Comparative analysis of alternative statistical models for differentiation of herring stocks based on meristic characters

A basic stock assessment problem is the mixing and separation of herring populations in their specific areas. Within the transition zone between the North and the Baltic seas (Skagerrak, Kattegat, The Sound) a mixing of two herring populations ( Clupea harengus L.) temporarily takes place. One major component stems from the Baltic Sea (spring spawner), and the other from the North Sea (autumn spawner); each stock exhibits different meristic characteristics. In order to separate the two herring populations, 'pure' learning samples of meristic characters were created in 1995 as differential variables. Mainly gained during two research surveys at two geographically remote areas where a mixing of herring components was relatively unlikely, these learning samples were considered as representative for one or the other herring population. This paper compares the current (ICES) separation approach for herring stock assessment with two alternative methods wherein vertebra counts (vc) are used as meristic characters. The two proposed methods are (a) an inverted variance weighted linear model, and (b) a separation rule based on a quadratic discriminant analysis. The paper summarizes and discusses the results of predicting fractions of the two herring components derived from all three separation models. The underlying example data set stems from a 1991–97 routine Swedish survey in the transition zone. In comparison, the quadratic discriminant analysis separation model was identified as superior to the two other methods. Furthermore, the model suggests a higher degree of mixing of the two herring stocks in the transition area than was previously thought; inter-annual changes in the geographical distribution of the two populations are suggested as being less variable than previously assumed.     

Temperature-driven changes in early life-history stages influence the Gulf of Riga spring spawning herring (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clupea harengus m</Emphasis>.) recruitment abundance

Processes occurring during early life-history stages influence the year-class abundance of marine fish. We found that the abundance of 1-year-old spring spawning herring is statistically significantly determined by the number of post-flexion herring larvae in the Gulf of Riga (Baltic Sea). The abundance of consecutive developmental stages of larvae: yolk-sac, pre-flexion, flexion and post-flexion strongly correlated with each other, indicating that factors which already influence the yolk-sac stage are important in determining the abundance of post-flexion herring larvae. Winter air temperature before spawning determined the timing of maximum abundance of pre-flexion herring larvae, but not their main prey: copepod nauplii, implying that different mechanisms governing major preconditions for the formation of year-class strength. The abundance of post-flexion larvae displayed a potential dome-shaped relationship with sea surface temperature experienced after hatching. We suggest that increased summer temperatures, which exceed the physiological optimum negatively, affect the survival of post-flexion herring larvae. Overall, future climate warming poses an additional risk to larval herring survival and this may lead to a reduction in those herring stock which rely on recruitment from shallow coastal areas.     

Chinese mitten crab <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eriocheir sinensis</Emphasis> in the Baltic Sea—a supply-side invader?

Although the Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis (H. Milne-Edwards, 1853) (Crustacea, Decapoda, Varunidae) invaded the Baltic Sea about 80 years ago, published information on its present distribution and abundance in this region is lacking. We provide here information on its Baltic-wide distribution and long-term population dynamics. The species has been found all over the coastal Baltic Sea and also in some adjacent rivers and lakes. The Chinese mitten crab appears to have increased in abundance in recent years in the northeastern part of the Baltic Sea (Gulf of Finland, Gulf of Riga, northern Baltic Proper). Higher catch rates were observed in spring (April–June) and autumn (September–November). The size variation of crabs in different samples was low (mean carapace width 6.1–6.3 cm). Despite findings of gravid females, the reproduction of the mitten crab in the central, northern and eastern Baltic region is considered unlikely due to low salinity and the individuals caught are assumed to actively migrate into the region from the species’ main European distribution area (southeastern North Sea), certainly over 1500 km migration distance. Thus, the dynamics of the North Sea population is probably regulating, at least in part, the occurrence of the Chinese mitten crab in the Baltic Sea area.     

The dynamics of Baltic fish stocks based on a multispecies stock production model

The multispecies stock‐production model of Horbowy developed in 1996 was further extended to include the unexploited part of a stock. The model was then applied to simulate stock dynamics and species interactions of cod, herring, and sprat in the Baltic from 1982 to 2001. The model indicates that there have been large declines in cod and herring biomass over the past two decades and a strong increase in sprat biomass in the 1990s. Using the extended stock‐production model, the relative changes in stock biomass were similar to the changes derived using the age‐structured multispecies model, the multispecies virtual population analysis (MSVPA). However, the production model estimates of the average predation mortality of young cod and young sprat are much lower than those derived from MSVPA, although the estimates for young and adult herring and adult sprat are similar in both approaches. The estimates of food suitability show that the preferred food of adult cod is adult sprat and young herring, while the suitability of young sprat, young cod, and adult herring is much smaller. The simulations performed show that the multispecies production model, which is less data‐demanding than age‐structured MSVPA, can provide estimates of stock dynamics and species interactions that are largely consistent with those estimated by MSVPA. The quality of input data in terms of recruitment and fishing‐effort indices strongly impacts the reliability of the model's results.     

Tendencies in the Herring Population Development of the Baltic Sea

During the 1960's a change in population structure of Baltic herring started which resulted in the dominance of spring spawners in the entire Baltic since the beginning 1970's. Autumn spawning herring is very rare in the yields of fisheries since. This development has been accompanied by a likely increase of the total stock biomass of herring in the area. Yields of herring fisheries increased remarkable up to 1984, partly as a result of increased fishing effort. Recent developments of stock biomasses point to dependencies on fluctuations of growth rates. Growth is influenced by several environmental factors but is very likely especially dependent on abundance of food and on temperature. Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea increased perhaps the abundance of food for the planktonfeeding herring but it may have been contributing to the depletion of autumn spawning herring via the declining oxygen content of bottom water layers during the past 20 years.     

Progress and problems in U.S. marine fisheries rebuilding plans

The United States is somewhat unique among major fishing nations in mandating the rebuilding of overfished stocks within a specified period of time, a requirement first enacted in 1996. This study is based primarily on a review of trends in the 2000–2010 period in fishing mortality and biomass levels of stocks in rebuilding programs, supplemented by recent U.S. and international scientific literature. The major objectives of this study are, first, to assess progress achieved to date in these rebuilding plans, and, second, to identify the most significant obstacles to successful rebuilding. Sufficient data exists to monitor trends in fishing mortality and biomass levels number for just 35 stocks, out of a total 59 stocks that are currently rebuilding or have recently completed the rebuilding process. Most stocks in rebuilding plans are finfish, and the majority of are managed in relatively few fishery management plans governing fisheries in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and northwest Pacific portions of the U.S. 200-mile exclusive economic zone. Therefore, the findings of this report are tentative and do not necessarily reflect broader trends in U.S. federally managed fisheries. This report shows substantial progress in about two-thirds of the 35 rebuilding stocks included in this report. Progress is defined in two ways: either the rebuilding plan has reduced fishing mortality to an acceptably low level, or it has brought about stock recovery to a mandated target. Most significantly, the assessment of rebuilding plan case studies indicates that reductions in fishing mortality, especially when implemented early in the programs and maintained as long as necessary, lead to significant increases in stock abundance in roughly four of five stocks. At the same time, the case studies also show that, in about one-third of the rebuilding plans, recovery measures have not yet produced the desired outcomes. The two most common problems are failure to adequately control fishing mortality and low resilience (high susceptibility to fishing pressure) of certain categories of overfished stocks.     

Separating two herring stocks from growth data: long‐term changes in survey indices for Western Baltic Spring Spawning Herring (Clupea harengus) after application of a stock separation function

In the Baltic Sea, herring stocks are surveyed and managed according to a spatial allocation based on ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) subdivisions. In the western Baltic, the distribution areas of two stocks overlap: the Western Baltic Spring Spawning Herring (WBSSH) and the Central Baltic Herring (CBH). Survey results of length‐at‐age data indicate in Subdivision (SD) 24, which is a part of the WBSSH management area, that a considerable fraction of CBH is present and correspondingly erroneously allocated to WBSSH stock indices. Accordingly, a stock Separation Function (SF) based on growth parameters was established to identify the fraction of CBH in the WBSSH area. In the present study, the SF was applied to 8 years of data from the GERman Acoustic Survey (GERAS), which is conducted annually in autumn in ICES subdivisions 21‐24. Results showed a distinct fraction of CBH in SD 24, and exclusion of the CBH greatly improved the quality of the GERAS index used in the assessment of the WBSSH stock.     

Trends in the maternal investment of harbour porpoises are uncoupled from the dynamics of their primary prey

Harbour porpoises in the Bay of Fundy and Gulf of Maine feed primarily on Atlantic herring. Herring stocks have undergone dramatic fluctuations in abundance over the past three decades due to changes in fishing intensity. In order to understand the effects of these changes in prey abundance on the patterns of maternal investment, I examined interdecadal variation in the size of porpoise calves measured in August prior to weaning. Female harbour porpoises exhibited significant variation in maternal investment between 1970 and 1999. During the 1980s, females consumed more herring and produced larger calves. Surprisingly, however, this increased maternal investment occurred during the period of lowest prey abundance, perhaps because the herring stock assessment does not reflect the availability or quality of prey to female porpoises.     

Larval distribution, abundance, and stock structure of British Columbia herring

Pacific herring Clupea pallasi spawn in shallow and intertidal areas. Larval distributions and abundance of three major and several minor stocks were examined to determine if larvae mix among different spawning locations. The surveys were short, intensive, and occurred mainly within the first 30 days of larval life. Each major stock had a discrete larval distribution with continuous larval distributions within stock boundaries. Some overlap of distributions occurred among smaller stocks. Most larvae were found in inshore waters but there were no obvious oceanographic factors, such as fronts or eddies, to explain all the distributions. Estuarine circulation in inlets could promote larval retention in some areas. The results support the present geographic definitions for local herring stocks. The results are generally consistent with the concept of discrete larval distribution, including retention areas, as the basis for herring Stock Structure.     

Thiaminase activity of Baltic salmon prey species: a comparision of net- and predator-caught samples

Thiaminase activity was determined for Gulf of Bothnia (GB) and Gulf of Finland (GF) Baltic herring Clupea harengus membras , sprat Sprattus sprattus and three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus sampled from either trawl or gillnet catches or from Baltic salmon Salmo salar stomachs. The thiaminase activity in Baltic herring was about 10-fold higher than that in sprat, and there was almost no thiaminase activity in three-spined stickleback. Thiaminase activity of undigested Baltic herring found in Baltic salmon stomachs was significantly higher than that of trawl-caught Baltic herring from the same sea area, suggesting that there may be a higher risk of predation for Baltic herring with high thiaminase activity, possibly linked to their health. Thiaminase activity of the gastrointestinal contents of Baltic salmon, feeding almost entirely on Baltic herring in the GB, was significantly higher than for Baltic salmon feeding on both Baltic herring and sprat in the GF. Therefore, Baltic herring may be the major source of thiaminase for Baltic salmon. A tank experiment demonstrated that thiaminase activity in Baltic herring may vary, even within very short time periods. The results were consistent with the hypothesis that the thiaminase content in Baltic salmon forage fish may be an important link in the aetiology of the thiamine deficiency syndrome, M74, in Baltic salmon.     

Human-induced Trophic Cascades and Ecological Regime Shifts in the Baltic Sea

Abstract The ecosystems of coastal and enclosed seas are under increasing anthropogenic pressure worldwide, with Chesapeake Bay, the Gulf of Mexico and the Black and Baltic Seas as well known examples. We use an ecosystem model (Ecopath with Ecosim, EwE) to show that reduced top-down control (seal predation) and increased bottom-up forcing (eutrophication) can largely explain the historical dynamics of the main fish stocks (cod, herring and sprat) in the Baltic Sea between 1900 and 1980. Based on these results and the historical fish stock development we identify two major ecological transitions. A shift from seal to cod domination was caused by a virtual elimination of marine mammals followed by a shift from an oligotrophic to a eutrophic state. A third shift from cod to clupeid domination in the late 1980s has previously been explained by overfishing of cod and climatic changes. We propose that the shift from an oligotrophic to a eutrophic state represents a true regime shift with a stabilizing mechanism for a hysteresis phenomenon. There are also mechanisms that could stabilize the shift from a cod to clupeid dominated ecosystem, but there are no indications that the ecosystem has been pushed that far yet. We argue that the shifts in the Baltic Sea are a consequence of human impacts, although variations in climate may have influenced their timing, magnitude and persistence. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Ecological significance of 0-group fish in the Barents Sea ecosystem

Investigations into the 0-group fish in the Barents Sea have been carried out since 1965, with the goal of estimating the abundance of 0-group fish. 0-group abundance indices have been used in the assessment of the recruitment level and in recruitment variability studies. However, the ecological importance of the 0-group fish in the Barents Sea has been less studied. Although 0-group capelin, herring, cod and haddock are widely distributed in the Barents Sea, the central area seems to be the most important, accounting for approximately 50–80% of the annual biomass. The total biomass of the four most abundant 0-group fish species can be up to 3.3 million tonnes, with an average of 1.3 million tonnes (1993–2009). Wide distribution and high biomass of pelagically distributed 0-group fish make these fishes an important element in the energy transport between different trophic levels and different geographical areas, having a critical impact on the entire Barents Sea ecosystem. In recent years, capelin have shown a pronounced northward shift in biomass distribution, and several successive strong year classes occurred during warm temperature conditions. Cod biomasses were unexpectedly low during warm years and were positively correlated with spawning stock biomass, while the correlation with temperature was not significant. Haddock and herring show, as expected, increasing biomass with increased temperature when the spawning stock is at a sufficiently high level.     

Diatom assemblages in superficial sediments from the Gulf of Riga,eastern Baltic Sea

Twenty one superficial sediment samples from areas of high and moderate eutrophication in the Gulf of Riga were studied with respect to siliceous microfossils, mainly diatoms.The results seem to imply that the number of taxa and the abundance of the frustules are affected by runoff from rivers and the degree of eutrophication in different parts of the Gulf. Areas with high eutrophication, e.g. the river estuaries, have diatom assemblages of varying composition, while in areas with moderate eutrophication the composition is almost constant and the influx of freshwater diatoms and littoral periphyton small. The high abundance and low diversity of brackish-marine and brackish, planktonic diatoms seem to be a result of an influx of nutrients and pollutants in the water and bottom sediments. The sea ice diatoms occurring in the Baltic waters and also in the Gulf of Riga tend to be resistant to eutrophication or are even favoured by it.     

Discovery and characterization of single nucleotide polymorphisms in two anadromous alosine fishes of conservation concern

Freshwater habitat alteration and marine fisheries can affect anadromous fish species, and populations fluctuating in size elicit conservation concern and coordinated management. We describe the development and characterization of two sets of 96 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assays for two species of anadromous alosine fishes, alewife and blueback herring (collectively known as river herring), that are native to the Atlantic coast of North America. We used data from high‐throughput DNA sequencing to discover SNPs and then developed molecular genetic assays for genotyping sets of 96 individual loci in each species. The two sets of assays were validated with multiple populations that encompass both the geographic range and the known regional genetic stocks of both species. The SNP panels developed herein accurately resolved the genetic stock structure for alewife and blueback herring that was previously identified using microsatellites and assigned individuals to regional stock of origin with high accuracy. These genetic markers, which generate data that are easily shared and combined, will greatly facilitate ongoing conservation and management of river herring including genetic assignment of marine caught individuals to stock of origin.     

Spatial and temporal variations in parasite prevalence and infracommunity structure in herring (Clupea harengus L.) caught to the west of the British Isles and in the North and Baltic Seas: implications for fisheries science

Herring Clupea harengus L. viscera were examined for endoparasitic infections as part of a multidisciplinary stock identification project (WESTHER, EU Contract no. Q5RS-2002-01 056) which applied a range of stock discrimination techniques to the same individual fishes to obtain comparable results for multivariate analysis. Spawning and non-spawning adults, and juvenile herring were caught, over 3 years, by commercial and research vessels from numerous locations to the west of the UK and Ireland, along with control samples of spawning fish from the eastern Baltic Sea, and juveniles from sites in the eastern and western North Sea, and the north of Norway. The metacercariae of two renicolid digeneans (Cercaria pythionike and Cercaria doricha), one larval nematode (Anisakis simplex s.s.) and one larval cestode (Lacistorhynchus tenuis) were selected as tag species. Results were compared with those from herring collected between 1973 and 1982, which suggested remarkable stability in the parasite fauna of herring in the study area. These species were used to compare the parasite infracommunities of spawning herring. A significant variation in infracommunity structure was observed between different spawning grounds. These results suggest that the parasite fauna of herring are spatially variable but remain temporally stable in both the short and long term. Significant differences in prevalence and abundance of infections and comparisons of parasite infracommunity enabled the separation of putative herring stocks west of the British Isles. Distinctive patterns of parasite infection in two different spawning groups off the north coast of Scotland suggest that this area is occupied by two spawning populations, one recruiting from the west of Scotland, the other from outside this area, and most likely from the eastern North Sea. The distribution patterns of L. tenuis, C. doricha and C. pythionike suggest the potential for fish that spawn in three distinct International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES) management units to be present in mixed aggregations found over the Malin Shelf, with significant implications for management in this area.     

Factors controlling long-term changes of the eutrophicated ecosystem of Pärnu Bay,Gulf of Riga

Phytoplankton, mesozooplankton, mysids and fish larvae were studied during 15–29 annual cycles measured weekly to monthly in Pärnu Bay, the Gulf of Riga. The monthly variability of the biological data was related to temperature, ice conditions, salinity, influx of nutrients, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, cloudiness and solar activity. Phytoplankton development was mainly a function of the NAO index. For the whole study period the abundance of zooplankton increased with increasing water temperature and solar activity. Significant correlations between phytoplankton and zooplankton densities were found until 1990. After the invasion of the predatory cladoceran Cercopagis pengoi in 1991, the zooplankton community was likely to be regulated by the introduced species rather than phytoplankton dynamics. The increased abundances of rotifers and copepods triggered the increase in mysid densities. The development of herring larvae was positively affected by the high density of copepods and rotifers but also by increased eutrophication. Until 1990 there was no significant relationship between the density of zooplankton and herring larvae. A negative relationship between the density of zooplankton and herring larvae in the 1990s suggests that the major shift in zooplankton community resulted in food limitation for herring larvae. The results indicated that (1) atmospheric processes in the northern Atlantic explain a large part of the interannual variation of the local phytoplankton stock, (2) trophic interactions control the development of pelagic communities at higher trophic levels, and (3) the introduction of an effective intermediate predator has repercussions for the whole pelagic food web in Pärnu Bay.     

Stock collapse and its effect on species interactions: Cod and herring in the Norwegian‐Barents Seas system as an example

Both the Norwegian Spring Spawning herring (Clupea harengus) and the Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod (Gadus morhua) are examples of strong stock reduction and decline of the associated fisheries due to overfishing followed by a recovery. Cod and herring are both part of the Barents Sea ecosystem, which has experienced major warming events in the early (1920–1940) and late 20th century. While the collapse or near collapse of these stocks seems to be linked to an instability created by overfishing and climate, the difference of population dynamics before and after is not fully understood. In particular, it is unclear how the changes in population dynamics before and after the collapses are associated with biotic interactions. The combination of the availability of unique long‐term time series for herring and cod makes it a well‐suited study system to investigate the effects of collapse. We examine how species interactions may differently affect the herring and cod population dynamic before and after a collapse. Particularly we explore, using a GAM modeling approach, how herring could affect cod and vice versa. We found that the effect of cod biomass on herring that was generally positive (i.e., covariation) but the effect became negative after the collapse (i.e., predation or competition). Likewise a change occurred for the cod, the juvenile herring biomass that had no effect before the collapse had a negative effect after. Our results indicate that the population collapses may alter the inter‐specific interactions and response to abiotic environmental changes. While the stocks are at similar abundance levels before and after the collapses, the system is potentially different in its functioning and may require different management action.     

Feeding ecology of pelagic fish species in the Gulf of Riga (Baltic Sea): the importance of changes in the zooplankton community

The feeding ecology of four pelagic fish species was studied in relation to their prey availability in the Gulf of Riga (Baltic Sea) during the summer 1999-2006. The zooplankton community was dominated by the cladoceran Bosmina longispina, rotifers Keratella cochlearis and K. quadrata and the copepod Eurytemora affinis, with the highest interannual variability in abundance recorded for B. longispina. The last influenced the diet of adult sprat Sprattus sprattus, juvenile smelt Osmerus eperlanus and three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus as these were strongly selecting for B. longispina. The fish feeding activity did not match the abundance dynamics of their preferred prey, suggesting that fishes may switch to consume other prey in case the preferred diet was limited. A considerable dietary overlap indicated high potential competition between pelagic fish species. While herring Clupea harengus membras and G. aculeatus were relying on very different food, the diets of young O. eperlanus and G. aculeatus were very similar. Interannual variability in zooplankton composition and abundance significantly affected the diet composition of fishes, but those changes were insufficient to exert a consistent influence upon fish feeding activity and total amounts of zooplankton consumed.     

Distribution, sex ratio and growth of Carassius gibelio (Bloch) in coastal and inland waters of Estonia (north-eastern Baltic Sea)

Gibel carp Carassius gibelio (Bloch) was first introduced into fish ponds and small lakes of Estonia in 1948–49, and first detected in Estonian brackish waters (Gulf of Riga) in 1985. Since the mid‐1990s, the species has spread along the entire Estonian Baltic coastline. Growth rate in the brackish water population does not differ much from freshwater populations, but the freshwater populations are gynogenetic (or show high dominance of females) in contrast to the Baltic Sea population, which presents a normal sex ratio. The recent explosion of this species in the Baltic Sea could be explained by unusually warm summers during the 1990s and by the low abundance of predatory fish.     

Mitochondrial and nuclear DNA analyses reveal fine scale geographic structure in bottlenose dolphins (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Tursiops truncatus</Emphasis>) in the Gulf of Mexico

There is a need for biological information to support current stock designations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Gulf of Mexico. The existence of many inshore, resident “communities” raises questions as to the relationship these dolphins may hold with dolphins inhabiting neighboring inshore and coastal areas. In this study, population subdivision was examined among four resident, inshore bottlenose dolphin stocks (Sarasota Bay, FL, Tampa Bay, FL, Charlotte Harbor, FL and Matagorda Bay, TX) and one coastal stock (1–12 km offshore) in the Gulf of Mexico. Evidence of significant population structure among all areas was found on the basis of both mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequence data and nine nuclear microsatellite loci. Estimates of relatedness showed no population contained a significantly high number of related individuals, while separate AMOVAs for males and females indicated that both sexes exhibit a significant level of site philopatry. Results presented here provide the first genetic evidence of population subdivision between the coastal Gulf of Mexico and adjacent inshore areas along the central west coast of Florida. Such strong genetic subdivision is surprising given the short geographical distance between many of these areas and the lack of obvious geographic barriers to prevent gene flow. These findings support the current, separate identification of stocks for bottlenose dolphins inhabiting the eastern coastal and inshore areas of the Gulf of Mexico.