Historical drivers of extinction risk: using past evidence to direct future monitoring

Global commitments to halt biodiversity decline mean that it is essential to monitor species'' extinction risk. However, the work required to assess extinction risk is intensive. We demonstrate an alternative approach to monitoring extinction risk, based on the response of species to external conditions. Using retrospective International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments, we classify transitions in the extinction risk of 497 mammalian carnivores and ungulates between 1975 and 2013. Species that moved to lower Red List categories, or remained Least Concern, were classified as ‘lower risk''; species that stayed in a threatened category, or moved to a higher category of risk, were classified as ‘higher risk''. Twenty-four predictor variables were used to predict transitions, including intrinsic traits (species biology) and external conditions (human pressure, distribution state and conservation interventions). The model correctly classified up to 90% of all transitions and revealed complex interactions between variables, such as protected areas (PAs) versus human impact. The most important predictors were: past extinction risk, PA extent, geographical range size, body size, taxonomic family and human impact. Our results suggest that monitoring a targeted set of metrics would efficiently identify species facing a higher risk, and could guide the allocation of resources between monitoring species'' extinction risk and monitoring external conditions.     

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.     

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.     

Application to the terrestrial vertebrates of Italy of a system proposed by IUCN for a new classification of national Red List categories

The criteria for classification set down in the new system of the IUCN Red List categories were applied to national distribution areas. Application of the new criteria to national distribution areas calls for an estimate of the rate of immigration. Classification was applied to the Italian autochthonous terrestrial vertebrate species that reproduce in Italy (Amphibia, Reptilia, Aves and Mammalia). Species with both marine and land habitats were included, but Cetaceans were excluded. Eighty-eight species of the autochthonous species that reproduce in Italy were classified in the threatened categories at the national level. One of the main purposes of the present classification of the risk of extinction in national distribution areas is to provide the information needed to define global conservation priorities of species present on national territory. The species nationally and/or globally endangered or at lower risk were grouped into four priority classes, on the basis of their reproductive phenology on national territory and the size of temporarily present contingents. Of the 551 species present regularly or seasonally on Italian territory, 149 (27.0%) are in the initial indicative list of conservation priorities.     

Correlates of extinction proneness in tropical angiosperms

Rapid losses and degradation of natural habitats in the tropics are driving catastrophic declines and extinctions of native biotas, including angiosperms. Determining the ecological and life-history correlates of extinction proneness in tropical plant species may help reveal the mechanisms underlying their responses to habitat disturbance, and assist in the pre-emptive identification of species at risk from extinction. We determined the predictors of extinction proneness in 1884 locally extinct ( n  = 454) and extant ( n  = 1430) terrestrial angiosperms (belonging to 43 orders, 133 families, and 689 genera) in the tropical island nation of Singapore (699.4 km²), which has lost 99.6% of its primary lowland evergreen rainforest since 1819. A wide variety of traits such as geographical distribution, pollination system, sexual system, habit, habitat, height, fruit/seed dispersal mechanism, and capacity for vegetative re-sprouting were used in the analysis. Despite controlling for phylogeny (as approximated by family level classification), we found that only a small percentage of the variation in the extinction probability could be explained by these factors. Epiphytic, monoecious, and hermaphroditic species and those restricted to inland forests have higher probabilities of extinction. Species dependent on mammal pollinators also probably have higher extinction probabilities. More comparative studies that use species traits to identify extinction-prone plant species are needed to guide the enormous, but essential task of identifying species most in need of conservation action.     

Extinction risk of Chinese angiosperms varies between woody and herbaceous species

Aim

Understanding how species' traits and environmental contexts relate to extinction risk is a critical priority for ecology and conservation biology. This study aims to identify and explore factors related to extinction risk between herbaceous and woody angiosperms to facilitate more effective conservation and management strategies and understand the interactions between environmental threats and species' traits.

Location

China.

Taxon

Angiosperms.

Methods

We obtained a large dataset including five traits, six extrinsic variables, and 796,118 occurrence records for 14,888 Chinese angiosperms. We assessed the phylogenetic signal and used phylogenetic generalized least squares regressions to explore relationships between extinction risk, plant traits, and extrinsic variables in woody and herbaceous angiosperms. We also used phylogenetic path analysis to evaluate causal relationships among traits, climate variables, and extinction risk of different growth forms.

Results

The phylogenetic signal of extinction risk differed among woody and herbaceous species. Angiosperm extinction risk was mainly affected by growth form, altitude, mean annual temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, and precipitation change from 1901 to 2020. Woody species' extinction risk was strongly affected by height and precipitation, whereas extinction risk for herbaceous species was mainly affected by mean annual temperature rather than plant traits.

Main conclusions

Woody species were more likely to have higher extinction risks than herbaceous species under climate change and extinction threat levels varied with both plant traits and extrinsic variables. The relationships we uncovered may help identify and protect threatened plant species and the ecosystems that rely on them.     

Human pressures predict species’ geographic range size better than biological traits

Geographic range size is the manifestation of complex interactions between intrinsic species traits and extrinsic environmental conditions. It is also a fundamental ecological attribute of species and a key extinction risk correlate. Past research has primarily focused on the role of biological and environmental predictors of range size, but macroecological patterns can also be distorted by human activities. Here, we analyse the role of extrinsic (biogeography, habitat state, climate, human pressure) and intrinsic (biology) variables in predicting range size of the world's terrestrial mammals. In particular, our aim is to compare the predictive ability of human pressure vs. species biology. We evaluated the ability of 19 intrinsic and extrinsic variables in predicting range size for 4867 terrestrial mammals. We repeated the analyses after excluding restricted‐range species and performed separate analyses for species in different biogeographic realms and taxonomic groups. Our model had high predictive ability and showed that climatic variables and human pressures are the most influential predictors of range size. Interestingly, human pressures predict current geographic range size better than biological traits. These findings were confirmed when repeating the analyses on large‐ranged species, individual biogeographic regions and individual taxonomic groups. Climatic and human impacts have determined the extinction of mammal species in the past and are the main factors shaping the present distribution of mammals. These factors also affect other vertebrate groups globally, and their influence on range size may be similar as well. Measuring climatic and human variables can allow to obtain approximate range size estimations for data‐deficient and newly discovered species (e.g. hundreds of mammal species worldwide). Our results support the need for a more careful consideration of the role of climate change and human impact – as opposed to species biological characteristics – in shaping species distribution ranges.     

A Comprehensive Quantitative Assessment of Bird Extinction Risk in Brazil

In an effort to avoid species loss, scientists have focused their efforts on the mechanisms making some species more prone to extinction than others. However, species show different responses to threats given their evolutionary history, behavior, and intrinsic biological features. We used bird biological features and external threats to (1) understand the multiple pathways driving Brazilian bird species to extinction, (2) to investigate if and how extinction risk is geographically structured, and (3) to quantify how much diversity is currently represented inside protected areas. We modeled the extinction risk of 1557 birds using classification trees and evaluated the relative contribution of each biological feature and external threat in predicting extinction risk. We also quantified the proportion of species and their geographic range currently protected by the network of Brazilian protected areas. The optimal classification tree showed different pathways to bird extinction. Habitat conversion was the most important predictor driving extinction risk though other variables, such as geographic range size, type of habitat, hunting or trapping and trophic guild, were also relevant in our models. Species under higher extinction risk were concentrated mainly in the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot and were not quite represented inside protected areas, neither in richness nor range. Predictive models could assist conservation actions, and this study could contribute by highlighting the importance of natural history and ecology in these actions.     

Commonness, population depletion and conservation biology

Species conservation practice, as opposed to principle, generally emphasizes species at risk of imminent extinction. This results in priority lists principally of those with small populations and/or geographical ranges. However, recent work emphasizes the importance of common species to ecosystems. Even relatively small proportional declines in their abundance can result in large absolute losses of individuals and biomass, occurrences significantly disrupting ecosystem structure, function and services. Here, we argue that combined with evidence of dramatic declines in once common species, this suggests the need to pay more attention to such depletions. Complementing the focus on extinction risk, we highlight important implications for conservation, including the need to identify, monitor and alleviate significant depletion events.     

Integrating the Rabinowitz rarity framework with a National Plant Inventory in South Korea

Increasingly large presence‐only survey datasets are becoming available for use in conservation assessments. Potentially, these records could be used to determine spatial patterns of plant species rarity and endemism. We test the integration of a large South Korean species record database with Rabinowitz rarity classes. Rabinowitz proposed seven classes of species rarity using three variables: geographic range, habitat specificity, and local population size. We estimated the range size and local abundance of 2,215 plant species from species occurrence records and habitat specificity as the number of landcover types each species’ records were found in. We classified each species into a rarity class or as common, compared species composition by class to national lists, and mapped the spatial pattern of species richness for each rarity class. Species were classed to narrow or wide geographic ranges using 315 km, the average from a range size index of all species (D_max), based on maximum distance between observations. There were four classes each within the narrow and wide range groups, sorted using cutoffs of local abundance and habitat specificity. Nationally listed endangered species only appeared in the narrow‐range classes, while nationally listed endemic species appeared in almost all classes. Species richness in most rarity classes was high in northeastern South Korea especially for species with narrow ranges. Policy implications. Large presence‐only surveys may be able to estimate some classes of rarity better than others, but modification to include estimates of local abundance and habitat types, could greatly increase their utility. Application of the Rabinowitz rarity framework to such surveys can extend their utility beyond species distribution models and can identify areas that need further surveys and for conservation priority. Future studies should be aware of the subjectivity of the rarity classification and that regional scale implementations of the framework may differ.     

Phylogeny,extinction and conservation: embracing uncertainties in a time of urgency

Evolutionary studies have played a fundamental role in our understanding of life, but until recently, they had only a relatively modest involvement in addressing conservation issues. The main goal of the present discussion meeting issue is to offer a platform to present the available methods allowing the integration of phylogenetic and extinction risk data in conservation planning. Here, we identify the main knowledge gaps in biodiversity science, which include incomplete sampling, reconstruction biases in phylogenetic analyses, partly known species distribution ranges, and the difficulty in producing conservation assessments for all known species, not to mention that much of the effective biological diversity remains to be discovered. Given the impact that human activities have on biodiversity and the urgency with which we need to address these issues, imperfect assumptions need to be sanctioned and surrogates used in the race to salvage as much as possible of our natural and evolutionary heritage. We discuss some aspects of the uncertainties found in biodiversity science, such as the ideal surrogates for biodiversity, the gaps in our knowledge and the numerous available phylogenetic diversity-based methods. We also introduce a series of cases studies that demonstrate how evolutionary biology can effectively contribute to biodiversity conservation science.     

Integrating alpha,beta, and phylogenetic diversity to understand anuran fauna along environmental gradients of tropical forests in western Ecuador

The study of current distribution patterns of amphibian species in South America is of particular interest in areas such as evolutionary ecology and conservation biology. These patterns could be playing an important role in biological interactions, population size, and connectivity, and potential extinction risk in amphibians. Here, we tested the effects of spatial and environmental factors on the variation, turnover, and phylogenetic diversity of anuran amphibian species in tropical forests of western Ecuador. Data for presence/absence of 101 species of 34 genera and 10 families registered in 12 sites (nested in four biogeographic units) were obtained through fieldwork, museum collections, and literature records. We examined the influence of geographical, altitudinal, temperature, and precipitation distances on differences in anuran composition between sites. We found significant positive correlations among all of these variables with anuran distribution. The greatest alpha diversity (species richness) was found in the Equatorial Chocó biogeographic unit. Equatorial Pacific biogeographic unit could act as a transition zone between the Equatorial Chocó and Equatorial Tumbes. The western Andes (Western Cordillera biogeographic unit) was the most dissimilar and exhibited a higher species turnover rate than the other biogeographic units. Our results suggest that precipitation and elevation play a key role in maintaining the diversity of amphibian species in western Ecuador.     

Human impacts and the global distribution of extinction risk

Understanding the global geographical distribution of extinction risk is a key challenge in conservation biology. It remains controversial, however, to what extent areas become threat hotspots simply because of high human impacts or due to predisposing ecological conditions. Limits to the taxonomic and geographical extent, resolution and quality of previously available data have precluded a full global assessment of the relative roles of these factors. Here, we use a new global database on the geographical distributions of birds on continents and continental islands to show that, after controlling for species richness, the best predictors of the global pattern of extinction risk are measures of human impact. Ecological gradients are of secondary importance at a global scale. The converse is true for individual biogeographic realms, within which variation in human impact is reduced and its influence on extinction risk globally is therefore underestimated. These results underline the importance of a global perspective on the mechanisms driving spatial patterns of extinction risk, and the key role of anthropogenic factors in driving the current extinction crisis.     

Investigations in commonness and rarity: a comparative analysis of co-occurring, congeneric Mexican trees

Population size distributions were examined for 12 species of trees co-occurring at Chamela Biological Station in Jalisco, Mexico. Species had been selected as congeneric pairs and trios similar in gross morphology and ecology in order better to identify correlates of relative abundance. Rarer species were found unanimously to have more irregular distributions of individuals among size classes than more common species when distributions were compared to a smooth, descending curve constructed from population mean stem diameters (an exponential distribution). Examination among species of patterns of deviation from these corresponding smooth distributions indicates that the most reasonably inferred cause for the observed pattern is consistent differences in degree of fluctuation in recruitment into adult size classes. These results thereby suggest a demographic difference between locally rarer and more common species that may be generally associated with observed differences in relative abundance and indicate a focus for management of rarity in forest trees.     

Correlates of extinction vulnerability in Canadian’s prairie ecoregion

Identifying the correlates of extinction can help prioritize species for conservation effort, an important step when developing effective conservation policies. Most previous studies on extinction vulnerability have been restricted to a single predictor within a specific region. To understand the mechanism underlying predictors of extinction risk, an examination of the contribution of various factors at different scales is an important step. We investigated the contribution of phylogeny, ploidy level, habitat breadth, and life form on both provincial and national conservation ranks of Alberta’s prairie ecoregion plant species. We collected data on conservation status, chromosome number, habitat breadth, and life form for 1274 species. We used phylogenetic comparative models to assess (1) the relative contribution, significance, and possible interaction of predictor variables in determining extinction vulnerability, and (2) the possible underlying mechanisms governing observed patterns of extinction vulnerability at the provincial and national level. We find that the contribution, significance, and predictive power of variables were often scale-dependent. While the impact of habitat breadth was significant at both provincial and national scales, ploidy and life form was only significant at the national and provincial level, respectively. We also found a significant negative interaction between ploidy and habitat breadth at both geographical scales, such that among widespread species (species with a higher habitat breadth), diploids are less likely to be at risk than polyploids. Our study reveals the importance of the study scale on the accuracy of extinction prediction. We also suggest that discriminating between regionally restricted and non-restricted species could improve the predictability of sub-global extinction patterns.

     

Identifying Snake Species Threatened by Economic Exploitation and International Trade in China

It is important to identify endangered species from thousands of species and take conservation measures in time. Many researchers have reported declines and overexploitation of snake species, but it is difficult to identify the species requiring emergency concern. We tried to identify the snake species threatened by economic exploitation in mainland China through the following procedure: First, we identified 16 snake species in significant international trade through analyzing trade records; second, we chose 10 variables representing biological characteristics and economics factors. The values of these variables for each species were evaluated from 0 (minimum risk) to 3 (high risk). Three snake species protected by CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) were also assessed. We then got the priority rank of these species by calculating their average scores. We found that among the species in significant international trade, except those CITES-listed ones, four snake species were at extremely high risk, while all other snake species in significant trade were endangered or vulnerable. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to classify the species into four groups according to their different biological and economic characteristics. This study provides a possible way to identify endangered species and to rank their conservation priority. The results of this paper can also be used as a priority sequence for taking conservation action, especially trade control measures.     

Sustainability of threatened species displayed in public aquaria,with a case study of Australian sharks and rays

Zoos and public aquaria exhibit numerous threatened species globally, and in the modern context of these institutions as conservation hubs, it is crucial that displays are ecologically sustainable. Elasmobranchs (sharks and rays) are of particular conservation concern and a higher proportion of threatened species are exhibited than any other assessed vertebrate group. Many of these lack sustainable captive populations, so comprehensive assessments of sustainability may be needed to support the management of future harvests and safeguard wild populations. We propose an approach to identify species that require an assessment of sustainability. Species at risk of extinction in the wild were considered to be those assessed as threatened (CR, EN or VU) on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, or data deficient species that may be at an elevated risk of extinction due to life history traits and habitat associations. We defined sustainable captive populations as self-maintaining, or from a source population that can sustain harvest levels without risk of population declines below sustainable levels. The captive breeding and wild harvest records of at risk species displayed by Australian aquaria were examined as a case study. Two species, largetooth sawfish Pristis pristis and grey nurse shark Carcharias taurus, were found to have unsustainable captive populations and were identified as high priorities for comprehensive sustainability assessments. This review highlights the need for changes in permitting practices and zoo and aquarium record management systems to improve conservation outcomes for captive elasmobranchs.     

Small fish, big fish, red fish, blue fish: size-biased extinction risk of the world's freshwater and marine fishes

Aim  In light of the current biodiversity crisis, there is a need to identify and protect species at greatest risk of extinction. Ecological theory and global-scale analyses of bird and mammal faunas suggest that small-bodied species are less vulnerable to extinction, yet this hypothesis remains untested for the largest group of vertebrates, fish. Here, we compare body-size distributions of freshwater and marine fishes under different levels of global extinction risk (i.e. listed as vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered according to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species ) from different major sources of threat (habitat loss/degradation, human harvesting, invasive species and pollution).
Location  Global, freshwater and marine.
Methods  We collated maximum body length data for 22,800 freshwater and marine fishes and compared body-size frequency distributions after controlling for phylogeny.
Results  We found that large-bodied marine fishes are under greater threat of global extinction, whereas both small- and large-bodied freshwater species are more likely to be at risk. Our results support the notion that commercial fishing activities disproportionately threaten large-bodied marine and freshwater species, whereas habitat degradation and loss threaten smaller-bodied marine fishes.
Main conclusions  Our study provides compelling evidence that global fish extinction risk does not universally scale with body size. Given the central role of body size for trophic position and the functioning of food webs, human activities may have strikingly different effects on community organization and food web structure in freshwater and marine systems.     

Assisted colonization as a climate change adaptation tool

Assisted colonization is a form of conservation translocation which introduces species at risk from extinction to new habitats, beyond their current range, in anticipation of more suitable conditions. Identifying which species, communities and ecosystems may benefit most from assisted colonization in coming decades is a key goal for conservation. Climate change is expected to lead to the loss or movement of suitable habitat for a range of species and anticipating which can be effectively conserved through assisted colonization is critical. Here, we identify a series of scenarios that may predispose terrestrial species to the need for assisted colonization in order to reduce extinction risk resulting from anthropogenic climate change and assemble a list of traits commonly associated with at‐risk species. These traits may help to provide broad‐scale guidance on how to select species to target for assisted colonization as a conservation management response to climate change. We also identify six key themes associated with successful conservation translocations including recipient site selection and preparation, a clear understanding of species biology and ecology, and taking lessons from invasive species research.     

Integrating data‐deficient species in analyses of evolutionary history loss

There is an increasing interest in measuring loss of phylogenetic diversity and evolutionary distinctiveness which together depict the evolutionary history of conservation interest. Those losses are assessed through the evolutionary relationships between species and species threat status or extinction probabilities. Yet, available information is not always sufficient to quantify the threat status of species that are then classified as data deficient. Data‐deficient species are a crucial issue as they cause incomplete assessments of the loss of phylogenetic diversity and evolutionary distinctiveness. We aimed to explore the potential bias caused by data‐deficient species in estimating four widely used indices: HEDGE, EDGE, PDloss, and Expected PDloss. Second, we tested four different widely applicable and multitaxa imputation methods and their potential to minimize the bias for those four indices. Two methods are based on a best‐ vs. worst‐case extinction scenarios, one is based on the frequency distribution of threat status within a taxonomic group and one is based on correlates of extinction risks. We showed that data‐deficient species led to important bias in predictions of evolutionary history loss (especially high underestimation when they were removed). This issue was particularly important when data‐deficient species tended to be clustered in the tree of life. The imputation method based on correlates of extinction risks, especially geographic range size, had the best performance and enabled us to improve risk assessments. Solving threat status of DD species can fundamentally change our understanding of loss of phylogenetic diversity. We found that this loss could be substantially higher than previously found in amphibians, squamate reptiles, and carnivores. We also identified species that are of high priority for the conservation of evolutionary distinctiveness.