Bayesian modeling of the evolution of male height in 18th century Finland from incomplete data

Data on army recruits’ height are frequently available and can be used to analyze the economics and welfare of the population in different periods of history. However, such data are not a random sample from the whole population at the time of interest, but instead is skewed since the short men were less likely to be recruited. In statistical terms this means that the data are left-truncated. Although truncation is well-understood in statistics a further complication is that the truncation threshold is not known, may vary from time to time, and auxiliary information on the threshold is not at our disposal.The advantage of the fully Bayesian approach presented here is that both the population height distribution and the truncation are modeled simultaneously. The truncation threshold is allowed to be random and time-specific whilst the height distribution is assumed to change smoothly in time. Thus, in addition to the population height characteristics, we obtain also insight into recruiting criteria over time.Analysis of historical data from Swedish army recruitment in eight time events between 1768 and 1804 has found a declining trend in the mean population height during the inspected time period and also dramatic systematic changes in the recruiting.     

20th century vegetation changes in an island archipelago, SW Finland

We studied the long-term changes in the flora in the archipelago of SW Finland by comparing historic plant species lists from 331 islands surveyed in the 1930s to 1940s, to lists compiled in 1996–2004. We used plants as indicators to indirectly detect changes in the environment based on changes in species frequencies. Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) was used to examine if there was a change in species composition during this 60–70 yr period. More species increased in frequency (180, 31.1%) than decreased (77, 13.6%). The number of species occurrences increased by 10.6%. Species of shores, mires, wetlands, and woods increased, while species of shore meadows, pastures, and heaths decreased. For the non-shore species the interpretation of the DCA and the comparisons of plant indicator values between the old and the new data indicate lower cultural impact, decreased light conditions, a higher level of moisture and nitrogen, and a higher proportion of perennials on the new data islands. The shore plants indicate that productivity has increased over the study period, probably reflecting the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea.     

Plant phenological records in northern Finland since the 18th century as retrieved from databases, archives and diaries for biometeorological research

Plant phenological data from northern Finland, compiled from several sources, were examined as potential biometeorological indicators of climate change since the 18th century. A common feature of individual series was their sporadic nature. In addition to waning enthusiasm, wartime hardships and crop failures had caused gaps in recording observations during the 18th and 19th centuries. The present study’s challenge was to combine separate records, as retrieved from several historical archives and personal diaries, into a single continuous series. To avoid possible biases due to the variability of data availability each year, each phenomenon-specific mean series was transformed into normalized site-specific index series. These series were compared to each other and to a regional instrumental temperature series (years 1802–2011). The inter-phenomena correlations were high. Moreover, a strong biometeorological response of the phenological series, most especially to monthly mean temperature in May, and seasonally to the April through June temperatures, was identified. This response focused on slightly later spring months compared to the responses in an earlier study conducted for southern Finland. The findings encouraged us to compute a total phenological index series as an average of all available phenomenon-specific index series for northern Finland. The earliest phenological springs were found as a cluster in the recent end of the record, whereas the anomalously-late phenological spring could be found through the centuries. This finding could indicate that potential future warming could result in an earlier onset of phenological springs (i.e. as experienced by the plants), with a remaining possibility of late phenological springs. To conclude, it was shown that the indices are reliable biometeorological indicators of the April through June temperature variations and thus of the climate variability in the region.     

Iatrogenic molar borings in 18th and early 19th century Native American dentitions

Six iatrogenic dental borings were identified in four individuals of a Native American skeletal collection from an 18th and early 19th century Middle Columbia River burial site. The borings, all in maxillary first molars with severe dental attrition and secondary dentin, demonstrate striated walls and associated periapical alveolar lesions. An ethnographic review of the subsistence pattern during the burial period indicates a diet that is consistent in dental attrition with other riverine fisher-hunter-gathers. Histological changes of dental pulp tissue during the process of attrition may result in dental necrosis. Access into the pulp chamber is a technique used to drain necrotic fluid. A common Euro-American therapeutic dental practice of the 18th and 19th centuries for diseases of the pulp was dental extraction. Multiple dental borings indicate that the practice of molar drilling into the pulp chamber was an effective and independent technique used by the Wishram and Wasco people.     

Age-dependent cortical bone loss in women from 18th and early 19th century London

Age-dependent cortical bone loss was investigated in an earlier British population. The study sample comprised female skeletons from the 18th/19th century crypt at Christ Church, Spitalfields, London. Bone loss was monitored using metacarpal radiogrammetry. Age at death was known exactly from coffin plates. Results indicated that peak cortical thickness was less than in modern subjects. Continuing periosteal apposition was evident throughout adulthood, and the rate of increase in metacarpal diameter resembled that in modern subjects. Bone loss from the endosteal surface was evident from the fifth decade onwards, and this outstripped the rate of subperiosteal gain so that there was a net loss of cortical bone with age. Cortical bone loss occurred at a similar rate to that in modern subjects. In contrast to modern populations, there was no evidence that loss of cortical bone was associated with increased propensity to fracture. The present results, together with those previously published for a British medieval skeletal assemblage, suggest that patterns of cortical bone loss in women have remained unchanged over at least the last millennium in Britain. Given the great changes in lifestyle which have occurred during this period, this suggests that lifestyle factors may be rather less important than is sometimes asserted in influencing the severity of osteoporosis, at least as far as loss of cortical bone is concerned.     

The main trends in the palaeodemography of the 7th-18th century population of Latvia

The study represents palaeodemographic research of osteological material of 3304 individuals from the funds of the Anthropological Laboratory of the Institute of History of the University of Latvia in Riga, dating from the 7th to the 18th century AD. Compensated life expectancy at birth is varying between 20.3 and 22.2 years during the research period. Crude mortality has changed between 49.3 and 45% per hundred. In the early period (7th-13th century) there is a significant male prevalence (2.2-1.4); female life expectancy at the age of 20 is on average 6.6 years less than for males. This difference decreases to 5.4 years in the 13th-18th century. According to historical demography, female life span exceeded male only in the 2nd half of 19th century. The palaeodemographic data indicate that in the 7th-18th century, women in Latvia gave birth to a mean of 4-5 children (the figure includes childless women), of whom half, at most 2-2.5, reached reproductive age, on account of high child mortality. The net reproductive rate R0 (the number of descendants per individual of the parents' generation) varies between 1 and 1.25 in the study period. Concerning the completely excavated cemeteries of Lejasbiteni (7th-10h century) and Daudziesi (16th-17th century), it was possible to calculate the size and structure of the populations that had used these cemeteries. They were similar, having 45.3-49.9% of children up to an age of 14 and 24-28% individuals over the age of 30. According to historical demography, radical improvement of the demographic situation in Latvia began in the second half of the 19th century, when the process of demographic transition in Latvia started.