Evaluation of the Ethiopian Millennium Rural Initiative: Impact on Mortality and Cost-Effectiveness

Main Objective

Few studies have examined the long-term, impact of large-scale interventions to strengthen primary care services for women and children in rural, low-income settings. We evaluated the impact of the Ethiopian Millennium Rural Initiative (EMRI), an 18-month systems-based intervention to improve the performance of 30 primary health care units in rural areas of Ethiopia.

Methods

We assessed the impact of EMRI on maternal and child survival using The Lives Saved Tool (LiST), Demography (DemProj) and AIDS Impact Model (AIM) tools in Spectrum software, inputting monthly data on 6 indicators 1) antenatal coverage (ANC), 2) skilled birth attendance coverage (SBA), 3) post-natal coverage (PNC), 4) HIV testing during ANC, 5) measles vaccination coverage, and 6) pentavalent 3 vaccination coverages. We calculated a cost-benefit ratio of the EMRI program including lives saved during implementation and lives saved during implementation and 5 year follow-up.

Results

A total of 134 lives (all children) were estimated to have been saved due to the EMRI interventions during the 18-month intervention in 30 health centers and their catchment areas, with an estimated additional 852 lives (820 children and 2 adults) saved during the 5-year post-EMRI period. For the 18-month intervention period, EMRI cost $37,313 per life saved ($42,366 per life if evaluation costs are included). Calculated over the 18-month intervention plus 5 years post-intervention, EMRI cost $5,875 per life saved ($6,671 per life if evaluation costs are included). The cost effectiveness of EMRI improves substantially if the performance achieved during the 18 months of the EMRI intervention is sustained for 5 years. Scaling up EMRI to operate for 5 years across the 4 major regions of Ethiopia could save as many as 34,908 lives.

Significance

A systems-based approach to improving primary care in low-income settings can have transformational impact on lives saved and be cost-effective.     

Stagnant Neonatal Mortality and Persistent Health Inequality in Middle-Income Countries: A Case Study of the Philippines

Background

The probability of survival through childhood continues to be unequal in middle-income countries. This study uses data from the Philippines to assess trends in the prevalence and distribution of child mortality and to evaluate the country’s socioeconomic-related child health inequality.

Methodology

Using data from four Demographic and Health Surveys we estimated levels and trends of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality from 1990 to 2007. Mortality estimates at national and subnational levels were produced using both direct and indirect methods. Concentration indices were computed to measure child health inequality by wealth status. Multivariate regression analyses were used to assess the contribution of interventions and socioeconomic factors to wealth-related inequality.

Findings

Despite substantial reductions in national under-five and infant mortality rates in the early 1990s, the rates of declines have slowed in recent years and neonatal mortality rates remain stubbornly high. Substantial variations across urban-rural, regional, and wealth equity-markers are evident, and suggest that the gaps between the best and worst performing sub-populations will either be maintained or widen in the future. Of the variables tested, recent wealth-related inequalities are found to be strongly associated with social factors (e.g. maternal education), regional location, and access to health services, such as facility-based delivery.

Conclusion

The Philippines has achieved substantial progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4, but this success masks substantial inequalities and stagnating neonatal mortality trends. This analysis supports a focus on health interventions of high quality – that is, not just facility-based delivery, but delivery by trained staff at well-functioning facilities and supported by a strong referral system – to re-start the long term decline in neonatal mortality and to reduce persistent within-country inequalities in child health.     

Effect of investment in malaria control on child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2002-2008

Background

Around 8.8 million children under-five die each year, mostly due to infectious diseases, including malaria that accounts for 16% of deaths in Africa, but the impact of international financing of malaria control on under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa has not been examined.

Methods and Findings

We combined multiple data sources and used panel data regression analysis to study the relationship among investment, service delivery/intervention coverage, and impact on child health by observing changes in 34 sub-Saharan African countries over 2002–2008. We used Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of lives saved from coverage increase of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs)/indoor residual spraying (IRS). As an indicator of outcome, we also used under-five mortality rate. Global Fund investments comprised more than 70% of the Official Development Assistance (ODA) for malaria control in 34 countries. Each $1 million ODA for malaria enabled distribution of 50,478 ITNs [95%CI: 37,774–63,182] in the disbursement year. 1,000 additional ITNs distributed saved 0.625 lives [95%CI: 0.369–0.881]. Cumulatively Global Fund investments that increased ITN/IRS coverage in 2002–2008 prevented an estimated 240,000 deaths. Countries with higher malaria burden received less ODA disbursement per person-at-risk compared to lower-burden countries ($3.90 vs. $7.05). Increased ITN/IRS coverage in high-burden countries led to 3,575 lives saved per 1 million children, as compared with 914 lives in lower-burden countries. Impact of ITN/IRS coverage on under-five mortality was significant among major child health interventions such as immunisation showing that 10% increase in households with ITN/IRS would reduce 1.5 [95%CI: 0.3–2.8] child deaths per 1000 live births.

Conclusions

Along with other key child survival interventions, increased ITNs/IRS coverage has significantly contributed to child mortality reduction since 2002. ITN/IRS scale-up can be more efficiently prioritized to countries where malaria is a major cause of child deaths to save greater number of lives with available resources.     

Estimating pneumonia deaths of post-neonatal children in countries of low or no death certification in 2008

Background

Pneumonia is the leading cause of child deaths globally. The aims of this study were to: a) estimate the number and global distribution of pneumonia deaths for children 1–59 months for 2008 for countries with low (<85%) or no coverage of death certification using single-cause regression models and b) compare these country estimates with recently published ones based on multi-cause regression models.

Methods and Findings

For 35 low child-mortality countries with <85% coverage of death certification, a regression model based on vital registration data of low child-mortality and >85% coverage of death certification countries was used. For 87 high child-mortality countries pneumonia death estimates were obtained by applying a regression model developed from published and unpublished verbal autopsy data from high child-mortality settings. The total number of 1–59 months pneumonia deaths for the year 2008 for these 122 countries was estimated to be 1.18 M (95% CI 0.77 M–1.80 M), which represented 23.27% (95% CI 17.15%–32.75%) of all 1–59 month child deaths. The country level estimation correlation coefficient between these two methods was 0.40.

Interpretation

Although the overall number of post-neonatal pneumonia deaths was similar irrespective to the method of estimation used, the country estimate correlation coefficient was low, and therefore country-specific estimates should be interpreted with caution. Pneumonia remains the leading cause of child deaths and is greatest in regions of poverty and high child-mortality. Despite the concerns about gender inequity linked with childhood mortality we could not estimate sex-specific pneumonia mortality rates due to the inadequate data. Life-saving interventions effective in preventing and treating pneumonia mortality exist but few children in high pneumonia disease burden regions are able to access them. To achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 target to reduce child deaths by two-thirds in year 2015 will require the scale-up of access to these effective pneumonia interventions.     

Estimating the under-five mortality rate using a bayesian hierarchical time series model

Background

Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for a reduction in the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, which corresponds to an annual rate of decline of 4.4%. The United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation estimates under-five mortality in every country to measure progress. For the majority of countries, the estimates within a country are based on the assumption of a piece-wise constant rate of decline.

Methods and Findings

This paper proposes an alternative method to estimate under-five mortality, such that the underlying rate of change is allowed to vary smoothly over time using a time series model. Information about the average rate of decline and changes therein is exchanged between countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Cross-validation exercises suggest that the proposed model provides credible bounds for the under-five mortality rate that are reasonably well calibrated during the observation period. The alternative estimates suggest smoother trends in under-five mortality and give new insights into changes in the rate of decline within countries.

Conclusions

The proposed model offers an alternative modeling approach for obtaining estimates of under-five mortality which removes the restriction of a piece-wise linear rate of decline and introduces hierarchy to exchange information between countries. The newly proposed estimates of the rate of decline in under-5 mortality and the uncertainty assessments would help to monitor progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4.     

Social Factors Influencing Child Health in Ghana

Objectives

Social factors have profound effects on health. Children are especially vulnerable to social influences, particularly in their early years. Adverse social exposures in childhood can lead to chronic disorders later in life. Here, we sought to identify and evaluate the impact of social factors on child health in Ghana. As Ghana is unlikely to achieve the Millennium Development Goals’ target of reducing child mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, we deemed it necessary to identify social determinants that might have contributed to the non-realisation of this goal.

Methods

ScienceDirect, PubMed, MEDLINE via EBSCO and Google Scholar were searched for published articles reporting on the influence of social factors on child health in Ghana. After screening the 98 articles identified, 34 of them that met our inclusion criteria were selected for qualitative review.

Results

Major social factors influencing child health in the country include maternal education, rural-urban disparities (place of residence), family income (wealth/poverty) and high dependency (multiparousity). These factors are associated with child mortality, nutritional status of children, completion of immunisation programmes, health-seeking behaviour and hygiene practices.

Conclusions

Several social factors influence child health outcomes in Ghana. Developing more effective responses to these social determinants would require sustainable efforts from all stakeholders including the Government, healthcare providers and families. We recommend the development of interventions that would support families through direct social support initiatives aimed at alleviating poverty and inequality, and indirect approaches targeted at eliminating the dependence of poor health outcomes on social factors. Importantly, the expansion of quality free education interventions to improve would-be-mother’s health knowledge is emphasised.     

Understanding Inequalities in Child Health in Ethiopia: Health Achievements Are Improving in the Period 2000–2011

Objective

In Ethiopia, coverage of key health services is low, and community based services have been implemented to improve access to key services. This study aims to describe and assess the level and the distribution of health outcomes and coverage for key services in Ethiopia, and their association with socioeconomic and geographic determinants.

Methods

Data were obtained from the 2000, 2005 and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys. As indicators of access to health care, the following variables were included: Under-five and neonatal deaths, skilled birth attendance, coverage of vaccinations, oral rehydration therapy for diarrhoea, and antibiotics for suspected pneumonia. For each of the indicators in 2011, inequality was described by estimating their concentration index and a geographic Gini index. For further assessment of the inequalities, the concentration indices were decomposed. An index of health achievement, integrating mean coverage and the distribution of coverage, was estimated. Changes from 2000 to 2011 in coverage, inequality and health achievement were assessed.

Results

Significant pro-rich inequalities were found for all indicators except treatment for suspected pneumonia in 2011. The geographic Gini index showed significant regional inequality for most indicators. The decomposition of the 2011 concentration indices revealed that the factor contributing the most to the observed inequalities was different levels of wealth. The mean of all indicators improved from 2000 to 2011, and the health achievement index improved for most indicators. The socioeconomic inequalities seem to increase from 2000 to 2011 for under-five and neonatal deaths, whereas they are stable or decreasing for the other indicators.

Conclusion

There is an unequal socioeconomic and geographic distribution of health and access to key services in Ethiopia. Although the health achievement indices improved for most indicators from 2000 to 2011, socioeconomic determinants need to be addressed in order to achieve better and more fairly distributed health.     

Effect of geographical access to health facilities on child mortality in rural Ethiopia: a community based cross sectional study

Background

There have been few studies that have examined associations between access to health care and child health outcomes in remote populations most in need of health services. This study assessed the effect of travel time and distance to health facilities on mortality in children under five years in a remote area of rural north-western Ethiopia.

Methods and Findings

This study involved a randomly selected cross sectional survey of 2,058 households. Data were collected during home visits to all resident women of reproductive age (15–49 years). A geographic information system (GIS) was used to map all households and the only health centre in the district. The analysis was restricted to 2,206 rural children who were under the age of five years during the five years before the survey. Data were analysed using random effects Poisson regression. 90.4% (1,996/2,206) of children lived more than 1.5 hours walk from the health centre. Children who lived ≥1.5 hrs from the health centre had a two to three fold greater risk of death than children who lived <1.5 hours from the health centre (children with travel time 1.5–<2.5 hrs adjusted relative risk [adjRR] 2.3[0.95–5.6], travel time 2.5–<3.5 hrs adjRR 3.1[1.3–7.4] and travel time 3.5–<6.5 hrs adjRR 2.5[1.1–6.2]).

Conclusion

Distance to a health centre had a marked influence on under five mortality in a poor, rural, remote area of Ethiopia. This study provides important information for policy makers on the likely impact of new health centres and their most effective location in remote areas.     

Using Health Extension Workers for Monitoring Child Mortality in Real-Time: Validation against Household Survey Data in Rural Ethiopia

Background

Ethiopia has scaled up its community-based programs over the past decade by training and deploying health extension workers (HEWs) in rural communities throughout the country. Consequently, child mortality has declined substantially, placing Ethiopia among the few countries that have achieved the United Nations’ fourth Millennium Development Goal. As Ethiopia continues its efforts, results must be assessed regularly to provide timely feedback for improvement and to generate further support for programs. More specifically the expansion of HEWs at the community level provides a unique opportunity to build a system for real-time monitoring of births and deaths, linked to a civil registration and vital statistics system that Ethiopia is also developing. We tested the accuracy and completeness of births and deaths reported by trained HEWs for monitoring child mortality over 15 -month periods.

Methods and Findings

HEWs were trained in 93 randomly selected rural kebeles in Jimma and West Hararghe zones of the Oromia region to report births and deaths over a 15-month period from January, 2012 to March, 2013. Completeness of number of births and deaths, age distribution of deaths, and accuracy of resulting under-five, infant, and neonatal mortality rates were assessed against data from a large household survey with full birth history from women aged 15–49. Although, in general HEWs, were able to accurately report events that they identified, the completeness of number of births and deaths reported over twelve-month periods was very low and variable across the two zones. Compared to household survey estimates, HEWs reported only about 30% of births and 21% of under-five deaths occurring in their communities over a twelve-month period. The under-five mortality rate was under-estimated by around 30%, infant mortality rate by 23% and neonatal mortality by 17%. HEWs reported disproportionately higher number of deaths among the very young infants than among the older children.

Conclusion

Birth and death data reported by HEWs are not complete enough to support the monitoring of changes in childhood mortality. HEWs can significantly contribute to the success of a CRVS in Ethiopia, but cannot be relied upon as the sole source for identification of vital events. Further studies are needed to understand how to increase the level of completeness.     

Quantifying child mortality reductions related to measles vaccination

Background

This study characterizes the historical relationship between coverage of measles containing vaccines (MCV) and mortality in children under 5 years, with a view toward ongoing global efforts to reduce child mortality.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using country-level, longitudinal panel data, from 44 countries over the period 1960–2005, we analyzed the relationship between MCV coverage and measles mortality with (1) logistic regressions for no measles deaths in a country-year, and (2) linear regressions for the logarithm of the measles death rate. All regressions allowed a flexible, non-linear relationship between coverage and mortality. Covariates included birth rate, death rates from other causes, percent living in urban areas, population density, per-capita GDP, use of the two-dose MCV, year, and mortality coding system. Regressions used lagged covariates, country fixed effects, and robust standard errors clustered by country. The likelihood of no measles deaths increased nonlinearly with higher MCV coverage (ORs: 13.8 [1.6–122.7] for 80–89% to 40.7 [3.2–517.6] for ≥95%), compared to pre-vaccination risk levels. Measles death rates declined nonlinearly with higher MCV coverage, with benefits accruing more slowly above 90% coverage. Compared to no coverage, predicted average reductions in death rates were −79% at 70% coverage, −93% at 90%, and −95% at 95%.

Conclusions/Significance

40 years of experience with MCV vaccination suggests that extremely high levels of vaccination coverage are needed to produce sharp reductions in measles deaths. Achieving sustainable benefits likely requires a combination of extended vaccine programs and supplementary vaccine efforts.     

The Potential of Medical Abortion to Reduce Maternal Mortality in Africa: What Benefits for Tanzania and Ethiopia?

Background

Unsafe abortion is estimated to account for 13% of maternal mortality globally. Medical abortion is a safe alternative.

Methods

By estimating mortality risks for unsafe and medical abortion and childbirth for Tanzania and Ethiopia, we modelled changes in maternal mortality that are achievable if unsafe abortion were replaced by medical abortion. We selected Ethiopia and Tanzania because of their high maternal mortality ratios (MMRatios) and contrasting situations regarding health care provision and abortion legislation. We focused on misoprostol-only regimens due to the drug''s low cost and accessibility. We included the impact of medical abortion on women who would otherwise choose unsafe abortion and on women with unwanted/mistimed pregnancies who would otherwise carry to term.

Results

Thousands of lives could be saved each year in each country by implementing medical abortion using misoprostol (2122 in Tanzania and 2551 in Ethiopia assuming coverage equals family planning services levels: 56% for Tanzania, 31% for Ethiopia). Changes in MMRatios would be less pronounced because the intervention would also affect national birth rates.

Conclusions

This is the first analysis of impact of medical abortion provision which takes into account additional potential users other than those currently using unsafe abortion. Thousands of women''s lives could be saved, but this may not be reflected in as substantial changes in MMRatios because of medical abortion''s demographic impact. Therefore policy makers must be aware of the inability of some traditional measures of maternal mortality to detect the real benefits offered by such an intervention.     

Correlates of Complete Childhood Vaccination in East African Countries

Background

Despite the benefits of childhood vaccinations, vaccination rates in low-income countries (LICs) vary widely. Increasing coverage of vaccines to 90% in the poorest countries over the next 10 years has been estimated to prevent 426 million cases of illness and avert nearly 6.4 million childhood deaths worldwide. Consequently, we sought to provide a comprehensive examination of contemporary vaccination patterns in East Africa and to identify common and country-specific barriers to complete childhood vaccination.

Methods

Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, we looked at the prevalence of complete vaccination for polio, measles, Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) and DTwPHibHep (DTP) as recommended by the WHO among children ages 12 to 23 months. We conducted multivariable logistic regression within each country to estimate associations between complete vaccination status and health care access and sociodemographic variables using backwards stepwise regression.

Results

Vaccination varied significantly by country. In all countries, the majority of children received at least one dose of a WHO recommended vaccine; however, in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda less than 50% of children received a complete schedule of recommended vaccines. Being delivered in a public or private institution compared with being delivered at home was associated with increased odds of complete vaccination status. Sociodemographic covariates were not consistently associated with complete vaccination status across countries.

Conclusions

Although no consistent set of predictors accounted for complete vaccination status, we observed differences based on region and the location of delivery. These differences point to the need to examine the historical, political, and economic context of each country in order to maximize vaccination coverage. Vaccination against these childhood diseases is a critical step towards reaching the Millennium Development Goal of reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015 and thus should be a global priority.     

Resource Needs for Adolescent Friendly Health Services: Estimates for 74 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Background

In order to achieve Millennium Development Goals 4, 5 and 6, it is essential to address adolescents’ health.

Objective

To estimate the additional resources required to scale up adolescent friendly health service interventions with the objective to reduce mortality and morbidity among individuals aged 10 to 19 years in 74 low- and middle- income countries.

Methods

A costing model was developed to estimate the financial resources needed to scale-up delivery of a set of interventions including contraception, maternity care, management of sexually transmitted infections, HIV testing and counseling, safe abortion services, HIV harm reduction, HIV care and treatment and care of injuries due to intimate partner physical and sexual violence. Financial costs were estimated for each intervention, country and year using a bottom-up ingredients approach, defining costs at different levels of delivery (i.e., community, health centre, and hospital level). Programme activity costs to improve quality of care were also estimated, including activities undertaken at national-, district- and facility level in order to improve adolescents’ use of health services (i.e., to render health services adolescent friendly).

Results

Costs of achieving universal coverage are estimated at an additional US$ 15.41 billion for the period 2011–2015, increasing from US$ 1.86 billion in 2011 to US$ 4,31 billion in 2015. This corresponds to approximately US$ 1.02 per adolescent in 2011, increasing to 4.70 in 2015. On average, for all 74 countries, an annual additional expenditure per capita ranging from of US$ 0.38 in 2011 to US$ 0.82 in 2015, would be required to support the scale-up of key adolescent friendly health services.

Conclusion

The estimated costs show a substantial investment gap and are indicative of the additional investments required to scale up health service delivery to adolescents towards universal coverage by 2015.     

Life expectancy at birth for people with serious mental illness and other major disorders from a secondary mental health care case register in London

Objective

Despite improving healthcare, the gap in mortality between people with serious mental illness (SMI) and general population persists, especially for younger age groups. The electronic database from a large and comprehensive secondary mental healthcare provider in London was utilized to assess the impact of SMI diagnoses on life expectancy at birth.

Method

People who were diagnosed with SMI (schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, bipolar disorder), substance use disorder, and depressive episode/disorder before the end of 2009 and under active review by the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust (SLAM) in southeast London during 2007–09 comprised the sample, retrieved by the SLAM Case Register Interactive Search (CRIS) system. We estimated life expectancy at birth for people with SMI and each diagnosis, from national mortality returns between 2007–09, using a life table method.

Results

A total of 31,719 eligible people, aged 15 years or older, with SMI were analyzed. Among them, 1,370 died during 2007–09. Compared to national figures, all disorders were associated with substantially lower life expectancy: 8.0 to 14.6 life years lost for men and 9.8 to 17.5 life years lost for women. Highest reductions were found for men with schizophrenia (14.6 years lost) and women with schizoaffective disorders (17.5 years lost).

Conclusion

The impact of serious mental illness on life expectancy is marked and generally higher than similarly calculated impacts of well-recognised adverse exposures such as smoking, diabetes and obesity. Strategies to identify and prevent causes of premature death are urgently required.     

Factors Contributing to Maternal and Child Mortality Reductions in 146 Low- and Middle-Income Countries between 1990 and 2010

Introduction

From 1990–2010, worldwide child mortality declined by 43%, and maternal mortality declined by 40%. This paper compares two sources of progress: improvements in societal coverage of health determinants versus improvements in the impact of health determinants as a result of technical change.

Methods

This paper decomposes the progress made by 146 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in lowering childhood and maternal mortality into one component due to better health determinants like literacy, income, and health coverage and a second component due to changes in the impact of these health determinants. Health determinants were selected from eight distinct health-impacting sectors. Health determinants were selected from eight distinct health-impacting sectors. Regression models are used to estimate impact size in 1990 and again in 2010. Changes in the levels of health determinants were measured using secondary data.

Findings

The model shows that respectively 100% and 89% of the reductions in maternal and child mortality since 1990 were due to improvements in nationwide coverage of health determinants. The relative share of overall improvement attributable to any single determinant varies by country and by model specification. However, in aggregate, approximately 50% of the mortality reductions were due to improvements in the health sector, and the other 50% of the mortality reductions were due to gains outside the health sector.

Conclusions

Overall, countries improved maternal and child health (MCH) from 1990 to 2010 mainly through improvements in the societal coverage of a broad array of health system, social, economic and environmental determinants of child health. These findings vindicate efforts by the global community to obtain such improvements, and align with the post-2015 development agenda that builds on the lessons from the MDGs and highlights the importance of promoting health and sustainable development in a more integrated manner across sectors.     

Maternal Mortality in Henan Province,China: Changes between 1996 and 2009

Background

Maternal deaths occur mostly in developing countries and the majority of them are preventable. This study analyzes changes in maternal mortality and related causes in Henan Province, China, between 1996 and 2009, in an attempt to provide a reliable basis for introducing effective interventions to reduce the maternal mortality ratio (MMR), part of the fifth Millennium Development Goal.

Methods and Findings

This population-based maternal mortality survey in Henan Province was carried out from 1996 to 2009. Basic information was obtained from the health care network for women and children and the vital statistics system, from specially trained monitoring personnel in 25 selected monitoring sites and by household survey in each case of maternal death. This data was subsequently reported to the Henan Provincial Maternal and Child Healthcare Hospital. The total MMR in Henan Province declined by 78.4%, from 80.1 per 100 000 live births in 1996 to 17.3 per 100 000 live births in 2009. The decline was more pronounced in rural than in urban areas. The most common causes of maternal death during this period were obstetric hemorrhage (43.8%), pregnancy-induced hypertension (15.8%), amniotic fluid embolism (13.9%) and heart disease (8.0%). The MMR was higher in rural areas with lower income, less education and poorer health care.

Conclusion

There was a remarkable decrease in the MMR in Henan Province between 1996 and 2009 mainly in the rural areas and MMR due to direct obstetric causes such as obstetric hemorrhage. This study indicates that improving the health care network for women, training of obstetric staff at basic-level units, promoting maternal education, and increasing household income are important interventional strategies to reduce the MMR further.     

Entrenched Geographical and Socioeconomic Disparities in Child Mortality: Trends in Absolute and Relative Inequalities in Cambodia

Background

Cambodia has made considerable improvements in mortality rates for children under the age of five and neonates. These improvements may, however, mask considerable disparities between subnational populations. In this paper, we examine the extent of the country''s child mortality inequalities.

Methods

Mortality rates for children under-five and neonates were directly estimated using the 2000, 2005 and 2010 waves of the Cambodian Demographic Health Survey. Disparities were measured on both absolute and relative scales using rate differences and ratios, and where applicable, slope and relative indices of inequality by levels of rural/urban location, regions and household wealth.

Findings

Since 2000, considerable reductions in under-five and to a lesser extent in neonatal mortality rates have been observed. This mortality decline has, however, been accompanied by an increase in relative inequality in both rates of child mortality for geography-related stratifying markers. For absolute inequality amongst regions, most trends are increasing, particularly for neonatal mortality, but are not statistically significant. The only exception to this general pattern is the statistically significant positive trend in absolute inequality for under-five mortality in the Coastal region. For wealth, some evidence for increases in both relative and absolute inequality for neonates is observed.

Conclusion

Despite considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, entrenched and increased geographical and wealth-based inequality in mortality, at least on a relative scale, remain. As expected, national progress seems to be associated with the period of political and macroeconomic stability that started in the early 2000s. However, issues of quality of care and potential non-inclusive economic growth might explain remaining disparities, particularly across wealth and geography markers. A focus on further addressing key supply and demand side barriers to accessing maternal and child health care and on the social determinants of health will be essential in narrowing inequalities.     

Estimation of HIV-Testing Rates to Maximize Early Diagnosis-Derived Benefits at the Individual and Population Level

Background

In HIV infection, initiation of treatment is associated with improved clinical outcom and reduced rate of sexual transmission. However, difficulty in detecting infection in early stages impairs those benefits. We determined the minimum testing rate that maximizes benefits derived from early diagnosis.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model of HIV infection, diagnosis and treatment that allows studying both diagnosed and undiagnosed populations, as well as determining the impact of modifying time to diagnosis and testing rates. The model’s external consistency was assessed by estimating time to AIDS and death in absence of treatment as well as by estimating age-dependent mortality rates during treatment, and comparing them with data previously reported from CASCADE and DHCS cohorts.

Results

In our model, life expectancy of patients diagnosed before 8 years post infection is the same as HIV-negative population. After this time point, age at death is significantly dependent on diagnosis delay but initiation of treatment increases life expectancy to similar levels as HIV-negative population. Early mortality during HAART is dependent on treatment CD4 threshold until 6 years post infection and becomes dependent on diagnosis delay after 6 years post infection. By modifying testing rates, we estimate that an annual testing rate of 20% leads to diagnosis of 90% of infected individuals within the first 8.2 years of infection and that current testing rate in middle-high income settings stands close to 10%. In addition, many differences between low-income and middle-high incomes can be predicted by solely modifying the diagnosis delay.

Conclusions

To increase testing rate of undiagnosed HIV population by two-fold in middle-high income settings will minimize early mortality during initiation of treatment and global mortality rate as well as maximize life expectancy. Our results highlight the impact of achieving early diagnosis and the importance of strongly work on improving HIV testing rates.     

Life Expectancy and Death by Diseases of the Circulatory System in Patients with Bipolar Disorder or Schizophrenia in the Nordic Countries

Objective

Excess mortality from diseases and medical conditions (natural death) in persons with psychiatric disorders has been extensively reported. Even in the Nordic countries with well-developed welfare systems, register based studies find evidence of an excess mortality. In recent years, cardiac mortality and death by diseases of the circulatory system has seen a decline in all the Nordic countries, but a recent paper indicates that women and men in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, who had been hospitalised for a psychotic disorder, had a two to three-fold increased risk of dying from a cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to compare the mortality by diseases of the circulatory system among patients with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia in the three Nordic countries Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. Furthermore, the aim was to examine and compare life expectancy among these patients. Cause specific Standardized Mortality Rates (SMRs) were calculated for each specific subgroup of mortality. Life expectancy was calculated using Wiesler’s method.

Results

The SMR for bipolar disorder for diseases of the circulatory system was approximately 2 in all countries and both sexes. SMR was slightly higher for people with schizophrenia for both genders and in all countries, except for men in Denmark. Overall life expectancy was much lower among persons with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia, with life expectancy being from 11 to 20 years shorter.

Conclusion

Our data show that persons in the Nordic countries with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder have a substantially reduced life expectancy. An evaluation of the reasons for these increased mortality rates should be prioritized when planning healthcare in the coming years.