ACCURACY OF ESTIMATED PHYLOGENIES: EFFECTS OF TREE TOPOLOGY AND EVOLUTIONARY MODEL

A simulation study was carried out to investigate the relative importance of tree topology (both balance and stemminess), evolutionary rates (constant, varying among characters, and varying among lineages), and evolutionary models in determining the accuracy with which phylogenetic trees can be estimated. The three evolutionary context models were phyletic (characters can change at each simulated time step), speciational (changes are possible only at the time of speciation into two daughter lineages), and punctuational (changes occur at the time of speciation but only in one of the daughter lineages). UPGMA clustering and maximum parsimony (“Wagner trees”) methods for estimating phylogenies were compared. All trees were based on eight recent OTUs. The three evolutionary context models were found to have the largest influence on accuracy of estimates by both methods. The next most important effect was that of the stemminess × context interaction. Maximum parsimony and UPGMA performed worst under the punctuational models. Under the phyletic model, trees with high stemminess values could be estimated more accurately and balanced trees were slightly easier to estimate than unbalanced ones. Overall, maximum parsimony yielded more accurate trees than UPGMA—but that was expected for these simulations since many more characters than OTUs were used. Our results suggest that the great majority of estimated phylogenetic trees are likely to be quite inaccurate; they underscore the inappropriateness of characterizing current phylogenetic methods as being for reconstruction rather than for estimation.     

Adequacy of numerical taxonomic methods: Further experiments using simulated data

The adequacy of various phenetic and phylogenetic estimation methods was evaluated using simulated data sets. Two parsimony programs were used to construct maximum parsimony trees (WAGNER 78 and HENNIG 86). The CAFCA program was used to perform group-compatibility analysis. Four UPGMA clustering strategies were employed. The simulation model GENESIS was used to generate data sets under different evolutionary conditions. The effects of input parameters and tree properties on the accuracy of the estimated trees were evaluated. UPGMA based on product moment correlations of unstandardized characters appeared to perform best, under all evolutionary conditions tested. The effect of input parameters on the accuracy was not very significant. Among the tree statistics the stemminess of the true tree appeared to be the most important estimator of accuracy.     

FACTORS DETERMINING THE ACCURACY OF CLADOGRAM ESTIMATION: EVALUATION USING COMPUTER SIMULATION

We developed a simulation model of phylogenesis with which we generated a large number of phylogenies and associated data matrices. We examined the characteristics of these and evaluated the success of three taxonomic methods (Wagner parsimony, character compatibility, and UPGMA clustering) as estimators of phylogeny, paying particular attention to the consequences of changes in certain evolutionary assumptions: relative rate of evolution in three different evolutionary contexts (phyletic, parent lineage, and daughter lineage); relative rate of evolution in different directions (novel forward, convergent forward, or reverse); variation of evolutionary rates; and topology of the phylogenetic tree. Except for variation of evolutionary rates, all the evolutionary parameters that we controlled had significant effects on accuracy of phylogenetic reconstructions. Unexpectedly, the topology of the phylogeny was the most important single factor affecting accuracy; some phylogenies are more readily estimated than others for simply historical reasons. We conclude that none of the three estimation methods is very accurate, that the differences in accuracy among them are rather small, and that historical effects (the branching pattern of a phylogeny) may outweigh biological effects in determining the accuracy with which a phylogeny can be reconstructed.     

THE ACCURACY OF PHYLOGENETIC ESTIMATION USING THE NEIGHBOR-JOINING METHOD

We studied the factors affecting the accuracy of the neighbor-joining (NJ) method for estimating phylogenies by simulating character change under different evolutionary models applied to twenty different 8-OTU tree topologies that varied widely with respect to tree imbalance and stemminess. The models incorporated three evolutionary rates—constant, varying among lineages, varying among characters—and three evolutionary contexts concerning patterns of character change relative to speciation events—phyletic, speciational, and punctuational. All combinations of the rate and context models were studied. In addition, three different absolute rates of change were investigated. To measure the accuracy, the strict consensus index was computed between the estimated tree and the tree topology along which the data had been generated. The results were analyzed by analysis of variance and compared to a previous study that evaluated UPGMA clustering and maximum parsimony (MP) as phylogenetic estimation techniques. We found evolutionary context and tree imbalance to be the most important factors affecting the accuracy of the NJ method. NJ was more accurate than UPGMA or MP in terms of the average strict consensus index over all treatments. However, no one method was more accurate than the other two for all combinations of treatments. Higher absolute rate of change generally resulted in higher accuracy for all three methods.     

DO PHYLOGENETIC METHODS PRODUCE TREES WITH BIASED SHAPES?

We examine whether phylogenetic methods provide biased estimates of tree shape with respect to the random branching model. We investigate the performance of five commonly used phylogenetic methods using computer simulation: (1) maximum parsimony; (2) neighbor joining; (3) UPGMA with an outgroup taxon; (4) UPGMA without an outgroup taxon; and (5) maximum likelihood. All methods provide estimates of tree shape that are, on average, more asymmetrical than the true tree, especially when rates of evolution are high. We suggest a simple explanation for the bias and propose a modified test of tree shape that corrects for it.     

Biosystematics of the aphid genus Cryptomyzus (Hornoptera, Aphididae): an electrophoretic analysis

The aphid genus Crypromyzus was studied using starch. el electrophoresis in order to establish differences between the various taxa and to estimate their paylogenetic relationships. A low degree of polymorphism and heterozyosity was observed. Taxa previously assumed to be homogeneous appeared to consist of different tost-secific forms. Polymorphism at the PGI locus was used to assess the degree of isolation. It was founf to range from complete separation to a reduction in gene flow. Three methods of estimating hylogenetic relationships were employed: the UPGMA clustering method using Nei's genetic distance; the Rogers distance together with the distance Wagner method and the independent allele model of Mickevich and Mitter (1981) combined with the Wagner parsimony method. The results of all three methods agree that several of the taxa are closely related but assign different lower branching points to the phylogenetic tree. The independent allele model is discussed in more detail because it is not often applied.     

Molecular phylogeny of plethodonine salamanders and hylid frogs: statistical analysis of protein comparisons.

The bootstrapping method of determining confidence in the topology of phylogenetic trees has been applied to electrophoretic protein data for two groups of amphibians: salamanders of two North American genera (Aneides and Plethodon) of the tribe Plethodontini and Holarctic hylid frogs. Some current methods of phylogenetic reconstruction for electrophoretic protein data have been evaluated by comparing the trees obtained from molecular data sets with available morphological data. Molecular data on the phylogenetic relationships of Aneides and Plethodon, data obtained from electrophoretic and immunological studies, indicate that Aneides probably was derived from western Plethodon subsequent to the separation of eastern and western Plethodon. Thus Plethodon very likely is a paraphyletic genus. The extremely low rate of morphological evolution in Plethodon compared with that in Aneides causes difficulty in indicating their evolutionary relationships taxonomically because there are no synapomorphic morphological characters that define either eastern or western Plethodon, whereas there are several for the genus Aneides. Thus molecular data alone probably indicate the evolutionary relationships of the species in these genera. Highton and Larson's (1979) arrangement of species of Plethodon into eight species groups is supported. The topologies of the unweighted pair-group method using arithmetic means (UPGMA) and distance Wagner trees were compared with independent morphological and molecular data on the relationships of the 28 plethodonine species. It was found that UPGMA trees indicate relationships that are more in agreement with other information than are those provided by distance Wagner trees. The use of the bootstrap technique indicates that the topologies of UPGMA trees are better supported statistically than are the topologies of distance Wagner trees. Moreover, different addition criteria produce a variety of distance Wagner trees with different topologies, each with several groupings that are not supported statistically. It is concluded that considerable caution should be used in interpreting the topology of distance Wagner trees. Very similar results were obtained with a second data set on 30 taxa of Holarctic hylid frogs. Trees obtained by the neighbor-joining method are more in agreement with UPGMA phenograms and other data, so this method of phylogenetic reconstruction may be useful to systematists not willing to assume constant rates of evolution.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Outgroup misplacement and phylogenetic inaccuracy under a molecular clock--a simulation study

We conducted a simulation study of the phylogenetic methods UPGMA, neighbor joining, maximum parsimony, and maximum likelihood for a five-taxon tree under a molecular clock. The parameter space included a small region where maximum parsimony is inconsistent, so we tested inconsistency correction for parsimony and distance correction for neighbor joining. As expected, corrected parsimony was consistent. For these data, maximum likelihood with the clock assumption outperformed each of the other methods tested. The distance-based methods performed marginally better than did maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood without the clock assumption. Data correction was generally detrimental to accuracy, especially for short sequence lengths. We identified another region of the parameter space where, although consistent for a given method, some incorrect trees were each selected with up to twice the frequency of the correct (generating) tree for sequences of bounded length. These incorrect trees are those where the outgroup has been incorrectly placed. In addition to this problem, the placement of the outgroup sequence can have a confounding effect on the ingroup tree, whereby the ingroup is correct when using the ingroup sequences alone, but with the inclusion of the outgroup the ingroup tree becomes incorrect.     

Chloroplast DNA restriction site variation and phylogeny of the Berberidaceae

Comparative restriction site mapping of the chloroplast genome was performed to examine phylogenetic relationships among 27 species representing 16 genera of the Berberidaceae and two outgroups. Chloroplast genomes of the species included in this study showed no major structural rearrangements (i.e., they are collinear to tobacco cpDNA) except for the extension of the inverted repeat in species of Berberis and Mahonia. Excluding several regions that exhibited severe length variation, a total of 501 phylogenetically informative sites was mapped for ten restriction enzymes. The strict consensus tree of 14 equally parsimonious trees indicated that some berberidaceous genera (Berberis, Mahonia, Diphylleia) are not monophyletic. To explore phylogenetic utility of different parsimony methods phylogenetic trees were generated using Wagner, Dollo, and weighted parsimony for a reduced data set that included 18 species. One of the most significant results was the recognition of the four chromosomal groups, which were strongly supported regardless of the parsimony method used. The most notable difference among the trees produced by the three parsimony methods was the relationships among the four chromosomal groups. The cpDNA trees also strongly supported a close relationship of several generic pairs (e.g., Berberis-Mahonia, Epimedium-Vancouveria, etc.). Maximum likelihood values were computed for the four different tree topologies of the chromosomal groups, two Wagner, one Dollo, and one weighted topology. The results indicate that the weighted tree has the highest likelihood value. The lowest likelihood value was obtained for the Dollo tree, which had the highest bootstrap and decay values. Separate analyses using only the Inverted Repeat (IR) region resulted in a tree that is identical to the weighted tree. Poor resolution and/or support for the relationships among the four chromosomal lineages of the Berberidaceae indicate that they may have radiated from an ancestral stock in a relatively short evolutionary time.     

Accuracy of phylogenetic trees estimated from DNA sequence data

The relative merits of four different tree-making methods in obtaining the correct topology were studied by using computer simulation. The methods studied were the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA), Fitch and Margoliash's (FM) method, thd distance Wagner (DW) method, and Tateno et al.'s modified Farris (MF) method. An ancestral DNA sequence was assumed to evolve into eight sequences following a given model tree. Both constant and varying rates of nucleotide substitution were considered. Once the DNA sequences for the eight extant species were obtained, phylogenetic trees were constructed by using corrected (d) and uncorrected (p) nucleotide substitutions per site. The topologies of the trees obtained were then compared with that of the model tree. The results obtained can be summarized as follows: (1) The probability of obtaining the correct rooted or unrooted tree is low unless a large number of nucleotide differences exists between different sequences. (2) When the number of nucleotide substitutions per sequence is small or moderately large, the FM, DW, and MF methods show a better performance than UPGMA in recovering the correct topology. The former group of methods is particularly good for obtaining the correct unrooted tree. (3) When the number of substitutions per sequence is large, UPGMA is at least as good as the other methods, particularly for obtaining the correct rooted tree. (4) When the rate of nucleotide substitution varies with evolutionary lineage, the FM, DW, and MF methods show a better performance in obtaining the correct topology than UPGMA, except when a rooted tree is to be produced from data with a large number of nucleotide substitutions per sequence.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)      

Property and efficiency of the maximum likelihood method for molecular phylogeny

Summary The maximum likelihood (ML) method for constructing phylogenetic trees (both rooted and unrooted trees) from DNA sequence data was studied. Although there is some theoretical problem in the comparison of ML values conditional for each topology, it is possible to make a heuristic argument to justify the method. Based on this argument, a new algorithm for estimating the ML tree is presented. It is shown that under the assumption of a constant rate of evolution, the ML method and UPGMA always give the same rooted tree for the case of three operational taxonomic units (OTUs). This also seems to hold approximately for the case with four OTUs. When we consider unrooted trees with the assumption of a varying rate of nucleotide substitution, the efficiency of the ML method in obtaining the correct tree is similar to those of the maximum parsimony method and distance methods. The ML method was applied to Brown et al.'s data, and the tree topology obtained was the same as that found by the maximum parsimony method, but it was different from those obtained by distance methods.     

Phylogenetic trees based on gene content

Comparing gene content between species can be a useful approach for reconstructing phylogenetic trees. In this paper, we derive a maximum-likelihood estimation of evolutionary distance between species under a simple model of gene genesis and gene loss. Using simulated data on a biological tree with 107 taxa (and on a number of randomly generated trees), we compare the accuracy of tree reconstruction using this ML distance measure to an earlier ad hoc distance. We then compare these distance-based approaches to a character-based tree reconstruction method (Dollo parsimony) which seems well suited to the analysis of gene content data. To simplify simulations, we give a formal proof of the well-known 'fact' that the Dollo parsimony score is independent of the choice of root. Our results show a consistent trend, with the character-based method and ML distance measure outperforming the earlier ad hoc distance method. AVAILABILITY: http://www.ab.informatik.uni-tuebingen.de/software/genecontent/welcome_en.html     

Nucleotide substitution models and estimation of phylogeny

The nucleotide substitution matrix inferred from avian data sets using cytochrome b differs considerably from the models commonly used in phylogenetic analyses. To analyze the possible effects of this particular pattern of change in phylogeny estimation we performed a computer simulation in which we started with a real sequence and used the inferred model of change to produce a tree of 10 species. Maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML), and various distance methods were then used to recover the topology and the branch lengths. We used two kinds of data with varying levels of variation. In addition, we tested with the removal of third positions and different weighting schemes. At low levels of variation, MP was outstanding in recovering the topology (90% correct), while unweighted pair-group method, arithmetic average (UPGMA), regardless of distances used, was poor (40%). At the higher level, most methods had a chance of around 40%-58% of finding the true tree. However, in most cases, the trees found were only slightly wrong, with only one or a few branches misplaced. On the other hand, the use of a "wrong" model had serious effects on the estimation of branch lengths (distances). Although precision was high, accuracy was poor with most methods, giving branch lengths that were biased downward. When seeded with the true distance matrix, Fitch and NJ always found the true tree, while UPGMA frequently failed to do so. The effect of removing third positions was dramatic at low levels of variation, because only one MP program was able to find a true tree at all, albeit rarely, while none of the others ever did so. At higher levels, the situation was better, but still much worse than with the whole data set.     

Phylogenetic analyses of amino acid variation in the serpin proteins

Phylogenetic analyses of 110 serpin protein sequences revealed clades consistent with independent phylogenetic analyses based on exon-intron structure and diagnostic amino acid sites. Trees were estimated by maximum likelihood, neighbor joining, and partial split decomposition using both the BLOSUM 62 and Jones-Taylor-Thornton substitution matrices. Neighbor-joining trees gave results closest to those based on independent analyses using genomic and chromosomal data. The maximum-likelihood trees derived using the quartet puzzling algorithm were very conservative, producing many small clades that separated groups of proteins that other results suggest were related. Independent analyses based on exon-intron structure suggested that a neighbor-joining tree was more accurate than maximum-likelihood trees obtained using the quartet puzzling algorithm.     

Signal, noise, and reliability in molecular phylogenetic analyses.

DNA sequences and other molecular data compared among organisms may contain phylogenetic signal, or they may be randomized with respect to phylogenetic history. Some method is needed to distinguish phylogenetic signal from random noise to avoid analysis of data that have been randomized with respect to the historical relationships of the taxa being compared. We analyzed 8,000 random data matrices consisting of 10-500 binary or four-state characters and 5-25 taxa to study several options for detecting signal in systematic data bases. Analysis of random data often yields a single most-parsimonious tree, especially if the number of characters examined is large and the number of taxa examined is small (both often true in molecular studies). The most-parsimonious tree inferred from random data may also be considerably shorter than the second-best alternative. The distribution of tree lengths of all tree topologies (or a random sample thereof) provides a sensitive measure of phylogenetic signal: data matrices with phylogenetic signal produce tree-length distributions that are strongly skewed to the left, whereas those composed of random noise are closer to symmetrical. In simulations of phylogeny with varying rates of mutation (up to levels that produce random variation among taxa), the skewness of tree-length distributions is closely related to the success of parsimony in finding the true phylogeny. Tables of critical values of a skewness test statistic, g1, are provided for binary and four-state characters for 10-500 characters and 5-25 taxa. These tables can be used in a rapid and efficient test for significant structure in data matrices for phylogenetic analysis.     

ALLOZYME DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE BOVIDAE

We describe a phylogeny of the Bovidae based on 40 allozyme loci in 27 species, representing 10 of the 14 bovid tribes described by Vrba (1985). Giraffe represented a related family (Giraffidae). A phenogram was derived using the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic means (UPGMA), based on Nei's genetic distances (ND) between species. A tree was also derived using the neighbor-joining technique, also based on ND. To provide a cladistic interpretation, the data were analyzed by a maximum parsimony method (phylogenetic analysis using parsimony, PAUP). We found marked divergence within the Bovidae, consistent with the appearance of the family in the early Miocene. Unexpectedly, the most divergent species was the impala, which occupied a basal position in all trees. Species in the tribe Alcelaphini were the most derived taxa in all trees. These patterns conflict strongly with the previous taxonomic alliance, based on immuno-distance and anatomical evidence, of the impala as a sister group of the Alcelaphini. All trees agreed that tribes described by Vrba (1985) are monophyletic, except the Neotragini, which was polyphyletic, with suni occupying a long branch by itself. The dikdik and klipspringer were consistently placed as sister taxa to species in the Antilopini. Three tribes (Aepycerotini, Tragelaphini and Cephalophini), whose fossils have not been found outside Africa, were basal in all trees, suggesting that bovids originated in Africa. Nodes connecting the remaining tribes were closely clustered, a pattern that agrees with fossil evidence of rapid divergence within the Bovidae in the mid-Miocene (about 15 mybp). The allozyme data suggested a second phase of rapid divergence within tribes during the Plio-Pleistocene, a pattern that also agrees with fossil evidence. Rates of bovid divergence have therefore been far from constant. However, the clustering of nodes imparts considerable uncertainty to the branching order leading to the derived tribes, and to a lesser extent, species within tribes. The classical division of the Bovidae into the Boodontia and Aegeodontia does not agree with the phylogenetic grouping of tribes presented in this analysis. However, the maximum parsimony tree derived using ‘local’ branch swapping clustered all grazing species into a derived, monophyletic group, suggesting that grazing may have evolved only once in bovid evolution.     

拓扑树间的通经拓扑距离

给出了一种新的系统树间的拓扑距离,使用NJ,MP,UPGMA等3种方法对13种动物的线粒体中14个基因（含组合的）DNA序列数据进行系统树的构建,利用分割拓扑距离和本文给出的通经拓扑距离对这14种系统树这间及其与真树进行比较。结果显示,NJ法对获得已知树的有效率最高,MP法次之,UPGMA法最低。这14种DNA序列所构建的系统树与已知树的拓扑距离基本上是随其DNA序列长度增加而减小,但两者的相关系数并未达到显著水平,分割拓扑距离在总体上可反映树间的拓扑结构差异,但其测度精确度比通经拓扑距离要低。