future (depending on the scenario), mainly due to the loss of suitable bioclimatic areas (47–77%, depending on the scenario) at lower elevations and in the western part of the central Anatolia and in the eastern Anatolia, suggesting that Anatolian ground squirrels will contract their range in the future, mainly due to climate change. Thus, in-situ climate change refugia were projected mainly in the eastern and southeastern parts of the central Anatolia, suggesting these regions as priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels.     

Natural antimicrobial systems and their potential in food preservation of the future

The extensive literature on natural antimicrobial systems in animals, plants, and microorganisms is surveyed and particular systems are discussed, viz., the peroxidase systems in saliva and milk, singlet oxygen in the phagosome, cecropins and attacins in insects, complement, lysozyme and, to a limited extent, phytoalexins. The review draws attention to the cardinal role of targets on the cell envelopes of alien cells, especially bacteria, and emphasizes a possible approach to preservation based on the selection of specific agents for particular targets. The available evidence suggests that the perturbation of the homeostasis of all the organisms in the mixed flora of a food is unlikely to be achieved by one antimicrobial substance in isolation. Future studies need to consider therefore a tandem approach with two or more agents chosen because of their complementary action. Alternatively, natural system(s) and an established preservative method, either chemical or physical, warrant investigation. The extensive literature on the mechanisms whereby specialist pathogens overcome the defenses of plants and animals emphasizes the inherent dangers of selection leading to the persistent contamination of food processing areas with organisms tolerant of a particular antimicrobial system.     

Cohort effects in red squirrels: the influence of density, food abundance and temperature on future survival and reproductive success

1. Environmental conditions experienced early in life may have long-lasting effects on individual performance, thereby creating 'silver-spoon effects'. 2. We used 15 years of data from a North American red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus Erxleben) population to investigate influences of food availability, density and spring temperature experienced early in life on reproduction and survival of female squirrels during adulthood. 3. We found that spring temperature and food availability did not affect female survival after 1 year of age, whereas higher squirrel densities led to lower survival, thereby affecting longevity and lifetime fitness. 4. In addition, both food availability experienced between birth and weaning, and spring temperature in the year of birth, had long-lasting positive effects on female reproductive success. These results emphasize the critical effect environmental conditions during the early life stages can have on the lifetime performance of small mammals. 5. These long-term effects of early food and temperature were apparent only once we controlled for conditions experienced during adulthood. This suggests that silver-spoon effects can be masked when conditions experienced early in life are correlated to some environmental conditions experienced later in life. 6. The general importance of silver-spoon effects for adult demographic performance might therefore be underestimated, and taking adult environment into account appears to be necessary when studying long-term cohort effects.     

Invasive crayfish reduce food limitation of alien American mink and increase their resilience to control

Trophic relationships between invasive species in multiply invaded ecosystems may reduce food limitation relative to more pristine ecosystems and increase resilience to control. Here, we consider whether invasive predatory American mink Neovison vison are trophically subsidized by invasive crayfish. We collated data from the literature on density and home range size of mink populations in relation to the prevalence of crayfish in the diet of mink. We then tested the hypothesis that populations of an invasive predator reach higher densities and are more resilient to lethal control when they have access to super-abundant non-native prey, even in the absence of changes in density dependence, hence compensatory capacity. We found a strong positive relationship between the proportion of crayfish in mink diet and mink population density, and a negative relationship between the proportion of crayfish in mink diet and mink home range size, with crayfish contribution to mink diet reflecting their abundance in the ecosystem. We then explored the consequence of elevated mink density by simulating a hypothetical eradication program with a constant harvest in a Ricker model. We found that mink populations were more resilient to harvest in the presence of crayfish. As a result, the simulated number of mink harvested to achieve eradication increased by 500 % in the presence of abundant crayfish if carrying capacity increased by 630 %. This led to a threefold increase in time to eradication under a constant harvest and an approximately 20-fold increase in the cumulative management cost. Our results add to evidence of inter-specific positive interactions involving invasive species, and our simple model illustrates how this increases management cost.     

The future of the global food system

Although food prices in major world markets are at or near a historical low, there is increasing concern about food security—the ability of the world to provide healthy and environmentally sustainable diets for all its peoples. This article is an introduction to a collection of reviews whose authors were asked to explore the major drivers affecting the food system between now and 2050. A first set of papers explores the main factors affecting the demand for food (population growth, changes in consumption patterns, the effects on the food system of urbanization and the importance of understanding income distributions) with a second examining trends in future food supply (crops, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and ‘wild food’). A third set explores exogenous factors affecting the food system (climate change, competition for water, energy and land, and how agriculture depends on and provides ecosystem services), while the final set explores cross-cutting themes (food system economics, food wastage and links with health). Two of the clearest conclusions that emerge from the collected papers are that major advances in sustainable food production and availability can be achieved with the concerted application of current technologies (given sufficient political will), and the importance of investing in research sooner rather than later to enable the food system to cope with both known and unknown challenges in the coming decades.     

未来气候变化情景下河南省粮食安全气候承载力评估

为探究未来气候变化对河南省粮食生产的影响,基于夏玉米和冬小麦两种主粮作物的生产潜力和气候资源承载力,结合1961—2017年河南省111个气象站的观测数据以及区域气候模式输出的2041—2080年RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种排放情景下的气象资料,采用农业生态区域法(AEZ模型)计算了河南省气候生产潜力及其变化特征,并根据不同生活水平下的粮食需求指标,分析了河南省的气候承载力和剩余空间。结果表明: 1961—2017年,河南省夏玉米气候生产潜力平均为18408.87 kg·hm^-2,表现为中东部高、西部低;与基准时段(1981—2010年)相比,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别下降13.0%和8.0%,高值中心由豫东地区向豫西南地区转移。1961—2017年,冬小麦气候生产潜力平均值为10889.79 kg·hm^-2,呈中部高、北部低;与基准时段相比,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别减少18.6%、21.7%。当前,在温饱水平和小康水平粮食需求条件下,最大气候资源承载力分别平均养活人口2.52亿和1.83亿。2070s(2071—2080年)最大气候资源承载力平均养活人口有所减少,与基准时段相比,RCP4.5情景下小康水平和温饱水平分别下降9.7%和18.4%,RCP8.5情景下小康水平和温饱水平分别下降7.7%和16.6%。当前气候条件下,河南省气候资源相对剩余率在-93.0%～356.9%,与基准时段相比,未来气候资源相对剩余率减少近40%。     

Effects of food abundance on genetic and maternal variation in the growth rate of juvenile red squirrels

Sources of variation in growth in body mass were assessed in natural and experimental conditions of high and low food abundance using reciprocal cross-fostering techniques and long-term data (1987-2002) for a population of North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). Growth rates were significantly higher in naturally good and food supplemented conditions, than in poor conditions. Mother-offspring resemblance was higher in poor conditions as a result of large increases in both the direct genetic variance and direct-maternal genetic covariance and a smaller increase in the coefficient of maternal variation. Furthermore, the genetic correlation across environments was significantly less than one indicating that sources of heritable variation differed between the two environments. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that selection has eroded heritable variation for growth more in good conditions and indicate the potential for independent adaptation of growth rates in good and poor conditions.     

Effect of delay and social distance on the perceived value of social interaction

Temporal discounting is a process by which the perceived value of an outcome decreases as delay increases. Social discounting is a process by which the perceived value of an outcome decreases as the social distance between the decision-maker and recipient increases. Both temporal and social discounting are well established for monetary outcomes. However, little is known regarding the effect of delay-to-occurrence or increased social distance on the perceived value of social interactions. The current study demonstrates that the decrease in perceived value for delayed social interactions is well described by the same hyperbola-like function used for monetary outcomes and that the rate of discounting decreases (indicating increased preference for larger, more delayed outcomes) as social distance increases. Conceptualizing the current discounting procedure as entailing both potential gains and losses, suggest that under certain circumstances, higher discount rates may not reflect increased preference.     

Resource exploitation strategies in the presence of traffic between food sources

A mathematical model of food recruitment and resource exploitation in group-living organisms accounting for direct traffic of individuals between the available sources is developed. It is shown that traffic between sources gives rise to the enhancement of the range of stability of the homogeneous mode of exploitation and of the range of coexistence of homogeneous and semi-inhomogeneous ones, as well as the appearance of symmetry breaking transitions leading to fully inhomogeneous exploitation modes.     

Gangliosides reduce leakage of aqueous-space markers from liposomes in the presence of human plasma

We have studied the role of glycolipids in reducing leakage of aqueous-space markers from liposomes, composed primarily of egg phosphatidylcholine, in the presence of human plasma. Liposomes were either small unilamellar (SUV) or large unilamellar (LUV). Leakage of liposome contents as affected by the incorporation into the liposomal bilayer of mono-, di-, or trisialogangliosides (GM, GD, GT) at different molar ratios in the presence or absence of cholesterol was examined. Leakage from liposomes decreased with increasing ganglioside sialic acid. Asialogangliosides had no effect on calcein leakage in the presence of plasma. The stabilizing effect of gangliosides and cholesterol was synergistic, and SUV containing 10 mol% GT and 33 mol% cholesterol had a half-life for leakage of calcein in plasma at 37 degrees C approaching 24 hours. LUV in the presence of plasma retained their contents longer than SUV, and gangliosides had an additional stabilizing effect. Phosphatidylserine and sulfatides were also capable of substituting for gangliosides in stabilizing liposomes to plasma-induced leakage. It appears that gangliosides stabilize liposomes in plasma at least in part through their ability to impart surface negative charge.     

The tumor suppressor p53 can reduce stable transfection in the presence of irradiation

The tumor suppressor p53 is believed to play an essential role in maintaining genome stability. Although it is currently unknown how p53 is involved in this important biological safeguard, several previous publications indicate that p53 can help to maintain genome integrity through the recombination-mediated DNA repair process. The integration of linearized plasmid DNA into the host chromosome utilizes the same repair process, and the frequency can be measured by clonogenic assays in which cells that were stably transfected by plasmid integration can be scored by their colony-forming abilities. To gain insight into whether p53 has a direct role in plasmid integration into the host chromosome, we determined the frequency of stable transfection with CHO cells expressing either wild-type or mutant p53 in the presence and absence of irradiation. We found that low-dose irradiation (50 to 100 cGy) increased stable transfection frequencies in CHO cells regardless of their p53 status. However, the increase of transfection frequency was significantly lower in CHO cells expressing wild-type p53. Our data thus suggest that wild-type p53 can suppress plasmid DNA integration into the host genome. This p53 function may play a direct and significant role in maintaining genome stability.     

Biofilm formation and the presence of the intercellular adhesion locus ica among staphylococci from food and food processing environments

In clinical staphylococci, the presence of the ica genes and biofilm formation are considered important for virulence. Biofilm formation may also be of importance for survival and virulence in food-related staphylococci. In the present work, staphylococci from the food industry were found to differ greatly in their abilities to form biofilms on polystyrene. A total of 7 and 21 of 144 food-related strains were found to be strong and weak biofilm formers, respectively. Glucose and sodium chloride stimulated biofilm formation. The biofilm-forming strains belonged to nine different coagulase-negative species of Staphylococcus. The icaA gene of the intercellular adhesion locus was detected by Southern blotting and hybridization in 38 of 67 food-related strains tested. The presence of icaA was positively correlated with strong biofilm formation. The icaA gene was partly sequenced for 22 food-related strains from nine different species of Staphylococcus, and their icaA genes were found to have DNA similarities to previously sequenced icaA genes of 69 to 100%. Northern blot analysis indicated that the expression of the ica genes was higher in strong biofilm formers than that seen with strains not forming biofilms. Biofilm formation on polystyrene was positively correlated with biofilm formation on stainless steel and with resistance to quaternary ammonium compounds, a group of disinfectants.     

Monitoring the presence of genetically modified food on the market of the Republic of Croatia

From the beginning of the human race people have been applying different methods to change the genetic material of either plants or animals in order to increase their yield as well as to improve the quality and quantity of food. Genetically modified organism (GMO) means an organism in which the genetic material has been altered in a way that does not occur naturally by mating and/or natural recombination. Analysing the presence of GMO in food is done by detecting the presence of either specific DNA sequences inserted in the genome of transgenic organism, or detecting proteins as a result of the expression of the inserted DNA. In this work food testing for the presence of genetically modified organisms was conducted during the period from 2004 to 2007 in the GMO laboratory of the Croatian National Institute of Public Health. According to the regulations, among the samples in which the presence of GMO was detected, all those which had more than 0.9% of GMO content were either rejected from the border or removed from the market, because such GM food has to be appropriately labelled. Among the food samples which were analysed in 2004: 127 (2.37%) of a total of 1226 samples contained more than 0.9% of GMOs; in 2005 there was only one in 512 (0.20%) samples in total; in 2006 there were 4 out of 404 samples (0.99%), and in 2007: 7 of a total of 655 samples (1.07%) had GMO content above the allowed threshold of 0.9%.