Global dynamics of a ratio-dependent predator-prey system

Recently, ratio-dependent predator-prey systems have been regarded by some researchers to be more appropriate for predator-prey interactions where predation involves serious searching processes. However, such models have set up a challenging issue regarding their dynamics near the origin since these models are not well-defined there. In this paper, the qualitative behavior of a class of ratio-dependent predator-prey system at the origin in the interior of the first quadrant is studied. It is shown that the origin is indeed a critical point of higher order. There can exist numerous kinds of topological structures in a neighborhood of the origin including the parabolic orbits, the elliptic orbits, the hyperbolic orbits, and any combination of them. These structures have important implications for the global behavior of the model. Global qualitative analysis of the model depending on all parameters is carried out, and conditions of existence and non-existence of limit cycles for the model are given. Computer simulations are presented to illustrate the conclusions.     

Rich dynamics of a hepatitis B viral infection model with logistic hepatocyte growth

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of human suffering, and a number of mathematical models have examined within-host dynamics of the disease. Most previous HBV infection models have assumed that: (a) hepatocytes regenerate at a constant rate from a source outside the liver; and/or (b) the infection takes place via a mass action process. Assumption (a) contradicts experimental data showing that healthy hepatocytes proliferate at a rate that depends on current liver size relative to some equilibrium mass, while assumption (b) produces a problematic basic reproduction number. Here we replace the constant infusion of healthy hepatocytes with a logistic growth term and the mass action infection term by a standard incidence function; these modifications enrich the dynamics of a well-studied model of HBV pathogenesis. In particular, in addition to disease free and endemic steady states, the system also allows a stable periodic orbit and a steady state at the origin. Since the system is not differentiable at the origin, we use a ratio-dependent transformation to show that there is a region in parameter space where the origin is globally stable. When the basic reproduction number, R ₀, is less than 1, the disease free steady state is stable. When R ₀ > 1 the system can either converge to the chronic steady state, experience sustained oscillations, or approach the origin. We characterize parameter regions for all three situations, identify a Hopf and a homoclinic bifurcation point, and show how they depend on the basic reproduction number and the intrinsic growth rate of hepatocytes.     

Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey Models of Interacting Populations

Ratio-dependent predator-prey models are increasingly favored by both the theoretical and experimental ecologists as a more suitable alternative to describe predator-prey interactions when the predators hunt seriously. In this article, the classical Bazykin’s model is modified with ratio-dependent functional response. Stability and bifurcation situations of the system are observed. Since the ratio-dependent model always has difficult dynamics in the vicinity of the origin, the analytical behavior of the system near origin is studied completely. It is found that paradox of enrichment can happen to this system under certain parameter values, although the functional response is ratio-dependent. The parametric space for Turing spatial structure is determined. We also conclude that competition among the predator population might be beneficial for predator species under certain circumstances. Finally, ecological interpretations of our results are presented in the discussion section.     

Impact of Allee effect on an eco-epidemiological system

In this paper, we propose a general ratio-dependent prey-predator model with disease in predator subject to the strong Allee effect in prey. We obtain the complete dynamics of both models: (a) full model with Allee effect; (b) full model without Allee effect. Model (a) may have more than one interior equilibrium point, but model (b) has only one interior equilibrium point. Numerical results reveal that the coexistence of all the populations at the endemic state is possible for both the models. But for the model with Allee effect, the coexistence can be destroyed by an increased supply of alternative food for the predators. It can also be proved that for the full model with Allee effect, the disease can be suppressed under certain parametric conditions. Also by comparing models (a) and (b), we conclude that Allee effect can create or destroy the interior attractor. Finally, we have studied the disease free-submodel (prey and susceptible predator model) with and without Allee effect. The comparative study between these two submodels leads to the following conclusions: 1) In the presence of Allee effect, the number of interior equilibrium points can change from zero to two whereas the submodel without Allee effect has unique interior equilibrium point; 2) Both with and without Allee effect, initial conditions play an important role on the survival and extinction of prey as well as its corresponding predator; 3) In the presence of Allee effect, bi-stability occurs with stable or periodic coexistence of prey and susceptible predator and the extinction of prey and susceptible predator; 4) Allee effect can generate or destroy the interior equilibrium points.     

Deriving reaction–diffusion models in ecology from interacting particle systems

We use a scaling procedure based on averaging Poisson distributed random variables to derive population level models from local models of interactions between individuals. The procedure is suggested by using the idea of hydrodynamic limits to derive reaction-diffusion models for population interactions from interacting particle systems. The scaling procedure is formal in the sense that we do not address the issue of proving that it converges; instead we focus on methods for computing the results of the scaling or deriving properties of rescaled systems. To that end we treat the scaling procedure as a transform, in analogy with the Laplace or Fourier transform, and derive operational formulas to aid in the computation of rescaled systems or the derivation of their properties. Since the limiting procedure is adapted from work by Durrett and Levin, we refer to the transform as the Durrett-Levin transform. We examine the effects of rescaling in various standard models, including Lotka-Volterra models, Holling type predator-prey models, and ratio-dependent models. The effects of scaling are mostly quantitative in models with smooth interaction terms, but ratio-dependent models are profoundly affected by the scaling. The scaling transforms ratio-dependent terms that are singular at the origin into smooth terms. Removing the singularity at the origin eliminates some of the unique dynamics that can arise in ratio-dependent models.Research partially supported by NSF grants DMS 99-73017 and DMS 02-11367     

The Ross-Macdonald model in a patchy environment

We generalize to n patches the Ross-Macdonald model which describes the dynamics of malaria. We incorporate in our model the fact that some patches can be vector free. We assume that the hosts can migrate between patches, but not the vectors. The susceptible and infectious individuals have the same dispersal rate. We compute the basic reproduction ratio R(0). We prove that if R(0)1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When R(0)>1, we prove that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable on the biological domain minus the disease-free equilibrium.     

具有年龄结构的食蚜蝇-蚜虫捕食模型

现有的具有年龄结构的捕食-食饵模型总是假设只有成年捕食者捕食猎物,这与实际情况不符。建立了一个幼年捕食者捕食食饵的具有年龄结构的食蚜蝇-蚜虫模型,应用微分方程定性理论,讨论了系统平衡点及其稳定性:其中平衡点E1(0,0,0)为不稳定的;满足一定条件时,边界平衡点E2(K,0,0)及正平衡点E3(x*,y1*,y2*)为局部渐近稳定的;且应用一致持续生存理论得到了系统永久持续生存的条件,为有害生物综合治理提供了理论依据。     

Multiple Limit Cycles in a Gause Type Predator–Prey Model with Holling Type III Functional Response and Allee Effect on Prey

This work aims to examine the global behavior of a Gause type predator–prey model considering two aspects: (i) the functional response is Holling type III and, (ii) the prey growth is affected by the Allee effect. We prove the origin of the system is an attractor equilibrium point for all parameter values. It has also been shown that it is the ω-limit of a wide set of trajectories of the system, due to the existence of a separatrix curve determined by the stable manifold of the equilibrium point (m,0), which is associated to the Allee effect on prey. When a weak Allee effect on the prey is assumed, an important result is obtained, involving the existence of two limit cycles surrounding a unique positive equilibrium point: the innermost cycle is unstable and the outermost stable. This property, not yet reported in models considering a sigmoid functional response, is an important aspect for ecologists to acknowledge as regards the kind of tristability shown here: (1) the origin; (2) an interior equilibrium; and (3) a limit cycle of large amplitude. These models have undoubtedly been rather sensitive to disturbances and require careful management in applied conservation and renewable resource contexts.     

Modelling of predator–prey trophic interactions. Part II: Three trophic levels

A general class of lumped parameter models describing the local dynamics of a tri-trophic chain in a controlled environment is analyzed in detail. The trophic functions characterizing the interactions are defined only by some properties and allow us to treat both prey-dependent and ratio-dependent models in a unified manner. Conditions for existence and stability of extinction and coexistence equilibrium states are determined. Some peculiar aspects of the dynamics of the system depending on the bioecological parameters are presented, with particular attention to bistability situations, limit cycles and chaotic behaviours.     

Consequences of ratio-dependent predation by wolves for elk population dynamics

A growing number of studies suggest ratio-dependence may be common in many predator–prey systems, yet in large mammal systems, evidence is limited to wolves and their prey in Isle Royale and Yellowstone. More importantly, the consequences of ratio-dependent predation have not been empirically examined to understand the implications for prey. Wolves recolonized Banff National Park in the early 1980s, and recovery was correlated with significant elk declines. I used time-series data of wolf kill rates of elk, wolf and elk densities in winter from 1985–2007 to test for support for prey-, ratio-, or predator dependent functional and numeric responses of wolf killing rate to elk density. I then combined functional and numeric responses to estimate the total predation response to identify potential equilibrium states. Evidence suggests wolf predation on elk was best described by a type II ratio-dependent functional response and a type II numeric response that lead to inversely density-dependent predation rate on elk. Despite support for ratio-dependence, like other wolf-prey systems, there was considerable uncertainty amongst functional response models, especially at low prey densities. Consistent with predictions from ratio-dependent models, however, wolves contributed to elk population declines of over 80 % in our Banff system. Despite the statistical signature for ratio-dependence, the biological mechanism remains unknown and may be related to multi-prey dynamics in our system. Regardless, ratio-dependent models strike a parsimonious balance between theory and empiricism, and this study suggests that large mammal ecologists need to consider ratio-dependent models in predator–prey dynamics.     

Global analysis of the Michaelis-Menten-type ratio-dependent predator-prey system

The recent broad interest on ratio-dependent based predator functional response calls for detailed qualitative study on ratio-dependent predator-prey differential systems. A first such attempt is documented in the recent work of Kuang and Beretta(1998), where Michaelis-Menten-type ratio-dependent model is studied systematically. Their paper, while contains many new and significant results, is far from complete in answering the many subtle mathematical questions on the global qualitative behavior of solutions of the model. Indeed, many of such important open questions are mentioned in the discussion section of their paper. Through a simple change of variable, we transform the Michaelis-Menten-type ratio-dependent model to a better studied Gause-type predator-prey system. As a result, we can obtain a complete classification of the asymptotic behavior of the solutions of the Michaelis-Menten-type ratio-dependent model. In some cases we can determine how the outcomes depend on the initial conditions. In particular, open questions on the global stability of all equilibria in various cases and the uniqueness of limit cycles are resolved. Biological implications of our results are also presented.     

Metapopulation dynamics with quasi-local competition

Stepping-stone models for the ecological dynamics of metapopulations are often used to address general questions about the effects of spatial structure on the nature and complexity of population fluctuations. Such models describe an ensemble of local and spatially isolated habitat patches that are connected through dispersal. Reproduction and hence the dynamics in a given local population depend on the density of that local population, and a fraction of every local population disperses to neighboring patches. In such models, interesting dynamic phenomena, e.g. the persistence of locally unstable predator-prey interactions, are only observed if the local dynamics in an isolated patch exhibit non-equilibrium behavior. Therefore, the scope of these models is limited. Here we extend these models by making the biologically plausible assumption that reproductive success in a given local habitat not only depends on the density of the local population living in that habitat, but also on the densities of neighboring local populations. This would occur if competition for resources occurs between neighboring populations, e.g. due to foraging in neighboring habitats. With this assumption of quasi-local competition the dynamics of the model change completely. The main difference is that even if the dynamics of the local populations have a stable equilibrium in isolation, the spatially uniform equilibrium in which all local populations are at their carrying capacity becomes unstable if the strength of quasi-local competition reaches a critical level, which can be calculated analytically. In this case the metapopulation reaches a new stable state, which is, however, not spatially uniform anymore and instead results in an irregular spatial pattern of local population abundance. For large metapopulations, a huge number of different, spatially non-uniform equilibrium states coexist as attractors of the metapopulation dynamics, so that the final state of the system depends critically on the initial conditions. The existence of a large number of attractors has important consequences when environmental noise is introduced into the model. Then the metapopulation performs a random walk in the space of all attractors. This leads to large and complicated population fluctuations whose power spectrum obeys a red-shifted power law. Our theory reiterates the potential importance of spatial structure for ecological processes and proposes new mechanisms for the emergence of non-uniform spatial patterns of abundance and for the persistence of complicated temporal population fluctuations.     

Nuclear androdioecy and gynodioecy

We formulate two single-locus Mendelian models, one for androdioecy and the other one for gynodioecy, each with 3 parameters: t the male (female) fertility rate of males (females) to hermaphrodites, s the fraction of the progeny derived from selfing; and g the fitness of inbreeders. Each model is expressed as a transformation of a 3 dimensional zygotic algebra, which we interpret as a rational map of the projective plane. We then study the dynamics for the evolution of each reproductive system; and compare our results with similar published models. In this process, we introduce a general concept of fitness and list some of its properties, obtaining a relative measure of population growth, computable as an eigenvalue of a mixed mating transformation for a population in equilibrium. Our results concur with previous models of the evolution of androdioecy and gynodioecy regarding the threshold values above which the sexual polymophism is stable, although the previous models assume constant the fraction of ovules from hermaphrodites that are self pollinated, while we assume constant the fraction of the progeny derived from selfing. A stable androdioecy requires more stringent conditions than a stable gynodioecy if the amount of pollen used for selfing is negligible in comparison with the total amount of pollen produced by hermaphrodites. Otherwise, both models are identical. We show explicitly that the genotype fitnesses depend linearly on their frequencies. Simulations show that any population not at equilibrium always converges to the equilibrium point of higher fitness. However, at intermediate steps, the fitness function occasionally decreases.     

Three stage semelparous Leslie models

Nonlinear Leslie matrix models have a long history of use for modeling the dynamics of semelparous species. Semelparous models, as do nonlinear matrix models in general, undergo a transcritical equilibrium bifurcation at inherent net reproductive number R ₀ = 1 where the extinction equilibrium loses stability. Semelparous models however do not fall under the purview of the general theory because this bifurcation is of higher co-dimension. This mathematical fact has biological implications that relate to a dichotomy of dynamic possibilities, namely, an equilibration with over lapping age classes as opposed to an oscillation in which age classes are periodically missing. The latter possibility makes these models of particular interest, for example, in application to the well known outbreaks of periodical insects. While the nature of the bifurcation at R ₀ = 1 is known for two-dimensional semelparous Leslie models, only limited results are available for higher dimensional models. In this paper I give a thorough accounting of the bifurcation at R ₀ = 1 in the three-dimensional case, under some monotonicity assumptions on the nonlinearities. In addition to the bifurcation of positive equilibria, there occurs a bifurcation of invariant loops that lie on the boundary of the positive cone. I describe the geometry of these loops, classify them into three distinct types, and show that they consist of either one or two three-cycles and heteroclinic orbits connecting (the phases of) these cycles. Furthermore, I determine stability and instability properties of these loops, in terms of model parameters, as well as those of the positive equilibria. The analysis also provides the global dynamics on the boundary of the cone. The stability and instability conditions are expressed in terms of certain measures of the strength and the symmetry/asymmetry of the inter-age class competitive interactions. Roughly speaking, strong inter-age class competitive interactions promote oscillations (not necessarily periodic) with separated life-cycle stages, while weak interactions promote stable equilibration with overlapping life-cycle stages. Methods used include the theory of planar monotone maps, average Lyapunov functions, and bifurcation theory techniques.      

A Lyapunov function for piecewise-independent differential equations: stability of the ideal free distribution in two patch environments

In this article we construct Lyapunov functions for models described by piecewise-continuous and independent differential equations. Because these models are described by discontinuous differential equations, the theory of Lyapunov functions for smooth dynamical systems is not applicable. Instead, we use a geometrical approach to construct a Lyapunov function. Then we apply the general approach to analyze population dynamics describing exploitative competition of two species in a two-patch environment. We prove that for any biologically meaningful parameter combination the model has a globally stable equilibrium and we analyze this equilibrium with respect to parameters.      

Interpretation of H-NMR Experiments on the Orientation of the Transmembrane Helix WALP23 by Computer Simulations

Orientation, dynamics, and packing of transmembrane helical peptides are important determinants of membrane protein structure, dynamics, and function. Because it is difficult to investigate these aspects by studying real membrane proteins, model transmembrane helical peptides are widely used. NMR experiments provide information on both orientation and dynamics of peptides, but they require that motional models be interpreted. Different motional models yield different interpretations of quadrupolar splittings (QS) in terms of helix orientation and dynamics. Here, we use coarse-grained (CG) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate the behavior of a well-known model transmembrane peptide, WALP23, under different hydrophobic matching/mismatching conditions. We compare experimental ²H-NMR QS (directly measured in experiments), as well as helix tilt angle and azimuthal rotation (not directly measured), with CG MD simulation results. For QS, the agreement is significantly better than previously obtained with atomistic simulations, indicating that equilibrium sampling is more important than atomistic details for reproducing experimental QS. Calculations of helix orientation confirm that the interpretation of QS depends on the motional model used. Our simulations suggest that WALP23 can form dimers, which are more stable in an antiparallel arrangement. The origin of the preference for the antiparallel orientation lies not only in electrostatic interactions but also in better surface complementarity. In most cases, a mixture of monomers and antiparallel dimers provides better agreement with NMR data compared to the monomer and the parallel dimer. CG MD simulations allow predictions of helix orientation and dynamics and interpretation of QS data without requiring any assumption about the motional model.     

The effects of human movement on the persistence of vector-borne diseases

With the recent resurgence of vector-borne diseases due to urbanization and development there is an urgent need to understand the dynamics of vector-borne diseases in rapidly changing urban environments. For example, many empirical studies have produced the disturbing finding that diseases continue to persist in modern city centers with zero or low rates of transmission. We develop spatial models of vector-borne disease dynamics on a network of patches to examine how the movement of humans in heterogeneous environments affects transmission. We show that the movement of humans between patches is sufficient to maintain disease persistence in patches with zero transmission. We construct two classes of models using different approaches: (i) Lagrangian models that mimic human commuting behavior and (ii) Eulerian models that mimic human migration. We determine the basic reproduction number R₀ for both modeling approaches. We show that for both approaches that if the disease-free equilibrium is stable (R₀<1) then it is globally stable and if the disease-free equilibrium is unstable (R₀>1) then there exists a unique positive (endemic) equilibrium that is globally stable among positive solutions. Finally, we prove in general that Lagrangian and Eulerian modeling approaches are not equivalent. The modeling approaches presented provide a framework to explore spatial vector-borne disease dynamics and control in heterogeneous environments. As an example, we consider two patches in which the disease dies out in both patches when there is no movement between them. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the disease becomes endemic in both patches when humans move between the two patches.     

A Numerical Simulation of the One-Locus, Multiple-Allele Fertility Model

Numerical simulations were performed to determine the equilibrium behavior of the one-locus fertility model in which fitness is considered as a property of a pair of mating diploids. A series of patterns of "fertility matrices" were considered for a single locus with two to six alleles. From these simulations, 19 different statistics were collected that characterize, at equilibrium, the heterozygosity, the mean fitness and the fate of populations begun at the allele-frequency centroid. For more than one-half of the trajectories produced by random fertility matrices, there was a decrease in the mean fitness at some time on the way to equilibrium. The mean number of alleles maintained at equilibrium increased only slightly with matrix dimension. Despite the potential for fertility models to display multiple stable equilibria, random fertility models maintain fewer distinct stable points than do random one-locus viability models. Pleiotropic models were also considered with fertility and viability selection operating sequentially within each generation. Most of the equilibrium statistics (with the exception of mean fertility) for the pleiotropic model were intermediate between the corresponding random viability and fertility models.     

Population models with singular equilibrium

A class of models of biological population and communities with a singular equilibrium at the origin is analyzed; it is shown that these models can possess a dynamical regime of deterministic extinction, which is crucially important from the biological standpoint. This regime corresponds to the presence of a family of homoclinics to the origin, so-called elliptic sector. The complete analysis of possible topological structures in a neighborhood of the origin, as well as asymptotics to orbits tending to this point, is given. An algorithmic approach to analyze system behavior with parameter changes is presented. The developed methods and algorithm are applied to existing mathematical models of biological systems. In particular, we analyze a model of anticancer treatment with oncolytic viruses, a parasite-host interaction model, and a model of Chagas' disease.     

A ratio-dependent food chain model and its applications to biological control

While biological controls have been successfully and frequently implemented by nature and human, plausible mathematical models are yet to be found to explain the often observed deterministic extinctions of both pest and control agent in such processes. In this paper we study a three trophic level food chain model with ratio-dependent Michaelis-Menten type functional responses. We shall show that this model is rich in boundary dynamics and is capable of generating such extinction dynamics. Two trophic level Michaelis-Menten type ratio-dependent predator-prey system was globally and systematically analyzed in details recently. A distinct and realistic feature of ratio-dependence is its capability of producing the extinction of prey species, and hence the collapse of the system. Another distinctive feature of this model is that its dynamical outcomes may depend on initial populations levels. Theses features, if preserved in a three trophic food chain model, make it appealing for modelling certain biological control processes (where prey is a plant species, middle predator as a pest, and top predator as a biological control agent) where the simultaneous extinctions of pest and control agent is the hallmark of their successes and are usually dependent on the amount of control agent. Our results indicate that this extinction dynamics and sensitivity to initial population levels are not only preserved, but also enriched in the three trophic level food chain model. Specifically, we provide partial answers to questions such as: under what scenarios a potential biological control may be successful, and when it may fail. We also study the questions such as what conditions ensure the coexistence of all the three species in the forms of a stable steady state and limit cycle, respectively. A multiple attractor scenario is found.