基于土地利用变化的长春市生态风险评价

基于长春市1985年、2000年和2015年的Landsat TM遥感影像, 提取3个时相的土地利用类型数据, 通过构建网格尺度下的生态风险指数, 借助空间分析、地统计分析等方法定量评价长春市土地利用变化下的生态风险时空演变特征, 并应用地理探测器对其影响因子进行探测。结果表明: (1)1985—2015年, 长春市土地利用变化明显, 建设用地持续扩张, 耕地波动式收缩; 土地利用中耕地转为建设用地、林地与耕地间的相互转换是地类转移的主要形式; (2)长春市土地利用生态风险呈小幅下降趋势, 在地域内呈现西高东低的分异特征, 生态风险热、冷点区空间分布相对稳定并具有一定程度扩张趋势; (3)生态风险快速增长时期, 经济、人口与发展活力的空间格局成为长春市生态风险的主导因子, 而海拔与三者的协同作用进一步增强了生态风险的解释力。总体来看, 建设用地扩张会加剧中心城区生态风险, 但与区域整体生态风险增高并不存在必然联系; 为防止高风险区持续扩张, 城市应设定“增长边界”、转变空间发展方式、高效集约利用建设用地, 加强城市生态系统自然保育、防止景观破碎化, 实现城市可持续发展。     

Climate and land use change impacts on plant distributions in Germany

We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2 degrees C), 15-19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally-averaged from 2995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.     

Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg,Germany

Decisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government.The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO₂ savings of up to 3.5 million tons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials.In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification.     

GHG emissions and other environmental impacts of indirect land use change mitigation

The implementation of measures to increase productivity and resource efficiency in food and bioenergy chains as well as to more sustainably manage land use can significantly increase the biofuel production potential while limiting the risk of causing indirect land use change (ILUC). However, the application of these measures may influence the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and other environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production. This study applies a novel, integrated approach to assess the environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production for three ILUC mitigation scenarios, representing a low, medium and high miscanthus‐based ethanol production potential, and for three agricultural intensification pathways in terms of sustainability in Lublin province in 2020. Generally, the ILUC mitigation scenarios attain lower net annual emissions compared to a baseline scenario that excludes ILUC mitigation and bioethanol production. However, the reduction potential significantly depends on the intensification pathway considered. For example, in the moderate ILUC mitigation scenario, the net annual GHG emissions in the case study are 2.3 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (1.8 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for conventional intensification and ?0.8 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (?0.6 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for sustainable intensification, compared to 3.0 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (2.3 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) in the baseline scenario. In addition, the intensification pathway is found to be more influential for the GHG balance than the ILUC mitigation scenario, indicating the importance of how agricultural intensification is implemented in practice. Furthermore, when the net emissions are included in the assessment of GHG emissions from bioenergy, the ILUC mitigation scenarios often abate GHG emissions compared to gasoline. But sustainable intensification is required to attain GHG abatement potentials of 90% or higher. A qualitative assessment of the impacts on biodiversity, water quantity and quality, soil quality and air quality also emphasizes the importance of sustainable intensification.     

Modelling impacts of forest bioenergy use on ecosystem sustainability: Lammi LTER region,southern Finland

Increasing the use of forest biomass for energy production is an important mitigation strategy against climate change. Sustainable use of natural resources requires that these policies are evaluated, planned and implemented, taking into account the boundary conditions of the ecological systems affected. This paper describes the development and application of a quantitative modelling framework for evaluating integrated impacts of forest biomass removal scenarios on four key environmental sustainability/ecosystem service indicators: (i) carbon sequestration and balance, (ii) soil nutrient balances (base cations and nitrogen), (iii) nutrient leaching to surface waters (nitrogen and phosphorus), and (iv) dead wood biomass (used as proxy indicator for impacts on species diversity). The system is based on the use of spatial data sets, mass balance calculations, loading coefficients and dynamic modelling. The approach is demonstrated using data from an intensively studied region (Hämeenlinna municipality) encompassing the Lammi LTER (Long-Term Ecosystem Research) site in southern Finland. Forest biomass removal scenarios were derived from a management-oriented large-scale forestry model (MELA) based on sample plot and stand-level data from national forest inventories. These scenarios have been developed to guide future Finnish forest management with respect to bioenergy use. Using harvest residues for district heat production reduced fossil carbon emissions but also the carbon sink of forests in the case study area. Calculations of the net removal of base cations of the different scenarios ranged between −36 to −43 meq m⁻² a⁻¹, indicating that the supply of base cations (soil weathering + deposition) would be enough to sustain also energy-wood harvesting. Greatly increased nutrient removal values and increasing nitrogen limitation problems were however predicted. Clear-cuttings and site preparation were predicted to increase the load of total nitrogen (4.0%) and total phosphorus (4.5%) to surface waters, compared with background leaching. The amount of dead wood has been identified as a key factor for forest species diversity in Finland. A scenario maximising harvest residues used for bioenergy production, would decrease stem dead wood biomass by about 40%, compared with a business-as-usual scenario. Clear trade-off situations could be observed in the case study area between maximising the use of energy-wood and minimising impacts on species diversity, soil carbon and nutrient stores, and nutrient leaching. The developed model system allows seeking for optimised solutions with respect to different management options and sustainability considerations.     

Modelling soil quality changes in Europe. An impact assessment of land use change on soil quality in Europe

Soil is one of the most important and most complex natural resources, but current developments (urbanisation, erosion and climate change) increasingly threaten this valuable resource in Europe and worldwide. The main objective of this paper is to introduce how changes in soil quality were modelled in the SENSOR project through two indicators: soil carbon content and soil water erosion. Indicators were calculated using state variables and model variables that were mainly derived from the CLUE model which predicts land use change in response to policy scenarios.In the case of erosion, accuracy of the calculations was evaluated by comparing GIS data with the results of the PESERA project. The PESERA and SENSOR models predicted comparable soil loss for the first year in the NUTS-X regions of Europe that were analysed. The higher resolution national soil-loss prediction USLE map largely overestimated the amount of soil loss compared to the PESERA and the SENSOR models in the NUTS-X regions of Hungary. This discrepancy may result from technical or methodological differences such as the spatial reference framework (NUTS-X regions), spatial resolution or levels of data aggregation.The soil organic carbon loss predictions for the NUTS-X regions of Europe are displayed on maps and background data are given in tables. The greatest decreases in soil carbon content may be expected in some regions of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, south-eastern UK and eastern Germany. The greatest increases in soil carbon content may be expected in central and eastern parts of the UK, in Ireland, in northern and central Sweden and Estonia, in Greece, in central and southern Italy, in the island of Sardinia and in some regions of Spain.As erosion strongly reduces soil productivity these predictions have not only environmental but also socio-economic implications. The results presented in this paper could be used at EU level to locate regions where negative changes in soil quality can be expected.     

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown.     

Modelling climate response to historical land cover change

In order to estimate the effect of historical land cover change (deforestation) on climate, we perform a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity – CLIMBER-2. We focus on the biophysical effect of the land cover change on climate and do not explicitly account for the biogeochemical effect. A dynamic scenario of deforestation during the last millennium is formulated based on the rates of land conversion to agriculture. The deforestation scenario causes a global cooling of 0.35 °C with a more notable cooling of the northern hemisphere (0.5 °C). The cooling is most pronounced in the northern middle and high latitudes, especially during the spring season. To compare the effect of deforestation on climate with other forcings, climate responses to the changing atmospheric CO₂ concentration and solar irradiance are also analysed. When all three factors are taken into account, dynamics of northern hemisphere temperature during the last 300 years within the model are generally in agreement with the observed (reconstructed) temperature trend. We conclude that the impact of historical land cover changes on climate is comparable with the impact of the other climate forcings and that land cover forcing is important for reproducing historical climate change.     

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4 °C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2 °C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.     

基于土地利用变化的玛纳斯河流域景观生态风险评价

摘要：随着人类活动范围日益扩张和强度增加,景观生态风险评价已经成为预测和衡量生态环境质量和动态演化的重要手段。本文以玛纳斯河流域（简称玛河流域）为研究区,选取2000、2005、2010和2015年4期Landsat TM/ETM遥感影像,运用ENVI软件对研究区土地利用类型进行解译,定量分析流域近15年来土地利用动态变化特征,基于景观格局指数,采用地统计学方法,探究玛河流域景观生态风险程度及时空分异特征。结果表明：（1）2000—2015年,玛河流域景观格局发生了较大变化,耕地景观面积增加最多（2638.31 km^2）,主要由草地和未利用地转入;未利用地景观面积减少最多（2559.99 km^2）,主要转化成了草地、耕地和林地;（2）将流域景观生态风险划分为5个等级,研究期内流域低、中风险区面积增加而较高、高风险区面积减少,整体景观生态风险指数减小,所以研究区生态环境在整体上呈现好转;（3）2000—2005年、2010—2015年玛河流域在景观风险分布格局上发生较小变化,但2005—2010年流域景观风险分布格局发生较大变化,主要是中、较高和高风险区向流域南北方向分散并转移,低风险区向流域北部转移。     

Climate variability masks the impacts of land use change on nutrient export in a suburbanizing watershed

Suburbanization negatively impacts aquatic systems by altering hydrology and nutrient loading. These changes interact with climate and aquatic ecosystem processes to alter nutrient flux dynamics. We used a long term data set (1993–2009) to investigate the influence of suburbanization, climate, and in-stream processes on nitrogen and phosphorus export in rivers draining the Ipswich and Parker River watersheds in northeastern MA, USA. During this timeframe population density increased in these watersheds by 14 % while precipitation varied by 46 %. We compared nutrient export patterns from the two larger watersheds with those from two nested headwater catchments collected over a nine year period (2001–2009). The headwater catchments were of contrasting, but stable, land uses that dominate the larger watersheds (suburban and forested). Despite ongoing land use change and an increase in population density in the mainstem watersheds, we did not detect an increase in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) or PO₄ concentration or export over the 16-year time period. Inter-annual climate and associated runoff variability was the major control. Annual DIN and PO₄ export increased with greater annual precipitation in the Ipswich and the Parker River watersheds, as well as the forested headwater catchment. In contrast, annual DIN export fluxes from the suburban headwater catchment were less affected by precipitation variability, with inter-annual export fluxes negatively correlated with mean annual temperature. The larger watershed exports diverged from headwater exports, particularly during summer, low-flow periods, suggesting retention of DIN and PO₄. Our study shows suburban headwater exports respond to inter-annual variation in runoff and climate differently than forested headwater exports, but the impacts from headwater streams could be buffered by the river network. The net effect is that inter-annual variation and network buffering can mitigate higher nutrient exports from larger suburbanizing watersheds over decadal time periods.     

基于土壤特征和土地利用变化的土壤质量评价最小数据集确定

进行土壤质量评价前,必须先从大量土壤理化、生物学参数中严格选取对土壤质量敏感的评价参数最小数据集(MDS)。考虑到目前经济转型期我国剧烈的土地利用变化对各种土壤过程的深刻影响,通过以下3步选取土壤质量评价MDS:通过主成分分析(PCA)计算各土壤参数在所有特征值≥1的主成分上的综合荷载;通过多变量方差分析定量了土地利用变化对各土壤参数的贡献;通过均值多重比较确定了土地利用年限对土壤性质的定量影响。最后经过线性变换、分组、相关分析检验等过程,得到一个能最大限度的代表所有候选土壤参数而又尽可能少的损失这些候选参数所包含的土壤质量信息的最小数据集。该土壤质量评价MDS因子选取方法能很好地整合土地利用变化的综合定量影响,同时具有很好的灵活性、可扩展性并能外推到其它地区。通过将该方法分别应用在1985年及2004年采样分析的两套数据各12个土壤候选参数集上,得到了各包含6个因子的MDS及其在20a尺度上的变化规律,发现MDS因子略有不同,但变化不大。     

Modelling important areas for breeding waders as a tool to target conservation and minimise conflicts with land use change

Breeding waders are high profile species of conservation concern because of their declining populations. Their future depends on the outcomes of land-use policy and local management decisions. However, the low spatial resolution of extensive data on wader occurrence is poorly suited to directing conservation initiatives or to minimising detrimental impacts arising from land-use changes such as forest expansion. We used statistical models to produce high-resolution maps of predicted wader abundance in Britain and tested whether these were sufficiently accurate to be used for decision making. Random forest regression trees were developed using Bird Atlas data modelled with a range of environmental data sets to predict the relative abundances of ten species of breeding wader across Britain at 1-km square resolution. Similar analytical frameworks could usefully be applied in other geographical areas.Correlations with Bird Atlas metrics and other independent data indicate that these predictive models worked best for Curlew Numenius arquata and Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus. Model performance was poorer for species with more restricted distributions and/or habitat requirements, such as Greenshank Tringa nebularia and Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula. The precision of model predictions was also limited by the rescaling of data to 1-km square resolution.To facilitate practical and consistent interpretation by stakeholders influencing the status of breeding waders, model outputs were categorised into five discrete strata of relative abundance. These strata were used to produce sensitivity maps (available at https://app.bto.org/wader-map/), primarily to inform high-level policy decisions. The model outputs were also used to investigate broad-scale associations of breeding wader distribution with landscapes and land uses. These show that high proportions of populations (relative to their extent) are supported by areas with comparatively low predation risk (e.g. islands and grouse moors) and also by nature reserves. At more local scales, the sensitivity maps can be used to help decide on the levels of scrutiny required to assess development proposals (e.g. for establishment of new tree planting).     

A multi-modeling approach to evaluating climate and land use change impacts in a Great Lakes River Basin

River ecosystems are driven by linked physical, chemical, and biological subsystems, which operate over different temporal and spatial domains. This complexity increases uncertainty in ecological forecasts, and impedes preparation for the ecological consequences of climate change. We describe a recently developed “multi-modeling” system for ecological forecasting in a 7600 km² watershed in the North American Great Lakes Basin. Using a series of linked land cover, climate, hydrologic, hydraulic, thermal, loading, and biological response models, we examined how changes in both land cover and climate may interact to shape the habitat suitability of river segments for common sport fishes and alter patterns of biological integrity. In scenario-based modeling, both climate and land use change altered multiple ecosystem properties. Because water temperature has a controlling influence on species distributions, sport fishes were overall more sensitive to climate change than to land cover change. However, community-based biological integrity metrics were more sensitive to land use change than climate change; as were nutrient export rates. We discuss the implications of this result for regional preparations for climate change adaptation, and the extent to which the result may be constrained by our modeling methodology.     

Climate and land use change impacts on Mediterranean high-mountain vegetation in the Apennines since the 1950s

Background: High-mountain ecosystems are centres of plant diversity that are particularly sensitive to land-use and climate change.

Aims: We investigated the ecological trends associated with land use and climate change since the 1950s in different vegetation types in high-mountain habitats in the central Apennines.

Methods: We analysed temporal changes in: Pinus mugo scrub, calcareous subalpine grasslands and alpine scree vegetation, comparing historical and recent vegetation records from vegetation plots from two periods (1955–1980 and 1990–2014) for their ecological indicator values (Landolt temperature and nutrient indicators) and structural traits (growth forms) over time using generalised linear models (GLMs).

Results: We observed significant temporal differences in the ecology and structure of the analysed habitats. In the Pinus mugo scrub we detected a reduction of subalpine and herbaceous species and in calcareous alpine screes we observed an increment of the lower montane, montane and subalpine species and of dwarf shrubs. Conversely, subalpine grasslands were stable over time.

Conclusions: Ecological changes that have occurred in the Central Apennines, following changes in type and intensity of land use and recent warming are consistent with those observed in other European mountains, for which climate and land-use changes are claimed as the main driving forces.     

Challenges in using land use and land cover data for global change studies

Land use and land cover data play a central role in climate change assessments. These data originate from different sources and inventory techniques. Each source of land use/cover data has its own domain of applicability and quality standards. Often data are selected without explicitly considering the suitability of the data for the specific application, the bias originating from data inventory and aggregation, and the effects of the uncertainty in the data on the results of the assessment. Uncertainties due to data selection and handling can be in the same order of magnitude as uncertainties related to the representation of the processes under investigation. While acknowledging the differences in data sources and the causes of inconsistencies, several methods have been developed to optimally extract information from the data and document the uncertainties. These methods include data integration, improved validation techniques and harmonization of classification systems. Based on the data needs of global change studies and the data availability, recommendations are formulated aimed at optimal use of current data and focused efforts for additional data collection. These include: improved documentation using classification systems for land use/cover data; careful selection of data given the specific application and the use of appropriate scaling and aggregation methods. In addition, the data availability may be improved by the combination of different data sources to optimize information content while collection of additional data must focus on validation of available data sets and improved coverage of regions and land cover types with a high level of uncertainty. Specific attention in data collection should be given to the representation of land management (systems) and mosaic landscapes.     

Assessment of land use impacts on the natural environment

Goal, Scope and Background  

Land use is an economic activity that generates large benefits for human society. One side effect, however, is that it has caused many environmental problems throughout history and still does today. Biodiversity, in particular, has been negatively influenced by intensive agriculture, forestry and the increase in urban areas and infrastructure. Integrated assessment such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), thus, incorporate impacts on biodiversity. The main objective of this paper is to develop generic characterization factors for land use types using empirical information on species diversity from Central Europe, which can be used in the assessment method developed in the first part of this series of paper.     

Evaluating sustainability impacts of critical mineral extractions: Integration of life cycle sustainability assessment and SDGs frameworks

The extraction of critical minerals used in clean technologies has profound impacts on sustainable development goals (SDGs). Life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA) is used to evaluate the sustainability impacts of products and services, but few frameworks exist to support SDGs assessment for the “green minerals” extraction. Here, we propose a mining-specific framework identifying linkages between LCSA and SDGs, along with a process to integrate methods and data. As a proof of concept, we assess the LCSA performance and local-community level SDG impacts of a nickel mining project in Indonesia. Integrating remote sensing, media sources, stakeholder's data, and expert opinion, we find that LCSA encompasses all 17 goals but only a subset of targets and indicators. The study highlights the need to incorporate indigenous people's perspectives in both LCSA and SDG assessments, and points to priority areas for improving life cycle sustainability and SDG outcomes: fighting corruption, protecting cultural heritage, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We suggest that this framework can inform corporate social responsibility activities, as well as consumer choices for low-carbon technologies.