易感地带的日本血吸虫病传播动力学模型及其定性分析

在血吸虫病流行病学上,把容易感染血吸虫病的地方称为易感地带.易感地带的特点:一是人、多种牲畜作为终宿主参与了血吸虫病的传播,终宿主的种群数 m 大于2;二是各终宿主的平均虫体负荷较大.     

持续性疾病流行和血吸虫病在多个脊椎动物宿主中的瞬时振动

血吸虫是一种寄生在脊椎动物上有助于消化的地方或血管中的寄生虫．它们共有复杂的生活史,其中包括中间阶段的软体动物和一个脊椎动物宿主．根据MacDonald和May的工作,我们研究了一个基于血吸虫生活史的多个时滞的动力学模型,并且包含了一个由May和Wo11house提出的交配函数,当我们改变交配函数中的一个参数,血吸虫病的动力学行为从一个持久的疾病传播变成了疾病消失．如果增加雌性血吸虫的成熬周期,或交配周期和产卵周期,我们能够观察到长时间疾病传播的瞬时振动,这说明了对疾病的预测不依赖在一个特定时间的疾病水平,而是依赖一个充分长时间的疾病水平。     

HIV感染动力学模型概述

自1981年美国首次发现艾滋病以来,艾滋病在世界范围内广泛传播,引起医学专家、生物学家、数学家和物理学家等的极大关注。近年来,HIV动力学模型成为HIV治疗领域的研究热点。HIV基本动力学模型的研究有助于实现对未来疾病发展状况的描述与预测,HIV感染控制模型的研究有助于改善HIV病毒患者的治疗方案,对控制模型的优化有利于发现对HIV患者的有效治疗策略。本文概述了几种基本的HIV感染动力学模型,分析比较了它们的性能差异和各自存在的优缺点,介绍了HIV控制模型及其优化控制模型的计算机Matlab/simulink模拟。     

鼠疫传播动力学模型的构建研究

目的:采用疾病传播动力学模型描述鼠疫的流行特征,为科学地制定鼠疫的防控措施提供理论依据。方法:运用微分方程建立鼠间鼠疫和人间鼠疫的传播动力学模型,分析模型中各参数与疫情发展变化的关系。结果:使用基本繁殖率,平均鼠密度,感染者平均病死率,感染者平均治愈率等参数描述感染率随时间的变化趋势。结论:根据鼠间传播期、疫区传播期和人群扩散期的传播特点,分别开展各项防控工作,能够更好地控制鼠疫疫情。     

耕作的数值模型及其应用

种子发芽与出苗主要受土壤水分与温度的影响。在研究非均质土壤起伏不平的地表与大气间水分能量交换过程的数值分析方法的基础上,发展了耕作对土壤水分与温度影响的基于有限元分析方法的数值模型。作为应用研究,讨论了不同的耕作方式如镇压,少耕与沟种垄作对土壤水分、温度的影响,并介绍了模型用于陕北的沟种设计。本项研究为农业生态学提供了一种基于模型－模拟－优化的定量分析方法。     

湖泊生态系统动力学模型研究进展

从系统分析在湖泊生态系统动力学研究中的作用出发,对湖泊生态系统的动力学建模过程、方法和软件等进行了总结.在此基础上,综述了国内外湖泊生态系统动力学模型的发展.从1960年代至今,湖泊生态系统动力学模型从简单的零维模型发展到复杂的水质水动力学生态综合模型和生态结构动力学模型,如LakeWeb模型.中国的湖泊生态系统动力学模型研究始于20世纪80年代,主要集中在滇池、太湖、东湖和巢湖等富营养化严重的湖泊以及其他水体.目前,已经开发一些软件用于湖泊生态系统动力学模拟,主要有CEQUALICM、WASP、AQUATOX、PAMOLARE、CAEDYM等,以及用来模拟湖泊能流的软件ECOPATH.湖泊生态系统动力学模型还在监测、数据共享和模型结构、参数选取和不确定性分析等方面存在不足,需在今后的研究中加以改进.     

一个HIV感染的动力学模型

考虑到人体免疫缺损病毒(HIV)能感染和杀每T4细胞,病毒颗粒能从感染细胞膜上发芽而出以及感染细胞能与未感染细胞融合等实验事实,建议了一个细胞水平的人体免疫缺损病毒感染的动力学模型。利用这个模型,我们对HIV感染的动力学行为进行了分析。结果表明:在潜伏期,感染细胞的溶度和病毒的溶度都渐渐地趋于一个暂态的平衡值;在表达期,病毒溶度大幅度增加,正常T4细胞溶度渐渐减少,这也许正是AIDS病致病的原因。     

微生物动力学模式及其在工业发酵中的应用

发酵动力学可按不同的方法分类。根据微生物生长与产物形成有否偶联,一般可将其分成偶联型、非偶联型和混合型三种类型。对一个发酵过程进行动力学特别是秘学类型的研究,可为发酵过程的控制、小型试验数据的放大和提高生产效率等提供理论依据。     

谷氨酸发酵的动力学模型

本文利用实验所得数据对文献报道的有关谷氨酸发酵动力学模型逐一进行了模拟和比较分析,选出一组与实验数据拟合较好,而且是在一定理论下推导出来的模型。     

基因工程菌培养过程的动力学模型

基因工程技术是当代生物工程的核心．在实验室中已经应用基因工程菌株得到多种有重要价值的产矿1,但真正能转化为工业化生产的还不多。这主要因为工程菌培养技术是传统发酵工艺的延伸和发展,缺乏完善的理论和成熟的操作准则,使得工艺设计和操作存在较大缺陷。而对基因工程菌培养过程进行控制的关键在于解决这样一个问题m：宿主的生理遗传特性影响着外源基因的表达,外源基因的表达又影响着宿主的生长特性．研究其培养过程的动力学行为主要就是将二者之间的作用规律和控制因素了解清楚,建立合理的数学模型．因此工程菌培养过程的动力学研…     

一个血吸虫病数学模型的交替方向有限元分析

摘要：对血吸虫病数学模型利用交替方向Galerkin方法逼近模型(P)的解,并利用微分方程先验估计理论和技巧,进行近似解的收敛性分析,得到其最优L^2模误差估计．     

Schistosomiasis Transmission Model and its Control in Anhui Province

National Bureau of Statistics of China reports that the incidence of schistosomiasis has been increasing in recent years. To study dynamic behaviors of schistosomiasis transmission, based on practical experience of staff in Anhui Institute of Schistosomiasis, a mathematical schistosomiasis model with reinfection of recovered people is established in this paper. Metzler matrix theory and center manifold theorem are used to analyze stability of equilibria. Parameter estimation has been performed by combining model and monitoring data. It is found that the basic reproduction number is different every year. The most concern of Institute of Schistosomiasis is whether or when to kill snails every year. To answer this question, threshold value of snail density can be obtained. Once the snail density exceeds the threshold, the staff will need to kill snails. To find the best control measures, sensitivity analysis is used to find out sensitive parameters, and then control measures can be obtained by optimization control measures. The results show that combination of spraying molluscicide, publicity and education, improving the health facilities, and large-scale treatment of patient groups have the best effect. In additional, it is found that the number of patients does not change much when the reinfection rate of recovered people is very small. However, when the reinfection rate is slightly larger, the number of patients will suddenly increase to a large value.     

A Mathematical Model of Uterine Dynamics and its Application to Human Parturition

We have developed a simple mathematical model with three physiologically significant states to describe the changes in intrauterine pressure associated with a contraction during human parturition. The myometrium is modelled as a set of smooth muscle cells, each of which is in one of three states (quiescent, contracted, refractory) at a given time. These states are occupied according to a cycle governed by three temporal parameters. The solutions of the equations describing the model show an oscillatory behavior for particular values of these parameters, which is very similar to the time dependant development of intrauterine pressure during labor. Due to its non-linear terms, our model could lead to chaotic oscillations (in the mathematical sense), whose clinical counterpart may occur in cases of dystocia. Despite its simplicity, this model appears to be a useful guide to further investigations of the oscillatory behavior of the myometrium, or other smooth muscles, in normal and pathological situations.     

A Model for Multi-site Pacing of Fibrillation Using Nonlinear Dynamics Feedback

Traditionally, cardiac defibrillation requires a strong electric shock. Many unwanted side effects of this shock could be eliminated if defibrillation were performed using weak stimuli applied to several locations throughout the heart. Such multi-site pacing algorithms have been shown to defibrillate both experimentally (Pak et al., Am J Physiol 285:H2704–H2711, 2003) and theoretically (Puwal and Roth, J Biol Systems 14:101–112, 2006). Gauthier et al. (Chaos, 12:952–961, 2002) proposed a method to pace the heart using an algorithm based on nonlinear dynamics feedback applied through a single electrode. Our study applies a related but simpler algorithm, which essentially configures each electrode as a demand pacemaker, to simulate the multi-site pacing of fibrillating cardiac tissue. We use the numerical model developed by Fenton et al. (Chaos, 12:852–892, 2002) as the reaction term in a reaction–diffusion equation that we solve over a two-dimensional sheet of tissue. The defibrillation rate after pacing for 3 s is about 30%, which is significantly higher than the spontaneous defibrillation rate and is higher than observed in previous experimental and theoretical studies. Tuning the algorithm period can increase this rate to 45%. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The Dynamics of Growing Islets and Transmission of Schistosomiasis Japonica in the Yangtze River

We formulate and analyze a system of ordinary differential equations for the transmission of schistosomiasis japonica on the islets in the Yangtze River, China. The impact of growing islets on the spread of schistosomiasis is investigated by the bifurcation analysis. Using the projection technique developed by Hassard, Kazarinoff and Wan, the normal form of the cusp bifurcation of codimension 2 is derived to overcome the technical difficulties in studying the existence, stability, and bifurcation of the multiple endemic equilibria in high-dimensional phase space. We show that the model can also undergo transcritical bifurcations, saddle-node bifurcations, a pitchfork bifurcation, and Hopf bifurcations. The bifurcation diagrams and epidemiological interpretations are given. We conclude that when the islet reaches a critical size, the transmission cycle of the schistosomiasis japonica between wild rats Rattus norvegicus and snails Oncomelania hupensis could be established, which serves as a possible source of schistosomiasis transmission along the Yangtze River.     

水稻群体茎蘖动态的计算机模拟模型

水稻群体茎蘖动态的计算机模拟模型黄耀,高亮之,金之庆,陈华,葛道阔（江苏省在科院,南京２１００１４）ＳｉｍｕｌａｔｉｏｎＭｏｄｅｌｏｆＴｉｌｌｅｒｉｎｇＤｙｎａｍｉｃｓｏｆＲｉｃｅＣｏｍｍｕｎｉｔｙ．￥ＨｕａｎｇＹａｏ;ＧａｏＬｉａｎｇｚｈｉ;Ｊｉｎ...     

Schistosomiasis mass drug administration in the Philippines: lessons learnt and the global implications

Schistosomiasis was first reported in the Philippines in 1906. A variety of treatments have been deployed to cure infection and to control the disease in the long-term. We discuss the journey to combat the disease in the Philippines and the lessons learnt which have implications for schistosomiasis control globally.     

具有社会行为的HIV传播模型

考虑到HIV传播的社会行为的影响,建立了一个HIV传播的偏微分方程系统.利用预测校正方法我们给出了系统的数值解法,由此说明人的行为在HIV传播中的重要作用.     

A Kinetic Model for Human Platelet Survival with Long-Lasting Time-Activity Curves

A model is presented that allows for the interpretation of the time course of the level of radiolabeled platelets in terms of platelet survival times, rate constant for removal from circulation, pooling time in an extra pool, the rate at which platelets re-enter circulation from the extra-pool, and the size of the plasma pool and extra-pools. The tenets of the model are that: (1) platelets leave the circulation at a rate proportional to their number per unit volume; (2) of the leaving platelets, a fraction b goes into a pool from which they return into circulation after a pooling time and another fraction (1 - b) is irreversibly destroyed; (3) the platelets in the extra-pool do not “queue up”, and thus the distribution function describing the probability of return is exponential; and (4) the time activity curve of the radiolabeled platelets can be described by the sum of two exponentials. Under steady state conditions, curve fitting allows determination of the constants determining the time activity curve (the respective amplitudes and rate constants of the two exponentials); mean pooling time; relative pool size; and survival time of platelets. The model is applied to data collected from patients over a period from 10 days following reinjection of autologous radiolabeled platelets.