Voluntary medical male circumcision: modeling the impact and cost of expanding male circumcision for HIV prevention in eastern and southern Africa

Background

There is strong evidence showing that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces HIV incidence in men. To inform the VMMC policies and goals of 13 priority countries in eastern and southern Africa, we estimate the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC using updated, country-specific data.

Methods and Findings

We use the Decision Makers'' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) to model the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC in Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Nyanza Province in Kenya. We use epidemiologic and demographic data from recent household surveys for each country. The cost of VMMC ranges from US$65.85 to US$95.15 per VMMC performed, based on a cost assessment of VMMC services aligned with the World Health Organization''s considerations of models for optimizing volume and efficiencies. Results from the DMPPT models suggest that scaling up adult VMMC to reach 80% coverage in the 13 countries by 2015 would entail performing 20.34 million circumcisions between 2011 and 2015 and an additional 8.42 million between 2016 and 2025 (to maintain the 80% coverage). Such a scale-up would result in averting 3.36 million new HIV infections through 2025. In addition, while the model shows that this scale-up would cost a total of US$2 billion between 2011 and 2025, it would result in net savings (due to averted treatment and care costs) amounting to US$16.51 billion.

Conclusions

This study suggests that rapid scale-up of VMMC in eastern and southern Africa is warranted based on the likely impact on the region''s HIV epidemics and net savings. Scaling up of safe VMMC in eastern and southern Africa will lead to a substantial reduction in HIV infections in the countries and lower health system costs through averted HIV care costs. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary.     

Understanding the impact of male circumcision interventions on the spread of HIV in southern Africa

Background

Three randomised controlled trials have clearly shown that circumcision of adult men reduces the chance that they acquire HIV infection. However, the potential impact of circumcision programmes – either alone or in combination with other established approaches – is not known and no further field trials are planned. We have used a mathematical model, parameterised using existing trial findings, to understand and predict the impact of circumcision programmes at the population level.

Findings

Our results indicate that circumcision will lead to reductions in incidence for women and uncircumcised men, as well as those circumcised, but that even the most effective intervention is unlikely to completely stem the spread of the virus. Without additional interventions, HIV incidence could eventually be reduced by 25–35%, depending on the level of coverage achieved and whether onward transmission from circumcised men is also reduced. However, circumcision interventions can act synergistically with other types of prevention programmes, and if efforts to change behaviour are increased in parallel with the scale-up of circumcision services, then dramatic reductions in HIV incidence could be achieved. In the long-term, this could lead to reduced AIDS deaths and less need for anti-retroviral therapy. Any increases in risk behaviours following circumcision , i.e. ‘risk compensation’, could offset some of the potential benefit of the intervention, especially for women, but only very large increases would lead to more infections overall.

Conclusions

Circumcision will not be the silver bullet to prevent HIV transmission, but interventions could help to substantially protect men and women from infection, especially in combination with other approaches.     

Voluntary medical male circumcision: strategies for meeting the human resource needs of scale-up in southern and eastern Africa

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces female-to-male HIV transmission by approximately 60%; modeling suggests that scaling up VMMC to 80% of men 15- to 49-years-old within five years would avert over 3.3 million new HIV infections in 14 high priority countries/regions in southern and eastern Africa by 2025 and would require 20.33 million circumcisions. However, the shortage of health professionals in these countries must be addressed to reach these proposed coverage levels. To identify human resource approaches that are being used to improve VMMC volume and efficiency, we looked at previous literature and conducted a program review. We identified surgical efficiencies, non-surgical efficiencies, task shifting, task sharing, temporary redeployment of public sector staff during VMMC campaign periods, expansion of the health workforce through recruitment of unemployed, recently retired, newly graduating, or on-leave health care workers, and the use of volunteer medical staff from other countries as approaches that address human resource constraints. Case studies from Kenya, Tanzania, and Swaziland illustrate several innovative responses to human resource challenges. Although the shortage of skilled personnel remains a major challenge to the rapid scale-up of VMMC in the 14 African priority countries/regions, health programs throughout the region may be able to replicate or adapt these approaches to scale up VMMC for public health impact.     

Voluntary medical male circumcision: a framework analysis of policy and program implementation in eastern and southern Africa

Background

Following confirmation of the effectiveness of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention, the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS issued recommendations in 2007. Less than 5 y later, priority countries are at different stages of program scale-up. This paper analyzes the progress towards the scale-up of VMMC programs. It analyzes the adoption of VMMC as an additional HIV prevention strategy and explores the factors may have expedited or hindered the adoption of policies and initial program implementation in priority countries to date.

Methods and Findings

VMMCs performed in priority countries between 2008 and 2010 were recorded and used to classify countries into five adopter categories according to the Diffusion of Innovations framework. The main predictors of VMMC program adoption were determined and factors influencing subsequent scale-up explored. By the end of 2010, over 550,000 VMMCs had been performed, representing approximately 3% of the target coverage level in priority countries. The “early adopter” countries developed national VMMC policies and initiated VMMC program implementation soon after the release of the WHO recommendations. However, based on modeling using the Decision Makers'' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT), only Kenya appears to be on track towards achievement of the DMPPT-estimated 80% coverage goal by 2015, having already achieved 61.5% of the DMPPT target. None of the other countries appear to be on track to achieve their targets. Potential predicators of early adoption of male circumcision programs include having a VMMC focal person, establishing a national policy, having an operational strategy, and the establishment of a pilot program.

Conclusions

Early adoption of VMMC policies did not necessarily result in rapid program scale-up. A key lesson is the importance of not only being ready to adopt a new intervention but also ensuring that factors critical to supporting and accelerating scale-up are incorporated into the program. The most successful program had country ownership and sustained leadership to translate research into a national policy and program. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Voluntary medical male circumcision: a qualitative study exploring the challenges of costing demand creation in eastern and southern Africa

Background

This paper proposes an approach to estimating the costs of demand creation for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) scale-up in 13 countries of eastern and southern Africa. It addresses two key questions: (1) what are the elements of a standardized package for demand creation? And (2) what challenges exist and must be taken into account in estimating the costs of demand creation?

Methods and Findings

We conducted a key informant study on VMMC demand creation using purposive sampling to recruit seven people who provide technical assistance to government programs and manage budgets for VMMC demand creation. Key informants provided their views on the important elements of VMMC demand creation and the most effective funding allocations across different types of communication approaches (e.g., mass media, small media, outreach/mobilization). The key finding was the wide range of views, suggesting that a standard package of core demand creation elements would not be universally applicable. This underscored the importance of tailoring demand creation strategies and estimates to specific country contexts before estimating costs. The key informant interviews, supplemented by the researchers'' field experience, identified these issues to be addressed in future costing exercises: variations in the cost of VMMC demand creation activities by country and program, decisions about the quality and comprehensiveness of programming, and lack of data on critical elements needed to “trigger the decision” among eligible men.

Conclusions

Based on this study''s findings, we propose a seven-step methodological approach to estimate the cost of VMMC scale-up in a priority country, based on our key assumptions. However, further work is needed to better understand core components of a demand creation package and how to cost them. Notwithstanding the methodological challenges, estimating the cost of demand creation remains an essential element in deriving estimates of the total costs for VMMC scale-up in eastern and southern Africa.     

Male circumcision and sexually transmitted infections in Botswana

This study set out to investigate the influence of male circumcision and other factors on sexually transmitted infections in Botswana. A syndromic approach, which diagnoses a sexually transmitted infection based on the presence of urethral discharge or genital ulcers rather than on laboratory tests, was used. The data were from the 2001 Botswana AIDS Impact Survey where a nationally representative, randomly selected sample of men and women aged 10-64 years were interviewed in both urban and rural areas. The sample selected for this study consisted of 216,480 men aged 15-64 years who had ever had sexual intercourse. The logistic regression technique was executed to examine the association between male circumcision and self-reported urethral discharge or genital ulcers, while controlling for all other independent variables in the analysis. The main finding of this study was that among men who are circumcised, the odds for self-reported urethral discharge or genital ulcers are significantly lower than for those men who are not circumcised in both urban and rural Botswana. The analysis also showed that the odds in favour of self-reported urethral discharge or genital ulcers, for men who drink alcohol, are twice as large as those for men who do not drink alcohol, controlling for all other independent variables in the analysis. Religion and ethnicity also came through as factors exerting a protective influence against self-reported symptoms of sexually transmitted infections. The conclusion is that while male circumcision appears to be significantly associated with the risk for self-reported urethral discharge or genital ulcers, it is man's behaviour, irrespective of ethnicity or religious dictates, that continues to play a vital role in protection against self-reported symptoms of sexually transmitted infections in Botswana.