Warming experiments elucidate the drivers of observed directional changes in tundra vegetation

Few studies have clearly linked long‐term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long‐term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes.     

Responses of plant biomass,photosynthesis and lipid peroxidation to warming and precipitation change in two dominant species (Stipa grandis and Leymus chinensis) from North China Grasslands

Influential factors of global change affect plant carbon uptake and biomass simultaneously. Although the effects from warming and precipitation change have been extensive studied separately, the responses of plant biomass, photosynthesis, and lipid peroxidation to the interaction of these factors are still not fully understood. In this study, we examined the physiological responses of two dominant plant species from grasslands of northern China with different functional traits to combinations of five simulated warming patterns and five simulated precipitation patterns in environment‐controlled chambers. Our results showed that the biomass, net CO₂ assimilation rate (P_n), maximal efficiency of photosystem II photochemistry (F_v/F_m), and chlorophyll content (Chl) of Stipa grandis and Leymus chinensis were enhanced by moderate warming and plus precipitation, but they declined drastically with high temperature and drought. High temperature and drought also led to significant malondialdehyde (MDA) accumulation, which had a negative correlation with leaf biomass. The lower level of lipid peroxidation in leaves of S. grandis suggests that this species is better protected from oxidative damage under heat stress, drought stress and their interactive conditions than L. chinensis. Using the subordinate function values method, we found S. grandis to be more sensitive to climate change than L. chinensis and the gross biomass and root biomass of S. grandis and the leaf biomass of L. chinensis were most sensitive to climate change. Furthermore, the P_n of both S. grandis and L. chinensis had a significant linear relationship with F_v/F_m and Chl, indicating that carbon assimilation may be caused by nonstomatal limitations.     

A global perspective of ground level, ‘ambient’ carbon dioxide for assessing the response of plants to atmospheric CO2

For most studies involving the response of plants to future concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), a current concentration of 360–370 μatm is assumed, based on recent data obtained from the Mauna Loa observatory. In the present study, average seasonal diurnal values of ambient CO₂ obtained at ground level from three global locations (Australia, Japan and the USA) indicated that the average CO₂ (at canopy height) can vary from over 500 μatm at night to 350 μatm during the day with average 24‐h values ranging from 390 to 465 μatm. At all sites sampled, ambient CO₂ rose to a maximum value during the pre‐dawn period (03.00–06.00 hours); at sunrise, CO₂ remained elevated for several hours before declining to a steady‐state concentration between 350 and 400 μatm by mid‐morning (08.00–10.00 hours). Responses of plant growth to simulations of the observed variation of in situ CO₂ were compared to growth at a constant CO₂ concentration in controlled environment chambers. Three diurnal patterns were used (constant 370 μatm CO₂, constant 370 during the day (07.00–19.00 hours), high CO₂ (500 μatm) at night; or, high CO₂ (500 μatm) at night and during the early morning (07.00–09.00 hours) decreasing to 370 μatm by 10.00 hours). Three plant species ? soybean (Glycine max, L (Merr.), velvetleaf (Abutilon theophrasti L.) and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) ? were grown in each of these environments. For soybean, high night‐time CO₂ resulted in a significant increase in net assimilation rate (NAR), plant growth, leaf area and biomass relative to a constant ambient value of CO₂ by 29 days after sowing. Significant increases in NAR for all three species, and significant increases in leaf area, growth and total biomass for two of the three C3 species tested (velvetleaf and soybean) were also observed after 29 days post sowing for the high night/early morning diurnal pattern of CO₂. Data from these experiments suggest that the ambient CO₂ concentration experienced by some plants is higher than the Mauna Loa average, and that growth of some agricultural species at in situ CO₂ levels can differ significantly from the constant CO₂ value used as a control in many CO₂ experiments. This suggests that a reassessment of control conditions used to quantify the response of plants to future, elevated CO₂ may be required.     

Geographic characteristics of sable (Martes zibellina) distribution over time in Northeast China

Understanding historical context can help clarify the ecological and biogeographic characteristics of species population changes. The sable (Martes zibellina ) population has decreased dramatically in Northeast China since the l950s, and understanding the changes in its distribution over time is necessary to support conservation efforts. To achieve this goal, we integrated ecological niche modeling and historical records of sables to estimate the magnitude of change in their distribution over time. Our results revealed a 51.71% reduction in their distribution in 2000–2016 compared with the potential distribution in the 1950s. This reduction was related to climate change (Pearson's correlation: Bio1, ?.962, p  < .01; Bio2, ?.962, p  < .01; Bio5, .817, p  < .05; Bio6, .847, p  < .05) and human population size (?.956, p  < .01). The sable population tended to migrate in different directions and elevations over time in different areas due to climate change: In the Greater Khingan Mountains, they moved northward and to lower elevations; in the Lesser Khingan Mountains, they moved northward; and in the Changbai Mountains, they move southward and to higher elevations. Active conservation strategies should be considered in locations where sable populations have migrated or may migrate to.     

The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European‐wide study

This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO₂ effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982–2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040–2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process‐based crop model, SIMPLACE . We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr^?1). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO₂ effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO₂ effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area.     

Long‐term continental changes in wing length,but not bill length,of a long‐distance migratory shorebird

We compiled a >50‐year record of morphometrics for semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pusilla), a shorebird species with a Nearctic breeding distribution and intercontinental migration to South America. Our data included >57,000 individuals captured 1972–2015 at five breeding locations and three major stopover sites, plus 139 museum specimens collected in earlier decades. Wing length increased by ca. 1.5 mm (>1%) prior to 1980, followed by a decrease of 3.85 mm (nearly 4%) over the subsequent 35 years. This can account for previously reported changes in metrics at a migratory stopover site from 1985 to 2006. Wing length decreased at a rate of 1,098 darwins, or 0.176 haldanes, within the ranges of other field studies of phenotypic change. Bill length, in contrast, showed no consistent change over the full period of our study. Decreased body size as a universal response of animal populations to climate warming, and several other potential mechanisms, are unable to account for the increasing and decreasing wing length pattern observed. We propose that the post‐WWII near‐extirpation of falcon populations and their post‐1973 recovery driven by the widespread use and subsequent limitation on DDT in North America selected initially for greater flight efficiency and latterly for greater agility. This predation danger hypothesis accounts for many features of the morphometric data and deserves further investigation in this and other species.     

Impacts of herbaceous bioenergy crops on atmospheric volatile organic composition and potential consequences for global climate change

The introduction of new crops to agroecosystems can change the chemical composition of the atmosphere by altering the amount and type of plant‐derived biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). BVOCs are produced by plants to aid in defense, pollination, and communication. Once released into the atmosphere, they have the ability to influence its chemical and physical properties. In this study, we compared BVOC emissions from three potential bioenergy crops and estimated their theoretical impacts on bioenergy agroecosystems. The crops chosen were miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), and an assemblage of prairie species (mix of ~28 species). The concentration of BVOCs was different within and above plant canopies. All crops produced higher levels of emissions at the upper canopy level. Miscanthus produced lower amounts of volatiles compared with other grasses. The chemical composition of volatiles differed significantly among plant communities. BVOCs from miscanthus were depleted in terpenoids relative to the other vegetation types. The carbon flux via BVOC emissions, calculated using the flux‐gradient method, was significantly higher in the prairie assemblage compared with miscanthus and switchgrass. The BVOC carbon flux was approximately three orders of magnitude lower than the net fluxes of carbon measured over the same fields using eddy covariance systems. Extrapolation of our findings to the landscape scale leads us to suggest that the widespread adoption of bioenergy crops could potentially alter the composition of BVOCs in the atmosphere, thereby influencing its warming potential, the formation of atmospheric particulates, and interactions between plants and arthropods. Our data and projections indicate that, among at least these three potential options for bioenergy production, miscanthus is likely to have lower impacts on atmospheric chemistry and biotic interactions mediated by these volatiles when miscanthus is planted on the landscape scale.     

Seasonal variation in life history traits in two Drosophila species

Seasonal environmental heterogeneity is cyclic, persistent and geographically widespread. In species that reproduce multiple times annually, environmental changes across seasonal time may create different selection regimes that may shape the population ecology and life history adaptation in these species. Here, we investigate how two closely related species of Drosophila in a temperate orchard respond to environmental changes across seasonal time. Natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila simulans were sampled at four timepoints from June through November to assess seasonal change in fundamental aspects of population dynamics as well as life history traits. D. melanogaster exhibit pronounced change across seasonal time: early in the season, the population is inferred to be uniformly young and potentially represents the early generation following overwintering survivorship. D. melanogaster isofemale lines derived from the early population and reared in a common garden are characterized by high tolerance to a variety of stressors as well as a fast rate of development in the laboratory environment that declines across seasonal time. In contrast, wild D. simulans populations were inferred to be consistently heterogeneous in age distribution across seasonal collections; only starvation tolerance changed predictably over seasonal time in a parallel manner as in D. melanogaster. These results suggest fundamental differences in population and evolutionary dynamics between these two taxa associated with seasonal heterogeneity in environmental parameters and associated selection pressures.     

Using restoration as an experimental framework to test provenancing strategies and climate adaptability

Restoring degraded Australian landscapes through revegetation is a key concern of land holders, NGOs and government agencies. With the advent of climate change, it is increasingly important that revegetation activities take into consideration the species and provenance of plant materials to ensure that environmental plantings will be resilient to future climate conditions. A major strength of the past 30 years restoration programmes is the development of a distributed network of educated and experienced practitioners. We have recently invited stakeholders from among this network to participate in a process to cost‐effectively build Environmental Research Infrastructure – a nationally distributed network of restoration plantings that explore a broad range of research activities including a better understanding of the adaptive responses of different species and provenances. This would also facilitate long‐term monitoring of change and adaptation across Australia, providing a wealth of information to inform future conservation and restoration programmes.     

Combined effect of elevated UVB,elevated temperature and fertilization on growth,needle structure and phytochemistry of young Norway spruce (Picea abies) seedlings

Simultaneously with warming climate, other climatic and environmental factors are also changing. Here, we investigated for the first time the effects of elevated temperature, increased ultraviolet‐B (UVB) radiation, fertilization and all combinations of these on the growth, secondary chemistry and needle structure of 1‐year‐old Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) seedlings in an outdoor experiment. After one growing season, elevated temperature increased root : shoot ratio and concentrations of needle piperidine alkaloids, while concentrations of needle catechins and acetophenones and bark flavonoids decreased compared with ambient temperature seedlings. UVB‐radiation increased concentrations of bark condensed tannins, while fertilization increased total biomass and concentrations of needle catechins. In addition to the main effects, concentrations of some individual phenolic compounds showed UV × temperature or UV × temperature × fertilization interactions, and fertilization modified temperature response on root : shoot ratio. All the treatments described here affected the defence chemistry profiles of the seedlings, which may imply some changes in plant‐herbivore interactions in connection with changing climate. The interactions between treatments indicate a need for further experiments involving several simultaneously affecting environmental changes.     

The effects of different cold‐temperature regimes on development,growth, and susceptibility to an abiotic and biotic stressor

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Using genetic variation to infer associations with climate in the common frog,Rana temporaria

Recent and historical species' associations with climate can be inferred using molecular markers. This knowledge of population and species‐level responses to climatic variables can then be used to predict the potential consequences of ongoing climate change. The aim of this study was to predict responses of Rana temporaria to environmental change in Scotland by inferring historical and contemporary patterns of gene flow in relation to current variation in local thermal conditions. We first inferred colonization patterns within Europe following the last glacial maximum by combining new and previously published mitochondrial DNA sequences. We found that sequences from our Scottish samples were identical to (92%), or clustered with, the common haplotype previously identified from Western Europe. This clade showed very low mitochondrial variation, which did not allow inference of historical colonization routes but did allow interpretation of patterns of current fine‐scale population structure without consideration of confounding historical variation. Second, we assessed fine‐scale microsatellite‐based patterns of genetic variation in relation to current altitudinal temperature gradients. No population structure was found within altitudinal gradients (average F_ST = 0.02), despite a mean annual temperature difference of 4.5 °C between low‐ and high‐altitude sites. Levels of genetic diversity were considerable and did not vary between sites. The panmictic population structure observed, even along temperature gradients, is a potentially positive sign for R. temporaria persistence in Scotland in the face of a changing climate. This study demonstrates that within taxonomic groups, thought to be at high risk from environmental change, levels of vulnerability can vary, even within species.     

Long‐term dynamics in microbial eukaryotes communities: a palaeolimnological view based on sedimentary DNA

Assessing the extent to which changes in lacustrine biodiversity are affected by anthropogenic or climatic forces requires extensive palaeolimnological data. We used high‐throughput sequencing to generate time‐series data encompassing over 2200 years of microbial eukaryotes (protists and Fungi) diversity changes from the sedimentary DNA record of two lakes (Lake Bourget in French Alps and Lake Igaliku in Greenland). From 176 samples, we sequenced a large diversity of microbial eukaryotes, with a total 16 386 operational taxonomic units distributed within 50 phylogenetic groups. Thus, microbial groups, such as Chlorophyta, Dinophyceae, Haptophyceae and Ciliophora, that were not previously considered in lacustrine sediment record analyses appeared to be potential biological markers of trophic status changes. Our data suggest that shifts in relative abundance of extant species, including shifts between rare and abundant taxa, drive ecosystem responses to local and global environmental changes. Community structure shift events were concomitant with major climate variations (more particularly in Lake Igaliku). However, this study shows that the impacts of climatic fluctuations may be overpassed by the high‐magnitude eutrophication impacts, as observed in the eutrophicated Lake Bourget. Overall, our data show that DNA preserved in sediment constitutes a precious archive of information on past biodiversity changes.     

Changes in the range of the medicinal herb Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) under climate change

• Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) is one of the most common and least expensive herbal medicines for eye disease. This species is facing potential threats from climate change. Insufficient biogeographic knowledge of this plant species can hinder its effective management for long‐term population survival.
• We integrated ecological niche modelling (Biomod2) with 70 records of E. buergerianum and eight environmental variables to estimate changes in distribution over time. A core area Zonation algorithm was introduced to identify conservation priority areas.
• Our results indicate that the range of E. buergerianum will likely decrease in the future: the overall range change on average is ?44.36 ± 21.56% (?3.70% to ?77.73%); values of range loss and range gain are 45.79 ± 20.30% (9.29–78.19%) and 1.43 ± 1.53% (0.18–5.59%), respectively. According to conservation priority analysis, the mandatory reserve (top 5%), negotiable reserve (0.95–0.9) and partial reserve (0.9–0.8) areas are 19,799, 19,799 and 39,597 km², respectively. The areas identified as conservation priority are located in the southeast, especially in northern Taiwan and the Wuyi Mountains.
• Based on these results, we suggest a re‐evaluation of the threatened status of this species, with a potential upgrade to the vulnerable (VU) category. To overcome the adverse conditions faced by populations of E. buergerianum in China, we propose a multi‐faceted conservation strategy involving more complete resource assessment, a monitoring system, medical research focused on revealing medicinal components or substitutes, and a regional development plan that considers both wildlife and socio‐economic issues.

     

Evidence for lower plasticity in CTMAX at warmer developmental temperatures

Understanding the capacity for different species to reduce their susceptibility to climate change via phenotypic plasticity is essential for accurately predicting species extinction risk. The climatic variability hypothesis suggests that spatial and temporal variation in climatic variables should select for more plastic phenotypes. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is limited. Here, we examine the capacity for ten Drosophila species to increase their critical thermal maxima (CT_MAX) through developmental acclimation and/or adult heat hardening. Using four fluctuating developmental temperature regimes, ranging from 13 to 33 °C, we find that most species can increase their CT_MAX via developmental acclimation and adult hardening, but found no relationship between climatic variables and absolute measures of plasticity. However, when plasticity was dissected across developmental temperatures, a positive association between plasticity and one measure of climatic variability (temperature seasonality) was found when development took place between 26 and 28 °C, whereas a negative relationship was found when development took place between 20 and 23 °C. In addition, a decline in CT_MAX and egg‐to‐adult viability, a proxy for fitness, was observed in tropical species at the warmer developmental temperatures (26–28 °C); this suggests that tropical species may be at even greater risk from climate change than currently predicted. The combined effects of developmental acclimation and adult hardening on CT_MAX were small, contributing to a <0.60 °C shift in CT_MAX. Although small shifts in CT_MAX may increase population persistence in the shorter term, the degree to which they can contribute to meaningful responses in the long term is unclear.     

Regional patterns of increasing Swiss needle cast impacts on Douglas‐fir growth with warming temperatures

The fungal pathogen, Phaeocryptopus gaeumannii, causing Swiss needle cast (SNC) occurs wherever Douglas‐fir is found but disease damage is believed to be limited in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) to the Coast Range of Oregon and Washington (Hansen et al., Plant Disease, 2000, 84, 773; Rosso & Hansen, Phytopathology, 2003, 93, 790; Shaw, et al., Journal of Forestry, 2011, 109, 109). However, knowledge remains limited on the history and spatial distribution of SNC impacts in the PNW. We reconstructed the history of SNC impacts on mature Douglas‐fir trees based on tree‐ring width chronologies from western Oregon. Our findings show that SNC impacts on growth occur wherever Douglas‐fir is found and is not limited to the coastal fog zone. The spatiotemporal patterns of growth impact from SNC disease were synchronous across the region, displayed periodicities of 12–40 years, and strongly correlated with winter and summer temperatures and summer precipitation. The primary climatic factor limiting pathogen dynamics varied spatially by location, topography, and elevation. SNC impacts were least severe in the first half of the 20th century when climatic conditions during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (1924–1945) were less conducive to pathogen development. At low‐ to mid‐elevations, SNC impacts were most severe in 1984–1986 following several decades of warmer winters and cooler, wetter summers including a high summer precipitation anomaly in 1983. At high elevations on the west slope of the Cascade Range, SNC impacts peaked several years later and were the greatest in the 1990s, a period of warmer winter temperatures. Climate change is predicted to result in warmer winters and will likely continue to increase SNC severity at higher elevations, north along the coast from northern Oregon to British Columbia, and inland where low winter temperatures currently limit growth of the pathogen. Our findings indicate that SNC may become a significant forest health problem in areas of the PNW beyond the coastal fog zone.     

Modelling lake cyanobacterial blooms: Disentangling the climate‐driven impacts of changing mixed depth and water temperature

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