Changes in the timing of births in Melbourne, Australia

2 10-year marriage cohorts from 2 surveys of married women in Melbourne were compared on their timing of the 1st and 2nd births. The results showed that women who were married in the early 1970s were much more likely to delay their first birth until about the 3rd or 4th year of marriage compared with women who married in the 1960s. This tendency to delay the 1st birth was probably aided by effective contraception, as it coincided with widespread use of the oral contraceptive. There was no difference in the timing of the 2nd birth in relation th the 1st birth between the 2 marriage cohorts. Women who delayed childbearing also preferred smaller families. Indeed, the increase in the % of women delaying childbearing appears to be synonymous with the trend toward the two-child family. Altough the number of married women in the labor force increased significantly from the early to the later cohort, a desire to work was not usually cited as the reason for delaying childbearing. Rather, economic reasons were most frequently mentioned for delaying childbearing.     

Age at marriage in Sri Lanka: stabilizing or declining?

Over the last four decades in Sri Lanka, age at first marriage for males increased marginally, and for females it rose considerably, but there has been no recent increase in female age at marriage. Among the younger cohorts, estimated ages at which some married indeed show a declining mean age at marriage. Coale-McNeil estimates indicate that there is no real decline in female age at marriage in Sri Lanka. Marriages were delayed as a result of economic hardship or increased mortality to the mid-1970s, but once the overall economy improved after 1977, more marriages took place. Female age at marriage in Sri Lanka remained slightly below 24 years, the age which is anticipated by younger cohorts, and this level is likely to persist for some time.     

Gender,Ethnicity, Marital Status,and Body Weight in the United States

Married individuals tend to be heavier than those who are unmarried, particularly men, and individuals in different ethnic categories vary in their involvement in marriage and in their body weights. We examined gender and ethnic differences in relationships between marital status and body weight using cross‐sectional data from the 1999–2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for 3,947 women and 4,019 men. The findings revealed that compared to married men in the same ethnic category, white divorced men, black never‐married men, and all Hispanic men except for widows had lower odds of being overweight. Compared to married women in the same ethnic category, white women's weights did not significantly differ by marital status, black separated women had greater odds of being overweight, and Hispanic never‐married women had lower odds of being overweight. Associations of marriage with body weight appear to be at least partly contingent upon gender and ethnicity, which may reflect larger societal patterns of involvement in marriage, commitment to family, and body‐weight norms and expectations.     

Explaining Marital Patterns and Trends in Namibia: A Regression Analysis of 1992, 2000 and 2006 Demographic and Survey Data

Background

Marriage is a significant event in life-course of individuals, and creates a system that characterizes societal and economic structures. Marital patterns and dynamics over the years have changed a lot, with decreasing proportions of marriage, increased levels of divorce and co-habitation in developing countries. Although, such changes have been reported in African societies including Namibia, they have largely remained unexplained.

Objectives and Methods

In this paper, we examined trends and patterns of marital status of women of marriageable age: 15 to 49 years, in Namibia using the 1992, 2000 and 2006 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data. Trends were established for selected demographic variables. Two binary logistic regression models for ever-married versus never married, and cohabitation versus married were fitted to establish factors associated with such nuptial systems. Further a multinomial logistic regression models, adjusted for bio-demographic and socio-economic variables, were fitted separately for each year, to establish determinants of type of union (never married, married and cohabitation).

Results and Conclusions

Findings indicate a general change away from marriage, with a shift in singulate mean age at marriage. Cohabitation was prevalent among those less than 30 years of age, the odds were higher in urban areas and increased since 1992. Be as it may marriage remained a persistent nuptiality pattern, and common among the less educated and employed, but lower odds in urban areas. Results from multinomial model suggest that marital status was associated with age at marriage, total children born, region, place of residence, education level and religion. We conclude that marital patterns have undergone significant transformation over the past two decades in Namibia, with a coexistence of traditional marriage framework with co-habitation, and sizeable proportion remaining unmarried to the late 30s. A shift in the singulate mean age is becoming distinctive in the Namibian society.     

Marriage as a reproductive contract: Patterns of marriage,divorce, and remarriage

Patterns of marriage, divorce, remarriage, and redivorce were examined in several representative Western cultures through survey questions and archival data to test the hypothesis that marriage and divorce can be understood as expressions of underlying gender-specific, fitness maximization strategies. Differences between males and females were found for the relationship between age and patterns of both marriage and divorce, with females being far more likely at almost all ages to initiate divorce proceedings than males. Once divorced, however, formerly married females were less likely to remarry than formerly married males. The presence of children from a prior marriage had the effect of further decreasing the likelihood of remarriage for females, but not for males. Formerly married males without children tended to remarry females who had never been married, whereas just the opposite was true for divorced males with children. Consistent with our view of marriage as a reproductive contract, the absence of children was not only conducive to divorce and remarriage, but appeared to increase the likelihood of redivorce as well.     

Divorce in the early years of marriage in England and Wales: results from a prospective study using linked records

A representative sample of over 1000 couples who married during 1979 in England and Wales was followed from the date of marriage until mid-1984 to investigate the characteristics of couples who divorce soon after marriage. Results of this 5 year study show that couples who apparently lived together before marriage had a below average chance of early divorce, whereas couples where the addresses of the partners before marriage were very close had a significantly high rate of early breakdown. The chance of early divorce was significantly above average for spouses marrying in their teens and for both husbands and wives who, at their marriage, belonged to social class 5 (work in unskilled manual occupations). Couples who married with a civil ceremony had an above average (and those marrying with a religious ceremony a below average) risk of early divorce, but such differences were found to be negligible on analyzing the results from a matched case-control study in which each "case" marriage (one which did end in early divorce) was matched with a "control" marriage (one which did not end in early divorce). There is substantial evidence that age at marriage and previous marital status of the marriage partners have a decided influence upon the propensity to divorce. 2 conclusions concerning fertility are more likely than the average married couple to have had a pre-maritally conceived child, and 2) that couples who divorce relatively quickly tend on average to have larger family sizes, even if children who were pre-martitally conceived are exluded.     

Time trends and determinants of completed family size in a rural community from the Basque area of Spain (1800-1969)

The focus of this work is the analysis of changes in completed family size and possible determinants of that size over time, in an attempt to characterize the evolution of reproductive patterns during the demographic transition. With this purpose in mind, time trends are studied in relation to the mean number of live births per family (as an indirect measure of fertility), using family reconstitution techniques to trace the reproductive history of each married woman. The population surveyed is a Spanish rural community called Lanciego, located at the southern end of the province of Alava (Basque Country). A total of 24,510 parish records of baptisms, marriages and burials made between 1800 and 1969 were examined to obtain the demographic data set. For each reconstituted family, the variables included in the study were the number of live births per family or family size (FAMS), year of marriage (YEAR), age at marriage of both partners (AMAN, AWOM), wife's age at the end of marriage (WEND), duration of marriage (MARD), age at first maternity (A1CH), length of reproductive span (REPS) and number of children dying before their first anniversary (MINF). Through a principal component analysis, three factors were found that explained more than 75% of the total variance. Association of variables in factors I and III was particularly useful in characterizing the variability of mean family size in pre-transitional, transitional and post-transitional cohorts. During demographic transition, a decreasing trend is observed in the variables FAMS, REPS and MINF, while variables AWOM, AMAN, WEND and A1CH show a tendency to increase over the 20th century. Results obtained by multiple regression analysis confirm that the best predictors of family size (dependent variable) were REPS and MINF, which between them explained over 85% of the total variation in FAMS (R2 = 0.853). In Lanciego, birth control seems to be present on the evidence of an increase in age at first maternity and a decrease in age at last parturition, indicating that the beginning of the reproductive span is delayed and its end is brought forward. Interaction between family size and infant mortality is discussed in the light of various hypotheses, including replacement of descendants, the so-called biological effect and the theory of r and k selection.     

Kinship and mate choice in a historic eastern Blue Ridge community, Madison County, Virginia

Potential mates analysis is difficult to apply to small historic populations that lack clear boundaries or regular vital event registration. Here I analyze the actual mate pool as an alternative way to identify causes of nonrandom mating when unmarried members are unknown. Factors influencing mate choice within a historic eastern Blue Ridge community in Madison County, Virginia, are examined for four marriage cohorts: 1850-1879, 1880-1899, 1900-1919, and 1920-1939. These factors include nuclear kin avoidance, preferred age differences between mates, and preferences for more distant kin. A simulation is used to recombine members of the cohort-specific pools of married individuals to generate the probabilities of various types of kin marriages. The pedigree and vital statistics data are derived from first-time marriage licenses filled by community members in Madison County from 1794 to 1939. The numbers of marriages examined for each cohort are 88, 120, 132, and 132, respectively; the mate pools constructed from the samples are viewed from the female perspective. The results generated by simulation on the actual mate pools consist of mean kinship coefficients, numbers of marriages between "allowed" kin types, and probabilities of these values when marriage is random with respect to kinship. The results indicate significantly high levels of inbreeding in all four marriage cohorts, primarily because of high levels of first-cousin marriages in the first three cohorts and of first-cousin once-removed marriages in the 1920 cohort. The observed mating patterns are discussed in terms of the social history of the Blue Ridge community and restrictions of the data.     

Reproduction: the Canadian family in transition

3 trends suggest that the reproductive function of the Canadian family is in transition. 1st, fertility has fallen and remains below the replacement level. In 1985, the total fertility rate was 1.67, the lowest in 60 years. Since 1971, it has not risen above 2.1 births/woman, the replacement level. 2nd, an increasing proportion of women are spending a larger part of their lives without having any children. In the 1981 census, 22% of ever-married women between 15 and 44 years had not yet borne children, compared with only 14% recorded in the 1961 census. While the proportion of women who are childless at the end of their reproductive years has risen only slightly, a larger number of women are postponing having children even as the risk of becoming sterile in the interim becomes greater. The combined effect of postponing both marriage and childbearing will most probably be to increase the proportion of women remaining without children. The 3rd trend is the increasing proportion of women who are having children without getting married. Among the consequences of premarital pregnancy are the stress on single mothers, the need for social assistance, the cost of maintenance programs, and the need for more child care. These changes in attitude toward marriage and family formation could have major implications for individuals and society. A fertility rate below replacement level could be stressful for society, resulting in population decline, and changes in age structure that could negatively affect the economy.     

Contribution of social and cultural factors to the decline in consanguinity in south India

The data from the National Family Health Survey, 1992-1993, show that the extent of consanguinity is high (34.7 percent) in South India; 26.2 percent of women married close blood relatives, and 8.5 percent of women married distant blood relatives. A definite downward trend in the proportion of marriages between close blood relatives is observed. Education, age at marriage, religion and caste, and urban-rural childhood residence have significant independent effects on consanguinity. The multinomial logistic regression analysis reveals that in South India the downward trend in the proportion of marriages between close blood relatives is entirely explained by rising age at marriage and women's education over time.     

The one-child family: international patterns and their implications for the People's Republic of China

China's Campaign for 1-child families began in 1979 with the goal of limiting its population to 1.2 billion by the year 2000. The 1982 Census indicates that almost 1/2 the mothers between 20 and 29 had had only 1 child. The campaign has aroused considerable interest worldwide because most studies of 1-child families have been based on small samples, often in the US. This study compares the general rates of 1 child families in China and 60 other countries. Data were gathered from national censuses, UN demographic yearbooks, and some World Fertility Surveys and other sources. China's current 1-child family rate (12.5%) is relatively low compared with some developed countries, e.g. Hungary (25.0%), and the US (17.1%). 80% of countries have rates in the 10.0%-19.9% range. For less developed countries (LDCs), rates increase rapidly to age 20-24, declining slowly until age 40. Chinese rates are slightly less at most ages than the average LDC. In more developed countries, the decline begins after age group 25-29. The difference is likely to be due to the later age of marriage and longer birth intervals of women in the developed countries. The % of completed single child families (indicated by rates for women in their later reproductive years) for China are quite low compared to the other developing and developed countries. Despite publicity surrounding the China campaign, China has a considerable distance to go to approach developed nations such as Hungary and Romania.     

Dynamics of Postmarital Residence among the Hadza

When we have asked Hadza whether married couples should live with the family of the wife (uxorilocally) or the family of the husband (virilocally), we are often told that young couples should spend the first years of a marriage living with the wife's family, and then later, after a few children have been born, the couple has more freedom--they can continue to reside with the wife's kin, or else they could join the husband's kin, or perhaps live in a camp where there are no close kin. In this paper, we address why shifts in kin coresidence patterns may arise in the later years of a marriage, after the birth of children. To do so, we model the inclusive fitness costs that wives might experience from leaving their own kin and joining their husband's kin as a function of the number of children in their nuclear family. Our model suggests that such shifts should become less costly to wives as their families grow. This simple model may help explain some of the dynamics of postmarital residence among the Hadza and offer insight into the dynamics of multilocal residence, the most prevalent form of postmarital residence among foragers.     

Estimates of cousin marriage and mean inbreeding in the United Kingdom from 'birth briefs'

From 626 ascendant genealogies, known as 'birth briefs', deposited by members of the Society of Genealogists in their London library, rates of consanguineous marriage and coefficients of mean inbreeding (a) of offspring were estimated for cohorts of marriages contracted in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The rate of first cousin marriage in the generation estimated to have married during the 1920s was 0.32%, with no marriages between second cousins. The mean inbreeding coefficient for the offspring of these marriages was estimated as 0.0002. In the previous generation 1.12% of the marriages were between first cousins, and the estimate of mean inbreeding was 0.0007. Comparison with data taken from the published literature suggests that the levels of cousin marriage observed are consistent with a secular decline during the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries.     

A model of fertility motivation,desires, and expectations early in women's reproductive careers

Abstract

We propose a general model of the relationships connecting fertility motivations, desires, and expectations in which motivations are antecedent to desires, which in turn are antecedent to expectations. We describe differences in the model as it applies to women early in their reproductive careers, specifically, after marriage but before their first birth and after their first birth but before their second. We test the model with data from 311 just‐married and 318 just‐mothered women, using LISREL to estimate structural equations for both groups. The general model fits the data well. There are three primary differences in the model with respect to the two groups of married women. How soon a woman expects her next child affects how many children she expects only among the just‐married woman. The number of children expected by the woman is the only antecedent to how soon she expects her next child among the just‐mothered women. Both positive and negative maternal motivation has effects among the just‐married women, but only negative maternal motivation has effects among the just‐mothered women. These and other differences are discussed in terms of psychological and situational developments occurring early in women's reproductive careers.     

Application of a marriage model in rural Bangladesh

The standard marriage model is evaluated with respect to its applicability in Bangladesh, so that reliable and consistent estimates of mean marriage age for females in Bangladesh can be made. The standard marriage model proposes that a person enters the marriage market and waits until marriage occurs. The distribution of age at entry into the marriage market is generally normal. The delays until marriage occurs are modelled as negative exponential distributions. In a population where marriage is universal, the standard schedule of 1st marriage frequencies developed by Coale and McNeil is a close approximation to the convolution of a normal curve and several exponential distributions G(x), the cumulative probability of marriage at age x. Since the standard distribution of age at 1st marriage is closely approximated by the convolution of a normal curve and several negative exponential distributions, the age at entry to the marriage market for females, and whether this is normally distributed, should be examined. 1 cross-sectional study in Bangladesh concludes that onset of menarche determines entry into the marriage market. The proportion of ever married females by single year of age which is available from cross sectional demographic surveys can be fitted to the Coale-McNeil model. Marriages in the rural areas of Bangladesh seem to follow the pattern of entering the marriage market at puberty, then waiting until actual marriage takes place. This model of entries and delays can also be fitted to cross-sectional data from rural Bangladesh. The use of the Coale-McNeil marriage model in rural Bangladesh is appropriate for estimating the mean age of marriage.     

Body mass index of married Bangladeshi women: trends and association with socio-demographic factors

Body mass index (BMI) is a good indicator of nutritional status in a population. In underdeveloped countries like Bangladesh, this indicator provides a method that can assist intervention to help eradicate many preventable diseases. This study aimed to report on changes in the BMI of married Bangladeshi women who were born in the past three decades and its association with socio-demographic factors. Data for 10,115 married and currently non-pregnant Bangladeshi women were extracted from the 2007 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS). The age range of the sample was 15-49 years. The mean BMI was 20.85 ± 3.66 kg/m(2), and a decreasing tendency in BMI was found among birth year cohorts from 1972 to 1992. It was found that the proportion of underweight females has been increasing in those born during the last 20 years of the study period (1972 to 1992). Body mass index increased with increasing age, education level of the woman and her husband, wealth index, age at first marriage and age at first delivery, and decreased with increasing number of ever-born children. Lower BMI was especially pronounced among women who were living in rural areas, non-Muslims, employed women, women not living with their husbands (separated) or those who had delivered at home or non-Caesarean delivery.     

Age at first marriage in Nepal: differentials and determinants

The aim of this paper is to investigate the differentials and determinants of female age at first marriage in rural Nepal. The life table technique was employed to calculate median age at marriage. The proportional hazard model was used to study the effect of various socioeconomic variables, and to identify the magnitude and significance of their effects on the timing of first marriage. The data were taken from a sample survey of Palpa and Rupandehi districts in rural Nepal. Both married and unmarried females of marriageable age were included in the survey. Median age at marriage was about 17 years for data from only married females, whereas it was about 18 years for data from married as well as unmarried females of marriageable age. Median age at marriage was about 16 years for uneducated females and 19 years for females educated up to intermediate or higher level. The analysis underestimates the median age at marriage for married females, probably due to right censoring. The risk of getting married early decreased gradually with increasing year-of-birth cohort. The risk of early marriage was higher among females of high socioeconomic status compared with those of low socioeconomic status. Females engaged in service married earlier than those engaged in household work. High socioeconomic status families are motivated, for religious and prestige reasons, to get their daughters married at an early age, preferably before menarche. Thus, education, occupation and age at menarche are the most powerful factors in deciding the timing of first marriage in Nepal.     

Obesity reduction within a generation: the dual roles of prevention and treatment

In 2010, the White House Task Force on Childhood Obesity provided benchmark goals for reducing childhood obesity. We evaluated the balance of prevention and treatment required for achieving Task Force goals in benchmark years 2015, 2020, and 2030. We created a simulation of US birth cohorts (2-19 years) born 2008-2030. For each year, we assumed "old" birth cohorts (part of previous benchmark obesity estimates) would benefit from obesity treatment strategies, and "new" birth cohorts would benefit from obesity prevention strategies. We assessed obesity prevalence that must be achieved through prevention strategies, under varying assumptions of treatment effectiveness. When we assumed a 1% absolute reduction in prevalence through treatment, we found that prevention strategies would need to achieve an obesity prevalence of 12% by 2015, 8% by 2020, and 0.3% by 2030. Because of higher obesity prevalence among minority children, prevention strategies would need to achieve a negative prevalence by 2030, which is implausible. Under more generous assumptions of treatment effectiveness, estimates became positive but remained low. Task Force goals are more difficult to achieve with each benchmark year. Policies must focus on obesity treatment interventions, particularly targeted to racial/ethnic minority children, to make progress in stemming the epidemic.     

Main results of recent Hungarian family planning studies.

The demographic situation in Hungary is analyzed by presenting results of 5 different surveys on family planning carried out between 1958-1974. During those 16 years the practice of planning the number of children desired grew. In 1958 only 63 out of 100 women planned the number of children at marriage, and in 1974 98% gave an affirmative reply. The number of children planned by women declined from 2.25 in 1958 to 2.05 in 1966, and then increased to 2.19 in 1974. More and more childless married women want to give birth to a child. In early studies, 66-67% desired a child, and in 1974 83% desired a child. The idea of a family size with 2 children has become the rule in Hungary. In 1958 only 76% of the women used birth control; by 1966 the percentage was 84. 37% in 1958, 44% in 1966, and 26% in 1969 used both contraception and induced abortion. By 1972, 42% of the women interviewed had had an abortion. The use of contraception has increased considerably from 58% in 1958 to 75% in 1974. In 1974, 36% of the women using contraception were taking oral pills and only 7% were using the IUD.     

Is Maternal Marriage Beneficial for Low-Income Adolescents?

The present study investigated the association of mothers' marriage and changes in young adolescents' cognitive and socioemotional development and changes in family processes. Analyses employed longitudinal data from the Three-City Study to track maternal partnerships for 860 low-income adolescents (10–14 years-old in Wave 1) across a 16 month period. No short-term benefits or risks emerged for youth when mothers entered marriage, with few changes in family or maternal functioning linked with marriage formation as well. In contrast, adolescents in stably married families experienced improved academic, behavioral, and psychological well-being compared to youth in stable cohabiting or single-parent families. Stable marriage was similarly linked to improvements across multiple domains of home and mothers' functioning. These patterns were not moderated by the male partner's identity (biological father or stepfather). Results support the benefits of stable marriage on youth development, but suggest that policies supporting movements into new marriages may not result in improved adolescent or family functioning, at least in the short term.