Regional distribution of genetically modified organisms (GMOs)—Up-scaling the dispersal and persistence potential of herbicide resistant oilseed rape (Brassisca napus)

Most genetically modified (GM) crop plants are designed to be grown on large areas. However, empirical investigations for risk assessment are limited in their temporal and spatial extent. In the case of GM crop plants it is difficult to test the relevance of anticipated risks on the same spatial scale as the intended use. Processes which are difficult to assess experimentally include combinatory effects, interactions between different integration levels, persistence, long distance dispersal and occurrence of rare events. To a limited extent, it is possible to combine results of investigations on small spatial scales in a way that large-scale and long-term implications on the regional scale can be analysed by using modelling and extrapolation approaches. It is thus possible to indicate some of the involved risks which are not accessible otherwise.In this paper we present the results of an extrapolation methodology comprising several scales from the field size up to the landscape level. This methodology aimed at analysing the implications of a large-scale release of genetically modified oilseed rape (GM OSR). The approach consisted of an extrapolation scheme beginning with a landscape analysis which generated representative scenarios considering climate and OSR cultivation characteristics. For the spatial extent of several fields this information was applied in an individual-based model representing ontogeny, dispersal and persistence of cultivated, volunteers and feral oilseed rape. In a final step, simulation results were extrapolated to the region of Northern Germany.Here we focus on the model results which were extrapolated to the regional level by applying a set of ecological indicators which allowed to assess potential implications on this level. These indicators included the number and distribution of flowering GM plants and the dynamics of GM OSR seeds in the soil seedbank. Specific results related to the long-term dynamics in the seedbank and volunteer development. Model results emphasise the long-term consequences of GM OSR cultivation and the explicit necessity to regard high variability in potential GMO admixture. This has to be considered when developing landscape management schemes for co-existence.The extrapolation approach presented here, integrates different traits to assess effects of GMOs on large spatial scales with respect to persistence and dispersal. The developed methodology is equally applicable for other crops, regions and different agricultural conditions.     

An integrative methodology to predict dispersal of genetically modified genotypes in oilseed rape at landscape-level—A study for the region of Schleswig-Holstein,Germany

Potential environmental as well as socio-economic effects of the cultivation of genetically modified (GM) oilseed rape (OSR) may be caused by large-scale dispersal of transgenes. We present an up-scaling approach that was based on scenario assumptions concerning the percentage of GM cultivation and took into account natural and anthropogenic variation of involved dispersal processes. The applied methods include computer modelling and spatial analysis. A simulation model (GeneTraMP) was used to calculate the spatio-temporal pattern of the spread of a neutral transgene (without any specific function) in OSR. Basic scenario calculations were carried out for different spatial configurations covering 1 km² each and taking into account information on climate and cultivation systems of the region of the federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, Germany. For the exemplary regional study presented here, we analysed the numbers of flowering plants of GM OSR in different types of locations as predicted by the model. The results confirmed the expectation of a very high variability of GM occurrences at distinguishable intensity levels which were closely related to the proximity of areas of intended GM oilseed rape cultivation and may be described by a combination of management parameters and location type.The up-scaling method included a spatial analysis of the target region. Based on satellite images and digital maps, the structure of the region was analysed resulting in a map of Schleswig-Holstein that represents each single field, also including information on crop rotation, ownership and production systems. Applying GIS queries to this database, we identified the area of relevant location types. Both, the model results and the spatial data were used to predict the total numbers of flowering GM OSR plants for the region of Schleswig-Holstein. As an important feature, the up-scaling of modelling results to a larger scale allows for a comprehensive analysis by also enclosing regional parameters, as, for example the cropping density. The presented methods can support decision making if they are incorporated into the planning of an environmental monitoring of commercial GM crops or into life cycle assessment and cost–benefit analyses of GMO cultivation.     

Remote sensing as a data source to analyse regional implications of genetically modified plants in agriculture—Oilseed rape (Brassica napus) in Northern Germany

Remote sensing permits the identification of locations and area extent where particular crops are cultivated across larger regions. This requires the availability of crop- and region-specific algorithms. We developed an approach to identify oilseed rape fields in Northern Germany. The remote sensing data sources and main processing steps are described. The derived cultivation density information provides an overview of the fine-scale spatial structure and crop neighbourhood relations in Northern Germany as one of the main oilseed rape cultivation regions in Europe. Geographical Information System (GIS) analyses involving buffer operations allowed to identify those parts of the region, where the highest interaction potential of GM crops and conventional crops would occur if GM varieties were admitted for cultivation. Cultivation density and field sizes in combination were used to indicate the interaction intensity as a marker for observation requirement (environmental monitoring) and for those potential risks that relate to density parameter. Conclusions can be drawn for the feasibility of coexistence measures when neighbouring farmers have to co-operate to keep separation distances between GM crop cultivation and conventional varieties. Together with other data sources, the results of satellite image analysis can be used as input data for up-scaling small-scale model results. Remote sensing data allow to specify, which field density parameter must be chosen to cover the regional variability of cultivation conditions, in particular the regional distribution of field sizes and field density.     

Pollinators and pollination of oilseed rape crops (Brassica napus L.) in Ireland: ecological and economic incentives for pollinator conservation

Pollinators are beneficial for many wild and crop plants. As a mass-flowering crop, oilseed rape has received much focus in terms of its pollination requirements but despite a threefold increase in area of cultivation of this crop in Ireland over the past 5 years, little is known about its pollination here. We surveyed the flower visiting insects found in commercial winter oilseed rape fields and evaluated the importance of different pollinator groups, investigated the contribution of insect pollination to oilseed rape seed production, and estimated the economic value of insect pollination to the crop at a national level. Our data showed that winter oilseed rape is visited by a wide variety of insect species, including the honeybee, bumblebees, solitary bees, and hoverflies. The honeybee, Eristalis hoverflies and bumblebees (especially Bombus sensu stricto and B. lapidarius) were the best pollinators of winter oilseed rape based on the number of pollen grains they carry, visitation rates per flower and their relative abundance per field. Exclusion of pollinators resulted in a 27 % decrease in the number of seeds produced, and a 30 % decrease in seed weight per pod in winter crops, with comparable values from a spring oilseed rape field also. The economic value of insect pollination to winter oilseed rape was estimated as €2.6 million per annum, while the contribution to spring oilseed rape was €1.3 million, resulting in an overall value of €3.9 million per annum. We can suggest the appropriate conservation and management of both honeybees and wild pollinators in agricultural areas to ensure continued provision of pollination services to oilseed rape, as a decrease in insect numbers has the potential to negatively influence crop yields.     

Crop identity and memory effects on aboveground arthropods in a long‐term crop rotation experiment

Agricultural landscapes are globally dominated by monocultures under intensive management. This is one of the main reasons for biodiversity loss and insect population decline in many regions all over the world. Agroecosystem biodiversity in these areas can be enhanced by cropping system diversification, such as crop rotations. Yet, long‐term studies on effects of crop rotations on aboveground agrobiodiversity are lacking. We set up a 10‐year long‐term crop rotation experiment in Central Germany and monitored the temporal dynamics of aboveground arthropods over a full cultivation period to investigate influence of current and preceding crop identity and cropping system diversification on activity density, species richness, and community structure. We found that species composition was strongly influenced by currently grown crop although effect on arthropods varied between species groups. Especially, winter oilseed rape strongly affects arthropod community structure. Interestingly, we were also able to show an influence of the preceding crops, indicating an ecological memory effect in the aboveground arthropod community. Our results show that crop identity of both currently and previously grown crops in crop rotations may lead to an increase in arthropod activity density and changes in species composition. Diversified crop rotations including appropriate crops can be an easily implemented tool to increase arthropod biodiversity and biomass at large spatial and temporal scales, particularly in areas dominated by a single crop (e.g., wheat, maize). Our results may help to design optimized crop rotations for large‐scale enhancement of insect biodiversity in agroecosystems.     

Heterogeneity in the distribution of genetically modified and conventional oilseed rape within fields and seed lots

The implementation of co-existence in the commercialisation of GM crops requires GM and non-GM products to be segregated in production and supply. However, maintaining segregation in oilseed rape will be made difficult by the highly persistent nature of this species. An understanding of its population dynamics is needed to predict persistence and develop potential strategies for control, while to ensure segregation is being achieved, the production of GM oilseed rape must be accompanied by the monitoring of GM levels in crop or seed populations. Heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of oilseed rape has the potential to affect both control and monitoring and, although a universal phenomenon in arable weeds and harvested seed lots, spatial heterogeneity in oilseed rape populations remains to be demonstrated and quantified. Here we investigate the distribution of crop and volunteer populations in a commercial field before and during the cultivation of the first conventional oilseed rape (winter) crop since the cultivation of a GM glufosinate-tolerant oilseed rape crop (spring) three years previously. GM presence was detected by ELISA for the PAT protein in each of three morphologically distinguishable phenotypes: autumn germinating crop-type plants (3% GM), autumn-germinating 'regrowths' (72% GM) and spring germinating 'small-type' plants (17% GM). Statistical models (Poisson log-normal and binomial logit-normal) were used to describe the spatial distribution of these populations at multiple spatial scales in the field and of GM presence in the harvested seed lot. Heterogeneity was a consistent feature in the distribution of GM and conventional oilseed rape. Large trends across the field (50 x 400 m) and seed lot (4 x 1.5 x 1.5 m) were observed in addition to small-scale heterogeneity, less than 20 m in the field and 20 cm in the seed lot. The heterogeneity was greater for the 'regrowth' and 'small' phenotypes, which were likely to be volunteers and included most of the GM plants detected, than for the largely non-GM 'crop' phenotype. The implications of the volunteer heterogeneity for field management and GM-sampling are discussed.     

Regionalisation of climate variability used for modelling the dispersal of genetically modified oil seed rape in Northern Germany

The joint research project “Generic detection and extrapolation of genetically modified oilseed rape dispersal (GenEERA)” aimed at estimating the dispersal and persistence of genetically modified (GM) oilseed rape (Brassica napus) in a larger region by combining a small-scale individual-based model and an up-scaling approach, for which various data sources had to be evaluated to deal with local processes and spatial heterogeneities on the regional scale. The objective of the article at hand is to give a detailed account of the spatial variability of climate in Northern Germany (German Federal States of Brandenburg, Lower Saxony and Bremen, Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania, Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg). Based on this, a method was developed that includes both, the determination of representative oilseed rape fields for modelling the dispersal of GM oilseed rape at field scale, and the subsequent generalisation of the results to the landscape level on a regional scale. Accordingly, land characteristics which could be important for the dispersal and persistence of oilseed rape were regionalised within a GIS environment: The beginning of flowering was modelled by variogram analysis and kriging estimation and was used to select satellite images for the detection of rape fields and to determine the period for the individual based modelling. The monthly means (1961–1990) of precipitation (P), air temperature (T), and sunshine duration (S) were regionalised by WARD cluster analysis. The PTS-clusters were combined to four climatic regions which together with WARD clusters on wind speed and direction as well as with land use clusters (crop rotation and management), which were provided by other project partners, enabled to finally define eight regions with a maximum of internal homogeneity. A meteorological station was selected to represent each of these regions. The data on wind speed and direction (hourly means), precipitation, sunshine and air temperature (daily) measured at that location were provided for modelling growth, dispersal and persistence of genetically modified oilseed rape on selected fields on the local level. Linking each of the modelled sites with a map on ecoregions which integrates the spatial patterns of soils, elevation, vegetation and climate, the model results were considered by analogy reasoning to be valid for all those ecoregions which are represented by the modelling sites and, thus, could be spatially generalised.     

Effects of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant cropping systems on weed seedbanks in two years of following crops

The Farm Scale Evaluations (FSEs) showed that genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) cropping systems could influence farmland biodiversity because of their effects on weed biomass and seed production. Recently published results for winter oilseed rape showed that a switch to GMHT crops significantly affected weed seedbanks for at least 2 years after the crops were sown, potentially causing longer-term effects on other taxa. Here, we seek evidence for similar medium-term effects on weed seedbanks following spring-sown GMHT crops, using newly available data from the FSEs. Weed seedbanks following GMHT maize were significantly higher than following conventional varieties for both the first and second years, while by contrast, seedbanks following GMHT spring oilseed rape were significantly lower over this period. Seedbanks following GMHT beet were smaller than following conventional crops in the first year after the crops had been sown, but this difference was much reduced by the second year for reasons that are not clear. These new data provide important empirical evidence for longer-term effects of GMHT cropping on farmland biodiversity.     

Direct nitrous oxide emissions from oilseed rape cropping – a meta‐analysis

Oilseed rape is one of the leading feedstocks for biofuel production in Europe. The climate change mitigation effect of rape methyl ester (RME) is particularly challenged by the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during crop production, mainly as nitrous oxide (N₂O) from soils. Oilseed rape requires high nitrogen fertilization and crop residues are rich in nitrogen, both potentially causing enhanced N₂O emissions. However, GHG emissions of oilseed rape production are often estimated using emission factors that account for crop‐type specifics only with respect to crop residues. This meta‐analysis therefore aimed to assess annual N₂O emissions from winter oilseed rape, to compare them to those of cereals and to explore the underlying reasons for differences. For the identification of the most important factors, linear mixed effects models were fitted with 43 N₂O emission data points deriving from 12 different field sites. N₂O emissions increased exponentially with N‐fertilization rates, but interyear and site‐specific variability were high and climate variables or soil parameters did not improve the prediction model. Annual N₂O emissions from winter oilseed rape were 22% higher than those from winter cereals fertilized at the same rate. At a common fertilization rate of 200 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1, the mean fraction of fertilizer N that was lost as N₂O‐N was 1.27% for oilseed rape compared to 1.04% for cereals. The risk of high yield‐scaled N₂O emissions increased after a critical N surplus of about 80 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1. The difference in N₂O emissions between oilseed rape and cereal cultivation was especially high after harvest due to the high N contents in oilseed rape's crop residues. However, annual N₂O emissions of winter oilseed rape were still lower than predicted by the Stehfest and Bouwman model. Hence, the assignment of oilseed rape to the crop‐type classes of cereals or other crops should be reconsidered.     

Persistence of oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) outside of cultivated fields

It is widely assumed that most cultivated plants cannot persist in natural or semi-natural habitats. Most people thus assume that the plants growing outside of fields (in particular oilseed rape along roadsides) find their origins in the current or previous year’s cultivation of that crop. One consequence of this assumption is that the identity of plants growing on road verges is thought to reflect one of the cultivars currently or recently cultivated, while another consequence is the widespread belief that transgenic plants can be simply managed and controlled by stopping their cultivation. Our work shows that this assumption is false. We identify relict plants of a now unmarketable cultivar type of oilseed rape which have persisted in a semi-natural habitat (road verges) for at least 8 years according to farmer surveys in the studied area. More generally, we confirm that the dynamics of the feral oilseed rape plants of road verges is more complex than those resulting from spillage from agricultural machines or from neighbouring arable fields cultivated the previous year. Within the scope of transgenic oilseed rape cultivation, these results suggest that more studies on the dynamics of feral oilseed rape are needed in order to assess more precisely the risks of its invasiveness and its potential impact on genetic pollution between GM fields and non-GM fields. Received: 15 June 2000 / Accepted 31 July 2000     

转基因油菜的基因流及生态风险

综合评述了转基因油菜的基因流及其生态风险.油菜作为最早的转基因作物之一目前已在加拿大和澳大利亚大面积商业化应用.(常)异花授粉作物油菜的天然异交率可达30%左右,也易与其它芸苔属作物杂交,因此转基因油菜的生态风险已引起各国科学家的高度重视.转基因油菜主要通过与其野生近缘种的花粉交换和与非转基因油菜的花粉交换两种方式进行花粉的输出.基因可能逃逸到相关野生近缘种,但在大田环境下能够得到杂种的可能性很小;由于基因的漂流在油菜田块间确实存在,因此在种植转基因油菜的过程中必须考虑其间隔距离.     

Crop seed spillage along roads: a factor of uncertainty in the containment of GMO

Feral populations of crop species along roadsides contribute to the uncertainty regarding the containment of genetically modified (GM) crops, as the feral populations could promote the persistence of transgenes outside of cultivated fields. Roadside populations of several common crop species are known to occur far from arable fields, and the dispersal pathways that promote their recruitment in road verges are unclear. Human-aided dispersal, in particular adhesive dispersal by vehicles, has been suggested as a possible vector, but this has not yet been proven experimentally. We sampled the seed rain from vehicles inside two motorway tunnels in an urban environment to reveal the contribution of crop species to seeds unintentionally dispersed by traffic beyond agricultural production areas. Three species of arable crops, wheat Triticum aestivum , rye Secale cereale and oilseed rape Brassica napus , were among the most frequent species deposited by vehicles inside the motorway tunnels. Each of the three species was clearly more predominant in one direction of traffic. While seeds of Triticum aestivum and Secale cereale were primarily transported into the city, Brassica napus was significantly more abundant in samples from lanes leading out of the city. Seed sources in the local surroundings of the tunnels were virtually nonexistent, and the high magnitude of seed deposition combined with high seed weights suggests a dispersal mechanism different from other species in the sample, at least for Triticum aestivum and Secale cereale . This provides evidence that spillage during transport is a major driver for long-distance dispersal of crops. Our results suggest that seed dispersal by vehicles is the major driver in the recruitment of roadside populations of arable crops, providing a possible escape route for GM crops. Risk management should thus aim at curbing transport losses of GM crops.     

Pollinator sharing between mass-flowering oilseed rape and co-flowering wild plants: implications for wild plant pollination

Pollinating insects are not only important in wild plant pollination, but also in the production of a large number of crops. Oilseed rape production is increasing globally due to demands for biofuels which may have impacts on pollinating insects which visit the crop and on the pollination services delivered to co-flowering wild plants. In this study, we tested (1) the degree of pollinator sharing between oilseed rape and native wild plants in field margins and hedgerows and (2) the effects of oilseed rape on the quality of pollination service delivered to these wild plants. We found large overlap between flower visitors of wild plants and oilseed rape, but the composition of species overlap differed with respect to each wild plant species. Nearly all individual visitors caught on both the crop and foraging on wild species carried crop pollen, but more than half the insects also carried pollen from wild plants. However, very little oilseed rape pollen was deposited on wild plant stigmas. This shows that (1) oilseed rape overlaps in pollinator niche with most co-flowering wild plants, and (2) crop pollen deposition on wild plant stigmas is low which may indicate that it is unlikely to cause reductions in seed set of wild plants, although this was not measured here. Furthermore, wild plants in field margins and hedgerows are important sources of alternative forage for pollinating insects even when a crop is mass flowering, and we suggest maintenance and augmentation of field margins and hedgerows to provide alternative forage for pollinator conservation to continue provision of pollination services to both crops and wild plants.     

Weeds in fields with contrasting conventional and genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops. II. Effects on individual species

We compared the effects of the management of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) and conventional beet, maize and spring oilseed rape on 12 weed species. We sampled the seedbank before and after cropping. During the season we counted plants and measured seed rain and biomass. Ratios of densities were used to calculate emergence, survival, reproduction and seedbank change. Treatments significantly affected the biomass of six species in beet, eight in maize and five in spring oilseed rape. The effects were generally consistent, with biomass lower in GMHT beet and spring oilseed rape and higher in GMHT maize. With few exceptions, emergence was higher in GMHT crops. Subsequent survival was significantly lowered for eight species in beet and six in spring oilseed rape in the GMHT treatments. It was increased for five species in maize and one in spring oilseed rape. Significant effects on seedbank change were found for four species. However, for many species in beet and spring oilseed rape (19 out of 24 cases), seed densities were lower in the seedbank after GMHT cropping. These differences compounded over time would result in large decreases in population densities of arable weeds. In maize, populations may increase.     

Mapping of QTL for seed dormancy in a winter oilseed rape doubled haploid population

Following winter oilseed rape cultivation, considerable numbers of volunteer oilseed rape plants may occur in subsequent years in following crops. The appearance of volunteer oilseed rape plants is based on the capability of the seeds to become secondary dormant and to survive in this stage for many years in the soil. Genetic reduction of secondary seed dormancy in oilseed rape could provide a means to reduce the frequency of volunteer plants and especially the dispersal of transgenic oilseed rape. The objective of the present study was to analyse the inheritance of primary and secondary seed dormancy in a winter oilseed rape doubled haploid population derived from the cross Express 617 × R53 and to study correlations to other seed traits. Field experiments were performed in Germany for 2 years at two locations with two replicates. Seeds harvested from open pollinated plants were used for all analyses, including a laboratory test for seed dormancy. A previously developed molecular marker map of the doubled haploid population was used to map QTL of the relevant traits. For primary, secondary and total seed dormancy, the results showed significant effects of the genotypes and their interactions, with years and locations. Two, four and five QTL were detected for primary, secondary and total seed dormancy which explained 19, 35 and 42 % of the phenotypic variance, respectively. Results show that secondary seed dormancy is a heritable trait and that selection for low secondary seed dormancy is possible.     

Pollen-mediated intraspecific gene flow from herbicide resistant oilseed rape (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Brassica napus</Emphasis> L.)

The cultivation of genetically modified (GM) herbicide resistant oilseed rape (Brassica napus) has increased over the past few years. The transfer of herbicide resistance genes via pollen (gene flow) from GM crops to non-GM crops is of relevance for the realisation of co-existence of different agricultural cultivation forms as well as for weed management. Therefore the likelihood of pollen-mediated gene flow has been investigated in numerous studies. Despite the difficulty to compare different experiments with varying levels of outcrossing, we performed a literature search for world-wide studies on cross-fertilisation in fully fertile oilseed rape. The occurrence and frequency of pollen-mediated intraspecific gene flow (outcrossing rate) can vary according to cultivar, experimental design, local topography and environmental conditions. The outcrossing rate from one field to another depends also on the size and arrangement of donor and recipient populations and on the ratio between donor and recipient plot size. The outcrossing levels specified in the presented studies are derived mostly from experiments where the recipient field is either surrounding the donor field (continuous design) or is located as a patch at different distances from the donor field (discontinuous design). Reports of gene flow in Brassica napus generally show that the amount of cross-fertilisation decreases as the distance from the pollen source increases. The evidence given in various studies reveals that the bulk of GM cross-fertilisation occurs within the first 10 m of the recipient field. The removal of the first 10 m of a non-transgenic field facing a GM crop might therefore be more efficient for reducing the total level of cross-fertilisation in a recipient sink population than to recommend separation distances. Future experiments should investigate cross-fertilisation with multiple adjacent donor fields at the landscape level under different spatial distributions of rapeseed cultivars and different cropping systems. The level of cross-fertilisation occurring over the whole field is mainly important for co-existence and has not been investigated in agricultural scale experiments until now. Potential problems with herbicide resistant oilseed rape volunteers arising from intraspecific gene flow can be largely solved by the choice of suitable cultivars and herbicides as well as by soil management.     

Sustainable Cultivation Concepts for Domestic Energy Production from Biomass

Referee: Dr. J. Grant McLeod, Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Research Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, P.O. Box 1030 Swift Current, Saskatchewan S9H 3X2, Canada According to the European Union, biomass will play a major role in the substitution of fossil fuels with renewable resources. Biomass will contribute 83% to the increased use of renewable resources by the year 2010. In contrast to other solar energy sources, plant biomass is always available and can be converted into energy continuously. An important objective in the production of energy crops on arable farm land should be to realize a high net energy yield and fulfill obligations in the field of environmental protection. The “double cropping system” was developed to meet these obligations. Silaging as a conservation method for wet biomass makes this sustainable cultivation system possible. It includes a diverse array of crops and provides the opportunity to integrate rural organic wastes into this energy concept. The model presented, “the energy self supplying farm”, shows that it is possible to meet the energy consumption requirements of a livestock farming operation with energy crop production on 10 to 18% of the arable farm land. According to a new rape energy concept, a land resource requirement of roughly 10% is feasible if biomass residues from rape oil production for liquid fuels are also utilized for energy production. For a farm with livestock, anaerobic digestion technology is an appropriate technique to deliver heat and electricity for the farmstead. Digestion residues, used as fertilizer in energy crop production, results in an almost complete nutrient recycling. Energy output can be increased above the demand of the farm via the biogas reactor, using the total biomass produced with double cropping. Surplus electricity is supplied to the grid at a guaranteed price. Biomass is a domestic energy resource, and farmers have the chance to extend their function from a supplier of raw material to managers of domestic energy resources. Under the currently established framework, monetary return per hectare could be more than double with biomass energy production via biogas. This will allow the agricultural economy to recover and promote a sustainable regional development. In addition to being a convenient method of waste management, sustainable energy crop production can make a significant contribution to environmental protection and the improvement of the social and economic cohesion within a community.     

A pollen-dispersal experiment with transgenic oilseed rape. Estimation of the average pollen dispersal of an individual plant within a field

 In order to help establish a basis for the assessment of gene flow associated with the large-scale release of transgenic oilseed rape, we previously designed a method which makes it possible to retrieve the average pollen dispersal of a single plant from that of a large source plot. The ‘individual’ pollen distribution thus obtained is less dependent on the experimental design than pollen distributions usually published and could therefore be used to model the possible escape of a transgene from commercial transgenic crops. In this study we report on a field experiment set up to study the pollen dispersal from an herbicide-resistant transgenic variety of oilseed rape and to test the applicability of the method on the experimental data. Two techniques were used to determine the individual pollen dispersal, and their outcomes are compared. The results suggest that approximately half of the pollen produced by an individual plant fell within 3 m and that the probability of fertilisation afterwards decreased slowly along a negative exponential of the distance. Comparison with the global pollen distribution from the source plot indicates that pollen-dispersal distributions based on dispersal from whole plots instead of individual plants would have underestimated the proportion of pollen that was dispersed over average or long distances. Received: 20 September 1997 / Accepted: 28 October 1997     

Agricultural land use and Skylark Alauda arvensis: a case study linking a habitat association model to spatially explicit change scenarios

The development of forward scenarios is a useful method of envisaging the environmental implications of potential changes in land use, as a tool for policy development. In this paper, a spatially explicit case study is used to provide insight into the environmental impacts of Common Agricultural Policy reform on Skylark Alauda arvensis, a species which is widespread on arable farmland, breeds in crops and has declined in recent decades. A generalized linear mixed model was used to estimate Skylark breeding population densities in different crops, using survey data collected from farms in the east of England, supplemented by the literature. Model outputs were then used to predict Skylark densities in an East Anglian Joint Character Area dominated by arable cropping. Predicted densities were mapped at field level using GIS, based on actual cropping derived from Integrated Administration and Control System data collected for the administration of subsidy payments. Three future scenarios were then created, based on expert opinion of potential changes in cropping over the next 5 years, and potential changes in Skylark density mapped on the basis of the predicted changes in cropping patterns. Overall, Skylark densities were predicted to decrease on average by 11–14% under ‘market‐led’ (increasing wheat and oilseed rape, reduced set‐aside) and ‘energy crop’ (5% area under short rotation coppice) scenarios, but remained virtually unchanged under an ‘environment‐led’ (diverse cropping) scenario. The ‘market‐led’ scenario is closest to short‐term agricultural trajectories, but wider cultivation of biomass energy crops as modelled under the ‘energy crop’ scenario could occur in the medium term if energy policies are favourable. Appropriate mitigation strategies therefore need to be implemented if a continued decline in the Skylark population on lowland arable farmland is to be averted. The results provide a readily accessible visualization of the potential impacts of land‐use change for policy‐makers; similar techniques could be applied to visualize effects of changes arising through other drivers, including climate change.     

Modelling and estimating pollen movement in oilseed rape (Brassica napus) at the landscape scale using genetic markers

Understanding patterns of pollen movement at the landscape scale is important for establishing management rules following the release of genetically modified (GM) crops. We use here a mating model adapted to cultivated species to estimate dispersal kernels from the genotypes of the progenies of male-sterile plants positioned at different sampling sites within a 10 x 10-km oilseed rape production area. Half of the pollen clouds sampled by the male-sterile plants originated from uncharacterized pollen sources that could consist of both large volunteer and feral populations, and fields within and outside the study area. The geometric dispersal kernel was the most appropriate to predict pollen movement in the study area. It predicted a much larger proportion of long-distance pollination than previously fitted dispersal kernels. This best-fitting mating model underestimated the level of differentiation among pollen clouds but could predict its spatial structure. The estimation method was validated on simulated genotypic data, and proved to provide good estimates of both the shape of the dispersal kernel and the rate and composition of pollen issued from uncharacterized pollen sources. The best dispersal kernel fitted here, the geometric kernel, should now be integrated into models that aim at predicting gene flow at the landscape level, in particular between GM and non-GM crops.