Adult Mortality Attributable to Preventable Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries in Japan: A Comparative Risk Assessment

Background

The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan.

Methods and Findings

We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000–154,000) and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000–119,000), respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000–58,000), high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000–43,000), high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000–39,000), and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000–35,000). In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3–1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2–1.7) if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the two major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan. There is a large potential population health gain if multiple risk factors are jointly controlled. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Molecular malaria epidemiology: mapping and burden estimates for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2007

Background

Epidemiologic data on malaria are scant in many high-burden countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which suffers the second-highest global burden of malaria. Malaria control efforts in regions with challenging infrastructure require reproducible and efficient surveillance. We employed new high-throughput molecular testing to characterize the state of malaria control in the DRC and estimate childhood mortality attributable to excess malaria transmission.

Methods and Findings

The Demographic and Health Survey was a cross-sectional, population-based cluster household survey of adults aged 15–59 years in 2007 employing structured questionnaires and dried blood spot collection. Parasitemia was detected by real-time PCR, and survey responses measured adoption of malaria control measures and under-5 health indices. The response rate was 99% at the household level, and 8,886 households were surveyed in 300 clusters; from 8,838 respondents molecular results were available. The overall prevalence of parasitemia was 33.5% (95% confidence interval [C.I.] 32–34.9); P. falciparum was the most prevalent species, either as monoinfection (90.4%; 95% C.I. 88.8–92.1) or combined with P. malariae (4.9%; 95% C.I. 3.7–5.9) or P. ovale (0.6%; 95% C.I. 0.1–0.9). Only 7.7% (95% CI 6.8–8.6) of households with children under 5 owned an insecticide-treated bednet (ITN), and only 6.8% (95% CI 6.1–7.5) of under-fives slept under an ITN the preceding night. The overall under-5 mortality rate was 147 deaths per 1,000 live births (95% C.I. 141–153) and between clusters was associated with increased P. falciparum prevalence; based on the population attributable fraction, 26,488 yearly under-5 deaths were attributable to excess malaria transmission.

Conclusions

Adult P. falciparum prevalence is substantial in the DRC and is associated with under-5 mortality. Molecular testing offers a new, generalizable, and efficient approach to characterizing malaria endemicity in underserved countries.     

The population impact of a large school-based influenza vaccination campaign

Background

The optimal vaccination strategy to mitigate the impact of influenza epidemics is unclear. In 2005, a countywide school-based influenza vaccination campaign was launched in Knox County, Tennessee (population 385,899). Approximately 41% and 48% of eligible county children aged 5–17 years were immunized with live attenuated influenza vaccine before the 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 influenza seasons, respectively. We sought to determine the population impact of this campaign.

Methods

Laboratory-confirmed influenza data defined influenza seasons. We calculated the incidence of medically attended acute respiratory illness attributable to influenza in Knox and Knox-surrounding counties (concurrent controls) during consecutive seasons (5 precampaign and 2 campaign seasons) using negative binomial regression and rate difference methods. Age-stratified analyses compared the incidence of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations attributable to influenza.

Results

During precampaign seasons, estimated ED visit rates attributable to influenza were 12.39 (95% CI: 10.34–14.44) per 1000 Knox children aged 5–17 years and similar in Knox-surrounding counties. During the campaign seasons, annual Knox influenza-associated ED visit rates declined relative to rates in Knox-surrounding counties: rate ratios 0.55 (95% CI: 0.27–0.83) and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.56–0.84) for the first and second campaign seasons, respectively. Overall, there were about 35% or 4.86 per 1000 fewer influenza-associated ED visits among Knox County children aged 5–17 years attributable to the campaign. No significant declines in Knox compared to surrounding counties were detected for influenza associated ED visits in children aged <5 years, all adults combined or selected adult age subgroups, although power for these analyses was limited. Alternate rate-difference analyses yielded consistent results.

Conclusion

Vaccination of approximately 45% of Knox school-aged children with influenza vaccine was associated with a 35% annual reduction (4.86 per 1000) in ED visit rates attributable to influenza. Higher vaccination coverage and/or larger studies would be needed to determine whether similar interventions have indirect benefits in other age groups.     

Mortality and Health Outcomes in HIV-Infected and HIV-Uninfected Mothers at 18-20 Months Postpartum in Zomba District, Malawi

Background

Maternal morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected women is a global concern. This study compared mortality and health outcomes of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected mothers at 18–20 months postpartum within routine prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) services in a rural district in Malawi.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of mother-child dyads at 18–20 months postpartum in Zomba District. Data on socio-demographic characteristics, service uptake, maternal health outcomes and biometric parameters were collected.

Results

173 HIV-infected and 214 HIV-uninfected mothers were included. HIV-specific cohort mortality at 18–20 months postpartum was 42.4 deaths/1000 person-years; no deaths occurred among HIV-uninfected women. Median time to death was 11 months post-partum (range 3–19). Women ranked their health on a comparative qualitative scale; HIV-infected women perceived their health to be poorer than did HIV-uninfected women (RR 2.4; 95% CI 1.6–3.7). Perceived maternal health status was well correlated with an objective measure of functional status (Karnofsky scale; p<0.001). HIV-infected women were more likely to report minor (RR 3.8; 95% CI 2.3–6.4) and major (RR 6.2; 95% CI 2.2–17.7) signs or symptoms of disease. In multivariable analysis, HIV-infected women remained twice as likely to report poorer health [adjusted OR (aOR) 2.3; 95% CI 1.4–3.6], as did women with low BMI (aOR 2.1; 95% CI 1.1–4.0) and scoring lowest on the welfare scale (aOR 2.0; 95% CI 1.1–3.8).

Conclusions

HIV-infected women show increased mortality and morbidity at 18–20 months postpartum. In our rural Malawian operational setting, where there is documented under-application of ART and poor adherence to PMTCT services, these results support attention to optimizing maternal participation in PMTCT programs.     

Percentage of patients with preventable adverse drug reactions and preventability of adverse drug reactions--a meta-analysis

Background

Numerous observational studies suggest that preventable adverse drug reactions are a significant burden in healthcare, but no meta-analysis using a standardised definition for adverse drug reactions exists. The aim of the study was to estimate the percentage of patients with preventable adverse drug reactions and the preventability of adverse drug reactions in adult outpatients and inpatients.

Methods

Studies were identified through searching Cochrane, CINAHL, EMBASE, IPA, Medline, PsycINFO and Web of Science in September 2010, and by hand searching the reference lists of identified papers. Original peer-reviewed research articles in English that defined adverse drug reactions according to WHO’s or similar definition and assessed preventability were included. Disease or treatment specific studies were excluded. Meta-analysis on the percentage of patients with preventable adverse drug reactions and the preventability of adverse drug reactions was conducted.

Results

Data were analysed from 16 original studies on outpatients with 48797 emergency visits or hospital admissions and from 8 studies involving 24128 inpatients. No studies in primary care were identified. Among adult outpatients, 2.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2–3.2%) had preventable adverse drug reactions and 52% (95% CI: 42–62%) of adverse drug reactions were preventable. Among inpatients, 1.6% (95% CI: 0.1–51%) had preventable adverse drug reactions and 45% (95% CI: 33–58%) of adverse drug reactions were preventable.

Conclusions

This meta-analysis corroborates that preventable adverse drug reactions are a significant burden to healthcare among adult outpatients. Among both outpatients and inpatients, approximately half of adverse drug reactions are preventable, demonstrating that further evidence on prevention strategies is required. The percentage of patients with preventable adverse drug reactions among inpatients and in primary care is largely unknown and should be investigated in future research.     

The co-morbidity burden of children and young adults with autism spectrum disorders

Objectives

Use electronic health records Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) to assess the comorbidity burden of ASD in children and young adults.

Study Design

A retrospective prevalence study was performed using a distributed query system across three general hospitals and one pediatric hospital. Over 14,000 individuals under age 35 with ASD were characterized by their co-morbidities and conversely, the prevalence of ASD within these comorbidities was measured. The comorbidity prevalence of the younger (Age<18 years) and older (Age 18–34 years) individuals with ASD was compared.

Results

19.44% of ASD patients had epilepsy as compared to 2.19% in the overall hospital population (95% confidence interval for difference in percentages 13.58–14.69%), 2.43% of ASD with schizophrenia vs. 0.24% in the hospital population (95% CI 1.89–2.39%), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) 0.83% vs. 0.54% (95% CI 0.13–0.43%), bowel disorders (without IBD) 11.74% vs. 4.5% (95% CI 5.72–6.68%), CNS/cranial anomalies 12.45% vs. 1.19% (95% CI 9.41–10.38%), diabetes mellitus type I (DM1) 0.79% vs. 0.34% (95% CI 0.3–0.6%), muscular dystrophy 0.47% vs 0.05% (95% CI 0.26–0.49%), sleep disorders 1.12% vs. 0.14% (95% CI 0.79–1.14%). Autoimmune disorders (excluding DM1 and IBD) were not significantly different at 0.67% vs. 0.68% (95% CI −0.14-0.13%). Three of the studied comorbidities increased significantly when comparing ages 0–17 vs 18–34 with p<0.001: Schizophrenia (1.43% vs. 8.76%), diabetes mellitus type I (0.67% vs. 2.08%), IBD (0.68% vs. 1.99%) whereas sleeping disorders, bowel disorders (without IBD) and epilepsy did not change significantly.

Conclusions

The comorbidities of ASD encompass disease states that are significantly overrepresented in ASD with respect to even the patient populations of tertiary health centers. This burden of comorbidities goes well beyond those routinely managed in developmental medicine centers and requires broad multidisciplinary management that payors and providers will have to plan for.     

Trends in computed tomography utilization and association with hospital outcomes in a Chinese emergency department

Background

Excessive use of computed tomography (CT) in emergency departments (EDs) has become a concern due to its expense and the potential risks associated with radiation exposure. Although studies have shown a steady increase in the number of CT scans requested by ED physicians in developed countries like the United States and Australia, few empirical data are available regarding China.

Methods and Findings

We retrospectively analyzed a database of ED visits to a tertiary Chinese hospital to examine trends in CT utilization and their association with ED outcomes between 2005 and 2008. A total of 197,512 ED visits were included in this study. CT utilization increased from 9.8% in 2005 to 13.9% in 2008 (P<.001 for trend). The ED length of stay for visits with CT utilization was 0.6 hour longer than those in which CT was not obtained. CT utilization increased the ED cost by an average $48.2. After adjustment for patients’ demographics, arrival hours and clinical condition, CT utilization during ED visits was significantly associated with high ED cost (Odds Ratio [OR]: 21.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 17.00–27.71), long ED length of stay (OR: 1.22; 95%CI, 1.12–1.34), and more likely to receive emergency operations (OR: 2.31; 95%CI, 1.94–2.76). However, there was no significant correlation between CT use and the possibility to be admitted to inpatient wards (OR: 0.82; 95%CI, 0.65–1.04). With respect to the time-related trends, CT utilization during ED visits in all study years was significantly associated with high ED cost and more likely to receive emergency operations.

Conclusion

CT utilization was associated with higher ED cost, longer ED length of stay and more likely to receive emergency operations, but did not correlate with a significant change in the admission rate.     

Pulmonary function and incident bronchitis and asthma in children: a community-based prospective cohort study

Background

Previous studies revealed that reduction of airway caliber in infancy might increase the risks for wheezing and asthma. However, the evidence for the predictive effects of pulmonary function on respiratory health in children was still inconsistent.

Methods

We conducted a population-based prospective cohort study among children in 14 Taiwanese communities. There were 3,160 children completed pulmonary function tests in 2007 and follow-up questionnaire in 2009. Poisson regression models were performed to estimate the effect of pulmonary function on the development of bronchitis and asthma.

Results

After adjustment for potential confounders, pulmonary function indices consistently showed protective effects on respiratory diseases in children. The incidence rate ratios of bronchitis and asthma were 0.86 (95% CI 0.79–0.95) and 0.91 (95% CI 0.82–0.99) for forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁). Similar adverse effects of maximal mid-expiratory flow (MMEF) were also observed on bronchitis (RR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.67–0.81) and asthma (RR = 0.85, 95% CI 0.77–0.93). We found significant decreasing trends in categorized FEV₁ (p for trend = 0.02) and categories of MMEF (p for trend = 0.01) for incident bronchitis. Significant modification effects of traffic-related air pollution were noted for FEV₁ and MMEF on bronchitis and also for MMEF on asthma.

Conclusions

Children with high pulmonary function would have lower risks on the development of bronchitis and asthma. The protective effect of high pulmonary function would be modified by traffic-related air pollution exposure.     

Effect of investment in malaria control on child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2002-2008

Background

Around 8.8 million children under-five die each year, mostly due to infectious diseases, including malaria that accounts for 16% of deaths in Africa, but the impact of international financing of malaria control on under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa has not been examined.

Methods and Findings

We combined multiple data sources and used panel data regression analysis to study the relationship among investment, service delivery/intervention coverage, and impact on child health by observing changes in 34 sub-Saharan African countries over 2002–2008. We used Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of lives saved from coverage increase of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs)/indoor residual spraying (IRS). As an indicator of outcome, we also used under-five mortality rate. Global Fund investments comprised more than 70% of the Official Development Assistance (ODA) for malaria control in 34 countries. Each $1 million ODA for malaria enabled distribution of 50,478 ITNs [95%CI: 37,774–63,182] in the disbursement year. 1,000 additional ITNs distributed saved 0.625 lives [95%CI: 0.369–0.881]. Cumulatively Global Fund investments that increased ITN/IRS coverage in 2002–2008 prevented an estimated 240,000 deaths. Countries with higher malaria burden received less ODA disbursement per person-at-risk compared to lower-burden countries ($3.90 vs. $7.05). Increased ITN/IRS coverage in high-burden countries led to 3,575 lives saved per 1 million children, as compared with 914 lives in lower-burden countries. Impact of ITN/IRS coverage on under-five mortality was significant among major child health interventions such as immunisation showing that 10% increase in households with ITN/IRS would reduce 1.5 [95%CI: 0.3–2.8] child deaths per 1000 live births.

Conclusions

Along with other key child survival interventions, increased ITNs/IRS coverage has significantly contributed to child mortality reduction since 2002. ITN/IRS scale-up can be more efficiently prioritized to countries where malaria is a major cause of child deaths to save greater number of lives with available resources.     

Patient-reported health status prior to cardiac resynchronisation therapy identifies patients at risk for poor survival and prolonged hospital stays

Background

Patient-reported factors have largely been neglected in search of predictors of response to cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT). The current study aimed to examine the independent value of pre-implantation patient-reported health status in predicting four-year survival and cardiac-related hospitalisation of CRT patients.

Methods

Consecutive patients (N = 139) indicated to receive a first-time CRT-defibrillator at the University Medical Center Utrecht were asked to complete a set of questionnaires prior to implantation. The Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) was used to assess heart failure-specific health status. Data on patients’ demographic, clinical and psychological characteristics at baseline, and on cardiac-related hospitalisations and all-cause deaths during a median follow-up of 3.9 years were obtained from purpose-designed questionnaires and patients’ medical records.

Results

Results of multivariable Cox regression analyses showed that poor patient-reported health status (KCCQ score < 50) prior to implantation was associated with a 2.5-fold increased risk of cardiac hospitalisation or all-cause death, independent of sociodemographic, clinical and psychological risk factors (adjusted hazard ratio 2.46, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.30–4.65). Poor health status was not significantly associated with the absolute number of cardiac-related hospital admissions, but with the total number of days spent in hospital during follow-up (adjusted incidence rate ratio 3.20, 95 % CI 1.88–5.44).

Conclusions

Patient-reported health status assessed prior to CRT identifies patients at risk for poor survival and prolonged hospital stays, independent of traditional risk factors. These results emphasise the importance of incorporating health status measures in cardiovascular research and patient management. Heart failure patients reporting poor health status should be identified and offered appropriate additional treatment programs.     

From Where Are Tuberculosis Patients Accessing Treatment in India? Results from a Cross-Sectional Community Based Survey of 30 Districts

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) notification in India by the Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP) provides information on TB patients registered for treatment from the programme. There is limited information about the proportion of patients treated for TB outside RNTCP and where these patients access their treatment.

Objectives

To estimate the proportion of patients accessing TB treatment outside the RNTCP and to identify their basic demographic characteristics.

Methods

A cross sectional community-based survey in 30 districts. Patients were identified through a door-to-door survey and interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire.

Results

Of the estimated 75,000 households enumerated, 73,249 households (97.6%) were visited. Of the 371,174 household members, 761 TB patients were identified (∼205 cases per 100,000 populations). Data were collected from 609 (80%) TB patients of which 331 [54% (95% CI: 42–66%)] were determined to be taking treatment ‘under DOTS/RNTCP’. The remaining 278 [46% (95% CI: 34–57%)] were on treatment from ‘outside DOTS/RNTCP’ sources and hence were unlikely to be part of the TB notification system. Patients who were accessing treatment from ‘outside DOTS/RNTCP’ were more likely to be patients from rural areas [adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 2.5, 95% CI (1.2–5.3)] and whose TB was diagnosed in a non-government health facility (aOR 14.0, 95% CI 7.9–24.9).

Conclusions

This community-based survey found that nearly half of self-reported TB patients were missed by TB notification system in these districts. The study highlights the need for 1) Reviewing and revising the scope of the TB notification system, 2) Strengthening and monitoring health care delivery systems with periodic assessment of the reach and utilisation of the RNTCP services especially among rural communities, 3) Advocacy, communication and social mobilisation activities focused at rural communities with low household incomes and 4) Inclusive involvement of all health-care providers, especially providers of poor rural communities.     

Risk factors for progression from severe maternal morbidity to death: a national cohort study

Background

Women continue to die unnecessarily during or after pregnancy in the developed world. The aim of this analysis was to compare women with severe maternal morbidities who survived with those who died, to quantify the risk associated with identified factors to inform policy and practice to improve survival.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a national cohort analysis using data from two sources obtained between 2003 and 2009: the Centre for Maternal and Child Enquiries maternal deaths database and the United Kingdom Obstetric Surveillance System database. Included women had eclampsia, antenatal pulmonary embolism, amniotic fluid embolism, acute fatty liver of pregnancy or antenatal stroke. These conditions were chosen as major causes of maternal mortality and morbidity about which data were available through both sources, and include 42% of direct maternal deaths over the study period. Rates, risk ratios, crude and adjusted odd ratios were used to investigate risks factors for maternal death. Multiple imputation and sensitivity analysis were used to handle missing data.We identified 476 women who survived and 100 women who died. Maternal death was associated with older age (35+ years aOR 2.36, 95%CI 1.22–4.56), black ethnicity (aOR 2.38, 95%CI 1.15–4.92), and unemployed, routine or manual occupation (aOR 2.19, 95%CI 1.03–4.68). An association was also observed with obesity (BMI≥30 kg/m² aOR 2.73, 95%CI 1.15–6.46).

Conclusions

Ongoing high quality national surveillance programmes have an important place in addressing challenges in maternal health and care. There is a place for action to reverse the rising trends in maternal age at childbirth, and to reduce the burden of obesity in pregnancy, as well as ongoing recognition of the impact of older maternal age on the risks of pregnancy. Development and evaluation of services to mitigate the risk of dying associated with black ethnicity and lower socioeconomic status is also essential.     

Population-attributable risks for ischemic stroke in a community in South Brazil: a case-control study

Background

Risk factors for ischemic stroke are mostly known, but it is still unclear in most countries, what are their combined population-attributable risk percent (PAR%). In a case-control study the individual odds ratios (ORs) and the individual and combined PAR%, including risk factors not addressed in previous studies were estimated.

Methods

Cases and controls were selected from patients attending to an emergency department. Cases were patients aged with 45 years or more with the first episode of ischemic stroke, characterized by a focal neurological deficit or change in the mental status occurring during the previous 24 hours. Controls, matched to cases by age and gender, were selected from patients without neurological complaints.

Results

133 cases and 272 controls were studied. Odds ratios for ischemic stroke were: atrial fibrillation (27.3; CI 95% 7.5–99.9), left ventricular hypertrophy (20.3; CI 95% 8.8–46.4), history of hypertension (11.2; CI 95% 5.4–23.3), physical inactivity (6.6; CI 95% 3.3–13.1), low levels of HDL-cholesterol (5.0; CI 95%2.8–8.9), heavy smoking (2.8; CI 95% 1.5–5.0), carotid bruit (2.5; CI 95% 1.3–4.6), diabetes (2.4; CI 95% 1.4–4.0) and alcohol abuse (2.1; CI 95% 1.1–4.0), The combination of these risk factors accounted for 98.9% (95% CI; 96.4%–99.7%) of the PAR% for all stroke.

Conclusions

Nine risk factors, easily identified, explain almost 100% of the population attributable risk for ischemic stroke.     

Influenza-related mortality trends in Japanese and American seniors: evidence for the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren

Background

The historical Japanese influenza vaccination program targeted at schoolchildren provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the indirect benefits of vaccinating high-transmitter groups to mitigate disease burden among seniors. Here we characterize the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren based on data from Japan and the US.

Methods

We compared age-specific influenza-related excess mortality rates in Japanese seniors aged ≥65 years during the schoolchildren vaccination program (1978–1994) and after the program was discontinued (1995–2006). Indirect vaccine benefits were adjusted for demographic changes, socioeconomics and dominant influenza subtype; US mortality data were used as a control.

Results

We estimate that the schoolchildren vaccination program conferred a 36% adjusted mortality reduction among Japanese seniors (95%CI: 17–51%), corresponding to ∼1,000 senior deaths averted by vaccination annually (95%CI: 400–1,800). In contrast, influenza-related mortality did not change among US seniors, despite increasing vaccine coverage in this population.

Conclusions

The Japanese schoolchildren vaccination program was associated with substantial indirect mortality benefits in seniors.     

Late entry into HIV care: estimated impact on AIDS mortality rates in Brazil, 2003-2006

Background

Worldwide, a high proportion of HIV-infected individuals enter into HIV care late. Here, our objective was to estimate the impact that late entry into HIV care has had on AIDS mortality rates in Brazil.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed data from information systems regarding HIV-infected adults who sought treatment at public health care facilities in Brazil from 2003 to 2006. We initially estimated the prevalence of late entry into HIV care, as well as the probability of death in the first 12 months, the percentage of the risk of death attributable to late entry, and the number of avoidable deaths. We subsequently adjusted the annual AIDS mortality rate by excluding such deaths. Of the 115,369 patients evaluated, 50,358 (43.6%) had entered HIV care late, and 18,002 died in the first 12 months, representing a 16.5% probability of death in the first 12 months (95% CI: 16.3–16.7). By comparing patients who entered HIV care late with those who gained timely access, we found that the risk ratio for death was 49.5 (95% CI: 45.1–54.2). The percentage of the risk of death attributable to late entry was 95.5%, translating to 17,189 potentially avoidable deaths. Averting those deaths would have lowered the 2003–2006 AIDS mortality rate by 39.5%. Including asymptomatic patients with CD4⁺ T cell counts >200 and ≤350 cells/mm³ in the group who entered HIV care late increased this proportion by 1.8%.

Conclusions/Significance

In Brazil, antiretroviral drugs reduced AIDS mortality by 43%. Timely entry would reduce that rate by a similar proportion, as well as resulting in a 45.2% increase in the effectiveness of the program for HIV care. The World Health Organization recommendation that asymptomatic patients with CD4⁺ T cell counts ≤350 cells/mm³ be treated would not have a significant impact on this scenario.     

Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in Libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements

Background

Mental disorders are likely to be elevated in the Libyan population during the post-conflict period. We estimated cases of severe PTSD and depression and related health service requirements using modelling from existing epidemiological data and current recommended mental health service targets in low and middle income countries (LMIC’s).

Methods

Post-conflict prevalence estimates were derived from models based on a previously conducted systematic review and meta-regression analysis of mental health among populations living in conflict. Political terror ratings and intensity of exposure to traumatic events were used in predictive models. Prevalence of severe cases was applied to chosen populations along with uncertainty ranges. Six populations deemed to be affected by the conflict were chosen for modelling: Misrata (population of 444,812), Benghazi (pop. 674,094), Zintan (pop. 40,000), displaced people within Tripoli/Zlitan (pop. 49,000), displaced people within Misrata (pop. 25,000) and Ras Jdir camps (pop. 3,700). Proposed targets for service coverage, resource utilisation and full-time equivalent staffing for management of severe cases of major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are based on a published model for LMIC’s.

Findings

Severe PTSD prevalence in populations exposed to a high level of political terror and traumatic events was estimated at 12.4% (95%CI 8.5–16.7) and was 19.8% (95%CI 14.0–26.3) for severe depression. Across all six populations (total population 1,236,600), the conflict could be associated with 123,200 (71,600–182,400) cases of severe PTSD and 228,100 (134,000–344,200) cases of severe depression; 50% of PTSD cases were estimated to co-occur with severe depression. Based upon service coverage targets, approximately 154 full-time equivalent staff would be required to respond to these cases sufficiently which is substantially below the current level of resource estimates for these regions.

Discussion

This is the first attempt to predict the mental health burden and consequent service response needs of such a conflict, and is crucially timed for Libya.     

Effect of Birth Year on Birth Weight and Obesity in Adulthood: Comparison between Subjects Born Prior to and during the Great Depression in Iceland

Background

Many epidemiological studies have linked small size at birth to adverse adult health outcomes but the relative influence of environmental exposures is less well established.

Methods

The authors investigated the impact of prenatal environmental exposure by comparing 2750 participants born before (1925–1929) and during (1930–1934) the Great Depression in Reykjavik, Iceland. Calendar year served as proxy for environmental effects. Anthropometric measurements at birth and school-age (8–13 years) were collected from national registries. Participants were medically examined as adults (33–65 years).

Results

Mean birth weight, adjusted for maternal age and parity, decreased by 97 g (95% confidence interval (CI): 39, 156) for men and 70 g (95% CI: 11, 129) for women from 1925 to 1934; growth at school-age was significantly reduced for participants growing during the Depression. As adults, women prenatally exposed to the Depression had higher body mass index (Δ0.6 kg/m², 95% CI: 0.2, 1.1), higher fasting blood glucose levels (Δ0.16 mmol/L, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.23) and greater odds of being obese 1.43 (95% CI: 1.01, 2.02) compared to unexposed counterparts. Non-significant associations were observed in men.

Conclusion

Reduction in birth weight due to rapid shifts in the economic environment appears to have a modest but significant association with later obesity for women while male offspring appear to be less affected by these conditions.     

Estimated drug overdose deaths averted by North America's first medically-supervised safer injection facility

Background

Illicit drug overdose remains a leading cause of premature mortality in urban settings worldwide. We sought to estimate the number of deaths potentially averted by the implementation of a medically supervised safer injection facility (SIF) in Vancouver, Canada.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The number of potentially averted deaths was calculated using an estimate of the local ratio of non-fatal to fatal overdoses. Inputs were derived from counts of overdose deaths by the British Columbia Vital Statistics Agency and non-fatal overdose rates from published estimates. Potentially-fatal overdoses were defined as events within the SIF that required the provision of naloxone, a 911 call or an ambulance. Point estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) were calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Between March 1, 2004 and July 1, 2008 there were 1004 overdose events in the SIF of which 453 events matched our definition of potentially fatal. In 2004, 2005 and 2006 there were 32, 37 and 38 drug-induced deaths in the SIF''s neighbourhood. Owing to the wide range of non-fatal overdose rates reported in the literature (between 5% and 30% per year) we performed sensitivity analyses using non-fatal overdose rates of 50, 200 and 300 per 1,000 person years. Using these model inputs, the number of averted deaths were, respectively: 50.9 (95% CI: 23.6–78.1); 12.6 (95% CI: 9.6–15.7); 8.4 (95% CI: 6.5–10.4) during the study period, equal to 1.9 to 11.7 averted deaths per annum.

Conclusions/Significance

Based on a conservative estimate of the local ratio of non-fatal to fatal overdoses, the potentially fatal overdoses in the SIF during the study period could have resulted in between 8 and 51 deaths had they occurred outside the facility, or from 6% to 37% of the total overdose mortality burden in the neighborhood during the study period. These data should inform the ongoing debates over the future of the pilot project.     

Estimating pneumonia deaths of post-neonatal children in countries of low or no death certification in 2008

Background

Pneumonia is the leading cause of child deaths globally. The aims of this study were to: a) estimate the number and global distribution of pneumonia deaths for children 1–59 months for 2008 for countries with low (<85%) or no coverage of death certification using single-cause regression models and b) compare these country estimates with recently published ones based on multi-cause regression models.

Methods and Findings

For 35 low child-mortality countries with <85% coverage of death certification, a regression model based on vital registration data of low child-mortality and >85% coverage of death certification countries was used. For 87 high child-mortality countries pneumonia death estimates were obtained by applying a regression model developed from published and unpublished verbal autopsy data from high child-mortality settings. The total number of 1–59 months pneumonia deaths for the year 2008 for these 122 countries was estimated to be 1.18 M (95% CI 0.77 M–1.80 M), which represented 23.27% (95% CI 17.15%–32.75%) of all 1–59 month child deaths. The country level estimation correlation coefficient between these two methods was 0.40.

Interpretation

Although the overall number of post-neonatal pneumonia deaths was similar irrespective to the method of estimation used, the country estimate correlation coefficient was low, and therefore country-specific estimates should be interpreted with caution. Pneumonia remains the leading cause of child deaths and is greatest in regions of poverty and high child-mortality. Despite the concerns about gender inequity linked with childhood mortality we could not estimate sex-specific pneumonia mortality rates due to the inadequate data. Life-saving interventions effective in preventing and treating pneumonia mortality exist but few children in high pneumonia disease burden regions are able to access them. To achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 target to reduce child deaths by two-thirds in year 2015 will require the scale-up of access to these effective pneumonia interventions.     

Can Volunteer Community Health Workers Decrease Child Morbidity and Mortality in Southwestern Uganda? An Impact Evaluation

Background

The potential for community health workers to improve child health in sub-Saharan Africa is not well understood. Healthy Child Uganda implemented a volunteer community health worker child health promotion model in rural Uganda. An impact evaluation was conducted to assess volunteer community health workers'' effect on child morbidity, mortality and to calculate volunteer retention.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Two volunteer community health workers were selected, trained and promoted child health in each of 116 villages (population ∼61,000) during 2006–2009. Evaluation included a household survey of mothers at baseline and post-intervention in intervention/control areas, retrospective reviews of community health worker birth/child death reports and post-intervention focus group discussions. Retention was calculated from administrative records. Main outcomes were prevalence of recent child illness/underweight status, community health worker reports of child deaths, focus group perception of effect, and community health worker retention. After 18–36 months, 86% of trained volunteers remained active. Post-intervention surveys in intervention households revealed absolute reductions of 10.2% [95%CI (−17.7%, −2.6%)] in diarrhea prevalence and 5.8% [95%CI (−11.5%, −0.003%)] in fever/malaria; comparative decreases in control households were not statistically significant. Underweight prevalence was reduced by 5.1% [95%CI (−10.7%, 0.4%)] in intervention households. Community health worker monthly reports revealed a relative decline of 53% in child deaths (<5 years old), during the first 18 months of intervention. Focus groups credited community health workers with decreasing child deaths, improved care-seeking practices, and new income-generating opportunities.

Conclusions/Significance

A low-cost child health promotion model using volunteer community health workers demonstrated decreased child morbidity, dramatic mortality trend declines and high volunteer retention. This sustainable model could be scaled-up to sub-Saharan African communities with limited resources and high child health needs.