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2.
We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2 degrees C), 15-19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally-averaged from 2995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses. 相似文献
3.
Soil is one of the most important and most complex natural resources, but current developments (urbanisation, erosion and climate change) increasingly threaten this valuable resource in Europe and worldwide. The main objective of this paper is to introduce how changes in soil quality were modelled in the SENSOR project through two indicators: soil carbon content and soil water erosion. Indicators were calculated using state variables and model variables that were mainly derived from the CLUE model which predicts land use change in response to policy scenarios.In the case of erosion, accuracy of the calculations was evaluated by comparing GIS data with the results of the PESERA project. The PESERA and SENSOR models predicted comparable soil loss for the first year in the NUTS-X regions of Europe that were analysed. The higher resolution national soil-loss prediction USLE map largely overestimated the amount of soil loss compared to the PESERA and the SENSOR models in the NUTS-X regions of Hungary. This discrepancy may result from technical or methodological differences such as the spatial reference framework (NUTS-X regions), spatial resolution or levels of data aggregation.The soil organic carbon loss predictions for the NUTS-X regions of Europe are displayed on maps and background data are given in tables. The greatest decreases in soil carbon content may be expected in some regions of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, south-eastern UK and eastern Germany. The greatest increases in soil carbon content may be expected in central and eastern parts of the UK, in Ireland, in northern and central Sweden and Estonia, in Greece, in central and southern Italy, in the island of Sardinia and in some regions of Spain.As erosion strongly reduces soil productivity these predictions have not only environmental but also socio-economic implications. The results presented in this paper could be used at EU level to locate regions where negative changes in soil quality can be expected. 相似文献
4.
Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant
and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this
paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses
of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land
use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century;
(2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered
agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components)
explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM)
is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses
reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices
as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered
agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy
forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong
increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown. 相似文献
5.
Suburbanization negatively impacts aquatic systems by altering hydrology and nutrient loading. These changes interact with climate and aquatic ecosystem processes to alter nutrient flux dynamics. We used a long term data set (1993–2009) to investigate the influence of suburbanization, climate, and in-stream processes on nitrogen and phosphorus export in rivers draining the Ipswich and Parker River watersheds in northeastern MA, USA. During this timeframe population density increased in these watersheds by 14 % while precipitation varied by 46 %. We compared nutrient export patterns from the two larger watersheds with those from two nested headwater catchments collected over a nine year period (2001–2009). The headwater catchments were of contrasting, but stable, land uses that dominate the larger watersheds (suburban and forested). Despite ongoing land use change and an increase in population density in the mainstem watersheds, we did not detect an increase in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) or PO 4 concentration or export over the 16-year time period. Inter-annual climate and associated runoff variability was the major control. Annual DIN and PO 4 export increased with greater annual precipitation in the Ipswich and the Parker River watersheds, as well as the forested headwater catchment. In contrast, annual DIN export fluxes from the suburban headwater catchment were less affected by precipitation variability, with inter-annual export fluxes negatively correlated with mean annual temperature. The larger watershed exports diverged from headwater exports, particularly during summer, low-flow periods, suggesting retention of DIN and PO 4. Our study shows suburban headwater exports respond to inter-annual variation in runoff and climate differently than forested headwater exports, but the impacts from headwater streams could be buffered by the river network. The net effect is that inter-annual variation and network buffering can mitigate higher nutrient exports from larger suburbanizing watersheds over decadal time periods. 相似文献
6.
Land use and land cover data play a central role in climate change assessments. These data originate from different sources and inventory techniques. Each source of land use/cover data has its own domain of applicability and quality standards. Often data are selected without explicitly considering the suitability of the data for the specific application, the bias originating from data inventory and aggregation, and the effects of the uncertainty in the data on the results of the assessment. Uncertainties due to data selection and handling can be in the same order of magnitude as uncertainties related to the representation of the processes under investigation. While acknowledging the differences in data sources and the causes of inconsistencies, several methods have been developed to optimally extract information from the data and document the uncertainties. These methods include data integration, improved validation techniques and harmonization of classification systems. Based on the data needs of global change studies and the data availability, recommendations are formulated aimed at optimal use of current data and focused efforts for additional data collection. These include: improved documentation using classification systems for land use/cover data; careful selection of data given the specific application and the use of appropriate scaling and aggregation methods. In addition, the data availability may be improved by the combination of different data sources to optimize information content while collection of additional data must focus on validation of available data sets and improved coverage of regions and land cover types with a high level of uncertainty. Specific attention in data collection should be given to the representation of land management (systems) and mosaic landscapes. 相似文献
7.
River ecosystems are driven by linked physical, chemical, and biological subsystems, which operate over different temporal and spatial domains. This complexity increases uncertainty in ecological forecasts, and impedes preparation for the ecological consequences of climate change. We describe a recently developed “multi-modeling” system for ecological forecasting in a 7600 km 2 watershed in the North American Great Lakes Basin. Using a series of linked land cover, climate, hydrologic, hydraulic, thermal, loading, and biological response models, we examined how changes in both land cover and climate may interact to shape the habitat suitability of river segments for common sport fishes and alter patterns of biological integrity. In scenario-based modeling, both climate and land use change altered multiple ecosystem properties. Because water temperature has a controlling influence on species distributions, sport fishes were overall more sensitive to climate change than to land cover change. However, community-based biological integrity metrics were more sensitive to land use change than climate change; as were nutrient export rates. We discuss the implications of this result for regional preparations for climate change adaptation, and the extent to which the result may be constrained by our modeling methodology. 相似文献
8.
Background: High-mountain ecosystems are centres of plant diversity that are particularly sensitive to land-use and climate change. Aims: We investigated the ecological trends associated with land use and climate change since the 1950s in different vegetation types in high-mountain habitats in the central Apennines. Methods: We analysed temporal changes in: Pinus mugo scrub, calcareous subalpine grasslands and alpine scree vegetation, comparing historical and recent vegetation records from vegetation plots from two periods (1955–1980 and 1990–2014) for their ecological indicator values (Landolt temperature and nutrient indicators) and structural traits (growth forms) over time using generalised linear models (GLMs). Results: We observed significant temporal differences in the ecology and structure of the analysed habitats. In the Pinus mugo scrub we detected a reduction of subalpine and herbaceous species and in calcareous alpine screes we observed an increment of the lower montane, montane and subalpine species and of dwarf shrubs. Conversely, subalpine grasslands were stable over time. Conclusions: Ecological changes that have occurred in the Central Apennines, following changes in type and intensity of land use and recent warming are consistent with those observed in other European mountains, for which climate and land-use changes are claimed as the main driving forces. 相似文献
9.
Goal, Scope and Background Land use is an economic activity that generates large benefits for human society. One side effect, however, is that it has
caused many environmental problems throughout history and still does today. Biodiversity, in particular, has been negatively
influenced by intensive agriculture, forestry and the increase in urban areas and infrastructure. Integrated assessment such
as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), thus, incorporate impacts on biodiversity. The main objective of this paper is to develop
generic characterization factors for land use types using empirical information on species diversity from Central Europe,
which can be used in the assessment method developed in the first part of this series of paper. 相似文献
10.
PurposeGuidance is needed on best-suited indicators to quantify and monitor the man-made impacts on human health, biodiversity and resources. Therefore, the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative initiated a global consensus process to agree on an updated overall life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) framework and to recommend a non-comprehensive list of environmental indicators and LCIA characterization factors for (1) climate change, (2) fine particulate matter impacts on human health, (3) water consumption impacts (both scarcity and human health) and 4) land use impacts on biodiversity.MethodsThe consensus building process involved more than 100 world-leading scientists in task forces via multiple workshops. Results were consolidated during a 1-week Pellston Workshop? in January 2016 leading to the following recommendations.Results and discussionLCIA framework: The updated LCIA framework now distinguishes between intrinsic, instrumental and cultural values, with disability-adjusted life years (DALY) to characterize damages on human health and with measures of vulnerability included to assess biodiversity loss. Climate change impacts: Two complementary climate change impact categories are recommended: (a) The global warming potential 100 years (GWP 100) represents shorter term impacts associated with rate of change and adaptation capacity, and (b) the global temperature change potential 100 years (GTP 100) characterizes the century-scale long term impacts, both including climate-carbon cycle feedbacks for all climate forcers. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) health impacts: Recommended characterization factors (CFs) for primary and secondary (interim) PM2.5 are established, distinguishing between indoor, urban and rural archetypes. Water consumption impacts: CFs are recommended, preferably on monthly and watershed levels, for two categories: (a) The water scarcity indicator “AWARE” characterizes the potential to deprive human and ecosystems users and quantifies the relative Available WAter REmaining per area once the demand of humans and aquatic ecosystems has been met, and (b) the impact of water consumption on human health assesses the DALYs from malnutrition caused by lack of water for irrigated food production. Land use impacts: CFs representing global potential species loss from land use are proposed as interim recommendation suitable to assess biodiversity loss due to land use and land use change in LCA hotspot analyses.ConclusionsThe recommended environmental indicators may be used to support the UN Sustainable Development Goals in order to quantify and monitor progress towards sustainable production and consumption. These indicators will be periodically updated, establishing a process for their stewardship. 相似文献
11.
We present an analysis of direct land use change (dLUC) resulting from the conversion of semiarid woodlands in Brazil and India to Jatropha curcas, a perennial biofuel crop. The sites examined include prosopis woodlands, managed for woodfuel production under periodic coppicing, in southern India, and unmanaged caatinga woodlands in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. The jatropha plantations under consideration include pruned and unpruned stands and ranged from 2 to 4 years of age. Stocks of carbon in aboveground (AG) pools, including woody biomass, coarse debris, leaf litter, and herbaceous matter, as well as soil organic carbon (SOC) were evaluated. The jatropha plantations store 8–10 tons of carbon per hectare (t C ha ?1) in AG biomass and litter when managed with regular pruning in both India and Brazil. Unpruned trees, only examined in Brazil, store less biomass (and carbon), accumulating just 3 t C ha ?1 in AG pools. The two woodlands that were replaced with jatropha show substantial differences in carbon pools: prosopis contains ~11 t C ha ?1 in AG stocks of carbon, which was very close to the jatropha stand which replaced it. In contrast, caatinga stores ~35 t C ha ?1 in AG biomass. Moreover, no change in SOC was detected in land that was converted from Prosopis to jatropha. As a result, there is no detectable change in AG carbon stocks at the sites in South India where jatropha replaced prosopis woodlands. In contrast, large losses of AG carbon were detected in Central Brazil where jatropha replaced native caatinga woodlands. These losses represent a carbon debt that would take 10–20 years to repay. 相似文献
12.
Effective environmental management requires accurate prediction of the probable individual, population, and ecosystem responses associated with environmental hazards. While much is known about the short-term physiological impacts of toxicants at the individual level, little is known about the long-term responses of populations. This occurs, in part, because of the costs and difficulties associated with completing long-term studies. In the absence of such field data it is argued that modelling both bridges the existing information gap and provides a credible means of predicting long-term population responses. An individuals-based Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar) population dynamics model, adjusted to include laboratory-derived acute toxicity data, is used to measure recovery time in a population subjected to concentrations and durations of copper exposure characteristic of an accidental release of mine tailings. Selected recovery criteria are proposed and discussed in terms of their suitability for use in environmental risk assessment. The resulting model data are used to estimate population exposure-response functions and, for purposes of environmental risk assessment, to describe the cumulative probability distribution of in-situ environmental damage. The output of the model suggests a recovery time of 15 to 20 years and significant increases in the variability of post-perturbation population levels. 相似文献
13.
A conceptual framework is proposed for assessing and managing the ecosystem impacts of climate change. The framework can be used by ecosystem managers to systematically assess the potential adverse impacts of future climate change on ecosystems, and identify best adaptation strategies for alleviating those impacts. The proposed framework: (1) determines the acceptability of the current state of the ecosystem; (2) specifies climate change scenarios; (3) assesses the ecosystem impacts of the scenarios; and (4) identifies the best adaptation strategies for alleviating unacceptable impacts of the climate change scenarios. Concepts and methods employed in the framework include: (1) limits of acceptable change; (2) scenario analysis; (3) simulation; (4) Delphi method; (5) decision making under risk and uncertainty; (6) stochastic dominance; (7) multiple attribute evaluation; (8) Bayesian statistical inference; and (9) adaptive management. Implementation of the framework requires considerable technical, scientific, and other data/information that may not be available at this time, but is likely to become available in the future. It is recommended that a pilot program be initiated to test the proposed framework in a few targeted publicly managed ecosystems for which the requisite ecosystem data/information are available or can be readily obtained. Results of the pilot program would provide insights into the pros and cons of the framework and the conditions under which it is likely to be feasible. 相似文献
14.
Hydrological impacts of climate change upon the Elmley Marshes, southeast England, are simulated using a coupled hydrological/hydraulic
model developed using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 and calibrated to contemporary conditions. Predicted changes in precipitation, temperature,
radiation and wind speed from the UK Climate Impacts Programme associated with four emissions scenarios for the 2050s are
used to modify precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data. For each emissions scenario two sets of potential evapotranspiration
data are derived, one using changes in temperature (PET temp), the other incorporating changes in temperature, radiation and wind speed (PET trws). Results indicate drier conditions through the progressively higher emissions scenarios when compared to contemporary conditions.
Changes are particularly pronounced when using PET trws. Summer water tables are lower (PET temp 0.01–0.08 m; PET trws 0.07–0.27 m) and the duration of high winter water tables is reduced. Although water tables still intercept the surface in
winter when using PET temp, this ceases when PET trws is employed. Summer ditch water levels for the PET temp scenarios are lower (0.01–0.21 m) and in dry winters they do not reach mean field level. Under the PET trws scenarios summer and winter ditch water levels are lower by on average 0.21 and 0.30 m, respectively. Levels never reach
the elevation of the marsh surface. Lower groundwater and ditch water levels result in declines in the magnitude and duration
of surface inundation which is virtually eliminated with the PET trws scenarios. The changes in hydrological conditions simulated by the model are of sufficiently fine resolution to infer ecological
impacts which are likely to include the loss of some grassland species adapted to high water tables. Reductions in the extent
of surface water in spring, especially for the PET trws scenarios, are likely to reduce suitability for wading birds including lapwing ( Vanellus vanellus) and redshank ( Tringa totanus) for which the marshes are internationally renowned. 相似文献
15.
Purpose The inclusion of land-use activities in life cycle assessment (LCA) has been subject to much debate in the LCA community. Despite the recent methodological developments in this area, the impacts of land occupation and transformation on its long-term ability to produce biomass (referred to here as biotic production potential [BPP]) — an important endpoint for the Area of Protection (AoP) Natural Resources — have been largely excluded from LCAs partly due to the lack of life cycle impact assessment methods. Materials and methods Several possible methods/indicators for BPP associated with biomass, carbon balance, soil erosion, salinisation, energy, soil biota and soil organic matter (SOM) were evaluated. The latter indicator was considered the most appropriate for LCA, and characterisation factors for eight land use types at the climate region level were developed. Results and discussion Most of the indicators assessed address land-use impacts satisfactorily for land uses that include biotic production of some kind (agriculture or silviculture). However, some fail to address potentially important land use impacts from other life cycle stages, such as those arising from transport. It is shown that the change in soil organic carbon (SOC) can be used as an indicator for impacts on BPP, because SOC relates to a range of soil properties responsible for soil resilience and fertility. Conclusions The characterisation factors developed suggest that the proposed approach to characterize land use impacts on BBP, despite its limitations, is both possible and robust. The availability of land-use-specific and biogeographically differentiated data on SOC makes BPP impact assessments operational. The characterisation factors provided allow for the assessment of land-use impacts on BPP, regardless of where they occur thus enabling more complete LCAs of products and services. Existing databases on every country’s terrestrial carbon stocks and land use enable the operability of this method. Furthermore, BPP impacts will be better assessed by this approach as increasingly spatially specific data are available for all geographical regions of the world at a large scale. The characterisation factors developed are applied to the case studies (Part D of this special issue), which show the practical issues related to their implementation. 相似文献
16.
The loss of biodiversity caused by human activity is assumed to alter ecosystem functioning. However our understanding of the magnitude of the effect of these changes on functional diversity and their impact on the dynamics of ecological processes is still limited. We analyzed the functional diversity of copro-necrophagous beetles under different conditions of land use in three Mexican biosphere reserves. In Montes Azules pastures, forest fragments and continuous rainforest were analyzed, in Los Tuxtlas rainforest fragments of different sizes were analyzed and in Barranca de Metztitlán two types of xerophile scrub with different degrees of disturbance from grazing were analyzed. We assigned dung beetle species to functional groups based on food relocation, beetle size, daily activity period and food preferences, and as measures of functional diversity we used estimates based on multivariate methods. In Montes Azules functional richness was lower in the pastures than in continuous rainforest and rainforest fragments, but fragments and continuous forest include functionally redundant species. In small rainforest fragments (<5 ha) in Los Tuxtlas, dung beetle functional richness was lower than in large rainforest fragments (>20 ha). Functional evenness and functional dispersion did not vary among habitat types or fragment size in these reserves. In contrast, in Metztitlán, functional richness and functional dispersion were different among the vegetation types, but differences were not related to the degree of disturbance by grazing. More redundant species were found in submontane than in crassicaule scrub. For the first time, a decrease in the functional diversity in communities of copro-necrophagous beetles resulting from changes in land use is documented, the potential implications for ecosystem functioning are discussed and a series of variables that could improve the evaluation of functional diversity for this biological group is proposed. 相似文献
17.
‘Mediterranean Temporary Ponds’ (MTP) constitutes a priority, substantially vulnerable and unstable habitat (Natura code: 3170*). In this article, the influences of climate change on the hydroperiod of two MTPs in Crete, have been quantitatively explored by using: (i) a physically based, semi-distributed lake basin model of Lake Kourna, where the hydrology of the lake is directly related to that of the adjacent MTP and (ii) a conceptual/mathematical model of an MTP in Omalos plateau. A water balance model was also set up to estimate net groundwater inflows for Lake Kourna and the basin. The water balance estimates and GIS tools were then used to set up the physically based model which was calibrated for the hydrological year 2005–2006 and validated for two periods: April–September 2005 and the hydrological year 2006–2007 (two split-sample tests). Calibration of the mathematical model was very good, while for the physically based model calibration was satisfactory. The two models were then setup and simulated for two future Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios: A2 (pessimistic) and B2 (more optimistic). The responses of Lake Kourna and Omalos MTP water levels and their hydroperiods were then predicted. Results for IPCC B2 and A2 climate scenarios show longer hydroperiod and smaller decreases in the future for Omalos MTP than in Lake Kourna MTP. Results for Lake Kourna MTP demonstrated a hydroperiod decrease of more than 52 days after the application of the IPCC scenarios. Scenario A2 does not present a significantly different higher impact on the MTPs’ hydroperiod. Guest editors: B. Oertli, R. Cereghino, A. Hull & R. Miracle Pond Conservation: From Science to Practice. 3rd Conference of the European Pond Conservation Network, Valencia, Spain, 14–16 May 2008. 相似文献
18.
Variation in plant functional traits has been related to variation in environmental conditions. In particular, the relationship between leaf traits and climate has received much attention. This paper presents a functional‐trait‐centred approach to identify potential impacts of climate and land use change on plant species assemblages. Using species atlas data, we modelled the relative frequencies of species with different leaf anatomies (LARF) as a function of observed climate and land use data on a regular spatial grid across Germany. Subsequently, we projected the geographical distribution of LARF with simulated climate and land use data for the late 21st century under two future scenarios. We used a conditional autoregressive regression model to account for spatially structured variation in LARF that remained unexplained by the environmental factors considered. We found a clear relationship between the climatic gradient of water availability and shifts in LARF: increasing water deficit was associated with a decreasing proportion of species with hygromorphic leaves in the composition and increasing proportions of species with scleromorphic and mesomorphic leaves. The variation in LARF due to land use was only small. Under future environmental scenarios the proportion of species with hygromorphic leaves was projected to decrease in all parts of Germany, whereas the proportions of species with sclero‐ and mesomorphic leaves were projected to increase on average. In particular, Germany's south‐western and north‐eastern areas were projected to experience functional change in LARF. Our study highlights the relationship between functional traits and plant species vulnerability to climate change. Our results suggest that the functional‐trait‐centred approach can provide a powerful additional modelling tool to estimate potential impacts of climate change on plant species assemblages. 相似文献
19.
PurposeLand use can cause significant impacts on ecosystems and natural resources. To assess these impacts using life cycle assessment (LCA) and ensure adequate decision-making, comprehensive national inventories of land occupation and transformation flows are required. Here, we aim at developing globally differentiated inventories of land use flows that can be used for primary use in life cycle impact assessment or national land planning. MethodsUsing publicly available data and inventory techniques, national inventories for several land use classes were developed. All land use classes were covered with the highest retrievable level of disaggregation within urban, forestry, agriculture and other land use classes, thus differentiating 21 land use classes. For illustrating the application of this newly developed inventory, two different application settings relevant to life cycle impact assessment were considered: the calculation of global normalisation references for 11 land use impact indicators related to soil quality assessment (adopting the methods recommended by the EU Commission) and the determination of generic globally applicable characterisation factors (CFs) resulting from aggregation of country-level CFs for situations for use when land use location is unknown. Results and discussionWe built national inventories of 21 land occupation and 17 land transformation flows for 225 countries in the world for the reference year 2010. Cross-comparisons with existing inventories of narrower scopes attested its consistency. Detailed analyses of the calculated global normalisation references for the 11 land use impact categories showed different patterns across the land use impact indicators for each country, thus raising attention on key land use impacts specific to each country. Furthermore, the upscaling of country-level CFs to global generic CFs using the land use inventory revealed discrepancies with other alternative approaches using land use data at different resolutions. ConclusionsIn this study, we made a first attempt at developing national inventories of land use flows with sufficient disaggregation level to enable the calculation of normalisation references and differentiated impacts. However, the findings also demonstrated the need to refine the consistency of the inventory, particularly in the combination of land cover and land use data, which should be harmonised in future studies, and to expand it with differentiated coverage of more land use flows relevant to impact assessment. 相似文献
20.
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - There is generally a mismatch in the land use classification of life cycle inventory (LCI) databases and life cycle impact assessment (LCIA)... 相似文献
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