DOES INCREASED MORTALITY FAVOR THE EVOLUTION OF MORE RAPID SENESCENCE?

It is widely believed (following the 1957 hypothesis of G. C. Williams) that greater rates of “extrinsic” (age- and condition-independent) mortality favor more rapid senescence. However, a recent analysis of mammalian life tables failed to find a significant correlation between minimum adult mortality rate and the rate of senescence. This article presents a simple theoretical analysis of how extrinsic mortality should affect the rate of senescence (i.e., the rate at which probability of mortality increases with age) under different evolutionary and population dynamical assumptions. If population dynamics are density independent, extrinsic mortality should not alter the senescence rate favored by natural selection. If population growth is density dependent and populations are stable, the effect of extrinsic mortality depends on the age specificity of the density dependence and on whether survival or reproduction (or both) are functions of density. It is possible that higher extrinsic mortality will increase the rate of senescence at all ages, decrease the rate at all ages, or increase it at some ages while decreasing it at others. Williams's hypothesis is most likely to be supported when density dependence acts primarily on fertility and does not differentially decrease the fertilities of older individuals. Patterns contrary to Williams's prediction are possible when density dependence acts primarily on the survival or fertility of later ages or when most variation in mortality rates is due to variation in nonextrinsic mortality.     

How Stochasticity Influences Leading Indicators of Critical Transitions

Many complex systems exhibit critical transitions. Of considerable interest are bifurcations, small smooth changes in underlying drivers that produce abrupt shifts in system state. Before reaching the bifurcation point, the system gradually loses stability (‘critical slowing down’). Signals of critical slowing down may be detected through measurement of summary statistics, but how extrinsic and intrinsic noises influence statistical patterns prior to a transition is unclear. Here, we consider a range of stochastic models that exhibit transcritical, saddle-node and pitchfork bifurcations. Noise was assumed to be either intrinsic or extrinsic. We derived expressions for the stationary variance, autocorrelation and power spectrum for all cases. Trends in summary statistics signaling the approach of each bifurcation depend on the form of noise. For example, models with intrinsic stochasticity may predict an increase in or a decline in variance as the bifurcation parameter changes, whereas models with extrinsic noise applied additively predict an increase in variance. The ability to classify trends of summary statistics for a broad class of models enhances our understanding of how critical slowing down manifests in complex systems approaching a transition.     

Malaria ecology,child mortality & fertility

The broad determinants of fertility are thought to be reasonably well identified by demographers, though the detailed quantitative drivers of fertility levels and changes are less well understood. This paper uses a novel ecological index of malaria transmission to study the effect of child mortality on fertility. We find that temporal variation in the ecology of the disease is well-correlated to mortality, and pernicious malaria conditions lead to higher fertility rates. We then argue that most of this effect occurs through child mortality, and estimate the effect of child mortality changes on fertility. Our findings add to the literature on disease and fertility, and contribute to the suggestive evidence that child mortality reductions have a causal effect on fertility changes.     

Dynamics of Weeds in the Soil Seed Bank: A Hidden Markov Model to Estimate Life History Traits from Standing Plant Time Series

Predicting the population dynamics of annual plants is a challenge due to their hidden seed banks in the field. However, such predictions are highly valuable for determining management strategies, specifically in agricultural landscapes. In agroecosystems, most weed seeds survive during unfavourable seasons and persist for several years in the seed bank. This causes difficulties in making accurate predictions of weed population dynamics and life history traits (LHT). Consequently, it is very difficult to identify management strategies that limit both weed populations and species diversity. In this article, we present a method of assessing weed population dynamics from both standing plant time series data and an unknown seed bank. We use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to obtain estimates of over 3,080 botanical records for three major LHT: seed survival in the soil, plant establishment (including post-emergence mortality), and seed production of 18 common weed species. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches were complementarily used to estimate LHT values. The results showed that the LHT provided by the HMM enabled fairly accurate estimates of weed populations in different crops. There was a positive correlation between estimated germination rates and an index of the specialisation to the crop type (IndVal). The relationships between estimated LHTs and that between the estimated LHTs and the ecological characteristics of weeds provided insights into weed strategies. For example, a common strategy to cope with agricultural practices in several weeds was to produce less seeds and increase germination rates. This knowledge, especially of LHT for each type of crop, should provide valuable information for developing sustainable weed management strategies.     

Extrinsic Mortality Effects on Reproductive Strategies in a Caribbean Community

Extrinsic mortality is a key influence on organisms’ life history strategies, especially on age at maturity. This historical longitudinal study of 125 women in rural Domenica examines effects of extrinsic mortality on human age at maturity and pace of reproduction. Extrinsic mortality is indicated by local population infant mortality rates during infancy and at maturity between the years 1925 and 2000. Extrinsic mortality shows effects on age at first birth and pace of reproduction among these women. Parish death records show huge historical variation in age-specific mortality rates. The infant mortality rate (IMR) in the early 1920s was low, increased dramatically beginning in 1929, and reached a maximum in the 1950s, at which point IMR declined steadily to its present low rate. The mortality rate early in life showed a quadratic association with age at first birth. Women who experienced conditions of low IMR early in life reproduced relatively late in life. Those born into moderately high levels of infant mortality tended to reproduce earlier than those born at low levels. At very high infant mortality levels early in life, women went on to delay reproduction until relatively late, possibly as a result of somatic depletion and energetic stress associated with the conditions that lead to high IMR. Population mortality rates at age of maturity also showed a quadratic association with age at first birth. The pace of reproduction, estimated as number of surviving offspring controlled for maternal age, showed a similar quadratic effect. There were complex interactions between population mortality rates in infancy and at maturity. When extrinsic mortality was high during infancy, extrinsic mortality later in life had little effect on timing of first birth. When extrinsic mortality was low to moderate in infancy, extrinsic mortality later in life had significant effects on adult reproduction. I speculate that these effects are mediated through development of personality facets associated with reproduction.     

Patterns of age-specific means and genetic variances of mortality rates predicted by the mutation-accumulation theory of ageing

A general quantitative genetic model of mutations with age-specific deleterious effects is developed. It is shown that, for the simplest case of a species with age-independent reproductive rates and extrinsic adult mortality rates, and no pleiotropic effects of age-specific mutations, exponential increases with age of both the mean and additive genetic variance of age-specific mortality rates are expected. Models where age-specific mutations have pleiotropic effects on mortality that extend either throughout adult life, or are confined to juvenile stages, produce equilibria with exponential increases in the mean and additive variance of mortality rates during much of adult life. However, the rates of increase diminish late in life, and can even become zero. Predictions concerning the additive genetic correlations in mortality rates between different ages are also developed. The predictions of the models are compared with data on humans and Drosophila.     

Determinants of infant mortality and representation in bioarchaeological samples: A review

In bioarchaeological contexts, a complex relationship exists between infant representation in the age-at-death distribution, gestational and young child mortality rates, and the total fertility rate. The representation of infants in a skeletal sample may be influenced by a range of social, biological, and archaeological factors. To better understand the interactions between representation, fertility, and mortality, this study evaluates the relationship between infant-juvenile age-at-death proportions, fertility rates, and a range of gestational and early childhood mortality measures. The statistical component of this study found the correlation between fertility rates and infant-juvenile proportions was stronger than with any mortality rate variable of interest. This suggests that the proportion of infants in a mortuary sample is a stronger indicator of fertility than it is of infant-juvenile mortality. Social, biological, and archaeological variables potentially influencing infant representation in skeletal samples are discussed and a strongly contextualized and holistic approach to infant and juvenile mortality is recommended.     

Population based study of rates of multiple pregnancies in Denmark, 1980-94.

OBJECTIVE: To study trends in multiple pregnancies not explained by changes in maternal age and parity patterns. DESIGN: Trends in population based figures for multiple pregnancies in Denmark studied from complete national records on parity history and vital status. POPULATION: 497,979 Danish women and 803,019 pregnancies, 1980-94. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: National rates of multiple pregnancies, infant mortality, and stillbirths controlled for maternal age and parity. Special emphasis on primiparous women > or = 30 years of age, who are most likely to undergo fertility treatment. RESULTS: The national incidence of multiple pregnancies increased 1.7-fold during 1980-94, the increase primarily in 1989-94 and almost exclusively in primiparous women aged > or = 30 years, for whom the adjusted population based twinning rate increased 2.7-fold and the triplet rate 9.1-fold. During 1989-94, the adjusted yearly increase in multiple pregnancies for these women was 19% (95% confidence interval 16% to 21%) and in dizygotic twin pregnancies 25% (21% to 28%). The proportion of multiple births among infant deaths in primiparous women > or = 30 years increased from 11.5% to 26.9% during the study period. The total infant mortality, however, did not increase for these women because of a simultaneous significant decrease in infant mortality among singletons. CONCLUSIONS: A relatively small group of women has drastically changed the overall national rates of multiple pregnancies. The introduction of new treatments to enhance fertility has probably caused these changes and has also affected the otherwise decreasing trend in infant mortality. Consequently, the resources, both economical and otherwise, associated with these treatments go well beyond those invested in specific fertility enhancing treatments.     

Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change

Many diverse infectious diseases exhibit seasonal dynamics. Seasonality in disease incidence has been attributed to seasonal changes in pathogen transmission rates, resulting from fluctuations in extrinsic climate factors. Multi-strain infectious diseases with strain-specific seasonal signatures, such as cholera, indicate that a range of seasonal patterns in transmission rates is possible in identical environments. We therefore consider pathogens capable of evolving their 'seasonal phenotype', a trait that determines the sensitivity of their transmission rates to environmental variability. We introduce a theoretical framework, based on adaptive dynamics, for predicting the evolution of disease dynamics in seasonal environments. Changes in the seasonality of environmental factors are one important avenue for the effects of climate change on disease. This model also provides a framework for examining these effects on pathogen evolution and associated disease dynamics. An application of this approach gives an explanation for the recent cholera strain replacement in Bangladesh, based on changes in monsoon rainfall patterns.     

Metabolic rate is negatively linked to adult survival but does not explain latitudinal differences in songbirds

Survival rates vary dramatically among species and predictably across latitudes, but causes of this variation are unclear. The rate‐of‐living hypothesis posits that physiological damage from metabolism causes species with faster metabolic rates to exhibit lower survival rates. However, whether increased survival commonly observed in tropical and south temperate latitudes is associated with slower metabolic rate remains unclear. We compared metabolic rates and annual survival rates that we measured across 46 species, and from literature data across 147 species of birds in northern, southern and tropical latitudes. High metabolic rates were associated with lower survival but survival varied substantially among latitudinal regions independent of metabolism. The inability of metabolic rate to explain latitudinal variation in survival suggests (1) species may evolve physiological mechanisms that mitigate physiological damage from cellular metabolism and (2) extrinsic rather than intrinsic sources of mortality are the primary causes of latitudinal differences in survival.     

The life-history trade-off between fertility and child survival

Evolutionary models of human reproduction argue that variation in fertility can be understood as the local optimization of a life-history trade-off between offspring quantity and ‘quality’. Child survival is a fundamental dimension of quality in these models as early-life mortality represents a crucial selective bottleneck in human evolution. This perspective is well-rehearsed, but current literature presents mixed evidence for a trade-off between fertility and child survival, and little empirical ground to evaluate how socioecological and individual characteristics influence the benefits of fertility limitation. By compiling demographic survey data, we demonstrate robust negative relationships between fertility and child survival across 27 sub-Saharan African countries. Our analyses suggest this relationship is primarily accounted for by offspring competition for parental investment, rather than by reverse causal mechanisms. We also find that the trade-off increases in relative magnitude as national mortality declines and maternal somatic (height) and extrasomatic (education) capital increase. This supports the idea that socioeconomic development, and associated reductions in extrinsic child mortality, favour reduced fertility by increasing the relative returns to parental investment. Observed fertility, however, falls considerably short of predicted optima for maximizing total offspring survivorship, strongly suggesting that additional unmeasured costs of reproduction ultimately constrain the evolution of human family size.     

Mortality,fertility, and the OY ratio in a model hunter–gatherer system

An agent‐based model (ABM) is used to explore how the ratio of old to young adults (the OY ratio) in a sample of dead individuals is related to aspects of mortality, fertility, and longevity experienced by the living population from which the sample was drawn. The ABM features representations of rules, behaviors, and constraints that affect person‐ and household‐level decisions about marriage, reproduction, and infant mortality in hunter–gatherer systems. The demographic characteristics of the larger model system emerge through human‐level interactions playing out in the context of “global” parameters that can be adjusted to produce a range of mortality and fertility conditions. Model data show a relationship between the OY ratios of living populations (the living OY ratio) and assemblages of dead individuals drawn from those populations (the dead OY ratio) that is consistent with that from empirically known ethnographic hunter–gatherer cases. The dead OY ratio is clearly related to the mean ages, mean adult mortality rates, and mean total fertility rates experienced by living populations in the model. Sample size exerts a strong effect on the accuracy with which the calculated dead OY ratio reflects the actual dead OY ratio of the complete assemblage. These results demonstrate that the dead OY ratio is a potentially useful metric for paleodemographic analysis of changes in mortality and mean age, and suggest that, in general, hunter–gatherer populations with higher mortality, higher fertility, and lower mean ages are characterized by lower dead OY ratios. Am J Phys Anthropol 154:222–231, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Regional variations and trends in mortality from cardiovascular diseases in population aged 0-64 in Dalmatia and Slavonia, 1998-2009

The aim of this paper was to analyse the regional variations and trends in mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the population aged 0-64 years in Dalmatia and Slavonia, over the period 1998 to 2009. Mortality data were derived from Central Bureau of Statistics. The results show that age-standardized mortality rates from total cardiovascular diseases, ischaemic heart diseases and cerebrovascular diseases were lower in Dalmatia than rates for Slavonia, for both genders. All mortality rates, except rates for ischaemic heart diseases mortality for men in both regions, showed the trend of decline. Dalmatia has a more protective factors in pattern of Mediterranean diet. The improvement of cardiovascular health and reduction of premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases requires a system and comprehensive intervention approach at all levels of health care and multisectorial coordination.     

Lifetime reproductive output: individual stochasticity,variance, and sensitivity analysis

Lifetime reproductive output (LRO) determines per-generation growth rates, establishes criteria for population growth or decline, and is an important component of fitness. Empirical measurements of LRO reveal high variance among individuals. This variance may result from genuine heterogeneity in individual properties, or from individual stochasticity, the outcome of probabilistic demographic events during the life cycle. To evaluate the extent of individual stochasticity requires the calculation of the statistics of LRO from a demographic model. Mean LRO is routinely calculated (as the net reproductive rate), but the calculation of variances has only recently received attention. Here, we present a complete, exact, analytical, closed-form solution for all the moments of LRO, for age- and stage-classified populations. Previous studies have relied on simulation, iterative solutions, or closed-form analytical solutions that capture only part of the sources of variance. We also present the sensitivity and elasticity of all of the statistics of LRO to parameters defining survival, stage transitions, and (st)age-specific fertility. Selection can operate on variance in LRO only if the variance results from genetic heterogeneity. The potential opportunity for selection is quantified by Crow’s index \(\mathcal {I}\), the ratio of the variance to the square of the mean. But variance due to individual stochasticity is only an apparent opportunity for selection. In a comparison of a range of age-classified models for human populations, we find that proportional increases in mortality have very small effects on the mean and variance of LRO, but large positive effects on \(\mathcal {I}\). Proportional increases in fertility increase both the mean and variance of LRO, but reduce \(\mathcal {I}\). For a size-classified tree population, the elasticity of both mean and variance of LRO to stage-specific mortality are negative; the elasticities to stage-specific fertility are positive.     

Ethical models underpinning responses to threats to public health: a comparison of approaches to communicable disease control in Europe

Increases in international travel and migratory flows have enabled infectious diseases to emerge and spread more rapidly than ever before. Hence, it is increasingly easy for local infectious diseases to become global infectious diseases (GIDs). National governments must be able to react quickly and effectively to GIDs, whether naturally occurring or intentionally instigated by bioterrorism. According to the World Health Organisation, global partnerships are necessary to gather the most up-to-date information and to mobilize resources to tackle GIDs when necessary. Communicable disease control also depends upon national public health laws and policies. The containment of an infectious disease typically involves detection, notification, quarantine and isolation of actual or suspected cases; the protection and monitoring of those not infected; and possibly even treatment. Some measures are clearly contentious and raise conflicts between individual and societal interests. In Europe national policies against infectious diseases are very heterogeneous. Some countries have a more communitarian approach to public health ethics, in which the interests of individual and society are more closely intertwined and interdependent, while others take a more liberal approach and give priority to individual freedoms in communicable disease control. This paper provides an overview of the different policies around communicable disease control that exist across a select number of countries across Europe. It then proposes ethical arguments to be considered in the making of public health laws, mostly concerning their effectiveness for public health protection.     

Repeated intraspecific divergence in life span and aging of African annual fishes along an aridity gradient

Life span and aging are substantially modified by natural selection. Across species, higher extrinsic (environmentally related) mortality (and hence shorter life expectancy) selects for the evolution of more rapid aging. However, among populations within species, high extrinsic mortality can lead to extended life span and slower aging as a consequence of condition‐dependent survival. Using within‐species contrasts of eight natural populations of Nothobranchius fishes in common garden experiments, we demonstrate that populations originating from dry regions (with short life expectancy) had shorter intrinsic life spans and a greater increase in mortality with age, more pronounced cellular and physiological deterioration (oxidative damage, tumor load), and a faster decline in fertility than populations from wetter regions. This parallel intraspecific divergence in life span and aging was not associated with divergence in early life history (rapid growth, maturation) or pace‐of‐life syndrome (high metabolic rates, active behavior). Variability across four study species suggests that a combination of different aging and life‐history traits conformed with or contradicted the predictions for each species. These findings demonstrate that variation in life span and functional decline among natural populations are linked, genetically underpinned, and can evolve relatively rapidly.     

Effects of Extrinsic Mortality on the Evolution of Aging: A Stochastic Modeling Approach

The evolutionary theories of aging are useful for gaining insights into the complex mechanisms underlying senescence. Classical theories argue that high levels of extrinsic mortality should select for the evolution of shorter lifespans and earlier peak fertility. Non-classical theories, in contrast, posit that an increase in extrinsic mortality could select for the evolution of longer lifespans. Although numerous studies support the classical paradigm, recent data challenge classical predictions, finding that high extrinsic mortality can select for the evolution of longer lifespans. To further elucidate the role of extrinsic mortality in the evolution of aging, we implemented a stochastic, agent-based, computational model. We used a simulated annealing optimization approach to predict which model parameters predispose populations to evolve longer or shorter lifespans in response to increased levels of predation. We report that longer lifespans evolved in the presence of rising predation if the cost of mating is relatively high and if energy is available in excess. Conversely, we found that dramatically shorter lifespans evolved when mating costs were relatively low and food was relatively scarce. We also analyzed the effects of increased predation on various parameters related to density dependence and energy allocation. Longer and shorter lifespans were accompanied by increased and decreased investments of energy into somatic maintenance, respectively. Similarly, earlier and later maturation ages were accompanied by increased and decreased energetic investments into early fecundity, respectively. Higher predation significantly decreased the total population size, enlarged the shared resource pool, and redistributed energy reserves for mature individuals. These results both corroborate and refine classical predictions, demonstrating a population-level trade-off between longevity and fecundity and identifying conditions that produce both classical and non-classical lifespan effects.     

Characterizing the epidemiological transition in Mexico: national and subnational burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors

Background

Rates of diseases and injuries and the effects of their risk factors can have substantial subnational heterogeneity, especially in middle-income countries like Mexico. Subnational analysis of the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors can improve characterization of the epidemiological transition and identify policy priorities.

Methods and Findings

We estimated deaths and loss of healthy life years (measured in disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) in 2004 from a comprehensive list of diseases and injuries, and 16 major risk factors, by sex and age for Mexico and its states. Data sources included the vital statistics, national censuses, health examination surveys, and published epidemiological studies. Mortality statistics were adjusted for underreporting, misreporting of age at death, and for misclassification and incomparability of cause-of-death assignment. Nationally, noncommunicable diseases caused 75% of total deaths and 68% of total DALYs, with another 14% of deaths and 18% of DALYs caused by undernutrition and communicable, maternal, and perinatal diseases. The leading causes of death were ischemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus, cerebrovascular disease, liver cirrhosis, and road traffic injuries. High body mass index, high blood glucose, and alcohol use were the leading risk factors for disease burden, causing 5.1%, 5.0%, and 7.3% of total burden of disease, respectively. Mexico City had the lowest mortality rates (4.2 per 1,000) and the Southern region the highest (5.0 per 1,000); under-five mortality in the Southern region was nearly twice that of Mexico City. In the Southern region undernutrition and communicable, maternal, and perinatal diseases caused 23% of DALYs; in Chiapas, they caused 29% of DALYs. At the same time, the absolute rates of noncommunicable disease and injury burdens were highest in the Southern region (105 DALYs per 1,000 population versus 97 nationally for noncommunicable diseases; 22 versus 19 for injuries).

Conclusions

Mexico is at an advanced stage in the epidemiologic transition, with the majority of the disease and injury burden from noncommunicable diseases. A unique characteristic of the epidemiological transition in Mexico is that overweight and obesity, high blood glucose, and alcohol use are responsible for larger burden of disease than other noncommunicable disease risks such as tobacco smoking. The Southern region is least advanced in the epidemiological transition and suffers from the largest burden of ill health in all disease and injury groups.     

Human fertility and land tenure in highland Bolivia

Basic demographic data of landless and landed peasants from the highlands and valley of Northern Potosi, Bolivia, are compared. Household size and crude birth rates are larger in the highlands than in the valley. Within the highland population, no statistically significant difference was observed between the age-specific fertility of landless and landed women, nor in the survivorship ratio of their offspring. The prevalence of exchange and reciprocity at the village level may be responsible for the absence of important differences in the fertility and mortality patterns of the landed and the landless. Information was obtained from a total of 333 households, which included a population of about 1700 people or 20% of the Jukumani ayllu (ethnic group). No relationship between altitude and human reproduction was noted among Jukumanis. Highland Jukumani women begin reproducing in their late teens; by their mid-20s only about 30% of the 21-25 year old female cohort remains childless. 2 major tax categories of people emerge in the area under consideration: taseros, the landed peasantry who are obligated to pay taxes, and kantu runas, the landless laborers who do not pay taxes. Tasero women are most fertile from their mid-20s until their mid-30s whild kantu runa women are more fertile later in life. Within the highland territory there are no statistically significant differences in the infant and child mortality patterns of taseros and kantu runas. The higher household size and crude birth rates of highlanders suggests that hypoxic stress may not depress fertility. Taseros and kantu runas differ in fertility patterns in degree rather than in kind. It is concluded that although differential access to natural resources may translate into slightly higher crude birth rates and child/woman ratios, it does not have much bearing on the fertility of women, or the mortality or household size of taxpayers and kantu runas. A possible explanation for the Jukumani anomaly may be the prevalence of reciprocity and exchange between taseros and kantu runas, especially relating to land access and physical care.     

Health transition: examples from the western Pacific.

The Industrial Revolution ushered in a rapid transition from agriculture to industrialization. Some biological effects of this transition included increasing life expectancy, reduced infant mortality, and some decline in fertility. Reduced infant mortality first brought about an increase in life expectancy, but as humans were able to control infectious diseases, child and adult mortality also decreased. Now, accidents and chronic diseases are responsible for most mortality in many age groups. This shift from infectious diseases to accidents and chronic diseases is called the health transition. Japan and US are Pacific Basin countries which have relatively high life expectancy and low infant mortality (1988, 75.54 years vs. 71.38 years, and 4.4 vs. 9.9, respectively). These figures suggest that these countries rather advanced in the health transition. Japan may have better life expectancy than the US because of the effect of environmental factors, ethnic diversity, and health care differentials by social class on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality. China and Thailand hold intermediate positions (67.98 years (1985-1990) vs. 63.82 years (1985-1986), and 32.4 vs. 39, respectively). Some research indicates that urban conditions and factory work increase the cardiovascular disease risk among the Chinese. Recent research suggests that access to immunization and modern medical care for acute disease are the only critical variables of the health transition rather than other variables. Papua New Guinea is not progressing very well (53.18 years and 58). Papua New Guinea has not yet been able to control infectious diseases, especially malaria. This comparison illustrates that populations progress through the health transition at different rates.